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ETHICS AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR JUSTICE AND SUSTAINABILITY edited by Matteo Mascia and Lucia Mariani First published: June 2010 ISBN 978 88 6129 554 4 CLEUP SC “Coop. Libraria Editrice Università di Padova” www.cleup.it © Copyright 2010 by Fondazione Lanza - Padova via Dante 55 – 35139 Padova www.fondazionelanza.it All right reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purposes of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Cover design by Germano Bertin Graphic design by Massimo Maltauro TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Matteo Mascia, Lucia Mariani Ethics and Climate Change: International Agreements and State Responsibilities 3 Section I “SCIENCE, ETHICS AND POLITICS FACING CLIMATE CHANGE: AN OVERVIEW” Antonio Navarra, Sergio Castellari Climate Change and Science 17 Carlo Jaeger et al. Stern’s Review and Adam’s Fallacy 27 Wolfgang Sachs Climate Change and Human Rights 43 Karl-Ludwig Schibel Climate Justice and Human Rights in Global Mitigation and Local Adaptation 53 Marco Morosini A “2000 Watt Society” in 2050: a Realistic Vision? 59 Section II “ETHICS, EQUITY AND SUSTAINABILITY ON CLIMATE CHANGE” Robin Attfield Climate Change: the Ethical Dimension 77 Simon Caney Equity and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Climate-Changing Emissions Distribution: Criteria for a Shared Justice 85 V Gian Luigi Brena, Matteo Mascia, Simone Morandini Solidarity and Justice: an Ethics of Equal Rights for the Use of the Atmospheric Commons 111 Arvind Jasrotia Ethical Dimensions of Climate Change: a Perspective 131 Vito De Lucia Responsibility, Distribution and Climate Justice 151 Thomas Heyd The Challenge of Climate Change, Cultural Frameworks, and Responsibilities to Act 165 Carmen Velayos Castelo Which Responsibility for Climate Change? 177 Section III “SPIRITUALITY AND RELIGIONS DISCUSSING CLIMATE CHANGE” Simone Morandini Religions and Sustainability 191 Saji Kanayankal et al. A Theological and Ethical Response to the Climate Change in the Light of the Biblical Covenant Tradition 199 Gianpaolo Salvini Christianity facing Climate Change 213 Adnane Mokrani Ecological Thoughts in the Spirit of the Koran 219 Amos Luzzatto Climate Change: a Jewish Perspective 225 Section IV “ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL ANSWERS TO CLIMATE CHANGE” Carlo Carraro, Alice Favero The Changing Climate: Economic Impacts and Perspectives for Future Economic Development VI 235 Antonio Ereno Policies and Measures in the European Industry to reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions 253 Donatella Porrini Corporate Environmental Liability and Financial Institutions 265 Paola S. Lupo Stanghellini et al. Climate Change, Sustainability and Corporate Social Responsibility: the Role of Financial Institutions 277 Xianli Zhu Emissions Scenarios and Development Projections in China 293 Irina Glazyrina Economic Growth, Climate Policy and a Problem of Burden-Sharing: Russian Chinese Relationships Case Study 319 Section V “CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOCIETY” Giuseppe Pellegrini Climate, Energy, and Society 333 Edi Valpreda, Roberta Chiarini Climate Change Perception. The Case of Italy 343 Enrico Euli, Stefano Caserini Information on Climate Change, between Denial and Alarm 355 Silvana Kühtz A Path to new Lifestyles: Value Orientation facing Climate Change 363 Stefano Caserini Climate Denialism Evolution and the Delay of Mitigation Actions 373 VII Alessandro Chiaudani et al. Climatic Trends in the Veneto Region (1956-2004) 383 Appendix Final Document Towards a New Global Responsibility VIII 391 INTRODUCTION ETHICS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS AND STATE RESPONSIBILITIES Matteo Mascia – Lucia Mariani* 1. At the time of climate change For the first time in human history, we find ourselves facing a crisis that affects the ability of supplying resources and absorbing additional alterations and pollutions not just by a specific territory or geographical area, but by the whole planet. Data on the state of the world and several indicators recording the health of our common house are seriously worrying and require, without further delay, prompt actions in the direction of a dramatic reduction of the human footprint on hearth1. Paul Crutzen, Nobel prize for Chemistry, defined this historical period, strongly characterized by human intervention, as the “Anthropocene” epoch: “Differently than the Pleistocene, the Holocene, and all the other prior epochs, the present era is characterized mostly by human impact on the environment. We are the new strength, able to move more matter than volcanoes and wind together, damage entire continents, alter water, nitrogen, and carbon cycles, and cause the most marked and sudden rise of gas quantity in the atmosphere in the last 15 million years”2. In particular, climate change issue represents one of the focal points in the serious planetary emergency our societies will have to deal with in the XXI century. Thanks to the scientific research, the understanding of climate change mechanisms is extraordinarily im- Ethics and Environmental Policies Project, Fondazione Lanza, Italy. Particularly extensive is the literature on the subject, for all we recommend: Worldwatch Institute, State of the World 2009, Worldwatch Institute, Washington D.C. 2009; Stern, N., A Blueprint for a Safer Place: How to Manage Climate Change and Create a New Era of Progress and Prosperity, Bodley Head Adults, 2009; Ruffolo, G., Il capitalismo ha i secoli contati, Einaudi, Torino 2008; Sachs, W., Santarius, T., Fair Future: Resource Conflicts, Security and Global Justice, Fernwood Publishing Co., Black Point 2007; Stern, N., The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge 2006. Many reports can be directly downloaded from the IPPC, UNEP, and EEA websites: www.ipcc.org; www.unep.org; www.eea.europe.eu. 2 Free translation from Paul J. Crutzen, Benvenuti nell’antropocene! L’uomo ha cambiato il clima. La terra entra in una nuova era, Mondatori Editore, Milano 2005. * 1 3 Introduction proved in recent years allowing the accurate outlining of the problem, not just in its primary effects on temperature, but also identifying those sectors that will suffer the most from these changes. The possible scenarios for a future evolution, which have been confirmed by the Fourth Assessment Report (2007) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) – made up of more than 2,500 scientists worldwide –, emphasize all the main events that, from now on up to the end of the century, will mark the earth’s climatic evolution and consequently affect people’s safety and quality of life everywhere in the world, today and in the future: temperature rise, increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events (heat waves, heavy rainfalls, hurricanes…), irregular rainfall distribution. An increasing number of reports (Stern, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change, UNDP, UNEP) have started to investigate the macroeconomic effects which, in the near future, will hit, directly or indirectly, all the sectors of the international economic system. The World Health Organization is now studying, with greater accuracy and precision than ever, the relevant impacts on people and communities’ health as consequence of a shift in the climatic zones3. A further threat is given by the interaction between climate changes and other dramatic global issues: food emergency as one effect of rainfall reduction worldwide caused by temperature rise, new impressive migration flows of individuals fleeing from ecosystems the more and more uninhabitable, and others. 2. Political responses from Kyoto to Copenhagen The first and most important response to such global issue at international level has been the signing of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the end of the World Conference on Environment and Development of Rio de Janeiro. The Convention, effective since 1994, is a framework agreement where concrete measures contrasting climate change do not appear, but some fundamental principles, confirmed by the following negotiations, are strongly affirmed. On one side, there is the necessity of stabilizing gas concentration in the atmosphere to a level able to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interferences with the climate system, concentration that, recently, has been computed in 450 ppm (today it is equal to 385 ppm). According to the most recent data, such CO2 concentration share in See Menne, B., Ebi, K.L. (eds.), Climate change and adaptation strategies for human health, Steinkopff Verlag, Darmstadt 2006; Kirch, W., Menne, B., Bertollini, R. (eds.), Extreme weather events and public health responses, Springer, Berlin 2005. 3 4 M. Mascia – L. Mariani the atmosphere will allow to maintain the global average temperature rise within 2°C, the maximum threshold for the world temperature beyond which the risks for the human species would become excessive. Common, but differentiated, responsibility is the second relevant principle. According to such concept all the countries are called to do their parts in reducing emissions, but some, the industrialized nations, on account of their historical responsibilities, are the first asked to act. This principle is the basis of the following Kyoto Protocol, undersigned in 1997 and implemented in 2005 providing commitments only for industrialized countries, in the West and in the East, and for those in transition in Central and Eastern Europe, but not for developing countries. 2.1 The Kyoto Protocol Today, such Protocol represents the main political response, at international level, concerning the mitigation of climate change effects. As we know, the target for global greenhouse gas emission reduction approved in Kyoto is 5.2% compared to 1990. It should be achieved by 2012 when the terms of the agreement will have to be renegotiated providing differentiated reductions according to the contribution of single countries and their respective potentialities and socio-economic conditions. The Kyoto Protocol identifies three main actions in order to contrast climate change: energy efficiency improvement in different economic sectors (industry, transport, energy…); research development and renewable energy sources; reforestation activities to increase greenhouse gas absorption. Next to policies to be realized within any single nation, three innovative market-oriented tools are introduced to better control emissions. They are: Joint Implementation (JI), allowing industrialized and transition countries to stipulate agreements in order to jointly manage the obligations on emission reduction; Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) promoting cooperation agreements with developing countries for the transfer of clean technologies; Emission Trading according to which a country, by adopting the reduction goals, is able to buy or sell CO2 quotas from or to another country (emission permits). The objective is to promote cooperation policies aimed at reducing global emissions, between developed countries, with consolidated or in transition economies, and developing nations. Actually, emissions have no borders therefore the physical place where the reduction occurs does not really matter, but it is very important that it is accomplished. Furthermore, we need to look for the least cost pos5 Introduction sible and, to this regards, today, it results more convenient to export clean technologies in a country in the East or South of the world than to realize new low-impact plants in industrialized countries. The answer coming from Kyoto is very crucial even though still partial. It is important since it sanctions, with a legal and binding tool, the commitment of the international community and states to act in order to cross climate change. With it, the juridical basis, concerning nations’ effort towards the reduction of their CO2 emissions and the creation of new bodies and financial tools able to support and guide climate stabilization policies, are placed. This is not sufficient yet since, first, the reduction targets proposed are very low as regards to the most recent scientific indications requiring cuts of 20/30% by 2020 and 50% by 2050, always looking at the 1990 levels. Secondly, because it requires reduction commitments only from industrialized countries, besides the fact the United States never signed it. In the present situation, characterized by the growing economic development of emerging countries (China, India, Brazil, South Africa), with consequent high fossil fuel energy production and consumption, emission reduction only by old industrialized countries would result insufficient for the achievement of the reduction objective of 50% emissions by 2050. In such perspective it appears clear that the Kyoto model is not realistically feasible since we cannot afford to risk as much! 2.2 Towards Copenhagen In these past years, through the yearly Conferences of the Parties, a harsh debate has been initiated with the intention of sharing new and more stringent strategies aimed at developing and strengthening policies and actions on emission reduction at global, national, and local level. An important step has been taken in occasion of the Bali Conference, in December 2007, when almost all the world countries have undersigned the strategic objective of 50% greenhouse gas reduction by 2050 in order to hold down the temperature rise within 2°C. A road map for future negotiations, consisting in a number of forward-looking decisions representing the various tracks that are essential to reaching a secure climate future, has been approved in Bali. Mitigation actions, aimed at reducing present and future emissions through energy efficiency measures; renewable energy sources development; improvement of the GHG absorption capacity by the natural environment (the so-called sinks such as forests and rural soils). Adaptation measures addressed to contain the negative effects of ongoing climatic changes through sound regional planning and the protection of coastal areas, road and water supply infrastructures, and 6 M. Mascia – L. Mariani natural and urban areas in order to prevent the social and health consequences of global warming negative effects. The development of a strong partnership for the transfer of low-emission clean technologies from rich countries to developing ones is also a crucial aspect in improving socio-economic conditions without increasing emissions and supporting adaptation policies and measures for climate change. Another important area of action is the definition of new multilateral and financial tools able to support the above-mentioned activities. If there is any awareness about the fact that we are facing a global problem in front of which each State will have to do its part in order to reduce emissions, the four thematic areas just listed represent as much problematic knots difficult to solve and where the international negotiations in preparation of the Copenhagen Conference came to a standstill. How many emissions will every State cut down? Who will have to take upon himself the costs of adaptation policies and technology transfers to the poorest countries, less historically responsible of the climate change, but greatly affected by it? With which resources will the new proposed financial tools have to be supported? At present (November 2009), actually, the preliminary negotiations which ought to draw up a draft for a new post-Kyoto international juridical agreement effective by 2010, do not seem to have found any answer to such questions. The next Conference on climate in the Danish capital is getting ready to register another umpteenth failure by the International Community as consequence of the irreconcilable disagreement among the State involved. Either within industrialized countries (USA versus European Union, but also among the EU countries themselves), either between them and the developing countries which, on their turn, include the rapidly growing nations responsible, them too, for present and future emissions. Beyond the evident political and economic difficulties of an effective response to climate change it is clear that also in this occasion resistance to change and national interest protection have prevailed over the common good of the human family of today and tomorrow. There is no common will in starting up a strong action at global level to both initiate a deep revision of the present development model and put the basis for new low-emission economies. 3. A feasible path The size of the problems and the undeniable difficulty to find shared remedies on a global scale does not to discourage the continuing search for possible solutions and the necessity of looking for innovative answers that do not have to necessarily involve all the states in the same way and at the same time. 7 Introduction In this perspective the ethical reflection can offer an important contribution in the definition of justice and equity criteria in order to allow the drafting of a new international juridical agreement. Which justice and equity criteria will have to guide the formulation of a new international juridical agreement by 2012 when we have to renegotiate the Kyoto Protocol? To which conditions will it be possible to involve developing countries in the climate-altering emission repartition? Which criteria of equity will have to be pursued to share out the costs of mitigation and adaptation policies, keeping in mind that developing countries are more vulnerable, due to their resources scarcity in contrasting the effects on societies and natural environment? These are just some of the questions that from now on will be at the centre of the international public debate and to which we will have to try to soundly answer in the sense of a reasonable division of responsibilities and costs in order to allow and promote a sustainable economy in the South of the world and a simultaneous transformation of the prevailing economic model in industrialized countries. 4. Book’s contents The book, through its many contribution, wants to offer a plurality of reflections and proposals in order to facilitate the understanding of the climate change phenomenon and the complexity of the responses that have to be adopted in order to move forward the building up of a sustainable society. Some contributions, however, offer a first indication of the possible paths to take so to pro-actively respond to the challenges presented by climate change. Great attention has been put on the ethical dimension of climate change, with the full knowledge that it is at this level of analysis and proposal that we need to look for those shared common principles with which to start an effective action simultaneously addressed to many government levels (international, national, regional-local), diverse spheres of action (economic, social, environmental, cultural), and different actors (institutions, business, citizens) and initiating complex processes in the direction of a change of the prevailing socio-economic system through the coordination of local and global actions and the involvement of active subjects in the community. The first section proposes a sort of overview on the necessity to adopt a multidisciplinary and multilevel approach in order to identify the scale of the transformations inherent to climate change. Navarra and Castellari assert the crucial role of the scientific research in favouring the understanding of the complexity of the climatic system whose balance depends on the interrelations of the 8 M. Mascia – L. Mariani countless natural sub-systems and the amount of intrusions introduced in the last decades and due to human development. The importance of a ever more accurate scientific knowledge is at the basis of the work of the IPCC whose fourth report, summarized in the article, offers a relevant series of data and projections on historical climate trends, present and future, crucial base for response policies. Jaeger’s essay emphasizes the importance of the economic dimension and its ethical implications moving from the publication of the Stern Report. That book has played a fundamental role in making the economic world aware of the medium and long-term challenges posed by climate change in terms of both costs and opportunities. The article proposes an effective comparison between the consequences of the First World War and the potential effects in terms of human suffering and economic loss due to global warming. Sach’s contribution, instead, focuses on the social dimension moving form the awareness that the climate change impacts will result asymmetric as regards to the geography of the planet. The poorest and most vulnerable countries, people and communities with less resources to actively react towards climatic transformations, will be hit the most. Under this perspective it is not just a single right to be threatened but the whole stock of human rights pertaining to any single individual. Therefore, climate protection deals not only with nature and ecosystem protection, but basically with the defence and promotion of human rights. In this perspective, Schibel’s paper underlines the importance of a glocal approach in the adoption of concrete adaptation policies against climate change pointing out the crucial role of local institutions. Through the definition and implementation of land use, energy, transport, and waste collection planning (etc.), local communities can give their contribution to GHG emission reduction improving, at the same time, people’s quality of life. This first section is closed by Morosini presenting the “2.000 Watt Society” project with which Switzerland wants to pursue the objective of achieving, by 2050, a 2.000 Watt per capita energy consumption. The proposal upholds a proper mix of energy-efficiency and energy-sufficiency strategies in addressing climate change. More energy-efficiency means technological improvement, which reduces primary energy usage, while more energy-sufficiency implies reducing the demand of final energy services. Change takes time and measures need to be put into place now in order to influence societal change and respond to environmental pressures. The second section is dedicated to the ethical dimension in climate change and represents the core of the book. Climate change 9 Introduction constitutes an urgent moral and prudential problem: the States should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities, and should implement respective capabilities taking precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Attfield, Caney, Brena-Mascia-Morandini’s texts reflect and discuss upon the ethical principles and the possible justice criteria that should be the foundations of the new multilateral agreement for the emission control. Different approaches are analyzed: the so-called “Contraction and Convergence Principle”, “Comparable Burdens Principle”, and “Ability to pay Principle”. All this to argue on and search for effective responses to two crucial questions leading to a theory of fair emissions dealing with the nature of moral rights bearer: “What entities have the moral rights to emit greenhouse gases?” and the nature of the distributive principle to be employed “What principle of distributive justice should govern the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions?”. Ethical principles must be taken as presupposition for responsibility, duty and opportunity-sharing solutions in order to satisfy worldwide countries’ development aspirations and their right to equal access to resources possible despite the necessity of strict emission reductions. On the distributive justice issue, two essays, presenting different scientific and cultural points of view, are proposed. Jasrotia reminds us how Indian ancient philosophy has all along pursued and advocated both an holistic environmental sense towards all living and non-living beings and an all creatures-wide distributive justice, while De Lucia provides in his essay a lay critical overview of the distributive articulations of climate justice, emphasizing the instrumentalhegemonic role of justice and the role of civil society. Two articles, written by Heyd and Velayos Castelo, conclude the section and deal with the cultural transformations required by climate change and the necessity of rethinking and expanding the ethical concept of responsibility. Under this renewed meaning responsibility needs to be applied to climatic ethics and other contemporary applied ethics having to do with the consequences of what we do or even of what we do not do. The third section, focusing on the role of Spirituality and Religions offers an interesting comparison among the positions of the three main monotheistic religions (Christianity, Judaism, Islam), on the matter of climate change. The role of religions in this matter is to 10 M. Mascia – L. Mariani recognize its guiding role in educating the believers to more environment-aware behaviours and more responsible attitudes towards the weakest and the poorest, and teaching them a sobriety respectful of the earth as our common house. Religions, therefore, ought to overcome their oppositions and identify areas and possibilities of common action for a sustainable future of present and future generations on earth. Religions, indeed, despite their differences, can offer some intuitions on meanings and values, skills in ethical discernment within the framework of a responsible collaboration and a multi-voiced dialogue. While Morandini and Kanayankal discuss on Christianity’s theological and ethical dimension, Salvini, Mokrani and Luzzatto offer insights on the spirituality of their respective religious traditions. The fourth section is dedicated to economic and financial issues being one of the crucial knots in the implementation of concrete and effective policies facing climate change. At the same time climate change itself represents an unprecedented and highly complex threat to long-term economic interests across the spectrum of financial and industrial activities. It poses major risks not only to environment and human health, but also to the global economic system. The opening article, by Carraro-Favero, highlights how, today, the high cost of climate policies or their inconvenience with regards to other earth’s problems are topical subjects. Climate change mitigation costs are wrongly rumoured to remove resources which could be used to tackle problems such as the struggle against poverty, diseases, etc. Contrariwise, higher GHG prices would help generate incentives for reducing production and consumption of emission-intensive goods and for the development and adoption of low-zero carbon emission technologies. In addition, the costs of mitigation should be distributed equitably across countries, in particular considering their different level of past responsibility and their level of knowledge and technologies development. Action over the coming decade is critical because infrastructures put in place now, in either developed or developing countries, will persist for many decades; so, it is important for developed countries to demonstrate leadership in changing their energy systems and investing in cleaner technologies. A crucial role in this matter must be played by the business and finance world as pointed out by Ereno, Stanghellini-Marchetto-Michetti, and Porrini. We cannot forget that, today, especially on the side of the political challenge, the fate of humankind depends to a large extent on China. Zhu’s paper documents China’s ambitious national plans for energy conservation and its effort towards GHG reduction. 11 Introduction While Glazyrina’s paper presents an emblematic case where climate change, by modifying the environmental balances of a territory – in this case a river basin shared by three different states (Russia, China, Mongolia) – and those of the populations living in the area, creates a delicate situation calling for a burden-sharing approach in the trans-border economic relations of the nations involved. The fifth and final section of the book collects the outcomes of some research and studies concerning the perception of the risks of climate change in society and the role played by the media. Pellegrini and Valpreda-Chiarini present the outcomes of two separate surveys based on questionnaires where it comes out that Italians are aware of both the risks of global warming and the causes behind it. They are also conscious that personal commitment to different lifestyles and the adoption of new practices, such as critical consumption, use of alternative energies and participation in public debate and decision-making processes, are necessary steps if we want to do something against the alarming projections. On the other side the contributions by Caserini, Euli-Caserini, Kuhtz, emphasize how the public opinion, facing such ambivalent information offered mostly by press and television, has, sometime unconsciously refused to believe in data demanding the unsettling of the current development model and status quo expressing a kind of mistrust in the scientific community and its messages. The prevailing attitude of the Italian media, to adopt a sort of par condicio between the sceptical and the catastrophic positions concerning climate change, has, even if motivated by different goals, acted against any serious prise en charge of the issue by policymakers who have used the different degrees of scientific uncertainty and the lack of unanimity on the matter in the scientific community as good alibis not to take any proactive decision in environmental policies so to contrast climate change future scenarios. At the point we are now, enough data have been collected appraising the responsibility of human activities in the global warming phenomenon, numeric scenarios have been elaborated on the basis of data and historical series available, and the majority of scientists all over the world agree on the causes and predictable consequences of climate change worldwide. Therefore, climate science should be allowed to shift from assessing and convincing the public opinion on the dangers of climate change, that, by the way, are under people’s eyes, to instead focusing on formulating and proposing effective adaptation and mitigation measures. 12 M. Mascia – L. Mariani The article by Chiaudani et al. ends the section presenting temperature data and physical evidence of a climatic change in the Veneto region since the Fifties. As closing remarks, the Final Document of the Conference proposes some insights and argumentations as regards to a possible ethical, equitable and shared approach aimed at the achievement of an international agreement for the continuation and strengthening of mitigation and adaptation actions to face climate change at the expiry of the Kyoto Protocol (2012). The text ends with eight recommendations presented during a side event in occasion of the COP 14 – Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Poznan, Poland, on December 2008. 13 APPENDIX TOWARDS A NEW GLOBAL RESPONSIBILITY Final Document 1. Introduction Climate change is one of the focal points concerning the great ecological crisis that all societies find themselves dealing with in the XXI century. Other dramatic global problems, like water and food shortage as well as endangered biodiversity and energy security, are linked to this and are crucial to the whole humankind. Several people especially those who result more vulnerable, such as environmental refugees, little islands or urban slums inhabitants, may see their human rights jeopardized. To contain global warming in a timely and efficient way is an important challenge for the sustainability of our future. This need clearly emerged during the last Conference of the Member States of the Convention on Climate in Bali, in December 2007: the conclusions committed International community to search for an agreement towards an effective and sustainable implementation, within 2009, of new and more binding targets in order to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs). In these last months, the difficulty of achieving such goal has emerged as well as the awareness that it will be impossible to cope with such task without justice criteria, around which building a consensus and a joint action among the various components of the human family. Religions and churches have given significant indications on this issue: the recent Benedetto XVI’s plea as well as the positions of the Third European Ecumenical Assembly of Sibiu (September 2007) are important signals in this direction. These themes have been considered by the VI International Conference on Ethics and Environmental Policies, dedicated to Ethics and Climate Change. Scenarios for justice and sustainability, held in Padua from the 23rd to the 25th of October 2008, on the initiative of This document is the outcome of the Sixth International Conference on Ethics and Environmental Policies, “Ethics and Climate Change. Scenarios for Justice and Sustainability”, organized by the Fondazione Lanza and the CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Changes) in Padova on October 23-25, 2008. 391 Towards a New Global Responsibility the Fondazione Lanza, in cooperation with the Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climatic Changes, Climate Alliance Italy, Observa Science and Society, and under the patronage of Mr. Terry Davis, General Secretary of the European Council, the UNESCO, the President of the Italian Republic, the Italian Ministry for the Environment, the Centre of Human Ecology of the University of Padua, and the Italian Coordination Local Agenda 21. 2. Analysis 2.1 Consistency of scientific data Global warming is a complex phenomenon, that depends on a large variety of factors and manifests itself in diverse ways in different areas of the planet. The vast amount of information and data processed in the last years by scientific research has, however, found an effective and balanced synthesis in the IV Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of the United Nations on Climate Change (IPCC), made up of more than 2500 scientists from all over the world. The result is a clear understanding of the phenomenon, which highlights the impossibility of explaining it without taking into account greenhouse gases produced by human activities. It is, therefore, a phenomenon with significant anthropogenic components in which the use of fossil fuels for energy production plays a crucial role. 3. Consequences The consequences induced by the primary effects on temperature, rainfalls and other components of climatic events have also been widely analyzed. Many are the problems that from now up to the end of the century will very probably weigh on the quality of people’s life throughout the world: the rising of sea level, the increase of extreme phenomena (heat waves and hurricanes) and the irregular distribution of rainfalls. Climate change will have macroeconomic consequences affecting directly and indirectly almost all sectors of the world economic system. The shift of climatic belts risks to cause relevant impacts also on health level, favouring the spread of diseases in areas previously unfamiliar with these. Planetary biodiversity itself will risk great consequences with a higher probability of extinction for those species (animals and plants) unable to adapt to the rapidity of changes under way. 392 Final Document 3.1 Urgent action It is, therefore, a dramatic change, that is already starting to deeply modify the lives of billions of human beings, of present and future generations. In such conditions the precautionary principle – fundamental for environmental ethics – calls for a prompt action aimed at limiting the changes before they get out of control causing devastating consequences. Given current knowledge, no other solution is available without including a drastic reduction of climatealtering gas emissions. The aim is to stabilize CO2 concentration and that of other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, stopping their growth. Strong efforts in such direction are necessary on a technicalscientific research level as well as on a wider political-economic action level. In the first place, a strong mitigation strategy is necessary in order to reduce today and tomorrow emissions in the atmosphere and increase the greenhouse gases absorption capacity of the natural environment (the so-called sinks, such as forests and farmlands). Likewise, the adoption of adaptation policies in order to manage, in the best possible way, all the negative consequences – on people, natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems – of climatic changes on the way, must be strong as well. 3.2 Towards a wider political consensus The conclusions drawn by the Conference of Bali (December 2007) and the road map thereby approved in order to reach a new International legal agreement for Kyoto 2, highlight that the majority of countries now recognizes climate change as a serious common problem for the future of the planet. In Bali the International community has also expressed its conviction about the necessity of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50%, from 1990 levels, within 2050 in order to keep down the increase of temperature within 2° centigrade. It is clear then the awareness of the urgency to redirect the actual development system with a deep revision of dominant economic systems and a strong transformation of the energy system in order to gradually reduce the role of fossil fuels in favour of renewable energy and at the same time increasing energy efficiency. Several studies outline that, even from an economic point of view, is far more convenient to act now rather than have to deal, in a few years, with the growing costs caused by the “climatic chaos”. 393 Towards a New Global Responsibility 3.3 Improving ecoefficient technology Such action may utilize increasingly available efficient technology that will enable strong reduction of climate-altering gases. Reductions of 20-85% of CO2 and other greenhouse gases emissions are today already possible in the energy efficiency sector alone. All the more so, one can look with confidence to human creativity, which from now on is likely to add to present knowledge new scientific technical and cultural opportunities and will help to give new answers to the problem ahead. 3.4 Multilevel action A clear and shared global action has, therefore, the realistic possibility to start a positive process in order to operate in a more interactive way on multiple government levels (international, continental, national, local-regional), on multi-sectors (economic, social, environmental, cultural) and on different players (institutions, enterprises, citizens). It will, therefore, be possible to proceed in the direction of modifying the prevalent economic and social system through coordination between local and global action and the involvement of active community actors. A real opportunity is at hand allowing us to build a sustainable society, with the ability of maintaining itself through time, ensuring a future also to generations to come. 3.5 A cultural and educational challenge First of all, our societies face a cultural challenge, which implies taking charge of a stronger social and environmental responsibility, keeping in mind that climate change is considered of the most important problems by the public opinion of the Western Countries. Therefore, citizens’ direct experience will be able to steer attitudes and opinions and from there influence behaviours. There is a general call for everybody to take a concrete responsibility on these issues in organization and production modalities, behaviours and lifestyles, to ensure a sustainable future. In this field it is imperative to implement a broad range of educational actions, capable of promoting a widespread awareness on an issue that puts at stake the future of the whole humanity and, already today, even the daily survival for many people. 394 Final Document 3.6 Beyond Kyoto: sharing responsibility according to justice A decisive global political initiative is also necessary because climate change is a global phenomenon. Its containment requires a joint action by the International community, which goes beyond the principal on which the Kyoto Protocol is based. There is a need to behave following the principle of responsibility – common but also differentiated – for the common good of climatic stability. In the first place, long-term industrialized countries are called to a decisive reduction of their emissions. That alone, however, will not determine an overall reduction, if the rapid and often unsustainable development in emerging countries continues to cause increasing production and consumption of fossil fuels. The involvement of the latter becomes therefore essential in negotiations of the new International legal agreement, which will regulate the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol (Kyoto 2) starting from 2012. It will be achieved only on the basis of clear equity criteria regarding cost allocation for policies of mitigation and adjustment. This means to understand how to share the costs of a global socioeconomic transformation, which – as highlighted also in the 2006 Stern Report – in the middle-term will be beneficial to those who will achieve it, but in a short-term shows relevant costs. Therefore it’s not surprising that those who have been called to sustain these costs have a variety of positions concerning who has to support them; we feel, however, that it may be possible to offer significant ethical indications for such a debate. We will do so considering some limitations of the perspective indicated by the Kyoto Protocol, which, however, attests the attention of the international community on climate change. 4. Two limitations of the Kyoto Protocol One direction in which it needs to be overcome is about the criteria for emissions reduction: a proportional criteria such as that the Protocol proposes may be too binding for those countries which historically have had lower emission levels. From an ethical point of view there is no excuse for such a demand, that assumes for those countries with high emission levels, a problematic “acquired right of use” regarding the atmosphere, completely failing to recognize its nature as a public good. On the other hand, the Kyoto Protocol with regard to the limitation of emissions has a limited group of countries bear the costs; excluded from this group remain some countries who significantly increase the emissions. It’s not enough to refer to the principle: “Who pollutes pays” to motivate restrictions imposed only to countries his395 Towards a New Global Responsibility torically industrialized: the problem today must be faced by all humanity and countries. Furthermore, such perspective would be unacceptable for industrialized countries, bound to expensive efforts, with the risk of seeing them nullified by a drastic increase of emissions by other countries. The commitments taken even unilaterally, for instance by the European Union, have the capacity to prompt positive action among all involved players, with the perspective of adopting shared undertakings. 4.1 An agreement in the name of equity A more significant approach should refer to an equal right of the use of the atmosphere, which would determine for each country proportional emissions on the basis of their population. It must not be forgotten that even countries like China or India, often mentioned for the rapid growth of their emissions, still maintain a lower per capita level of emission compared to countries of historical industrialization. In such context the right to an equal use of the atmosphere – certainly not easy to found from an ethical point of view – seems able to offer a significant justice criterion. This poses strong requirements to industrialized countries, who are called to a deep rethinking of their development model, but specifies bounds – even if limited – also for the others. It isn’t necessary to think at such an approach in rigid terms: a mediation approach - significantly ethical and practicable – requires that equal per capita emissions are an objective to be reached progressively through a gradual convergence, starting from present levels, which results less costly for industrialized countries. To make such approach compatible with authentic justice criteria there is a need to integrate it with effective mechanisms supporting a low cost spreading, also in developing countries, of low emission technology. It would, therefore, be possible for such countries to realize a better quality of life which is absolutely necessary, combining social and economic development with quality of the environment. On the other hand, for the industrialized countries, where such technologies have historically been developed, their low cost proliferation would be the price to pay for the postponement of reduction in costs for emissions tied to the gradual convergence in emission levels. 5. A new global responsibility It isn’t easy to match the need for effectiveness, with regard to the GHGs reduction, with the need for justice. Responsibility, wisdom 396 Final Document and flexibility of all players involved are required in the belief that ineffective decisions in this field (or worse, the incapacity of taking common decisions) have too high of a price for the human family and particularly for its more vulnerable members. In particular, it’s important to be able to face the present financial and economic crisis with some foresight ability, without forgetting the ecological needs and without making them an alibi in putting off the necessary measures in front of the alarming signs as, unfortunately, happened for the financial crisis itself. Recommendations We recommend: x x x x x x x The maintenance and realization, on the part of all actors involved, of the Kyoto Protocol objectives, which is the first expression of the International community will in contrasting the climate change; The reinforcement and acceleration of the international negotiation processes aimed at defining a set of rules, characterized by cost-sharing criteria strongly justice-oriented, for the period following the Kyoto Protocol time-span; The definition of significant, timely and effective aims in order to reduce emissions (i.e. – by at least 50% by 2050 from 1990 levels), identified through indications of intermediate deadlines for the diverse actors involved, according to the perspective indicated by the European Union. The improvement of research in the field of energy efficiency aimed at the reduction of emissions and the diffusion of relative technology; for developing countries, research may be aided by a specific fund, particularly sponsored by countries with high per capita emission levels. The reduction of greenhouse gas concentration through forest preservation and sustainable management, which for developing countries will be supported by international funds. International integrated policies of adaptation to climate change, aimed at the limitation of emissions, particularly for vulnerable subjects and areas and/or for those less equipped with the necessary resources to face it. A concrete attention on the part of the whole International community towards environmental refugees issues and climate change victims. 397 Towards a New Global Responsibility 398 Printed: June 2010 by C.L.E.U.P. “Coop. Libraria Editrice Università di Padova” via G. 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