Download Addressing the Leadership Challenge of Climate Change

Addressing the Leadership Challenge of Climate Change
United Nations Headquarters, New York, 24 September 2007
Fact Sheet
Increased warming: Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the warmest years in global surface
temperature since
1850. The rate of warming averaged over the last 50 years is nearly twice that for the last 100 years.
The average global
temperature went up by about 0.74°C during the 20th Century with the warming affecting land more
than ocean areas.
There is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: Carbon dioxide is the dominant contributor to
current climate change
and its atmospheric concentration has increased from a pre-industrial value of 278 parts-per million
(ppm) to 379 in
2005.
More water, but not everywhere: More precipitation has been observed in the eastern parts of North
and South America,
northern Europe and northern and central Asia in recent decades. But the Sahel, the Mediterranean,
southern Africa
and parts of southern Asia have experienced drying. More intense and longer droughts have been
observed over wider
areas since the 1970s.
Sea level is rising: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is highly confident that the rate
of observed sea level
rise increased from the 19th to 20th century, and the total 20th century rise is estimated to be 0.17
metre. Geological observations
indicate that sea level rise over the previous 2,000 years was far less. The average temperature of
the global
ocean has increased to depths of at least 3,000 metres.
Less snow cover: Snow cover is decreasing in most regions, particularly in spring. The maximum
extent of frozen ground
in the winter/spring season has decreased by about 7 per cent in the Northern Hemisphere since
1900, and on average
rivers that freeze do so some 5.8 days later than a century ago and their ice breaks up 6.5 days
earlier.
Glaciers are melting: Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined, on average, in both
hemispheres, and have
contributed to sea level rise by 0.77 millimetres a year from 1993 to 2003. Shrinkage of the ice
sheets of Greenland and
Antarctica have contributed to a sea level rise of 0.4 millimetres a year between 1993 and 2003.
Arctic is warming: Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in
the past 100 years.
Satellite data since 1978 show that the average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 per cent per
decade.
New Projections Indicate Faster Warming…
Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above the current rates would cause further warming and
induce many
changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than
those observed during
the 20th century.
The degree of warming depends on the degree of emissions: If carbon dioxide concentrations were
stabilized at 550 ppm
— double the pre-industrial levels — the average warming expected would likely be in the range of 24.5°C, with the
best estimate of 3°C, or 5.4°F. A warming of 0.2°C per decade is expected for each of the next two
decades for a range
of scenarios that do not include deliberate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
Other greenhouse gases contribute to warming and if their combined effect were equivalent to a
carbon dioxide level
of 650 ppm, the global climate would “likely” warm by 3.6°C, while a level of 750 ppm would produce
warming of 4.3°C.
Projections depend on factors such as economic growth, population, new technologies and other
factors.
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Climate Change at a Glance
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...and Greater Consequences
Warmer global temperatures are already causing profound changes in many of the earth’s natural
systems. Approximately
20-30 per cent of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of
extinction if increases
in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5°C.
A temperature increase of 3°C during this century would have largely negative consequences for
biodiversity ecosystems
that produce essential goods and services, such as water and food supply.
As a result of warmer temperatures, springtime events are occurring earlier, such as increased runoff and peak discharge
in many glacier- and snow-fed rivers, “greening” of vegetation and migration and egg-laying by birds.
More
animal and plant species have also been observed shifting toward higher latitudes.
More precipitation in the high latitudes: Increases in precipitation are very likely in the high latitudes
while decreases
are likely in most subtropical land regions.
Model based estimates for sea-level rise due to ocean expansion and glacier melt by the end of the
century (compared
to 1989-1999 levels) have narrowed from previous assessments to 18-58 cm. However, larger values
cannot be ruled out
if recently observed movements of ice sheets were to increase as temperature rises.
Contraction of the Greenland ice sheet is projected to contribute to sea level rise into the 22nd
century and the ice sheet
could face complete elimination if global average warming of 1.9-4.6°C is maintained for a
millennium. In that case, sea
level would rise by up to 7 metres.
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Addressing the Leadership Challenge of Climate Change
United Nations Headquarters, New York, 24 September 2007
Fact Sheet
Climate change refers to a change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere
and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable
time periods.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Quick facts:
A natural blanket of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere keeps the planet warm enough for life as
we know it
— at a comfortable15°C today.
Human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases have made the blanket thicker, trapping heat and
leading to a
global warming.
Fossil fuels are the single biggest source of human-generated greenhouse gas emissions.
The Earth’s average temperature seems to have been remarkably stable for the past 10,000 years,
varying by less than
1°C, allowing human civilization to thrive at what is today a comfortable 15°C. But the very success
of our civilization
risks disrupting the climate that has served us so well until now.
The “blanket” of greenhouse gases that occurs naturally in the troposphere — representing less than
one per cent of
the entire atmosphere — serves the vital function of regulating the planet’s climate. When solar
energy in the form of visible
light strikes the Earth, it warms the surface. Being much cooler than the sun, the Earth emits this
energy back out to
space in the form of infrared, or thermal, radiation. Greenhouse gases block the infrared radiation
from escaping directly
into space. The resulting “natural greenhouse effect” keeps the planet some 30oC warmer than it
would otherwise be,
which is essential for life as we know it.
The problem we now face is that since the start of the industrial revolution some 250 years ago our
emissions of greenhouse
gases have been making this blanket thicker at an unprecedented speed. This has caused the most
dramatic
change in the atmosphere’s composition for at least 650,000 years. Unless we make significant
efforts to reduce our
emissions of greenhouse gases, the global climate will continue to warm rapidly over the coming
decades and beyond.
The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
The reason these “artificial” emissions are such a problem is that, in the long term, the Earth must
get rid of energy at the
same rate at which it receives energy from the sun. Since a thicker blanket of greenhouse gases
helps to reduce energy
loss to space, the climate system must adjust somehow to restore the balance between incoming
and outgoing energy.
The result is known as the “enhanced greenhouse effect”.
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The Causes of Climate Change
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The climate adjusts to the thicker blanket of greenhouse gases in large part through a “global
warming” of the Earth’s
surface and lower atmosphere. This rise in temperature is accompanied by other changes, for
example in cloud cover
and wind patterns. Some of these changes may enhance the warming further (positive feedbacks),
while others may
counteract it (negative feedbacks). These various interactions complicate scientists’ efforts to
determine precisely how
the climate will change over the decades to come.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Fossil fuels formed by long-dead plants and animals are the single biggest source of humanity’s
greenhouse gas emissions.
Burning coal, oil and natural gas releases billions of tons of carbon every year that would otherwise
have remained
hidden in the Earth’s crust, as well as large amounts of methane and nitrous oxide. More carbon
dioxide is
released when trees are cut down and not replaced.
Meanwhile, massive herds of livestock emit methane, as do rice farms and waste dumps. The use of
fertilizers produces
nitrous oxide. Long-lived gases such as CFCs, HFCs and PFCs, used in air conditioning and
refrigeration, are manufactured
by industry and eventually enter the atmosphere. Many of these greenhouse gas-emitting activities
are now essential
to the global economy and form a fundamental part of modern life.
Assessing the Science: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The United Nations, through the United Nations Environment Programme and the World
Meteorological Organization,
established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 to investigate and
analyze the best published
science on the issue. Since 1990 the IPCC has produced authoritative reports every five or six years
assessing
the state of the science through observations and projections of future trends.
The IPCC does not conduct new research, but rather, its mandate is to make policy-relevant
assessments of the existing
worldwide literature on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of climate change. The
IPCC reports
draw on the work of thousands of experts from all regions of the world.
The Fourth Assessment Report is coming out during 2007, in four volumes, each prepared by a
separate working
group.
In preparing the reports, drafts are circulated to specialists with significant expertise and publications
in the field.
Their comments go back to the IPCC authors who in turn prepare a second review to governments
and to all authors
and expert reviewers. Governments and expert reviewers can provide comments restricted to the
accuracy and completeness
of the scientific/technical/socio-economic content and the overall balance of the drafts. The final
document
reflects differing views that are supported either scientifically or technically.
Each report has a Summary for Policymakers, approved line by line by the government delegations
of IPCC member
countries during a plenary session of the Working Group who produced it. Lead authors of the report
are present,
ready to explain the scientific facts supporting the statements contained in the Summary. Changes
can only be made
if there is agreement with the lead authors, to make sure that they are consistent with the underlying
scientific and
technical assessment. The Summary represents the point of agreement on the report’s key findings:
participating governments
acknowledge that there is enough scientific evidence worldwide to support the document’s
statements.
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Addressing the Leadership Challenge of Climate Change
United Nations Headquarters, New York, 24 September 2007
Fact Sheet
Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many
natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly
temperature increases.
“Climate Change 2007,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Quick facts:
The poorest communities are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.
The average global sea level is projected to rise by 28-58 cm due to ocean expansion and glacier
melt by the end
of the 21st century (compared to 1989-1999 levels).
20-30 per cent of species are likely to face an increased risk of extinction.
There will be greater heat waves, new wind patterns, worsening drought in some regions, heavier
precipitation
in others.
Higher Temperatures, More Risk
In all regions of the world, the faster temperatures rise, the greater the risk of damage. The climate
does not respond
immediately to emissions, which can last for years or decades in the atmosphere. And because of
the delaying effect of
the oceans – which absorb and eventually release heat more slowly than the atmosphere – surface
temperatures do not
immediately respond to greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, climate change will continue for
hundreds of years after
atmospheric concentrations have stabilized.
Adverse Changes in the Hydrological Cycle
Rising temperatures are already accelerating the hydrological cycle. A warmer atmosphere holds
more moisture, becomes
less stable and produces more precipitation, particularly in the form of heavy rain bursts. Greater
heat also
speeds up evaporation. The net effect of these changes in the cycling of water will be a decline in the
quantity and
quality of freshwater supplies in all major regions. Meanwhile, wind patterns and storm tracks are
likely to change. The
intensity (but not the frequency) of tropical cyclones are expected to increase, with larger peak wind
speeds and heavier
rains.
Increased Health Risks
Climate change will increasingly alter the distribution of malarial mosquitoes and other carriers of
infectious diseases
affect the seasonal distribution of some allergy-causing pollen and increase the risks of heat waves.
On the other hand,
there should be fewer deaths due to the cold.
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The Consequences for the Future
Threats to Biodiversity
Wildlife and biological diversity – already threatened by habitat destruction and other humangenerated stresses – will
face new challenges from climate change. Many ecosystems are already responding to higher
temperatures by advancing
towards the poles and up mountainsides. Some species will not survive the transition, and 20-30 per
cent of species
are likely to face an increased risk of extinction. The most vulnerable ecosystems include coral reefs,
boreal (sub-arctic)
forests, mountain habitats and those dependent on a Mediterranean climate.
Rising Sea Level
The best estimate for how much further the sea level with rise due to ocean expansion and glacier
melt by the end of the
21st century (compared to 1989-1999 levels) is 28-58 cm. This will worsen coastal flooding and
erosion.
Larger sea-level increases of up to 1 metre by 2100 cannot be ruled out if ice sheets continue to melt
as temperature
rises. There is now evidence that the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are indeed slowly losing
mass and contributing
to sea level rise. About 125,000 years ago, when the polar regions were significantly warmer for an
extended period
than at present, melting polar ice caused the sea level to rise by 4 to 6 metres. Sea-level rise has
substantial inertia and
will continue for many centuries.
The oceans will also experience higher temperatures, which have implications for sea life. Over the
past four decades,
for example, North Atlantic plankton have migrated pole-ward by 10 degrees of latitude. Similarly, the
acidification of
the oceans as they absorb more carbon dioxide will impair the ability of corals, marine snails and
other species to form
their shells or skeletons.
Hitting the Most Vulnerable
The poorest communities will be the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as they have
fewer resources to
invest in preventing and mitigating the effects of climate change. Some of the most at-risk people
include subsistence
farmers, indigenous peoples and coastal populations.
Regional Impacts
It is more difficult to anticipate how climate change will evolve at the regional than at the global level.
Nevertheless, enormous
strides have been made in recent years, allowing scientists to conclude that:
Africa — Very vulnerable to climate change and climate variability due to endemic poverty, weak
institutions, and complex
disasters and conflicts. Drought has spread and intensified since the 1970s, and the Sahel and
southern Africa
have already become drier during the 20th century. Water supplies and agricultural production will
likely be severely
compromised. Yields in some countries could drop by as much as 50 per cent by 2020, and some
large regions of marginal
agriculture are likely to be forced out of production. Forests, grasslands and other natural
ecosystems are already
changing, particularly in southern Africa. By the 2080s, the amount of arid and semi-arid land in
Africa will likely increase
by 5-8 per cent.
Antarctica — This continent has proven more difficult to understand and predict. With the exception
of the rapidly
warming Antarctic Peninsula, both temperatures and snowfall have remained relatively constant for
the continent as
a whole over the past 50 years. Because this frozen continent contains almost 90 per cent of the
planet’s freshwater,
researchers are watching carefully for any signs that its glaciers and ice sheets may be melting.
The Arctic — Average temperatures in the Arctic have increased almost twice as fast as the global
average over the
past 100 years. The average extent of Arctic sea ice has been shrinking by 2.7 per cent per decade
and large areas of the
Arctic Ocean could lose year-round ice cover by the end of the 21st century if human emissions
reach the higher end of
current estimates. The Arctic is also particularly important because changes there have important
global implications.
For example, as ice and snow melts, the Earth’s albedo (reflectivity) is decreased, trapping heat that
would otherwise be
reflected and warming the earth’s surface even further.
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Asia — More than a billion people could be affected by a decline in the availability of freshwater,
particularly in large
river basins, by 2050. Glacier melt in the Himalayas, which is projected to increase flooding and rock
avalanches, will
affect water resources in the next two to three decades. As glaciers recede, river flows will decrease.
Coastal areas,
especially heavily populated mega-delta regions, will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding
from the sea and, in
some cases, from river flooding.
Australia and New Zealand — Increasing stress on water supplies and agriculture, changing natural
ecosystems, less
seasonal snow cover and shrinking glaciers. Over the past few decades there have been more heat
waves, fewer frosts
and more rain in north-west Australia and south-west New Zealand; less rain in southern and eastern
Australia and
north-eastern New Zealand; and an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts. The climate of
the 21st century is
virtually certain to be warmer with more frequent and intense heat waves, fires, floods, landslides,
droughts and storm
surges.
Europe — Glaciers and permafrost are thawing, growing seasons are lengthening and weather
extremes – such as the
disastrous heat wave of 2003 – are more frequent. Researchers believe that Europe’s northern
regions will experience
warmer winters, greater precipitation, expanding forests and greater agricultural productivity.
Southern regions near
the Mediterranean will see hotter summers, less precipitation, more droughts, retreating forests and
reduced agricultural
productivity. Europe contains a great deal of low-lying coastland vulnerable to rises in sea-level, and
many plants,
reptiles, amphibians and other species are likely to become endangered by the end of the century.
Latin America — The tropical forests of eastern Amazonia and southern and central Mexico are
expected to be gradually
replaced by savannah. Parts of north-east Brazil and most of central and northern Mexico will
become more arid
due to a combination of climate change and human land management. By the 2050s, 50 per cent of
agricultural lands are
highly likely to be experiencing desertification and salinization.
North America — Climate change will further constrain water resources, already stretched by
growing demand from
agriculture, industry and cities. Rising temperatures will further diminish the mountain snow pack and
increase evaporation,
thus altering the seasonal availability of water. Lower water levels in the Great Lakes and major river
systems will
affect water quality, navigation, recreation and hydropower. Wildfire and insect outbreaks will
continue to intensify in
a warmer world with drier soils. Over the 21st century, pressure for species to shift north and to
higher elevations will
fundamentally rearrange North American ecosystems.
Small island states — Particularly vulnerable to climate change, their limited size makes them more
prone to natural
hazards and external shocks, in particular to rises in sea-level and threats to their freshwater
resources.
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Addressing the Leadership Challenge of Climate Change
United Nations Headquarters, New York, 24 September 2007
Fact Sheet
In the context of climate change, mitigation is a human intervention to reduce the
sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Quick facts:
Without additional action, emissions of the six main greenhouse gases are projected to rise by 25-90
per cent by
2030 compared to 2000.
With the right policies, the rise in the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be slowed
and ultimately
stabilized.
If global CO2 emissions peak by 2015 and fall to 50-85 per cent of 2000 levels by 2050, global mean
temperature
increases could be limited to 2-2.4°C above pre-industrial levels.
Without additional action by governments, emissions of the six main greenhouse gases - carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous
oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, PFCs and HFCs - are set to rise dramatically. Between 1970 and 2004,
emissions of these
gases increased by 70 per cent.
By adopting stronger climate change policies, governments could slow and reverse these emission
trends and ultimately
stabilize the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. For example, stabilizing greenhouse gas
levels at
445-490 ppm (parts per million) — the most ambitious target that was assessed – would require
global CO2 to peak by
2015 and to fall to 50-85 per cent of 2000 levels by 2050. This could limit global mean temperature
increases to 2-2.4°C
above pre-industrial levels.
Stabilizing greenhouse gases levels at 535-590 ppm would require global CO2 emissions to peak by
2010-2030 and return
to -30 per cent to +5 per cent of 2000 levels by around 2050. This could limit the temperature
increase to 2.8-3.2°C. If emissions
peak later, more warming can be expected. By way of comparison, the current (2005) level of
greenhouse gases
is about 379 ppm.
Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will determine to a large extent the long-term
global mean temperature
increase and the corresponding climate change impacts that can be avoided. Properly designed
climate change
policies can be part and parcel of sustainable development and the IPCC’s findings confirm that
sustainable development
paths can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reduce vulnerability to climate change.
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Reducing the Emissions that Cause Climate
Change
Reducing Emissions Requires Help from all Sectors of the Economy
There is no single solution to climate change — The IPCC concludes that no single economically and
technologically
feasible solution would, on its own, suffice for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from different
sectors. At the same
time, it is clear that coordinated action at the international level is needed to harness the full effect of
clean technologies
and energy efficiency.
Energy —US$ 20 trillion is expected to be invested in upgrading global energy infrastructure from
now until 2030 to meet
rising demand, which will grow by about 60 per cent in that time according to the International Energy
Agency. The
additional cost of altering these investments in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is
estimated to range from
negligible to an increase of 5-10 per cent. The way in which these energy needs are met will
determine whether climate
change will remain manageable. Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will determine
to a large extent
the long-term global mean temperature increase and the corresponding climate change impacts that
can be avoided.
The wide deployment of climate-friendly technologies is critical. Existing clean technologies need to
be
rapidly adopted by the private sector and deployed widely, including through technological
cooperation
between industrialised and developing countries. Addressing climate change will, however, require
continuous
improvement through innovation and the development of new technologies.
Cleaner technologies and energy efficiency can provide win-win solutions, allowing economic growth
and
the fight against climate change to proceed hand in hand. With the continued dominant role of fossil
fuels
in the global energy mix, energy efficiency, cleaner fossil fuel and carbon capture and storage
technologies
are needed to allow their continued use without jeopardising climate change objectives.
Renewable energy can help. According to UNEP and New Energy Finance (NEF), sustainable
energy investment
has increased markedly over the past couple of years, with wind, solar and biofuels attracting
the highest levels of investment. This reflects technology maturity, policy incentives and investor
appetite.
Investor appetite suggests that existing technology is ready for scale-up and that renewable energy
can
become a larger part of the energy mix without waiting for further technology development
To fully meet the mitigation challenge across the globe, such a scale-up needs to be promoted and
the
further diffusion of technologies needs to be supported, including through enhanced cooperation
between
industrialised and developing countries. For this to happen, governments need to further concretize
and
support a market-friendly, clear and predictable playing field for private investors.
Governments need to promote a range of energy options — These could include encouraging natural
gas
over more carbon-intensive fossil fuels as well as mature renewable energy technologies such as
large
hydro, biomass combustion and geothermal. Other renewable sources include solar assisted air
conditioning,
wave power and nanotechnology solar cells, although they all still require more technological or
commercial
development. Yet another option could be carbon capture and storage technology, which involves
capturing carbon dioxide before it can be emitted into the atmosphere, transporting it to a secure
location,
and isolating it from the atmosphere, for example by storing it in a geological formation.
Buildings — Approximately 30 per cent of the projected baseline emissions in the residential and
commercial sectors –
the highest rate amongst all sectors studied by the IPCC – could be reduced by 2030 with a net
economic benefit. Energy
consumption and embodied energy in buildings can be cut through greater use of existing
technologies such as passive
solar design, high-efficiency lighting and appliances, highly efficient ventilation and cooling systems,
solar water heaters,
insulation, highly-reflective building materials and multiple glazing. Government policies on appliance
standards
and building energy codes could further provide incentives and information for commercial action in
this area.
Transport — Technologies that could help reduce emissions range from direct injection turbocharged
diesels and improved
batteries for road vehicles to regenerative breaking and higher efficiency propulsion systems for
trains to blended
wing bodies and unducted turbofan propulsion systems for airplanes. Biofuels also have the potential
to replace a
substantial proportion of the petroleum that is currently being used by transport. Providing public
transport systems and
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promoting non-motorised transport can also reduce emissions. Management strategies for reducing
traffic congestion
and air pollution can also be effective in reducing private-vehicle travel.
Industry — The greatest potential for reducing industrial emissions is located in the energy-intensive
steel, cement, pulp
and paper industries and in the control of non-CO2 gases such as HFC-23 from the manufacturing of
HCFC-22, PFCs from
aluminium smelting and semiconductor processing, sulphur hexafluoride from use in electrical
switchgear and magnesium
processing, and methane and nitrous oxide from the chemical and food industries.
Agriculture — Sequestering carbon in the soil represents about 89 per cent of the mitigation potential
in this area.
Other options include improved management of crop and grazing lands (e.g. improved agronomic
practices, nutrient
use, tillage and residue management), restoration of organic soils that are drained for crop
production, and restoration
of degraded lands. Lower but still significant reductions are possible with improved water and rice
management; setasides,
land use change (e.g. converting cropland to grassland) and agro-forestry; and improved livestock
and manure
management.
Forests — Arresting today’s high levels of deforestation and planting new forests could considerably
reduce greenhouse
gas emissions at low costs. About 65 per cent of the total mitigation potential for forests lies in the
tropics and 50
per cent can be achieved by simply avoiding deforestation. In the longer term, the best way to
maintain or increase the
ability of forests to sequester carbon is through sustainable forest management, which also has
many social and environmental
benefits. A comprehensive approach to forest management can ensure an annual sustained yield of
timber,
fibre or energy that is compatible with adapting to climate change, maintaining biodiversity and
promoting sustainable
development.
Wastes — Post-consumer waste makes up almost 5 per cent of total global greenhouse gas
emissions. Technology can
directly reduce emissions by recovering gases emitted from landfills but also through improved
landfill practices and engineered
wastewater management. Controlled composting of organic waste, state-of-the-art incineration and
expanded
sanitation coverage can also help avoid generating these gases in the first place. It is estimated that
20-30 per cent of
projected emissions from waste for 2030 can be reduced at negative cost and 30-50 per cent at low
costs.
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Addressing the Leadership Challenge of Climate Change
United Nations Headquarters, New York, 24 September 2007
Fact Sheet
Adaptation is an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual
or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits
beneficial opportunities.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
Quick facts:
Early action to improve seasonal climate forecasts, food security, freshwater supplies, disaster and
emergency
response, famine early-warning systems and insurance coverage can minimize the damage from
climate
change.
Without adaptive efforts, a 2.5ºC increase in temperature is likely to result in a 0.5-2 per cent
decrease in gross
domestic product, with higher losses in most developing countries.
Humans have been adapting to changing climatic conditions for centuries. However, the climate
change that the world
is presently experiencing is occurring far more rapidly than anything the Earth has experienced in the
last 10,000 years.
Vulnerable countries, communities and ecosystems are already feeling the effects of climate change.
The risks associated
with the climate-related changes are real and are already happening in many systems and sectors
essential for
human livelihood, including water resources, food security and health. Developing countries are the
most vulnerable
to these risks. In the most vulnerable communities, the impacts of climate change pose a direct
threat to people’s very
survival. The devastating effects of extreme events, temperature increases and sea level rise will
worsen with consequences
for everyone, particularly the poor.
Coping with an uncertain future — Adaptation is a process through which societies make themselves
better able to
cope with an uncertain future. Adaptation options are many and range from technological options
such as increased
sea defenses or flood-proof houses on stilts, to behaviour change at the individual level, such as the
sparing use of
water in times of drought. Other adaptation strategies include early warning systems for extreme
events, improved risk
management, insurance options and biodiversity conservation to reduce the impacts of climate
change on people.
Affected countries must develop strategies to effectively adapt to the impact of climate change, now
and in coming
years. Because of this many developing countries have given adaptation action a high, even urgent,
priority. The international
community is identifying resources, tools and approaches to support this effort.
Sustainable development is vital — According to the IPCC, future vulnerability depends not only on
climate change but
also on the type of development that is pursued. Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability
and to be successful,
adaptation should be implemented in the context of national and international sustainable
development plans.
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Living with Climate Change
Early Action Needed
Taking early action can improve seasonal climate forecasts, food security, freshwater supplies,
disaster and emergency
response, famine early-warning systems and insurance coverage. These actions can minimize the
damage from future
climate change while generating many immediate practical benefits.
Ability to adapt — While adaptation to climate change is important to all countries, it is particularly
important to developing
countries, whose economies heavily depend on climate-vulnerable sectors such as agriculture, and
which have less
capacity to adapt than industrialized countries.
Averting economic loss — Without adaptive efforts, a 2.5ºC increase in temperature is likely to result
in a 0.5-2 per cent
decrease in gross domestic product, with higher losses in most developing countries. As an example,
Sierra Leone estimated
that the full protection of all its vulnerable shores will require an estimated amount of US$ 1,100
million, which
is about 17 per cent of its GDP. Making development projects more resilient to climate impacts is
expected to increase
project costs anywhere between 5 and 20 per cent.
Limited assistance so far for planning — Estimates show that only a small portion of official
development assistancefinanced projects currently incorporate climate risk into planning.
Delays mean greater risks — Delays in implementing adaptation, including delays in finance and
support for adaptation
in developing countries, ultimately means increased costs and greater dangers to more people in the
future. Major
events, such as droughts, monsoon failure or loss of glacial meltwater, could trigger large-scale
population movements
and large-scale conflict due to competition over scarcer resources such as water, food and energy.
Adaptation strategies vital — Adaptation, at the national level, includes initiating an effective
implementation strategy
for adaptation, including enhancement of the scientific basis for decision making; methods and tools
for the assessment
of adaptation; education, training and public awareness on adaptation, including for young people;
individual and institutional
capacity-building; technology development and transfer; and promotion of local coping strategies.
Beyond that,
possible initial activities on adaptation could include appropriate legislation and regulatory
frameworks, which promote
adaptive-friendly action. Using climate change as a driver to undertake activities with multiple
benefits can actually
catalyse progress in achieving a country’s sustainable development goals, while contributing to
adaptation objectives.
Resources for Adaptation
Sustained financing for adaptation — Without targeted funding, adaptation runs the risk of not being
effectively addressed
and funding may be largely limited to “reactive” funding, such as short-term emergency relief, which
would be unsupportive
of sustainable development approaches and be very costly.
The member Governments of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have
established a number of
funding opportunities for adaptation projects including through the Global Environment Facility (GEF)
Trust Fund and three
special funds: the Least Developed Countries Fund, the Special Climate Change Fund and the
Adaptation Fund under the
Kyoto Protocol.
Examples of Adaptation
Adaptation includes the partial drainage of the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake in Nepal, changes in livelihood
strategies in
response to permafrost melt by the Inuit in Nunavut, Canada, and the increased use of artificial
snow-making by the ski
industry in Europe, Australia and North America.
In anticipation of future climate change, planners have considered sea-level rise in the design of
infrastructure such as
the Confederation Bridge in Canada and in coastal zone management in the USA and The
Netherlands.
Glacial retreat and glacial lake floods are major problems linked to climate change. In Bhutan, a GEF
project being implemented
by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is enhancing adaptive capacity in the
Punakha-Wangdi
and Chamkar valleys by strengthening disaster management capability, artificially lowering waters in
Lake Thortormi,
and installing an early warning system.
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In Colombia, the Integrated National Adaptation project is promoting adaptation measures in the Las
Hermosas Massif
in the central range of the Andes, including by regulating water for hydropower generation and
maintaining environmental
services in this important mountain ecosystem.
Kiribati is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries, spread over 33 low-lying atolls in the central
and western Pacific
region. An adaptation programme is providing vulnerable communities with the information and
means to enhance adaptive
capacity, including improved management, conservation, restoration and sustainable use of
biodiversity, improved
protection and management of mangroves and coral reefs, and strengthening government capacity
by fully integrating
adaptation into economic planning.
In Mozambique, a GEF project is integrating climate into sustainable land management practices to
reduce the impacts
of extreme weather events on populations and ecosystems.
UNDP and the World Bank are launching a series of GEF projects to assist African communities to
assess risks and options
to adopt to drought, coastal flooding and health risks.
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Addressing the Leadership Challenge of Climate Change
United Nations Headquarters, New York, 24 September 2007
Fact Sheet
Quick facts:
As a modest first step in the right direction, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol has already helped stabilize and
in some
cases reduce greenhouse gas emissions in several industrialized countries of the world. However,
the emission
reduction targets established under the Kyoto Protocol apply only to a group of 36 industrialized
countries and
cover only a portion of global greenhouse gas emissions. The first commitment period of the Protocol
expires after
2012.
The rapid growth in emissions from both developed and developing countries will counteract the
emission
reductions achieved from the group of industrialized countries which have ratified Kyoto. Without an
ambitious
new agreement, it will be difficult to reign in both the emissions of highly industrialized countries and
of burgeoning
emerging economies. It is therefore urgent to advance negotiations for a global post-2012 climate
change
agreement.
The Kyoto Protocol’s emission reduction targets for industrialized countries expire after 2012. But the
Kyoto Protocol’s
emission reductions cover only a portion of global greenhouse gas emissions. The emissions of
highly industrialized
countries are at an unsustainable level and the emissions of economies in transition (not least of the
countries of the
former Soviet Union) have picked up again after years of decline. And while the per capita emissions
of developing
countries are low compared to the industrialized countries, the rapid growth in emissions from the
large emerging
economies need to be addressed under a new global agreement along with those of developed
countries.
With the mounting scientific evidence concerning climate change and its impacts, there is a growing
sense of urgency
for stronger international action. Although the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period does not
begin until 2008, a new
climate change agreement must quickly be put in place.
The Complexities
Developing countries vulnerable — Because developing countries have lower incomes than
industrialized countries,
developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change impacts and have less capacity to adapt
to these impacts
than developed countries. Further, while the emissions of developing countries as a whole are rising,
the per capita
levels of emissions are far less than those of industrialized countries. And the absolute level of
emissions for most developing
countries is extremely low. The next global agreement must address the needs of developing
countries while
safeguarding the economic interests of industrialized countries.
Major emission reductions needed — Greenhouse gases will increase anywhere between 25 to 90
per cent in 2030 from
1990 levels. Deep reductions in emissions are possible, without undermining the global economy,
through rapid and significant
advancement and deployment in climate-friendly technologies — renewable energy and emerging
technologies
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The Need for a New Global Agreement on
Climate Change
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such as carbon capture and storage. Such technologies will expand the options for reducing
greenhouse gas emissions,
and thus for international cooperation.
The Central Points for Negotiations
Possible themes for negotiations — While it is too early to predict the specific design of a future
climate agreement, it is
possible to identify guiding principles and items to be included in a broadened regime. Concluding a
strong multilateral
agreement — one that will set a path for decades to come — by 2009 presents a formidable
challenge but a reasonable
timetable is possible. The Climate Change Conference to be held in Bali in December 2007 provides
an opportunity
to significantly advance a comprehensive agenda on climate change policy for the years after 2012.
Basic principles
should be established during 2008, and by 2009 the world community should conclude an agreement
in order for it to be
ratified by 2012.
A post-2012 climate change regime needs to be broadened to allow all aspects of a global solution to
the problem to be
addressed, including:
A long-term global response in line with latest scientific findings and compatible with long-term
investment
planning needs of business;
Deep emission cuts by industrialized countries, which must continue to take the lead in line with their
historic
responsibility and economic capabilities;
Further engagement of developing countries, in particular those whose emissions already, or will in
the
near future, significantly contribute to atmospheric concentrations;
Incentives for developing countries to limit their emissions and assistance to adapt to the impacts of
climate
change while safeguarding socioeconomic growth and poverty eradication, and for this;
Flexibility through an enhanced carbon market to ensure the most cost-effective implementation and
to
mobilize the resources needed to provide the incentives to developing countries.
Getting started — The G8 industrialized countries, together with the +5 developing countries —
Brazil, China, India,
Mexico, and South Africa — called on all Parties to actively and constructively participate in the
negotiations on a
comprehensive agreement at Bali. This year provides the world with an opportunity to constructively
engage in the multilateral
climate change process under the auspices of the UN and to collectively craft an effective and fair
agreement
that includes all valid interests and concerns.
A UN high-level event on climate change — UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon is convening an
informal high-level
event in New York on 24 September 2007, the day before the general debate in the General
Assembly, to facilitate an
exchange of views and to galvanize political will for the Bali Conference. The event, while informal,
seeks to reaffirm
the importance of addressing climate change in a global forum and provide an opportunity to involve
all countries in the
multilateral process.
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State of the environment and policy responses, 1972-2002
Protected areas: Africa Regional highlights: Africa
Note: number of protected areas includes those in IUCN categories I-VI
Source: compiled from UNEP-WCMC 2001b
Annual aquaculture
production per capita
(kg)
The increasing numbers of African countries facing water stress
and scarcity, and land degradation, are major environmental
issues in the region. The rising costs of water treatment, food
imports, medical treatment and soil conservation measures are
not only increasing human vulnerability and health insecurity but
are also draining African countries of their economic resources.
The expansion of agriculture into marginal areas and clearance of
natural habitats such as forests and wetlands has been a major
driving force behind land degradation. The loss of biological
resources translates into loss of economic potential and options
for commercial development in the future. These negative
changes, however, have been tempered by Africa's impressive
wildlife conservation record, including a well-established network
of protected areas and the region's commitment to multilateral
environmental agreements. African countries also participate in
many regional and sub-regional initiatives and programmes.
Notable achievements include the 1968 African Convention on the
Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (currently being
updated) and the 1991 Bamako Convention on the Ban of the
Import into Africa and the Control of Transboundary Movement
and Management of Hazardous Waste within Africa.
Regional highlights: Asia and
the Pacific
Overpopulation, poverty and lack of enforcement of policy
measures have compounded environmental problems in many
parts of the region. Biological resources have long been of
subsistence importance, and have been increasingly exploited for
trade. About three-quarters of known or suspected species
extinctions have occurred on isolated islands in the region.
Protected areas constitute only 5 per cent of the total area,
compared to the IUCN benchmark of 10 per cent. Discharge of
sewage and other wastes has heavily polluted freshwater.
Sedimentation in rivers and reservoirs caused by large-scale
deforestation has also resulted in big economic losses.
Urbanization, industrialization and tourism, coupled with a growing
coastal population, have degraded many coastal areas. More than
60 per cent of Asia's mangroves have been converted to
aquaculture farms. Air pollution levels in some cities are among
the highest in the world. While most environmental trends have
been negative, positive changes have included improvement in
governance by public authorities, growing environmental
awareness and public participation, and increasing environmental
awareness in industry.
Source: compiled from Fishstat 2001 and United Nations
Population Division 2001
SO2 emissions in EMEP
countries (million
tonnes/year)
Over the period 1980-98, SO2 emissions in countries that are members of the
Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-Range
Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) have been reduced by 56 per
cent
Source: Vestreng and Støren 2000
Urban population
(percentage of total):
Latin America and the
Regional highlights:
Europe
The environmental situation is mixed: there have been
some noticeable improvements over the past 30 years (for
example, emissions to air); the state of biodiversity and
forests has not changed greatly; and other situations have
undergone marked degradation (freshwater, and some
coastal and marine areas). By the 1990s, the European
atmosphere had generally improved significantly.
Increasing efforts to safeguard natural areas and
biodiversity may signal a turnaround in species protection.
Freshwater stocks are unevenly distributed, with parts of
southern, western and southeastern Europe being
noticeably water stressed. The health of coastal and
marine areas has noticeably worsened, particularly in
southern and western Europe and the Mediterranean
coastline. Geographically, there has been an amelioration
of some environmental problems in Western Europe, and
a common (but far from universal) deterioration in Central
and Eastern Europe, with recent signs of a broad recovery
in many countries. The development of strong
environmental policies in the European Union promises
continuing progress in the area.
Regional highlights: Latin
America and the
Caribbean
Caribbean
Environmental degradation in Latin America and the
Caribbean has increased over the past 30 years. The main
pressures on the environment and natural resources are
the rising population, increasing inequality of incomes,
limited planning, especially in urban areas, and the high
dependence of many economies on natural resources
exploitation. More than 300 million ha of land have been
degraded and almost 30 per cent of the reefs in the
Caribbean are considered to be at risk. Of the more than
400 million ha of natural forest lost worldwide over the past
30 years, more than 40 per cent was in the region. Urban
environmental problems, especially air pollution, water
contamination and inadequate waste disposal, are having
severe health impacts on people living in citites, currently
75 per cent of the population. The increasing frequency
and intensity of natural disasters, possibly linked to climate
change, is having a high human and financial cost. The
poorest populations, especially urban ones, are the most
vulnerable to such disasters.
Graph shows the high levels of urbanization in the region
Source: compiled from United Nations Population Division 2001
Areas of concern (AOC)
in the Great Lakes
In 1987, Remedial Action Plans were developed to clean up 43 areas of concern
in the Great Lakes basin in both Canada and the United States
Source: EC 2000
Land degradation in
West Asia: severity and
Regional highlights: North
America
North America is a major consumer of the world's natural
resources and producer of its wastes, and its per capita
impact on the global environment is larger than that of any
other region. Resource conservation in North America has
been less successful than pollution abatement, and per
capita consumption has increased steadily since 1972.
There has been significant progress in controlling some
forms of air and water pollution and in continuing a trend to
set aside protected areas. During the 1990s, North
American free trade strengthened the economic ties
between Canada and the United States. At the same time,
regional environmental degradation led to an increased
recognition of the interdependent nature of cross-border
ecosystems. The two countries strengthened cooperative
measures to address transboundary pollution, agreeing to
more aggressive NOX emission controls, for example. They
also undertook to conserve the continent's wetland
habitats to protect waterfowl and other migratory species.
The impact of introduced exotic species on biological
diversity became of increasing environmental concern with
the liberalization of trade.
Regional highlights: West
Asia
causes (%)
Charts show the severity (percentage of total land area) and the causes
(percentage of total degradation) for the region and the two subregions. Note
the prevalence of wind erosion
Source: compiled from Marcoux 1996
The Antarctic ozone
hole breaks a new
record
The ozone hole reached a record size in September 2000 - 28.3 million km2,
three times the size of the United States. Dark blue areas denote high levels of
ozone depletion
Source: NASA 2001
Conservation and protection of freshwater resources is a
top priority, particularly on the Arabian Peninsula where
water deficits are being met mainly through exploitation of
groundwater resources. Countries are developing water
policies to manage water scarcity by increasing both water
supply and conservation, and introducing more efficient
irrigation. Land degradation and food security continue to
be key environmental issues. The region's seas include
some of the busiest shipping areas of the world, making
the marine environment susceptible to pollution events
such as oil spills. Per capita hazardous waste production is
among the highest in the world due to the types of industry
in the region. Air emissions from power stations,
desalination plants and industrial installations are also of
concern.
Regional highlights: the
Polar Regions
The major environmental issues in the polar regions
include the depletion of the stratospheric ozone layer, the
long-range transport of air pollutants, warming associated
with global climate change, the decline of several bird,
mammal and fish species, and pollution of major rivers. In
the Arctic, average yearly ozone levels in the 1990s had
declined by 10 per cent from the late 1970s, increasing the
risk of snow blindness and sunburn. Climate change is
expected to be more extreme in the polar regions than
anywhere else. Human activities are major threats to
biodiversity in the Arctic. The warming trend is reducing
the ice habitat for species such as the polar bear and
walrus. In the Antarctic, sealing and whaling have reduced
populations in the Southern Ocean. Eutrophication is a
recent problem in several lakes in Scandinavia. One of the
major developments in the Arctic is public opposition to
dam construction, particularly in the Nordic countries. For
example, in 2001 Iceland's National Planning Agency
rejected plans for a hydroelectric power project that would
have dammed two of the three main rivers flowing from
Europe's largest glacier and destroyed an extensive
wilderness.
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The topic of this year’s conference is:
The climate change is the world’s most important political and moral
question. Rich countries, the world’s biggest contributors to greenhouse
gas emissions, are responsible for the risk of global warming which will
affect poor countries the most.
WHAT CAN THE UNITED NATIONS DO TO SOLVE THE
CLIMATE CRISIS?
Climate change: The big emitters
The future of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change is largely in the hands of the
world's biggest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. BBC News Online looks
at how much they emit, what are they doing about it and where they stand on
Kyoto.
US
The US emits more, absolutely and per head, than any other country - although it also
produces more wealth. When Kyoto was agreed, the US signed and committed to reducing
its emissions by 6%. But since then it has pulled out of the agreement and its carbon
dioxide emissions have increased to more than 15% above 1990 levels.
For the agreement to become a legally binding treaty, it had to be ratified by countries
which together were responsible for at least 55% of the total 1990 emissions reported by
the industrialised countries and emerging economies which made commitments to reduce
their emissions under the protocol.
As the US accounted for 36.1% of those emissions, this 55% target was much harder to
achieve without its participation.
But 141 countries banded together and the protocol came into force in February 2005.
President George W Bush said in March 2001 that the US would not ratify Kyoto because he
thought it would damage the US economy and because it did not yet require developing
countries to cut their emissions.
He says he backs improvements in energy efficiency through voluntary emissions reductions
- rather than imposed targets - and through the development of cleaner technologies.
European Union
All 15 European Union states ratified the Kyoto deal in May 2002. The protocol's most
enthusiastic supporter, the EU has pressured countries such as Russia, Japan and Canada to
ratify Kyoto so that it could come into force without the commitment of the US.
The EU has continually argued for a rigorous application of Kyoto, wanting to limit the use of
so-called "flexibility mechanisms" which allow countries to partially meet their emissions
reduction targets by paying for improvements in other countries.
The EU has also opposed widespread use of forests and other carbon "sinks" to absorb
pollution - but gave substantial ground on the issue at talks in Bonn in 2001.
However, despite its tough stance on Kyoto, the EU is some way off its own target. It
pledged to bring total greenhouse gas emissions to 8% below 1990s levels by 2008-2012,
but by 2002 they had dropped only 2.9% - and CO2 emissions had risen slightly. Only four
EU countries are on track to achieve their own targets.
China
China is the world's second biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, but as a developing
country is not yet required to reduce its emissions.
With China accounting for a fifth of the world's population, increases in its emissions could
dwarf any cuts made by the industrialised countries.
The average Chinese person consumes only 10-15% of the energy an average US citizen
uses, but with the economy developing at high speed many analysts expect China's total
emissions to overtake America's by mid-century.
Fossil fuels play a major role - China is the world's biggest coal producer and oil
consumption has doubled in the last 20 years. The country faced power cuts in 2004 as
soaring growth outstripped electricity generation.
However, although no UN figures are available, analysts say there is evidence to back up
Chinese claims of a reduction in emissions during the late 1990s, largely due to increased
efficiency and slower economic growth.
China's leaders recognise that climate change could devastate their society and ratified the
Kyoto Protocol in 2002. In 2004 Beijing announced plans to generate 10% of its power from
renewable sources by 2010.
But it is far from clear whether the country would ever agree to internationally-imposed
emissions restrictions.
Russia
Russia ratified the Kyoto Protocol in November 2004 - the crucial moment making the treaty
legally binding.
Russia's entry was vital, because the protocol had to be ratified by nations accounting for at
least 55% of greenhouse gas emissions to become valid.
This target was only met after Russia joined.
Russia's economy has shrunk so drastically since 1990 that industrial activity has dropped,
leaving emissions reduced by about 35% and well below the level allowed under Kyoto.
In the short-term, Russia stands to gain billions of dollars through emissions trading - selling
its unused emissions entitlement to developed countries which want to emit more than the
protocol allows them to.
It says the money would be used for energy efficiency projects. Committing to keep
emissions low could, however, bring Russia economic costs in the longer term.
Japan
A major world economic power, Japan is a leading member of Kyoto, committed to cutting
emissions. It was responsible for 8.5% of emissions in 1990 and its support for the
agreement has been critical in the absence of US participation.
Although previously reluctant to ratify the protocol unless the US also committed, Japan
ratified it in June 2002.
It committed to reduce emissions by 6% from 1990 levels, but 2002 figures showed total
greenhouse gas emissions had risen 11% above the baseline figure.
The country recognises that its economy could benefit from the Kyoto agreement, as
Japanese companies could capture markets for new, clean technology.
India
Developing countries like India are not obliged to make any cuts in greenhouse emissions
under Kyoto. But as they raise living standards their emissions will increase. India's
emissions are estimated to have risen by more than 50% in the 1990s, although the country
has only submitted emissions figures to the UN for one year, 1994.
India recognises that many of its one billion people will be vulnerable to the effects of
climate change and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in August 2002.
But with India's economy and population, like China's, continuing to grow, it is clear that the
thorny issue of developing country emissions commitments will have to be tackled soon in
future rounds of negotiations.
The Kyoto protocol - A brief summary
The Kyoto Protocol (1) to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change strengthens the international response to climate
change. Adopted by consensus at the third session of the Conference of the
Parties (COP3) in December 1997, it contains legally binding emissions
targets for Annex I (developed) countries for the post-2000 period.
The developed countries commit themselves to reducing their
collective emissions of six key greenhouse gases by at least 5%. This
group target will be achieved through cuts of 8% by Switzerland, most
Central and East European states, and the European Union (the EU will meet
its target by distributing different rates among its member states); 7% by
the US; and 6% by Canada, Hungary, Japan, and Poland. Russia, New
Zealand, and Ukraine are to stabilize their emissions, while Norway may
increase emissions by up to 1%, Australia by up to 8%, and Iceland 10%.
The six gases are to be combined in a "basket", with reductions in individual
gases translated into "CO2 equivalents" that are then added up to produce a
single figure.
Each country’s emissions target must be achieved by the period
2008-2012. It will be calculated as an average over the five years.
"Demonstrable progress" towards meeting the target must be made by 2005.
Cuts in the three most important gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4), and nitrous oxide (N20) - will be measured against a base year of
1990 (with exceptions for some countries with economies in transition).
Cuts in three long-lived industrial gases – hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) - can be measured
against either a 1990 or 1995 baseline. (A major group of industrial gases,
chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal
Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.)
Actual emission reductions will be much larger than 5%. Compared
with emissions levels projected for the year 2000, the richest industrialized
countries (OECD members) will need to reduce their collective output by
about 10%. This is because many of these countries will not succeed in
meeting their earlier non-binding aim of returning emissions to 1990 levels
by the year 2000; their emissions have in fact risen since 1990. While the
countries with economies in transition have experienced falling emissions
since 1990, this trend is now reversing.
Therefore, for the developed countries as a whole, the 5% Protocol target
represents an actual cut of around 20% when compared with the emissions
levels that are projected for 2010 if no emissions-control measures are
adopted.
Countries will have a certain degree of flexibility in how they make
and measure their emissions reductions. In particular, an international
"emissions trading" regime will be established allowing industrialized
countries to buy and sell emissions credits amongst themselves. They will
also be able to acquire "emission reduction units" by financing certain kinds
of projects in other developed countries through a mechanism known as
Joint Implementation. In addition, a "Clean Development Mechanism" for
promoting sustainable development will enable industrialized countries to
finance emissions-reduction projects in developing countries and receive
credit for doing so. The operational guidelines for these various schemes are
being elaborated under a two-year Plan of Action that is to conclude at COP6.
They will pursue emissions cuts in a wide range of economic sectors.
The Protocol encourages governments to cooperate with one another,
improve energy efficiency, reform the energy and transportation sectors,
promote renewable forms of energy, phase out inappropriate fiscal measures
and market imperfections, limit methane emissions from waste management
and energy systems, and protect forests and other carbon "sinks".
The measurement of changes in net emissions (calculated as emissions
minus removals of CO2) from forests is methodologically complex and still
needs to be clarified.
The Protocol will advance the implementation of existing
commitments by all countries. Under the Convention, both developed and
developing countries agree to take measures to limit emissions and promote
adaptation to future climate change impacts; submit information on their
national climate change programmes and inventories; promote technology
transfer; cooperate on scientific and technical research; and promote public
awareness, education, and training. The Protocol also reiterates the need to
provide "new and additional" financial resources to meet the "agreed full
costs" incurred by developing countries in carrying out these commitments.
The Conference of the Parties (COP) of the Convention will also serve
as the meeting of the Parties (MOP) for the Protocol. This structure is
expected to reduce costs and facilitate the management of the
intergovernmental process. Parties to the Convention that are not Parties to
the Protocol will be able to participate in Protocol-related meetings as
observers.
The new agreement will be periodically reviewed. The Parties will take
"appropriate action" on the basis of the best available scientific, technical,
and socio-economic information. The first review will take place at the
second COP session serving the Protocol. Talks on commitments for the post2012 period must start by 2005.
The Protocol was opened for signature for one year starting 16
March 1998. It will enter into force 90 days after it has been ratified by at
least 55 Parties to the Convention, including developed countries
representing at least 55% of the total 1990 carbon dioxide emissions from
this group. In the meantime, governments continue to carry out their
commitments under the Climate Change Convention. In line with a Plan of
Action agreed at the fourth COP in Buenos Aires in November 1998, they are
working on many practical issues relating to the Protocol and its future
implementation at their regular COP and subsidiary body meetings.
The EU and its Member States ratified the Kyoto Protocol in late May
2002, fulfilling the Commission's ambition to enable the Kyoto Protocol to
come into force before the World Summit on Sustainable Development which
took place in Johannesburg between 24 August and 4 September 2002.
Climate Change
Available in: ‫ال عرب ية‬, Français, Español, русский, 中文
AT A GLANCE:

Climate change is both a development and environmental issue. A global
consensus is emerging that climate change is an issue that cannot wait
and needs to be addressed sooner rather than later.

Today there is a double challenge: how to reduce damaging carbon
emissions and still meet the energy demands of the world’s poor. The
World Bank focuses on the additional economic and social opportunities
that a low carbon path creates.

Countries trying to escape from poverty should not be penalized for the
consequences of fossil fuel dependent growth patterns in the rich
countries. Their development aspirations should be at the center.

-- Related Links -Climate Change Website
World Bank Experts:
Kristalina Georgieva
A global regulatory framework, which would provide the necessary
financial flows to developing countries, is needed. This framework should
match the long-term need for energy for development with the necessary technical innovation and financial
incentives to move towards a low carbon economy.
The Poor Are Disproportionately Affected
Developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change than rich countries, with poor people most at risk from
the increased impacts of volatility in weather patterns (i.e., floods and droughts). Human-induced climate change is
expected to negatively impact agricultural productivity throughout the tropics and sub-tropics, decrease water quantity
and quality in most arid and semi-arid regions, increase the incidence of malaria, dengue and other vector borne
diseases in the tropics and sub-tropics, and harm ecological systems and their biodiversity. In addition, sea level rises
associated with expected increases in temperature could displace tens of millions of people in low-lying areas, such
as the Ganges and the Nile deltas, and could threaten the very existence of small island states.
The Clean Energy Investment Framework (CEIF)
The G8 Gleneagles Summit two years ago asked the World Bank to produce a roadmap for accelerating investments
in clean energy for the developing world, in cooperation with the other international financial institutions.
The Clean Energy Investment Framework (CEIF) identifies the scale of investments needed for countries to:

increase access to energy, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa;

accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy; and

adapt to climate variability and change.
According to the Framework, the power sector needs US$165 billion in investments each year this decade. Only
about half of that financing is currently identified. Tens of billions of US $ per year are also required to cover the
incremental costs of transitioning to a low carbon economy. The added costs of climate proofing projects associated
with aid and concessionary finance to developing countries will amount to a few billion a year, while the total costs
born by developing country public and private sectors is likely to be some tens of billions per year.
A Clean Energy for Development Investment Framework: Making a Difference on Climate Change – Progress Report,
as presented in the Spring Meetings, has been further updated on the work undertaken to date as well as actions
planned by the World Bank Group in support of the CEIF, and is a background paper for discussion in the
Development Committee at the World Bank – IMF Annual Meetings in October 2007.
Towards a Low Carbon Development Path
Moving to a low carbon path will require a long-term, equitable, global regulatory framework to reduce greenhouse
emissions – a framework:

in which rich countries show leadership by supporting developing countries in exchange for the global benefit
of greener, smarter growth;

that provides certainty to stimulate research and development in transformational technologies; and

that allows carbon markets to thrive, potentially permitting financial flows to developing countries to the tune
of US$100 billion within a few decades.1According to Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), these financial flows could go a very long way
towards addressing climate change in developing countries.
The World Bank’s Approach to Clean Energy & Climate Change
The World Bank Group is focusing its efforts on four fronts.

Helping developing countries to move to a lower carbon path by exploiting renewable energy resources,
supporting energy conservation, and increasing efficiency. The Bank’s energy commitments for fiscal years
2006-2008 are expected to exceed US$10 billion, an increase of about 40 percent as compared to the
previous three year period. The World Bank Group committed US$1,434 million in fiscal year 2007 to
renewable energy and energy efficiency projects, representing 40% of total energy lending .

Promoting new technologies. Some of those, like carbon capture and storage (CCS), address the need to
reduce the carbon impact of fossil fuels. They are essential in countries like India and China that still depend
heavily on coal. As part of its broader work on bio-energy, the Bank is looking at the feasibility and economic
viability of bio-fuel programs in developing countries.

Preventing deforestation. Around 20 percent of greenhouse gas emissions result from poor land
management, especially deforestation, which not only threatens the environment it also destroys wildlife and
erodes the natural wealth of the poor. Together with its partners, the World Bank is developing a forest
carbon partnership facility that will help countries combat deforestation and be rewarded with carbon finance
credits.

Adaptation to climate risks. Developing countries and particularly the world poorest people would be the
ones most harmed by changes of climate and extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, heat waves,
and rising sea levels. The World Bank was among the leaders in addressing adaptation to climate risk by
pioneering catastrophic risk insurance work in the Caribbean, in Latin America, and in South Asia. The
challenge now is to replicate these lessons more widely, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Pacific
Islands.
The Bank’s adaptation work program is designed to enable the organization to scale up assistance to `developing
countries so that they can implement measures to adapt to the already inevitable social and economic impacts of
climate change. Three parallel programs of activities are designed to: (a) understand the nature and degrees of risks;
(b) build capacity to manage risks; and (c) invest in adaptive measures to minimize and mitigate risks.
Assessing the World Bank's Portfolio
The World Bank is working on a greenhouse gas (GHG) assessment, which will provide information about the current
emissions impacts of World Bank lending operations in our client countries, with the goal of identifying opportunities to
reduce the GHG footprint of development activities while continuing to support growth and poverty alleviation.
Helping our clients manage GHG risks through credible and transparent approaches to quantifying and reporting GHG
emissions associated with development projects will enable them to choose among development strategies, including
a menu of lower carbon alternatives, develop a more competitive investment environment that will support low-carbon
approaches, benchmark and track progress over time, and potentially participate more fully in carbon markets.
Global Gas Flaring Reduction (GGFR)
Through the Global Gas Flaring Reduction (GGFR) partnership, the World Bank is helping oil producing countries and
companies to increase the utilization of natural gas, which would otherwise be flared or burned and thus harm the
environment. The GGFR partnership estimates that about 150 billion cubic meters of gas is flared every year
(equivalent to about 30 percent of EU’s annual consumption of gas and 25 percent of US's consumption), releasing
about 400 million tonnes of CO2. In today’s context of sustainable development, gas flaring reduction efforts are thus
not only relevant but also viable and desirable.
Carbon Finance at the World Bank
The World Bank was a pioneer in the carbon market. The Bank’s operational engagement in carbon finance started
with the establishment of the US$180 million Prototype Carbon Fund (PCF) in 1999. This was rapidly followed by the
establishment of other funds and facilities as the Kyoto Protocol was ratified. Today, the World Bank manages just
over US $2 billion across 10 carbon funds and facilities. Sixteen governments and 65 private companies from various
sectors have made financial contributions to these funds.
The funds and facilities include the PCF; the Community Development Carbon Fund (CDCF), which extends c arbon
finance to small poorer countries and communities; the BioCarbon Fund (BioCF), which applies carbon finance to
forestry and land use projects; the Netherlands (Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI)
(*) Facilities; the Italian Carbon Fund; The Spanish Carbon Fund; the Danish Carbon Fund; the Umbrella Carbon
Facility; and the Carbon Fund for Europe, launched in March 2007.
While the Bank’s initial role was to catalyze the global market for carbon emission reductions, carbon finance is now
emerging into the mainstream of the Bank’s lending program. In December 2005, the Executive Directors endorsed
the Bank’s approach for further engagement in carbon finance, focusing on three clear objectives – to:

ensure that carbon finance contributes to sustainable development;

assist in building, sustaining, and expanding the international market for carbon emission reductions; and

further strengthen the capacity of developing countries to benefit from the emerging market for emission
reduction credits.
Operationally, the carbon finance program essentially supports the objectives of the second pillar of the Investment
Framework for Clean Energy and Development, by providing incentives for transitioning to a low-carbon economy in
the Bank’s client countries.
(*) The Clean Development Mechanism, (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) are flexible mechanisms under the
Kyoto Protocol that allow OECD countries to fulfill some of their greenhouse gas emission-reduction commitments
through projects in the developing world (CDM) and countries with economies in transition (JI) .