Download climate changes, possible impacts and mitigation options

CLIMATE CHANGES,
POSSIBLE IMPACTS AND
MITIGATION OPTIONS
Milan LAPIN
Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics,
Comenius University, Bratislava, SLOVAKIA
SLOVAK NATIONAL CLIMATE PROGRAM
Reviewer of IPCC Reports AR4 (2007) and TAR (2001)
[email protected] , www.dmc.fmph.uniba.sk
CO2NET EAST Workshop , Bratislava, March 3, 2009
AIR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
ON EARTH CONTINENTS IN AVERAGE
DURING ALL GEOLEOGIC PERIODS
Quarternary
Millions of years
Rapid cycles
Cold
+4
°C
Warm
Great uncertainties
Dry
The warmest
and the driest
period
Wet
Present
Holocene
By: Frakes, 1979
ABSTRACT
¾ Slovakia, as a member state of the EU, is committed to an 8 %
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
reduction of GHGs emissions compared to the base year 1990
A reduction of total anthropogenic emissions of GHGs, stated as
CO2 equivalent – 30 % in 2002 compared 1990, small rise up to 2008
In Dec. 2005 the 4th Slovak National Communication on Climate
Change was issued by the Slovak Ministry of Environment
In 1991 – established the Czecho-Slovak National Climate Program
The period 1991-2008 – significant in exceptional weather events
occurrence in Slovakia (heat waves, flash floods, drought…)
Very reliable time series of daily data measured by the Observatory
at Hurbanovo, 115 m a.s.l., SW Slovakia, other 33 station since 1951
and 3 since 1881, about 100 reliable rain gage series since 1901
Nine GCMs outputs from 5 World Modeling Centers applied –
CGCM2/3 and GISS 1998 the most frequently used, 15 other tested
Water cycle, water resources, water management, agriculture, field
ecosystems, forestry, forest ecosystems – impacts studied
Mitigation measures and their co-ordination with adaptation options
CO2NET EAST Workshop , Bratislava, March 3, 2009
VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE,
IMPACTS, ADAPTING AND MITIGATION
OPTIONS
¾ Slovak Republic’s Country Study (U.S. Country Studies Program,
55 countries) in 1994-1997
¾ Slovak Republic’s National Climate Program (SR NCP) in 19912001 and 2008 (funded by the Ministry of Environment – MZP SR),
in 2002-2007 funded only by the Slovak Hydrometeorological
Institute (SHMI)
¾ Inventory of greenhouse gases emission in Slovakia is
coordinated by the MZP SR and SHMI since 1993
¾ Other scientific projects, coordinated by collaborating institutions
(funded mostly by the Ministry of Land Management, Ministry of
Education and by the Slovak Grant Agency -VEGA)
¾ These sources were a base for the preparing of Slovak National
Communication on Climate Change approved by the Slovak
Government in 1995, 1997, 2001, 2005, (2009?)
IMPACTS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECTORS
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
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¾
¾
Climate in Slovakia (monitoring, analysis, scenarios…)
Hydrological Cycle (runoff, evaporation, ground water…)
Water Economy (management of water supply…)
Water Resources (drinking water…)
Agricultural Economy (management, plant production)
Agricultural Ecosystems (pest, diseases, weeds…)
Forestry (management…)
Forest Ecosystems (instability, pest, diseases…)
Biodiversity (instability, new species…)
Contacted Sectors – not participating
¾
¾
¾
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Recreation and Tourism
Health and Hygiene
Economy, Civil engineering and Energy supply
Transport and Telecommunications
SCIENTIFIC THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE
¾“Climate Change” – anthropogenic influence
¾Physics, chemistry and biology of climate change
and natural climate changes
¾Socio-economic cross-correlation and impacts
¾Natural ecosystems and climate change
¾Positive and negative feedbacks and forcing
¾Misinterpretations by some groups of experts
¾CLIMATE CHANGE MONITORING
IN SLOVAKIA AS THE FIRST STEP
SLOVAK REPUBLIC – 49 036 sq. km, 440 m mean elevation,
5.4 mil. inhabitants, 747 mm mean precipitation, 7.5 °C mean temp.
50% agricultural land, 41% forest land, 2% water area, 3% built-up areas, 5.4% above 1000 m
The High Tatras
Hurbanovo
Observatory at the Lomnický štít, 2635 m a.s.l.
Photo: M.Lapin, 2004
Hurbanovo Observatory, 115 m a.s.l., since 1871
Photo: M.Lapin, 1989
PRECIPITATION STATIONS NETWORK IN SLOVAKIA
Figure 3 - N ational O bser ving Syste m
Part D of the Surface Sub-system
607 stations in 1951-2000,
557 of higher quality
203 in 1901-2000,
100 of higher quality
About 1000 hydrological station is available for the
climate change impacts analysis in Slovakia
100 - 115 climatic stations in 1951-2000
35 complete stations in 1961-2000
Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute
D : P artial O bserving System for C limatology 3 complete in 1881-2000
only stat ions w ith the R ainfall Programm e ( 655 )
ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (dT) AND PRECIPITATION (RN) DEVIATIONS
SLOVAKIA 1901-2008
dTN[°C]
3
M.Lapin by the SHMI data
2
y = 0,0001x - 0,0023x - 0,36
2
r = 0,2954
2
3 stations
1
RN[%]
160
Trend +1.41 °C
dTN
145
0
130
-1
-2
Trend –3.38%
-3
115
RN
-4
100
-5
-6
85
-7
2
y = 0,0013x - 0,18x + 104,8
2
r = 0,0134
-8
203 stations
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
1960
1955
1950
1945
1940
1935
1930
1925
1920
1915
1910
1905
70
1900
-9
SCIENTIFIC THEORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS SOME EXAMPLES
Most of these information are available on
our web site www.dmc.fmph.uniba.sk
Annual values of Earth’s surface and Atmosphere energetic balance
Albedo
Solar
Radiation
Greenhouse gases in the Atmosphere,
H2O Atmospheric window for λ = 8.5-12.5 μm
Infra Red
A
T
M
O
S
P
H
E
R
E
By IPCC 2007
EARTH’S SURFACE
It is important, that
total IR radiation can
be absorbed in lower
layer of the
atmosphere, if some
GHG increases its
concentration.
Normalized
curves
The atmosphere
produce IR radiation
as well, and the
absorption process
continues up to the
top of the
atmosphere.
Wikipedia
The higher is GHGs
concentration in the
atmosphere, the
greater is increase of
surface atmosphere
temperature.
By IPCC AR4, WG1, CH 2, Figure 1.
Natural forcing in the Earth’s Climate
System – Solar radiation
Maunder
Minimum
By IPCC, 2006
By Wikipedia
VARIABILITY OF ANNUAL TEMPERATURE DEVIATIONS FROM THE
1961-1990 AVERAGE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IN 1850-2008
(Sea surface T a and Land air T, HADLEY, CRU UK DATA)
dT [°C] Northern Hemisphere - sea surface temperature (SST2) and continental air temperature (NH Land)
1,2
1,0
deviation from 1961-1990 average, 30-year moving means as trend (NH-30 for 1979-2008 is in 1994)
NH Land
By http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/ elaborated M.Lapin
SST2
0,8
NH_30
0,6
SST2-30
Solar radiation
increase
Sulphate
aerosols
El Nino
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
Rapid CO2
increase
-0,6
-0,8
Different Sea surface T and Land air T trends
1850
1855
1860
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
-1,0
CLIMATE CHANGE
SCENARIOS SUMMARY
• Scenarios based on the Atmosphere General Circulation Models GCMs (Atmosphere-Ocean Models at present)
• Scenarios based on analogues – data from instrumental
measurements or from paleoclimatic reconstruction
• Incremental scenarios – suitable combination of air temperature and
precipitation increments (T increase by 1, 2, 3, 4 °C, R changes by 5,
10, 15, 20%) – acceptable for impact model testing only
• Stochastic weather generator based time series as scenarios
• Combined scenarios – 1. Step: selection of reliable T (temperature),
R (precipitation) and s (specific humidity) GCMs scenarios and
2. Step: calculation of analogs for other climatic/hydrologic
elements using correlation/regression and simple modeling –
scenarios for whole distribution range – Priority in Slovakia
• Scenarios for time frames, time series, extremes...
• Based on these scenarios the impacts in socio-economic sectors
More details in: www.dmc.fmph.uniba.sk
4 CCCM2000 & GISS98 AND 9 CGCM3.1 GRID
POINTS ROUND SLOVAKIA USED
m a.s.l.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
ALTITUDE
CCCM GISS (m a.s.l.)
A
616
361
B
554
386
C
531
366
D
566
345
561
364
C
A
D
B
306 m
239 m
483 m
474 m
337 m
463 m
193 m
200 m
216 m
IPCC SRES SCENARIOS
¾ Outputs of the CGCM3.1 model contain results by
SRES A2 and SRES B1 emission scenarios
assessments
¾ The first one represent pessimistic supposition of
mankind behavior up to 2100 and the second the
optimistic one (IPCC 2000)
¾ Emission of fossil Carbon is supposed as 28.9 Gt
by SRES A2 (cumulative 1773 Gt) and 5.2 Gt by
SRES B1 (cumulative 989 Gt) in 2100.
¾ This difference is much more expressed in air
temperature scenarios after 2040
Emission
scenarios
A1, B1T,
A1F1, A2, B1,
B2 and older
IS92a
represent
different
ways of
Climate
Change
mitigation
Alternative scenarios prepared by 6 different centers
AIR TEMPERATURE SCENARIOS FOR HURBANOVO
T[°C] Growing period temperature scenarios for Hurbanovo, CGCM3.1, SRES A2, B1
24
23
22
21
20
CGCM3.1 daily data the in April-September
season modified for Hurbanovo
A2
No significant
changes in annual
precipitation totals
are expected
19
18
17
B1
16
15
HU
Based on the SHMI data, modified by M. Lapin et al.
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
14
CGCM3.1 – A2 scenario for daily temperature means
change up to 2100 (Hurbanovo, Apr.-Sept. season)
N[%]
20
1961-1990
18
1996-2025
16
2016-2045
14
2061-2090
12
2071-2100
By M. Lapin et al.
10
8
6
4
T
[°C]
2
36 - 38
34 - 36
30 -32
28 - 30
26 - 28
24 - 26
22 - 24
20 - 22
18 - 20
16 - 18
14 - 16
12 - 14
10 - 12
8 - 10
6-8
4-6
2-4
0-2
-2 - 0
-4 - -2
0
RELATIVE HUMIDITY SCENARIOS FOR HURBANOVO
U[%] Growing period relative humidity scenarios, Hurbanovo, CGCM3.1, SRES A2, B1
78
75
HU
CGCM3.1 daily data the in April-September
season modified for Hurbanovo
72
69
66
63
A2
60
B1
Based on the SHMI data, modified by M. Lapin et al.
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
57
SATURATION DEFICIT SCENARIOS FOR HURBANOVO
D[hPa] Growing period saturation deficit scenarios, Hurbanovo, CGCM3.1, SRES A2, B1
12
11
CGCM3.1 daily data the in April-September
season modified for Hurbanovo
A2
10
9
HU
8
7
6
B1
5
Based on the SHMI data, modified by M. Lapin et al.
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
4
Measurements for
1861-2000, scenarios
for 2001-2100
From year 1000 to
year 1860 variations
in average surface
temperature of the
Northern Hemisphere
are shown
(corresponding data
from the Southern
Hemisphere not
available)
reconstructed from
proxy data (tree
rings, corals, ice
cores, and historical
records). The line
shows the 50-year
average, the grey
region the 95%
confidence limit in the
annual data.
Climate Change ?
2012
By IPCC AR4, 2007
10-year mean warming in 2090-2099 compared to 1980-1999, A1B SRES
+1,0 °C
SYR AR4, IPCC 2007
+3,0 °C
GLOBAL EMISSION OF FOSSIL CARBON IN MILLION TON IN 1951-2004
(PRELIMINARY IN 2005-2007, SCENARIOS IN 2008-2010
Annual global emission of fossil Carbon into atmosphere in milion tonnes
according to inventory of all sources until 2004 (scenarios until 2010)
12000
11500
11000
10500
10000
9500
9000
8500
8000
7500
7000
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
By: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6335
Scenario
2010
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
1880
1870
1860
1850
1840
1830
1820
1810
1800
1790
1780
1770
1760
1750
Inventory, heighten
by 5% is possible
EMISSION OF FOSSIL CARBON IN MILLION TONNES IN 2004,
CONTRIBUTION OF SELECTED COUNTRIES (USA, CHINA,
RUSSIA ... – totally in mil. t. and per capita in kg)
6000
Enission of fossil Carbon in 2004,
by: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
Center, U.S. Department of Energy
5000
Mil.t. C
4000
kg C p/c
3000
2000
1000
Slovakia
Bangladesh
Hungary
Czech R.
Poland
Australia
Ukraine
France
S. Africa
Italy
S. Korea
UK
Canada
Germany
Japan
India
Russia
China
USA
0
PER CAPITA RESPONSIBILITY FOR CURENT
ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 – INDEX from 0 to 100
CANADA ~ 60, SLOVAKIA ~ 25,
INDIA ~ 5
By Wikipedia
Global Carbon Cycle in 1990 (in GtC, IPCC 2007)
Anthropogenic share (red), deposition into fossil reservoirs only 0.5 GtC annually
AR4 supposes increase of continental net sink into fossils up to 0.9 ±0.6 GtC in 2000-2005
9.0 Gt in 2008
Uncertainty
101 increase
140 decrease
Fossil Carbon Emission in million tons (Kyoto Protocol)
Emisia fosílneho uhlíka v mil. ton - krajiny podľa zoznamu Kjótskeho protokolu
9500
9000
Annex B
8500
8000
Non-Annex B
7500
Total
7000
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
ACCORDING TO KYOTO A DECREASE BY 5,2% FOR 60 ANNEX B
COUNTRIES IN 2010, IN DEVELOPED ONES BY ABOUT 8%
1500
1000
By Bali IPCC Conference, 2008
500
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
Summary
of GHGs
emissions
by sectors
in 2000
Source:
Wikipedia
RADIATIVE FORCING IN EARTH’S CLIMATE SYSTEM
SINCE 1750 (ANTHROPOGENIC AND NATURAL)
By IPCC 2007
Positive forcing of
greenhouse gases
increase in the
atmosphere
Mostly negative
forcing of aerosols
and land use
change
Comparison of
anthropogene
forcing with the
Solar constant rise
since 1750
Solar
Anthropogene
net (total)
2008 ?
2007 ?
Preliminary in 2005 & 2006
Assessment in 2007 & 2008
Global emission of fossil carbon in bill. tones
By Global Carbon Project (NOAA 2007)
WHAT CAN WE DO?
¾ Is the greenhouse effect increase caused by human activities ?
¾ Can we separate the natural and anthropogenic impacts ?
¾ Is climate warming in Central Europe positive or not ?
¾ Can we mitigate Climate Change by GHGs emission reduction?
¾ Can we calculate the cost/benefit in case of mitigation ?
¾ How long in advance we need to prepare adapting measures ?
¾ Can we calculate the cost/benefit in case of adaptation ?
¾ Is there any possibility to assess Climate Change impacts on
socio/economic sectors, sustainable development, natural
ecosystems and on vanishing of biological species ?
¾ Is the economic effectiveness more important than the natural
biodiversity or the healthy humans and ecosystems ?
¾ Other questions ?
¾ Can Climate Change cause great number of refugees ?
REAL OPTIONS ?
¾ Energy consumption is in SK 1.6 times higher compared to EU15 !
¾ New technologies and equipments can save > 20% energy !
¾ No significant investments are needed in household to save
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
energy (heating, hot water use, air condition, equipments) !
New transport devices can save > 20% energy !
Renewable energy sources can save > 20% of fossil fuels !
Recycling can save energy, raw materials and decrease CO2 and
other GHGs emission !
Goods with long guarantee period can save energy and raw
materials, that means also reduction of GHGs emission !
Discipline at private and professional activities !
CCS is not discussed in this presentation
¾ Other options ?
¾ Each country has its own possibilities to save energy and raw
materials and to reduce GHGs emission (nuclear energy….) !
And now some impacts -
AIR HUMIDITY AND AIR TEMPERATURE
Dependence of air humidity variables on air temperature at about 1000 hPa
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Di is saturation deficit,
Potential evaporation Eo = k.Di
(simplified because of data),
where k is some coefficient
e* [hPa]
a* [g/m3]
s* [g/kg]
50% e*
D4 = 36,9 hPa
D3 = 21,2 hPa
The higher is the water content
in the atmosphere, the higher
are potential precipitation totals
D2 = 11,7 hPa
U = 50%
D1 = 6,1 hPa
Prepared by: M.Lapin.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35T[°C] 40
Trend of Palmer drought index since 1901 (IPCC 2007)
Wet
Dry
Possible changes in 30-minute precipitation totals
(R) in dependence on increase of saturated specific
humidity (s*) at 900 hPa and vertical velocity (w)
R [mm]
150
Závislosť úhrnu zrážok (R) za 30 min. od nasýtenej mernej vlhkosti vzduchu (s*) na hladine 900 hPa
a počiatočnej priemernej vertikálnej rýchlosti (w) pri usporiadaných výstupných pohyboch
140
Up to 2100
130
rise of s* by 3.2 g.kg-1
120
110
R [mm]; w=4 m/s
100
R [mm]; w=2 m/s
90
dR
*
* Another R increase due
to rise of w and turbulence
R [mm]; w=1 m/s
80
1951-80
70
By: M.Lapin et al., 2004
60
50
40
30
20
10
-1
s* [g.kg ]
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Slovakia - Annual maximum in 5-day
precipitation totals with 100-year return period
Possible increase by 20-40% up to 2100
Totals
[mm]
below
By M.Lapin et al., 2002
and more
CHANGE IN SEASONAL ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT
By: Arctic Climate Research
at the University of Illinois
Satellite monitoring
since 1979
Possible no Summer
ice in 2035 (2050)
2007
CHANGE OF SNOW COVER DAYS IN SLOVAKIA
dN[%]
Increase of number of days with snow cover at increase of precipitation by 10%
20
SW lowlands
15
Lowlands
10
Hollows, valleys
5
Mountains
0
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
WIN
CHY
dN[%] Decrease of number of days with snow cover at increase of mean temperature by 1 °C
0
SW lowlands
-5
Lowlands
-10
Hollows, valleys
-15
Mountains
-20
-25
-30
-35
By M.Lapin et al., 1997
-40
-45
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
WIN
CHY
CONCLUSIONS
¾
Climate change must be correctly defined, scientifically
analyzed and the results properly applied by involved users,
otherwise cannot be reliable any conclusions
¾
Climate change impacts are expected mostly as negative
and only partly as positive (differently in some regions)
¾
The return periods of dangerous weather design values are
based on past observations, it is sure that they will change
¾
Adapting and mitigation options are based on correct
impacts analysis, differentiate of natural climate changes
from the anthropogenic ones and analysis of cost/benefit
¾
Reduction of the atmospheric greenhouse gases concentration is the only possibility how to slow down the rapid
global air temperature increase and to reduce the
consequent climate change impacts
Thank You for the Attention
Further details on the website:
www.dmc.fmph.uniba.sk
or use
E-mail: [email protected]
CO2NET EAST Workshop , Bratislava, March 3, 2009