Download McCarl, B.A., J. Chen, and A. Thayer, "Climate change and food

Climate Change and Food Security: Threats and Adaptation
by Junyi Chen, Bruce A. McCarl and Anastasia Thayer
Draft chapter for Food Security in an Uncertain World : An International Perspective
edited by Andy Schmitz
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2013, 2014b) indicates climate
change and its drivers have increased temperatures, changed precipitation, reduced snow and ice,
raised sea levels, caused more extreme events and elevated concentrations of carbon dioxide
(CO2) among other influences. Projections are that climate change will continue even if
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are greatly reduced (IPCC, 2014c; McCarl, 2015). Risks are
not uniformly distributed and in particular poor people living in the least developed countries
appear to be likely to suffer the most (IPCC, 2014c).
Agriculture is highly vulnerable to such changes. In many regions, climate change
portends an increase in undernourishment and a weakening of food security (Butt et al., 2005;
IPCC, 2014a). Brown et al. (2015) lists food security impacting pathways including rising
temperatures, higher precipitation variability, more extreme events, and more pests and diseases.
A short run increase in extremes can destroy crops and damage local infrastructure enhancing
risks to food security (WFP, 2014). In the long run we may see reduced yields and increased
variability in places. Some regions may become unsuitable for traditional crops. Seas may
inundate producing lands and reduce local water supplies (WFP, 2014). Also, glacial and earlier
snow melt will influence the annual timing, quantity and quality of water (WFP, 2014).
Furthermore, climate change is projected to continue to threaten or exacerbate current
risks and slow down the global progress regarding to achieving food security as a result (Brown
and Funk, 2008; WFP, 2014; FAO, 2008; FAO, 2016; Brown et al., 2015).
1
This paper will provide an overview of the existing research findings on climate change
and food security linkages, covering the climate change related drivers, types of effect, and
potential adaptations finishing with a section on potential future research.
Climate Change and CO2 as Observed and Projected
Warming surface temperatures remains the most recognized impact. Global surface temperatures
have increased 1.03oC from 1880-2015 (NOAA, 2016). Looking forward, projected warming
depends on emissions which lead to several scenarios. Under the highest IPCC (2013) emissions
scenario (RCP 8.5), average global temperature is expected to increase by about 4oC by 2100.
Although the lowest IPCC scenario (RCP 2.6) only projects 1oC of warming, this scenario is not
likely as it is predicated on peak CO2 emissions occurring in the year 2020 and then declining
and becoming negative by 2100 (IPCC, 2014c). The more likely range is that by 2040, global
surface temperature will increase by about 1oC and that warming will likely exceed 1.5oC by
2100 (IPCC, 2014c). These projections suggest that increasing global temperatures will continue
and thus the risks to food security will persist at least for the next few generations.
In terms of drivers the Earth’s atmospheric CO2 content has risen by over 45% since pre
industrial times , while methane is 150% higher and nitrous oxide 20% higher (IPCC, 2014c).
Precipitation is expected to experience changes in frequency and distribution with
precipitation intensity increasing (IPCC, 2014c). However, the effects are not expected to be
uniform; as the high latitudes and Equatorial Pacific are expected to experience an increase but
subtropical dry regions are expected to experience decreases (IPCC, 2014c). In addition,
individual precipitation events are expected to become more intense and periods of droughts are
expected to become more frequent and severe (IPCC, 2014c; Brown et al., 2015). Furthermore,
2
the IPCC projects that many areas will experience lower soil moisture and river flows (IPCC,
2014c).
Climate change is also expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme
weather events (IPCC, 2014c). Some such impacts are already being observed including more
frequent hot days and less cold ones, more frequent droughts, more wet periods, and increased
rainfall intensity (IPCC, 2014c; NOAA, 2016). The IPCC projects that the area at risk for
monsoons will increase with increased precipitation and a longer season (IPCC, 2014c).
While warming land temperatures dominate discussions on climate change, the oceans
are absorbing most of the heat (IPCC, 2014c). Specifically, from 1971-2010 the oceans absorbed
90% of the energy where the atmosphere only absorbed 10% (IPCC, 2014c). This led to
increases in ocean surface temperatures of 0.11oC per decade since 1971 (IPCC, 2014c). Also,
the ocean has absorbed about 30% of the CO2 emissions which has changed ocean pH (IPCC,
2014c) and impact the ecosystems of fish, shellfish and other marine species which provide food
and income for many coastal communities.
Warming surface temperatures are causing melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets plus glaciers worldwide, along with decreasing snow cover (IPCC, 2014c). This alters
hydrologic cycles and, along with thermal expansion, causes sea level rise. Global sea level rise
amounted to 0.19m since 1901-2010 with an accelerating rate in the last 30 years (IPCC, 2014c).
Sea level rise is expected to continue. The IPCC estimates that it will impact conditions on 70%
of all coastlines.
In addition, there are indirect drivers including: pest incidence, soil fertility, plant water
needs, irrigation water supplies, population and growth, and markets (Porter et al., 2014). It is the
intersection of the direct and indirect climate drivers which pose a threat to food security.
3
Modeling and identifying the how these factors will change under different climate scenarios is
critical in determining how production and other risks to food security.
Food Security Implications and Findings
The statements above show food security is likely to be affected. Here we review
findings from studies regarding food production and access.
Food production
Many studies have addressed potential or observed climate change impacts on crop,
livestock, fishery production, and production costs.
Cropping
Cropping systems are likely to be impacted from changes in: temperature and
precipitation, frequency of extreme events, pest incidence, soil fertility, irrigation water supplies
and soil moisture plus CO2 and ozone (IPCC, 2014c). The magnitude and severity of these
effects varies based on local conditions.
Today, crop estimates suggest (with medium confidence) that global wheat and maize
yields have decreased in many places as a result of global warming (Porter et al., 2014) although
there have also been yield increases in regions where previously production was limited by cold
(Attavanich et al., 2013). For other crops such as rice and soybeans, impacts on yield have been
found to be small (medium confidence) (IPCC, 2014c). Yield changes are highly regional with
some research showing that from 1980-2008 in China, increases in air temperature slowed
growth rates by 1.5% for wheat and corn but had no observed effect for rice or soybeans (Brown
et al., 2015). Research in India from 1960-2002, shows increasing air temperatures were
4
associated with a 5% or more reduction in rice yield-growth rates (Brown et al., 2015)
highlighting the regionally varying effects.
The literature is beginning to detect trends across multiple study areas such as the finding
that increases in the number of hot nights has led to increased rice yields but decreases in quality
(Porter et al., 2014). Additionally, climate change also has been found to influence technological
progress and have heterogeneous impacts across regions (Villavicencio et al., 2013).
To add another layer of complexity, while researchers agree that frequency of extreme
events is expected to increase, which puts agricultural production at risk, only limited research
has quantified the impacts of extreme weather impacts on crop production with effects found
from such items as hot days (Schlenker and Roberts, 2006) hurricanes (Chen and McCarl, 2009),
ENSO phases (Chen et al., 2001), drought measures and rainfall intensity (Attavanich and
McCarl, 2014).
Finally, in terms of productivity, not only are yields influenced but there are incidences of
climate induced losses in land area. This arises from three principal sources. First, climate
change induces sea level rise which can threaten low lying land areas which currently supports
rice production as examined by Chen et al. (2012). Sea level rise puts other crops at risk
including fruits and vegetables (see Chang et al., 2012 who examine this in Taiwan). Second,
climate change enhanced extreme events in the form of flooding can severely erode lands
degrading crop producing lands (Blaikie and Brookfield, 1987; WMO, 2005). Third, climate
change can stimulate the spread of invasive species which can in turn cause land degradation
(Flanagan et al., 2015). Fourth, increased temperatures and changes to historical precipitation
patterns can alter climate conditions and soil moisture which can lead to increased desertification
(Reed and Stringer, 2015).
5
Yields are also sensitive to other climate change related factors. In particular, increases in
CO2 concentrations can also increase yields for some crops. C3 crops such as wheat, rice, cotton,
soybeans, potatoes, and sugar beets respond positively to increased CO2 levels while yields of C4
crops such as corn, sorghum, and sugarcane do not--although C4 crops exhibit yield increases
under moisture stress conditions (Porter et al., 2014, Attavanich et al., 2014). Additionally,
climate change has been argued to induce ozone increases which in turn have been found to
depress yield levels of wheat, soybeans, maize and rice (Porter et al., 2014). In the end, whether
yields increase or decrease due to changes in atmospheric composition of these gases will depend
on the relative concentrations and interplay with other climate drivers.
Climate change not only affects production but also alters production costs. In particular,
Koleva at al. (2010) show that climate change alters pesticide usage and can increase costs. If
pest incidence increases, this may decrease yields and enhance storage losses. Furthermore,
researchers suggest that climate change mitigation efforts could increase energy and fertilizer
costs and cause land to be diverted from agriculture to trees or bioenergy feedstocks (McCarl and
Schneider, 2001). These changes could make agricultural production more costly for farmers and
increase crop prices for consumers.
While much of this research has focused on changes to averages, another aspect of food
security is the variability of production. Studies have shown that climate change factors increase
the variability of crop yields (Attavanich and McCarl, 2014) and of production costs (Chen and
McCarl, 2001). Climate change can also damage roads through extreme events and possible
market access during critical periods. It should be noted that accounting for changes in the
distributions and variability of these events is difficult when modeling climate change impacts.
Livestock
6
Most climate change effects on livestock production are a result of increased stress from
increases in temperatures and changes to feed availability. Many studies have shown that
temperature increases have a negative impact on livestock production including (1) alterations in
feed-grain availability and price as follows from the crop productivity arguments above; (2)
changes in pasture and forage crop production and quality (Polley et al., 2013); (3) altered
animal health, growth, milk production and reproduction (Gaughan et al., 2009) and (4) shifts in
disease and pest distributions (Perry et al., 2013). In fact, Voh et al. (2004) find that a lack of
thermally-tolerant breeds of cattle is already a major constraint on production in Africa. These
studies show that livestock will likely experience decreased productivity, increased mortality,
and increased costs for production which will impact food availability through changes in
quantity available and price.
On the other hand, findings of a positive impact on livestock production in cold limited
areas nearer the poles have arisen.
Fisheries
Food security may also be affected through changes to fisheries due to altered ocean
temperatures, acidification, salinity, sea level, and extreme events (Porter et al., 2014). Research
has found that in the last 25 years ocean fish have moved their distribution poleward or to deeper
and cooler waters (Brown et al., 2015). Shifting fish locations means that people have to travel
further to find the same species and may decrease fishing effort perhaps completely. Also, higher
ocean salinity and acidification disrupts calcification for reefs, mollusks and other shelled
creatures which will impact availability for human consumption and food sources across the
ecological chain (Brown et al., 2015).
7
Along with impacts to the fish and aquaculture, fishing communities are likely to be
impacted by extreme weather events and rising sea level. Additionally, changes in freshwater
water resources due to alterations in precipitation patterns and ice and snow coverage impose
risks to inland fishery production and aquaculture plus diminished freshwater inflows to bays
and estuaries that may impact fishery reproduction and abundance (Porter et al., 2014). As with
changes to crop and livestock production, climate change will likely limit available feed
resources, increase cost of production, and thus, increase prices.
Food Access
Food access captures an individual’s ability to gain access to food and along with the
factors listed above, includes: availability of farmable land, stores and other market locations,
pricing structures, and adequate income or other sources to purchase and acquire food. Most of
the literature on climate change impacts to food access focuses on expected changes to prices.
Urban consumers, rural non-farming consumers, and food producers who are net buyers, are all
expected to be negatively impacted by increasing food prices as food may no longer be
affordable (Porter et al., 2014). It is unclear what the welfare impacts to food producers are as
they also gain income from the higher prices (Hertel, 2016). In particular in many areas where
feed security is an issue, many of the food consumers are also subsistence farmers – food
producers. Findings consistently across climate change studies show that in cases where climate
change is yield reducing, food prices increase and in turn so does farmer incomes (Butt et al.,
2006). This creates a contradictory setting where yield and production is down but income
increases which suggests that the negative impacts of climate change might less harmful than
predicted when just considering changes to yields (Hertel, 2016).
8
In addition to direct production impacts, alterations of the current system are expected to
impact other aspects of food availability including but not limited to: processing, storage,
transportation, and trading. Climate change will directly influence these systems most noticeably
through disrupting historical temperature and precipitation patterns, frequency of extreme events,
and adding vulnerability or uncertainty into historical systems. Increased temperatures will
necessitate more refrigeration and cooling of products from the time of production to
consumption (Brown et al., 2015). Increased temperature and changes to air moisture
concentrations could lead to spoilage or more costly storage and transportation (Brown et al.,
2015). Shifts to the locations of packaging and processing facilities might occur as climate
change shifts production locations (Brown et al., 2015). Finally, transportation and food supply
lines can be impacted by extreme weather events or shifting temperature and precipitation
patterns. Other impacts are secondary such as increasing pests and other diseases rendering food
inedible or lost (Brown et al., 2015). Additionally changes to nutritional content have been
observed under increased temperature and CO2 (Brown et al., 2015). Thus the nutrition aspect of
food security might be put at risk.
Overall
The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) estimates that over 70% of
the poor live in the rural regions, a majority of which rely on agriculture for their subsistence
(Brown et al., 2015). Thus, when climate change affects their food production, this has a direct
consequence. Schmidhuber and Tubiello (2007) estimate due to climate change, an additional 5170 million people will be at risk for hunger in 2080.
Adaptation
9
These threats to food security may be addressed through adaptations that reduce the
magnitude of the issue or mitigation efforts that reduce the future extent of climate change. Here
we will discuss mainly adaptation. Furthermore, there is an inevitability of a substantial extent of
climate change regardless of mitigation effort – the IPCC (2014a) era of committed climate
change (about 1 °C in next 25 years) and thus there is an inevitable need for adaptation (IPCC
2014a; McCarl, 2015).
Adaptation strategies can be classified into natural, autonomous and planned actions
(IPCC, 2007, 2014a). Natural adaptation involves adjustments within ecosystems. Autonomous
adaptation refers to private actions by individuals in response to climate change that better their
production outcomes (IPCC, 2007, 2014a). Such adaptations usually occur without the
engagement of government (Antle, 2009) and involve private goods. Autonomous and private
adaptations have incorporated changing crop mixes, crop timing, livestock breeds, livestock
mixes, and irrigation. Conversely, what has been called planned adaptations are public actions in
the form of policy, investments, information provision or other dimensions resolving places
where private action is insufficient addressing public good type issues (IPCC, 2014a). Public and
planned actions include developing infrastructure, policies, and institutions, releasing
information, research into adapted varieties, extension, lending programs, establishment of
insurance schemes, aiming at improving adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007, 2014a).
In what follows, we will discuss adaptations across various sectors.
Cropping
The observed and projected changes in crop productivity and variability has stimulated
private actions, with adjustments in planting and sowing dates, changes in cultivation, and
10
switches in species of crops observed among other adaptations (IPCC, 2014a). Such adaptations
play a vital role in reducing potential risks posed by climate change like domestic production
volatility. Butt et al. (2005, 2006) show in a Mali study that such options can reduce the the risk
of hunger substantially.
There also exist other viable adaptation options, which could curtail adverse impacts and
amplify the positive effects of climate change in the context of food security (IPCC, 2014a).

Optimizing the crop species or their combination. Individuals could switch to alternative
species such as crops with more heat or drought tolerant properties. From a broad
perspective, one can replace vulnerable crops with ones more suitable under the changed
climate (e.g., those with higher water usage efficiency) (McCarl, 2007; IPCC, 2014a;
FAO, 2016).

Expanding the range of cropping activities in certain regions. Since higher temperature
may cause the agro-climatic zones to move poleward, some places such as Canada may
become suitable places for growing. Such cropping expansions can offset losses in lower
latitude areas (FAO, 2016).

Improving water management in response to potentially scarce water resources caused by
altering variability of precipitation. Potential adaptation strategies encompass greater use
of irrigation, improved water storage, enhanced irrigation technologies and altered
agronomic practices that increase soil water retention (e.g., less intensive tillage
practices) (FAO, 2016; HLPE, 2015).

Utilizing climate forecasts. In principle, such forecasts offer farmers opportunities to
make decisions such as altering crop mix, introducing new technology and adjusting
livestock populations. In certain cases, exploiting climate forecasts can reduce cropping
11
risk, notwithstanding some contrary examples in which forecasts are not of use
(Vermeulen et al., 2012; IPCC, 2014a).

Designing national or sub-national level policies to promote adaptation, such as subsidies
for crop replacement or costly inputs in farming (national level), increasing food storage
facilities (sub-national level) or distributing information on adaptation crops/practices.
Nonetheless, due to uncertainty and dynamics of food systems, some policies and
investments may also lead to maladaptation (Vermeulen et al., 2012; IPCC, 2014a).

Research and development (R&D) can be increased to better adapt existing systems and
overcome climate effects (Villavicencio et al., 2013; FAO, 2016).

Public actions involving actions such as investing in facilities (dams, roads, canals, etc.),
providing adaptation information through extension, enhancing risk management
mechanisms (insurance, storage etc.), and developing improved practices.
The potential adaptations listed above can be undertaken individually or jointly and their
usefulness varies depending on location, climate conditions, resource endowments,
environmental factors, and other local factors.
Livestock
In general, regions that are the most vulnerable to climate change also rely heavily on
livestock for their livelihoods (FAO, 2016). Consequently ensuring that livestock production
remains viable is an important component of food security for these regions (FAO, 2016). Under
certain circumstances (e.g., in pastoral communities), diversifying livestock and crop farming is
in itself an adaptation since it reduces risk (IUCN, 2010; FAO, 2016). Livestock systems may
adopt a wide array of adaptation strategies, which can be divided into three categories: animal
12
herd characteristics, feeding systems employed (forage and feeding of crops), management
system and institutions (labor force and capital) (FAO, 2016).
Many researchers (Howden et al., 2007; Ghahramani and Moore, 2013; IPCC, 2014a)
have identified adaptations that are occurring for livestock systems, such as adjusting grazing
rotations, timing of breeding, matching pasture production with stocking rates on a continuous
basis, integrating livestock and crop systems, switching to animal species which are more
suitable to the altered climate, etc. People may have to face a trade-off when employing these
adaptation strategies. For instance, heat stress serves as a primary driver of production loss in
some livestock (Nardone et al., 2010). Therefore, the use of more heat-tolerant livestock might
be one natural way to cope with the challenge (Nardone et al., 2010). Nevertheless, keeping such
breeds are usually less productive (Howden et al., 2007).
Livestock systems might also employ some other strategies such as:

Diversifying production systems and livelihoods (Howden et al., 2007).

Long-term restoration of grassland and development of agroforestry to offer shade and
alternative food resources (FAO, 2016).

Transforming to alternative species or enterprises, adopting advanced technologies, using
improved information, etc. (Ghahramani and Moore, 2013; IPCC, 2014a; FAO, 2016).
Fisheries and Aquaculture Systems
Climate change acts as a risk multiplier that may exacerbate existing problems from
overfishing and ocean based human activities such as coastal and offshore mining, and oil and
gas extraction (IPCC, 2014a). Again there exist numerous adaptation options, involving policy
and governance, technical support, and capacity building among many others (FAO, 2014). At
13
the same time, in contrast to crop and livestock systems, the exploitation of fish often involves
common property populations and thus excludes some previously proposed adaptation options
related to management (Howden et al., 2007).
Fisheries adaptations mainly focus on adjusting catch effort and size plus bettering the
environment where breeding happens (Howden et al., 2007). For example, many areas may
impose constraints on the level of fishing to maintain yields of fish stocks, raising the resilience
of fish stocks to climate change as well (Howden et al., 2007). Furthermore, producers may
replace target species with alternative ones that are better adjusted to the altered climatic
conditions (McCarl et al., 2011). Plus, they can alter the way in which fish are managed by
modifying aquaculture facilities, changing stocking rates, etc. (McCarl et al., 2011).
In addition to the adaptations mentioned above, other measures for reducing vulnerability
throughout the production chain are summarized by FAO (2016). For example, in the face of
water stress and droughts, people can enhance water usage efficiency, switch to coastal
aquaculture and culture-based fisheries, or choose short-cycle production, etc. (FAO, 2016).
International Trade
International trade serves a critical part role in adapting global food security to a
changing climate, since it can prompt economic growth thereby increasing income levels and
improving food security (Baldos and Hertel, 2015; WTO, 2005). Specifically, trade allows for an
efficient transfer from regions with food surpluses to regions with food deficits and enables
countries to be self-reliant instead of self-sufficient (WTO, 2005).
Climate change might increase short-term risk through increasing the frequency of
extreme events, which may induce higher food supply volatility (Baldos and Hertel, 2015).
14
Correspondingly, long-term risks such as secular variation in average precipitation and
temperature will probably alter comparative advantage of food production (Baldos and Hertel,
2015). Therefore, trade has provided an important channel to handle these two kinds of risks
(Baldos and Hertel, 2015). For instance, governments may tailor trade-related policies for
adapting to changing the environmental circumstance (McCarl et al., 2011). These could be
removing the existing trade distortions, offering free access to international markets, and
balancing production loss and surplus (McCarl et al., 2011). Admittedly, there are tremendous
political challenges in reaching international trade agreements such as curtailing the trade
barriers to facilitate global trade (Baldos and Hertel, 2015). Nevertheless, considerable
achievements in mitigating the malnutrition situations are evident when we improve integration
across different markets (Baldos and Hertel, 2015).
Research and Development
R&D have already been identified to be favorable for coping with climate change and
safeguarding food security (Burke and Lobell, 2010). Countries that have invested more in R&D
tend to have achieved higher productivity growth (OECD, 2013) and additional investment may
be required to offset the negative effects of climate change particularly in warmer, more
vulnerable regions (Villavicencio et al., 2013; Chen et al., 2012). Nevertheless, in recent
decades, donor partners and governments in low-income nations have invested less, which has
inhibited the progress in food security and poverty reduction (Beddington et al., 2012). Climate
change provides additional demands for R&D among other things increasing the R&D needs to
maintain production in the face of the changed climate. Considering the lags between R&D
15
investment and productivity, the investments in the next 20 years is highly likely to play a
considerable role in determining food insecurity under climate change (Baldos et al., 2015).
Infrastructure
Climate change adaptation has been observed to and will in the future increasingly shift
the location of production and the crop/livestock/fish product mix at any one point. This has
influences for the needed matching marketing, storage and transport system that converts and
conveys those commodities to consumers in different forms, places, and/or times. For example,
in the US, Attavanich et al. (2013) find significant implications for transportation facilities.
Discussion and further research
There is increasing agreement that climate change will have widespread and far-reaching
effects on food security, especially for those most vulnerable people (WFP, 2014). Arguably, the
effects are already being realized. Nonetheless, the accumulated impacts have not been
sufficiently investigated (WFP, 2014). Hertel (2016) attributes the actual challenge in evaluating
the food security impacts of climate change to the uncertainty in both biophysical influence and
the allocation of the food-insecure people in the future. When confronted with the uncertainty,
people in different sectors may take actions at various levels and usually with disparate interests
(Vervoort et al., 2014). Furthermore, the challenges associated with guaranteeing food security
are systemic. Decision and policy makers thereby need system-wide operations (Vervoort et al.,
2014; Vermeulen et al., 2013). Three challenges are emphasized by Vervoort et al. (2014).

Determining the appropriate scope for collaborative actions for actors with various
experience, interests, and perspectives.
16

Transforming from single intervention or adaptation to co-manage change continuously
in a demand-driven style.

Developing long-run capacity for strategic cooperative making.
Based on the existing related studies, a number of directions for future research emerge:

Additional work is needed on links to processing, storage loss, transport, access,
utilization, etc. (IPCC, 2014a).

More advanced modeling and more extensive analytical methods are required to unravel
the indirect effects on food security imposed by climate change (Vermeulen et al., 2012).

Downscaled studies of climate change effects are needed to inform local decision or
policy makers to design more efficient and effective coping strategies (IPCC, 2014a).

Issues involving variability of yield, environmental thresholds, and tipping points deserve
further exploration (IPCC, 2014a).

A wider variety of adaptation options and their costs need to be incorporated into the
assessments of climate change impacts on food security (IPCC, 2014a).

Appropriate adaptation actions across different geographical locations need to be
identified, as well as the benefits and costs of their implementation (Antle, 2009).

Work is needed on the benefits and costs to public actions in facilitating private
adaptation plus influencing natural adaptation.

Analysis is needed on how private adaptation shifts the locus of food production and how
processing, transport and other infrastructure may need to be modified.
References
17
Antle, J. M. (2009). Agriculture and the Food System. Adaptation to Climate Change.
Adaptation. An Initiative of the Climate Policy Program at Resource for the Future
Report. 25.
Attavanich, W., McCarl, B. A., Ahmedov, Z., Fuller, S. W., & Vedenov, D. V. (2013). Effects of
climate change on US grain transport. Nature Climate Change, 3(7), 638-643.
Attavanich, W., & McCarl, B.A.. (2014). How is CO2 Affecting Yields and Technological
Progress? A Statistical Analysis. Climatic Change, 124(4), 747-762.
Baldos, U. L. C., & Hertel, T. W. (2015). The role of international trade in managing food
security risks from climate change. Food Security, 7(2), 275-290.
Baldos, U. L. C., Hertel, T. W., & Fuglie, K. O. (2015). Climate change adaptation through
agricultural R&D investments: Implications for food security and the environment.
In 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco,
California (No. 205747). Agricultural and Applied Economics Association & Western
Agricultural Economics Association.
Beddington, J., Asaduzzaman, M., & Clark, M. (2012). Achieving food security in the face of
climate change: Final report from the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and
Climate Change.
Blaikie, P.M. and H.C. Brookfield (1987), Land Degradation and Society, Methuen, London.
Brown, M.E., J.M. Antle, P. Backlund, E.R. Carr, W.E. Easterling, M.K. Walsh, C. Ammann,
W. Attavanich, C.B. Barrett, M.F. Bellemare, V. Dancheck, C. Funk, K. Grace, J.S.I.
Ingram, H. Jiang, H. Maletta, T. Mata, A. Murray, M. Ngugi, D. Ojima, B. O’Neill, and
C. Tebaldi. (2015). Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System.
146 pages. Available at:
18
http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/FoodSecurity2015Assessment/FullAssessment.
pdf.
Brown, M. E., & Funk, C. C. (2008). Brown, M.E., Funk, C.C., 2008. Food security under
climate change. Science, 319(5863), 580–581.
Burke, M., & Lobell, D. (2010). Food security and adaptation to climate change: What do we
know?. In Climate Change and Food Security (pp. 133-153). Springer Netherlands.
Butt, T. A., McCarl, B. A., & Kergna, A. O. (2006). Policies for reducing agricultural sector
vulnerability to climate change in Mali. Climate Policy, 5(6), 583-598.
Butt, T. A., McCarl, B. A., Angerer, J., Dyke, P. T., & Stuth, J. W. (2005). The economic and
food security implications of climate change in Mali. Climatic change, 68(3), 355-378.
Chang, C.C., Chen, C.C., and McCarl, B.A. (2012). Evaluating the Economic Impacts of Climate
Change Induced Sea Level Rise with Possible Adaptation Strategies on Taiwan
Agricultural Sector. Agricultural Economics, 43(2), 205-214.
Chen, C.C., McCarl, B.A. & Adams, R.M. (2001). Economic Implications of Potential Climate
Change Induced ENSO Frequency and Strength Shifts, Climatic Change, 49, 147-159.
Chen, C.C., & McCarl, B.A. (2001). Pesticide Usage as Influenced by Climate: A Statistical
Investigation. Climatic Change, 50(1-2), 475-487.
Chen, C.C., & McCarl, B.A. (2009). Hurricanes and possible intensity increases: Effects on and
reactions from US Agriculture, Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 41(1),
125-144.
Chen, C. C., McCarl, B., & Chang, C. C. (2012). Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global
market implications. Climatic change, 110(3-4), 543-560.
19
FAO. (2008). Climate change and food security: a framework document. Available at:
http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf
FAO. (2014). Climate Change Adaptation in Fisheries and Aquaculture. Compilation of initial
examples. Available at: http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3569e.pdf
FAO. (2016). Climate Change and Food Security: Risk and Responses. Available at:
http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5188e.pdf
Flanagan, N. E., Richardson, C. J., & Ho, M. (2015). Connecting differential responses of native
and invasive riparian plants to climate change and environmental alteration. Ecological
Applications, 25(3), 753-767.
Gaughan, J., Lacetera, N., Valtorta, S. E., Khalifa, H. H., Hahn, L., & Mader, T. (2009).
Response of domestic animals to climate challenges. In Biometeorology for adaptation to
climate variability and change (pp. 131-170). Springer Netherlands.
Ghahramani, A., & Moore, A. D. (2013). Climate change and broadacre livestock production
across southern Australia. 2. Adaptation options via grassland management. Crop and
Pasture Science, 64(6), 615-630.
Hertel, T. W. (2016). Food security under climate change. Nature Climate Change, 6(1), 10-13.
HLPE. (2015). Water for food security and nutrition. A report by the High Level Panel of
Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security,
Rome.
Howden, S. M., Soussana, J. F., Tubiello, F. N., Chhetri, N., Dunlop, M., & Meinke, H. (2007).
Adapting agriculture to climate change. Proceedings of the national academy of
sciences, 104(50), 19691-19696.
20
IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E.
Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976pp.
IPCC. (2013). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M.
Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
IPCC. (2014a). Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Summaries,
Frequently Asked Questions, and Cross-Chapter Boxes. A Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir,
M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy,
S. MacCracken,P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. World Meteorological
Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 190 pp.
IPCC. (2014b). Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts,Adaptation, and
Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to
the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field,
C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee,
K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken,
P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-32.
21
IPCC. (2014c). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II
and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland,
151 pp.
IUCN. (2010). Building climate change resilience for African livestock in sub-Saharan Africa.
World Initiative for Sustainable Pastoralism (WISP): a program of IUCN Eastern and
Southern Africa Regional Office, Nairobi, March 2010.
Koleva, N.G., Schneider, U.A., Tol, R.S.J., (2010). The impact of weather variability and climate
change on pesticide applications in the US - An empirical investigation. International
Journal of Ecological Economics & Statistics 18, 64-81.
McCarl, B. (2007). Adaptation options for agriculture, forestry and fisheries. The UNFCCC
Financial and Technical Support Division. Available at:
http://unfccc.int/cooperation_and_support/financial_mechanism/financial_mechanism_ge
f/items/4054.php
McCarl, B. A. (2015). Elaborations on Climate Adaptation in US Agriculture. Choices, 30(2).
McCarl, B. A., Hurd, B. H., Feng, S. J., Hagerman, A. D., Mu, J. H., & Wang, W. W. (2011)
Climate Change And Its Impact On Agriculture: Challenges For The 21st Century.
McCarl, B. A., & Schneider, U. A. (2001). The cost of greenhouse gas mitigation in US
agriculture and forestry. Science, 294(21), 2481-82.
Nardone, A., Ronchi, B., Lacetera, N., Ranieri, M. S., & Bernabucci, U. (2010). Effects of
climate changes on animal production and sustainability of livestock systems. Livestock
Science, 130(1), 57-69.
22
NOAA. (2016). National Centers for Environmental Information. State of the Climate: State of
the Climate: Global Analysis for Annual 2015. Available from:
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201513
OECD. (2013). Global Food Security: Challenges for the Food and Agricultural System, OECD
Publishing, Paris. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264195363-en
Perry, B. D., Grace, D., & Sones, K. (2013). Current drivers and future directions of global
livestock disease dynamics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(52),
20871-20877.
Polley, H. W., Briske, D. D., Morgan, J. A., Wolter, K., Bailey, D. W., & Brown, J. R. (2013).
Climate change and North American rangelands: trends, projections, and
implications. Rangeland Ecology & Management, 66(5), 493-511.
Porter, J.R., L. Xie, A.J. Challinor, K. Cochrane, S.M. Howden, M.M. Iqbal, D.B. Lobell, and
M.I. Travasso, 2014: Food security and food production systems. In: Climate Change
2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J.
Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C.
Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and
L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA, pp. 485-533.
Reed, M. S., & Stringer, L. C. (2015). Climate change and desertification: Anticipating,
assessing & adapting to future change in drylands. Impulse report for the 3rd UNCCD
Scientific Conference on Combating desertification/land degradation and drought for
23
poverty reduction and sustainable development, Cancún, March 2015
http://www.unccd.int/en/programmes/Science/Conferences/Documents/3sc_unccd_impul
se-report.pdf
Schlenker, W., & Roberts, M. J. (2006). Nonlinear effects of weather on corn yields. Applied
Economic Perspectives and Policy, 28(3), 391-398.
Schmidhuber, J., & Tubiello, F. N. (2007). Global food security under climate
change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(50), 19703-19708.
Vermeulen, S. J., Aggarwal, P. K., Ainslie, A., Angelone, C., Campbell, B. M., Challinor, A. J.,
& Lau, C. (2012). Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate
change. Environmental Science & Policy, 15(1), 136-144.
Vermeulen, S. J., Challinor, A. J., Thornton, P. K., Campbell, B. M., Eriyagama, N., Vervoort, J.
M., ... & Nicklin, K. J. (2013). Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for
agriculture. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110(21), 8357-8362.
Vervoort, J. M., Thornton, P. K., Kristjanson, P., Förch, W., Ericksen, P. J., Kok, K &
Wilkinson, A. (2014). Challenges to scenario-guided adaptive action on food security
under climate change. Global Environmental Change, 28, 383-394.
Villavicencio, X., McCarl, B. A., Wu, X., & Huffman, W. E. (2013). Climate change influences
on agricultural research productivity. Climatic change, 119(3-4), 815-824.
Voh Jr, A. A., Ogwu, D., & Oyedipe, E. O. (2004). Fertility of Bunaji (zebu) cows after
treatment with PRID with or without PGF2α. Tropical animal health and
production, 36(5), 483-497.
WFP. (2014). Climate impacts on food security and nutrition: a review of existing knowledge.
Available at: http://www.wfp.org/climate-change/climate-impacts
24
World Meteorological Organization -WMO, Climate and Land Degradation, No. 989 © 2005,
ISBN 92-63-10989-3
WTO. (2005). Why trade matters for improving food security. DG Speeches High-Level Round
Table on Agricultural Trade Reform and Food Security. Available at:
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/spsp_e/spsp37_e.htm
25