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CLIMATE CHANGES, POSSIBLE IMPACTS AND MITIGATION OPTIONS Milan LAPIN Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics, Comenius University, Bratislava, SLOVAKIA SLOVAK NATIONAL CLIMATE PROGRAM Reviewer of IPCC Reports AR4 (2007) and TAR (2001) [email protected] , www.dmc.fmph.uniba.sk CO2NET EAST Workshop , Bratislava, March 3, 2009 AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ON EARTH CONTINENTS IN AVERAGE DURING ALL GEOLEOGIC PERIODS Quarternary Millions of years Rapid cycles Cold +4 °C Warm Great uncertainties Dry The warmest and the driest period Wet Present Holocene By: Frakes, 1979 ABSTRACT ¾ Slovakia, as a member state of the EU, is committed to an 8 % ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ reduction of GHGs emissions compared to the base year 1990 A reduction of total anthropogenic emissions of GHGs, stated as CO2 equivalent – 30 % in 2002 compared 1990, small rise up to 2008 In Dec. 2005 the 4th Slovak National Communication on Climate Change was issued by the Slovak Ministry of Environment In 1991 – established the Czecho-Slovak National Climate Program The period 1991-2008 – significant in exceptional weather events occurrence in Slovakia (heat waves, flash floods, drought…) Very reliable time series of daily data measured by the Observatory at Hurbanovo, 115 m a.s.l., SW Slovakia, other 33 station since 1951 and 3 since 1881, about 100 reliable rain gage series since 1901 Nine GCMs outputs from 5 World Modeling Centers applied – CGCM2/3 and GISS 1998 the most frequently used, 15 other tested Water cycle, water resources, water management, agriculture, field ecosystems, forestry, forest ecosystems – impacts studied Mitigation measures and their co-ordination with adaptation options CO2NET EAST Workshop , Bratislava, March 3, 2009 VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACTS, ADAPTING AND MITIGATION OPTIONS ¾ Slovak Republic’s Country Study (U.S. Country Studies Program, 55 countries) in 1994-1997 ¾ Slovak Republic’s National Climate Program (SR NCP) in 19912001 and 2008 (funded by the Ministry of Environment – MZP SR), in 2002-2007 funded only by the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMI) ¾ Inventory of greenhouse gases emission in Slovakia is coordinated by the MZP SR and SHMI since 1993 ¾ Other scientific projects, coordinated by collaborating institutions (funded mostly by the Ministry of Land Management, Ministry of Education and by the Slovak Grant Agency -VEGA) ¾ These sources were a base for the preparing of Slovak National Communication on Climate Change approved by the Slovak Government in 1995, 1997, 2001, 2005, (2009?) IMPACTS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTORS ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ Climate in Slovakia (monitoring, analysis, scenarios…) Hydrological Cycle (runoff, evaporation, ground water…) Water Economy (management of water supply…) Water Resources (drinking water…) Agricultural Economy (management, plant production) Agricultural Ecosystems (pest, diseases, weeds…) Forestry (management…) Forest Ecosystems (instability, pest, diseases…) Biodiversity (instability, new species…) Contacted Sectors – not participating ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ Recreation and Tourism Health and Hygiene Economy, Civil engineering and Energy supply Transport and Telecommunications SCIENTIFIC THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE ¾“Climate Change” – anthropogenic influence ¾Physics, chemistry and biology of climate change and natural climate changes ¾Socio-economic cross-correlation and impacts ¾Natural ecosystems and climate change ¾Positive and negative feedbacks and forcing ¾Misinterpretations by some groups of experts ¾CLIMATE CHANGE MONITORING IN SLOVAKIA AS THE FIRST STEP SLOVAK REPUBLIC – 49 036 sq. km, 440 m mean elevation, 5.4 mil. inhabitants, 747 mm mean precipitation, 7.5 °C mean temp. 50% agricultural land, 41% forest land, 2% water area, 3% built-up areas, 5.4% above 1000 m The High Tatras Hurbanovo Observatory at the Lomnický štít, 2635 m a.s.l. Photo: M.Lapin, 2004 Hurbanovo Observatory, 115 m a.s.l., since 1871 Photo: M.Lapin, 1989 PRECIPITATION STATIONS NETWORK IN SLOVAKIA Figure 3 - N ational O bser ving Syste m Part D of the Surface Sub-system 607 stations in 1951-2000, 557 of higher quality 203 in 1901-2000, 100 of higher quality About 1000 hydrological station is available for the climate change impacts analysis in Slovakia 100 - 115 climatic stations in 1951-2000 35 complete stations in 1961-2000 Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute D : P artial O bserving System for C limatology 3 complete in 1881-2000 only stat ions w ith the R ainfall Programm e ( 655 ) ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (dT) AND PRECIPITATION (RN) DEVIATIONS SLOVAKIA 1901-2008 dTN[°C] 3 M.Lapin by the SHMI data 2 y = 0,0001x - 0,0023x - 0,36 2 r = 0,2954 2 3 stations 1 RN[%] 160 Trend +1.41 °C dTN 145 0 130 -1 -2 Trend –3.38% -3 115 RN -4 100 -5 -6 85 -7 2 y = 0,0013x - 0,18x + 104,8 2 r = 0,0134 -8 203 stations 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950 1945 1940 1935 1930 1925 1920 1915 1910 1905 70 1900 -9 SCIENTIFIC THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS SOME EXAMPLES Most of these information are available on our web site www.dmc.fmph.uniba.sk Annual values of Earth’s surface and Atmosphere energetic balance Albedo Solar Radiation Greenhouse gases in the Atmosphere, H2O Atmospheric window for λ = 8.5-12.5 μm Infra Red A T M O S P H E R E By IPCC 2007 EARTH’S SURFACE It is important, that total IR radiation can be absorbed in lower layer of the atmosphere, if some GHG increases its concentration. Normalized curves The atmosphere produce IR radiation as well, and the absorption process continues up to the top of the atmosphere. Wikipedia The higher is GHGs concentration in the atmosphere, the greater is increase of surface atmosphere temperature. By IPCC AR4, WG1, CH 2, Figure 1. Natural forcing in the Earth’s Climate System – Solar radiation Maunder Minimum By IPCC, 2006 By Wikipedia VARIABILITY OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM THE 1961-1990 AVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IN 1850-2008 (Sea surface T a and Land air T, HADLEY, CRU UK DATA) dT [°C] Northern Hemisphere - sea surface temperature (SST2) and continental air temperature (NH Land) 1,2 1,0 deviation from 1961-1990 average, 30-year moving means as trend (NH-30 for 1979-2008 is in 1994) NH Land By http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/ elaborated M.Lapin SST2 0,8 NH_30 0,6 SST2-30 Solar radiation increase Sulphate aerosols El Nino 0,4 0,2 0,0 -0,2 -0,4 Rapid CO2 increase -0,6 -0,8 Different Sea surface T and Land air T trends 1850 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -1,0 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS SUMMARY • Scenarios based on the Atmosphere General Circulation Models GCMs (Atmosphere-Ocean Models at present) • Scenarios based on analogues – data from instrumental measurements or from paleoclimatic reconstruction • Incremental scenarios – suitable combination of air temperature and precipitation increments (T increase by 1, 2, 3, 4 °C, R changes by 5, 10, 15, 20%) – acceptable for impact model testing only • Stochastic weather generator based time series as scenarios • Combined scenarios – 1. Step: selection of reliable T (temperature), R (precipitation) and s (specific humidity) GCMs scenarios and 2. Step: calculation of analogs for other climatic/hydrologic elements using correlation/regression and simple modeling – scenarios for whole distribution range – Priority in Slovakia • Scenarios for time frames, time series, extremes... • Based on these scenarios the impacts in socio-economic sectors More details in: www.dmc.fmph.uniba.sk 4 CCCM2000 & GISS98 AND 9 CGCM3.1 GRID POINTS ROUND SLOVAKIA USED m a.s.l. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ALTITUDE CCCM GISS (m a.s.l.) A 616 361 B 554 386 C 531 366 D 566 345 561 364 C A D B 306 m 239 m 483 m 474 m 337 m 463 m 193 m 200 m 216 m IPCC SRES SCENARIOS ¾ Outputs of the CGCM3.1 model contain results by SRES A2 and SRES B1 emission scenarios assessments ¾ The first one represent pessimistic supposition of mankind behavior up to 2100 and the second the optimistic one (IPCC 2000) ¾ Emission of fossil Carbon is supposed as 28.9 Gt by SRES A2 (cumulative 1773 Gt) and 5.2 Gt by SRES B1 (cumulative 989 Gt) in 2100. ¾ This difference is much more expressed in air temperature scenarios after 2040 Emission scenarios A1, B1T, A1F1, A2, B1, B2 and older IS92a represent different ways of Climate Change mitigation Alternative scenarios prepared by 6 different centers AIR TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS FOR HURBANOVO T[°C] Growing period temperature scenarios for Hurbanovo, CGCM3.1, SRES A2, B1 24 23 22 21 20 CGCM3.1 daily data the in April-September season modified for Hurbanovo A2 No significant changes in annual precipitation totals are expected 19 18 17 B1 16 15 HU Based on the SHMI data, modified by M. Lapin et al. 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 14 CGCM3.1 – A2 scenario for daily temperature means change up to 2100 (Hurbanovo, Apr.-Sept. season) N[%] 20 1961-1990 18 1996-2025 16 2016-2045 14 2061-2090 12 2071-2100 By M. Lapin et al. 10 8 6 4 T [°C] 2 36 - 38 34 - 36 30 -32 28 - 30 26 - 28 24 - 26 22 - 24 20 - 22 18 - 20 16 - 18 14 - 16 12 - 14 10 - 12 8 - 10 6-8 4-6 2-4 0-2 -2 - 0 -4 - -2 0 RELATIVE HUMIDITY SCENARIOS FOR HURBANOVO U[%] Growing period relative humidity scenarios, Hurbanovo, CGCM3.1, SRES A2, B1 78 75 HU CGCM3.1 daily data the in April-September season modified for Hurbanovo 72 69 66 63 A2 60 B1 Based on the SHMI data, modified by M. Lapin et al. 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 57 SATURATION DEFICIT SCENARIOS FOR HURBANOVO D[hPa] Growing period saturation deficit scenarios, Hurbanovo, CGCM3.1, SRES A2, B1 12 11 CGCM3.1 daily data the in April-September season modified for Hurbanovo A2 10 9 HU 8 7 6 B1 5 Based on the SHMI data, modified by M. Lapin et al. 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 4 Measurements for 1861-2000, scenarios for 2001-2100 From year 1000 to year 1860 variations in average surface temperature of the Northern Hemisphere are shown (corresponding data from the Southern Hemisphere not available) reconstructed from proxy data (tree rings, corals, ice cores, and historical records). The line shows the 50-year average, the grey region the 95% confidence limit in the annual data. Climate Change ? 2012 By IPCC AR4, 2007 10-year mean warming in 2090-2099 compared to 1980-1999, A1B SRES +1,0 °C SYR AR4, IPCC 2007 +3,0 °C GLOBAL EMISSION OF FOSSIL CARBON IN MILLION TON IN 1951-2004 (PRELIMINARY IN 2005-2007, SCENARIOS IN 2008-2010 Annual global emission of fossil Carbon into atmosphere in milion tonnes according to inventory of all sources until 2004 (scenarios until 2010) 12000 11500 11000 10500 10000 9500 9000 8500 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 By: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6335 Scenario 2010 2000 1990 1980 1970 1960 1950 1940 1930 1920 1910 1900 1890 1880 1870 1860 1850 1840 1830 1820 1810 1800 1790 1780 1770 1760 1750 Inventory, heighten by 5% is possible EMISSION OF FOSSIL CARBON IN MILLION TONNES IN 2004, CONTRIBUTION OF SELECTED COUNTRIES (USA, CHINA, RUSSIA ... – totally in mil. t. and per capita in kg) 6000 Enission of fossil Carbon in 2004, by: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, U.S. Department of Energy 5000 Mil.t. C 4000 kg C p/c 3000 2000 1000 Slovakia Bangladesh Hungary Czech R. Poland Australia Ukraine France S. Africa Italy S. Korea UK Canada Germany Japan India Russia China USA 0 PER CAPITA RESPONSIBILITY FOR CURENT ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 – INDEX from 0 to 100 CANADA ~ 60, SLOVAKIA ~ 25, INDIA ~ 5 By Wikipedia Global Carbon Cycle in 1990 (in GtC, IPCC 2007) Anthropogenic share (red), deposition into fossil reservoirs only 0.5 GtC annually AR4 supposes increase of continental net sink into fossils up to 0.9 ±0.6 GtC in 2000-2005 9.0 Gt in 2008 Uncertainty 101 increase 140 decrease Fossil Carbon Emission in million tons (Kyoto Protocol) Emisia fosílneho uhlíka v mil. ton - krajiny podľa zoznamu Kjótskeho protokolu 9500 9000 Annex B 8500 8000 Non-Annex B 7500 Total 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 ACCORDING TO KYOTO A DECREASE BY 5,2% FOR 60 ANNEX B COUNTRIES IN 2010, IN DEVELOPED ONES BY ABOUT 8% 1500 1000 By Bali IPCC Conference, 2008 500 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 0 Summary of GHGs emissions by sectors in 2000 Source: Wikipedia RADIATIVE FORCING IN EARTH’S CLIMATE SYSTEM SINCE 1750 (ANTHROPOGENIC AND NATURAL) By IPCC 2007 Positive forcing of greenhouse gases increase in the atmosphere Mostly negative forcing of aerosols and land use change Comparison of anthropogene forcing with the Solar constant rise since 1750 Solar Anthropogene net (total) 2008 ? 2007 ? Preliminary in 2005 & 2006 Assessment in 2007 & 2008 Global emission of fossil carbon in bill. tones By Global Carbon Project (NOAA 2007) WHAT CAN WE DO? ¾ Is the greenhouse effect increase caused by human activities ? ¾ Can we separate the natural and anthropogenic impacts ? ¾ Is climate warming in Central Europe positive or not ? ¾ Can we mitigate Climate Change by GHGs emission reduction? ¾ Can we calculate the cost/benefit in case of mitigation ? ¾ How long in advance we need to prepare adapting measures ? ¾ Can we calculate the cost/benefit in case of adaptation ? ¾ Is there any possibility to assess Climate Change impacts on socio/economic sectors, sustainable development, natural ecosystems and on vanishing of biological species ? ¾ Is the economic effectiveness more important than the natural biodiversity or the healthy humans and ecosystems ? ¾ Other questions ? ¾ Can Climate Change cause great number of refugees ? REAL OPTIONS ? ¾ Energy consumption is in SK 1.6 times higher compared to EU15 ! ¾ New technologies and equipments can save > 20% energy ! ¾ No significant investments are needed in household to save ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ ¾ energy (heating, hot water use, air condition, equipments) ! New transport devices can save > 20% energy ! Renewable energy sources can save > 20% of fossil fuels ! Recycling can save energy, raw materials and decrease CO2 and other GHGs emission ! Goods with long guarantee period can save energy and raw materials, that means also reduction of GHGs emission ! Discipline at private and professional activities ! CCS is not discussed in this presentation ¾ Other options ? ¾ Each country has its own possibilities to save energy and raw materials and to reduce GHGs emission (nuclear energy….) ! And now some impacts - AIR HUMIDITY AND AIR TEMPERATURE Dependence of air humidity variables on air temperature at about 1000 hPa 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Di is saturation deficit, Potential evaporation Eo = k.Di (simplified because of data), where k is some coefficient e* [hPa] a* [g/m3] s* [g/kg] 50% e* D4 = 36,9 hPa D3 = 21,2 hPa The higher is the water content in the atmosphere, the higher are potential precipitation totals D2 = 11,7 hPa U = 50% D1 = 6,1 hPa Prepared by: M.Lapin. -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35T[°C] 40 Trend of Palmer drought index since 1901 (IPCC 2007) Wet Dry Possible changes in 30-minute precipitation totals (R) in dependence on increase of saturated specific humidity (s*) at 900 hPa and vertical velocity (w) R [mm] 150 Závislosť úhrnu zrážok (R) za 30 min. od nasýtenej mernej vlhkosti vzduchu (s*) na hladine 900 hPa a počiatočnej priemernej vertikálnej rýchlosti (w) pri usporiadaných výstupných pohyboch 140 Up to 2100 130 rise of s* by 3.2 g.kg-1 120 110 R [mm]; w=4 m/s 100 R [mm]; w=2 m/s 90 dR * * Another R increase due to rise of w and turbulence R [mm]; w=1 m/s 80 1951-80 70 By: M.Lapin et al., 2004 60 50 40 30 20 10 -1 s* [g.kg ] 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Slovakia - Annual maximum in 5-day precipitation totals with 100-year return period Possible increase by 20-40% up to 2100 Totals [mm] below By M.Lapin et al., 2002 and more CHANGE IN SEASONAL ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT By: Arctic Climate Research at the University of Illinois Satellite monitoring since 1979 Possible no Summer ice in 2035 (2050) 2007 CHANGE OF SNOW COVER DAYS IN SLOVAKIA dN[%] Increase of number of days with snow cover at increase of precipitation by 10% 20 SW lowlands 15 Lowlands 10 Hollows, valleys 5 Mountains 0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII WIN CHY dN[%] Decrease of number of days with snow cover at increase of mean temperature by 1 °C 0 SW lowlands -5 Lowlands -10 Hollows, valleys -15 Mountains -20 -25 -30 -35 By M.Lapin et al., 1997 -40 -45 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII WIN CHY CONCLUSIONS ¾ Climate change must be correctly defined, scientifically analyzed and the results properly applied by involved users, otherwise cannot be reliable any conclusions ¾ Climate change impacts are expected mostly as negative and only partly as positive (differently in some regions) ¾ The return periods of dangerous weather design values are based on past observations, it is sure that they will change ¾ Adapting and mitigation options are based on correct impacts analysis, differentiate of natural climate changes from the anthropogenic ones and analysis of cost/benefit ¾ Reduction of the atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration is the only possibility how to slow down the rapid global air temperature increase and to reduce the consequent climate change impacts Thank You for the Attention Further details on the website: www.dmc.fmph.uniba.sk or use E-mail: [email protected] CO2NET EAST Workshop , Bratislava, March 3, 2009