Download Climate Science Discussions_Day1_Nov2013

Adviser Workshop November 2013 – Small Group Discussions
on Climate Science Messages & Gaps (Day 1)
Knowledge Gaps
 Climate ‘Trigger points’ that require a major think and change in the farming system
 Know what the skeptics argue
 What it means to a farmer with different scenarios- e.g. sowing 1 month later, harvest earlier
 Local info/ impacts that can be used to understand/ plan for events- extreme events we already
experience will happen more often- be more flexible/ adaptable systems
 Access to localised date to make tactical and strategic decisions (eg plant date- long vs short GS
varieties or not doing)
 What are others doing? Practical examples to help sell this
 Detail on impact to practical change specific to ag
 Others experiences- success and failure
 What will impact on farm profitability
 What can we realistically and economically do?
 How do we measure our carbon footprint in and out and what can we do about it?
 What will be the ability of any changes make in agriculture to effect change in climatesequestration/ mitigation of greenhouse gas composition
 We must address the gap between perception and reality
 Temperature duration data
 Seasonal shift/ changes and correlation with temperature increase
 How do temperature changes impact phenology and physiology
 How to get the message across
 Conditions for N2O emissions- now much N2O for how long
 C02 release with disc vs current
 Feed additives for livestock to decrease methane emissions
 How can we simply get CO2 from air to soil?
 Biochar
 Timber production
 Permanent veg/ plantings for CO2 sequestration
 Rainfall? (Timing/ intensity/ quantity)
 Temp?
 Local impact (Understanding not on a national scale, but locally)
Potential Application
 Cost benefits
 Look for the ‘win-wins’
 Benefit to my farm that will decrease greenhouse gas
 Drill down on current practice and what can be changed- eg ‘fuel chips’
 Buy wet country!
 Farmers- more variability
 Where will still be variability
 Still do good things for farming
 Awareness raising of climate science- temperature, CO2
 Development of tools to enable change in current practice is now
 More confinement feeding to decrease bare ground
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Move farm to Tasmania/ Kununurra
Crop types- summer/ opportunity/ perennial
Money based
Emission reduction on farm
We educate the farmers to educate the general population
Help our clients manage extremes better
Knowledge/ understanding important
Adaption? Will it suffice?
Younger people are going to see most of the effects
In annual planning- variable seasons
Adaption of changes
Simplify the message to ‘real experiences’ eg- climate shift I MR earlier
Things will continue to happen in this field (ie climate change action) so need to keep informed
Choices will impact on kids and kids kids
Key Messages
 Real
 Man made
 Time lag- long time to ‘recover’ – Will we ever?
 Temperature increase
 Science says this is real
 General public still skeptical
 What difference will we really make?
 Spring temperature increase
 Frost and incidence
 RF decrease
 Lot of evidence available now
 CO2 levels changing in pressure pattern- sea temperature
 Possible impacts on crop and animal production
 Science- pressure pattern
 Temperature is increasing
 Variability of rainfall is happening
 Tropics are expanding by ½ a degree per decade
 Highest CO2 levels ever
 Climate change is happening
 The info is unequivocal
 Agriculture must be a net carbon sink
 There is a lag time- we are doing this for the long term
 Using analogies (eg car in sun) is a useful delivery method
 Warmer climate doesn’t mean less frost
 Climate change means more extremes
 Only 30-50% of the population believes in/ acknowledges climate change
 Climate change is happening (science vs opinion)
 CO2 relationship to temperature
 Temperature more accurate than rainfall (More variable)
 How to incorporate climate change into risk management
 Extremes- temperate/ rain etc increasing impact on farming? Variability
 Lag effect is a real problem- takes time to see the worst outcomes
 Lag period- significant
 Its getting warmer- climate change is real
 Natural variability clouds the message
 Change is inevitable
 Rainfall change harder to predict than temperature change
 Greater extremes (more variable)
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Climate moving north
Greater confidence in measuring change and impact
General population lagging behind the science
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