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Recent IGBP activity
Olga Solomina
IGBP Vice Chair
IGBP Synthesis Book Series
FOCUS: GLOBAL CHANGE AND THE EARTH SYSTEM
New Integration, Synthesis
and Exploration Activity
IGBP is launching a second major international
synthesis of key policy-relevant areas within
global environmental-change research
Planet Under Pressure:
knowledge and solutions
10 NEW TOPICS IDENTIFIED
New Integration, Synthesis
and Exploration Activity
The role of changing nutrient loads in
coastal zones and the open ocean in an
increased CO2 World
(J. W.Erisman)
Geoengineering
(L. Russell)
Global Nitrogen assessment
(J.W. Erisman, J. Galloway)
New Integration, Synthesis
and Exploration Activity
Earth-system impacts from
changes in the cryosphere
(R. Bradley)
Megacities and the coastal zone
(T. Zhu, A. Newton)
Global environmental change and
needs of least developed countries
(P. Dube)
New Integration, Synthesis
and Exploration Activity
Land-use, land-cover change and
climate (P. Kabat, D. Yakir)
Future Earth-system
resilience (rates of change
with respect to forcing): Earthsystem prediction
(D. Schimel)
Aerosols in the Earth system
(K. Law)
Supporting adaptation responses to
climate change (M. Stafford-Smith)
Megacities in the Coastal Zone
Megacities in the Coastal Zone
Key themes
• Impacts of megacities on the coastal environment, ecosystem
goods and services, economy and welfare
• Impacts of pollution on human health
• Effects of global change (e.g. seal level rise) on megacities
• Contributions to environmental changes at regional and global
scales
• Policy/technological responses for reducing impacts
• Co-benefits or cancellation of benefits of air quality
improvement and climate change mitigation
• Using past and present knowledge to assess impacts of future
megacities
Megacities in the Coastal Zone
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Steering group

Alice Newton* (University of Algarve,
Portugal; [email protected]), Bill
Dennison*(University of Maryland
Center for Environmetal Science;
[email protected]), Jozef
Pacyna* (Norwegian Institute for Air
Research, Norway; [email protected]),
Ramesh Ramachandran* (Institute
for Ocean Management, India;
[email protected]), Eric
Wolanski* (Australian Institute of
Marine Science;
[email protected]), Tong Zhu‡
(Peking University, China;
[email protected])
*Land-Ocean Interactions in the
Coastal Zone (LOICZ); ‡International
Global AtmosphericChemistry (IGAC)

Products envisaged
1-3 peer-reviewed papers, book and
a summary for policymakers.
Megacities in the Coastal Zone
Key Partners
Several IGBP core projects and other
Global Environmental Change
programmes including the WCRP, United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),
International Council of Science
Programme on Ecosystem Change and
Society (PECS), Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change working group 2 (IPCC
WG2), Global Change System for Analysis,
Research and Training (START) and the
European Commission. The activity will
build on previous and ongoing work on this
topic, for example a report by International
Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC)
report and a Fast-Track Initiative cosponsored by IGBP and the Scientific
Committee on OceanicResearch (SCOR).
Earth-system impacts
from changes in the cryosphere
Earth-system impacts
from changes in the cryosphere
Key themes
• The interactions and links between ice sheet decay and ocean
circulation, and the role of ocean currents on sub-ice melting
• The effects of glacier recession on ecosystems (freshwater and
terrestrial) via changes in the hydrology and biogeochemistry of
surface waters
• The role of permafrost thawing on atmospheric methane
concentration & biogeochemistry of surface waters (&
downstream effects on coastal ecosystems)
• The effects of polar & sub-polar ocean productivity on food chain
dynamics with loss of sea-ice
• The increase in hazardous conditions in montane valleys from
glacial lake overflow floods, due to glacier recession
• The different regional changes in sea-level, resulting from melting
of ice in Antarctica versus Greenland, and consequences for
coastal communities, land-use and infrastructure
• The consequences of mountain glacier recession for regional water
resources, and the effects on societies that rely on glacier
meltwater
... impacts from the cryosphere...
Key partners
The synthesis will engage all of
IGBP’s core projects, and also
complement cryosphere related
projects of major international
bodies such as the World Climate
Research Programme (CLIC), the
World Bank, the Global Water
System Project, the Scientific
Committee on Antarctic Research
and the International Arctic Science
Committee.
Steering group
Ray Bradley (University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA),
Martin Beniston (University of Geneva
[email protected]), Olga Solomina (Institute of
Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences), Charles
Vorosmarty (City University of New York), Mathias Vuille
(The University at Albany)
Global Environment Change and Sustainable
Development: Needs of Least Developed Countries
Needs of Least Developed Countries
Key themes
• Assessing the impact of
climate change and climatic
extremes on human health in
the least developed countries
• Assessing the potential responses
to climate change and the factors
that might limit such responses
• Evaluating the role of
indigenous/local/traditional/
knowledge systems in developing
adaptation and mitigation
strategies
Needs of Least Developed Countries
Topic lead
Opha Pauline Dube
(University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana)
Key partners
The synthesis will engage IGBP’s core projects
and national committees from LDCs, as well as
other global environmental change programmes,
policymakers and NGOs.
Needs of Least Developed Countries
Products envisaged

The activity aims to provide a coherent
synthesis of key global environmental change
issues in LDCs that can be of value to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), and hence guide policy. A variety of
other audiences are expected to benefit, for
example organisations involved in disaster
management, non-governmental
organisations (NGOs) and the private sector.
Diverse communications products are
therefore envisaged, including articles in
peer-reviewed journals and summaries for
policymakers. Effective use of media briefings
and the Internet will be made.
Geoengineering: Facts or Fiction
Key questions
• What unintended consequences of each geoengineering scheme for
the geosphere and biosphere need to be considered, especially
complex feedback processes?
• Which consequences can be quantified based on existing analogs in
the current perturbed Earth system?
• Which consequences could be tested with experiments in advance of
implementation?
• How should the feedback processes be incorporated in the decisionmaking process?
• What are the scientific uncertainties associated with each proposed
geoengineering scheme?
• What is the appropriate niche for possible geoengineering
approaches?
• Can some geonengineering schemes be used to address regional
problems, such as Arctic ice melt?
Geoengineering: Facts or Fiction
Steering group
Lynn Russell
Colin Prentice (AIMES)
Mark Stafford-Smith (IGBP)
Oran Young (IHDP)
Naomi Oreskes
Phil Rasch (IGAC)
Ulrike Lohmann
Mario Molina
Richard Leaitch
David Andresen
Key partners
AIMES, IGAC, SOLAS, IHDP,
WCRP, Diversitas, ESSP
Aerosols in the Earth System
Key Questions
• What are the sources, sinks and
transformations of atmospheric aerosol and
their precursors? How have these changed
from past to present and how are they
anticipated to change in the future?
• What are the interactions and impacts of
aerosols on terrestrial and oceanic
ecosystems? Aerosols and biogeochemical
cycles.
• What is the impact of aerosols on the Earth’s
radiation budget, hydrological cycle,
ocean/atmospheric dynamics and climate?
• What are the potential health impacts of largescale changes in aerosol levels, currently and
in the future?
Key Partners IGAC, iLEAPS,
ACPC, SOLAS, PAGES, GCP
Logistical Support Kathy
Law/Sarah Doherty (IGAC),
Markuu Kulmala/AnniReisel
(iLEAPS).
Earth System Resilience (rates of change with
respect to forcing): Earth System Prediction
Key issues

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

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Types of earth system change, rates of change, linear, continuous,
discontinuous, abrupt, including its human components.
Time dimension: understanding system components with different time
constants.
Spatial dimension: connectivity, spatial linkages, teleconnections.
What are the predictability characteristics of earth system components from
observations and modeling.
What types of models are needed for the next generation of earth system
models? Which ones are feasible in the next decade or so?
What advances in theory, process understanding, models and observations
are needed to increase the skill of earth systems predictions?
What types of abrupt changes are possible in the earth system and what do
we know about their likelihood? What can we do to increase resilience to
some of these changes?
The Role of Land Cover and Land
Use in Modulating Climate
Key questions
What are the rate, magnitude and type of land corver
and land use changes (LUCC) in the pre-industrial
and post-industrial era (deforestation, drying
wetlands, large scale irrigation, urbanization, including
LUCC scenarios until 2100)?
Which type of LUCC Climate system feedbacks are
important (Energy balance, biology and
biogeochemistry, AC-chemistry)?
Is there an evidence (paleo-proxy, more recent
experimental, modeling) of LUCC being and important
forcing agent of the climate in the past (e.g.in key
monsoon regions of the World; in the Sahel, drying
Florida wetlands etc.)
Can we discriminate LUCC climate forcing signal from
industrial GHG-signal: What is the relative and
absolute share of the LUCC forcing starting from the
beginning of industrial times (~1850, Both global and
regional)?
What are the plausible options to manage the future
LUCC to mitigate and adapt to climate change?
(Relation to geoengineering).
Global Nitrogen Assessment
and a future outlook
Key questions
• What are the formation, storage, and losses of reactive nitrogen on different
scales?
• What are the changes in the inadvertent impacts of the human mobilization of
nitrogen, e.g., acid rain, eutrophication of fresh and coastal waters, open ocean
fertilization, oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, N20 production, etc.
• What are future scenario’s for nitrogen, its benefits and effects?
• How do we manage reactive nitrogen in relation to food security, energy use,
human health, biodiversity, climate and ecosystems?
• What are the options for nitrogen management to reduce the impacts?
• What are the links between nitrogen and other biogeochemical cycles?
• How can our scientific understanding of multiple nitrogen effects help the
regions of the world develop a more integrated approach to managing nitrogen
in the environment?
The role of changing nutrient loads in the Ocean in
an increased CO2 world
Key questions
• What are the drivers, processes and effects of nutrients in
large marine ecosystems, including the open ocean?
• What are the current and future mitigation options
currently applied in large marine ecosystem regions?
• What are the impacts of climate
variability and change and its
extremes?
• What are the links between nutrients
and carbon?
• What are cost-effective policies and
measures to decrease the impacts of
increased nutrient cycling?
Open Science Conference 2012
Planet Under Pressure:
New Knowledge, New Solutions
The three-day science conference will attract around 2500
world-leading environmental change scientists. It will be
followed by a day dedicated to discussing the findings with
policymakers, the public, and funders of environmental
science.
Open Science Conference 2012
AUDIENCE
• The global-change research community including regional networking
initiatives. The organisers are particularly keen to enable researchers
from the developing world to attend the conference
• International bodies such as the United Nations Environment
Programme, WHO, UNESCO, and the World Meteorological
Organization
• The International Council for Science
• Government departments
• Environmental protection agencies
• Funding agencies
• Environmental charities and other non-governmental organisations
• International media
IGBP Global Change Magazine