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Transcript
Climate variability, climate change and agriculture
John Quiggin
Federation Fellow, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, Schools of
Economics and Political Science, University of Queensland
Paper presented at the 2010 NZARES Conference
Tahuna Conference Centre – Nelson, New Zealand. August 26-27, 2010.
Copyright by author(s). Readers may make copies of this document for non-commercial purposes
only, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies.
Climate variability,
climate change and
agriculture
Paper presented at New Zealand
Agricultural and Resource Economics
Society Conference
26-27 August 2010, Nelson
John Quiggin
Federation Fellow
Risk and Sustainable Management Group, Schools of
Economics and Political Science, University of
Queensland
Web Sites
RSMG
http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/rsmg/
index.htm
Quiggin http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/
johnquiggin
Blog http://johnquiggin.com
Climate variability
A perennial problem for agriculture
Australia: ‘droughts and flooding rains’
Responses
Irrigation: ‘droughtproofing’
Production flexibility and diversification
Financial measures for consumption
smoothing
Responses
Irrigation: ‘droughtproofing’
Production flexibility and diversification
Financial measures for consumption
smoothing
Modelling
State-contingent production
Introduced in GE modelling, Arrow-Debreu
Chambers& Quiggin, modern production
theory
Natural integration with finance theory
The Murray–Darling
Basin
Source of most Australian agricultural
production
Most variable of world’s major river systems
High rainfall variability amplified by
evapotranspiration, groundwater flows
Elasticity of 3 Climate Change
Driven by greenhouse gas emissions
Change in stochastic distribution of climate
Attribution problem
Projections
Warming of at least 2 degrees even with
stabilization at 450 ppm
This, and not status quo, should be
baseline for comparison
Business as usual
Implies high risk of catastrophic damage by
2100
Assumes discovery of ‘magic bullet’ which
will remove CO2 and/or reverse
cumulative processes
Projections from the Garnaut Review
Rainfall impacts
More spatial and temporal variability
•  The wet get wetter and the dry get drier
More extreme events
•  Flood events exacerbated by sea level rise
Agricultural
production
Mixed impact for warming up to 2 degrees
by 2100 Negative net impacts 2-3.5 degrees
Serious to catastrophic losses at higher
rates of warming
Cereal price impacts of climate change (IPCC FAR)
Impact on Murray–
Darling Basin
Decline in average inflows
Increase in drought frequency
A state-contingent
model
Farmers plan production for Wet, Normal
and Dry states
Increase in drought frequency causes large
reductions in profitability
Baseline for Murray-Darling Basin simulations
Median climate, business as usual, 2100
Median climate, 450 ppm mitigation, 2100
Policy implications
Under business as usual, irrigation ceases
to be viable
Combination of mitigation, adjustment,
innovation can achieve sustainable
outcome
Concluding comments
Risk and variability are central in
agricultural production
Climate change creates new risks, changes
old ones
Markets are a crucial part of the response
Climate variability,
climate change and
agriculture