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Vulnerability of Maldives Islands to Climate
Change and Extreme Weather Events: A
Study on Perceptions, Impacts & Adaptations
by
Miruza Mohamed
Examination Committee:
• Dr. Ranjith Perera (Chairperson)
• Dr. Vilas Vitivattananon
• Prof. Sivanappan Kumar
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CLIMATE CHANGE & ITS IMPACTS
Why Small Islands & in Particular Maldives?
 Small Islands - Amongst the most vulnerable to
climate change and its consequences
 Maldives - Amongst the four countries
(worldwide) comprised entirely of low lying
atolls
 Geophysical nature- small (235sqkm of land
area, 96% less than 1 sqkm), low lying (80%
land area less than 1 meter above MSL, 42% of
the population & all housing structures within
100m of the coastline) unconsolidated
islands
 Import-dependent and a LDC
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Rationale of the Study
Many studies on SLR, less
on Climate
on extreme weather , its
Change, Why
impacts & Adaptation.
Extreme Weather Already experiencing the
Events
impacts
 Why concentrate
 Why specifically
on RUC & why
HOUSEHOLD
LEVEL
Solution to unconsolidated
nature = RUC/Safer Islands
with high population and
developed infrastructure
high density settlements
exposure of more
people in a single location
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Research Questions & Objectives
What are the climatic
Threats to urban settlements
in the selected Regional
Urban Centres (RUC) and in
what ways have these
threats affected RUCs?
How have households of
these regional centres
responded to the impacts of
climate induced events?
How are climate change
and its effects perceived by
the households of these
urban centres?
To Understand and describe
the climatic threats and its impacts
to the urban settlements of the
Selected RUCs
To identify climate change
impacts on households and to
analyze the adaptation actions
taken in addressing the climate
variability and extreme weather
events
To determine the public
perceptions of and knowledge
of climate change to determine
the consciousness of the general
public
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Observed evidence and projections
for climate change
 Observed SLR in Maldives – long term trend
1.7mm/yr – towards the upper end of estimated
range of global SLR over the past century &
above the central estimate rate- 1.5mm/yr
 Increasing the frequency and intensify of
extreme weather events in Maldives:
flooding in more than 90 inhabited islands
over the last 6 years at least one
37 islands flooded regularly
In 2004, one event alone caused flooding in
71 inhabited islands, in 2007, one event alone
affected 60 islands in 16 atolls
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Adaptation to Climate Change
 Adaptation - an important option for reducing
vulnerability to long term climate change impacts
 Adaptive Capacity - the ability of a system to
adjust to climate change (including climate
variability and extremes) to moderate potential
damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or
to cope with the consequences (IPCC, 2001).
 Knowledge – a pre-requisite for adaptation.
“Formulation of adaptation measures requires
how to utilize and enhance local and
indigenous resilience practices and knowledge
possessed by local communities.”(Japan,
2007)
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Conceptual Framework
Global Climate Change
Slow on set changes
Sudden, Extreme Events
Impacts on Coastal
Areas/Small Islands
Perception/Knowledge
Adaptation to
What?
Adaptation
How does
Adaptation occur?
Who & What
Adapts?
What Type of
Adaptation?
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Selection of the study areas
 Urban regional cenres- impacts more if an event
strikes.
 Selected for Population Consolidation
Programme/Safer Island
 Most urbanized and high population concentration
 Importance in the context or urbanization-
growth centres
 Importance at the national scale
 Have 2 sea ports out of the total 3 in
Maldives, 2 airports out of the four airports,
Highest health & facilities (except for Male’)
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T
H
E
S
T
U
D
Y
A
R
E
A
S
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S. Hithadhoo
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HDH. KULHUDHUFFUSHI
Hdh. Kulhudhuffushi
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Methodological Framework
Inputs
Historical
Data
Document
Review
Household
Survey
Household
Survey
Stages & Outputs
Climate change
related events
Identification
(THREATS)
Related Impacts
Identification
Household Level
Perception on
local and global
climate issues
Inputs
Climate
Records
Document review,
Views from Local
people, His oral
impact Identification
Island Level
Relevant
Adaptation
Behaviour
Household
Survey
Household Level
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Vulnerability of Two Islands to
Climatic Variability
Hdh. Kulhudhuffushi
 Exposed to NE
monsoon generated
winds & storm
activities originating
from the cyclone
belt of Indian Ocean
–storm surges and
windstorm
S. Hithadhoo
 Most southern- so
exposed to wave
actions from both E
& W directions in
Indian ocean –
exposed to southwest
monsoon related
surges and long
distance swells
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Climatic Trends of two study areas
Annual Rainfall (mm)
3200
250
200
150
100
50
0
2700
2200
1700
1200
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
for Hithadhoo from 1978-2006
for Kulhudhufushi from 1992-2006
Linear (for Hithadhoo from 1978-2006)
2002
2005
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
Septem…
October
Novemb…
Decemb…
Mean monthly rainfall
Hdh. Hanimaadhoo
S. Gan
Linear (for Kulhudhufushi from 1992-2006)
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Climatic Trends of two study areas contd…
Maximum Temperature (°C)
31.4
31.2
31
30.8
30.6
30.4
30.2
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1986
1991
1996
2001
Hdh. Kulhudhufushi
S. Hithadhoo
Linear (Hdh. Kulhudhufushi)
Linear (S. Hithadhoo)
2006
Max- 31.3 °C
+0.9 °C/year N, and +0.04 °C/year S
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Climatic Trends of two study areas contd…
North Meterological Station, Hanimaadhoo
Sea level (mm)
2250
2200
2150
2100
2050
2000
1950
1900
Jun-90
Nov-91
Mar-93
Aug-94
Dec-95
Apr-97
Sep-98
Jan-00
Jun-01
South Meterological Station, Gan
Sea level (mm)
1750
1700
1650
1600
1550
1500
1450
Aug-87
May-90
Jan-93
Oct-95
Jul-98
Apr-01
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Most Common Events & Impacts at Island
Level
Heavy rainfall
Wind storm
Swell surges
Flooding, damage to
plants and household
appliances
Blowing off roofs and
damage to plants
Flooding & damage to
plants
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Determinants of Adaptive capacity and
Social Vulnerability
Gender of the respondents- Females were more
vulnerable than males (Dwyer et al. 2004).
Household Size- large households more vulnerable
than small householdsHousehold Income &Types of Employment -important
for determining the vulnerability, coping capacity and
recovery after an impact
Educational Level – educated populations are important
in reducing the vulnerability
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Household Perceptions of Local weather
patterns
HDH. Kulhudhuffushi
S. Hithadhoo
91.2% believed that
local weather pattern is
changing
65.5% believed that
temperature has increased
-None believed that
temperature has
decreased
86.6% believed that local
weather pattern is
changing
55.0% from S. Hithadhoo
Other observations include that rain & wind episodes
are more stormy, Rain in unexpected times, Increase
in storm surges, flooding and disasters, etc
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Household Perceptions of and knowledge of
Global Climate Change (Causes)
HDH. Kulhudhuffushi
S. Hithadhoo
91.0% have heard about
climate change
42% knowledgeable on
causes
51% identified GHGs
emission
95% believed that local
climate is changing
44% knowledgeable on
causes
43% identified GHGs
emission
Respondents education attainment with their
knowledge of causes of climate change
showed a relationship so does with their types
of occupation
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Household Perceptions of and knowledge of
Global Climate Change (Causes) contd…
Causes of Climate Change
Increase in population
Sand Mining
0%
2%
1%
4%
Waste Disposal
2%
Electricity consumption
1%
Transportation Fuel
8%
7%
5%
11%
Deforestation
25%
43%
43%
GHG
Hithadhoo
51%
Kulhudhufushi
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Household Perceptions of and knowledge of
Global Climate Change (Impacts)
HDH. Kulhudhuffushi
S. Hithadhoo
Comparatively respondents were
more aware on impacts of
climate change
77% knowledgeable on impacts
64%
knowledgeable
on impacts
Respondents education attainment with their knowledge
on impacts of climate change showed no relationship
however, with types of occupation there appeared a
relationship
Housewives and unemployed people are more
knowledgeable on impacts than causes of climate change
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Household Perceptions of and knowledge of
Global Climate Change (Impacts) contd…
Impacts of Climate Change
Sea Level rise
21%
7%
Degree of Icemelting
24%
13%
19%
17%
Ozone Layer depletion
Magnitude and Extent of… 0% 3%
Impacts on weather patterns
22%
25%
2%
Species extinction and/or… 1%
Impacts on Ssmall Islands…
Impacts on natural…
Impacts on human health
S. Hithadhoo
9%
11%
9%
8%
6%
5%
HDH. Kulhudhufushi
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Household Perceptions of and knowledge of
Global Climate Change (gender)
An important indicator for assessing the vulnerability
Poverty – both a cause of vulnerability and a
consequence of hazard impacts
linked with female
Respondents
gender
North
(N= 113)
South (N= 149)
Cause
Impact
Cause
Impact
Female
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38.7%
57
76.0%
41
39.0%
63
60.0%
Male
17
50.0%
27
79.4%
21
56.8%
28
75.7%
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Household Impacts & Adaptive Behaviour
HDH. Kulhudhuffushi
S. Hithadhoo
20.4% households
affected (heavy rainfall,
high temperature,
Windstorm, Swell Surges
& thunderstorm
31.5% household (heavy
rainfall, high temperature,
Windstorm &
thunderstorm
Adaptation
actions
North
South
Affected Not
Affected Not
affected
affected
Taken Adaptation
actions
69.6%
12.2%
38.3%
13.7%
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Individually Perceived ability
Most on ‘stopping cutting down trees (57.5%
Kulhudhuffushi & 48.3% in S. Hithadhoo)
Most importantly respondent’s responses on
‘what they can do as an individual to alleviate
the problem of climate change’ was somehow
related to the environmental problems existing in
their islands
As, more responses from Hdh as ‘use proper
ways to dispose waste’ and ‘stop sand mining’ in
Hithadhoo shows this.
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Conclusions
Change in climate
patterns, exposed
to swell surges,
windstorm, etc
Global Climate Change
Sudden, Extreme Events
Impacts
Perception/Knowledge
• Local Weather
Patterns
• Causes &
Impacts of
Climate Change
Adaptation
Who & What
Adapts?
Due to, heavy rainfall,
swell surges, high
temperature and
thunderstorm,
windstorm
How does
Adaptation occur?
Adaptation to
What?
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Contributions
 Findings of this research is expected to provide
information to
 MEEW, contributing climate change related events in
the islands
 Overall, this research could be extended to other
regional urban centres
 MOE- knowledge on climate change issues
 MPND, Safer island Programme, Pop. Cos. Programe
 To others researches based on these islands, as this
research explored various year’s information on
events
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Policy Implications
 While these centres are developed as safer
islands and regional hubs, the impacts on
households should be integrated when developing
further infrastructure + building codes
 NAPA should include adaptation actions by
households based on their impacts
 Different determinants of adaptive capacity
should be included in NAPA
 Policies towards strengthening awareness, should
include specific climate change issues, their
views.
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Recommendations for further studies
 Should extend to other regional urban centres
 Should research on how people acquire climate
change knowledge.
 Flooding was one of the many impacts, thus,
Ministry of Health should consider conducting a
survey on health impacts of climate change on
households
 Socio-economic impacts and costs involved in
impacts as well adaptation actions would be
useful to determine the economic effects
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