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Long term modeling and transition towards a Low Carbon Society Semaine Athens module Changement climatique Christophe CASSEN Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) [email protected] Presentation schedule • Some insights on climate negotiations • The transition toward a LCS: lessons from the past and perspectives • Long term modeling: current development and interactions with the international negociations Overview of the Climate issue • Agenda setting and early international responses (1985-1990) • Constitutional phase: entry into force of the Convention on Climate Change (1990-1992) • Regulatory Phase: elaboration of the Kyoto Protocol (1997-2005) • The second constitutional phase: negotiation of the Future Climate Regime (2005-….) Agenda setting and early international responses: 1985-1990 • 1979 : First World Climate Conference (WMO) • 1985 : UNEP/WMO Conference • 1988 : G7 conference (Montreal) – Establishment of the IPCC • 1989: La Hague summit • 1990: Second World Climate Conference Dominated by Non governmental actor Intergovernmental issue Constitutional phase: negotiation and entry into force of the Convention on Climate change • Rio (1992): FCC (Framework on Climate Change) – Article 2: “The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. “ – Article 3: common but differentiated responsibilities between annex 1 and non annex 1 countries • Equity concerns Global emissions of carbon dioxide and methane (1850-2000) Sources: Marland et al. (2007): Houghton (2008), Stern and Kaufmann (1998) CO2 emission per capita per year per country http://greening.tafesa.edu.au/ Regulatory Phase: Elaboration of the Kyoto Protocol • The Kyoto Protocol (1997) – Binding reduction targets for Annex I countries 2008-2012 (EU 15 -8%/1990, USA -6%, Canada -7%, Allemagne -21%, Espagne +15%) ) EU vision – Flexible mechanisms: emission trading, JI US vision • Marrakech accords (2001) : adoption of the detailed rules of Kyoto Protocol • CDM : clean development mechanism • The US exits from the process (2001) • Byrd-Hagel amendment (1997): US involvment depends on developing countries’ ones • The Kyoto Protocol enters into force (2004) The second constitutional phase: negotiation the Future Climate Regime • 2007: Bali Roadmap, relaunch of the negotiations – Mitigation/Adaptation/Technological transfer/ Financing • 2009: Copenhagen, a failure? – Rising influence of the BASICS / Europe marginalized – A non official text: includes the 2K objective – Copenhagen pledges • 2010: Cancun, a call for a « paradigm shift » • 2011: the Durban Platform, toward a global agreement by 2020? Three dynamics unchanged since 1988… • Divisions: – Within the industrialize country group: supporters/opponents of binding, quantitative limits on GHG: US vs EU – Industrialized/developing countries over their respective responsibilities for adressing CC – Amonsgt developing countries those concerned more about climate change/development and poverty eradication: BASICS vs AOSIS Conclusions • A long time process, climate regime still in evolution • Limits of the FCC to foster sense of community: more achievement outside (G8…) • A process questioned for its complexity • Toward a decentralized bottom up process rather than a global international negotiation? Presentation schedule • Some insights on climate negotiations • The transition toward a LCS: lessons from the past and perspectives • Long term modeling: current development and interactions with the international negociations A transition toward a LCS? « The switch from an economic system dependent on one or a series of energy sources and technologies to another » …a basic definition A context favourable to a transition toward a LCS? • The urgency of climate change: the 2K objective, European energy-climate objectives, French F4, Energiewende • What energy mix for the transition after Fukushima ? • Debate around the peak oil • Global Economic uncertainties: a window of opportunity for a green economy ? Lessons from past transitions : the British industrial revolution (19th century) • From biomass to coal • Combination of many factors: – – – – – – new technologies (steam engine, coal grates) favourable labor market: aboundant labor forces agricultural progress relatively cheaper energy resources (coal) adequate financing system intellectual and social values • The transition was not smooth : – unplanified process – empoverishment of the working class – delayed diffusion in other countries (France) The nature of the transitions • A long time process • An increase in global energy consumption • Winners and losers • A combination of technological, institutional and social features : a wider economic and social transformation Global energy consumption and transition, 1800-2010 Source : Fouquet (2009) Source: Grübler, 2012 Open questions • Differences between past and future transitions? • How representing future changes? What tools and expertise can be mobilized? Presentation schedule • Some insights on climate negotiations • The transition toward a LCS: lessons from the past and perspectives • Long term modeling: current development and interactions with the international negociations Energy/Development debate in the 70’s • A turmoil context: – Increasing awareness of environmental issues (Silent Spring…) – Energy tensions (first and second oil chock) – Economic uncertainties (beginnning of structural unemployment) – The opposition between developed countries and the third world around the development issues: the Stockolm conference (1972) Energy/Development debate in th 70’s • Limits to Growth (Meadows/Club de Rome) : a reference report – The current trend of economic growth conducts to a deadlock by 2100 – A model based on dynamic systems (Forrester) • Highly controversial: – Underestimate technological progress – Poor representation of economic mechanisms – Underestimates the Heterogeneity of the world • Several modeling exercises answer to the report : Bariloche, Pesterovic… Source: Meadows, 1972 Two pioneers, two visions of long term pathways Amory Lovins (1976): Soft Energy Pathways – Energy efficiency, renewables, decentralized energy – Energy is but a means to social ends, and is not an end in itself William Nordhaus (1974): growth is the anwer – – – – Only a matter of bad technologies The DICE model: framing for future exercises Economic assessment of a climate objective The followers: Integrative assessment models: MERGE (Manne and Richels)… The computer revolution and the booming of modeling scenarios in the 90’s A permanence of « modeling tribes » OPTIMISATION Bottom Up (detailed sectors and technologies models) Sectorial Optimization (e.g. MARKAL) Top Down (global models , systemic effect) Optimal Growth (e.g. RICE) SIMULATION Partial equilibrium (e.g. POLES, TIMER, G-CAM) General equlibrium multisectorial (e.g. SGM, EPPA) Some key forum of expertise • International institutes: IIASA, OECD, World Bank, IEA (WEO) • International scientific programs: IPCC, Energy modeling forum • Frame the scientific (and political?) agenda A key framing structure: the IPCC • 1979 : First World Climate Conference (WMO) • 1985 : UNEP/WMO Conference ‘Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and of Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated Impacts’ • 1988 : G7 recommendation and the setting up of the IPCC at the 40th session WMO, with UNEP support Initial objectives • Identify: – uncertainties and scientific researches relating to climate needs – informations necessary to assess climate policies • Review policies implemented • Assess all implications of CC • Collaborate with other UN agencies and governments Structure • IPCC Bureau • Three Working Groups : – WGI : Scientific Assessment of CC – WGII : Impact assessment of CC – WGIII : Mitigation strategies to CC • SBSTA – Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA), – Interface between IPCC and UNFCCC : – Disseminate the conclusions of IPCC – Reframe the specifications of IPCC Writing process of the report • Each group divided in chapters with coordinating, lead and contributing authors • Strict appointment of experts • Long process of writing: a volunteer job! • Three reports: complete report, technical summary, and the summary for policy makers (SPM) The IPCC and Climate Negotiations Overview of the climate issue • • • • • • • • • • • • 1979 1st world conference on CC 1988: G7: launching of the « climate case » 1992: Rio de Janeiro: Climate Convention 1995: The Berlin warrant 1997: The Kyoto Protocol 2000: Half-failure of COP6 at La Haye 2001: Marrakech agreement (COP7) exit of USA 2004: Kyoto protocol ratified and applied 2005: G8 Gleneagle : the 2K objective 2009: Copenhagen: too much expectations 2010: Cancun: a call for a paradigm shift 2011: Durban: toward a global agreement by 2020 First challenge: assessing the cost of climate policies (early 90’s) • Optimism of “engineers” vs pessimism of “economists” • Technical cost vs macro-economic costs • What about the instruments? The debate around a carbon tax: the EU vs the USA First challenge: assessing the cost of climate policies (early 90’s) • 1990: The first IPCC report: set key frameworks elements (mitigation/adaptation, short term/long-term, sectorial potentials, emissions scenarios ) • Rio 1992: the climate convention « stabiliser les concentrations de gaz à effet de serre dans l’atmosphère à un niveau qui empêche toute perturbation anthropique dangereuse du système climatique […]dans un délai convenable pour que les écosystèmes puissent s’adapter naturellement […] et que le développement économique puisse se poursuivre de manière durable », (art.2, CNUCC). « les politiques et mesures prises pour faire face au changement climatique devraient être coût efficace de manière à assurer des bénéfices globaux au plus bas coût possible. », (art.3, CNUCC). Second challenge: timing of action IPCC Second Assessment Report (1995) • WGI – – – – Greenhouse effect due to anthropic emissions Forecast +0.3°C/decade [0.2,0.5] Forecast sea level rise +6cm/decade [3,10] Several uncertainties identified (well, oceans, clouds) • WGII : adaptation and mitigation – Majority of systems are sensitive to climate change – Several options available, depending on the future climate, institutions, and investments available • WGIII : socio-économic assessment of policies – Range of actions – Sequential policy making : uncertainty justifies the action The Kyoto protocol adopted in 1997 – COP 3 The Kyoto Protocol • The mandate of Berlin: quotas of emissions instead of an international carbon tax • Kyoto: commitments and flexibility mechanisms (CDM, JI) • Application to the modeling agenda: The When, Where and What flexibility strategies When flexibility? • Action timing : early vs delayed action • The alarmists vs the partisans for a « a wait and see » policy • What’s next after Kyoto? The cost of a delayed action Source: Recipe 2009 Where flexibility? • Different reduction potentials in sectors and countries • The problem of transfers between developed and developing countries • Toward an international carbon market or a fragmented regime? Transfers may appear prohibitive Source: Crassous 2009 A third challenge: what type of transition? Special Report on Emission Scenarios - 2000 – Complete review of the litterature of scenarios • IPCC data set – – – – Definition of 4 main ‘storylines’ 6 modeling teams mobilized Harmonization and review of 40 scénarios One representative scenario for each storyline defined Special Report on Emission Scenarios - 2000 Globalisation Globalised, extensive ‘Market-Forces’ ‘Sustainable development’ Regional, intensive Regional, extensive ‘Clash of civilisations’ ‘Mixed green bag’ Regionalisation /fragmentation Emphasis on Globalised, intensive sustainability and equity – Definition of 4 main ‘storylines’ Source : SRES, H. Kieken Special Report on Emission Scenarios - 2000 SRES Scenarios A1 A1C A1T Economic A1G A2 A1 Global Regional B1 B2 Dr y A og y (lan Te c h n ol er g y ic ulture gr d-use) P o p u a t i on l En Eco nom Environmental iving Forces Source : IPCC, 2000. Special Report on Emission Scenarios - 2000 – Data set of existing scenarios – Complete assessment of the literature The issues raised by the 2K objective The emergence of the 2K objective • From an objective in concentration to an objective in temperature (450ppm to the 2°C) • A political background: G8, EU… Fourth Report on Emission Scenarios - 2007 « Une stabilisation entre 710 et 445 ppm équiv.-CO2 en 2050 impliquerait, à l'échelle de la planète, des coûts macroéconomiques moyens se situant entre une hausse de 1 % et une baisse de 5,5 % du PIB mondial. Cela équivaut à un ralentissement de la progression moyenne du PIB mondial de moins de 0,12 point de pourcentage par an. » (AR4 WGIII SPM Box 3) Moderate stabilization costs t Optimism in reduction emission potentials • Current technologies are sufficient to stabilize concentrations Economic mitigation potential Potentiel in different sectors for different carbon prices in 2030, for all reference trajectories Source: McKinsey 2009 Cheap 2K? Yes … in a ‘first best’ world « The most ambitious pathways [350-450 ppm CO2] are possible » with a macroeconomic impact comprised between +0.5 and -3% of the GDP in 2030 with technologies currently known and a uniform carbon price between 5 and 80 $/tCO2 in 2030 … with a serious and ‘never read’ caveat : ‘Most models use a global least cost approach to mitigation portfolios and with universal emissions trading, assuming transparent markets, no transaction cost, and thus perfect implementation of mitigation measures throughout the 21st century.’ (AR4 WGIII SPM Box 3) Technologies are not the only way to reduce emissions • Behavioral obstacles • Bottlenecks, lock in • Technical progress is not a manna from heaven! Information gap in the residential sector 65% 90% Source: Giraudet 2010 49 Technologies are not the only way to reduce emissions • Behavioral obstacles • Bottlenecks, lock in • Technical progress is not a manna from heaven! Early investissement, bottlenecks and maturation of the EV industry Max market share of EV in solds Uncertainty on the triggering date of the EV penetration Source: vogt et al 2009 years Next 10 years are crucial: CO2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Stations built prior to 2015 in China & India 6 000 million tonnes of CO2 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 2006 2015 2030 Existing power plants © OECD/IEA - 2007 2045 2060 2075 Power plants built in 2005-2015 Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology & largely determine emissions through 2050 & beyond Source: WEO 2007 Technologies are not the only way to reduce emissions • Behavioral obstacles • Bottlenecks, lock in • Technical progress is not a manna from heaven! 2K objective: unreachable? • Depends on the GHG emissions trajectories • Delayed action means stronger negative emissions in the long term • Questionable availability of biomass and CCS Copenhagen pledges Becareful of targets ! Source: OECD Current issues not (or rarely) addressed in the climate policy literature The climate/development Gordian Knot: Weak representation of medium-run dynamics: a lack of insights about the magnitude of transition costs Few attempts to use models of a non-perfect world with imperfect foresight and disequilibria: the case of baselines with imperfections Towards hybrid models? Technological precision BU models Idéal model Behavioural realism TD models Macroeconomic feedbacks Source: Hourcade Conclusion • A community confronted to great challenges to inform the post Kyoto discussions : – Need a better understanding of the transition by models, especially in developing countries – More linking international framework and domestic policies – Think more in a second best world • Objectives of AR5 – integration of WG I, II, III and linking global and regional scale – Toward commun scenarios ? General Conclusion • Consensus on anthropogenic climate change but international negotiations seem to be close to a deadlock • The transition toward a low carbon society raises the issue of : – The adequacy betwen long term development and climate objectives in particular for developing countries – The design of climate policies to tackle the complexity of drivers • Long term Modeling supports decision making – A great amount of scenarios since twenty years – Modeling choices also reflect different visions of the world – Contributes to « build » climate change issue