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Download Sharing Global CO 2 Emission Reductions Among One Billion High
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One Billion High Emitters: A New Approach for Sharing Global CO2 Emission Reductions Shoibal Chakravarty (PEI), Ananth Chikkatur (Harvard), Heleen de Coninck (ECN), Steve Pacala (PEI), Robert Socolow (PEI), Massimo Tavoni (FEEM) Contact: [email protected] Background • United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – “Common but differentiated responsibilities” – Two-tier world: Annex I (industrialised countries) and non-Annex I (rest of the world) – Kyoto Protocol builds on this • Ignores emission inequality within nations • Guiding principle: agreement between sovereign states What is a fair distribution of emission allowances among countries? • Based on a negotiated outcome? (Kyoto) • Based on cumulative historical contribution to climate change? • Or perhaps on future contribution to the climate problem? • Based on the reduction potentials (geography, climate)? • Based on national per capita greenhouse gas emissions? (Contraction and convergence) • Based on the emissions of the individuals in a country? What this paper does (and does not do) It does: – Treat two individuals with the same emissions equally, regardless of their nationality – Provide a simple but flexible ordering principle on which to base emission allocation to countries: both developed and developing It does not: – Prescribe specific policy options – Does not include land use emissions and non-CO2 gases Per-capita energy related CO2 emissions (2005) Source: IEA WEO 2007 Per-capita energy related CO2 emissions (2030) Source: IEA WEO 2007 National responsibilities based on individual emissions • Focus on the CO2 emissions of individual • Treat every individual the same, no matter in which country they live • Calculate the individual emissions cap: an appropriate emission allowance of any individual in the world • Find the nation’s cap: Add up the individual allowances for each citizen in a country Individuals ranked by annual emissions 8 Determine the globally applicable individual emissions cap Individual Emissions Cap 9 Some people exceed the individual emissions cap Individual Emissions Cap 10 Add the capped emissions of the citizens to determine the national target + Individual Emissions Cap + + + + + Required = Reductions = National Emissions Target 11 Use income distribution data to arrive at individual carbon distributions Apply Country CO2 intensity Rank all people in the world, highest to lowest emission-wise 75% 50% Choose a global target: 30 GtCO2 in 2030 Total emissions: 43 GtCO2 Choose a global target: 30 GtCO2 in 2030 Reduction: 13 GtCO2 Target 30 GtCO2 = 10.8 tCO2/person/yr Other global targets? 2003: 26 GtCO2 2030: 43 GtCO2 13 Gt 30 Gt 2030 Regional emissions in 2030 China Rest of world Rest of OECD 30 Gt global cap, 10.8 t individual cap 30 Gt global cap, 10.8 individual cap U.S. For a 30 GtCO2 global cap in 2030, similar population on which targets are based for four groupings Regional targets change with different global targets in 2030 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 USA OECD Europe 1990 (21.2 Gt) China 2003 (25.5 Gt) India 2030 BAU (43Gt) Middle East 35 Gt Russia 30 Gt 25 Gt Africa 20 Gt Headroom for the poor? • Most allocation schemes introduce fairness through a per capita emission convergence component • This allocation scheme introduces fairness through treating every individual the same • However, is it fair if the very poor remain very poor? • Allow the 2.7 billion people at < 1 tCO2/yr to grow • What does 1 tCO2/person/yr mean – 800 kWh coal-fired power; 65km of driving; 14 kg LPG/month – X 2 for indirect emissions Combine global-emissions cap and individual-emissions floor “30P” in 2030: 30 GtCO2 global emissions cap plus 1 tCO2 floor on individual emissions Individual cap: without floor: 10.8 t CO2 with floor: 9.6 t CO2 1 Regional targets, with the 1tCO2 floor, for different global targets 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 USA OECD Europe 1990 (21.2 Gt) China 2003 (25.5 Gt) India 2030 BAU (43Gt) Middle East 35 Gt Russia 30 Gt 25 Gt Africa 20 Gt Conclusion • It is possible to arrive at national caps based on incomebased individual emissions • Only an allocation mechanism: flexibility on policy instrument • Global cap of 30 GtCO2 in 2030 results in about 1 billion people having to reduce emissions • The need of the poorest 2.7 billion people to emit more can be accommodated (but also uncertainty whether the poor will be spared) What’s missing and how do we incorporate it ? • CO2 from land use and non-CO2 gases • Historical emissions: lifetime emissions, link to demographic statistics • Strong levels of convergence • Account for factors other than carbon intensity, e.g. geographical circumstances, climate, population density