Download Evaluation of the ASARECA

Eastern and Central Africa Programme for Agricultural Policy Analysis
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A Programme of the Association for Strengthening Agricultural
Research in Eastern and Central Africa
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Electronic Newsletter
17 November 2006--Volume 9 Number 22
NEWS
28th November – 1st December:
ASARECA-ECAPAPA/ East Africa Seed Committee (EASCOM) Annual
General Meeting, Entebbe, Uganda.
30th November – 4th December:
ASARECA-ECAPAPA/CIAT-PRGA Leadership Training Workshop on
capacity building in participatory research and gender analysis in the
NARS of ASARECA, Entebbe, Uganda.
Directory update:
We are in the process of updating and printing this year’s Stakeholders’ Directory.
Please let us know before 30 November if there are any changes on your contact
details. Of interest is your station of work, e-mail, phone and fax contact.
Professor Gabriel Kiwuwa has been appointed Prof. Emeritus of Makerere University, one of the
pioneer universities in agricultural research in the region. Prof. Kiwuwa is one of the first four
academics to get this title in the history of Makerere University. It is in recognition of his
continued involvement in teaching, attracting research funding and producing publications after
his official retirement. ASARECA/ECAPAPA congratulates Prof. Kiwuwa upon this achievement.
CLIMATE CHANGE: SUSTAINING NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL POLICY RESPONSE
In July 2005, Britain commissioned a climate change review to understand more comprehensively the nature
of the economic challenges and how they can be met, in the U K and globally. The review which was
released in October this year reveals overwhelming scientific evidence indicating that climate change is a
serious global threat. The release of the report coincided with the 12 th UN Conference of the Parties to the
UN Convention on Climate Change held in Nairobi, Kenya from November 6 – 17, 2006. This convention
brought together over 6,000 delegates from across the globe. Although this report was not specifically a
subject of discussion at the Nairobi convention, the issues raised bear a lot of similarities with the findings of
the review. In this issue of the newsletter, ECAPAPA would like to share with our stakeholders some of the
concerns and policy recommendations raised by the review.
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Climate change will affect the basic elements of life for people around the world–access to water, food
production, health, and the environment. Hundreds of millions of people could suffer hunger, water shortages
and coastal flooding as the world warms.
Using the results from formal economic models, the review estimates that if no action is taken now, the
overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5 percent of global Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) consistently each year. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account,
the estimates of damage could rise to 20 percent of GDP or more. In contrast, the costs of action–reducing
greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change– can be limited to around 1 percent
of global GDP each year.
The investments in the next 10-20 years would have a profound effect on the climate in the second half of
this century and in the next. Actions now and over the coming decades could create risks of major disruption
to economic and social activity, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic
depression of the first half of the 20th century. And it would be difficult or impossible to reverse these
changes.
Because climate change is a global problem, the response to it must be international. It must be based on a
shared vision of long-term goals and agreement on frameworks that will accelerate action over the next
decade, and must build on mutually reinforcing approaches at national, regional and international level.
Impact on growth and development
If no action is taken to reduce emissions, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could
double its pre-industrial level as early as 2035, virtually committing people to a global average temperature
rise of over 2°C. In the longer term, there would be more than a 50 percent chance that the temperature rise
would exceed 5°C. This rise would be very dangerous indeed; it is equivalent to the change in average
temperatures from the last ice age to today. Such a radical change in the physical geography of the world
must lead to major changes in the human geography – where people live and how they live their lives.
Even at more moderate levels of warming, all the evidence – from detailed studies of regional and sectoral
impacts of changing weather patterns, through to economic models of the global effects–shows that climate
change will have serious impacts on world output, on human life and on the environment and all countries will
be affected.
Climate change is a grave threat to the developing world and a major obstacle to continued poverty reduction
across its many dimensions. First, developing regions are at a geographic disadvantage: they are already
warmer, on average, than developed regions, and they also suffer from high rainfall variability. As a result,
further warming will bring countries in the developing region high costs and few benefits. Second, developing
countries - in particular the poorest - are heavily dependent on agriculture, the most climate-sensitive of all
economic sectors, and suffer from inadequate health provision and low-quality public services. Third, their
low incomes and vulnerabilities make adaptation to climate change particularly difficult. Because of these
vulnerabilities, climate change is likely to reduce further already low incomes and increase illness and death
rates.
Falling farm incomes will increase poverty and reduce the ability of households to invest in a better future,
forcing them to use up meager savings just to survive. At a national level, climate change will cut revenues
and raise spending needs, worsening public finances. Many developing countries are already struggling to
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cope with their current climate. Climatic shocks cause setbacks to economic and social development in
developing countries today even with temperature increases of less than 1°C. The impacts of unabated
climate change, - that is, increases of 3 or 4°C and upwards - will be to increase the risks and costs of these
events very highly.
Adaptation to climate change – that is, taking steps to build resilience and minimize costs– is essential. It is
no longer possible to prevent the climate change that will take place over the next two to three decades, but it
is still possible to protect our societies and economies from its impacts to some extent–for example, by
providing better information, improved planning and more climate-resilient crops and infrastructure.
Adaptation will cost tens of billions of dollars a year in developing countries alone, and will put still further
pressure on already scarce resources. Adaptation efforts, particularly in developing countries, should be
accelerated.
Stabilization: At what cost?
Emissions have been, and continue to be, driven by economic growth; yet stabilization of greenhouse-gas
concentrations in the atmosphere is feasible and consistent with continued growth. The costs of stabilizing
the climate are significant but manageable; delay would be dangerous and much more costly. The risks of
the worst impacts of climate change can be substantially reduced if greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere
can be stabilized between 450 and 550 parts per million (ppm) carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). The current
level is 430ppm CO2e today, and it is rising at more than 2ppm each year. Stabilization in this range would
require emissions to be at least 25 percent below current levels by 2050, and perhaps much more.
Ultimately, stabilization–at whatever level–requires that annual emissions be brought down to more than 80
percent below current levels.
This is a major challenge, but sustained long-term action can achieve it at costs that are low in comparison to
the risks of inaction. Central estimates of the annual costs of achieving stabilization between 500 and 550
ppm CO2e are around one percent of global GDP, if strong action is taken now. Costs could be even lower
than that if there are major gains in efficiency, or if the strong co-benefits, for example from reduced air
pollution, are measured. Costs will be higher if innovation in low-carbon technologies is slower than
expected, or if policy-makers fail to make the most of economic instruments that allow emissions to be
reduced whenever, wherever and however it is cheapest to do so. It would already be very difficult and costly
to aim to stabilize at 450ppm CO2e. If action is delayed, the opportunity to stabilize at 500-550ppm CO2e may
slip away.
Action on climate change is required across all countries, and it need not cap the aspirations for growth of
rich or poor countries. The costs of taking action are not evenly distributed across sectors or around the
world. Even if the rich world takes on responsibility for absolute cuts in emissions of 60-80 percent by 2050,
developing countries must take significant action too. But developing countries should not be required to bear
the full costs of this action alone, and they will not have to. Carbon markets in rich countries are already
beginning to deliver flows of finance to support low-carbon development, including through the Clean
Development Mechanism. A transformation of these flows is now required to support action on the scale
required.
Action on climate change will also create significant business opportunities, as new markets are created in
low-carbon energy technologies and other low-carbon goods and services. These markets could grow to be
worth hundreds of billions of dollars each year, and employment in these sectors will expand accordingly.
The world does not need to choose between averting climate change and promoting growth and
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development. Changes in energy technologies and in the structure of economies have created opportunities
to decouple growth from greenhouse gas emissions. Indeed, ignoring climate change will eventually damage
economic growth.
Tackling climate change is the pro-growth strategy for the longer term, and it can be done in a way that does
not cap the aspirations for growth of rich or poor countries. A range of options exists to cut emissions; strong,
deliberate policy action is required to motivate their take-up.
Emissions can be cut through increased energy efficiency, changes in demand, and through adoption of
clean power, heat and transport technologies. The power sector around the world would need to be at least
60 percent de-carbonized by 2050 for atmospheric concentrations to stabilize at or below 550ppm CO2e, and
deep emissions cuts will also be required in the transport sector.
Even with very strong expansion of the use of renewable energy and other low-carbon energy sources, fossil
fuels could still make up over half of global energy supply in 2050. Coal will continue to be important in the
energy mix around the world, including in fast-growing economies. Extensive carbon capture and storage will
be necessary to allow the continued use of fossil fuels without damage to the atmosphere.
Cuts in non-energy emissions, such as those resulting from deforestation and from agricultural and industrial
processes, are also essential. With strong, deliberate policy choices, it is possible to reduce emissions in
both developed and developing economies on the scale necessary for stabilization in the required range
while continuing to grow.
Climate change is the greatest market failure the world has ever seen, and it interacts with other market
imperfections. Three elements of policy are required for an effective global response. The first is the pricing
of carbon, implemented through tax, trading or regulation. The second is policy to support innovation and the
deployment of low-carbon technologies. And the third is action to remove barriers to energy efficiency, and to
inform, educate and persuade individuals about what they can do to respond to climate change.
Climate change demands an international response, based on a shared understanding of long-term goals
and agreement on frameworks for action. Many countries and regions are taking action already: the
European Union (EU), California and China for example are among those with the most ambitious policies
that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
and the Kyoto Protocol provide a basis for international co-operation, along with a range of partnerships and
other approaches. But more ambitious action is now required around the world.
Countries facing diverse circumstances will use different approaches to make their contribution to tackling
climate change. But action by individual countries is not enough. Each country, however large, is just a part
of the problem. It is essential to create a shared international vision of long-term goals, and to build the
international frameworks that will help each country to play its part in meeting these common goals.
Key elements of future international frameworks should include:
Emissions trading: The first element of policy is carbon pricing. Greenhouse gases are, in economic terms,
an externality: those who produce greenhouse-gas emissions are bringing about climate change, thereby
imposing costs on the world and on future generations, but they do not face the full consequences of their
actions themselves. Putting an appropriate price on carbon–explicitly through tax or trading, or implicitly
through regulation, means that people are faced with the full social cost of their actions. This will lead
individuals and businesses to switch away from high-carbon goods and services, and to invest in low-carbon
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alternatives. Economic efficiency points to the advantages of a common global carbon price: emissions
reductions will then take place wherever they are cheapest. Expanding and linking the growing number of
emissions trading schemes around the world is a powerful way to promote cost-effective reductions in
emissions and to bring forward action in developing countries: strong targets in rich countries could drive
flows amounting to tens of billions of dollars each year to support the transition to low-carbon development
paths.
Technology cooperation: The second element of climate-change policy is technology policy, covering the full
spectrum from research and development, to demonstration and early stage deployment. The development
and deployment of a wide range of low-carbon technologies is essential in achieving the deep cuts in
emissions that are needed. The private sector plays the major role in research and development (R&D) and
technology diffusion, but closer collaboration between government and industry will further stimulate the
development of a broad portfolio of low carbon technologies and reduce costs. Many low-carbon
technologies are currently more expensive than the fossil-fuel alternatives. Informal co-ordination as well as
formal agreements can boost the effectiveness of investments in innovation around the world. Globally,
support for energy R&D should at least double, and support for the deployment of new low-carbon
technologies should increase up to five-fold. International co-operation on product standards is a powerful
way to boost energy efficiency.
Action to reduce deforestation: Emissions from deforestation are very significant – they are estimated to
represent more than 18 percent of global emissions, a share greater than is produced by the global transport
sector. Action to preserve the remaining areas of natural forest is needed urgently. Large-scale pilot schemes
are required to explore effective approaches to combining national action and international support. Policies
on deforestation should be shaped and led by the nation where the particular forest stands. But those
countries should receive strong help from the international community, which benefits from their actions to
reduce deforestation. At a national level, defining property rights to forest land, and determining the rights
and responsibilities of landowners, communities and loggers, is key to effective forest management. This
should involve local communities, respect informal rights and social structures, work with development goals
and reinforce the process of protecting the forests.
Research carried out for this report indicates that the opportunity cost of forest protection in 8 countries
responsible for 70 per cent of emissions from land use could be around US $ 5 billion per annum initially,
although over time marginal costs would rise. Compensation from the international community should take
account of the opportunity costs of alternative uses of the land, the costs of administering and enforcing
protection, and the challenges of managing the political transition as established interests are displaced.
Carbon markets could play an important role in providing such incentives in the longer term. But there are
short-term risks of destabilizing the crucial process of strengthening existing strong carbon markets if
deforestation is integrated without agreements that strongly increase demand for emissions reductions.
These agreements must be based on an understanding of the scale of transfers likely to be involved. The
loss of natural forests around the world contributes more to global emissions each year than the transport
sector. Curbing deforestation is a highly cost-effective way to reduce emissions; large-scale international pilot
programmes to explore the best ways to do this could get underway very quickly.
Adaptation: Adaptation is the only response available for the impacts that will occur over the next several
decades before mitigation measures can have an effect. Unlike mitigation, adaptation will in most cases
provide local benefits, realized without long lead times. Therefore some adaptation will occur autonomously,
as individuals respond to market or environmental changes. Some aspects of adaptation, such as major
infrastructure decisions, will require greater foresight and planning. There are also some aspects of
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adaptation that require public goods delivering global benefits, including improved information about the
climate system and more climate-resilient crops and technologies. Quantitative information on the costs and
benefits of economy-wide adaptation is currently limited. Studies in climate-sensitive sectors point to many
adaptation options that will provide benefits in excess of cost. But at higher temperatures, the costs of
adaptation will rise sharply and the residual damages remain large. The poorest countries are most
vulnerable to climate change. It is essential that climate change be fully integrated into development policy,
and that rich countries honour their pledges to increase support through overseas development assistance.
International funding should also support improved regional information on climate change impacts, and
research into new crop varieties that will be more resilient to drought and flood.
The long version of this review is available at:
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm
This newsletter is an attempt to use e-communications to provide to a broad audience within and outside
Eastern and Central Africa a mechanism for distribution and exchange of information relevant to agricultural
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ECAPAPA is a regional programme of the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern
and Central Africa (ASARECA). ECAPAPA receives support from a number of organizations including,
BMZ/GTZ, EU, IDRC, SDC, and USAID. This newsletter is supported by a grant from the Swiss Agency for
Development and Cooperation (SDC). The editorial content of the newsletter is solely the responsibility of the
Co-ordinating Unit of ECAPAPA.
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