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Rain or shine? Understanding public perceptions of weather and climate risk Dr Andrea Taylor Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment [email protected] University of Leeds Prof Wӓndi Bruine de Bruin Prof Suraje Dessai University College London Dr Carmen Lefevre Carnegie Mellon University Prof Baruch Fischoff Dr Kelly Klima London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Dr Sari Kovats Funding Climate change is a concept that can be difficult to understand Linking it to specific types of weather events may make it more concrete and personally relevant - Weber and Stern (2009) Why is this important to explore this? •Awareness •Mitigation •Adaptation Local warming Climate change concern amongst US public influenced by local temperatures. (e.g., Deryugina, 2013; Egan & Mullin, 2012; Hamilton & Stampone, 2013; Risen et al., 2011) However, not all countries experience frequent hot summers. Residents in temperate regions may even look forward to the prospect of warmer summers (Bruine de Bruine et al., 2016; Lefevre et al., 2015 Palutikof et al., 2004) However, increased temperatures are not the only projected impact of climate change The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment projects an increase in rainfall and flooding Rochdale Town Centre, Boxing Day 2015. Photographer: Chris Birtles Studies 1 and 2 (Taylor et al., 2014; Lefevre et al, in review) To what extent are perceptions of weather linked to beliefs about climate change amongst UK residents? Gordon Hatton http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/126451 John Brightley http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/2201581 Robert Wade http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/1925559 9 Study 1 A lot more frequent 5 4 No change 3 2 1 Floods Heavy rain Coast erosion Mild winters Cold winters Snow Drought Heat waves Hot summers “Do you think that the following have become more or less frequent over your lifetime” (n=2007: Survey conducted by Ipsos MORI, 2013) At lot less frequent Relationship between perceived change in weather climate change concern Perceived change in…. Wet weather Regression (β) .28*** Cold weather .02 Hot weather .15*** *Sig at p≤.05 **Sig at p≤.01 ***Sig at p≤.001 Note: OLS regression model (β) controlled for demographic variables Explanations For UK residents extreme wet weather is easier to recall •Availability Heuristic: Threats judged to be riskier when they are easily recalled (Tversky and Kahneman, 1973) For UK residents hot weather is often felt to be pleasant •Affect Heuristic: Threats judged to be more risky when they (Slovic et al., 2004) Limitation: This study only looked at perceptions at one point in time. We can’t tell what causes what. •Experiential Reasoning: Perceived Climate weather concern •Motivational Reasoning: Climate concern (e.g. Myers et al., 2012; Weber, 2010) Perceived weather Study 2: A national UK sample was presented with the same questions as Study 1 at three points during 2013/14 Perceived change in… Oct 2013 April 2014 July 2014 Regression (β) Regression (β) Regression (β) Wet weather .47*** Cold weather -.04 Hot weather .15*** .13** **Sig at p≤.01 ***Sig at p≤.001 *Sig at p≤.05 .43*** -.00 .40*** -.00 .15*** Note: OLS regression model (β) controlled for demographic variables • Motivational reasoning was found for wet and hot weather. • Experiential reasoning was only found for wet weather. • Conclusions • For UK residents concern about climate change leads to greater perceived experience of wet and hot weather. • However, only perceived experience of wet weather leads to greater climate change concern. • Attributable to the greater “availability” of wet weather, and the positive “affect” evoked by hot weather. Study 3 (Taylor et al., in review) What are UK residents expectations and priorities with respect to the future impacts of climate change? PREPARE (Ipsos MORI, 2013: n=2007) •Each participant randomly shown 10 out of 19 impacts. •Impacts included opportunities as well as threats. •Participants rated expected likelihood, expected concern and willingness to allocate resources. •We compared concern with expert assessments of severity (Climate Change Risk Assessment, 2012) Taylor et al. (IN REVIEW) • Threats perceived as more likely that opportunities • Public expectations not always consistent with expert assessment. • Wet weather and flooding perceived as most likely (and most concerning). • Concern about specific impacts predicted willingness to allocate resources. Conclusions •Concern about specific impacts rather than broader climate concern is linked to greater willingness to expend resources. •However, residents may be less well prepared for future increases in hot weather than future increases in wet weather Study 4 (Taylor et al., in preparation) How accurate are UK and US residents perceptions of recent temperature and rainfall? Do UK and US residents differ in the extent to which they link perceived experience of temperature and rainfall to personal threat from climate change? Perceived seasonal temperatures: UK and US residents “Warmer than normal” “About normal” “Colder than normal” US=488 participants, UK=462 participants Perceived seasonal rainfall: UK and US residents “Wetter than normal” 5 4.5 4 3.5 “About normal” 3 2.5 2 1.5 “Drier than normal” 1 Local National Global Local Summer 2013 National Winter 2013/14 US UK US=488 participants, UK=462 participants Global Key findings •Recalled national conditions did not always match observations, and appear to be driven by prominent events. •Peoples appear to generalise perceived experience of to national and global conditions (“attribute substitution”). •Amongst US residents perceived hot summers linked to greater perceived threat from climate change. •Amongst UK residents wet winters linked to greater perceived threat from climate change. Study 5 (Klima et al., in preparation) Do UK and US residents differ in the extent to which they are prepared to take steps to adapt to different types of climate change impact? Expectations about future weather Expectations for worse weather 5 United States United Kingdom 4 3 2 1 Hot Wet Windy Type of Weather Hot Wet Windy Type of Weather US=474 participants, UK=607 participants Willingness to adapt Willingness to adapt United Kingdom United States 5 4 3 2 1 Hot Wet Windy Type of Weather Hot Wet Windy Type of Weather US=474 participants, UK=607 participants Linear regressions predicting willingness to adapt (unstandardized B) from weather expectations and climate change concerns. United States United Kingdom Variables Hot Wet Windy Expectations for worse weather 0.19* 0.18* Climate change concerns 0.23** R2 0.31 *** ** + p<0.001; p<0.01; *p<0.05; p<0.10. Hot Wet 0.20* 0.28*** 0.28*** 0.26** 0.25** 0.29** 0.20** 0.15+ 0.15+ 0.29 0.32 0.32 0.34 0.28 Note: OLS regression model controlled for demographic variables Windy Key findings •US residents more willing to adapt to increases hot than wet weather. •UK residents more willing to adapt to increases in wet than hot weather •For both UK and US residents expectations about future weather predicted willingness to adapt. Conclusions •Concern about climate change and its impacts linked to “availability” and “affect”. •Perceptions of weather can drive climate change concern, but climate change concern also drive weather perceptions •Public recollections and expectations do not always match expert observations and projections. •Willingness to adapt may be driven more by concern about specific impacts than general concern about climate change Implications for communication Mitigation •Be aware that the impacts that people associate with climate change varies between regions. •While weather experience can drive concern, concern may also influence perceived weather experience. Adaptation •Focusing on specific impacts rather than general climate concerns may be more effective in increasing preparedness. Climate Change Adaptation Group http://lubswww2.leeds.ac.uk/cdr/ http://www.see.leeds.ac.uk/research/sri/climate-change-adaptation-group/ Thank you! Jul Jul Jul Experiential path Motivational path Note: Covariance paths and control variables are omitted for presentation purposes. ‡p< .10 ; *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001 33 Jul Jul Jul Experiential path Motivational path Note: Covariance paths and control variables are omitted for presentation purposes. ‡p< .10 ; *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001 Expert Assessment (CCRA) Impact Nature of impact Projected “Consequence” Public expectations and priorities Likelihood (1-5 scale) Concern (1-4 scale) Resource allocation (Out of 15) More homes being flooded as a result of heavy rainfall (n=1019) Threat High 4.16 (0.78)* 3.29 (0.72)* 2.26 (1.88)* Poor harvests, due to extreme weather, pushing up food prices (n=993) Threat No Rating 4.05 (0.83)* 3.46 (0.68)* 2.87 (2.11)* Low lying coasts being permanently flooded or eroded by rising sea levels (n=977) Threat Medium 3.95 (0.83)* 3.20 (0.77)* 1.55 (1.52) Some types of wildlife are lost or decline in number because they cannot relocate to where the climate remains suitable for them (n=1009) Threat Medium 3.95 (0.86)* 3.20 (0.83)* 1.44 (1.62) New pests and diseases become common in the UK (n=1002) Threat Medium 3.76 (0.90)* 3.20 (0.80)* 1.81 (1.50)* Public services like roads, power stations, schools and hospitals being disrupted as a result of heavy rainfall (n=1016) Threat High 3.74 (0.95)* 3.18 (0.74)* 2.52 (1.91)* Air pollution gets worse from hotter weather, which particularly affects people with poor health or breathing problems (n=1000) Threat No Rating 3.70 (0.95)* 3.15 (0.79)* 1.86 (1.53)* A reduction in marine wildlife from changes in sea temperature (n=973) Threat Medium 3.67 (0.94)* 3.16 (0.80)* 1.15 (1.26)* Droughts causing serious water shortages due to changes in rainfall patterns (n=992) Threat High 3.63 (0.98)* 3.26 (0.78)* 2.37 (1.80)* Opportunity Medium 3.56 (0.90)* 2.04 (0.88)* 0.75 (1.37)* More people’s health suffering in extreme heat due to more frequent heat waves (n=1014) Threat High 3.46 (1.03)* 3.16 (0.78)* 1.81 (1.58)* Increased demand for energy for cooling (e.g. air conditioning) due to a warmer climate (n=987) Threat Medium 3.42 (1.03)* 2.72 (0.85)* 1.07 (1.36)* Cities and large towns, which trap heat, becoming unbearably hot due to heat waves (n=982) Threat Region specific 3.27 (1.07)* 2.82 (0.88)* 0.86 (1.07)* Fewer vulnerable people dying in the cold due to milder winters (n=958) Opportunity High 3.14 (0.95)* 1.90 (0.93)* 0.64 (1.34)* More people living in the UK take their holidays in the UK rather than going on holiday abroad, due to a warmer UK climate (n=985) Opportunity Medium 3.06 (1.06) 1.73 (0.80)* 1.07 (1.84)* Threat Low 3.04 (1.06) 2.82 (0.83)* 1.47 (1.45) Both No Rating 2.93 (1.06) 2.92 (0.91)* 0.31 (0.80)* Lower demand for energy due to warmer winters (n=974) Opportunity Medium 2.92 (1.02) 1.71 (0.80)* 0.30 (0.89)* More tourists choosing to visit the UK because of a warmer climate (n=986) Opportunity Medium 2.89 (1.00)* 1.82 (0.80)* 0.31 (0.73)* New crops become more common in the UK due to a warmer climate (n=996) Disruption to trains, roads, and public transport due to more frequent heat waves (n=1006) More people move to the UK because of changes in the climate of their own country (n=963) Correlation (Pearson’s R) Likelihood with concern Likelihood with climate change belief Concern with climate change belief A reduction in marine wildlife… More homes being flooded as a result of heavy rainfall Some types of wildlife are lost or decline in number… Low lying coasts being permanently flooded or eroded… Poor harvests, due to extreme weather, pushing up food prices Air pollution gets worse from hotter weather… Public services…being disrupted as a result of heavy rainfall Droughts causing serious water shortages… New pests and diseases… become common in the UK .51* .51* .52* .50* .43* .46* .47* .43* .48* .54* .50* .49* .48* .46* .44* .43* .43* .37* .52* .42* .49* .39* .39* .41* .47* .44* .39* Cities and large towns… becoming unbearably hot due to heat waves Disruption to… transport due to more frequent heat waves Increased demand for energy for cooling… More people’s health suffering in extreme heat… New crops previously grown abroad become more common in the UK… More people living in the UK take their holidays in the UK… More people permanently move to the UK… More tourists choosing to visit the UK… Lower demand for energy due to warmer winters… .43* .40* .42* .42* .35* .31* .31* .30* .13* Fewer vulnerable people dying in the cold due to milder winters… Impact (ordered by strength of association between perceived likelihood and climate change belief) Regression coefficient (standardized β) showing independent contribution to willingness to allocate resources to impacts a Expected likelihood Expected concern Climate change belief .08 .08 .06 -.01 .01 .06 -.01 .04 .08 .14* .29* .11 .21* .22* .16* .21* .14* .17* .21* .15* -.04 -.05 .03 -.06 -.12* -.06 -.14* -.14* -.05 -.04 .35* .34* .34* .33* .03 .06 .10 .13* .15* .21* -.09 .07 -.10 .24* .20* .13* .01 -.05 .20* .23* .14* .20* .17* .17* .15* .13* .10 -.01 <.01 .13* .09 .03 .10* -.05 .24* .31* .13* .16* -.07 -.05 -.12* .02 .17* .08 .12* -.04 .13* -.06 North East East North Central Central South East South South West West 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 Local National Summer 2013 Global Local National Winter 2013/14 Global For US residents perceived threat from climate change was linked to perceived experience of hot summer temperatures. For UK residents perceived threat from climate change was driven by perceived experience of winter rainfall.