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Climate Change and the Mediterranean Region Stéphane Hallegatte Greenhouse gases in the last 10,000 years Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 IPCC, AR4, 2007 Observed climate changes Change in global mean temperature Period Trend 100 years 0.074oC/decade Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 50 years 0.128oC/decade Observed climate changes and impacts Sea level rise Change in snow cover Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 Future climate change at global scale Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 Focus on the Mediterranean Region Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 Modeled change in temperature and precipitations between 1990 and 2100 scenario A1B (median) Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 IPCC, 2007 Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 Impact on water resources From IPCC (2007) Available water in 17/12/2008 2100 vs.1990 Clubresources ViTeCC – Climate change impacts on the Mediterranean Region Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 The Mediterranean region Population 22 countries, 420 millions inhabitants (7% of the world population) 100 millions more inhabitants in 2025, essentially in cities of the southern countries Ageing population in the North, young population in the South Economy 13% of world GDP, decreasing because of Asian growth Average growth rate between 2% in the North and 5% in the South Key sectors for climate change vulnerability Water management Agriculture Energy Urbanism Tourism Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 Water availability 7% of the world population but 3% of water resources Water scarcity even in absence of climate change: 108 millions inhabitants with less than 1000m3/year Up to 165 millions inhabitants in this situation in 2025 Highly heterogeneous water resources: The South has only 13% of the region water resources Rainfall concentrated over a few weeks in winter Frequent summer drought during peak demand Reliance on regulation infrastructure and reservoirs Water demand: about 200 km3/year, in rapid growth: 65% for agriculture 15% for domestic use Tourism and industry Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 Climate change and water stress Number of inhabitants (in millions) living under increased water stress (Arnell, 2005). Colors represent different population scenarios Consequences at macroeconomic scale (agriculture, industry, health, etc.) Specific measures are able to reduce water stress: 1. Demand control (using norms or pricing) 2. User priorities and activity changes (e.g., agriculture) 3. Water reuse 4. New storage and transport infrastructure Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 5. Non-conventional supply (e.g., desalinization) Impacts on agriculture Agriculture is marginal in the North, but central in the South, where it provides livelihood for 70 millions inhabitants and produces up to 15% of GDP Agriculture is mainly rain-fed in the South, with existing stresses due to desertification, soil degradation, water salinization Current deficit in the region agriculture trade balance in spite of productivity gains Without adaptation, yields will decrease in the most of the basin With adaptation, and if water resources are sufficient for increased irrigation, yields can increase in most places Agricultural impacts are directly related to water scarcity Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 Impacts on agriculture Risk of further degradation of the agriculture trade balance Increased food dependency – Issue for food security Rain-fed and food-producing agriculture is particularly vulnerable Shock on small scale farming Possible acceleration of rural-urban migrations Problems to accommodate growing population in cities: Need for massive investments in urban infrastructures Need to provide jobs and housing Economic development is the best adaptation strategy, provided that climate change is taken into account in development plans Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 Urbanism, between adaptation and mitigation Rapidly growing cities in the South, large urban investments Urban forms cannot change rapidly, Unprecedented need to anticipate future constraints and objectives Urban forms matter for greenhouse gas emissions Urban forms matter for climate-change vulnerability Urban forms matter for many other policy objectives, e.g., related to social and spatial inequalities. An unavoidable uncertainty on future emission targets, energy prices, and future local climates: Unprecedented decision-making issues Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 Adapting to one possible climate… Climate analogues in 2070, Hadley Centre Model, SRES A2 After Hallegatte, Ambrosi, Hourcade (2007) We know how to build for the climate of Paris We know how to build for theClub climate of Cordoba ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 But now, we need to build for both climates … and to another… Climate analogues in 2070, Météo-France Model, SRES A2 After Hallegatte, Ambrosi, Hourcade (2007) Future climate are highly uncertain. Adaptation and mitigation decision-making should take Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 into account this uncertainty Future flood risks in Tunis The poorest population and most recent migrants often live in highest-risk areas Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 Energy sector, between mitigation and adaptation The region is heavily dependent on fossil fuels 75% in the North - 95% in the South There is a significant uncertainty on future energy prices: Recoverable fossil fuel reserves Geopolitical situation and strategy of Middle-East producers Climate policy and carbon price Electricity production depends on water availability These uncertainties should be taken into account in the decision making process on energy-consuming investments: Electricity production Urban forms and transportation networks Desalinization Diversification strategy and development of renewable energy Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 (especially solar and wind) Tourism, between mitigation and adaptation Tourism represents 2 to 12% of GDP Climate change will affect the attractiveness of all regions Percent change in the number of tourists after a 1°C global warming. (source : Hamilton et al., 2005). Water resource availability for tourism; Future prices of international transport: Fewer but longer trips? Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008 More tourists from neighboring regions? Conclusions The Mediterranean region will be heavily impacted by climate change during the 21ème century: Climate change could exacerbate existing stresses and inequalities within and among countries Economic development and poverty reduction are very efficient tools to reduction climate change vulnerability, provided that climate change is taken into account in development plans Strategic decisions have to be made in a context of climate and energy risk management Club ViTeCC – 17/12/2008