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Educating the Public About Climate Change Issues - the Role of Outreach By Barrett N. Rock Complex Systems Research Center University of New Hampshire [email protected] The Public has Many Climate Change Questions • Is climate change or global warming real? • Isn’t the current warming trend just part of a natural cycle? • How do we know human activities are the cause? • Can we do anything about climate change? Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public • Providing Solid Science; Pelée Krakatoa Agung St. Helens (Bali) Pinatubo The Solar Cycles 11 years 100+ years (Taken from NERA Overview, 2001) • CO2 exists in two stable isotopic forms in the air 12CO (light CO ) 2 2 13 and CO2 (heavy CO2); • Green plants selectively take up 12CO2 (light CO2); • When fossil fuels are burned, they emit more light CO2 than occurs in air because the fuels were originally made from green plants. Ambient “Heavy” 13CO Concentrations 2 Total Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations 2005 the warmest year on record 1998 the previous warmest year Sunspot activity Baseline represents average temperatures for 1861-1899; 2005 includes the full year 2005. No cooling volcanoes along with increasing sunspot activity First Half 20th Century Warming (Natural) Mid-Century Cooling (Urban Pollution) Latter Half 20th Century Warming (GHGs) Baseline represents average temperatures for 1861-1899; 2005 includes the full year 2005. Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public • Providing Solid Science; • Use Compelling Graphics; 600 Projected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel Burning 500 The EPICA Ice Core Project 400 300 280 CO2 [ppmv] 260 240 220 200 180 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 Age (yr BP) 200,000 100,000 0 600 Projected Concentration After 50 More Years of Unrestricted Fossil Fuel Burning 500 The EPICA Ice Core Project 400 Today’s CO2 Concentration 384 ppm 300 280 Pre-Industrial Maximum CO2 [ppmv] 260 240 The Range of Natural Variability 220 200 180 Pre-Industrial Minimum 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 Age (yr BP) 200,000 100,000 0 Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public • Provide Solid Science; • Use Compelling Graphics; • Include Local/Regional Information; Spatial Variation of Annual Temperature Trend 1899-2000 1.8oF over past 100 years Linear trend in annual temperature (oF) from 1899-2000 for the Northeast. The change was estimated from a linear regression of annual average temperature for each station. Use Regional Issues - New England Fall Colors Changing Maple Sugaring Conditions 8-hour Average Peak Concentration 0-50 ppb 51-100 ppb 101-150 ppb 151-200 ppb 201-300 ppb Bad Ozone Day (8-hour peak values) http://airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=airnow.displaymaps#map Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public • Provide Solid Science; • Use Compelling Graphics; • Include Local/Regional Information; • Make the Data Relevant; Temperature °C Historic Historic –10 CGCM1 CGCM1-10 Hadley Hadley-10 1.8oF (Taken from NERA Overview, 2001) Temperature °F New England Regional Mean Historic and Model Scenario Annual Minimum Temperature Change 10oF 6oF (10o F) (6o F) Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public • Provide Solid Science; • Use Compelling Graphics; • Include Local/Regional Information; • Make the Data Relevant; • Be Honest; What Must be Done to Avert Catastrophic Climate Change Averting catastrophic climate change” is defined as limiting the increase in average global surface temperature to 2° C (3.6° F) above the pre-industrial level (pre-1750). This will require stabilizing the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and its equivalents (“CO2e”) to 450 parts per million by volume (“450 ppmv CO2e”). To have a greater-than-50% chance of reaching the goal will require limits very close to: (a) Capping the growth of all U.S. emissions by 2010; (b) Reducing emissions by no less than 3.33% per year from the baseline year of 2010; and (c) Eliminating all human-induced emissions by 2040. Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public • Provide Solid Science; • Use Compelling Graphics; • Include Local/Regional Information; • Make the Data Relevant; • Be Honest; • But Also be Hopeful; Recent findings from “Northeast Climate Choices” published in 2006 by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The difference between “higher” (business as usual) and “Lower”(an active effort to reduce emissions by 3% per year). Emissions scenarios depend on our energy choices - fossil fuels vs. alternative energy 5-15 years out 40-50 years out 80-90 years out Assumptions made for the Lower Emissions Scenario Extensive use of Public Transportation; • Reduced Vehicle Miles Traveled; • More Fuel Efficient Cars (Higher CAFE Standards at 34 (2015) and 50 MPG (2030); • Use Low Carbon Fuels (Gasohol, E85); • Aggressive Development of Alternative sources of Energy (Wind, Solar, Tidal, etc.); • Improved Home Energy Efficiency (CFLs, Increased insulation, Energy-STAR Appliances, Passive Solar, etc.). • Useful Approaches in Dealing with the Public • Provide Solid Science; • Use Compelling Graphics; • Include Local/Regional Information; • Make the Data Relevant; • Be Honest; • But Also be Hopeful. Examples of Successful Programs that Communicate Climate Change Issues with the Public The New England Regional Assessment Available On-Line at: http://www.necci.sr.unh.edu/ Reducing Residential Greenhouse Gas Emissions through the New Hampshire Carbon Challenge Denise Blaha and Julia Dundorf Households Have a Critical Role in Stabilizing Climate Change At least 40% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions come from households: • Vehicles • Home Heating • Electricity The New Hampshire Carbon Challenge A UNH initiative committed to providing NH residents and communities with the information, tools and support necessary for households to reduce their CO2 emissions by 10,000 pounds per year. COMMUNITY-WIDE CHALLENGES • Town-wide Carbon Challenges • Organization Challenges • Employee Challenges • School Challenges Our Google Map of Challenge Takers Strategies for Success: Build Community (Make Carbon Reduction Fun!) Strategies for Success: Recognize Actions and Achievement Bumper stickers and window decals for Challenge takers Strategies for Success Recognize Actions and Achievement Monthly “Climate Heroes” NH Carbon Challenge Achievements • 115 public presentations on climate change have led to household actions by approximately 6000 residents. • 2.8 millions tons CO2 committed to be reduced • $340,000 to be saved in reduced energy costs • Developed “Climate Change Champions” workshop series to train 40-60 presenters to give talks in their communities • Collaborating with other New England states to regionalize efforts Lessoned Learned • Behavior change is really difficult; many obstacles exist. • Focus on communities (towns, businesses, faith-based organizations, civic groups) is ESSENTIAL to galvanizing action. • Information alone is insufficient to bring about change • Simple changes (like switching light bulbs) often lead to more substantial actions and deeper cuts in household CO2 emissions Forest Watch Bridging Science and Education Through Ground-Truth Studies of White Pine Stands Consider the Hybrid Option Remember, there are 25 Pounds of CO2 in every Gallon of Gas! Source: W. Eugene Smith The Family of Man Exhibition What Will the Future Be? Our Decisions Today Will Shape Tomorrow