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“THE CHALLENGE AND OPPORTUNITY OF PRIVATE SECTOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE” Maximo Torero, IFPRI [email protected] Cartagena 2016 Photo: S. Allen, IFPRI CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND RISK • Moderate consensus that temperate regions will have increased variability in temperature and rainfall • No consensus on tropical regions (IPCC AR4) • But increased mean temperature increases risk Climate change and Agriculture: what can we quantify? Climate models: Global Circulation Models changes in weather patterns (here 4 different models will be used) Changes in yields Climate Change • Water • Temperature • CO2 fertilization Changes in Pest and Disease Extreme events Agronomic models: Crop models changes in yields at constant economic conditions (here different models will be used based on AgMip) Economic models: Impact on the economic systems, feedback of investments, specialization… (here we use the MIRAGRODEP CGE) Climate Change Price Impacts SCENARIO RESULTS Figure 1. Impacts of climate change on global yields, area, production and prices of the 5-crop aggregate relative to baseline values in 2050 for each Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) compared across five models Note: ENV = ENVISAGE, FAR = FARM, IMP = IMPACT, MGN = MAGNET, MGP = MAgPIE. Source: Work in progress by IFPRI, LEI-WUR, PIK, Purdue, USDA-ERS, IDS Average Impact of climate change (yield effects) on fruits and vegetables consumption per capita, %, by 2050 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 APEC (Total) North America South America Oceania South East Asia East Asia High income Countries Upper and Middle Income countries Low and Middle income countries Geographical grouping Income grouping Advanced farmers PPPs (Publicprivate) Commercial smallholders Semi-commercial Small holders • Private for-profit sector Subsistence smallholders • Public sector • Civil organizations Social and Economic benefits • Private for-profit sector (input industry, agroSuitable for all categories dealers, processors ad • Private for-profit sector business and personal through BOP sales presentation Suitable for categoriesnot-for-profit • allPrivate • Public sector, business and personal sector (i.e. foundations) governments, NARS, CG centers (AFS) • Ngo & foundations buyers of produce) • Public sector • Civil organizations presentation • Public sector PPPs (Private-private) • Civil society organizations • Other civil society organizations • R&D partnerships • Connectivity • Extension partnerships • Contract farming • Seed system Public goods called for at each stage Stages of progression • Financial services • Market access Examples of interventions to strengthen value chains and linking with private sector Policy reforms; tax and trade Third party validation of quality in milk marketing in Vietnam Contract farming incentives to increase regularity of delivery of milk in Senegal, with added incentives for child nutrition Quality grading of onions in Senegal Design of working capital loans for farmers’ organizations in Uganda to support aggregation for marketing and secure higher prices