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Lecture 37: What Can We Do to Reduce the Magnitude of Future Climate Change? 1. Research, understand, and educate 2. Adapt 3. Mitigate Global Warning ! Adaptation • Adjustment in natural and human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. – IPCC 2001 Mitigation • An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. – IPCC 2001 UNFCCC • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change • Signed 1992, Rio Earth Summit, Brazil • Effective March 1994 Kyoto Protocol An international treaty on climate change. Made under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases, or engage in emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases The objective is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" UNFCCC-2 History: • Negotiated in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997 • Opened for signature on March 16, 1998 • Closed on March 15, 1999 • Ratified by Russia on November 18, 2004 • Came into force on February 16, 2005 • As of April 2006, 163 countries have ratified As of May 2008, 181 countries have ratified • Notable exceptions: the United States have signed but not ratified • Other countries, like India and China, ratified, not required to reduce carbon emissions under the present agreement. ARTICLE 2 OF THE U.N. FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE “The ultimate objective … is … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system … achieved within a time frame … to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner” THE KYOTO PROTOCOL (Article 3, para. 1) (For Annex B countries): “aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of (a range of) greenhouse gases (should) not exceed … assigned amounts … with a view to reducing … overall emissions of such gases by at least 5% below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008-2012” WHAT EXACTLY DOES THE KYOTO PROTOCOL MEAN? The stated target is for Annex B country emissions to be, on average, 5% below their 1990 emissions level by around 2010 In the absence of policies (i.e., under ‘Business As Usual’), Annex B emissions would increase substantially by 2010 A 5% reduction relative to 1990 represents, on average, a 16% reduction below BAU For the U.S.A., given projected economic growth, the 5% target represents an even larger reduction relative to BAU – around 30% This is part of the reason for the U.S.A.’s intransigence. It may also indicate that the Kyoto target is too much, too soon – and that the whole ‘targets and timetables’ concept is economically flawed CONCLUSIONS -- CLIMATE Humans have had a significant effect on climate, especially over the past 50 years Future changes will be much larger and more rapid than in the past: 2 to 8 times Warming in the China/Japan/Korea region will probably be slightly more rapid than global-mean warming Precipitation will probably increase by 5-15% per degree global-mean warming CONCLUSIONS -- POLICY The effects of any stabilization policy will only be realized slowly Even with strong policies, substantial future climate changes are inevitable Stabilization of CO2 concentration requires, eventually, very large reductions in emissions Such large reductions represent an enormous technological challenge for mankind DOMESTIC IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES (e.g., recently in California) • • • • • • Enhance energy efficiency and promote emissions reductions Protect and enhance C sinks Promote renewable energy and C sequestration Remove subsidies for environmentally damaging activities Tackle transport sector emissions Control methane emissions - recovery and waste management What Can We Do? A solar power satellite is among the possible alternatives to carbon dioxide-emitting fossil fuels. It could take advantage of the fact that the sun shines 24 hours a day in space. Wind turbines and solar power, which are renewable energy sources, provide less than 2 percent of the world’s electricity. This should increase! Further information IPCC websites http://www.ipcc.ch/