* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download WGCM Chemistry - Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Physics
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Canada wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup
Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Numerical weather prediction wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Report of the 13th Session of the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) San Francisco, 28-30 September 2009 Veronika Eyring (DLR, Germany) 13th Session of the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) San Francisco, 28-30 September 2009 OUTLINE I. Background and goals of the WGCM meeting II. Status CMIP5 Participating Models CMIP5 Simulations III.Forcings CMIP5 simulations Historical non-CO2 emission IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) AC&C/SPARC Ozone Database for CMIP5 IV. Observations for CMIP5 WOAP NASA initiative V. Evaluation of models WCRP survey Process-oriented evaluation I. Background WGCM and Gaols of the Meeting Background: • WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) leads the development of coupled ocean/atmosphere/land models used for climate studies on longer time-scales. • WGCM is also WCRP's link to the Earth system modelling in IGBP's Analysis, Integration and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) and to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Members: S. Bony and. J. Meehl (co-chairs) P. Braconnot, V. Eyring (SPARC, AC&C), D. Karoly, A. Hirst, M. A. Giorgetta, M. Kimoto, B. Wang, F. Giorgi N. Nakicenovic, C. Senior Goals of this years WGCM meeting: 1. Make progress with CMIP5 2. Model evaluation 3. 1- day jointly with AIMES II. Status CMIP5 Participating Models Primary Group Country Primary Contact NERSC Norway M. Bentsen, H. Drange Hadley Centre U.K. M. Collins, C. Jones GFDL U.S.A. T. Delworth, I. Held, L. Horowitz, R. Stouffer IPSL & LMD France J-L. Dufresne, S. Bony NIES & U. Tokyo, Japan S. Emori, M. Kawamiya, M. Kimoto, CCCMA Canada G. Flato MPI-HH Germany M. Giorgetta INGV Italy S. Gualdi EC-Earth consortium Europe CSIRO & BMRC Australia T. Hirst, K. Puri NASA GSFC U.S.A. M. Suarez W. Hazeleger Primary Group Country Primary Contact CSIRO & QCCCE Australia L. Rotstayn, J. Syktus, S. Jeffrey NCAR U.S.A. J. Hurrell, J. Meehl MRI Japan M. Kimoto METRI (with Hadley Centre) Korea W-T. Kwon LASG IAP China T. Zhou, B. Wang NASA GISS U.S.A. G. Schmidt BCC China Q. Li, Y. You, Z. Wang, T. Wu, Y. Xu, INM Russia E. Volodin CERFACS & CNRM France L. Terray, D. Salas-Melia U. Reading U.K. L. Shaffrey II. CMIP5 model simulations Two classes of models to address two time frames and two sets of science questions 1. Near-Term (2005-2030) high resolution (perhaps 0.5°), no carbon cycle, some chemistry and aerosols, single scenario Science question: e.g. regional extremes 1. Longer term (to 2100 and beyond) lower resolution (roughly 1.5°), carbon cycle, specified or simple chemistry and aerosols, benchmark stabilization concentration scenarios; Science question: e.g. feedbacks. © Crown copyright Met Office Long-term simulations III. Forcings CMIP5 Forcing data available on CMIP website (or via links) http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov • Solar (based primarily on Lean but spectrally resolved, or not) • Historical non-CO2 emissions • RCP emissions (different IAMs used to produce each RCP) • Land-use (U. of New Hampshire – Chini, Hurtt, Frolking) • Ozone time-evolving 3D historical concentrations (AC&C/SPARC) • AMIP SSTs and sea ice (PCMDI) • CFMIP Aqua-planet and idealized future pattern of SST (Hadley Centre) IIIa. AC&C: Historical Emissions for CMIP5 International effort to provide improved emissions 1850-2300, consistent across 2000 for anthropogenic (including shipping and aircraft) and biomass burning of reactive gases (not ODSs) and aerosols Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application. Jean-François Lamarque, Claire Granier, Tami C. Bond, O. Cooper,.Veronika Eyring, Angelika Heil, Mikiko Kainuma, Z. Klimont, David Lee, Catherine Liousse, J. R. McConnell , Aude Mieville, S. Oltmans, Bethan Owen, D. Parrish. Keywan Riahi, Martin Schultz, Drew Shindell, Steven Smith, Elke Stehfest, Allison Thomson, John Van Aardenne, Detlef Van Vuuren IIIb. Scenarios and Harmonization Objective to provide consistent set of emissions, concentrations and land use data at grid level for 1700-2100 (2300 period) Harmonized in 2000 with “databases” and smooth transition to historical trend and future scenario. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) provide concentrations for well-mixed gases, and emissions for air pollutants. Emissions will be translated into concentrations by atmospheric chemistry. Source: van Vuuren et al., 2009 IIIb. RCPs RCP6.0 (not yet available). Either keeping constant or ramping back to RCP4.5 Source: van Vuuren et al., 2009 IIIc. AC&C / SPARC Ozone Database for CMIP5 Effect of stratospheric ozone on climate • Ozone hole has led to a strengthening of the summertime surface westerlies at SH high latitudes [Thompson and Solomon, 2002]. • Ozone recovery is predicted to reverse that trend, with implications for the circulation of the southern ocean [Son et al., 2008]. • Effects of O3 depletion/recovery also in many other climate indicators showing its global impact. • CMIP3 models without any prescribed ozone changes (green), the past and future trends are the same; whereas models with prescribed ozone depletion and ozone recovery are different => Need accurate representation of ozone recovery in climate projections. Oct-Jan DJF DJF DJF Son et al., GRL, 2009 IIIc. AC&C / SPARC Ozone Database for CMIP5 Original plan: Building a new global ozone database Original goal: create a new ozone database that would be available in time for the CMIP5 modellers to use for AR5. • The NCAR database (Randel & Wu) • The NIWA database (Bodeker & Hassler) • The NOAA database (Rosenlof & Gray) • The GSFC database (Stolarski and Frith) • The Environment Canada database (Fioletov and McLinden) However, we couldn't reach a consensus approach among the individual database contributors. But this doesn’t mean that we have abandoned the consensus ozone database project. The need for a consensus database remains. Different Tiers: Tier 0: Raw zonal mean monthly mean data Tier 1: Databases constructed using a regression model, no missing data, tropopause to 50 km or higher pole-to-pole coverage, IIIc. AC&C / SPARC Ozone Data Sets for CMIP5 Goal: Provide a merged tropospheric / stratospheric ozone time series from 1850 to 2100 for use in CMIP5 simulations without interactive chemistry. I. Cionni & V. Eyring (DLR), JF. Lamarque & B. Randel (NCAR) A. Historical Database (1850-2009): CF netCDF monthly-mean lon, lat, pressure, time:month 1. Stratospheric data (Zonal means): • Multiple linear regression analysis of SAGE I+II satellite observations and polar ozonesonde measurements for the period 1979-2005 (Randel and Wu, JGR, 2007). • Regression includes terms representing equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and 11-year solar cycle variability. • Extended backwards to 1850 based on the regression fits combined with extended proxy times series of EESC and solar variability. 2. Tropospheric data (3D but decadal averages): • Average from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3.5 and the NASA-GISS PUCCINI model. • Both models simulate tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry with feedback to the radiation and were driven by the recently available historical (1850-2000) emissions succintly described in Lamarque et al., IGAC Newsletter, May 2009. 3. Combined stratospheric / tropospheric data (3D but underlying zonal mean in stratosphere): • S and T are combined by merging the two data sets across the climatological tropopause, to produce a smooth final data set. FINAL VERSION RELEASED ON 22 SEP 2009 (see CMIP5 website, 16 files a 30 MB) Total Ozone compared to other observations IIIc. AC&C / SPARC Ozone Data Sets for CMIP5 A. Historical Database (1850-2009) see more plots at http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/CCMVal/AC&CSPARC_O3Database_CMIP5.html Net Ozone Change 1979 to 2005 [%] 500 hPa July Ozone 1850-1859 1900-1909 1950-1959 2000-2009 Cionni et al., in prep, 2009 IIIc. AC&C / SPARC Ozone Data Sets for CMIP5 B. Future Database (2010-2099) • • • Stratosphere: multi-model CCMVal-2 mean Troposphere: Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3.5 The data from the observational core and the model time series are combined separately for each latitude band and pressure level using a linear regression model. C. Combined Ozone Timeseries (1850 to 2100) Austin, Scinocca et al., Chapter 9, SPARC CCMVal Report, 2009 Cionni et al., in prep, 2009 Background • • • • IVa. Observations WOAP WCRP Observation and Assimilation Panel (WOAP) Karl Taylor was appointed to be WGCM’s representative on WOAP. WOAP is a coordination Panel in WCRP It attempts to coordinate WCRP’s interests in observation-related activities. • In particular, WOAP is WCRP’s preferred channel for interacting with GCOS (Global Climate Observing System) • WOAP helps to coordinate GCOS panels (e.g., AOPC & OOPC) (Atmos. and Ocean Observation Panels for Climate • WOAP has strong interest in • Improving reanalyses • Promoting better calibration of and especially the continuity of climate observations => Make more use of the existence of WOAP within WGCM and SPARC (SPARC Data Initiative; presentation at March 2010 workshop by Michaela or Susann?) IVb. Observations NASA Initiative for CMIP5 (J. Teixeira et al.) Objective To provide the community of researchers that will access and analyze CMIP5 model results access to analogous sets of observational data. Analogous sets in terms of periods, variables, temporal/spatial frequency This activity will be carried out in close coordination with the corresponding CMIP5 modeling entities and activities It will directly engage the observational (e.g. mission and instrument) science teams to facilitate production of the corresponding data sets. V. Model Evaluation (a) WCRP Model Survey Key deficiencies of climate simulations : - (double) ITCZ and monsoons - internal modes of variability of the tropical atmosphere (MJO, ISO, QBO, ENSO, etc) - (excessively strong) equatorial cold tongue ; - (warm) SST biases in the eastern ocean basins - troposphere-stratosphere interactions - regional climate change responses of precipitation and soil moisture - cloud-climate and carbon-climate feedbacks Key deficiencies in the models' physics : - cloud and moist processes : atmospheric convection, precipitation, clouds in PBL, UTLS, polar.. - land-surface processes; soil moisture – precipitation interactions - ocean-atmosphere coupling (resolution, high-wind regimes, etc) - oceanic eddies - non-orographic gravity-wave drag; upper boundary condition (lid) - atmospheric chemistry General: - imbalance in visibility and efforts between the exploration of new, ‘hot’ territories and the work on key persistent unresolved problems; - the increase of models’ resolution reduces some problems, but creates new ones - efforts put in model evaluation very unequal (e.g. climate-carbon coupled models) - lack of inter-disciplinary interactions V. Model Evaluation (a) WCRP Model Survey (1) Promote the growth of the model development community : -> reaffirm the importance of improving basic atmospheric and oceanic components of models, ... (2) Organize systematic and coordinated investigations (physical / statistical) of the link between model errors and prediction errors : - > promote systematic investigations of the impact of resolution, strato/tropo coupling, eddies.. (3) Reduce the gap between large-scale modeling/processes/observations communities : -> encourage process-oriented evaluations/diagnostics of models (cf CFMIP, CCMVal) (4) Reduce the gap between climate/NWP/assimilation communities (5) Observations : -> development of simulators for model-data comparisons -> maintain observing network for long time series (in-situ, satellite) ... (6) Facilitate the sharing and the distribution of ressources (cf CMIP) : -> develop, collect and distribute diagnostics and codes (e.g. CLIVAR MJO WG) -> facilitate access to observations and meteorological analyses (7) Adapt the configuration of international programmes : -> separation WCRP / IGBP : an anachronism ? -> facilitate interactions among a large range of communities and disciplines The results of the WCRP Survey on Model Evaluation will be written up in a e.g. BAMS paper V. Model Evaluation (b) Process-oriented evaluation of climate models & ESMs IPCC, AR4 Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) AMIP AOMIP CFMIP CMIP SIMIP PILPS C4MIP OCMIP CCMVal ILAMB MAREMIP LUCID AEROCOM Is it time to get a bit more coordinated ? Process-oriented ESM evaluation following the CCMVal approach Start with the evaluation of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) from GCOS; in addition processes; Most EU-ESM groups on board, interest from PCMDI, Article to be submitted to BAMS Climate Fee dback Process Diagnostic Vari ables Observations Evaluati on for ES M References OLR, profiles of T, q, xl , xi, cloud fraction for 1xCO2 and 2xCO2 c limate simu lations Outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) CERES ES-4 Soden and Held [2006] soil – Corre lation between summer evapotranspiration, temperature and soil mo isture. Total evapotranspiration, Sensible heat flu x, Surface te mperature, Total and surface soil mo isture, FAPAR FLUXNET ecosystem sites data, SeaWiFS & M ERIS FAPAR Fluxnet [2006] Gobron et al. [1999, 2006] Surface wind stress forcing, formation of intermediate and deep water masses Anomalous poleward mass, heat and fresh water transport Hydrography (temperature, salin ity); 3D veloc ity; volume, heat and fresh water transports National oceanographic Hátún et al. [2005] data center (NODC); inflow Østerhus et al. [2005] and overflow transport over sills and through openings fro m literature Sensitivity to changes in CO2 and climate GPP, surface/leaf temperature, prec ipitation FLUXNET ecosystem sites data NDVI satellite p roduct FACE manipulat ive e xperiments Sensitivity to changes in climate, ocean circulat ion, and rising CO2 POC primary production, POC e xport production, PIC production, POC part icle flu xes, Ca CO3 part icle flu xes Primary productivity Behrenfeld and Falk owsk i derived fro m re motely [1997a,b] Behrenfeld et al. sensed ocean colour [2005] (SeaWiFS) Physical climate fee dbacks Atmospheric Dynamics & Cl ouds Water vapour/lapse rate feedback Positive climate feedback by increased water vapour greenhouse effect Land Surface physics Land-cover status - energy balance feedback Strength of mo isture temperature coupling Ocean Dynamics & Sea Ice North Atlantic thermohaline circulat ion and climate feedbacks Gl obal car bon c ycle fee dbacks Land Biogeoc he mistry Feedback between climate change and Net Ecosystem Productivity Gross Prima ry Productivity Fluxnet [2006] Tuck er et al. [2005] Norby et al. [2005] Marine Biogeoche mistry Feedbacks between climate change plus rising CO2 and the biological carbon pumps Biologica l partic le production at the sea surface and vertical particle flu xes throughout the water column Partic le flu xes from JGOFS data base Atmospheric composition fee dbacks Aerosols Aerosol – climate interactions and feedbacks Oxidation, wet re moval & vertica l mixing in troposphere Changes in precipitation rate, wet deposition rates, aerosol residence time, vertical part itioning Speciated wet re moval EM EP, IM PROVE, NADP, rates, precipitation, aircra ft and lidar profiles mixing ratios, (CA LIOP) Temperature - and climatedependent changes in NOx and VOC e mission rates Mixing ratios of NOx and key VOCs (especially isoprene and products) Rae et al. [2007] Kirk evag et al. [2008] Che mistry-Cli mate Changes in RF due to tropospheric ozone and other oxidants Biogenic precursor emissions (VOC and NOx) Land and oce an e missions & de position Soil – Soil e missions; dry Climate-dependent changes deposition in wind blown dust atmospheric chemistry feedbacks SCIAMACHY, GOM E2 Yienger and Levy [1995] (CH2 O as an indicator of Jaegle et al. [2005] VOCs); CM DL flask Guenther et al. [2006] network; composites of fie ld ca mpaign data Mass and size Satellite dust aerosol Tegen et al. [2004] distributions of dust, products, AERONET Balk ansk i et al. [2004] surface wind speed, and soil characterization, soil mo isture and vegetation cover Concept of processoriented ESM evaluation Proposal for an ESM MIP E S M I P Aim : Facilitate/encourage/enforce process oriented evaluation of ESMs - Coordinated diagnostic effort - Build on previous MIPs experience - Focus on processes and feedbacks relevant for climate projections - Use of global 20th century observations - Use of CMIP5 and related model simulations - ESM perspective (eg. coupling issues) - To be endorsed by WGCM and AIMES ?