Download Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation Sector

Climate Change its impact:
Issues and Implications
Dr. Murali G. Ranjitkar
Visiting fellow- NASC
Table of Content

Definition of climate change

The Feature of Climate Change



Climate Change and its Impact on
Infrastructures Development
Climate Change: The Global Warming
Himalayas, More Vulnerable to
Climate Change
2
Nepal, More Vulnerable to
Climate Change
 Impact of Climate Change:
Stress and Vulnerability
 Impact of Climate Change:
Irrigation
 Impact of Climate Change:
Agriculture
 Impact on other Infrastructure
development

3
The Policy
 Climate Change: The Adaptation
Methods
 Initiatives for Climate Change
Adaptation
 Conclusions
 Some Recommendations

4


Climate, an Overall Atmospheric
Environment; a Nature’s Safeguard
System to all Living beings on the
Earth
A Dynamic Phenomenon creating a
dynamic balance within the ecology
and ecosystem of species and
vegetations
5
The balance between the major
ingredients for species including
human being [Oxygen (O2)] and the
vegetation [Carbon dioxide (CO2)], and
other players such as Nitrogen (N2),
Methane (NH4) and others
 The Change in these atmospheric
ingredients and the consequent
imbalance or new type of balance
among them leading to uncomfortable
impact on the overall living beings on
the Earth

6


Climate Change is primarily associated
with the vertical shift in temperature,
rainfall pattern and humidity.
The dynamic equilibrium within the
solar system and among such systems
in the galaxy or the celestial universe
suggests that such change is a normal
phenomenon.
7
However, the emission of green house
gases (GHG) has been found to
aggravate the situation by triggering
corrosion in the ozone layer that
encircles and guards the earth
atmosphere for all living beings.
 Now, with the emissions going on
unabated, the climate change feature
has surfaced and felt more than ever.

8
Dffgj ;[lht pT;h{gsf] k|efj
k|fs[lts xl/t u[x UofF; k|efj
;"o{
;"o{
jfo'd08n
k[lYjsf] ;tx
k[lYjsf] tfkqmd ;Gt'lnt /x]sf]
Design & modified by RN
k[lYjsf] ;tx
k[lYjsf] tfkqmddf a[l4 ePsf]
All the infrastructure development is
not possible without water.
 Change in source water, surface or
underground, directly affects on
infrastructure development.
 About 75 – 80% of rainfall takes place
during four months (June-September)
of the year resulting in highly uneven
fluctuations to the rivers and streams.

10


With Climate Change, owing to
heating, the waters at the sources
would either dry up or deplete causing
stress at the downstream.
The stress eventually would lead to
dispute and conflict.
11
If]qut cfwf/df
ljZje/ pT;h{g x'g] xl/tu[x UofF;sf] dfqf
j g, 17.4
km
f]x/, 2.8
phf{, 25.9
s[lif , 13.5
pBf]
u
, 19.4
>f]t M IPCC 2007
oft foft , 13.1
zx/ t yf 3/
7.9
14






Economic based on Natural resources,
Agriculture and Tourism
Sensitive to Flood, Landslide, Soil erosion and
Drought
Limited resources to control natural
calamities
Remote areas- Not so accessible for prompt
service and rescue
Low community awareness, specific study
and research on climate change
Lack of effective plan and program
Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation
Sector
15



The statement that Nepal is more
vulnerable to climate change is founded
on that 87% of the country’s terrain is
mountains and Himalayas.
Nepal is expected to experience an
annual rise in temperature of 0.06 0C. in
coming years
The overall trend is towards warming
drier years ahead.
16

One burning example has come in the
news (Republica, June 1, 2010):
In the first recognized case of climate
change refugees in Nepal,
The entire village of Dhe (HH: 23;
Population: 150) in Sukhang VDC in
Upper Mustang, is being resettled in
Thengchung in Lower Mustang.
17
Rise in Temperature
 Predictions based on Regional Climate
Models:

◦ Temperatures in Indian Sub Continent
will rise by between 3.5 – 5.5 0C by
2100
◦ Temperatures in Tibbetan Plateau, by
2.5 0C by 2050 and 5 0C by 2100
◦ With 2 0C rise in temperature by 2050,
35% of the present glaciers will have
melt resulting in increase in the runoff.
19
The region known as Greater Himalaya
is the source of the nine largest rivers
in Asia, the basins of which are home
to over 1.3 billion people (ICIMOD,
Technical Paper, 2007)
 Approximately 2.4 billion people live
in the drainage basin of the Himalayan
Rivers (Prof. Dr. Bidur Upadhyay, THT,
June 3, 2010)

20
Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation
Sector
21
hnjfo' kl/jt{gsf c;/x?M lxdtfn
@)!#sf] ODhf lxdtfn
@)^# sf] ODhf lxdtfn
The Himalayan rivers of Nepal
contribute about 40% of the average
annual flow in the Ganges basin; and
about 70% of the flow in the dry
season
 Mean temperatures decline by about 1
0C per 160m elevation (longitude)
compared with 1 0C per 150 Km by
latitude.

23

3 Effects:
◦ “The
sources
of
water
have
completely dried up.”
◦ “It is getting extremely difficult for
people to even arrange two meals a
day”
◦ There is hardly any greenery to be
seen around the village, which just
seven years back used to be very
green.” Amchi Tenjin Dharke.
24
Besides, much of Nepal’s soils are
exposed to extra vulnerability owing
to their
 steep slopes,
 deforestation
 erratic precipitation
 high floods

25
Clearly from the Mustang example,
the first stress is on the declining
water flow in source rivers
 The stress is then transferred down to
agriculture, greenery, infrastructure
development and to the living of the
people in general

26
On the other hand, again, stress is
also
developed
owing
to
thunderstorms, the emergent high
floods and the droughts along with
their frequencies
 All these, increase the exposure to the
risk
and
vulnerability
to
the
infrastructures development

27

Warming trend:
 Stress due to water resource depletion at
source
 Water sufficiency will be hampered
 Wetland will dry up and greenery will
decline
 Infrastructure may become useless
 On the contrary, retreat or melting of the
glaciers will cause high flood flows in
snow-fed rivers posing challenge to the
previous designs and estimates of the
infrastructures
28

Unpredictability:
 Unexpected
thunderstorms
and
cloudbursts will cause unpredictable
flash floods leading to soil erosion
and endangering the infrastructures
 Hailstones and storms will destroy
the crops
 Droughts will cause severe stress
and
overturn
the
hard-earned
balance between water source,
irrigation and the cropland
29
◦ The duration between sowing and
harvesting of the crop will shorten
causing an adverse effect on its
productivity, ex. apple
◦ Shift in flower blossoming season, ex.
rhododendron (shifted to from Chaitra
back to Poush)
◦ Rise in temperature and humidity gives
rise to proliferation of the anti crop
insects and fungi
◦ Evapotranspiration, photosynthesis and
biomass production is changed
30



Warming Trend
◦ Land suitability is altered
An Opportunity: “Carbon fertilization effect”
◦ Increased CO2 levels lead to a positive growth
response for a number of staples under
controlled conditions
Unpredictability
◦ Almost all crops are vulnerable to the
unpredictable precipitation, thunderstorms and
droughts
◦ In the year 2010, Mustang has reported
expectation of around 50% increase in apple
production; normal monsoon predicted.
31
Increase in temperature
 Change in precipitation
 Melting of glacier
 Soil carbon stock
 Increase in photosynthesis
 Upward movement in biomass
 Alteration in species composition

Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation
Sector
32
Road development
 Urban development
 Hydro power development
 Water supply and sanitation
development
 Industrial development
 Tourism development
 Local development activities

33




Study the climate change trend particularly the
temperature change (rise or fall) in relation
with elevation (longitude) and the horizontal
distance (latitude)
Also, identify the risk and vulnerable zones in
relation to the high flood flows, debris flows,
GLOF, avalanches and landslides
Design and adopt suitable technologies,
techniques and practices for all infrastructure
Design and adopt suitable crops, cropping
pattern and cropping methods
34




Nepal Government initiated the efforts
towards conserving environment since the
Sixth Periodic Plan
The efforts have been more focused
towards climate change and its adaptation
in Second Three Year Interim Plan (2010 –
2013).
Initiatives to raise awareness about climate
change and temperature rise to be specific
have been conducted and shall continue
Programs for National Adaptation Plan of
Action (NAPA) have been initiated and shall
continue in wider spectrum
35



The Second TYIP aims at encouraging the
concept of Green Development and thereby
minimizing the adverse effects of the
climate change and adapting with the
changes by making development works and
human activities more environment friendly
It intends to check the urban pollutions and
maintain the natural beauty of the rural
areas
Irrigation, Agriculture, Soil Conservation
and Hydrology/ Meteorology sectors will be
encouraged to coordinate among each
other.
36



Not much has been done for infrastructure
projects
For, agriculture projects and schemes, new
technology and techniques such as zero
tillage, shifting the sowing period, etc can
be adopted.
A dilemma. More vegetation contributes to
bringing a balance in atmosphere. More
area will be required for more vegetation
such as farming or afforestation. But, more
people owing to population growth will
need more land to be developed for
housing and cropping.
37


National Adaptation Plan of Action (NAPA)
Office has been established
IEE and EIA studies have been made
mandatory for all the infrastructure
development projects to ensure that the
natural environment is not damaged and to
make sure that at least minimum
requirements of environment conservation
and climate change adaptation, if any are
maintained while implementing them.
38







National policy on climate change
National Adaptation Program of Action
(NAPA)
Local Adaptation Program of Action (LAPA)
National Climate Change Support
Program(NCCSP)
Alternative energy promotion program
Pilot project on Carbon trading, Climate
adaptation
Awareness program on climate change
Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation
Sector
39



United nation Framework Convention on
climate change (UNFCCC)-1992- Sign
154 country
Kyoto Protocol-1997- World Convention
on GHG reduce @ 5.2% with respect to
1990
Climate adaptation fund for developing
country
Adapting Climate Change in Irrigation
Sector
40



Climate Change has direct and adverse
implication on infrastructure development
Adapting climate change in irrigation and
agriculture sectors is a challenge
With climate change gradually showing its
adverse effects, the risk reduction and
adaptation initiatives are a must
44


Plan, design and implement infrastructure
development projects ensuring not to
deteriorate rather to enhance or at least
maintain the minimum environmental balance
Plan adaptation measures along with
mitigation ones.
45


Plan and Allocate certain budget for the
research and studies for climate change and
devising adaptation frameworks
Establish a working network among
Infrastructure development sector road,
Hydropower, irrigation, disaster prevention,
hydrology-meteorology and soil conservation
sectors
46
Thank you
47