Download National Climate Change Adaptation Programme

National Adaptation Initiatives:
Challenges and Approaches
Ms Jo Mummery
Assistant Secretary
Land Management and Science Branch
IOCI Living With Our Changing Climate Seminar
15-17 August 2005
Premise:
• Climate change can no longer be considered as some
secondary factor superimposed on other more
important considerations determining economic,
social, and resource development in Australia
• Climate change must now be considered as a
fundamental part of the core operating environment
affecting planning for most aspects of land
management and development
Herein lies the Challenge of Adaptation
The Challenge of Adaptation
• Global climate change science is robust, and uncertainty
associated with timing, nature and quantum of change
– eg little known about likelihood of abrupt or step-wise change
• Regional climate change impacts still poorly specified
– regional downscaling improving
– many uncertainties still with effects on extreme events
• Regional sectoral/integrated impacts even more poorly known
– little known about threshold effects
– paucity of research on interactive effects
• Governments, industries and communities need targeted
information about system resilience & responsiveness
– do we know enough to act?
– how are we to design and support research to address policy
priorities & help us make informed decisions?
Outline of Presentation
• Australian Government’s Initiatives
– Australian Climate Change Science Programme
– National Climate Change Adaptation Programme
– Greenhouse Action in Rural Australia
• National Adaptation Framework
• Concluding Remarks
Australian Climate Change Science Programme
• Govt support, recognising strategic priority of research agenda
– Partnership with CSIRO and BoM, commenced 1989
• Targeted programme 2004-08
– Better understand drivers of Australia’s climate and how
they may change (oceanic carbon uptake & change, aerosols,
terrestrial biosphere carbon flux)
– Maintain world class modelling capacity (AR4, ACCESS)
– Investigate nature of change (next generation projections,
separate from variability, palaeo science, extremes)
– Support Australia’s leadership in Sthn Hem climate science
(international collaboration)
– Contribute to delivery of the National Research Priorities
– Build capacity to support impact assessments
– Communication (Hot Topics, carbon cycle, science status)
The Science is Improving
• Climate modelling
– more comprehensive, reduced uncertainty
Australian leadership in Sthn Ocean (overturning circulation,
Antarctic bottom water formation, sink strength)
• Expanding base of high precision measurements
– Ice cores, sea level rise, atmospheric CO2, data rehab, flux
– Australian systems different
• Probabilistic projections
• Disentangle climate variability and climate change
-
e.g. rainfall decline in SW WA
• Detection & Attribution
-
confidence in detection of greenhouse warming
techniques much improved
• Debate & peer review enhances rigour & confidence
Unprecedented CO2 Change in
History of Our Species
700
Projected
2100
650
Ice Ages
550
500
450
400
Current
350
300
250
200
150
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
Years Before Present
0
CO2 Concentration
600
Science Supporting Adaptation
•
Building a world class climate modelling capacity
–
–
–
–
–
ENSO, Southern Ocean, Indian Ocean Dipole, sea-ice
Interactive carbon-climate
Dynamic vegetation
A new generation of regional climate projections
Downscaling techniques
• Climate variability and extreme events
– Understanding how the drivers of natural variability may change
under enhanced greenhouse conditions – e.g. El Niño events
– The likelihood of increased frequency and intensity of extreme
climate events – drought, floods, tropical cyclones, storm surge, fire
•
The terrestrial carbon cycle
– How will Australia’s biosphere respond: including the role of land
use change and terrestrial carbon sinks, and positive feedbacks
Climate change, climate variability &
extreme events
• Extreme events - effect of
climate change on frequency &
intensity:
– Extreme rainfall and wind events
– Tropical cyclones
– Hail and severe storms
– Sea level events – changes to storm surge events
– Drought – past and future changes in drought
• Climate change and climate variability -
Examining linkages – e.g. changes in monsoon
onset and break periods
Modelled Inundation of Cairns
- Vulnerable to cyclones and storm surges: significant damage to
infrastructure and essential services
– Figure below - storm surge impact on Cairns with doubling of
atmospheric CO2
Current 1-in-100 year storm surge
extent
1-in-100 year storm surge extent
under 2xCO2 conditions
Australian Government Initiatives
- Australian Climate Change Science
Programme
- National Climate Change Adaptation
Programme
- Greenhouse Action in Regional Australia
Programme
National Climate Change
Adaptation Programme
Helping to prepare governments, industries and
communities for the unavoidable consequences of
climate change.
NCCAP…Key Objectives
• Advise Australian Government on policy issues related to
climate change impacts and adaptation, including risks and
opportunities
• Build national capacity to support the development of effective
and targeted adaptation strategies
• Engage key stakeholders and provide targeted and scalerelevant information and tools to industry sectors and regions
• Facilitate recognition of climate change as part of core
operating environment for policy and decision making in
vulnerable sectors/regions
• Close links with the Australian Climate Change Science
Program.
National Climate Change
Adaptation Programme
Policy Advice
Building Adaptation
Capacity
Research
Partnerships
National risk
assessment
Adaptation targeted
guidance eg local gov’t
Sectoral research
Policy co-ordination
and advice
Engaging stakeholders
Regional research
Integrating Comm’th
policies and programs
Developing adaptation
tools
National adaptation
policy
Risk and Vulnerability Report
• Sectors requiring urgent
attention:
– agriculture
– water supply
– settlements and emergency
services
– energy supply and distribution
– biodiversity
• Sectors requiring some
attention:
– tourism, health, fisheries and
forestry
• Regions of high vulnerability
– SW-WA, Great Barrier Reef, SE
Australia, coastal and alpine
regions
Policy advice stream
• Identify risks and opportunities for Australia arising
from climate change and provide advice to Govt on:
– National risk and vulnerability assessment
– Costs of climate change impacts/effects on economy and
markets
– Implications for standard setting
– Assess national demographic and development patterns and
their influence on Australia’s vulnerability
– Implications for long-lived assets/infrastructure and the
insurance industry
– Adaptation capacity and priorities
• Work in partnership to incorporate climate change risk
assessment, impacts and adaptation into key Govt
policies and programs
Building capacity stream
• Engaging stakeholders in vulnerable sectors and
regions to promote awareness of
–
–
–
–
climate change impacts
the need to adapt
the advantages of early adaptation
the tools available to assist with adaptation planning
• Developing a suite of tools to assist stakeholders with
adaptation planning
– Risk management guidelines
– Spatial information on impacts accessible on web
– Enhanced sectoral modelling tools eg BIOCLIM, cc & hydrological
modelling capacities
– Targeted tools for eg planners, local government
• Guidance to incorporate climate change into existing
mechanisms for vulnerable sectors
– Design standards and building codes
Research partnership stream
• Commissioning scoping studies and research in
partnership with other organisations to assess
vulnerability and adaptation options for sectors
– Current work on energy infrastructure, vulnerable cities, marine systems
and extreme events
– Planned work on water resources, agriculture
• Integrated assessments to provide a range of
adaptation options relevant to regions
– Current discussions on major projects in Cairns and GBR, SE Australia,
SW WA regions
– Future work on urban development and coastal vulnerability assessment
– Methods development and piloting
Climate Change & Wheat Yield in WA
Partnership between the Dept of Ag
WA and the AGO. Aims to
identify regional vulnerabilities of
different agricultural industries in
the SW of WA
Some preliminary results from this
project indicate that:
• Wheat yield is likely to change
over a 50 year scenario to 2050
• With main production areas
moving towards the coast and
above the 400mm rainfall isohyet
SW-WA joint adaptation project
• WA Govt committed to working with partners
including AGO to progress integrated
assessment of impacts of climate change and
adaptation options in south-west
• First phase to explore effectiveness of
management approaches and decisions in
region in response to rainfall decline
• Consultations and workshops
• Second phase to be developed
Australian Government Initiatives
- Australian Climate Change Science
Programme
- National Climate Change Adaptation
Programme
- Greenhouse Action in Regional Australia
Programme
Maintaining the Competitive Edge
 Climate change and its
impacts intersect with
different parts of industry
and society differently
 The challenge is to
maintain (or improve) the
competitive edge at each
intersection point i.e.:
Build Adaptive Capacity Across Industry and Society
Building Adaptive Capacity
International
Supply and
Demand
There are many factors
that impact on industry
and society over which we
have very little control or
influence
– Climate Change is one
Climate
Change
Agro –
Ecological
Zoning
Annual
Weather
Patterns
Building Adaptive Capacity
International
Supply and
Demand
Climate
Change
Agro –
Ecological
Zones
Annual
Weather
Patterns
Adaptive capacity is the
ability to successfully cope
with the impact - using
responses over which it has
a high degree of control or
influence
Resilient
Sensitive
Adaptive Capacity
An example: How can Australian industry understand and
manage the effects of increased CO2 (in association with
other CC parameters) on plant growth and function. To
manage risk, the grains industry has to know the interactive
effects of:
• Elevated CO2
• Changed rainfall
• Increased temperature
• Increased atmospheric
evaporative potential
• Nutritional change
… on its capacity to produce & compete
However, there are major gaps in knowledge:
• There is not one field-based study
that has addressed the effects of
elevated CO2 under Australian
conditions.
• There can be no comfort from the
results obtained in controlled
environment experiments or from
northern hemisphere studies.
 Industry view: Australian agriculture recognises that it has
a ‘window of opportunity’ during these ‘early warning stages’
to prepare for the effects of climate change on all levels of
industry.
A national approach to assessing the
impacts of CC in agriculture
• Free air CO2 enriched (FACE)
experiments on wheat are
planned to be a major national
focus for the AGO
• Possible for a FACE-wheat
site to be located in WA
(requires CO2 and
partnerships)
• Outcomes will be important to
identify the future asset value
of agricultural land
(production, economics, social
and environmental issues in a
changed climate)
National Adaptation Framework
• Context - growing international and national attention
on adaptation
• COAG recently recognised adaptation as a key
national climate change issue
• Benefits in joint work to address cross-jurisdictional
issues and impacts, share learnings and minimise
duplication
• Many issues not being currently addressed in sectoral
Ministerial Councils
• Collaboration needed to develop a National Adaptation
Framework
Concluding Remarks
• There is no doubt that climate change is occurring – and there are
unavoidable consequences for Australia’s governments, industries
and communities
• Climate change must be considered a fundamental part of the core
operating environment
• The approach for sectors and regions must be to understand risk,
manage to increase resilience, and take adaptation action to manage
risk and cope with climate change
• The Australian Government has a range of programmes to address
climate change – but these alone will not solve the problems
• It is imperative for all governments and industry sectors to take
greater initiative and leadership in climate change
• When should we start to give climate change the attention it needs?
And: REMEMBER NOAH
What would have happened if Noah had
waited until the flood before starting to build the Ark?
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
Knowledge to realise opportunities and manage risks
THE END