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Chapter 14 Notes The Changing Climate Glaciers Are Still Sculpting Mt. Rainier in Washington Climate not only varies from place to place, but it is naturally variable over time. Over the great expanse of Earth’s history, and long before humans were roaming the planet, there were many shifts—from warm to cold and from wet to dry and back again. Although climate has a significant impact on people, people also have a strong influence on climate. Climate changes in the geologic past were natural variations, but today climate change is dominated by human influences that are sufficiently large that they exceed the bounds of natural variability. Components of Earth’s Climate System There is a climate system that includes the atmosphere, hydrosphere, solid Earth, biosphere, and cryosphere. The climate system involves the exchanges of energy and moisture that occur among the five spheres. These exchanges link the atmosphere to the other spheres so that the whole functions as an extremely complex interactive unit. The climate system provides a framework for the study of climate. Changes in the climate system do not occur in isolation. Rather, when on part changes, the other components also react. Temperature Variations over Past 40,000 Years Detecting Climate Change High-tech and precision instrumentation are now available to study the composition and dynamics of the atmosphere, but in order to determine how Earth’s climate changed in the past different tools must be used. To understand past climate changes scientists must use indirect evidence. This evidence comes from natural recorders of climate variability such as seafloor sediments, glacial ice, fossil pollen, and tree-growth rings. Paleoclimatology - the study of ancient climates; the study of climate and climate change prior to the period of instrumental records using proxy data The main goal of paleoclimatologists is to understand the climate of the past in order assess the current climate and potential future climate in the context of natural climate variability. Past Climates Can Be Studied with Tree-Rings Sources of Proxy Data 1) Seafloor sediment – seafloor sediments contain the remains of organisms that once lived near the sea surface. 2) Oxygen isotope analysis – a measurement of the ratio between to isotopes of oxygen: O-16 and O-18. This ratio tells climatologist something the amount of fresh water present and temperature 3) Glacial Ice – the ice provides a detailed record of changing air temperatures and snowfall. 4) Tree rings – characteristics of each ring reflect the environmental conditions that prevailed during the year when the ring formed. 5) Fossil pollen – climate is a major factor influencing the distribution of vegetation, so knowing the nature of the plant community occupying an area is a reflection of the climate. 6) Corals – useful information on past climate conditions are determined by analyzing the changing chemistry of coral reefs with depth Past Supercontinent Pangaea Natural Causes of Climate Change Natural mechanisms of climate change are causes of change unrelated to human activities and may include: 1) Plate tectonics – rearranging of Earth’s continents, moving them closer or farther away from the equator or poles 2) Volcanic activity – changing the reflectivity of the atmosphere and reducing the solar radiation that reaches the surface 3) Variations in Earth’s orbit – the natural, cyclic change in our planet’s orbit, axial tilt, and wobble 4) Solar variability – variations in the Sun’s radiation output, and the effects on radiation output by sunspots. Rise in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide since Industrial Revolution Human Impact on Global Climate Human influence on regional and global climate did not just begin with the onset of the modern industrial period. There is evidence that people have been modifying the environment over extensive areas for thousands of years. These modifications include the use of fire, overgrazing of marginal lands by domesticated animals, and the altering of ground cover (clear cutting forests) for agricultural purposes. Starting around the year 1800, humans started changing the composition of the atmosphere by introducing massive quantities of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Americans Are Responsible for about 25 percent of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Carbon dioxide (CO2)is a product of combustion reactions that occur when fossil fuels are burned. Fossil fuels in wood, coal, and the distillation products of petroleum (gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil). Carbon dioxide is also a greenhouse gas, a gas that absorbs reflected energy traveling from Earth’s surface back out into space. So, as the amount of CO2 increases the amount of heat held in Earth’s lower atmosphere increases, and consequently, the average surface temperature of Earth increases. Global Temperature Changes Data collected indicates that the increasing levels in carbon dioxide have resulted in an increase of average global surface temperature. The data includes: 1) Since 1850, twelve of the last thirteen years (1995-2007) rank among the thirteen warmest 2) Global mean temperature is now higher than at any time in at least the 500 to 1,000 years 3) The average temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3,000 meters Coal Mining and Oil Drilling Are Sources of Methane Trace gases and global warming The industrial and agricultural activities of people are causing the build-up of several trace gases that may also play a significant role in the increase of surface temperatures. These gases include methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). 1) Methane is produced by anaerobic bacteria in wet places--swamps, bogs, rice paddies-- where oxygen is scarce, from mining and drilling processes, and the guts of everything from termites to cattle. 2) Nitrous oxide has its source in the use of nitrogen-based fertilizers and in high-temperature combustion of fossil fuels. 3) CFCs are not a natural component of the atmosphere, but are introduced by human activities. The role of CFCs in the depletion of stratospheric ozone is well known, but their role as a greenhouse gas has just recently been recognized. Springtime Breakup of Sea Ice near Antarctica Climate-Feedback Mechanism Climate is a very complex interactive physical system; when any component of the climate system is altered, many possible outcomes must be considered. These outcomes are called climate-feedback mechanisms. One possible climate-feedback mechanism related to greenhouse gases: 1) Warmer surface temperatures increase evaporation rates 2) This results in more water vapor in the atmosphere. Water vapor is a greenhouse gas. 3) So, with more water vapor in the atmosphere, the temperature increase caused by CO2 and trace gases is reinforced. Positive feedback mechanisms reinforce the initial change, while negative feedback mechanism work to counteract the initial change. Changes in Extent of Arctic Sea Ice at the End of the Summer Melting Consequences of Global Warming Predicting specific regional changes in climate is difficult because of the complexity of the climate system. However, some possible consequences of greenhouse warming include: 1) Altering the distribution of the world’s water resources 2) A significant rise in sea level 3) A greater intensity of tropical cyclones 4) Changes in the extent of Arctic sea ice and permafrost