Download Co-benefits Policy and Research beyond Paris

Japan-IIASA Workshop
Co-benefits Policy and Research beyond Paris
23 February 2016
Kenichi Wada
RITE Systems Analysis Group
Introduction
•
Last year, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) within the 2030 Development Agenda
was adopted in September, and the Paris Climate Change Agreement was adopted in
December
•
Reducing GHG emissions aligned with national sustainable development goals require
substantial transformational changes to many aspects of our economy. What are the
implications of Paris Agreement in the context of Sustainable Development?
•
What would be the research agenda for the post-Paris climate regime? Integrated
assessment of climate change policy in the context of multi-objective framing for better
understanding of climate policy tradeoffs & co-benefits.
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Paris Agreement
Long-term Goal
•
Article 2.1: This Agreement…aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate
change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, including by:
(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial
levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels…
•
Article 4.1: In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2, Parties aim to
reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible… so as to achieve a balance
between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the
second half of this century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development
and efforts to eradicate poverty.
INDCs
•
Article 3: As nationally determined contributions to the global response to climate change, all
Parties are to undertake and communicate ambitious efforts...
Co-benefits
•
Article4.7: Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic
diversification plans can contribute to mitigation outcomes under this Article.
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Emissions pathways for long-term climate goal
•
Emissions scenarios to limit warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels would
require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero CO2
emissions and other greenhouse gases by the end of the century.
•
Implementing such reductions poses substantial technological, economic, social and
institutional challenges.
Trend Break
in CO2 Emissions
Negative
Emissions
Pete Smith, et al. "Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions." Nature Climate Change 6.1 (2016): 42-50.
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Sustainable Development Goals
•
The post-2015 development agenda includes the 17 Sustainable Development Goals to
stimulate action over the next fifteen years in areas of critical importance for humanity and
the planet. Climate Action is “a” part of the goals.
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Co-benefits and Adverse side-effects
•
There are close connection among economic development, human health, water, energy,
land use and mitigation efforts.
•
Mitigation policies and actions can have positive as well as negative effects on broader
economic, social, and environmental context.
The potential areas where co-benefits and adverse side-effects occur
from mitigation measures for additional objectives
Economic
Energy security
Employment impact
New business opportunity/economic
activity
Social
Health impact (e.g. via air quality and
noise)
Energy/mobility access
(Fuel) Poverty alleviation
Food security
Productivity/competitiveness
Impact on local conflicts
Technological spillover/innovation
Safety/disaster resilience
Gender impact
(Source) IPCC AR5 WG3, Table 15.1
Environmental
Ecosystem impact (e.g. via air
pollution)
Land-use competition
Water use/quality
Biodiversity conservation
Urban heat island effect
Resource/material use impact
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Economic Impact
•
Estimates of the aggregate economic costs of mitigation vary widely, but increase with
stringency of mitigation.
•
Mitigation costs represent one component of the change in human welfare from climate
change. The required energy-system transformation would impose considerable costs,
particularly on developing countries.
(Source)
IPCC AR5 WG3 Figure TS.12
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Energy Systems
•
Decarbonizing energy supply is a key for mitigation strategies. Stringent climate goal requires
large-scale changes to global energy systems over the coming decades. The share of lowcarbon energy supply (renewable energy, nuclear and CCS) drastically increases in lowstabilization scenarios, which involves huge energy investment and induces a significant
change in the investment pattern.
Primary Energy Supply and Energy Mix
(Source) RITE
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Air Pollution and Climate Change
•
Reducing emissions of non-CO2 agents can be an important element of mitigation strategies
because it poses fewer political hurdles than cutting CO2.
 Existing technologies and policies readily allow for deep cuts in these pollutants.
 Controlling these pollutants actually serve the immediate interests of developing countries.
PM2.5 Air Quality in Asia
(2010-2012)
（Source）WHO
4 μg/m3
153 μg/m3
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Align international goal with national interests
•
The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed CO2 emissions standards for existing
power plants in the Clean Power Plan in June 2014. Carbon dioxide emissions standards for US
power plants will influence the fuel mix of power generation, and alter emissions of pollutants
such as SO2 and NOx, and influence ambient air quality and public health.
•
A plan to reduce short-lived pollutants would align the national-interests of the largest polluting
nations, such as China, India, and the United States.
Change in premature deaths avoided from the 2020 reference case
The results underscore that carbon
standards to curb global climate
change can also provide immediate
local and regional health co-benefits,
but the magnitude depends on the
design of the standards.
Driscoll, Charles T., et al. "US power plant carbon standards
and clean air and health co-benefits." Nature Climate Change
5.6 (2015): 535-540.
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BECCS and Sustainability
•
Mitigation scenarios to limit warming to below 2°C show large scale global changes in the
energy sector and the AFOLU sector. They typically rely on the availability and widespread
deployment of bioenergy with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation
in the second half of the century.
•
Large‐scale deployment of bioenergy include concerns about GHG emissions from land, food
security, water resources, and biodiversity.
Sectoral CO2 and Non-CO2 GHG Emissions with/without CCS
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(Source) IPCC AR5 WG3 Figure SPM7
Food Access
•
Deep emission cut has dual effects to food access. Less climate damage has a positive effect
on economy and food productivity, which improve food access. Huge mitigation costs and
and food price increase induced by bioenergy production and afforestation, however, can
make situation worse.
30%
－Δ(GDP)/GDP : due to climate change damages
20%
－Δ(GDP)/GDP : due to climate mitigation costs
15%
Δ(Food consumptions)/(Food consumptions):
due to change in food price induced by land-use
changes for bioenergy production and
afforestation
Δ(Food consumptions)/(Food consumptions):
due to change in food price induced by food
productivity change
10%
5%
0%
Δ(Food consumptions/GDP)/(Food
consumptions/GDP)
China
India
Midde-East &
N.Africa
Subsahara
Africa
CP3.0
CP3.7
CP4.5
CP6.0
CP3.0
CP3.7
CP4.5
CP6.0
CP3.0
CP3.7
CP4.5
CP6.0
CP3.0
CP3.7
CP4.5
CP6.0
CP3.0
CP3.7
CP4.5
-5%
CP6.0
Change in food access index
(%, relative to the baseline)
25%
Latin America
(Source) RITE
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Energy Security
•
According to IPCC stringent mitigation policy can contribute to improvement of energy
security, but energy situation varies widely among countries and regions.
•
Most of Asian countries get vulnerable in terms of energy security as carbon constraints are
tightened due to replacement from domestic coal to imported gas.
Energy security index
Vulnerability
10,000
8,000
ALPS A-Baseline (2050)
ALPS A-CP4.5 (2050)
6,000
ALPS A-CP3.0 (2050)
4,000
2,000
0
US
(Source) IPCC AR5 WG3 Figure TS.14
W. Europe
Japan
China
SE Asia
India and S.
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Asia
r : Political risk rating for country i, S : The percentage share of each supplier i in the international market
Integrated Assessment Framework of RITE
•
RITE’s analytic framework for understanding climate policies in the context of a broader set
of sustainable development objectives, including co-benefits and trade-offs for a range of
societal objectives.
Socio-economy
Assessment of
food access
Mid-term world
energy and
economic model:
DEARS (until 2050)
Energy
Assessment of energy
security (until 2050)
Assessment of food
security
GHGs excluding
energy-related CO2
Ultra-long-term energy and
macroeconomic model: DNE21
Assessment model for
GHGs excluding
energy-related CO2
Mid-term world energy and
mitigation measures
assessment model:
DNE21+ (until 2050)
Food, water resource, land use
Assessment models for food demand/supply ,
water resource and land use change
Assessment of
water stress
Assessment of population
living in poverty
Population, GDP
Climate change
Simplified climate change
model: MAGICC6
Grid-based estimation of
climate change: using results
from MIROC3.2
Estimation model for economic
damages from global warming
(developed by Nordhaus）
Impacts of global Assessment model for biodiversity
warming
（Impacts on terrestrial ecosystem and
ocean acidification）
Assessment model
for health impact
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New Scenario Process
• Thus far, scenarios were sequentially developed but they lack consistencies in GDP, land-use
and Non-CO2 emissions among research communities.
• The new scenario process is underway in a parallel manner. Climate scenarios (Representative
concentration pathways: RCPs) provide needed inputs of emissions, concentrations and land
use/cover for climate models. Socio-economic scenarios (SSPs) is developed to explore
important socio-economic uncertainties affecting both adaptation and mitigation.
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Moss, Richard H., et al. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment." Nature 463.7282 (2010): 747-756.
Conclusion
•
Climate change policy links sustainable development agenda. Increasing efforts to mitigate
and adapt to climate change has an impact on the other sustainable goals. Complex
interactions exist among human welfare, economy and environment.
•
Co-benefits can be an opportunity to align national interests with an international process
beyond Paris, strengthening climate actions identified in NDCs.
•
Rapid decarbonization of energy supply or negative CO2 emissions, which are implied in
Paris Agreement, have a huge impact on water, food, land use and energy.
•
Further research for integrated knowledge is required to understand climate policies in the
context of a broader set of sustainable goals, and to exploit as well as seek to balance
possible trade-offs among the multiple objectives.
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