Download Temperature Anomaly 0 C - Adaptation Resource Kit

Climate Change in the
Columbia Basin
Sediment coring in alpine
environments
Climate Change
in the Columbia Basin
Presentation Overview:
1. Introduction to climate science - variability
and extremes.
2. Projected future climate for the Basin.
3. Some implications for our land, water and
communities.
Warming has Temporal Variability
Climate Variability
Short
term: (years to decadal)
Temperature
ups and downs about the trend
line (e.g. El Niño/La Niña)
Time
About 20C
Warming has Temporal Variability
Climate Variability
Short term: (years to decadal)
ups and downs about the trend
line (e.g. El Niño/La Niña)
Plus decadal-scale trends
About 20C
Average Annual Temperature has
Increased Over the Last Century
9
Climate Change
C0
Long-term trends or major
shifts in climate (multidecadal to century-scale)
8
7
6
5
0.7 to 1.70 C at weather
stations across the Basin
4
1913
1933
1953
1973
1993
1970 - 1977
1977 - 1986
1986 - 1995
1995 - 2001
2001 - 2012
Average
Annual Temperature
hasof
…and
is impacting
the frequency
extreme
events
Increased
over the Last Century
9
C0
8
7
6
5
Data from Basin
4
1913
1933
1953
1973
1993
Probability of
occurrence
Increase in Mean Temperature
Historical
Climate
Cold
Average
Hot
Probability of
occurrence
Increase in Mean Temperature
More hot
weather
Historical
Climate
Less cold
weather
Cold
More
Record hot
weather
New
Climate
Average
Hot
Probability of
occurrence
Increase in Variance
Historical
Climate
More cold
weather
Cold
More record
cold weather
More hot
weather
New
Climate
Average
Hot
More record
hot weather
Probability of
occurrence
Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance
Historical
Climate
Cold
Average
Hot
Probability of
occurrence
Increase in Mean Temperature & Variance
Much
more hot
weather
and record
hot weather
Historical
Climate
Less change
In cold
weather
Cold
New
Climate
Average
Hot
The Data
0.1 – 0.2 %
4 – 13 %
Warming has Spatial Variability
*
Temperature Anomaly 0C
Warming has Spatial Variability
*
Temperature Anomaly 0C
Warming has Spatial Variability
**
Temperature Anomaly 0C
Warming has Spatial Variability
*
Temperature Anomaly 0C
Warming has Spatial Variability
*
Temperature Anomaly 0C
Yogi Berra
“Prediction is very difficult,
especially about the future.”
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS
“Most of the warming over the last several decades can
be attributed to human activities that release carbon
dioxide (CO2) and other heat-trapping greenhouse
gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere.”
“The burning of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and
natural gas—for energy is the single
largest human driver of climate change.”.
“Human-induced climate change and its
impacts will continue for many decades,
and in some cases for many centuries.”
300
260
240
220
200
180
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
Age (yr BP))
200,000
100,000
0
CO2 (ppm)
280
1
300
260
240
220
200
180
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
Age (yr BP))
200,000
100,000
0
CO2 (ppm)
280
Projections
2100 AD
CO2 (450-1100)
CH4 (1500-3700)
Today 393ppm
300
280
CO2 (ppm)
“Natural Range” CO2
240
200
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
Age (yr BP)
Petit et al. (1999) Nature 399:429-436
200,000
100,000
0
100 yr
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
Understanding and responding to climate change (Highlights of National Academies Reports, 2008)
Advancing the Science of Climate Change, America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the
Science of Climate Change; National Research Council (2010)
5
4
3
2
1
Global Temperature
(deg C)
...Provides
Perspective
Projections
2100 AD
Global models can be downscaled
for regional studies
Canadian Regional Climate Model 3.6
Change in annual mean screen (2m) temperature (°C) in 2041-2060 relative
to 1971-1990 simulated by CRCM3.6.1
*
Climate Profile for Castlegar
Climate element
Projected future change
in the Central Kootenay
By 2050s
Average temperature
ANNUAL
+1.9oC
(+1.1 to +2.8)
Average precipitation
ANNUAL
+5%
(-3% to +11%)
Average temperature
SUMMER
2.4 oC
(+1.6 to +3.2)
Average precipitation
SUMMER
-8%
(-20% to -2%)
Average temperature
WINTER
1.7oC
(+0.8 to +3.3)
Average precipitation
WINTER
+7%
(-3% to +17%)
Average Snowfall
WINTER
-9%
(-16% to +4%)
Average Snowfall
SPRING
-52%
(-73% to -5%)
Climate Profile for Castlegar
Projected future change
in the Central Kootenay
Climate element
By 2050s
Average temperature
ANNUAL
+1.9oC
(+1.1 to +2.8)
Average precipitation
ANNUAL
+5%
(-3% to +11%)
Average temperature
SUMMER
2.4 oC
(+1.6 to +3.2)
Average precipitation
SUMMER
-8%
(-20% to -2%)
Other Variables
Annual Growing Degree Days
+326
(+177 to 471)
Annual Heating Degree Days
-679
(-1001 to -407)
Annual Frost-Free Days
+26
(+16 to +37)
Climate Extremes in the Canadian Columbia Basin:
A Preliminary Assessment (2012)
Up to four times as many warm summer days and nights.
42oC
38oC
Extreme Events in the Basin
Temperature or
Precipitation
Twoto
toeleven-fold
three-fold increase
Two
increasein
inthe
thefrequency
occurrence
of 25-year
extremerecord
precipitation
events
with 5-, 10of
extremely
hot days.
and 25-year return periods.
Time
From Impacts
Dialoguefor
to the
Action
Projected
Basin
e.g. Transportation
Projected Impacts for the Basin
e.g. Infrastructure
e.g. Transportation
Climatic Extremes – One Example
Precipitation 2012 Johnson’s Landing
June Precipitation: 1901 to 2012
250
2012: 228 mm
Precipitation (mm)
200
150
Maximum 1901-2000
(1963): 120 mm
Mean 1901-2000:
61 mm
100
50
0
(preliminary data, subject to correction)
Impacts
• 4 people killed
• 4 houses destroyed
• Community water
system destroyed
• Road destroyed
• Utilities Damaged
TMTV
Increased Soil Moisture
Decreased Soil Strength
Landslide
Source: Greg Utzig. www.kootenay resiliance.org
48
Athabasca Glacier
Change in 88 years
Climate Change Impacts
Continuing Rapid Recession of
Alpine Glaciers
Ice loss at Kokanee Glacier
since ca. 1870
Kokanee Glacier ice margin 2010
Approximate ice margins as of ca. 1870
Climate Change Impacts
Streamflows and Snowpack
Climate Change Impacts
Water Supply:
An Example from Kaslo
Supply (Kemp Creek) vs. Demand (Kaslo) in August
(Based on Lowest Projected Scenarios)
cnrm
echo
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
19
51
19
58
19
65
19
72
19
79
19
86
19
93
20
00
20
07
20
14
20
21
20
28
20
35
20
42
20
49
20
56
20
63
20
70
20
77
20
84
20
91
20
98
% of avaiable water used
300.0
Climate change impacts & planning:
Stormwater management
The confluence of Ward and Baker – Nelson BC, 2012
Climate change impacts & planning
Flood Risk and Extreme Events
Climate change impacts & planning:
Interface Wildfire
From Dialogue to Action
The End