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Climate Change
GRAHAM CAPPER
Climate Change
NORTHUMBRIA UNIVERSITY
SCHOOL OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT
BE1020 Distance Learning
CLIMATE CHANGE
Level 7
Paper 2
Tutors
JOHN HOLMES / GRAHAM CAPPER
Introduction
There can be little doubt that climate change is the most important environmental
problem facing the world community. It is considered by many as the most important
problem of any sort. In 2004, the UK government’s chief scientist, Sir David King, stated:
“climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today – more
serious even than the threat of terrorism” (King 2004).
A wake-up call for the UK came in 2006 when the Stern Report was published (Stern,
2006; Warren et al, 2006). This is one of the most exhaustive and authorative reports
on climate change ever published. Many of the sections in this paper are based on the
Stern Report.
This paper considers the greenhouse effect, greenhouse gases and just two particular
aspects of climate change – the water cycle and rising global temperatures. Other areas
of physical climate change as illustrated in Figure 2 (see section 4.i) are left for
independent study.
The Greenhouse Effect
Many recent scientific studies have come to a simple conclusion: human activity has
raised the level of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), in the atmosphere.
The consequences of increasing levels of CO2 include a rise in global temperatures, the
melting of polar ice caps, a rise in sea levels and other climate changes.
The greenhouse effect is not a new concept - it is a widely understood theory in
atmospheric science and has its roots in nineteenth century work of the scientists
Fourier, Tyndall and Arrhenius. The natural greenhouse effect is a necessity because,
without it, the average temperature of the earth would be of the order of approximately
-18ºC rather than 15ºC.
Fourier realised in the 1820s that the atmosphere was more permeable to incoming
solar radiation than outgoing infrared radiation and therefore trapped heat. Some of
the sunlight (strictly speaking, solar energy in the form of visible and ultraviolet
radiation) reaching the earth’s atmosphere is reflected back by the atmosphere (25%)
and the earth’s surface (5%). Some radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere (25%) and
the earth’s surface (45%), which contribute to heating the earth. The energy absorbed
at the earth’s surface is re-radiated back to the atmosphere as infrared radiation, longer
in wavelength and lower in intensity, since the earth is much cooler than the sun.
In the 1850s Tyndall identified the types of molecules that create the heat-trapping
effect. Certain trace gases in the atmosphere are transparent to the incoming shortwave solar radiation but absorb and re-emit the outgoing long-wave terrestrial
radiation. This increases the kinetic energy of the gas molecules causing the
temperature of the atmosphere, and subsequently the earth’s surface, to rise.
Most absorption of infrared radiation takes place in the lower atmosphere, the
troposphere. This warming phenomenon is known as the ‘natural’ greenhouse effect
since the atmosphere is acting like the glass in a greenhouse, allowing short-wave
radiation through but trapping much of the long-wave radiation trying to escape. The
absorbing gases are called greenhouse gases. The most quoted greenhouse is CO 2 and
Arrhenius took Tyndall’s work a step further and showed that doubling the
concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere would lead to significant changes in surface
temperatures.
Over time, scientists have improved their understanding of how greenhouse gases
absorb radiation, allowing them to make more accurate calculations of the links
between greenhouse gas concentrations and temperatures. For example, it is now well
established that the warming effect of CO2 rises approximately logarithmically with its
concentration in the atmosphere. From simple energy-balance calculations, the direct
warming effect of a doubling of CO2 concentrations would lead to an average surface
warming of around 1°C.
CO2 levels have risen from approximately 280 parts per million (ppm) at the time of the
Industrial Revolution to 430ppm in 2006. The consequence of these levels of CO2 is a
warming of the earth by more than 0.5ºC and a potential for a further 0.5ºC rise by
2020. If the carbon emissions continue in this manner then the CO2 levels are estimated
to reach 550ppm by 2050 with a consequent overall rise in global temperature levels to
2ºC above pre-industrial levels.
The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
From the end of the last glacial episode to the mid-eighteenth century, the levels of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere remained fairly constant. However, since the
Industrial Revolution concentrations of most of the major greenhouse gases have
increased. With more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, more outgoing terrestrial
radiation is trapped in the lower atmosphere, leading to increases in surface
temperature. The general scientific consensus is that the emissions of greenhouse gases
are enhancing the earth’s natural greenhouse effect. The fear is that increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gases will increase the average temperatures and lead to
changes in climate and weather patterns. Such climate change would have profound
effects on ecosystems, landforms and human society.
Although the major, and the most quoted, greenhouse gas is CO2 there are other
greenhouse gases and there are natural sources of CO2. These include the respiration of
animals and the ocean surface. However it is predominantly the man-made sources of
CO2 - the combustion of fossil fuels such as coal in power stations and oil for transport,
cement production and land-use changes such as deforestation that are the focus of
attention.
The other greenhouse gases include ‘natural’ greenhouse gases - water vapour,
methane, nitrous oxide and ozone as well as man-made gases, such as refrigerants –
CFCs and HFCs and gases such as sulphur hexafluoride (SF6).
The use of CFCs and HCFCs as refrigerants were addressed under the Montreal Protocols
(UNEP, 1997), where phase-out programmes were agreed, resulting in these substances
no longer being used as refrigerants in all new build and most existing situations (most
countries agreed to use no more chlorofluorocarbons from 1996, with developing
countries committing to 2010 as an end date). Interestingly, the Montreal Protocol
addressed substances that depleted the ozone layer – not necessarily the same
substances or not necessarily substances with the same potential to affect global
warming. One of the most encouraging aspects of the Montreal Protocol is the fact
that it has been widely adopted and implemented. Apart from its example of
exceptional international cooperation it has also had a measurable effect in the years
that have followed with scientists reporting by 2003 that the depletion of the ozone
layer was slowing down and by 2006 that the previous ‘holes’ in the ozone layer were
closing.
The industry’s favoured replacements for CFCs are HFCs. These are preferable, in that
they have no effect on ozone, but are often potent global warming contributors.
Similarly, perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and SF6 can be used, as substitutes for CFCs and
halon, but are also released into the atmosphere as a result of industrial activities such
as aluminium smelting and semiconductor manufacture.
Although there are a number of ways of measuring and contrasting the potential of
different greenhouse gases, the Global Warming Potential (GWP) is perhaps the most
useful, particularly as a policy instrument (for their effect on ozone, the Ozone Depletion
Potential (ODP) is used). GWP take account various factors including the absorption
strength of a molecule with assessments of its atmospheric lifetime. They can also
include the indirect greenhouse effects due to chemical changes in the atmosphere
caused by the gas.
Table 1 indicates a number of greenhouse gases with their associative Global Warming
Potentials (IPCC, 1995). The GWP does not have any units since it is the ratio of the
global warming effect of each substance compared to that of a similar mass of carbon
dioxide (i.e. the GWP of CO2 is defined to be 1.0).
Table 1
Global Warming Potential of Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse gas
Atmospheric
Lifetime
(yrs)
Carbon Dioxide
(CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous Oxide
(N2O)
Sulphur
Hexafluoride (SF6)
CFC-12
HCFC-22
200-450
Global
Warming
Potential
(100 years)
1
9-15
120
62
296
3200
22000
100
11.9
10600
1700
The table indicates the potential understating of the seriousness of GWP from an
overemphasis on CO2 as the ‘culprit’.
World emissions of greenhouse gases were the equivalent of 42bn tones of CO 2 in 2000.
Figure 1 indicates the sources of emissions (Baumert et al, 2005)
Figure 1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
18
24
14
14
8
Energy Production
Transport
Industry
Buildings
Agriculture
Changes in land use
14
Cutting Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The international community responded to the damaging changes that were occurring
to the ozone layer by committing to the Montreal Protocol as described earlier. It has
responded collectively to climate change in more general terms by adopting the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992, followed by the Kyoto
Protocol, which came into force in February 2005. Unfortunately the ‘sign-up’ to Kyoto
was not as extensive as the signatories to the Montreal Protocol and notably large
‘players’ such as the US, Russia, China and India did not commit.
Under Kyoto, the UK has a greenhouse gas reduction target of 12.5% of 1990 levels by
the period 2008-2012, as part of a European Union collective target of an 8% reduction.
Several EU countries, including the UK, have gone beyond the Kyoto target to suggest
future greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions targets. The UK national objective is to reduce
CO2 emissions by 20% on 1990 levels by 2010 and by 60% on 2000 levels by 2050.
The UK’s target of a 60% reduction by 2050 was originally suggested by the Royal
Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP) as a means to limit the rise in
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide to 550 parts per million (ppm) (RCEP
2000) and was adopted by the UK Government in 2003 (DTI 2003c). The RCEP target
was based on the assumption that all nations would be contributing to a global
reduction in carbon emissions via a framework called ‘contraction and convergence’.
The UK Government has not yet adopted contraction and convergence as its
international negotiating position for the period after the Kyoto agreement, despite
RCEP’s advice. Setting a national target is only part of what is needed to stabilise global
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases – it has little
value unless it eventually forms part of a strong global agreement. There are increasing
fears that 550ppm may far exceed a ‘safe’ level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
For example, the recent report of the International Climate Change Taskforce claims
that 400ppm is likely to represent a point of no return, beyond which climate change
could spiral out of control (Grayling et al, 2005). The current level is 378ppm; rising at
around 2ppm per year – only 20 years away from what could be a critical level.
Stern indicates that greenhouse gas emissions can be cut in a number of ways. Costs
will differ considerably depending on which combination of these methods is used, and
in which sector:
•
•
•
•
Reducing demand for emissions-intensive goods and services
Increased efficiency, which can save both money and emissions
Action on non-energy emissions, such as avoiding deforestation
Switching to lower-carbon technologies for power, heat and transport
Climate Changes
The physical changes involved in climate change include rising global temperatures, as
indicated previously, together with rising sea levels, melting polar ice caps and other
effects such as increasing levels of rainfall. Figure 2 (reproduced from Table 1.4 of the
Stern Report) illustrates the process of climate change and the link between greenhouse
gases and climate change.
Figure 2
The Stern report indicates that under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the stock of
greenhouse gases could more than treble by the end of the century, giving at least a
50% risk of exceeding 5°C global average temperature change during the following
decades. An illustration of the scale of such an increase is that we are now only around
5°C warmer than in the last ice age. Such changes would transform the physical
geography of the world and therefore have profound implications for the human
geography - where people live, and how they live their lives.
The Water Cycle
One of the first impacts will be on the water cycle. Global mean sea levels rose by an
average of 1-2 mm per year during the 20th century. Droughts and floods will become
more severe in many areas. Rain will increase at higher latitudes and decrease in the
dry subtropics. Hotter land drives more powerful evaporation that brings more intense
rainfall and flash floods:
“Warming may induce sudden shifts in regional weather patterns such as the
monsoon rains in South Asia or the El Nino phenomenon” (Stern, 2006).
As temperatures rise, melting glaciers will initially increase flood risk and then strongly
reduce water supplies. Ice caps are already retreating and many mountain peaks such
as Kilimanjaro have changed dramatically over the last 50 years. Global snow cover has
decreased by 10% in the same period. Rising sea levels will result in tens to hundreds of
millions more people flooded each year. There will be serious risks and increasing
pressures for coastal protection in South East Asia (Bangladesh and Vietnam), small
islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific, and large coastal cities, such as Tokyo, New
York, Cairo and London. According to one estimate, by the middle of the century, 200
million people may become permanently displaced due to rising sea levels, heavier
floods, and more intense droughts.
Even in the UK, anecdotal evidence suggests that the 1990s and the earliest years of the
21st century are ones in which water cycle effects are becoming more common. Flash
floods have occurred in Boscastle in Devon, in Carlisle and in York. In a BAU scenario
infrastructure damage from flooding and storms is expected to increase substantially,
especially in coastal regions. Although flood management policies including defences
have been introduced across the UK in recent years in an attempt to minimize potential
damage it will be interesting to see how effective they are – the basis of the designs and
the assumptions supporting the designs are changing rapidly. The increased frequency
of use of the Thames Barrier in London provides one insight into the effects of some of
the changes that have occurred over the last 25 years. From an initial use of once every
two years in the 1980s the barrier is now used on average six times per year and its use
has peaked at ten times per year in 1999.
Water availability is expected to be increasingly constrained, as runoff in summer
declines, particularly in the South East of England where population density is increasing
and serious droughts will occur more regularly.
Many coastal countries across Europe are also vulnerable to rising sea levels. The
Netherlands, where 70% of the population would be threatened by a 1-metre sea level
rise, is most at risk. Melting Alpine snow waters and more extreme rainfall patterns
could lead to more frequent flooding in major river basins such as the Danube, Rhine
and Rhone. Winter tourism will be severely affected across the Alpine region.
At higher temperatures, extreme weather events are likely to occur with greater
frequency and intensity. Munich Re has examined in detail the costs, in terms of
insurance, of climate related events and concludes that:
“in the longer term, the number of severe weather-related natural catastrophes
is set to increase due, among other things, to global warming. Combined with
further increasing concentrations of values in exposed areas, this means
continually rising loss potentials. Even apparently contradictory events in Europe,
such as the huge snow-pressure losses at the beginning of 2006 and the
extremely warm start to this winter, with the potential for severe winter storms,
fit into this pattern”
Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was the costliest weather catastrophe on record, totaling
$125 billion in economic losses (approximately 1.2% of US GDP). By the end of August,
Katrina had reached a Category 5 status (the most severe) with peak gusts of 340 km per
hour, in large part driven by the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf (1 – 3°C above
the long-term average). Katrina maintained its force as it passed over the oilfields off
the Louisiana coast, but dropped to a Category 3 hurricane when it hit land. New
Orleans was severely damaged when the hurricane-induced 10-metre storm-surge
broke through the levees and flooded several quarters (up to 1 km inland). Estimates
have indicated that more than 1,300 people died as a result of the hurricane and over
one million people were displaced from their homes. The US Earth Policy Institute
estimates that 375,000 people have been lost in the three counties affected in
Mississippi and that 250,000 former residents of New Orleans have established homes
elsewhere and will not return.
Stern indicates that the increased costs of damage from extreme weather such as
storms, hurricanes, typhoons and floods counteract some early benefits of climate
change and will increase rapidly at higher temperatures. Based on simple
extrapolations, costs of extreme weather alone could reach 0.5 - 1% of world GDP per
annum by the middle of the century, and will keep rising if the world continues to warm.
• A 5 or 10% increase in hurricane wind speed, linked to rising sea temperatures, is
predicted approximately to double annual damage costs, in the USA.
• In the UK, annual flood losses alone could increase from 0.1% of GDP today to 0.2 0.4% of GDP once the increase in global average temperatures reaches 3 or 4°C.
Increasing Global Temperatures
Stern indicates that there are some areas of the globe that could benefit initially from
increasing temperatures. In higher latitude regions, such as Canada, Russia and
Scandinavia, climate change may lead to net benefits for temperature increases of 2 or
3°C, through higher agricultural yields, a decrease in cold-related deaths, lower heating
requirements, and a possible boost to tourism. However, these regions will also
experience the most rapid rates of warming, damaging infrastructure, human health,
local livelihoods and biodiversity.
Developing regions are at a geographic disadvantage as they are already warmer, on
average, than developed regions and they also suffer from high rainfall variability. As a
result, further warming will bring poor countries high costs and few benefits. These
regions are also heavily dependent on agriculture, the most climate-sensitive of all
economic sectors. Declining crop yields, especially in Africa, could leave hundreds of
millions without the ability to produce or purchase sufficient food.
At mid to high latitudes, crop yields may increase for moderate temperature rises (2 3°C), but then decline with greater amounts of warming. At 4°C and above, global food
production is likely to be seriously affected. Developed countries in lower latitudes will
be more vulnerable - for example, water availability and crop yields in southern Europe
are expected to decline by 20% with a 2°C increase in global temperatures. Regions
where water is already scarce will face serious difficulties and growing costs. Diseases
such as malaria and dengue fever could become more widespread if effective control
measures are not in place.
Even in the UK increasing average temperatures are already evident, surface
temperatures over central England have risen by 1°C over the last century (IPCC 2001,
Hulme et al, 2002). In the summer of 2003, a new temperature record of 38.5°C was set
in the UK. Rising summer temperatures and prolonged mild spells resulted in the year
of 2006 in the UK being the warmest on record with a mean temperature of 10.84 °C.
This exceeded the previous two joint hottest years, both in the recent past - 1990 and
1999. Rising temperatures have not been the only consequence. There is strong UK
evidence for changing rainfall patterns and extremes of climate. Because of accelerated
climate change, it has been suggested by the UK’s Royal Society that:
“Many regions and populations are already beyond acceptable thresholds of
exposure to climatic risk’ (Royal Society, 2002).
The UK can expect warmer and wetter winters along with warmer and drier summers,
with the average annual temperature rising by between 2°C and 3.5°C by 2080 (Hulme
et al, 2002). Milder winters will reduce cold-related mortality rates and energy demand
for heating, while heat-waves will increase heat-related mortality.
Stern reports that the UK’s high temperatures of 2003 were repeated across Europe.
Over a three-month period in the summer, Europe experienced exceptionally high
temperatures, on average 2.3°C hotter than the long-term average. In the past, a
summer as hot as 2003 would be expected to occur once every 1000 years, but climate
change has already doubled the chance of such a hot summer occurring (now once
every 500 years). By the middle of the century, summers as hot as 2003 will be
commonplace. The deaths of around 35,000 people across Europe were brought
forward because of the effects of the heat (often through interactions with air
pollution). Around 15,000 people died in Paris, where the urban heat island effect
sustained nighttime temperatures and reduced people’s tolerance for the heat the
following day. In France, electricity became scarce because of a lack of water needed to
cool nuclear power plants. Farming, livestock and forestry suffered damages of $15
billion from the combined effects of drought, heat stress and fire.
The heat island effect demonstrated in Paris is likely to become more common. People
living and working in urban areas will be particularly susceptible to increases in heatrelated mortality because of the interaction between regional warming, the urban heat
island and air pollution. In California, a warming of around 2°C relative to pre-industrial
is expected to extend the heat wave season by 17 – 27 days and cause a 25 - 35% rise in
high pollution days, leading to a 2 to 3-fold increase in the number of heat related
deaths in urban areas. In the UK, for a global temperature rise of 3°C, temperatures in
London could be up to 7°C warmer than today because of the combined effect of
climate change and the urban heat island effect, meaning that comfort levels will be
exceeded for people at work for one-quarter of the time on average in the summer. In
years that are warmer than average or at higher temperatures, office buildings could
become difficult to work in for large spells during the summer without additional airconditioning or cooling. In already-dry regions, such as parts of the Mediterranean and
South East England, hot summers will further increase soil drying and subsidence
damage to properties that are not properly underpinned.
Eco Systems
Ecosystems will be particularly vulnerable to climate change, with around 15-40% of
species potentially facing extinction after only 2°C of warming. Ocean acidification, a
direct result of rising carbon dioxide levels, will have major effects on marine
ecosystems, with possible adverse consequences on fish stocks.
Irreversible losses of biodiversity are expected, including bleaching of coral reefs, loss of
mangrove swamps and impacts on fish populations. Changes in the polar regions are
expected to be the largest and the most rapid.
Glossary of Terms (from Buchdahl, 2002)
Greenhouse Effect: the common term given to the phenomenon whereby certain gases
(particularly carbon dioxide but also methane, ozone and others) build up in the lower
atmosphere and prevent heat from the sun’s rays from escaping into space. Scientists
fear that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases may increase the average
global temperature and lead to changes in the earth’s climate and weather patterns.
Global Warming: is the term given to the major consequence of the greenhouse effect.
Scientists have long predicted and recently measured notable increases in the world's
temperature. While the term 'global warming' does go some way to describe the
impacts of the greenhouse effect, climate change is a more accurate term.
Climate Change: describes the full extent of the implications of the greenhouse effect.
Whilst the average temperature of the earth may increase, it is the changes in the
earth’s climate systems that will be most dramatic. Extreme weather events such as
droughts, floods, cyclones and frosts may effect areas previously unaffected or strike
with increased frequency. Rising sea levels may affect rainfall patterns, soil erosion and
local ecosystems.
Fossil Fuels: the minerals which human society uses to generate most of our energy
needs. Coal, oil (which is used to produce petroleum), natural gas, methane and diesel
are all examples of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels consist of a long chemical structure that
contains carbon. When oxidised with oxygen (burnt), carbon dioxide (CO2) is given off
as a waste gas. CO2 is a chief greenhouse gas. Fossil fuels are most commonly used to
generate electricity and power motor vehicles.
Global Warming Potential: all greenhouse gases contribute to the 'trapping' of infrared
radiation, hence heat, in the lower atmosphere. Due to the relative sizes of the
greenhouse gas molecules, some trap more than other. Methane for instance has ten
times the Global Warming Potential (GWP) of carbon dioxide - carbon dioxide is the
base used to compare greenhouse gases.
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