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Sustainable Futures By John Holmes – licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution – Non-Commercial – Share Alike License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ Title Description Keywords Objectives Author Organisation Version Date Copyright Climate Change GRAHAM CAPPER Climate Change NORTHUMBRIA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT BE1020 Distance Learning CLIMATE CHANGE Level 7 Paper 2 Tutors JOHN HOLMES / GRAHAM CAPPER Introduction There can be little doubt that climate change is the most important environmental problem facing the world community. It is considered by many as the most important problem of any sort. In 2004, the UK government’s chief scientist, Sir David King, stated: “climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today – more serious even than the threat of terrorism” (King 2004). A wake-up call for the UK came in 2006 when the Stern Report was published (Stern, 2006; Warren et al, 2006). This is one of the most exhaustive and authorative reports on climate change ever published. Many of the sections in this paper are based on the Stern Report. This paper considers the greenhouse effect, greenhouse gases and just two particular aspects of climate change – the water cycle and rising global temperatures. Other areas of physical climate change as illustrated in Figure 2 (see section 4.i) are left for independent study. The Greenhouse Effect Many recent scientific studies have come to a simple conclusion: human activity has raised the level of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), in the atmosphere. The consequences of increasing levels of CO2 include a rise in global temperatures, the melting of polar ice caps, a rise in sea levels and other climate changes. The greenhouse effect is not a new concept - it is a widely understood theory in atmospheric science and has its roots in nineteenth century work of the scientists Fourier, Tyndall and Arrhenius. The natural greenhouse effect is a necessity because, without it, the average temperature of the earth would be of the order of approximately -18ºC rather than 15ºC. Fourier realised in the 1820s that the atmosphere was more permeable to incoming solar radiation than outgoing infrared radiation and therefore trapped heat. Some of the sunlight (strictly speaking, solar energy in the form of visible and ultraviolet radiation) reaching the earth’s atmosphere is reflected back by the atmosphere (25%) and the earth’s surface (5%). Some radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere (25%) and the earth’s surface (45%), which contribute to heating the earth. The energy absorbed at the earth’s surface is re-radiated back to the atmosphere as infrared radiation, longer in wavelength and lower in intensity, since the earth is much cooler than the sun. In the 1850s Tyndall identified the types of molecules that create the heat-trapping effect. Certain trace gases in the atmosphere are transparent to the incoming shortwave solar radiation but absorb and re-emit the outgoing long-wave terrestrial radiation. This increases the kinetic energy of the gas molecules causing the temperature of the atmosphere, and subsequently the earth’s surface, to rise. Most absorption of infrared radiation takes place in the lower atmosphere, the troposphere. This warming phenomenon is known as the ‘natural’ greenhouse effect since the atmosphere is acting like the glass in a greenhouse, allowing short-wave radiation through but trapping much of the long-wave radiation trying to escape. The absorbing gases are called greenhouse gases. The most quoted greenhouse is CO 2 and Arrhenius took Tyndall’s work a step further and showed that doubling the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere would lead to significant changes in surface temperatures. Over time, scientists have improved their understanding of how greenhouse gases absorb radiation, allowing them to make more accurate calculations of the links between greenhouse gas concentrations and temperatures. For example, it is now well established that the warming effect of CO2 rises approximately logarithmically with its concentration in the atmosphere. From simple energy-balance calculations, the direct warming effect of a doubling of CO2 concentrations would lead to an average surface warming of around 1°C. CO2 levels have risen from approximately 280 parts per million (ppm) at the time of the Industrial Revolution to 430ppm in 2006. The consequence of these levels of CO2 is a warming of the earth by more than 0.5ºC and a potential for a further 0.5ºC rise by 2020. If the carbon emissions continue in this manner then the CO2 levels are estimated to reach 550ppm by 2050 with a consequent overall rise in global temperature levels to 2ºC above pre-industrial levels. The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect From the end of the last glacial episode to the mid-eighteenth century, the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere remained fairly constant. However, since the Industrial Revolution concentrations of most of the major greenhouse gases have increased. With more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, more outgoing terrestrial radiation is trapped in the lower atmosphere, leading to increases in surface temperature. The general scientific consensus is that the emissions of greenhouse gases are enhancing the earth’s natural greenhouse effect. The fear is that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will increase the average temperatures and lead to changes in climate and weather patterns. Such climate change would have profound effects on ecosystems, landforms and human society. Although the major, and the most quoted, greenhouse gas is CO2 there are other greenhouse gases and there are natural sources of CO2. These include the respiration of animals and the ocean surface. However it is predominantly the man-made sources of CO2 - the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal in power stations and oil for transport, cement production and land-use changes such as deforestation that are the focus of attention. The other greenhouse gases include ‘natural’ greenhouse gases - water vapour, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone as well as man-made gases, such as refrigerants – CFCs and HFCs and gases such as sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). The use of CFCs and HCFCs as refrigerants were addressed under the Montreal Protocols (UNEP, 1997), where phase-out programmes were agreed, resulting in these substances no longer being used as refrigerants in all new build and most existing situations (most countries agreed to use no more chlorofluorocarbons from 1996, with developing countries committing to 2010 as an end date). Interestingly, the Montreal Protocol addressed substances that depleted the ozone layer – not necessarily the same substances or not necessarily substances with the same potential to affect global warming. One of the most encouraging aspects of the Montreal Protocol is the fact that it has been widely adopted and implemented. Apart from its example of exceptional international cooperation it has also had a measurable effect in the years that have followed with scientists reporting by 2003 that the depletion of the ozone layer was slowing down and by 2006 that the previous ‘holes’ in the ozone layer were closing. The industry’s favoured replacements for CFCs are HFCs. These are preferable, in that they have no effect on ozone, but are often potent global warming contributors. Similarly, perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and SF6 can be used, as substitutes for CFCs and halon, but are also released into the atmosphere as a result of industrial activities such as aluminium smelting and semiconductor manufacture. Although there are a number of ways of measuring and contrasting the potential of different greenhouse gases, the Global Warming Potential (GWP) is perhaps the most useful, particularly as a policy instrument (for their effect on ozone, the Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) is used). GWP take account various factors including the absorption strength of a molecule with assessments of its atmospheric lifetime. They can also include the indirect greenhouse effects due to chemical changes in the atmosphere caused by the gas. Table 1 indicates a number of greenhouse gases with their associative Global Warming Potentials (IPCC, 1995). The GWP does not have any units since it is the ratio of the global warming effect of each substance compared to that of a similar mass of carbon dioxide (i.e. the GWP of CO2 is defined to be 1.0). Table 1 Global Warming Potential of Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse gas Atmospheric Lifetime (yrs) Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6) CFC-12 HCFC-22 200-450 Global Warming Potential (100 years) 1 9-15 120 62 296 3200 22000 100 11.9 10600 1700 The table indicates the potential understating of the seriousness of GWP from an overemphasis on CO2 as the ‘culprit’. World emissions of greenhouse gases were the equivalent of 42bn tones of CO 2 in 2000. Figure 1 indicates the sources of emissions (Baumert et al, 2005) Figure 1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Greenhouse Gas Emissions 18 24 14 14 8 Energy Production Transport Industry Buildings Agriculture Changes in land use 14 Cutting Greenhouse Gas Emissions The international community responded to the damaging changes that were occurring to the ozone layer by committing to the Montreal Protocol as described earlier. It has responded collectively to climate change in more general terms by adopting the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992, followed by the Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in February 2005. Unfortunately the ‘sign-up’ to Kyoto was not as extensive as the signatories to the Montreal Protocol and notably large ‘players’ such as the US, Russia, China and India did not commit. Under Kyoto, the UK has a greenhouse gas reduction target of 12.5% of 1990 levels by the period 2008-2012, as part of a European Union collective target of an 8% reduction. Several EU countries, including the UK, have gone beyond the Kyoto target to suggest future greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions targets. The UK national objective is to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% on 1990 levels by 2010 and by 60% on 2000 levels by 2050. The UK’s target of a 60% reduction by 2050 was originally suggested by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP) as a means to limit the rise in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide to 550 parts per million (ppm) (RCEP 2000) and was adopted by the UK Government in 2003 (DTI 2003c). The RCEP target was based on the assumption that all nations would be contributing to a global reduction in carbon emissions via a framework called ‘contraction and convergence’. The UK Government has not yet adopted contraction and convergence as its international negotiating position for the period after the Kyoto agreement, despite RCEP’s advice. Setting a national target is only part of what is needed to stabilise global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases – it has little value unless it eventually forms part of a strong global agreement. There are increasing fears that 550ppm may far exceed a ‘safe’ level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. For example, the recent report of the International Climate Change Taskforce claims that 400ppm is likely to represent a point of no return, beyond which climate change could spiral out of control (Grayling et al, 2005). The current level is 378ppm; rising at around 2ppm per year – only 20 years away from what could be a critical level. Stern indicates that greenhouse gas emissions can be cut in a number of ways. Costs will differ considerably depending on which combination of these methods is used, and in which sector: • • • • Reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and services Increased efficiency, which can save both money and emissions Action on non-energy emissions, such as avoiding deforestation Switching to lower-carbon technologies for power, heat and transport Climate Changes The physical changes involved in climate change include rising global temperatures, as indicated previously, together with rising sea levels, melting polar ice caps and other effects such as increasing levels of rainfall. Figure 2 (reproduced from Table 1.4 of the Stern Report) illustrates the process of climate change and the link between greenhouse gases and climate change. Figure 2 The Stern report indicates that under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the stock of greenhouse gases could more than treble by the end of the century, giving at least a 50% risk of exceeding 5°C global average temperature change during the following decades. An illustration of the scale of such an increase is that we are now only around 5°C warmer than in the last ice age. Such changes would transform the physical geography of the world and therefore have profound implications for the human geography - where people live, and how they live their lives. The Water Cycle One of the first impacts will be on the water cycle. Global mean sea levels rose by an average of 1-2 mm per year during the 20th century. Droughts and floods will become more severe in many areas. Rain will increase at higher latitudes and decrease in the dry subtropics. Hotter land drives more powerful evaporation that brings more intense rainfall and flash floods: “Warming may induce sudden shifts in regional weather patterns such as the monsoon rains in South Asia or the El Nino phenomenon” (Stern, 2006). As temperatures rise, melting glaciers will initially increase flood risk and then strongly reduce water supplies. Ice caps are already retreating and many mountain peaks such as Kilimanjaro have changed dramatically over the last 50 years. Global snow cover has decreased by 10% in the same period. Rising sea levels will result in tens to hundreds of millions more people flooded each year. There will be serious risks and increasing pressures for coastal protection in South East Asia (Bangladesh and Vietnam), small islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific, and large coastal cities, such as Tokyo, New York, Cairo and London. According to one estimate, by the middle of the century, 200 million people may become permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier floods, and more intense droughts. Even in the UK, anecdotal evidence suggests that the 1990s and the earliest years of the 21st century are ones in which water cycle effects are becoming more common. Flash floods have occurred in Boscastle in Devon, in Carlisle and in York. In a BAU scenario infrastructure damage from flooding and storms is expected to increase substantially, especially in coastal regions. Although flood management policies including defences have been introduced across the UK in recent years in an attempt to minimize potential damage it will be interesting to see how effective they are – the basis of the designs and the assumptions supporting the designs are changing rapidly. The increased frequency of use of the Thames Barrier in London provides one insight into the effects of some of the changes that have occurred over the last 25 years. From an initial use of once every two years in the 1980s the barrier is now used on average six times per year and its use has peaked at ten times per year in 1999. Water availability is expected to be increasingly constrained, as runoff in summer declines, particularly in the South East of England where population density is increasing and serious droughts will occur more regularly. Many coastal countries across Europe are also vulnerable to rising sea levels. The Netherlands, where 70% of the population would be threatened by a 1-metre sea level rise, is most at risk. Melting Alpine snow waters and more extreme rainfall patterns could lead to more frequent flooding in major river basins such as the Danube, Rhine and Rhone. Winter tourism will be severely affected across the Alpine region. At higher temperatures, extreme weather events are likely to occur with greater frequency and intensity. Munich Re has examined in detail the costs, in terms of insurance, of climate related events and concludes that: “in the longer term, the number of severe weather-related natural catastrophes is set to increase due, among other things, to global warming. Combined with further increasing concentrations of values in exposed areas, this means continually rising loss potentials. Even apparently contradictory events in Europe, such as the huge snow-pressure losses at the beginning of 2006 and the extremely warm start to this winter, with the potential for severe winter storms, fit into this pattern” Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was the costliest weather catastrophe on record, totaling $125 billion in economic losses (approximately 1.2% of US GDP). By the end of August, Katrina had reached a Category 5 status (the most severe) with peak gusts of 340 km per hour, in large part driven by the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf (1 – 3°C above the long-term average). Katrina maintained its force as it passed over the oilfields off the Louisiana coast, but dropped to a Category 3 hurricane when it hit land. New Orleans was severely damaged when the hurricane-induced 10-metre storm-surge broke through the levees and flooded several quarters (up to 1 km inland). Estimates have indicated that more than 1,300 people died as a result of the hurricane and over one million people were displaced from their homes. The US Earth Policy Institute estimates that 375,000 people have been lost in the three counties affected in Mississippi and that 250,000 former residents of New Orleans have established homes elsewhere and will not return. Stern indicates that the increased costs of damage from extreme weather such as storms, hurricanes, typhoons and floods counteract some early benefits of climate change and will increase rapidly at higher temperatures. Based on simple extrapolations, costs of extreme weather alone could reach 0.5 - 1% of world GDP per annum by the middle of the century, and will keep rising if the world continues to warm. • A 5 or 10% increase in hurricane wind speed, linked to rising sea temperatures, is predicted approximately to double annual damage costs, in the USA. • In the UK, annual flood losses alone could increase from 0.1% of GDP today to 0.2 0.4% of GDP once the increase in global average temperatures reaches 3 or 4°C. Increasing Global Temperatures Stern indicates that there are some areas of the globe that could benefit initially from increasing temperatures. In higher latitude regions, such as Canada, Russia and Scandinavia, climate change may lead to net benefits for temperature increases of 2 or 3°C, through higher agricultural yields, a decrease in cold-related deaths, lower heating requirements, and a possible boost to tourism. However, these regions will also experience the most rapid rates of warming, damaging infrastructure, human health, local livelihoods and biodiversity. Developing regions are at a geographic disadvantage as they are already warmer, on average, than developed regions and they also suffer from high rainfall variability. As a result, further warming will bring poor countries high costs and few benefits. These regions are also heavily dependent on agriculture, the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Declining crop yields, especially in Africa, could leave hundreds of millions without the ability to produce or purchase sufficient food. At mid to high latitudes, crop yields may increase for moderate temperature rises (2 3°C), but then decline with greater amounts of warming. At 4°C and above, global food production is likely to be seriously affected. Developed countries in lower latitudes will be more vulnerable - for example, water availability and crop yields in southern Europe are expected to decline by 20% with a 2°C increase in global temperatures. Regions where water is already scarce will face serious difficulties and growing costs. Diseases such as malaria and dengue fever could become more widespread if effective control measures are not in place. Even in the UK increasing average temperatures are already evident, surface temperatures over central England have risen by 1°C over the last century (IPCC 2001, Hulme et al, 2002). In the summer of 2003, a new temperature record of 38.5°C was set in the UK. Rising summer temperatures and prolonged mild spells resulted in the year of 2006 in the UK being the warmest on record with a mean temperature of 10.84 °C. This exceeded the previous two joint hottest years, both in the recent past - 1990 and 1999. Rising temperatures have not been the only consequence. There is strong UK evidence for changing rainfall patterns and extremes of climate. Because of accelerated climate change, it has been suggested by the UK’s Royal Society that: “Many regions and populations are already beyond acceptable thresholds of exposure to climatic risk’ (Royal Society, 2002). The UK can expect warmer and wetter winters along with warmer and drier summers, with the average annual temperature rising by between 2°C and 3.5°C by 2080 (Hulme et al, 2002). Milder winters will reduce cold-related mortality rates and energy demand for heating, while heat-waves will increase heat-related mortality. Stern reports that the UK’s high temperatures of 2003 were repeated across Europe. Over a three-month period in the summer, Europe experienced exceptionally high temperatures, on average 2.3°C hotter than the long-term average. In the past, a summer as hot as 2003 would be expected to occur once every 1000 years, but climate change has already doubled the chance of such a hot summer occurring (now once every 500 years). By the middle of the century, summers as hot as 2003 will be commonplace. The deaths of around 35,000 people across Europe were brought forward because of the effects of the heat (often through interactions with air pollution). Around 15,000 people died in Paris, where the urban heat island effect sustained nighttime temperatures and reduced people’s tolerance for the heat the following day. In France, electricity became scarce because of a lack of water needed to cool nuclear power plants. Farming, livestock and forestry suffered damages of $15 billion from the combined effects of drought, heat stress and fire. The heat island effect demonstrated in Paris is likely to become more common. People living and working in urban areas will be particularly susceptible to increases in heatrelated mortality because of the interaction between regional warming, the urban heat island and air pollution. In California, a warming of around 2°C relative to pre-industrial is expected to extend the heat wave season by 17 – 27 days and cause a 25 - 35% rise in high pollution days, leading to a 2 to 3-fold increase in the number of heat related deaths in urban areas. In the UK, for a global temperature rise of 3°C, temperatures in London could be up to 7°C warmer than today because of the combined effect of climate change and the urban heat island effect, meaning that comfort levels will be exceeded for people at work for one-quarter of the time on average in the summer. In years that are warmer than average or at higher temperatures, office buildings could become difficult to work in for large spells during the summer without additional airconditioning or cooling. In already-dry regions, such as parts of the Mediterranean and South East England, hot summers will further increase soil drying and subsidence damage to properties that are not properly underpinned. Eco Systems Ecosystems will be particularly vulnerable to climate change, with around 15-40% of species potentially facing extinction after only 2°C of warming. Ocean acidification, a direct result of rising carbon dioxide levels, will have major effects on marine ecosystems, with possible adverse consequences on fish stocks. Irreversible losses of biodiversity are expected, including bleaching of coral reefs, loss of mangrove swamps and impacts on fish populations. Changes in the polar regions are expected to be the largest and the most rapid. Glossary of Terms (from Buchdahl, 2002) Greenhouse Effect: the common term given to the phenomenon whereby certain gases (particularly carbon dioxide but also methane, ozone and others) build up in the lower atmosphere and prevent heat from the sun’s rays from escaping into space. Scientists fear that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases may increase the average global temperature and lead to changes in the earth’s climate and weather patterns. Global Warming: is the term given to the major consequence of the greenhouse effect. Scientists have long predicted and recently measured notable increases in the world's temperature. While the term 'global warming' does go some way to describe the impacts of the greenhouse effect, climate change is a more accurate term. Climate Change: describes the full extent of the implications of the greenhouse effect. Whilst the average temperature of the earth may increase, it is the changes in the earth’s climate systems that will be most dramatic. Extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, cyclones and frosts may effect areas previously unaffected or strike with increased frequency. Rising sea levels may affect rainfall patterns, soil erosion and local ecosystems. Fossil Fuels: the minerals which human society uses to generate most of our energy needs. Coal, oil (which is used to produce petroleum), natural gas, methane and diesel are all examples of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels consist of a long chemical structure that contains carbon. When oxidised with oxygen (burnt), carbon dioxide (CO2) is given off as a waste gas. CO2 is a chief greenhouse gas. Fossil fuels are most commonly used to generate electricity and power motor vehicles. Global Warming Potential: all greenhouse gases contribute to the 'trapping' of infrared radiation, hence heat, in the lower atmosphere. Due to the relative sizes of the greenhouse gas molecules, some trap more than other. Methane for instance has ten times the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of carbon dioxide - carbon dioxide is the base used to compare greenhouse gases. References 1. Baumert, K. A., Herzog, T. and Pershing J., “Navigating the `Numbers: Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy’, World Resources Institute, 2005, available at http://www.wri.org/climate 2. Buchdahl, J., Global Climate Change Student Information Guide – Atmosphere, Climate and Environment Information (ARIC) Programme – Information and Teaching Resource, Manchester, 2002, available at http://www.ace.mmu.ac.uk/Resources/gcc/index.html 3. Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions, ‘UK Climate Change Programme’, 2000. 4. Department of Trade and Industry, “Energy White Paper: Our Energy Future – Creating a Low Carbon Economy”, DTI, 2003 available from http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/policystrategy/energy-white-paper-2003/page21223.html. 5. Gore, Al, ‘An inconvenient truth’, Bloomsbury Publishing, 2006. 6. Graying T., Lawrence T., and Gibbs T., “Climate Commitment – meeting the UK’s 2010 CO2 emissions target”, Institute for Public Policy Research, London, 2005. 7. Hulme,M., Jenkins,G.J., Lu,X., Turnpenny,J.R., Mitchell,T.D., Jones,R.G., Lowe,J., Murphy, J.M.,Hassell,D., Boorman,P., McDonald,R. and Hill,S. “Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report”, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 2002. 8. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories – Reference Manuals 1,2,3, 1996, available at: http://www.ipccnggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs6.htm 9. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2001. Available at http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/index.html 10. King, David “Climate Change Science: Adapt, Mitigate, or Ignore?” Science, Vol303, Issue 5655. 11. Lomborg, Bjorn ‘The skeptical environmentalist – measuring the real state of the world’, Cambridge University Press, 2001. 12. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, ‘Energy - The Changing Climate’, twenty-second report, June 2000. 13. The Royal Society, “Climate Change: what we know and what we need to know”, Royal Society, London, 2002. 14. Stern, N. The Economics of Climate Change, HM Treasury, 2006. Full report available at: http://www.sternreview.org.uk 15. United Nations Environment Programme, ‘The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer’, UNEP, 1997. 16. Warren, R., Arnell, N., Nicholls, R., Levy P. and Price J. “Understanding the regional impacts of climate change” – Research Report Prepared for the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, Working Paper 90, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 2006.