* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Co-benefits Policy and Research beyond Paris
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Energiewende in Germany wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Paris Agreement wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Japan-IIASA Workshop Co-benefits Policy and Research beyond Paris 23 February 2016 Kenichi Wada RITE Systems Analysis Group Introduction • Last year, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) within the 2030 Development Agenda was adopted in September, and the Paris Climate Change Agreement was adopted in December • Reducing GHG emissions aligned with national sustainable development goals require substantial transformational changes to many aspects of our economy. What are the implications of Paris Agreement in the context of Sustainable Development? • What would be the research agenda for the post-Paris climate regime? Integrated assessment of climate change policy in the context of multi-objective framing for better understanding of climate policy tradeoffs & co-benefits. 2 Paris Agreement Long-term Goal • Article 2.1: This Agreement…aims to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change, in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, including by: (a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels… • Article 4.1: In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2, Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible… so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty. INDCs • Article 3: As nationally determined contributions to the global response to climate change, all Parties are to undertake and communicate ambitious efforts... Co-benefits • Article4.7: Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties’ adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans can contribute to mitigation outcomes under this Article. 3 Emissions pathways for long-term climate goal • Emissions scenarios to limit warming to below 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels would require substantial emissions reductions over the next few decades and near zero CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases by the end of the century. • Implementing such reductions poses substantial technological, economic, social and institutional challenges. Trend Break in CO2 Emissions Negative Emissions Pete Smith, et al. "Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions." Nature Climate Change 6.1 (2016): 42-50. 4 Sustainable Development Goals • The post-2015 development agenda includes the 17 Sustainable Development Goals to stimulate action over the next fifteen years in areas of critical importance for humanity and the planet. Climate Action is “a” part of the goals. 5 Co-benefits and Adverse side-effects • There are close connection among economic development, human health, water, energy, land use and mitigation efforts. • Mitigation policies and actions can have positive as well as negative effects on broader economic, social, and environmental context. The potential areas where co-benefits and adverse side-effects occur from mitigation measures for additional objectives Economic Energy security Employment impact New business opportunity/economic activity Social Health impact (e.g. via air quality and noise) Energy/mobility access (Fuel) Poverty alleviation Food security Productivity/competitiveness Impact on local conflicts Technological spillover/innovation Safety/disaster resilience Gender impact (Source) IPCC AR5 WG3, Table 15.1 Environmental Ecosystem impact (e.g. via air pollution) Land-use competition Water use/quality Biodiversity conservation Urban heat island effect Resource/material use impact 6 Economic Impact • Estimates of the aggregate economic costs of mitigation vary widely, but increase with stringency of mitigation. • Mitigation costs represent one component of the change in human welfare from climate change. The required energy-system transformation would impose considerable costs, particularly on developing countries. (Source) IPCC AR5 WG3 Figure TS.12 7 Energy Systems • Decarbonizing energy supply is a key for mitigation strategies. Stringent climate goal requires large-scale changes to global energy systems over the coming decades. The share of lowcarbon energy supply (renewable energy, nuclear and CCS) drastically increases in lowstabilization scenarios, which involves huge energy investment and induces a significant change in the investment pattern. Primary Energy Supply and Energy Mix (Source) RITE 8 Air Pollution and Climate Change • Reducing emissions of non-CO2 agents can be an important element of mitigation strategies because it poses fewer political hurdles than cutting CO2. Existing technologies and policies readily allow for deep cuts in these pollutants. Controlling these pollutants actually serve the immediate interests of developing countries. PM2.5 Air Quality in Asia (2010-2012) (Source)WHO 4 μg/m3 153 μg/m3 9 Align international goal with national interests • The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed CO2 emissions standards for existing power plants in the Clean Power Plan in June 2014. Carbon dioxide emissions standards for US power plants will influence the fuel mix of power generation, and alter emissions of pollutants such as SO2 and NOx, and influence ambient air quality and public health. • A plan to reduce short-lived pollutants would align the national-interests of the largest polluting nations, such as China, India, and the United States. Change in premature deaths avoided from the 2020 reference case The results underscore that carbon standards to curb global climate change can also provide immediate local and regional health co-benefits, but the magnitude depends on the design of the standards. Driscoll, Charles T., et al. "US power plant carbon standards and clean air and health co-benefits." Nature Climate Change 5.6 (2015): 535-540. 10 BECCS and Sustainability • Mitigation scenarios to limit warming to below 2°C show large scale global changes in the energy sector and the AFOLU sector. They typically rely on the availability and widespread deployment of bioenergy with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation in the second half of the century. • Large‐scale deployment of bioenergy include concerns about GHG emissions from land, food security, water resources, and biodiversity. Sectoral CO2 and Non-CO2 GHG Emissions with/without CCS 11 (Source) IPCC AR5 WG3 Figure SPM7 Food Access • Deep emission cut has dual effects to food access. Less climate damage has a positive effect on economy and food productivity, which improve food access. Huge mitigation costs and and food price increase induced by bioenergy production and afforestation, however, can make situation worse. 30% -Δ(GDP)/GDP : due to climate change damages 20% -Δ(GDP)/GDP : due to climate mitigation costs 15% Δ(Food consumptions)/(Food consumptions): due to change in food price induced by land-use changes for bioenergy production and afforestation Δ(Food consumptions)/(Food consumptions): due to change in food price induced by food productivity change 10% 5% 0% Δ(Food consumptions/GDP)/(Food consumptions/GDP) China India Midde-East & N.Africa Subsahara Africa CP3.0 CP3.7 CP4.5 CP6.0 CP3.0 CP3.7 CP4.5 CP6.0 CP3.0 CP3.7 CP4.5 CP6.0 CP3.0 CP3.7 CP4.5 CP6.0 CP3.0 CP3.7 CP4.5 -5% CP6.0 Change in food access index (%, relative to the baseline) 25% Latin America (Source) RITE 12 Energy Security • According to IPCC stringent mitigation policy can contribute to improvement of energy security, but energy situation varies widely among countries and regions. • Most of Asian countries get vulnerable in terms of energy security as carbon constraints are tightened due to replacement from domestic coal to imported gas. Energy security index Vulnerability 10,000 8,000 ALPS A-Baseline (2050) ALPS A-CP4.5 (2050) 6,000 ALPS A-CP3.0 (2050) 4,000 2,000 0 US (Source) IPCC AR5 WG3 Figure TS.14 W. Europe Japan China SE Asia India and S. 13 Asia r : Political risk rating for country i, S : The percentage share of each supplier i in the international market Integrated Assessment Framework of RITE • RITE’s analytic framework for understanding climate policies in the context of a broader set of sustainable development objectives, including co-benefits and trade-offs for a range of societal objectives. Socio-economy Assessment of food access Mid-term world energy and economic model: DEARS (until 2050) Energy Assessment of energy security (until 2050) Assessment of food security GHGs excluding energy-related CO2 Ultra-long-term energy and macroeconomic model: DNE21 Assessment model for GHGs excluding energy-related CO2 Mid-term world energy and mitigation measures assessment model: DNE21+ (until 2050) Food, water resource, land use Assessment models for food demand/supply , water resource and land use change Assessment of water stress Assessment of population living in poverty Population, GDP Climate change Simplified climate change model: MAGICC6 Grid-based estimation of climate change: using results from MIROC3.2 Estimation model for economic damages from global warming (developed by Nordhaus) Impacts of global Assessment model for biodiversity warming (Impacts on terrestrial ecosystem and ocean acidification) Assessment model for health impact 14 New Scenario Process • Thus far, scenarios were sequentially developed but they lack consistencies in GDP, land-use and Non-CO2 emissions among research communities. • The new scenario process is underway in a parallel manner. Climate scenarios (Representative concentration pathways: RCPs) provide needed inputs of emissions, concentrations and land use/cover for climate models. Socio-economic scenarios (SSPs) is developed to explore important socio-economic uncertainties affecting both adaptation and mitigation. 15 Moss, Richard H., et al. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment." Nature 463.7282 (2010): 747-756. Conclusion • Climate change policy links sustainable development agenda. Increasing efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change has an impact on the other sustainable goals. Complex interactions exist among human welfare, economy and environment. • Co-benefits can be an opportunity to align national interests with an international process beyond Paris, strengthening climate actions identified in NDCs. • Rapid decarbonization of energy supply or negative CO2 emissions, which are implied in Paris Agreement, have a huge impact on water, food, land use and energy. • Further research for integrated knowledge is required to understand climate policies in the context of a broader set of sustainable goals, and to exploit as well as seek to balance possible trade-offs among the multiple objectives. 16