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Transcript
Prospects for
Food & Water Availability and Quality
A view based on Climate Change
Bruce A. McCarl
Distinguished Professor of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University
[email protected], http//ageco.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl
Let's Avoid
Climate Change
Mitigation
Climate Change
is Happening
Effects/Adaptation
Presented at a meeting on
Megaregions + MetroProsperity: Sustainable Economics for the Texas Triangle
During panel on Food & water: Are we secure?
Houston, September 24, 2009
Coverage
Do we have a food issue now?
What will climate change do to food?
What will climate change due to water?
Fresh
Sea level
What are challenges of climate change
mitigation and adaptation
Do we have a food issue now?
The Texas Megaregion is Food
Deficit and has no prospects of
being any other way. We import.
As a state we are food surplus likely
only in cotton ( 30%)
beef (16%)
wheat (5-7%)
Broilers (6%)
None of these are big enough in
triangle area
Some say recent data shows this is over
0.7
0.8
NCDC Global Land+Ocean
Temperature Anomaly Relative to 20th Century Avg
0.6
0.6
Temperature Anomaly (°C)
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
1996
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Date
Easterling, D. R., and M. F.
Wehner (2009),Is the climate
warming or cooling?,
Geophys. Res. Lett., in press.
(accepted 30 March 2009)
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
-0.4
1997-2008
1998
Glob al Mea
n Te mpere
rature
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0.7
Global Average Climate Change
0.8
0.6
NCDC Global Land+Ocean
Temperature Anomaly Relative to 20th Century Avg
0.5
0.6
Temperature Anomaly (°C)
0.4
1997-2008
0.4
0.3
1996
1998
0.2
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Glob al Mea n Te mpere rature
0.4
0.0
0.3
-0.2
0.2
Date
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
0.3
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
-0.4
1987-1996
0.1
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
0.2
Easterling, D. R., and M. F.
Wehner (2009),Is the climate
warming or cooling?, Geophys.
Res. Lett., in press. (accepted 30
March 2009)
0.1
1977-1989
0.0
1975
1980
1985
1990
Ups and downs in global
atmospheric temperatures over a
decade are not easy to interpret
Degree of climate change
Precipitation
Precipitation is increasing
but not here
Amount from wet days is
increasing
Subtropics forecast to be drier
Degree of climate change - What is projected
• Less water
Texas in relatively severely affected area
Live with it - Agriculture
Nationally more crops – Texas 25% less acres
Cold limited acres
CO2 effect
Source McCarl work for US National Assessment
Table 2 National crop sensitivity over all crops giving average yield change in percent to 2030
-- GCM behind Climate Scenario -Hadley
Canadian
CSIRO REGCM
Corn Belt
24.02
18.23
6.05
6.58
Great Plains
25.29
17.28
3.67
4.82
Lake States
43.75
53.03
9.34
11.84
Northeast
9.48
-2.07
2.13
4.45
Rocky Mountains
27.74
19.37
18.27
15.04
Pacific Southwest
17.76
21.44
15.58
15.05
Pacific Northwest
65.42
17.01
17.22
18.30
South Central
13.25
-6.06
-0.71
-0.79
Southeast
10.00
-3.16
3.84
2.40
South West
21.66
14.69
3.38
2.60
National
25.14
16.51
6.02
6.46
Red signifies results below mean
http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/papers/778.pdf
Sea Level – Coastal
IPCC 0.18-0.6 meters (no ice melt)
Greenland 7 meters
Antarctica 55 meters
Scenarios 1-5 meters
Houston 13 meters
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/ResourceCenterPublicationsSLRMapsIndex.html
http://www.glo.state.tx.us/coastal/erosion/reimbursement/pdf/Surfside_Beach_historic_shorelines.pdf
Mitigation of climate change
Why is this happening
Pre industrial
1985
2007
- 275 Counting Non CO2
- 345 this is increase almost doubles
- 380+
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html
Climate change mitigation – Texas and GHGs
800.0
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
A
L
A
R
A
Z
C
A
C
O
C
T
D
C
D
E
F
L
G
A
H
I
I
A
I
D
I
L
I
N
K
S
K
Y
L
A
M
A
M
D
M
E
M
I
M
N
M
O
M
S
M
T
N
C
N
D
N
E
N
H
N
J
N
M
N
V
N
Y
O
H
O
K
O
R
P
A
R
I
S
C
S
D
T
N
T
X
U
T
V
A
V
T
W
A
W
I
W
V
W
Y
2003 State by State Energy related CO2 emissions -- Texas wins
Most emissions from energy
US EIA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html
Emissions growing
US EPA, http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html
Why Adapt - Inevitability
Stabilization
level
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global mean temp.
increase
at equilibrium (ºC)
Year CO2 needs to
peak
Year CO2
emissions back at
2000 level
Reduction in 2050 CO2
emissions compared to
2000
445 – 490
2.0 – 2.4
2000 - 2015
2000- 2030
-85 to -50
490 – 535
2.4 – 2.8
2000 - 2020
2000- 2040
-60 to -30
535 – 590
2.8 – 3.2
2010 - 2030
2020- 2060
-30 to +5
590 – 710
3.2 – 4.0
2020 - 2060
2050- 2100
+10 to +60
800
700
710 – 855
4.0 – 4.9
2050 - 2080
+25 to +85
855 – 1130
4.9 – 6.1
2060 - 2090
+90 to +140
600
500
Basic Resources
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, http://www.ipcc.ch/.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Climate Change 2007:
Mitigation , http://www.ipcc.ch/.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - The Scientific Basis,
http://www.ipcc.ch/.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Synthesis Report,
http://www.ipcc.ch/.
National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change
Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Overview:
2000 http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/overview.htm
National Assessment Synthesis Team, US Global Change Research Program , Climate Change
Impacts on the United States:The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change Foundation:
2000 http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/foundation.htm
http://agecon.tamu.edu/faculty/mccarl/papers.htm