Download Talk 6 - Climate change impacts on agriculture and water resources

Serhat Sensoy, Chief of Climatology Division, TSMS, Ankara, Turkey
Osman Simsek, Head of AgM&O Department, TSMS, Ankara, Turkey
Gultekin Yalcin, Director, Climatology Division, TSMS, Ankara, Turkey
Yusuf Ulupinar, Enginner in Hydromet. Division TSMS, Ankara, Turkey
Mesut Demircan, Enginner in Climatology Division TSMS, Ankara, Turkey
Izzet Balta,
Enginner in Climatology Division TSMS, Ankara, Turkey
Gulay P. Mengu Assoc. Prof. Ege U., Agricultural Faculty, Izmir, Turkey
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Presentation Plan
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The climate system
Observed changes in climate
Future projections
Climate change impacts on agriculture
Climate change impacts on water resources
Agriculturally related climate indices
TSMS agricultural products
Conclusion
Climate system is comprised by the
Energy from the sun heats the earth’s
complicated interactions among the
surface; in turn, the earth radiates energy
atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere,
back into space. The greenhouse effect is a
the surface lithosphere and the biosphere.
necessary phenomenon. Without it, Earth
temperature would be -18°C. But the
Greenhouse gases trap some of the
outgoing energy and maintain Earth’s
temperature 15°C. However, too many
GHG could increase in mean temperatures
Radiative flux balance
Climate change:
In addition to the observed natural climate variability; it is a change in climate
due to anthropogenic contribution to the atmosphere (UNFCCC). Technically
climate changes , usually characterized by a shift in means.
Small changes in the mean can cause a large change in the
likelihood of extreme event.
The pre industrial levels of CO2 approximately 280 ppm would then double by
the end of the next century.
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OBSERVED CHANGES IN CLIMATE
Global average temperatures increased (0.7°C)
Precipitation increased in high latitudes
(likely to be 0.5 to 1%/inches)
 Global mean sea-level has risen (1.0 to 2.0 mm/yr)
 Arctic sea-ice thickness declined
 Water vapor increased over N. Hemisphere
 Total ozone losses above the Arctic
 ENSO has been unusual since the mid-1970s;
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IPCC 4th ASSESMENT_TEMPERATURE PROJECTION
Projected surface temperature changes for the early and late 21st century.
If the PDF is widespread, it means that too many extreme event could be occurred.
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IPCC 4th ASSESMENT_PRECIPITATION PROJECTION
Relative changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–
2099, relative to 1980–1999.
Multi model projections show
increasing precipitation in the north latitude but decreasing in the
Mediterranean.
Stippled areas are where more than 90% of the models agree in
the sign of the change
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT
Climate change will be impact on agriculture and water resources by affecting
crop yield and irrigation demand.
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There will be some benefits and drawbacks of the climate change on agriculture.
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Increased temperature effect on cereal yield
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Increased CO2 concentration will be increase wheat yield
because of the enhanced CO2 assimilation (Danish Institute).
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Only developed countries could be convert negative climate effect to positive with their
adaptation capacity. Developing countries and world total only could be mitigating.
In Turkey, there are 26 river basins in terms of hydrology. 17 of the rivers have no water
stress problems in terms of total water potential, but the Meriç, Ergene, Sakarya and
Kızılırmak basins are experiencing chronic water stress, and the Küçük Menderes basin
is close to the absolute water stress level (Onder and Onder, 2007).
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Climate Indices
RClimDex produced
by Xuebin Zhang from
Met. Service of Canada
http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ET
CCDMI/
prec.
p.
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Growing Season Length has increasing over Turkey except for coastal regions. This
will be have a positive effect on summer agricultural products but some negative
affects will be experienced by orchards which they need chilling requirement.
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Numbers of Frost Days have been increasing mainly in Black Sea and Marmara
Region. 53 stations have decreasing trend while 32 are increasing. Average
decreasing is 28 days in 100 years.
Middle East Climate Indices
Warm days
and
warm nights
are increasing
Over Mediterranean
www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2005/2005JD006181.shtml
Temporal and spatial temperature and precipitation anomalies in 2009
AgroMeteorology
Harvest Time Estimates
The “Harvest Time Estimates” prepared in order to find the cumulative
temperature degree, that the plants need for growing and developing, and to
guess the harvest time by using these merits and to determine the appropriate
planting areas of culture plants in our country, is announced through our web
site.
The type and the kind of the plant, and the
starting time is entered by the user. The
minimum, maximum and the total
temperature degrees are taken from the
database. When you click the “show”
button, you see the result as “The harvest
time for ……….plant you have chosen is
………..” by calculating the day meeting
total temperature requirement of the
seed.
AgroMeteorology
Blooming
Phenology Atlas
Pear , Quince , Almond,
Wineyard , Apple , Plum,
Hazelnut, Apricot, Cherry,
Tangerine, Orange,
Peach, Olive.
Bearing
Maturing
AgroMeteorology
Productivity Estimate
Product Tracing and Productivity Estimate
The project has been financed by the FAO
(United
Nations
Food
and
Agriculture
Organization) and realized collectively by TSMS,
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, TAGEM
(General Directorate for Agricultural Research),
TİGEM (General Directorate of Agricultural
Operations) and TÜİK (Turkish Statistical
Institute) .
The product productivity estimates are done by
using meteorological data and the Agro
meteorological simulation model (AgroMetShellv
1.5) improved by FAO.
The results are announced in our web site as
average merits of cities.
Estimated Wheat Crop Yield for the year 2007
(Calculated for every year)
AgroMeteorology
Frost Risk Maps
Agriculrural Frost Risk Maps are prepared and published on web page for 4
days and are updated every day.
Extreme Events
Assessments
N.of extreme events have been
increased in around 1960’s, 1980’s
and 2000’s. The year 2009 has
been took place 1st rank with 461
occurred extreme events.
In Turkey most frequent and
hazardous extreme event are
storm, floods and hails. Although
occurred very rarely, sandstorm,
mud rain, fog, landslide, tornado
and avalanche also observed.
http://emcc.dmi.gov.tr/
TSMS is delivering climate monitoring and seasonal forecast products to the
Eastern Mediterranean countries through web site as a contrıbutıon to the RA VI
Pılot RCC Network. These climate prediction and information services contribute
to enhanced social and economic resilience and decision making in many climatesensitive sectors such as water, agriculture, fisheries, health, forestry, transport,
tourism, energy and disaster risk management in the region
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Conclusion
•Climate change is already happening and will be impact on agriculture and water
sector. There will be some benefits and drawbacks.
•Model projections show increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation in
the Mediterranean.
•Frequency and severity of extreme events such as heat wave, flooding and drought
will be increased in the region.
•In the Mediterranean where water will become a limiting factor, productivity could
potentially be reduced due to the added stress of heat and salinization.
•According to the three GCM scenarios, only developed countries could be convert
negative climate effect to positive with their adaptation capacity. Developing
countries only could be mitigating.
•Trends in climate indices shows large coherent patterns of warming, decreasing
precipitation but increasing extreme event in the Mediterranean.
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Serhat Sensoy, Osman Simsek, Gultekin Yalcin, Yusuf Ulupinar, Mesut Demircan, Izzet Balta,
Turkish State Meteorological Service, Ankara, Turkey
Gulay P. Mengu Assoc. Prof. Ege U., Agricultural Faculty, Izmir, Turkey
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