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January 6, 2016 Subject to revision The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs International Climate Change Policy Spring 2016 IAFF 6198.13, CRN 66720 Tuesdays 5:10-7:00 pm Room B17 at 1957 E St. Instructor: Dan Morrow Office: 1957 E St., Room 602 Office Hours: Tuesday, 4-5 pm or by appointment Email: [email protected] or [email protected] Telephone: 301-325-4444 Course description and desired learning outcomes Following a very brief review of the science of climate change, this course will: (1) examine economic analyses of policy options for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs); (2) review the history and status of international negotiations on climate change; (3) review the current mitigation policies of major emitting countries and their positions in the international negotiations; and (4) study key issues of mitigation policy. The course will take a policy-oriented, inter-disciplinary approach that gives weight to economic, political, and implementation considerations. Prior course work in economics is very desirable but not essential. By the end of the course, each student should be able to: o Describe how economists have analyzed alternative policies to mitigate climate change; o Explain the key conceptual challenges in economic analyses of climate change mitigation policy; o Analyze alternative policy instruments for reducing emissions of GHGs; o Summarize the history and current status of international negotiations related to climate change policy; o Analyze the interests and options for major GHG emitting countries with respect to climate change mitigation policy; o Provide in-depth analysis of a selected climate change mitigation policy issue that is of particular interest. 2 Information about the instructor Dan Morrow holds a PhD in Public Policy from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and a BA from Stanford University. From 1979 through 2002 he held various positions in The World Bank, including economist for Indonesian programs and division chief for operations in the Andean countries, and since 2002 he has served as a consultant to the World Bank. In 1997-98 he was a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and in 2014, a Visiting Fellow at the Center for Global Development. During 2003-2009 he taught courses on assessing the effectiveness of development assistance and on US policies toward developing countries at GWU’s Elliott School of International Affairs. In the spring semesters of 2012, 2013 and 2014 he taught a graduate course on International Climate Change Policy. Requirements and Grading In addition to reading the assigned materials, each student will be required to: 1. Complete two exams designed to test understanding of the required readings, the lectures, and the class discussions. These are take-home, open-book exams. The first exam covering the material from Sessions 1-6 will be due on Monday, February 22, and the second exam covering material from Sessions 7-10 will be due on Monday, March 21. 2. Participate in class debates on key issues about climate change policies and in class discussions. 3. Complete a group research project on a selected key issue of mitigation policy. Grades will be computed on the following basis: exams, 60%; class participation, 20%; and group research project, 20%. Letter grades will be awarded on a curve. Core Readings Each student should purchase the following book, which will be read in its entirety: o Nordhaus, William. 2013. The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World. New Haven: Yale University Press. (Nordhaus 2013) Substantial reading will also be required from: o Helm, Dieter, 2012. The Carbon Crunch: How We’re Getting Climate Change Wrong— and How to Fix It. New Haven: Yale University Press. o Stern, Nicholas, 2014. Why Are We Waiting? The Logic, Urgency, and Promise of Tackling Climate Change. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press All required and optional readings (except from Nordhaus 2013) will be available via Blackboard as PDF files or as hyperlinks 3 Outline of Sessions and Readings Session 1, January 12: Introduction to the course, and an extremely brief overview of the science of climate change Key questions: What are the objectives, structure and requirements of the course? What are the broadly held conclusions of the science of anthropogenic climate change, which constitute the scientific premises of the course? Required reading: o Section 1.2 (pp. 7-22), Section 3.27 (pp. 89-91), and Section 3.3 (pp. 91-96) in Dessler, Andrew, and Edward A. Parson, 2010. The Science and Politics of Global Climate Change: A Guide to the Debate. Second Edition. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Optional readings: o Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2013. “Summary for Policy Makers” in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC. o National Academy of Sciences, 2011. “Causes and Consequences of Climate Change,” Chapter 2 (pp. 15-24) in America’s Climate Choices. o Chapters 21-23 (pp. 419-470) in Daniel Yergin 2011. The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World. New York: The Penguin Press. Session 2, January 19: Projected physical impacts of climate change and possible tipping points Key questions: What are the likely and possible physical impacts of climate change? What are the risks of “tipping points” that would bring about catastrophic climate change? Debate topic: In considering the need for and urgency of strong mitigation policies, how much weight should be given to the risks of tipping points? Required readings: o Nordhaus 2013, Chapter 1-12. o IPCC, 2014. “Summary for policymakers” in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. o Lenton, T. M., H. Held, E. Kreigler, J.W. Hall, W. Lucht, S. Rahmstorf, and H.J. Schellnhuber. 2008. “Tipping Elements in the Earth’s Climate System,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 105(6) 1786-1793. http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.full.pdf 4 Optional readings: o National Research Council, 2013. “Summary” (pp. 1-14) from Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises. Washington DC: The National Academies Press. o Charles, Colleen W., ed., 2009. Chapters 3 and 4 in “Thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems”: Synthesis and Assessment Project 4.2, Report by the U. S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Session 3, January 26: Estimating the possible economic damages from climate change, and Nordhaus’s integrated assessment model of mitigation policies Key questions: How have economists attempted to estimate the likely economic damages caused by climate change? What are the key issues involved in attempting to quantify and model the long-term benefits and costs of climate change mitigation policies? How useful are such models for policy makers? Debate topic: How useful are recent efforts to estimate and model the economic damages of climate change? Required readings: o Nordhaus 2013. Chapters 6-12, pp. 69-148. o Houser, Trevor, et. al., 2015. Selected pages (TBD) in Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus. New York: Columbia University Press. o Stern, Nicholas, 2014. Chapter 4 in Why Are We Waiting? The Logic, Urgency, and Promise of Tackling Climate Change. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press. Optional readings: o “The Impacts of Climate Change,” Chapter 4 (pp. 69-98) in Nordhaus, William, and Joseph Boyer, 2000. Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press. o Chapter 1-7 (pp. 1-147) in Nordhaus, William, 2008. A Question of Balance: Weighing the Options on Global Warming Policies. New Have: Yale University Press. o Greenstone, Michael, Elizabeth Kopits, and Ann Wolverton, 2011. “Estimating the Social Cost of Carbon for US Regulatory Analysis: A Methodology and Interpretation,” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 7, Issue 1, Winter 2013, pp. 23-46. o Pindyck, Robert S., 2013. “Climate Change Policy: What Do the Models Tell Us?” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 19244, July 2013. http://www.nber.ogr/papers/w19244. 5 o Sterner, Thomas and U. Martin Persson, 2008. “An Even Sterner Review: Introducing Relative Prices into the Discounting Debate,” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 2 (1): 61-76. Session 4, February 2: Key conceptual issues in the economic evaluation of mitigation policies: the discount rate and decision-making under uncertainty; and discussion of possible group research projects Key questions: What are the issues involved in choosing a discount rate when evaluating long-term benefits and costs? What are useful approaches to decision-making under uncertainty and to evaluating the risk of catastrophic change? Debate topics: (1) In evaluating possible mitigation policies, should the discount rate (explicit or implicit) be low (say, 1%) or high (say, 4%)? (2) Is climate change different from other potentially catastrophic threats? Examples of possible group research projects: (1) What are the most promising avenues for international cooperation on RD&D for key mitigation-related technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), energy storage, and smart grids? (2) Are current arrangements for “climate finance” adequate? (3) Are the current plans for reducing deforestation likely to work? (4) How promising are on-going efforts of international collaboration to promote “climate smart” urban development? (5) Is natural gas a necessary bridge to a future of renewable energy, and should gas production and distribution be regulated to reduce “fugitive” methane? Required readings: o Nordhaus 2013. Chapter 16. o Cline, William, 2004. “Core Analytical Issues” (pp. 4-9) in “Meeting the Challenge of Global Warming,” Paper prepared for the Copenhagen Consensus program of the National Environmental Assessment Institute, Denmark, March. o IPCC 2014. “Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response Policies,” Chapter 2 in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. o Stern, Nicholas, 2014. Chapter 5 in Why Are We Waiting? The Logic, Urgency, and Promise of Tackling Climate Change. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press. o Lawson, Nigel, 2008. “Discounting the Future: Ethics, Risks and Uncertainty,” Chapter 7 (pp. 82-90) in An Appeal to Reason: A Cool Look at Global Warming. New York: Overlook Duckworth. 6 Optional readings: o Kunreuther, Howard, et. al., 2013, “Risk management and climate change,” Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, May 2013 and published online 24 March 2013 DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE1740 o Broome, John, selected pages, Climate Matters: Ethics in a Warming World. New York: W.W. Norton, 2012. o Weitzman, Martin L., 2011. “Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change,” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy Vol. 6, Issue 2, Summer 2011, pp. 275-292. o Nordhaus, William, 2011. “The Economics of Tail Events with an Application to Climate Change,” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 5, Issue 2, Summer 2011 pp. 240-257. Session 5, February 9: Plausible mitigation targets, possible mitigation technologies and their likely costs Key questions: What are plausible pathways for emissions reductions sufficient to reduce the pace and extent of climate change? What are the current and likely technological options in coming decades to reduce emissions and increase carbon sinks? What are the likely costs of deploying these technologies on a sufficient scale? Debate topics: (1) Is it useful to define the international goal as limiting likely global average temperature increase to 2 degrees? (2) Is it better to use public financial resources to subsidize deployment of existing technologies for renewable energy or to fund research and development of better technologies? Required readings: o IPCC, 2014. "Summary for Policymakers," in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. o Nordhaus 2013, Chapters 13-15, 17-18. o The Global Commission of the Economy and Climate, 2014. Chapter 1: Overview in Better Growth, Better Climate. Optional Readings: o Helm, Dieter, 2012. Chapter 2 (pp. 32-54) and Chapters 4-5 (pp. 75-119) in The Carbon Crunch: How We’re Getting Climate Change Wrong—and How to Fix It. New Haven: Yale University Press. o National Academy of Sciences, 2010. Chapter 3 in Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change. Washington DC: National Academies Press. www.nap.edu. o International Energy Agency, 2015. Executive Summary and Chapter 4 in Energy and Climate Change: World Energy Outlook Special Report. 7 http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2015SpecialR eportonEnergyandClimateChange.pdf o Part Five: “New Energies” (pp. 523-642) in Daniel Yergin 2011, The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World. New York: The Penguin Press. Session 6, February 16: The political economy issues, and alternative policy instruments Key questions: What are the political obstacles to deploying at scale the available technologies for reducing emissions? What are the possible policy instruments for reducing GHG emissions? What are the pros and cons of cap-and-trade systems and carbon taxes? Debate topics: (1) Are international sanctions necessary to enforce sufficiently rigorous mitigation actions? (2) Would it be better to create linked cap-and-trade systems or harmonized domestic carbon taxes? Required readings: o Nordhaus 2013, Chapter 19-22. o IPCC, 2014, selected pages (TBD) in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. o "Reflections on the Commons," Chapter 1 (only pp. 1-15) in Ostrom, Elinor, 1990. Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. o Jordan, Andrew J., et. al., 2015. “Emergence of polycentric climate governance and its future prospects,” Nature Climate Change. August 20, 1015. DOE: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2725. Optional readings: o Aldy, Joseph E., and Robert N. Stavins, 2011. “The Promise and Problems of Pricing Carbon: Theory and Experience,” Belfer Center Discussion Paper 2011-12, Harvard University November 2011. o “The Main Story” (pp. 205-222) in Hansen, James, 2009. Storms of my Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity. New York: Bloomsbury Press. o International Monetary Fund 2008. “Fiscal Instruments for Mitigation, “ Chapter 3 in The Fiscal Implications of Climate Change Policy, Fiscal Affairs Department. Washington, DC. (CC papers) www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2008/022208.pdf. 8 Session 7, February 23: History and status for the UN-led negotiations on climate change Key questions: What have been the process and the key results of the UN-led negotiations to date—the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, the Copenhagen Accord, the Durban Platform, and the Paris agreement? What are the broad assessments of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions? How have concepts of “climate justice” affected the negotiations? Debate topics: (1) Has the UNFCCC process since 1992 achieved anything significant? (2) Does “climate justice” require that high-income countries finance all mitigation and adaptation investments in low-income countries? Required readings: o United Nations 2009. Draft Decision -/CP.15, “Copenhagen Accord.” o Aldy, Joseph E., and Robert N. Stavins, 2012. “Climate Negotiations Open a Window: Key Implications of the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action,” Prepared for the Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, September 17, 2012. o UNFCCC 2015. Synthesis report of the aggregate effects of the intended national determined contributions. Conference of Parties, Twenty-first Session, Report of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Actions. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/07.pdf o [Final agreement from the COP 21 in Paris, December 2015] o Admiraal, Annemiek, et. al., 2015. Selected pages (TBD) in “Assessing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Climate Agreement—what are the projected global and national emission levels for 2025-2030?” PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. o Hayward, Tim, 2012. “Climate change and ethics,” Nature Climate Change Vol. 2, December, pp. 843-848. Published on-line 14 October 2012 DOE: 10:1038/NCLIMATE1615. Optional readings: o Ciplet, David, J. Timmons Roberts, and Mizan R. Khan, 2015. Chapter 4, “Manufacturing Consensus,” in Power in a Warming World: The New Global Politics of Climate Change and the Remaking of Environmental Inequality. Cambridge, Mass: The MIT Press. 9 o Schelling, Thomas M., 1991. “Economic Responses to Global Warming: Prospects for Cooperative Approaches,” Chapter 6 (pp. 197-221) in Dornbusch, Rudiger, and James M. Poterba, 1991. Global Warming: Economic Policy Responses. Cambridge, Mass: The MIT Press. o Chapters 21-23 (pp. 419-470) in Daniel Yergin 2011. The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World. New York: The Penguin Press. Session 8, March 1: Status of climate change policies in the US Key questions: What have been the positions of the US in the international climate negotiations? What climate change-related policies have been pursued in the US at the national and sub-national level? What are the politics of climate change policy in the US? Debate topic: Will it be politically possible to “put a price on carbon” in the US? Required readings: o US Department of State, United States Climate Action Report 2014. US National Communication to the UNFCCC. o Pooley, Eric, 2010. Selected pages from The Climate War: True Believers, Power Brokers, and the Fight to Save the Earth. New York: Hyperion. (38 pp) o Lizza, Ryan, “As the World Burns: How the Senate and the White House missed their best chance to deal with climate change,” The New Yorker October 11, 2010. (18 pp) o Lehrer, Eli, 2013. “Climate Change: It’s Time for a Conservative Alternative,” Environmental Law Reporter, September 2013. www.rstreet.org Optional readings: o Antholis, William, and Strobe Talbott, 2010. Chapters 3-5 (pp. 24-75) in Fast Forward: Ethics and Politics in the Age of Global Warming. Washington DC: Brookings Press. o Wheeler, David, 2008. “Why Warner-Lieberman Failed and How to Get America’s Working Families behind the Next Cap-and-Trade Bill,” Center for Global Development Working Paper Number 149, July 17. Session 9, March 8: Status of climate change policy in China and India Key questions: What have been the positions of China and India in the international climate negotiations? What national policies related to climate change have these countries pursued thus far? Debate topic: Are China and India promising to do enough in terms of mitigation policies? 10 Required readings: o Government of China, 2015. “Enhanced Action on Climate Change: China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC.” http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published Documents/China/1/China's INDC - on 30 June 2015.pdf o Government of India, 2015. “India’s Intended National Determined Contribution, “ Submission to the UNFCCC, http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published Documents/India/1/INDIA INDC TO UNFCCC.pdf. o Song, Ranping, et. al., 2015. “Assessing Implementation of China’s Climate Policies in the 12th 5-Year Period,” Working Paper. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. http:/www.wri.org/publications. o Mitra, Apurba, et. al., 2015. “5 Key Takeaways from India’s New Climate Plan (INDC)”, World Resources Institute. http://wri-india.org/blog/5-key-takeawaysindia’s-new-climate-plan-indc Optional readings: o Conrad, Bjorn, 2012, “China in Copenhagen: Reconciling the ‘Beijing Climate Revolution’ and the ‘Copenhagen Climate Obstinacy’”, The China Quarterly 2012 doi:10.1017/S0305741012000458 . o Schreurs, Mirana A., 2011. "Climate Change Politics in an Authoritarian State: the Ambivalent Case of China," Chapter 30 (pp. 449-463) in John S. Drysek, Richard B. Norgaard, and David Schlosbert, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Climate Change and Society. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. o Wheeler, David and Kevin Ummel, 2007. “Another Inconvenient Truth: A CarbonIntensive South Faces Environmental Disaster, No Matter What the North Does” Center for Global Development, Working Paper Number 134. Session 10, March 22: Status of climate change policies in the EU, Japan and selected other OECD countries Key questions: What have been the positions of EU, Japan and other high-income countries in the international climate negotiations? What national policies related to climate change have these countries pursued thus far? What are the underlying politics? Debate topic: Has the EU really provided strong leadership in international climate action? Required readings: o Admiraal, Annemiek, et. al., 2015. Selected pages (TBD) in “Assessing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Climate Agreement—what are the projected global and national emission levels for 2025-2030?” PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. 11 o Droge, Susanne, et. al., 2015. “The EU’s INDC and its contribution to a successful deal in Paris 2015,” Working Paper, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin. http://www.swpberlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/arbeitspapiere/Droege_et_al2015The_EU_s_INDC_and_its_contribution_to_a_successful_deal_in_Paris.pdf o Ge, Mengpin, and Taryn Fransen, 2015. “Japan Releases Underwhelming Climate Action Commitment,” World Resources Institute. http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/07/japan-releases-underwhelming-climate-actioncommitment Optional readings: o Climate Action Tracker, 2015. “G20 INDCs are In—But Large Gaps Remain”, http://climateactiontracker.org/news/237/G20-all-INDCs-in-but-large-Gapremains.html o Helm, Dieter, “EU Climate-change Policy,” Chapter 11 (pp. 222-246) in Helm, Dieter, and Cameron Hepburn, eds., 2009. The Economics and Politics of Climate Change. Oxford: Oxford University Press. o Schreurs, Miranda A., and Yves Tiberghien, "European Union Leadership in Climate Change: Mitigation through Multilevel Reinforcement," Chapter 2 (pp. 23-66) in Harrison, Kathryn, and Lisa McIntosh Sundstrom, eds., 2010. Global Commons, Domestic Decisions: The Comparative Politics of Climate Change. Cambridge, Mass: The MIT Press. o Bals, Christoph, et. al. 2013. “The End of EU Climate Leadership,” Germanwatch Briefing Paper, https://germanwatch.org/en/download/8591.pdf o Tiberghien, Yves, and Miranda A. Schreurs, "Climate Leadership, Japanese Style: Embedded Symbolism and Post-2001 Kyoto Protocol Politics," Chapter 5 (pp. 139168) in Harrison, Kathryn, and Lisa McIntosh Sundstrom, eds., 2010. Global Commons, Domestic Decisions: The Comparative Politics of Climate Change. Cambridge, Mass: The MIT Press. Session 11, March 29: Possible ways forward, and initial discussions of group research projects Required readings: o Aldy, Joseph E., and Robert N. Stavins, “Lessons for the international policy community,” Chapter 29 (pp. 899-929) in Aldy, Joseph E., and Robert N. Stavins, eds. 12 o o o 2010. Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy: Implementing Architectures for Agreement. Cambridge UK: The Cambridge University Press. “A ‘Greenprint’ for International Cooperation on Climate Change,” Chapter 1 (pp. 130) in Mattoo, Aaditya, and Arvind Subramanian, 2013. Greenprint: A New Approach to Cooperation on Climate Change. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development. Victor, David R., 2011. “A New Strategy,” Chapter 8 (pp. 214-261) in Global Warming Gridlock: Creating More Effective Strategies for Protecting the Planet. Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press. Grasso, Marco, and J. Timmons Roberts, 2013. “A Fair Compromise to Break the Climate Impasse: A Major Economics Forum Approach to Emissions Reduction Budgeting.” Policy Paper 2013-02, Global Economy and Development, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC. Ciplet, David, J. Timmons Roberts, and Mizan R. Khan, 2015. Chapter 9, “Power in a Future World,” in Power in a Warming World: The New Global Politics of Climate Change and the Remaking of Environmental Inequality. Cambridge, Mass: The MIT Press. Session 12, April 5, and Session 13, April 12: Presentations and discussions of group research projects Session 14, April 19: Wrapping up University Resources and Policies Class Policies: o Attendance is expected at every class session. A student should notify the instructor in advance if attendance is not possible on a particular date. o Blackboard will be used to post all required and optional readings (except those from the Core Readings), the mid-term exams, detailed guidelines for the paper and the team presentations, and grades. o Arrangements for late submission of the mid-term exams should be discussed with the instructor in advance. Otherwise, late submission of exams will incur a 10 point penalty. Academic Integrity: Each student is required to observe the University’s code for academic integrity as presented at http://www.gwu.edu/~ntegrity/code.html. University Support Services: Information regarding disability support services and counseling services can be found at http://gwired.gwu.edu.dss/ and http://gwired.gwu.edu/counsel/CounselingServices/AcademicSupportServices.