* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download IGBP - WCRP
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Hotspot Ecosystem Research and Man's Impact On European Seas wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Recent IGBP activity Olga Solomina IGBP Vice Chair IGBP Synthesis Book Series FOCUS: GLOBAL CHANGE AND THE EARTH SYSTEM New Integration, Synthesis and Exploration Activity IGBP is launching a second major international synthesis of key policy-relevant areas within global environmental-change research Planet Under Pressure: knowledge and solutions 10 NEW TOPICS IDENTIFIED New Integration, Synthesis and Exploration Activity The role of changing nutrient loads in coastal zones and the open ocean in an increased CO2 World (J. W.Erisman) Geoengineering (L. Russell) Global Nitrogen assessment (J.W. Erisman, J. Galloway) New Integration, Synthesis and Exploration Activity Earth-system impacts from changes in the cryosphere (R. Bradley) Megacities and the coastal zone (T. Zhu, A. Newton) Global environmental change and needs of least developed countries (P. Dube) New Integration, Synthesis and Exploration Activity Land-use, land-cover change and climate (P. Kabat, D. Yakir) Future Earth-system resilience (rates of change with respect to forcing): Earthsystem prediction (D. Schimel) Aerosols in the Earth system (K. Law) Supporting adaptation responses to climate change (M. Stafford-Smith) Megacities in the Coastal Zone Megacities in the Coastal Zone Key themes • Impacts of megacities on the coastal environment, ecosystem goods and services, economy and welfare • Impacts of pollution on human health • Effects of global change (e.g. seal level rise) on megacities • Contributions to environmental changes at regional and global scales • Policy/technological responses for reducing impacts • Co-benefits or cancellation of benefits of air quality improvement and climate change mitigation • Using past and present knowledge to assess impacts of future megacities Megacities in the Coastal Zone Steering group Alice Newton* (University of Algarve, Portugal; [email protected]), Bill Dennison*(University of Maryland Center for Environmetal Science; [email protected]), Jozef Pacyna* (Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Norway; [email protected]), Ramesh Ramachandran* (Institute for Ocean Management, India; [email protected]), Eric Wolanski* (Australian Institute of Marine Science; [email protected]), Tong Zhu‡ (Peking University, China; [email protected]) *Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ); ‡International Global AtmosphericChemistry (IGAC) Products envisaged 1-3 peer-reviewed papers, book and a summary for policymakers. Megacities in the Coastal Zone Key Partners Several IGBP core projects and other Global Environmental Change programmes including the WCRP, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), International Council of Science Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change working group 2 (IPCC WG2), Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START) and the European Commission. The activity will build on previous and ongoing work on this topic, for example a report by International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) report and a Fast-Track Initiative cosponsored by IGBP and the Scientific Committee on OceanicResearch (SCOR). Earth-system impacts from changes in the cryosphere Earth-system impacts from changes in the cryosphere Key themes • The interactions and links between ice sheet decay and ocean circulation, and the role of ocean currents on sub-ice melting • The effects of glacier recession on ecosystems (freshwater and terrestrial) via changes in the hydrology and biogeochemistry of surface waters • The role of permafrost thawing on atmospheric methane concentration & biogeochemistry of surface waters (& downstream effects on coastal ecosystems) • The effects of polar & sub-polar ocean productivity on food chain dynamics with loss of sea-ice • The increase in hazardous conditions in montane valleys from glacial lake overflow floods, due to glacier recession • The different regional changes in sea-level, resulting from melting of ice in Antarctica versus Greenland, and consequences for coastal communities, land-use and infrastructure • The consequences of mountain glacier recession for regional water resources, and the effects on societies that rely on glacier meltwater ... impacts from the cryosphere... Key partners The synthesis will engage all of IGBP’s core projects, and also complement cryosphere related projects of major international bodies such as the World Climate Research Programme (CLIC), the World Bank, the Global Water System Project, the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research and the International Arctic Science Committee. Steering group Ray Bradley (University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA), Martin Beniston (University of Geneva [email protected]), Olga Solomina (Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences), Charles Vorosmarty (City University of New York), Mathias Vuille (The University at Albany) Global Environment Change and Sustainable Development: Needs of Least Developed Countries Needs of Least Developed Countries Key themes • Assessing the impact of climate change and climatic extremes on human health in the least developed countries • Assessing the potential responses to climate change and the factors that might limit such responses • Evaluating the role of indigenous/local/traditional/ knowledge systems in developing adaptation and mitigation strategies Needs of Least Developed Countries Topic lead Opha Pauline Dube (University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana) Key partners The synthesis will engage IGBP’s core projects and national committees from LDCs, as well as other global environmental change programmes, policymakers and NGOs. Needs of Least Developed Countries Products envisaged The activity aims to provide a coherent synthesis of key global environmental change issues in LDCs that can be of value to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and hence guide policy. A variety of other audiences are expected to benefit, for example organisations involved in disaster management, non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and the private sector. Diverse communications products are therefore envisaged, including articles in peer-reviewed journals and summaries for policymakers. Effective use of media briefings and the Internet will be made. Geoengineering: Facts or Fiction Key questions • What unintended consequences of each geoengineering scheme for the geosphere and biosphere need to be considered, especially complex feedback processes? • Which consequences can be quantified based on existing analogs in the current perturbed Earth system? • Which consequences could be tested with experiments in advance of implementation? • How should the feedback processes be incorporated in the decisionmaking process? • What are the scientific uncertainties associated with each proposed geoengineering scheme? • What is the appropriate niche for possible geoengineering approaches? • Can some geonengineering schemes be used to address regional problems, such as Arctic ice melt? Geoengineering: Facts or Fiction Steering group Lynn Russell Colin Prentice (AIMES) Mark Stafford-Smith (IGBP) Oran Young (IHDP) Naomi Oreskes Phil Rasch (IGAC) Ulrike Lohmann Mario Molina Richard Leaitch David Andresen Key partners AIMES, IGAC, SOLAS, IHDP, WCRP, Diversitas, ESSP Aerosols in the Earth System Key Questions • What are the sources, sinks and transformations of atmospheric aerosol and their precursors? How have these changed from past to present and how are they anticipated to change in the future? • What are the interactions and impacts of aerosols on terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems? Aerosols and biogeochemical cycles. • What is the impact of aerosols on the Earth’s radiation budget, hydrological cycle, ocean/atmospheric dynamics and climate? • What are the potential health impacts of largescale changes in aerosol levels, currently and in the future? Key Partners IGAC, iLEAPS, ACPC, SOLAS, PAGES, GCP Logistical Support Kathy Law/Sarah Doherty (IGAC), Markuu Kulmala/AnniReisel (iLEAPS). Earth System Resilience (rates of change with respect to forcing): Earth System Prediction Key issues Types of earth system change, rates of change, linear, continuous, discontinuous, abrupt, including its human components. Time dimension: understanding system components with different time constants. Spatial dimension: connectivity, spatial linkages, teleconnections. What are the predictability characteristics of earth system components from observations and modeling. What types of models are needed for the next generation of earth system models? Which ones are feasible in the next decade or so? What advances in theory, process understanding, models and observations are needed to increase the skill of earth systems predictions? What types of abrupt changes are possible in the earth system and what do we know about their likelihood? What can we do to increase resilience to some of these changes? The Role of Land Cover and Land Use in Modulating Climate Key questions What are the rate, magnitude and type of land corver and land use changes (LUCC) in the pre-industrial and post-industrial era (deforestation, drying wetlands, large scale irrigation, urbanization, including LUCC scenarios until 2100)? Which type of LUCC Climate system feedbacks are important (Energy balance, biology and biogeochemistry, AC-chemistry)? Is there an evidence (paleo-proxy, more recent experimental, modeling) of LUCC being and important forcing agent of the climate in the past (e.g.in key monsoon regions of the World; in the Sahel, drying Florida wetlands etc.) Can we discriminate LUCC climate forcing signal from industrial GHG-signal: What is the relative and absolute share of the LUCC forcing starting from the beginning of industrial times (~1850, Both global and regional)? What are the plausible options to manage the future LUCC to mitigate and adapt to climate change? (Relation to geoengineering). Global Nitrogen Assessment and a future outlook Key questions • What are the formation, storage, and losses of reactive nitrogen on different scales? • What are the changes in the inadvertent impacts of the human mobilization of nitrogen, e.g., acid rain, eutrophication of fresh and coastal waters, open ocean fertilization, oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, N20 production, etc. • What are future scenario’s for nitrogen, its benefits and effects? • How do we manage reactive nitrogen in relation to food security, energy use, human health, biodiversity, climate and ecosystems? • What are the options for nitrogen management to reduce the impacts? • What are the links between nitrogen and other biogeochemical cycles? • How can our scientific understanding of multiple nitrogen effects help the regions of the world develop a more integrated approach to managing nitrogen in the environment? The role of changing nutrient loads in the Ocean in an increased CO2 world Key questions • What are the drivers, processes and effects of nutrients in large marine ecosystems, including the open ocean? • What are the current and future mitigation options currently applied in large marine ecosystem regions? • What are the impacts of climate variability and change and its extremes? • What are the links between nutrients and carbon? • What are cost-effective policies and measures to decrease the impacts of increased nutrient cycling? Open Science Conference 2012 Planet Under Pressure: New Knowledge, New Solutions The three-day science conference will attract around 2500 world-leading environmental change scientists. It will be followed by a day dedicated to discussing the findings with policymakers, the public, and funders of environmental science. Open Science Conference 2012 AUDIENCE • The global-change research community including regional networking initiatives. The organisers are particularly keen to enable researchers from the developing world to attend the conference • International bodies such as the United Nations Environment Programme, WHO, UNESCO, and the World Meteorological Organization • The International Council for Science • Government departments • Environmental protection agencies • Funding agencies • Environmental charities and other non-governmental organisations • International media IGBP Global Change Magazine