Download DR. R. K. PACHAURI Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on

CLIMATE CHANGE AND
CREATING A SUSTAINABLE
FUTURE
DR. R. K. PACHAURI
Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute
Director, Yale Climate & Energy Institute
9th October 2011, Mongolia
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OBSERVED CHANGES
Global average
temperature
Global average
sea level
Northern
hemisphere
snow cover
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
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PROJECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURE
CHANGES
(2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)
(oC)
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5
Continued emissions would lead to further warming
of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century
(best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)
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INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC SINCE
ABOUT 1970
- Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost
estimate
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AVERAGE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES
INCREASED AT ALMOST TWICE THE
GLOBAL AVERAGE RATE IN THE PAST
100 YEARS
- Annual average arctic sea ice extent has
shrunk by 2.7% per decade
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Photo credit: GoodPlanet
MORE INTENSE AND LONGER DROUGHTS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER WIDER AREAS
SINCE THE 1970s, PARTICULARLY IN THE
TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS
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IMPACTS ON HUMAN HEALTH
Projected climate change-related exposures are
likely to affect the health status of millions of
people, particularly those with low adaptive capacity
• Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease
primarily associated with floods and droughts
• Exacerbation of the abundance and toxicity of cholera due
to increase in coastal water temperature
• Increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves,
floods, storms, fires and droughts
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IMPACTS ON WATER
RESOURCES
•
Glaciers in Asia are melting faster in recent years than before,
particularly the Zerafshan glacier, the Abramov glacier and the
glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau
•
Glacier melt is projected to increase mudflows, flooding, rock
avalanches and adversely affect water resources within the next 2
to 3 decades as well as affect people dependent on glacial melt
for their water resources.
•
Rapid thawing of permafrost and decrease in depths of frozen
soils due largely to rising temperature has threatened many cities
and human settlements, has caused more frequent landslides
and degeneration of some forest ecosystems, and has resulted in
increased lake-water levels in the permafrost region of Asia.
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IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY
• Water stress at low latitudes means losses of
productivity for both rain-fed and irrigated
agriculture
• Possible yield reduction in agriculture:
50% by 2020 in some African countries
30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia
30% by 2080 in Latin America
• Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa
due to climate variability and change
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VULNERABLE
POPULATIONS
Vulnerability in developing regions and among poor &
marginalised communities is aggravated by low adaptive
capacity and non-climate stresses, such as:





Dependence on climate-sensitive resources
Integrity of key infrastructure
Preparedness and planning
Sophistication of the public health system
Exposure to conflict
Without appropriate measures, climate change will likely
exacerbate the poverty situation and continue to slow down
economic growth in developing countries
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POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE ON
MIGRATION AND CONFLICTS
Rising ethnic conflicts can be linked to competition over
increasingly scarce natural resources
Numbers of environmental refugees could increase as
extreme events, floods and famines become more
frequent
 Climate change could force hundreds of
millions of people from their native land
by the end of the century
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CHARACTERISTICS OF
STABILIZATION SCENARIOS
POST-TAR STABILIZATION SCENARIOS
Stabilization
level
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global mean
temp.
increase
(ºC)
Year CO2
needs to
peak
Global sea level
rise above preindustrial from
thermal
expansion
(m)
445 – 490
2.0 – 2.4
2000 – 2015
0.4 – 1.4
490 – 535
2.4 – 2.8
2000 – 2020
0.5 – 1.7
535 – 590
2.8 – 3.2
2010 – 2030
0.6 – 1.9
590 – 710
3.2 – 4.0
2020 – 2060
0.6 – 2.4
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IMPACTS OF MITIGATION ON GDP
GROWTH
GDP
Cost of mitigation
in 2030: max 3%
of global GDP
GDP without
mitigation
Mitigation would
postpone GDP
growth of one year
at most over the
medium term
GDP with
stringent
mitigation
Current
2030
Time
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All stabilization levels assessed
can be achieved by deployment of a
portfolio of technologies that are
currently available or expected to
be commercialized
in coming decades
This assumes that investment
flows, technology transfer and
incentives are in place for
technology development
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BEYOND TECHNOLOGY
INNOVATION
INSTRUMENTS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES
The pace, cost and extent of our response to climate
change will depend critically on the cost, performance,
and availability of technologies
The move towards a low-carbon development pathway
requires the adoption of adequate measures:
 Effective carbon-price signal
 Regulations, standards, taxes and charges
 Changes in lifestyle
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RENEWABLE ENERGY GROWTH
RAPID INCREASE IN
RECENT YEARS
•140 GW of new RE power
plant capacity was built in
2008-2009
•This equals 47% of all
power plants built during
that period
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17
TECHNICAL ADVANCEMENTS:
Growth in size of typical commercial wind turbines
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18
RE costs have declined in the past and further declines can be
expected in the future.
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RE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies
2004
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RE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies
2011
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LaBl
LIGHTING A BILLION LIVES
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A technological society has two choices. First it can wait
until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies,
distortion and self-deceptions…
Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances
to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.
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