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PROJECT IDENTIFICATION FORM (PIF) PROJECT TYPE: Full-sized Project THE GEF TRUST FUND Submission Date: 7 September 2009 PART I: PROJECT IDENTIFICATION INDICATIVE CALENDAR* GEF PROJECT ID1: PROJECT DURATION:24 Milestones Expected Dates months mm/dd/yyyy GEF AGENCY PROJECT ID: Work Program (for FSP) 11/01/09 COUNTRY(IES): Albania, Algeria, Croatia, Egypt, Libya, CEO Endorsement/Approval 01/01/11 Morocco, Montenegro, and Tunisia. The Palestinian Authority Agency Approval Date 06/01/11 also participates. Implementation Start 08/01/11 PROJECT TITLE: Assessment of climate variability and Mid-term Evaluation (if 08/01/12 integration of adaptation measures into national strategies and planned) regional plans for ICZM in the Mediterranean. Project Closing Date 09/01/13 GEF AGENCY(IES): UNEP, (select), (select) * See guidelines for definition of milestones. OTHER EXECUTING PARTNER(S): UNEP Coordinating Unit for the Mediterranean Action Plan (UNEP/MAP), MAP’s Regional Activity Centers (RACs): Priority Actions Programme (PAP/RAC) and Blue Plan (BP/RAC); and Global Water Partnership Mediterranean (GWP-Med). GEF FOCAL AREA (S): International Waters GEF-4 STRATEGIC PROGRAM(s): SP1, SP3 NAME OF PARENT PROGRAM/UMBRELLA PROJECT (if applicable): Mediterranean Sustainable Development Program, (“Sustainable Med”) A. PROJECT FRAMEWORK Project Objective: The project will support the development of a region wide coordination to address climate variability in the Mediterranean basin to integrate adaptation measures into ICZM plans basin, supporting the implementation of the ICZM Protocol. Project Components 1. Development and implementatio n of Regional Database and Programme to monitor climate variability STA Expected Outcomes Expected Outputs 1.1. Achievement of a region wide agreement resulting in the development and implementation of a long term programme to monitor climate variability in the marine and coastal zone - programme and Regional monitoring programme developed including agreement on impact indicators2; Development of methods for integration of climate variability related environmental and socioeconomic indicators into ICZM strategies and plans; Agreed implementation plan developed including responsible institutions, financing etc; Current status of data and models in the Mediterranean analyzed, including the results of major regional research programs i.e Hymex3, Circe4, etc.; Identification of data and capacity gaps required to 1.2. Regional database available through web-based platform of all current data and reports available on Climate research in the Mediterranean Indicative GEF Financinga ($ M) a % 410,000 19 Indicative CoFinancinga ($ M) b % 1,700,000 Total ($) c =a + b 81 Based on Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment Joint European Environment Agency (EEA), European Commissions Joint Research Centre (JRC) and World Health Organization (WHO). 3 Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HYMEX) 4 CIRCE Integrated Project - Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment 2 PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 1 2,110,000 2. Assessment of climate variability and impacts studies of the Mediterranea n coastal zone 3. Regional Partnerships, policy support, stakeholder involvement, sharing of tools and methods and awareness raising STA region. monitor and track climate change variability and support models; and Dissemination of all project results through web-based platform (and integrated into Communication Strategy of the GEF Strategic Partnership for the Mediterranean Large Marine Ecosystem). 2.1 Assessment of climate variability in the Mediterranean coastal zone; Based on existing data, complimentary projects in the region, and data produced by the project: 2.2 Impact Studies on the vulnerability of the Mediterranean Sea natural and socioeconomic system in identified vulnerable areas TA 3.1. Network of collaboration and exchange for longterm policy development and promotion of adaptation tools, in support of the ICZM protocol including monitoring of climate variability impacts on the coastal zone and related exchange of best practices and lessons learned established 3.2. Enhanced capacity for the longterm monitoring of climate impacts in the coastal zone, and identification and implementation of appropriate adaptation measures required 4. Adaptation TA 4.1. Cost effective 620,000 28 1,600,000 72 2,220,000 National partnerships in participating countries established to ensure that ICZM and climate change considerations are tackled by competent national policy makers and experts on environmental, water, land and marine management issues; Mediterranean Platform of exchange experiences and best practices and the identification of most efficient and cost effective tools available; Increased awareness, forged partnerships and joint actions to support ICZM protocol ratification and implementation. Regional and National level training (min of 6) on policy and technical tools and options, modeling and technologies available through workshops and Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) training platform; Possible centers of Excellence in Mediterranean region identified and strengthened for assessing climate variability; 410,000 21 1,500,000 79 1,910,000 Based on outputs of 629,045 30 1,500,000 70 2,129,045 Regional analysis of sealevel rise and storm surges, changes in water characteristics, marine acidification – vulnerable areas/hotspots identified, including river deltas; Climate change models applied at finer resolution in a min of 2 coastal zone areas (cofinanced) and results analyzed; Environmental and economic impacts to coastal communities, water quality and availability, marine and coastal biodiversity and fisheries assessed in 2-5 critical areas and responsive actions identified. PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 2 measures identified and plan for their implementatio n developed and sustainable adaptation measures identified to mitigate priority risks in the coastal zone (done in coordination with National Communications teams working on vulnerability and impact analysis.) 4.2. Implementation arrangements for adaptation measure defined in partnership with stakeholders in support of the implementation of the ICZM Protocol Components 2 and 3 identification of a full suite of adaptation measures needed in the priority areas/hotspots; Development of standard methods and tools for integration of adaptation measures into national ICZM planning and practices in synergy with other related national plans (IWRM, NSSD, CCA, etc); Awareness raising and training of Policy makers in participating countries on adaptation measures and methods –; National agreements on the critical adaptation measures to be included in national ICZM strategies, in synergy with other related national plans (IWRM, NSSD, CCA, etc); 3 regional/local level plans completed incorporating climate variability adaptation measures, and ready for implementation; Report on priority adaptation measures to address climate variability in critical areas, including mechanisms for their implementation and funding options. 5. Project management Total project costs 229,500 25 700,000 75 929,500 2,298,54 5 25 7,000,000 75 9,298,545 B. INDICATIVE CO-FINANCING FOR THE PROJECT BY SOURCE and by NAME (in parenthesis) if available, ($) Sources of Co-financing Project Government Contribution GEF Agency(ies) Bilateral Aid Agency(ies) Multilateral Agency(ies) Private Sector NGO Others Type of Co-financing Unknown at this stage (select) Unknown at this stage Unknown at this stage (select) Unknown at this stage (select) Total Co-financing Project 4,500,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 500,000 7,000,000 C. INDICATIVE FINANCING PLAN SUMMARY FOR THE PROJECT ($) Previous Project Preparation Amount (a) GEF financing Co-financing Total Project (b) 0 0 0 2,298,545 7,000,000 9,298,545 PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) Total c=a+b 2,298,545 7000,000 9,298,545 Agency Fee 229,855 229,855 3 D. GEF RESOURCES REQUESTED BY AGENCY (IES), FOCAL AREA(S) AND COUNTRY(IES)1 GEF Agency Country Name/ Focal Area Global UNEP International Waters Mediterranean (select) (select) Total GEF Resources (in $) Project (a) Agency Fee (b)2 Total c=a+b 2,298,545 229,855 2,528,400 2,298,545 229,855 2,528,400 1 No need to provide information for this table if it is a single focal area, single country and single GEF Agency project. 2 Relates to the project and any previous project preparation funding that have been provided and for which no Agency fee has been requested from Trustee. PART II: PROJECT JUSTIFICATION A. STATE THE ISSUE, HOW THE PROJECT SEEKS TO ADDRESS IT, AND THE EXPECTED GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS TO BE DELIVERED: Recent research on climate variability and their impacts in the Mediterranean (such as the MEDClivar project5, CIRCE6 among others) along with the findings contained in the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are all in agreement on the broad future trends in climate variability in the Mediterranean, in spite of the complexity of factors controlling Mediterranean climate. According to the IPCC Fourth assessment report, by the end of the century the rise in temperatures is expected to be between 2.2 °C and 5.1 °C. At the same time overall rainfall is also likely to decrease while the occurrence of extreme climatic events (flooding and drought) ought to intensify by 2100. An analysis of IPCC model projections for the 21st century finds a continuing decrease in precipitation that extends throughout the Mediterranean region and reaches values as high as 20% less of the current mean precipitation by the end of the century7. Sea-level is predicted to rise by between 30-40 cm by 2100, and changes will occur to water mass circulation. Marine acidification is likely to occur with some dramatic consequences to the balance of marine and coastal biodiversity. Climate variability in the Mediterranean, is controlled by physical processes responsible at both the local, such as changes in the surface properties and land use, and global such as the changes in the large scale atmospheric circulation associated with global warming, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), tropical monsoon and El Niňo Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The range of climate variability over time is much greater than climate changes that are predicted. Over the last 40-50 years it should be noted that sea level trends within the Mediterranean basin differ significantly (increasing and decreasing) from those of the nearby Atlantic Ocean8, Its is unclear for how long the Mediterranean Sea can sustain this behaviour different from the open ocean, although unlikely for more than 20-30 years. This also raises the question whether the Mediterranean Basin future sea level scenarios can be based on the global ones, as they do not include the relevant forcing mechanisms. What is critical is the need to further investigate how climate variability will impact the coastal zone communities, natural resources and marine and coastal biodiversity of the Mediterranean. With already 42 % of the coastal zone under artificial land cover, population and water demand having almost doubled in the 2nd half of the 20th century, the majority of aquifers depleted and/or polluted and a significant reduction in species diversity and fish stocks, the Mediterranean, with its majority of population in low lying coastal regions, has little resilience to cope with these predicted changes. During the 20th Century air temperature in the Mediterranean basin was observed to have risen by 1.4 to 4 °C depending on the sub-region. As such the countries of the Mediterranean are already witnessing the impacts of climate change/variability in the coastal zone and water sheds of the 5 The Mediterranean Climate Variability and Predictability. Endorsed by the European Science Foundation and implemented from 2006 to 2011 6 European Commission Climate Change and Research in the Mediterranean project 7 Mediterranean Precipitation Changes in IPCC Model Simulations: Relative Role of Dynamic and Thermodynamic Processes (Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 9, 09297, 2007) 8 Tsimplis and Baker, 2000, Woolf et al. 2003 PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 4 Mediterranean Large Marine Ecosystem such as decreasing water availability, increased incidents of flooding and forest fire. As such the countries of the Mediterranean recognize that with current projections there will be a number of climate impacts including increased summer temperatures and decreased annual precipitation, increased water-related extreme phenomena like floods and persistent droughts, enhanced water scarcity and increased desertification, the loss of- or shift in vegetation zones, threatened food production as a result of increased irrigation demands and more numerous incidents of plant diseases, human health hazards, particularly with regard to infectious diseases and increased heat-related mortality. Despite these forecasts since the 1990’s, a common Mediterranean voice on climatic issues has, until now, been very discreet in the international arena. One reason is that countries along the Mediterranean rim belong to different geographical groups when it comes to negotiating international law on the subject. The 15th Ordinary meeting of the Contracting Parties to the Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment and the Coastal Region of the Mediterranean and its Protocols, was held in Almeria (Spain) on the 15-18 January 2008. Climate Change was one of the main agenda items and the decisions of the Almeria Declaration included the agreements: To use the Protocol on Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) as the basis to address the practical response to the impact of climate change on Mediterranean coastal ecosystems; To identify by 2011 the coastal and marine species and habitats that are most sensitive to the changes that will result from the various scenarios on Climate Change and to promote measures for the establishment of a comprehensive and coherent Mediterranean network of coastal and marine protected areas by 2012. To undertake studies to estimate the economic value of the products currently derived from and the services rendered by the marine and coastal ecosystems and how that value will be affected by the disruptions that will result from climate change; To promote better management of energy demand and increase energy efficiency; to capitalize on the significant potential of the region for solar and wind energy development; to encourage management and restoration of forests and appropriate use of cultivations as carbon dioxide sinks; to promote better water demand management including improved water savings and consider, where appropriate, the use of non- conventional water resources such as treated waste waters in combination with renewable energy sources; To take the Tunis Declaration and Action Plan and the Rabat Declaration on Climate Change: Impacts, Preparedness and Adaptation Measures into consideration within the Mediterranean priorities for better adaptation and response to climate change. The countries of the Mediterranean have requested assistance in obtaining more detailed knowledge on climate variability and their environmental and socioeconomic impacts. This will enable a clearer vision on how national ICZM (including water related issues) will be developed and implemented, and will assist in prioritizing adaptation measures in the marine and coastal zone to ensure sustainable use of resources in the future in line with the ICZM protocol for the Mediterranean. This, along with the identification of best practices and tools/technologies available, will assist the formulation of agreements on the adaptation measures to be implemented throughout the region, and their implementation, through the integration and harmonization of national sector plans, through the ICZM process, and through the identification of the most sustainable and cost-effective investments needed in each participating country. ICZM is a long established management approach in Mediterranean coastal regions. Its importance for the regional countries has been strengthened by the adoption of the ICZM Protocol in Madrid on 21 January 2008. The countries have recognized the need for a systematic programme to develop and conserve resources in an area that has been subject to extreme pressures over the last few decades. The Mediterranean ICZM protocol is intended to reap development benefits through implementation of a management approach that will facilitate sustainable economic growth; help conserve natural habitats and species; assist in controlling pollution of coastal waters; contribute to the more efficient use of coastal resources; help rehabilitate degraded resources; provide mechanism and tools for rational resource allocation based on appropriate valuation of ecosystem services; and help mitigate PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 5 and adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change. The ICZM protocol is the first regional ICZM legal instrument that deals extensively with the issue of climate change, both at the strategic (by requesting countries to mainstream the climate change issues into national ICZM strategies and plans) and local levels (by requesting countries to define, inter alia, the coastal setback zone). Please note that several additional countries have requested to participate in the project, but due to the time required to receive endorsement letters have not been included in this proposal. However should additional Mediterranean GEF eligible countries wish to participate and provide their endorsement letters during the beginning of the project preparation phase, they will be included in the project at no additional cost to GEF. The project, proposed for a two year duration, is designed as a phase 1 of 2 projects, an additional project to the GEF Strategic Partnership of the Mediterranean Large Marine Ecosystem (SPMed), now under implementation. As such, it will utilize the management and coordination structure of the UNEP component of the SPMed, and will benefit from replication and communication strategy developed for the project. Activities under the UNEP component of the SPMed were developed to respond to priorities actions agreed in the Strategic Action Programmes (SAPs) for the Mediterranean Sea (developed between 1997 and 2003). However climate variability and their impacts were not detailed during their analysis and development, and in parallel the current development of ICZM plans do not include adaptation measures due in part to lack of data and analysis. The situation is gradually changing. Vulnerability assessment and impact analysis are also being carried in these same sectors within the framework of National Communications are being prepared in some participating countries. A number of climate change models have been applied in the region, although noted by some countries, at too coarse a resolution to effectively assess the potential impact of climate change at the national level. UNEP/MAP has recently developed a work-plan to address climate change in the region, the World Bank is about to implement a Regional Climate Change Programme for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the elaboration of a Strategy on Water in the Mediterranean including Climate Change Adaptation has been agreed in the framework of the Union for the Mediterranean, the European Union and other agencies and organizations are implementing projects. Yet most of the Mediterranean countries are lacking detailed assessments on the risks of climate change/variability to their coastal zone, and are lacking sufficient capacity to assess potential impacts and develop the necessary measures to address them. The project is also designed to support the World Bank (WB) “Mediterranean Sustainable Development Program” (“Sustainable MED”), which will further develop investment projects to address sustainable development issues such as de-pollution, the sustainable management of vulnerable ecosystems and climate change. The results of the project will be shared with all stakeholders of the “Sustainable MED” and the technical assistance component of the MSDP, to be coordinated by the WB center in Marseilles, will participate in the regional training activities under Component 3. Therefore this proposed project focus’s on addressing this lack, and the clear demand from the countries to understand the real implications of climate variability in the coastal zone of the Mediterranean Sea, to identify the most appropriate adaptation measures, in-line with UNEP MAP’s recently developed work-plan on Climate Change and the new ICZM protocol to the Barcelona Convention9, through the activities of its RAC’s (in particular Blue Plan), the work ongoing in the National Communications and research by several organizations in the region. In particular it aims to create a partnership of regional and national Climate, ICZM along side pollution and biodiversity stakeholders and experts, and build the capacity of regional and national institutions in order to incorporate climate variability issues into new and existing policies including ICZM plans as well as in programmes and projects. This will be achieved through the following components: 1. Regional Database and Programme developed and implemented to monitor climate variability, and integrated into ICZM monitoring. A region wide database and monitoring programme with indicators 9 As of March 2009, fifteen contracting parties to the Barcelona Convention out of twenty-two have signed, with the process of ratification ongoing. PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 6 will be developed for the marine and coastal zone of the Mediterranean to support knowledge sharing and planning of adaptation measures to climate variability, and to identify and address data and capacity gaps. This will be implemented in a synergistic manner with on-going work within the framework of the National Communications, ICZM plans at the national level and at the regional level with the ICZM protocol to the Barcelona Convention. The database will be linked current databases in particular to MAP’s regional activity center on Information (INFO/RAC) 2. Assessment of variability and impact scenarios of the Mediterranean coastal zone to Climate variability. This component will ensure that current models assessing scenarios and impacts of climate variability are applied to the Mediterranean10, in order to assist countries to more precisely calculate the impacts of climate variability to their marine and coastal zone. In partnership with other programmes (such as MedClivar) in the region, it will include latest results on the regional and global processes influencing climate variability such as the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Indian monsoon, predicted changes in marine salinity and marine acidification. It will focus on the coastal watersheds, with emphasis on risks to water availability and quality and marine ecosystems (including agriculture and fisheries), and other risks to be further defined, likely to include coastal erosion and landslides. 3. Regional Partnership, stakeholder involvement, sharing of tools and methods and awareness raising. This component is essential to ensure that a region wide and multi-stakeholder approach including the private sector is taken to address climate variability in the marine and coastal zone of the Mediterranean, to ensure that best-practices from and beyond the region are identified and shared with all countries, that all partners working on adaptation participate in the project, directly or through exchange of results and best practices (including the WB’s Middle East and North African Regional Climate Change programme). Capacity of countries will be enhanced through training of national institutions on tools, modeling and the most cost effective options to adaptation and possible centers of Excellence in the Mediterranean identified and strengthened for climate change adaptation. Countries who have not yet signed the ICZM protocol (Albania, Egypt and Libya) will be assisted to have a greater awareness of the opportunity and value of the ICZM protocol and its implementation. 4. Adaptation measures identified and plans for their implementation developed. As a result of the above activities, a suite of adaptation measures will be identified for priority vulnerable areas and for three areas, ICZM plans will be developed and agreed (in conjunction with the activities of the SPMed) with adaptation measure for climate vulnerability. Capacity and awareness raising of policy makers throughout the region on the tools and methods for adaptation to climate change/variability will be undertaken, with specific support to those countries yet to sign the ICZM protocol to build their knowledge and capacity on ICZM and the importance of integrating Climate change and variability. Finally for the future implementation of adaptation measures, a report on the priority measures to be undertaken in the vulnerable areas will be prepared, including mechanisms for their funding, which will support the phase 2 of the project to be developed. The incorporation of adaptation measures to ICZM plans and strategies will contribute to the implementation of the ICZM Protocol. By adopting a regional approach to Climate variability the project will build upon the most recent national and regional research and policy developments in this area, along with the National Communications developed for some of the participating countries for a common understanding of the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of climate change, and the measures required for adaptation. In addition it will utilize UNEP MAP and its RAC’s and other executing partners’ work at regional and national levels to ensure that the adaptation measures agreed are incorporated into ICZM and IWRM plans, as well as national sectoral plans and to other regional initiatives related to Climate Change including the establishment of Marine protected areas, the implementation of the ecosystem approach to fisheries, the work plan for the Mediterranean Commission on Sustainable Development (MCSD) the Mediterranean Component of the EU Water Initiative (MED EUWI), the implementation of the UfM Strategy for Water in the Mediterranean, etc. This will result in a region wide coherent and common approach to climate change adaptation and greater awareness and understanding of the 10 Such as work undertaken by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research UK Met Office. PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 7 issue and adaptation measures to be implemented in the marine and coastal zone. The global environmental benefits of this project are the knowledge on climate variability is closely linked to global atmospheric circulation and therefore is of value to the global community of researchers and institutions on climate/variability research. Climate change/variability is a global issue, and monitoring programme, impact assessments, and adaptation measures will all be broadly shared on a regional as well as global scale for possible replication. The Mediterranean Sea itself is historically, culturally and in terms of biodiversity considered an area of global importance for protection. B. DESCRIBE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE PROJECT WITH NATIONAL/REGIONAL PRIORITIES/PLANS: The proposed project is in line with the National Communications11 developed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). All participating countries have either signed, ratified or acceded to the Convention12. All countries with the exception of Turkey are parties to the Kyoto protocol. It has been recognized that ICZM is the best mechanism to ensure a harmonized approach to the integrated management of the coastal zone, and as such the ICZM protocol to the Barcelona Convention was drafted, agreed and currently 15 of the 22 contracting members to the Barcelona Convention have signed the protocol and the proposed plan is for the protocol to come into force (upon ratification of 6 countries) by the end of 2009. Participating countries still pending signature are Albania, Egypt, and Libya. All countries address coastal zone management in their national plans and legislative framework, and are currently working towards the more integrated ICZM, with the assistance of the WB, PAP/RAC (amongst others) and includes the implementation of Coastal Area Management Programme (CAMPs) in 9 out of 12 participating countries13. Furthermore, the 5th Conference of the Water Directors of the Euro-Mediterranean and Southeastern European Countries, held in Athens (Greece) on 21-22 July 2008, stressed that “It is important that adaptation strategies are developed and measures are taken as soon as possible so as to help people to manage their water basins and ecosystems in a sustainable way. Regarding IWRM plans, currently all countries have a water strategy or plan, and according to the criteria developed and published by Global Water Partnership (GWP) and UN Water14 most of these plans and/or strategies need further consultative work to present a fully-fledged IWRM plan. This work will be partially addressed by the Global Water Partnership –Mediterranean (GWP-Med) within the SPMed project. However it has been recognized that there is a great need to incorporate in all these plans and strategies (where it has not yet been addressed) the risks and measures to be undertaken to protect water resources from climate change aiming to adapt properly and timely to emerging conditions. Importantly, harmonization between national and local (in the rare cases these exist) IWRM and ICZM remains limited and require more effective coordination among competent parties. Such incorporations and harmonization should also address transboundary waters needs. This is critical especially for the MENA region where water stress is predicted to increase substantially. C. DESCRIBE THE CONSISTENCY OF THE PROJECT WITH GEF STRATEGIES AND STRATEGIC PROGRAMS: The project addresses the Strategic Objective “to play a catalytic role in addressing transboundary water concerns by assisting countries to utilize the full range of technical assistance, economic, financial, regulatory and institutional reforms that are needed”, by aiming towards protection of fisheries, water and coastal and marine habitats vulnerable to climate change, through ICZM planning. 11 Of the participating GEF eligible countries, National Communications have been submitted by Albania, Algeria, Croatia, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey 12 Montenegro, as a new state has ‘acceeded” to the Convention. 13 Albania, Algeria, Croatia, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey, with Montenegro under development. 14 Status Report on Integrated Water Resources Management and Water Efficiency Plans at CSD 16 (2008) PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 8 The project addresses Strategic Program 1: Restoring and Sustaining Coastal and Marine Fish Stocks and Associated Biological Diversity, in particular related to the text that states “Consistent with the ecosystem-based approach in addressing multiple stresses through ICM and linkages to upstream basin management through Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), the focal area will pursue collaboration on inter-linkages among GEF focal areas (especially biodiversity) that can sustain livelihoods, food security, and coastal habitats as a contribution to marine-related Johannesburg targets.” The project also addresses Strategic Program 3: Balancing overuse and conflicting uses of water resources in surface and groundwater basins that are transboundary in nature, particularly relevant for the countries in the MENA region, which will suffer the most from reduced water resources from climate change. D. JUSTIFY THE TYPE OF FINANCING SUPPORT PROVIDED WITH THE GEF RESOURCES: Currently, the proposed financing plan will come from participating countries, executing partners, bilateral aid and multilateral agencies, to be fully detailed during the PPG phase of the project. The project has been conceived to be cost effective, in terms of complimenting several initiatives in the region which will be described below and in section H. E. OUTLINE THE COORDINATION WITH OTHER RELATED INITIATIVES: The current proposal has been designed to compliment the following initiatives: The GEF UNEP WB Strategic Partnership for the Mediterranean LME (SPMed), whose regional component led by UNEP addresses Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM), groundwater and aquifer management, pollution from land-based sources, ecosystem approach to fisheries and marine protected area (MPA) development and management. These actions are based on the priorities identified in the Strategic Action Programme to address pollution from land-based sources (SAP-MED), the Strategic Action Programme for the conservation of biological diversity (SAP-BIO) along with the National Action Plans (NAPs) developed during the GEF UNEP project “Determination of Priority Actions for the Further Elaboration and Implementation of the Strategic Action Programme for the Mediterranean Sea”, completed in 2006. As such GWP-Med and PAP/RAC, responsible for the execution of activities related to IWRM and ICZM respectively, will participate in this proposal to ensure incorporation of climate variability into the development of IWRM and ICZM planning and respected practices at the national and regional level. In addition the current proposal is designed to add to the SPMed, and will utilise the Coordination mechanism (Steering Committee meetings, Coordination group meetings), will be hosted with the project management unit (PMU) in Athens, Greece, and will benefit from the Replication and Communication strategies to be implemented as part of the SPMed. Also of importance to the region is the Union for the Mediterranean (UFM), a multi-lateral cooperation framework marking an important step forward for the Euro-Mediterranean partnership. Its main objective is to launch and reinforce a number of key initiatives15 which will focus on issues including: the De-pollution of the Mediterranean; Maritime and Land Highways and Alternative Energies: Mediterranean Solar Plan. Although specific projects under the UFM have yet to be identified, a partnership will be established under the MSDP to compliment investments and technical assistance towards achieving the goals of the UFM. More recently a WB GEF “Mediterranean Sustainable Development Program” (Sustainable MED) was proposed as the overarching umbrella coordinating actions with the aim to integrate the environment within the economic development agenda, thereby sustaining the resource base of the region to ensure water and food security and the livelihood of its communities through: supporting priority projects promoting environmentally sound development including sustainable surface and groundwater management; foster capacity building in the South as well as technology transfer between the North and the South; mobilizing financial resources for the southern countries; and enhancing collaboration among countries, multi and bi-lateral organizations, the private sector, NGOs, and the civil society at large, ensuring sustainable development in the Mediterranean. This is in line with the priorities of the Union for the Mediterranean (UFM) as agreed by Ministers who 15 Joint Declaration of the Paris Summit for the Mediterranean, Paris, 13 July 2008 PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 9 signed the declaration of the Paris summit for the Mediterranean, held in Paris on July 13, 2008. The Programme will consist of an Investment Component and a technical assistance component, supported by the WB Marseilles Centre. The WB have submitted16 a Regional project on Coordination on Improved Water Resources Management and Capacity Building (Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, West Bank and Gaza, Syria, and Tunisia, as well as other Arab cooperating countries). This proposal will coordinate closely with the WB to ensure that activities compliment each other in addressing climate change vulnerability. Data and assessments will be shared, and the project will provide guidance for the further development of Investment Fund proposals of the “Sustainable MED” addressing vulnerable areas to climate variability/change. This current project is therefore aimed to filling in the need for a more regional approach to climate variability in the Mediterranean marine and coastal zone, supporting the Strategic Partnership for the Mediterranean (SPMed) and both SPMed and this proposal will be considered as part of the overarching MSDP. In addition to the above, the project compliments the ongoing work of the National Communications in participating countries, GEF projects such as the UNDP Full Size Project “Adaptation to Climate Change in the Nile Delta through Integrated Coastal Zone Management Climate Change” and the UNDP “Identification and Implementation of Adaptation Response Measures in the Drini-Mati River Deltas” (both recently approved by GEF). It will collaborate with the Mediterranean Climate Variability and Predictability (MEDClivar) programme, organisations working on climate modelling and research in the region. F. DISCUSS THE VALUE-ADDED OF GEF INVOLVEMENT IN THE PROJECT DEMONSTRATED THROUGH INCREMENTAL REASONING : The baseline situation is that adaptation measures to climate variability and change in the Mediterranean marine and coastal environment has been carried out in an uncoordinated manner, mostly at the local/national level. As often mentioned by participating countries, impact assessments have suffered from insufficient data and identification of policy options and possible response measures, have often been done without the involvement of all regional partners and not utilizing the most appropriate and cost effective tools and technologies and policy experiences that have been developed within and beyond the region. Also in parallel the IWRM and ICZM process will continue, so far not incorporating measures to address impacts on habitat and biodiversity protection and water resources from climate variability, which as stated clearly in Section A may in the future be the greatest cause of these issues in particular for the MENA region and low lying and riverine areas of the Mediterranean. The economic loss from flooding, decreased agriculture, increased water stress, reduced fisheries are likely to have a significant impact on national economies, as well and human health and security. In Egypt alone it has been estimated that based on a 0.5 m sea level rise, estimated losses of land, installations, and tourism will exceed US$32.5 billion and 8 million people would be displaced in Egypt by a 1 meter rise in sea level, assuming no protection and existing population levels (Broadus et al., 1986; Milliman et al., 1989). At the regional workshop on Climate Change in the Mediterranean, held in Marseilles by Blue Plan on the 22-23rd October 2008, where over 100 national and regional experts participated, it was concluded that the region to which the Mediterranean countries belong is one of the areas most vulnerable to the various impacts of the climate change currently underway. These impacts are likely to trigger a rise in sea-levels, greater coastal erosion, a weakening of natural coastal defenses, whilst also placing a strain on ecosystems already affected by deforestation, increasing water scarcity, disrupting fish stocks and prompting the renewed outbreak of epizootics and vectoral diseases. The climate threat is arising at a time when most Mediterranean countries are also having to face up to the energy, economic and ecological challenges of globalisation against a backdrop of general population 16 to the June 2009 GEF Council PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 10 growth. The combination of these various challenges could well affect the efficiency if not the relevance of the economic investments made over the last few years and give rise to unprecedented social problems. Recommendations included the following: An information system on climate change,….identifying and seeking out any missing data, particularly through enhanced regional cooperation, and ensuring that climate variability is included in regional and national planning and decision-taking The creation of financial instruments by the partners in order to adapt to climate change/variability; The regular organisation at Mediterranean level – under the aegis of the Mediterranean Commission on Sustainable Development and the Blue Plan,….events dedicated to climate change, with particular focus on….exchange of good mitigation but particularly adaptation practices, as well as the adaptation measures.. Without GEF support, countries will continue to deal with ICZM and adaptation on a local and national level in implementation of the ICZM protocol, without access to climate change/variability assessments, data tools and methods required to develop the most cost-effective adaptation measures to protect coastal communities, and natural resources, and will lack exchange of best-practices within the Mediterranean region. With GEF support, the project will ensure that climate change modeling and data is available throughout the region, a long-term monitoring of climate change risks to the marine and coastal zone is agreed and indicators defined and, gaps are analyzed, that countries have the appropriate knowledge, data related to the impacts of climate change particularly related to water quality and resources, biodiversity etc, and have the policy tools and capacity to design, adopt and implement the most effective and cost effective adaptation measures. G. INDICATE RISKS, INCLUDING CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS, THAT MIGHT PREVENT THE PROJECT OBJECTIVE(S) FROM BEING ACHIEVED, AND IF POSSIBLE INCLUDING RISK MITIGATION MEASURES THAT WILL BE TAKEN: Risks Mitigation measures Political willingness to adopt long-term monitoring programme and adaptation measures Countries knowledge enhanced of environmental and economic costs of climate variability (through activities of Component 2) Full participation in project design and execution through national and regional level partnerships and capacity building (Low) Economic insecurity in participating countries, unwillingness to invest in adaptation Clear analysis of cost benefits of adaptation measures, additional investments identified along with external funding mechanisms. (Medium) Lack of coordination in national interministries for full ownership and participation in project activities and development of agreed adaptation measures and plans. Utilize ICZM national intersectoral groups. Transparency in planning and implementation; involving stakeholders in decision making. Component 3 to ensure national partnerships established and fully functional. (Low) Effective participation and active involvement of all stakeholders in project execution National and regional level stakeholder involvement, partnership, exchange network and capacity building implemented. Centres of excellence established/enhanced for climate change adaptation. (Low) Most appropriate data, Participation of global as well as regional climate variability research PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 11 modeling and assessments undertaken centres and experts i.e. Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research UK Met Office among others. (Low) H. DESCRIBE, IF POSSIBLE, THE EXPECTED COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF THE PROJECT: A regional approach to climate change assessments and adaptation has a number of cost-effective advantages, in terms of the transfer knowledge and skills between countries, to apply best practice, to promote the adoption of policy reforms throughout the region and to enhance the replication of successful pilot projects to achieve regional objectives. This overall strategic approach incorporating a comprehensive suite of actions and investments is a more cost-effective and higher impact vehicle to demonstrate benefits than a series of individual projects. Such a strategic approach will also help to promote action over a specified and shorter period so that more tangible results can be achieved in a shorter timeframe. By complimenting the GEF project SPMed, the project is supported by the overall coordination structure of this project, is hosted by UNEP/MAP, and compliments the proposed activities to be executed by PAP/RAC and GWP-Med. It also will benefit from the communication and replication structure of the SPMed. It also used existing Intersectoral coordination to be established in the ICZM and IWRM process. In terms of assessments and modeling, whilst building upon past and ongoing initiatives, the National Communications etc, it will benefit from existing models already developed.17 I. JUSTIFY THE COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE OF GEF AGENCY: UNEP has the convening power, which can be used to bring countries and relevant non-state stakeholders together to explore their mutual goals and objectives with respect to shared ecosystems. The success of UNEP in co-hosting the IPCC and in fostering the development and negotiation on global environmental issues, including four multilateral agreements for which the GEF acts as the financial mechanism; the 14 regional seas conventions and action plans; and many others, attests to the impact of this power. UNEP has always had a particular strength in working at the global, regional and subregional level and has led the field in GEF for its normative and exploratory work in different fields of interest to the GEF. Examples include the work on international waters, and in the global assessments such as the Global Environmental Outlook (GEO), Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). The other comparative strengths include the following: (a) Emerging issues and adaptive learning: As the only GEF implementing and executing agency whose sole mandate is advancing environmental management, UNEP has an advantage in its extensive experience in piloting approaches and innovations to address emerging environmental problems. Examples include the innovative financing approaches being developed by the UNEP Sustainable Energy Finance Initiative. (b) Monitoring and assessment: With a mandate to focus on keeping the global environmental situation under review, UNEP has developed expertise in global environmental monitoring and assessment, and early warning on emerging issues. This expertise can help governments and agencies to base their decisions and investment on the best scientific and technical information available. (c) Fostering transboundary collaboration: Thanks to its network of regional offices and established collaboration with regional and sub-regional bodies, UNEP has intimate knowledge of the geo-political environment and has been building this resource to help countries to understand the systems and to tackle problems that cross boundaries. 17 i.e. the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research UK Met Office models, available to all the GEF eligible countries PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 12 (d) Establishing networks with other organizations: UNEP is relatively small with a broad mandate compared to the other GEF implementing and executing agencies requiring it to identify ways to harness the expertise and assets of other institutions that have more field level operations. In the implementation of its programme of work, UNEP therefore works through partners (such as the partners of the SPMed) UNEP is building up a close collaboration with UNDP across the field of environment and the first fruits of this can be seen in the joint MOU on Climate Change and the “Poverty and Environment Initiative”. In addition is must be noted that UNEP through its Regional Seas Programme supports the Mediterranean Action Plan, which has been working the last 30 years in the marine and coastal zone of the Mediterranean, with a strong network of experts and its Regional activity Centers, notably in relation to this project, the Blue Plan Regional Activity Center for environment and development and Priority Actions Programme (PAP/RAC) focusing on coastal zone management and the Regional Activity Center for biodiversity conservation and specially protected areas (RAC/SPA). MAP and its Regional Activity Centres will execute the GEF UNEP regional component of the Strategic Partnership for the Mediterranean Large Marine Ecosystem, which complements this proposal. PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 13 PART III: APPROVAL/ENDORSEMENT BY GEF OPERATIONAL FOCAL POINT(S) AND GEF AGENCY(IES) A. RECORD OF ENDORSEMENT OF GEF OPERATIONAL FOCAL POINT (S) ON BEHALF OF THE GOVERNMENT(S): (Please attach the country endorsement letter(s) or regional endorsement letter(s) with this template). NAME POSITION MINISTRY ABESHI, Pellumb Secretary General ECHIRK, Djamel Inspector General of Environment Gordana Ruklić Head of International Relations Department, ABOUL AZM, Mawaheb Chief Executive Officer Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA) Member, Board of Environmental General Authority Deputy Minister Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Water Management, Albania Ministere d'Amenagement deTerritoires et l'Environnement, Algeria Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction Republike Austrije 14, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs, Egypt AMER, Mohamed Sinisa STANKOVIC Mohamad BENYAHIA M. Dali Najeh Dr. Mohamed Eila Director of Partnership, Communication and Cooperation General Director, Environment and Quality of Life Deputy Director DATE (Month, day, year) 29th July 2009 15th June 2009 12th June 2009 16th June 2009 Environmental General Authority Libya 17th June 2009 Ministry of Tourism and Environmental Protection, Montenegro Ministry of Energy, Mining, Water and Environment, Morocco Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development Tunisia 16th June 2009 General Environment Quality Authority, Palestinian Authority 16th June 2009 31th July 2009 29th July 2009 B. GEF AGENCY(IES) CERTIFICATION This request has been prepared in accordance with GEF policies and procedures and meets the GEF criteria for project identification and preparation. Agency Coordinator, Agency name Maryam NiamirFuller Director, DGEF UNEP GEF Agency Coordinator Signature Date (Month, day, year) Project Contact Person Telephone Email Address 09/07/2009 Kelly West +254 20 762 4147 [email protected] PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 14 PIF-Adaptation to Climate Variability through ICZM/IWRM (ACC-MED) 15