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Lecture 37: What Can We Do to Reduce the
Magnitude of Future Climate Change?
1. Research, understand, and educate
2. Adapt
3. Mitigate
Global Warning !
Adaptation
• Adjustment in natural and human systems in response to
actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
– IPCC 2001
Mitigation
• An anthropogenic intervention to reduce the
sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse
gases.
– IPCC 2001
UNFCCC
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
• Signed 1992, Rio Earth Summit, Brazil
• Effective March 1994
Kyoto Protocol
An international treaty on climate change.
Made under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and five other greenhouse gases, or engage in
emissions trading if they maintain or increase emissions of these gases
The objective is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at
a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system"
UNFCCC-2
History:
• Negotiated in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997
• Opened for signature on March 16, 1998
• Closed on March 15, 1999
• Ratified by Russia on November 18, 2004
• Came into force on February 16, 2005
• As of April 2006, 163 countries have ratified
As of May 2008, 181 countries have ratified
• Notable exceptions: the United States have signed but not ratified
• Other countries, like India and China, ratified, not required to reduce carbon emissions under the
present agreement.
ARTICLE 2 OF THE U.N.
FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON
CLIMATE CHANGE
“The ultimate objective … is … stabilization
of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous interference with the climate
system … achieved within a time frame … to
enable economic development to proceed in
a sustainable manner”
THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
(Article 3, para. 1)
(For Annex B countries): “aggregate
anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent
emissions of (a range of) greenhouse gases
(should) not exceed … assigned amounts …
with a view to reducing … overall emissions of
such gases by at least 5% below 1990 levels
in the commitment period 2008-2012”
WHAT EXACTLY DOES THE KYOTO
PROTOCOL MEAN?
The stated target is for Annex B country
emissions to be, on average, 5% below their
1990 emissions level by around 2010
In the absence of policies (i.e., under
‘Business As Usual’), Annex B emissions
would increase substantially by 2010
A 5% reduction relative to 1990 represents,
on average, a 16% reduction below BAU
 For the U.S.A., given projected economic
growth, the 5% target represents an even
larger reduction relative to BAU – around
30%
This is part of the reason for the U.S.A.’s
intransigence. It may also indicate that the
Kyoto target is too much, too soon – and
that the whole ‘targets and timetables’
concept is economically flawed
CONCLUSIONS -- CLIMATE
 Humans have had a significant effect
on climate, especially over the past 50
years
 Future changes will be much larger and
more rapid than in the past: 2 to 8 times
 Warming in the China/Japan/Korea
region will probably be slightly more
rapid than global-mean warming
 Precipitation will probably increase by
5-15% per degree global-mean
warming
CONCLUSIONS -- POLICY
The effects of any stabilization policy
will only be realized slowly
Even with strong policies, substantial
future climate changes are inevitable
Stabilization of CO2 concentration
requires, eventually, very large
reductions in emissions
Such large reductions represent an
enormous technological challenge
for mankind
DOMESTIC IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES
(e.g., recently in California)
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•
•
•
•
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Enhance energy efficiency and promote emissions reductions
Protect and enhance C sinks
Promote renewable energy and C sequestration
Remove subsidies for environmentally damaging activities
Tackle transport sector emissions
Control methane emissions - recovery and waste management
What Can We Do?
A solar power satellite is
among the possible
alternatives to carbon
dioxide-emitting fossil
fuels. It could take
advantage of the fact that
the sun shines 24 hours a
day in space.
Wind turbines and solar power, which are
renewable energy sources, provide less
than 2 percent of the world’s electricity.
This should increase!
Further information
IPCC websites http://www.ipcc.ch/