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Download Climate change, fires, and carbon aerosol over N. America
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Climate change, fires, and carbon aerosol over N. America with preliminary detour to discuss GCAP model development (GCAP= Global change and air pollution) GCAP phase 2: Daniel Jacob (PI), Loretta Mickley, Shiliang Wu, Daewon Byun, David Rind, Joshua Fu, John Seinfeld, David Streets, Moeko Yoshitomi, Havala Pye, Hong Liao, Yum-Fat Lam (Nicky), Hyun Cheol, et al. Landcover project: Loretta Mickley, Shiliang Wu, Jed Kaplan, Daniel Jacob Wildfire project: Jennifer Logan (PI), Dominick Spracklen, Rynda Hudman, Loretta Mickley, Daewon Byun, David Diner, Qinbin Li GCAP Phase 2: How will global change affect U.S. air quality? Focus is on both climate change + changes in precursor and POA emissions. past atmospheres GISS general circulation model 1950 Spin-up 2000 changing greenhouse gases 2025 2050 Wu et al. 2007a, b, c Pye et al., 2007 2100 MM5 Mesoscale model archive met fields Precursor emissions from Streets 2075 GEOS-CHEM Global chemistry model archive chemistry archive met fields CMAQ Regional chemistry model GCAP is now part of standard model. Please keep us in the loop if you use GISS met!! Land cover variation of GCAP: How will climate change affect future land cover? What are the chem-climate interactions of land cover change? GISS general circulation model 1950 Spin-up 2000 Apply19502100 met fields + CO2 veg LPJ type + vegetation LAI model changing greenhouse gases 2025 2050 2100 Recalculate 2000-2100 climate Archive met fields GEOS-CHEM Global chemistry model Anthro emissions 2075 Ozone and aerosol (including dust) Chemistry fields + land cover change will be fed back into GCM. First results from link between GISS GCM + LPJ Land Cover model collaboration with J. Kaplan 1995 2060 Tropical evergreen broadleaf Boreal evergreen needleleaf Increase in boreal evergreens Large increases in grassland Temperate grasses Fractional landcover for 3 vegetation types EPA wildfire project: How will changing forest fire frequency affect future air quality over the United States? Area burned and temperature in Canada over the last century Observed trends in temperature and area burned over Canada show large interannual variability. Most of the variability in wildfire frequency is due to year-to-year changes in surface temperatures and precipitation. Gillet et al., 2004 What will happen next? Dominick Spracklen developed a fire prediction tool to calculate area burned using GISS GCM meteorological variables. . . . 2050 and beyond Wildfires have a large impact on summertime organic carbon aerosol over western United States [Spracklen et al., 2007] Total OC [mg/m3], mean over all IMPROVE sites We derive interannually varying wildfire emissions over the western United States using observed areas burned [Westerling et al., 2003]. We then apply these emissions to GEOS-Chem. Observed OC Model OC, with interannually varying fires Results show an improved match between observed and modeled organic aerosol concentrations, compared to calculations with climatological fires. Model OC, with climatological fires In high fire years, forest fire OC account for 50-60% of total particle concentrations over the IMPROVE sites in the western United States. Dominick’s Fire Prediction tool for the western U.S: 1) Regress observed met variables and drought indices against linear area burned 2) Choose best predictors for each ecosystem. 3) Archive these predictors from GISS GCM for future climate. Regressions ‘explain’ 50-60% of variability in annual area burned in forest ecosystems. Best predictors are often temperature or Fuel Moisture Index. May-Oct mean obs Drought Code 1980 1990 2000 Area burned / 106 Ha Sample results for Pacific Northwest/Cascade Forests. 0.5 observations R2=52% model May-Oct Area burned 0.25 1980 1990 2000 May-Oct mean obs Temperature 1980 1990 2000 Variation of GCAP model to predict climate change impacts on forest fires and air quality GISS general circulation model 1950 Spin-up Area Burned Regressions Predict Area Burned 2000 changing greenhouse gases (A1 scenario) 2025 2050 archive met fields 2100 Organic carbon aerosol from wildfires. GEOS-CHEM Global chemistry model archive chemistry Calculate emissions 2075 Fields will be fed back into GISS GCM to calculate chem-climate interactions. Predicted mean biomass consumption by wildfires over the western United States for 2045-2054 is 50% greater than for 1996-2004. Annual total biomass consumed by forest fires, 1996-2055 Use stochastic placement of wildfires within ecosystem and ecosystem specific fuel loads. Plot shows standardized departures from the 1996-2055 mean. Predicted changes to summertime (June-Aug) Organic Carbon concentrations over the US from GCAP model Current (1996-2000) Future (2046-2050) Largest increases over Rockies and Pacific Northwest. Future-current Future / current Dr. Hudman will continue this work with full chemistry GCAP model. Summertime OC concentrations predicted to increase by ~30% over western US. Conclusions • In western United States, interannual variability in summertime OC is driven by variability in fires. • Increased fires in western US since the mid 1980s has likely caused increase in summertime OC concentrations. • Regressions of annual area burned in western US capture 50-57% of interannual variablity. Temperature and fuel moisture are best predictors. • Using GISS GCM output, forest fire emissions of OC predicted to increase by 50% by 2045-2055 (over 1995-2004) resulting in mean summertime OC to increase by 30% over western United States. Extra slides Blueprint for model predicting forest fire area burned from met fields [Flannigan et al., 2005; Spracken et al., 2007] Observed daily Temperature, Wind speed, Rainfall, RH Observed area burned database (1o x 1o) Canadian Fire Weather Index System Aggregate area burned to ecosystem Models uses stepwise linear regression between meteorological/forest moisture variables & area burned Daily forest moisture parameters Linear stepwise regression Predictors of Area Burned Aggregated ecosystems (similar vegetation / climate) 12.8 151.6 6.7 105.8 4.8 51.8 17.5 25.4 3.6 11.6 4.5 9.8 Bailey (1994) classification 1980 – 2004 Totals [Westerling et al., 2002] Area Burned / 106 acres Biomass consumed/ Tg Over the western U.S., the Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountain Forests are the most important regions for biomass consumption in wildfires. A1 scenario 1.8 oC control Rainfall / mm day-1 Temperature / oC Trends in GISS western US mean July meteorological variables GISS GCM predicts ~1.8 oC increase in July surface temperatures over western United States. How do these changes impact wildfires? Trends in annual area burned for two regions, 1980-2055 observations model +50% anomalous year 2045-2054 compared to 1995-2004 +90% All ecosystems across the western US show increases in Area Burned between ~5 and 90% due to increasing temperatures. Predicted summertime Organic Carbon concentrations averaged across western United States for present-day and future (2046-2050) 5 year mean 2047 2048 2049 2050 2.0 OC [mg/m3] 2046 +30% +10% 1.5 1.0 About two-thirds of the predicted 30% increase in summertime OC is due to increasing wildfire emissions. The rest is due to change in climate and changes in monoterpene emissions.