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A)PAST CONVENTIONS AND SUMMITS
1. PARIS ENVIRONMENTAL CONVENTION
INTRODUCTION
The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP 21 or CMP 11 was held in
Paris, France, from 30 November to 12 December 2015. It was the 21st yearly session of the
Conference of the Parties (COP) to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 11th session of the Conference of the Parties (CMP) to
the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
PURPOSE
To set a goal of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius (°C) compared to preindustrial levels. The agreement calls for zero net anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to
be reached during the second half of the 21st century. The 1.5 °C goal will require zero
emissions sometime between 2030 and 2050. A number of meetings took place in
preparation for COP21, including the Bonn Climate Change Conference, 19 to 23 October
2015, which produced a draft agreement. According to the organizing committee of the
summit in Paris, the objective of the 2015 conference was to achieve, for the first time in
over 20 years of UN negotiations, a binding and universal agreement on climate, from all the
nations of the world.
PARTIES INVOLVED
Key role of China and the U.S;
World Pensions Council (WPC) argued that the keys to success lay in convincing officials in
the U.S. and China, by far the two largest national emitters: "As long as policy makers in
Washington and Beijing didn't put all their political capital behind the adoption of ambitious
carbon-emission capping targets, the laudable efforts of other G20 governments often
remained in the realm of pious wishes.
To some extent, France served as a model country for delegates attending COP21 because it
is one of the few developed countries in the world to decarbonize electricity production and
fossil fuel energy while still providing a high standard of living. The conference took place
two weeks after a series of terrorist attacks in central Paris. Security was tightened
accordingly, with 30,000 police officers and 285 security checkpoints deployed across the
country until after the conference ended.
The European Union and 195 nations were the participating parties.
RESULTS
On 12 December 2015, the participating 195 countries agreed, by consensus, to the final
global pact, the Paris Agreement, to reduce emissions as part of the method for reducing
greenhouse gas. In the 12-page document, the members agreed to reduce their carbon output
"as soon as possible" and to do their best to keep global warming "to well below 2 degrees
C".
Some analysts have also observed that the stated objectives of the Paris Agreement are
implicitly predicated upon an assumption – that member states of the United Nations,
including high polluters such as China, US, India, Canada, Russia, Indonesia and Australia,
which generate more than half the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, will somehow drive
down their carbon pollution voluntarily and assiduously without any binding enforcement
mechanism to measure and control CO2emissions at any level from factory to state, and
without any specific penalty gradation or fiscal pressure (for example a carbon tax) to
discourage bad behaviour.
2. EARTH SUMMIT
INTRODUCTION
The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), also known as
the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit , Rio Summit, Rio Conference, and Earth Summit, was a
major United Nations conference held in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992.
In 2012, the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development was also held in Rio,
and is also commonly known as Rio Earth Summit 2012. It was held from 13 to 22 June.
PURPOSE
The issues addressed included:
 Systematic scrutiny of patterns of production
 Alternative sources of energy to replace the use of fossil fuels
 New reliance on public transportation systems in order to reduce vehicle emissions,
congestion in cities and the health problems caused by polluted air and smoke
 The growing usage and limited supply of water
The Convention on Biological Diversity was opened for signature at the Earth Summit,
and made a start towards redefinition of measures that did not inherently encourage
destruction of natural Eco regions and so-called uneconomic growth.
PARTIES INVOLVED
172 governments participated, with 116 sending their heads of state or government.[1] Some
2,400 representatives of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) attended, with 17,000
people at the parallel NGO "Global Forum", who had Consultative Status.
Although President George H. Bush signed the Earth Summit’s Convention on Climate, his
EPA Administrator William K. Reilly acknowledges that U.S. goals at the conference were
difficult to negotiate and the agency’s international results were mixed, including the U.S.
failure to sign the proposed Convention on Biological Diversity.
Twelve cities were also honoured by the Local Government Honours Award for innovative
local environmental programs. These included Sudbury in Canada for its ambitious program
to rehabilitate environmental damage from the local mining industry, Austin in the United
States for its green building strategy, and Kitakyūshū in Japan for incorporating an
international education and training component into its municipal pollution control program.
RESULTS
The Earth Summit resulted in the following documents:
 Rio Declaration on Environment and Development
 Agenda 21
 Forest Principles
Moreover, important legally binding agreements (Rio Convention) were opened for
signature:
 Convention on Biological Diversity
 Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
 United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
In order to ensure compliance to the agreements at Rio (particularly the Rio Declaration on
Environment and Development and Agenda 21), delegates to the Earth Summit established
the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD).
Green Cross International was founded to build upon the work of the Summit.
The first edition of Water Quality Assessments, published by WHO/Chapman & Hall, was
launched at the Rio Global Forum.
An important achievement of the summit was an agreement on the Climate Change
Convention which in turn led to the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. Another
agreement was to "not to carry out any activities on the lands of indigenous peoples that
would cause environmental degradation or that would be culturally inappropriate".
3. KYOTO PROTOCOL
INTRODUCTION
Kyoto Protocol treaty was negotiated in December, 1997 at the city of Kyoto, Japan and
came into force on February 16, 2005. The protocol was developed under UNFCCC (The
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).
PURPOSE
This protocol was a legally binding agreement under which industrialised countries would
reduce their collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to the year 1990.
The greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur, hexafluoride,
HFC‟s and PFC‟s calculated as an average over the five years period 2008-12. National
targets range from 8% reductions for the European Union and some others to 7% for the US,
6% for Japan, 0% for Russia and permitted increase of 8% for Australia and 10% for
Iceland. India and China are not obliged to reduce greenhouse gas production at the moment
as they are developing countries. They were not seen as the culprits for emissions during the
period of industrialisation.
PARTIES INVOLVED
A total of 192 countries have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol, excepting
Afghanistan, Sudan, U.S.A, Andorra and Vatican City
RESULT
According to one study, when you look at total carbon footprint of each nation (including
imports and excluding exports), the progress made under Kyoto looks extremely poor, with
Europe's savings reduced to just 1% from 1990 to 2008 and the developed world as a whole
seeing its emissions rise by 7% in the same period.
Overall, the result is that global emissions have showed no sign of slowing down. In that
sense, the Kyoto protocol has been a failure. But it was unquestionably an important first
step in global climate diplomacy.
4. COPENHAGEN CLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE
INTRODUCTION
The 15th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 5th session of the
Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol took
place in Copenhagen and was hosted by the Government of Denmark.
PURPOSE
The Copenhagen Conference marked the culmination of a two-year negotiating process to
enhance international climate change cooperation under the Bali Roadmap, launched by
COP 13 in December 2007. Close to 115 world leaders attended the joint COP and
COP/MOP high-level segment from 16-18 December, marking one of the largest gatherings
of world leaders outside of New York. The conference was subject to unprecedented public
and media attention, and more than 40,000 people, representing governments,
nongovernmental organizations, intergovernmental organizations, faith-based organizations,
media and UN agencies applied for accreditation at the conference.
Many hoped that the Copenhagen Climate Conference would be able to “seal the deal” and
result in a fair, ambitious and equitable agreement, setting the world towards a path to avoid
dangerous climate change. To this end, what many characterized as “intense negotiations”
took place over the two weeks at the level of experts, Ministers and Heads of State. But it
was not without controversy. Questions concerning transparency and process played out
during the meeting. Differences emerged, inter alia, on whether work should be carried out
in a smaller “friends of the chair” format as well as on a proposal by the Danish COP
Presidency to table two texts reflecting the work done by the AWGs. Many parties rejected
this idea, urging that only texts developed in the AWGs by parties should be used.
PARTIES INVOLVED
UNFCCC member countries
RESULT
 With 110 world leaders present and a single issue on the agenda, there has never been
a meeting like this. The countries that brokered the text, the US, China, India, South
Africa, Brazil and the EU, also reflects a world in which the balance of power has
significantly changed in the last 20 years.
 At a fundamental level, the conference redefined the debate between countries in
terms of awareness of climate science and support for action. There is no longer any
question that climate change is central to the political thinking of every country on the
planet.
 Public awareness has also massively increased. The vast campaigns run around the
world in the run-up to Copenhagen by governments, NGOs and business and the
media coverage of the issue and the summit have made addressing climate change
widely understood and discussed from the pubs of rural England to the bars of Beijing.
B)SIGNIFICANT CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
1. INCREASE IN CO2 EMISSIONS
The increasing concentration of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) in the atmosphere is chiefly
responsible for the phenomenon of climate change that, left unchecked, will threaten a host
of living organisms, humans included, for centuries or longer. The industrial revolution
spurred economic activities that had drastically elevated the rate of CO2 emissions. Since the
beginning of humanity's transition in the mid-eighteenth century from an agrarian economy
to an industrialised one, about 600 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 was released solely from the
process of burning fossil fuel to generate electricity. Data from the observatory in Mauna
Loa, Hawaii, shows that on average, CO2 emissions is increasing by 1.5 ppm (parts per
million) annually, which roughly translates to an extra 3.3 Gt of CO2 in the atmosphere
every year.
Graph of atmospheric CO2 measured in ppm (NASA, 2012)
As seen from the above figure, the concentration of atmospheric CO2 in the past centuries
alone far exceeded the maximum limits of atmospheric CO2 concentration achieved during
natural fluctuations in the carbon cycle over the past few hundred thousand years. It is
notable that, unlike other greenhouse gases, CO2 may not be eliminated through chemical
reactions once in the atmosphere. Instead, it participates in the carbon cycle and hence, is
distributed between carbon reservoirs that store and release CO2 in periodic intervals
ranging from years to millennia. As such, relying solely on natural environmental processes
to gradually remove the excess carbon in the atmosphere is likely to only yield substantial
results long after the impacts of climate change have been deeply felt by all living
inhabitants of the planet.
The sudden release of manmade carbon emissions into the atmosphere destabilises the
consistent predictability of the carbon cycle, resulting in the process we now call 'global
warming', an increase in global average temperatures that bears far-reaching consequences,
reflected by significant changes currently being experienced by the Earth's climate.
2. OTHER GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
Methane is responsible for approximately 20% of the total greenhouse effect. Methane
exhibits higher positive radiative forcing than CO2, i.e. a mole of atmospheric methane will
contribute more to the greenhouse effect than a mole of atmospheric CO2. On the flipside,
the concentration of atmospheric methane is far less than that of CO2, and methane will
persist in the atmosphere for a shorter period of time owing to its shorter half-life.
The largest sources of methane emissions come from landfills, enteric fermentation (from
domesticated livestock), paddy fields, and the burning of organic matter (such as the clearing
of peatland in Southeast Asia which led to the Southeast Asian transboundary haze). The
melting of permafrost in the pola regions also releases methane trapped in the ice into the
atmosphere. The greatest risk, however, is the potential release of massive volumes of
methane trapped under the seabed as methane clathrates, which would be an irreversible
process that could drastically change the climate entirely within the next thousands of years.
3. DEFORESTATION
Deforestation, the process of clearing massive areas of forests to allow for the land to be
used for other purposes, such as farming or urban development, can contribute to climate
change as well. Of particular concern is large-scale deforestation of natural forests without
sufficient reforestation elsewhere to replace the trees that were cleared.
4. VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
Volcanic activity occurs frequently over the course of Earth’s history and is an example of
natural factors that can also impact the climate temporarily. Volcanoes release large
quantities of ash and air pollutants (such as sulphur dioxide, which is converted to sulphuric
acid aerosols) during an eruption, which temporarily modifies the atmospheric composition,
particular for larger eruptions. Volcanic pollutants can linger in the stratosphere for a couple
of years, leading to short term global cooling by offsetting the gradual rise in temperatures
globally.
C)EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
1. RISING TEMPERATURES
The rise in average global temperatures, as a direct result of increased greenhouse gas
concentration (particularly CO2 and methane) in the atmosphere has sets off a cascade of
events that can lead to major shifts to the climates in different parts of the world. This
segment will aim to explore not just the impact that global warming will have on the climate,
but also delve into how each region of the world will likely be affected in the near future.
2. RISING SEA LEVELS
The rise in sea levels can be attributed to two main causes. The first is the melting of
glaciers, sea ice and ice sheets, especially those located closer to the north and south poles.
One notable instance was the sheet of ice that broke off from the Petermann Glacier in the
north western coast of Greenland in August 2010, producing an iceberg with a surface area
that spanned 260 square kilometers. Once the iceberg began drifting southwards via ocean
currents, heading towards warmer waters, it will break up and eventually melt completely
over the ensuing years. Meanwhile, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet rivals Greenland in
garnering the most attention for demonstrating the rapidly increasing rate of melting ice. The
melting of glaciers in the Amundsen Sea currently contributes to about 0.24mm of global
rising sea levels per year. Furthermore, warming ocean waters will accelerate the trend of
large chunks of ice melting at an increasing rate.
As approximately 24,064,000 cubic kilometers of water, or 1.7% of all water on Earth, are
locked in ice caps, glaciers and permanent snow, the melting of these ice bodies will
significantly raise sea water levels worldwide.
The second main cause is the gradual warming of ocean waters. As the temperature of water
increases, it expands. Thermal expansion of ocean waters exacerbates the effects of melting
ice, contributing as much as 70-75% of sea level rise. However, calculating an accurate
prediction of future rates of sea level rise and the subsequent sea level heights for the century
is a monumentally complex challenge for existing climate models. Competing climate
models adopt different assumptions about the magnitude of various factors that can influence
the climate. Not to mention, these models have their own intrinsic uncertainties to deal with.
As an example, the estimated water level rise by 2100 caused solely by melting glaciers and
ice caps is somewhere between the ranges of 10cm to 90cm. This difficulty in predicting the
true extent of rising sea levels poses a challenge for countries wanting to plan ahead,
although there is general scientific consensus that the extent of sea level rise will definitely
be severe enough to disrupt the lives of many individuals, particularly for those living in
coastal or low-lying regions.
3. DROUGHTS
Droughts are defined as periods where the amount of precipitation in a certain region falls
below the average frequency. This results in the volume of water stored in freshwater
sources to be depleted, running the risk of diminishing overall agricultural output.
The area surrounding the Mediterranean as well as both northern and southern Africa will
likely experience lowered volumes of precipitation in the years to come. Between 75 million
and 250 million more people face greater prospects of water scarcity. This affects the
availability of potable water for direct consumption and reduces the area of arable land for
growing crops. Central Asia, southern Australia, southern Europe, and parts of America, will
face a similar predicament with decreased rainfall.
4. FLOODS
Conversely, global warming can cause significant increases in rainfall in other parts of the
world. This increased precipitation rate can result in severe flooding, with the impact on
coastal regions worsened by the rising sea levels. The entirety of Asia, except central Asia,
can look forward to having greater rainfall. The higher precipitation will hasten the retreat of
the Himalayan glaciers, decreasing river flow of major rivers flowing down from the
Himalayas (e.g. Ganga, Brahmaputra, Indus) and contributing to water shortages
downstream, particularly in areas with a high population density. The increased rainfall will
also lead to more flooding along the extensive stretch of river deltas, which are also heavily
populated, culminating in the destruction of crops, infrastructure and loss of lives.
5. TROPICAL STORMS
While the science behind the exact relationship between global warming and tropical storms
(referred to as typhoons in the northern pacific and hurricanes in the Caribbean) is still
uncertain, what is certain is that the increased frequency of intense tropical storms striking
coastal regions is a trend that will continue to persist. Tropical storms are known to wreak
havoc on building infrastructure and cause severe flash floods when they hit land. Even
though regions which are used to weathering tropical storms, like Southeast Asia, may have
existing measures in place to withstand future impacts and limit damage caused by the
storms, the greater intensity of future storms may prove to overwhelm current protective
measures. Moreover, more speculative predictions posit that drastic climate change might
alter the usual pathways taken by seasonal tropical cyclones, bringing the path of destruction
to new areas unfamiliar with tropical storms, and unprepared to deal with the ensuing
devastation.
6. LOSS OF CARBON SINKS
Highly dense tropical forests can act as an effective method for carbon sequestration.
Existing tropical forests, with focus on the bulk that are found in South America, Asia, and
Central Africa, can absorb about 18% of anthropogenic carbon released from fossil fuel
burning. However, with the continued deforestation in areas like the Amazon rainforests and
the Southeast Asian rainforests for economic growth, the effectiveness of this natural carbon
storage system is reduced.
7. DESERTIFICATION
Desertification is defined, under the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification,
to be “land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid regions resulting from various
factors, including climatic variations and human activities.” In other words, it is the
encroachment of deserts into land that had once been fertile. In China, skyrocketing
populations of ruminants (cattle, sheep and goat) in China’s northern and western provinces
following a 1978 economic reform led to uncontrolled grazing which cleared the grasslands,
allowing the topsoil to loosen and converting colossal areas of land into desert. Nigeria is
currently losing approximately 867,000 acres of fertile land annually to expanding deserts.
As long as Nigeria’s livestock population continues to go beyond sustainable levels of
grassland growth, the desertification in Nigeria’s northern region will only worsen over time.
A side effect of desertification is the worsening of dust storms, strong winds that carry the
loose topsoil of deserts across long distances. The Bodélé Depression, located in the Sahara
Desert, is the origin of approximately 1.3 billion tons of wind-borne soil yearly, a dramatic
tenfold increase compared to 1947. In sum, the dust storms leaving Africa for the Atlantic
oceans, about 3 billion tons per year, reduces the amount of fertile soil left in Africa for crop
growth. Furthermore, dust storms can cause significant damage to growing crops, livestocks,
and even interrupt human transportation due to poor visibility, as the case study of the 1993
dust storm in Gansu province, China aptly demonstrates.
D)
CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
SOCIETY
Loss of coastal land
Low-lying lands geographically close to seas or major water bodies are at the forefront of the
most immediate impact of climate change. Rising sea levels have already begun to threaten
the coastlines of both island nations and very densely-populated coastal cities. The enhanced
frequency of flooding that will inundate these cities within the next couple of decades will
cause widespread destruction to property and lives. Governments would be forced to make
difficult decisions to adapt to the pernicious disaster unfolding before them, and prepare to
either relocate millions of their citizens away from coastal regions, or shore up coastline
defenses against the rising tides.
Environmental Refugees
Major disruptions to the livelihoods of citizens living in areas devastated by climate change
will become a source for a deluge of refugees migrating elsewhere, either within or beyond
their nation’s borders, to escape disasters and seek refuge from the menacing grip of climate
change.
‘Rising-sea refugees’ will have to be relocated to higher grounds to avoid rising sea levels
and the frequent flooding associated with it. Furthermore, tropical storms brought about by
global warming can also cause sufficient devastation to persuade inhabitants to migrate
inland. In August 2005, the onset of Hurricane Katrina along the US Gulf Coast forced the
evacuation of over a million residents living in New Orleans, Louisiana. Among that million,
only 700,000 eventually returned to New Orleans. The remaining 300,000 became refugees
within their own state, having to start a new life after losing everything in the hurricane and
floods. The International Institute for
Environment and Development found in a study that 634 million people current reside in
coastal regions at 10m over sea levels or less. These ‘Low Elevation Coastal Zones’ are now
most prone to being the source of a long-term global refugee crisis in the near future. The
expansion of deserts is yet another source of refugees. A UN conference in 2006 on the
desertification in Tunisia predicted that around 60 million people will be displaced from sub
Saharan Africa and will move to North Africa and Europe. In Mexico, about 1000 square
kilometres of farmland is abandoned every year due to desertification, impelling mass
migration of Mexicans which will further crowd Mexican cities, with some even crossing the
Mexico-US borders to settle in US territories.
Famines
Famines will become more widespread over the following decades, compounding the
already pressing food security issues faced by developing regions of the world. Melting
glaciers in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau will reduce the flow of water to major rivers in
Asia. During the dry season when farmers at the river basins require the greatest volumes of
waters for irrigation of crops, the decreased flow of water will seriously diminish agricultural
productivity. The Yellow River (Yangtze) basin in China is responsible for more than 65
million tonnes (or 50%) of China’s annual rice harvest, and is where 369 million Chinese
citizens currently reside. The shrinking of river flows during dry seasons is projected to be
an impending disaster, especially once factoring in the record population growths in both
China and India. The combination of a rapidly expanding demographic coupled with
growing food shortages will threaten not just the countries directly involved in agriculture,
but also the rest of the world relying on their agricultural exports for food.
Water Scarcity
As population size increases, demand for food increases proportionally. The global
agriculture industry uses as much as 70% of all water usage, primarily for irrigation. Greater
volumes of water are drawn from aquifers to sustain agricultural production, occasionally,
faster than the rate in which the groundwater can be replenished. The overexploitation of
aquifers results in falling water tables in regions that desperately need the freshwater to
irrigate their crops. The depletion of these wells is a prevalent issues in at least 20 countries,
of which 3 of them (China, India, USA) produce a combined total of 50% of global grain
supply.
Health Risks
As a natural consequence of increased pollution, malnutrition and the dearth of clean,
potable water, regions already stricken with poverty will continue to suffer from poor human
health and an increase in disease outbreaks. With extreme high temperatures being more
common, the increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves can cause higher mortality rates
from heat-related illnesses. Additionally, certain disease carriers like mosquitoes thrive in
warmer climates, and hence are better able to survive and populate areas further away from
tropical regions, like the mid-latitudes. Of course, the risk of a disease outbreak is still
largely dependent on how countries are able to manage their public health infrastructure, and
is still subject to the socio-economic status of the populace as well as local environmental
conditions.
Conflicts
With resources such as food, land and water growing in scarcity, tensions between countries
may increase due to competition and disagreements over the legal rights for claiming
ownership of these natural resources. Conflicts can thus break out as a result of unresolved
disputes between countries. Meanwhile, the influx of environmental refugees into more
stable regions might raise social tensions over issues like cultural assimilation and the
availability of job opportunities.
E)MAJOR STAKEHOLDERS AND THEIR POSITIONS
United States of America
The United States is commonly regarded as one of the largest contributors to global
warming; ranking second in the world for greenhouse gas emissions, the largest importer of
oil, gas, and second largest in coal (EPA). The United States is also a major exporter of oil
(third in the world) and relies heavily on fossil fuels for its electricity. According to the EPA,
30% of the United States’ greenhouse gas production is a direct result of its electricity
production. 67% of the country's electricity is produced using fossil fuels. With electricity
demands estimated by the United States Electrical Information Administration to grow by
24% by 2040.
The sector most vulnerable to climate change is its agricultural sector. With its agricultural
sector producing roughly 25% of the world's grain and contributing approximately $300
billion a year to the global economy. Small changes in average global temperature can affect
crop yields between 10% - 36%. Rising global temperatures cost the nation’s agricultural
sector billions of dollars a year by reducing crop yields, increasing growth of weeds, pests,
and fungi, as well as dropping the nutritional value of American-grown crops. According to
the International Science Times, higher carbon dioxide levels result in lower nutritional
values which risks raising malnutrition rates to an estimate of 63 million lost lives by 2050
based on American crop yields alone.
Since the agricultural industry would be one of the most globally impacted sectors, a glance
at an EPA drawn graph regarding past trends show that majority of decreases in crop yields
(especially the largest and most damaging) were due to some climatic effect (eg. droughts,
floods, and blight). With the effects of global warming becoming more significant each year,
the United States is prepared to implement a “Clean Power Plan” (proposed in 2014 by the
Obama administration) by 2030 possibly saving 1.7 trillion dollars and reducing carbon
dioxide emissions by 42%. However, under Trump’s administration, it is unlikely that the
US will be playing a key role in ratifying the Paris Climate Change agreements as they will
be pursuing opportunities that benefit the country economically despite cutting corners on
the climate change front. It is highly likely that carbon emissions from the US will increase
in the near future as a result of advancing other sector and industries.
China
China contributes the highest percentage of carbon emissions in the world. Human activity is
the main cause of greenhouse gas emissions and pollution. Air pollution is still rampant
within the country, unhealthy air quality affecting the health of millions with around 1.6
million peopledying annually. Rapidly rising temperatures have been translating to melting
glaciers in Northern China, glacier lakes overflowing and producing floods and mudslides in
mountainous areas, decrease of water volume in major rivers such as the Yangtze River and
the Yellow River, low-lying coastal cities such as Shanghai risk the possibility of ‘sinking’
as sea levels rise, coral bleaching in the South China Sea, and a loss of biodiversity after
rapid industrialisation.
China has introduced several climate and energy policies such as Cap-and-Trade programs to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions in trading in particular. The Guiding Policy Framework is
China’s 13th’s five year plan where they intend on reducing energy intensity by 15% and
carbon intensity by 18%. Energy consumption will be capped at 5 billions tons of coal, the
share of energy sourced from non-renewable sources will increase to 15%. Their main goal
is to reduce carbon intensity by 48% by 2020 which will aid in achieving its Paris
Agreement pledge to reduce carbon emissions by 60% - 65% by 2030.
China has been rapidly adapting to create a sustainable economy and future. However, its
transparency and data accuracy can still be enhanced, as well as strengthening their policy
enforcement to ensure industries do not exploit raw materials excessively or abuse the
environment.
Russian Federation
The climate of the Russian Federation has been warming at a rate 2.5 times faster than the
average country. The temperature has risen 0.42˚C every decade since 1976. If the country
continues to warm at such a fast rate, it could hurt the country’s energy infrastructures. The
country’s main impact of climate change is the growth of unusual meteorological
phenomena such as the increase in droughts, floods, ice melting, forest fires and sea levels
across the large country. Its proximity to the Arctic region makes the country especially
vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. 19% of the world’s forest reserves, based on
surface area, are in Russia. Specifically, boreal forests are located in high Northern latitudes
and consist of coniferous trees (pine, larch) and deciduous plans (poplar, birch). Annually,
boreal forests absorb an estimated 1.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. In total, Russian
forests have absorbed 300-600 million of the main greenhouse gas. However, the Russian
Academy of Science have found that the unstable forest policies and negative climate change
impacts will result the net carbon dioxide absorption by the forests to drop to zero by the mid
2040s. Boreal forests are not receiving enough attention in United Nations negotiation as this
is a crucial sink needed to absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.
The Russian Federation intends to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 25% - 35% by
2030. However, some assessments claim Russia’s target is inadequate and further measures
must be taken to ensure a ‘fair’ approach to maintain global temperature below 2˚C. The
Russian government intends to rely heavily on the “Carbon Sink” effect where the forests
will absorb the bulk of the greenhouse gas emissions but in order to do so, the country must
reduces its carbon emissions by even less than the targets outlined in their plan.
Japan
In the next few decades, it is projected that climate change will greatly alter the intricate
balance of Japan’s seasons, agriculture, nutrition, and more industries. Major impacts include
rising sea levels and flooding, a reduction in rice production, an even greater pressure from
the large ageing population, snow will melt earlier, and clean drinking water will be treated
more valuably.
Japan imports approximately 60% of their food consumption and this percentage is predicted
to increase as rice production decreases. The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI)
found that for each “1˚C rise in average temperature, rice yield drops by about 10%”. Rice
pollination is incredibly sensitive to temperature and warmer conditions may lead to sterility.
Farmers will have to being transplanting their crops later in the year to ensure the crops do
not flower during the hottest duration of the year.
Osaka, the economic and commercial center of Japan, is a victim to rising sea levels, which
will lead to coastal flooding, affecting millions of people. If sea levels rise to one metre, it
could inundate around 4 million people and 2,339 square kilometres of land.
Japan’s action plan to fight climate change outlines their commitment toward reducing
greenhouse gas emissions by 26% by 2030. The inventions of cutting-edge technology have
contributed a part to global emission reductions and the coping response of the nation after
frequent natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis. For
example, the iron and steel mills industries have contributed in reducing 50 million tons of
carbon dioxide annually. Japan seeks to further promote similar initiatives across the private
sector to increase official development assistance and public finances to fund initiatives.
Indonesia
Indonesia is ranked as the 5th largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world due to human
induced climate change. The country is a major coal producer and is responsible for the
frequent deforestations of its tropical forests and peatlands to convert into palm oil
plantations. According to the World Resources Institute (WRI), 61% of greenhouse gas
emissions come from land use. Deforestation is the leading cause of climate change rather
than the country’s cars and power plants.
Indonesia is the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change with 80,000 kilometres of
coastline and 17,500 islands. Fluctuating weather patterns, such as erratic droughts and
rainfall, have made it increasingly challenging for farmers to plant and harvest crops. Not
only does climate change affect numerous species of flora and fauna in the forests, haze
created by man induced forest fires affect the health of people in Indonesia and their
neighbouring countries.
The year 2015 saw 94,192 Indonesian forest fires and according to VU University of
Amsterdam, who tracks global carbon emissions from wildfires, approximately 995 million
metric tons of carbon dioxide was emitted. Fire emission from Indonesia alone account for
13-40% of the average annual global carbon emissions from fossil fuels. If the situation
continues to worsen, it could greatly increase the likelihood of a global El Niño event.
As the US ranks second in contributing the most carbon emissions, a simple comparison (in
the figure above) establishes that Indonesia’s forest fires significantly increase the world’s
carbon emissions.
After years of receiving international pressure to gain better control of land-management,
Indonesia’s parliament ratified the Paris Agreement on climate change on the 19th of
October 2016, to commit towards reducing toxic carbon emissions and tackling global
warming. Indonesia plans to tackle climate change by pledging to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions by 29% by 2030.
Sweden
Sweden has been one of the most active countries in regards to addressing greenhouse gas
emissions and forming policies. Fifty percent of the nation’s energy supply comes from
renewable energy sources.
The typical features of the Swedish climate include a cold climate with cold winds. Climate
change and global warming have affected the normal temperature and climate of the country.
Recently, the average annual temperature has been 1˚C warmer than during the 20th century.
In addition, there has been an increase in extreme weather events, such as storms, floods,
landslides and coastal erosion, which have placed major strains on the function of society.
Sweden has taken great initiative in tackling the issue by financing small island nations and
less economically developed countries that are forced to cope with the consequences of
climate change. During the COP21 climate change conference in Paris, the Swedish
government announced their intention to provide SEK 150 million to the Adaptation Fund
and SEK 100 million to the Least Developed Countries Fund.
Sweden has aimed to neutralise its greenhouse gas emissions and become carbon neutral by
2045. The Paris climate change agreement has further encouraged seven of eight
parliamentary parties to support the proposal for rapid greenhouse gas emission cuts. The
Swedish government aims to achieve this goal by investing in scientific research on human
induced climate change and innovative sustainable solutions for efficient energy sources.
Carbon taxes for power-intensive industries and green incentives have further encouraged
Swedish citizens to adopt a more sustainable lifestyle and has helped the Swedish economy
grow sustainably. The Swedish Environmental Code Legislation has played a crucial role in
environmental efforts by prioritising human health, environment, biological diversity, and
the proper management of physical environments and materials.
F)QUESTIONS A RESOLUTION MUST ANSWER
• How do the proposed solutions contribute to countries either adapting to climate change, or
mitigating its harmful impacts?
• Taking into consideration the year of the council session, and the international political
dynamics of that time period, will the ideas proposed be widely supported?
• Are the ideas feasible and realistic?
• Are the solutions easily adopted by governments?
• To what extent do these ideas aim to address the root causes of climate change?
• How willing would governments be to ratify the agreements made in the resolution?
G)
BRIEF OUTLINE OF THE TIMELINE
April 30th 2017
US President Trump pulls away from the Paris Climate Conference quoting in a tweet “Paris
Climate Agreement is a Chinese Hoax, and it is a waste of time and money”
May 2017
Heads of State of Maldives, Micronesia, and Bahamas hold a meeting (28th May) where
they discuss the following issues and come to the following conclusions:1. Creation of a Unified Pact for the Protection and Welfare of the people from the above
mentioned countries in issues not limited to:a. Rise in Sea Level
b. Disease Break out
c. Natural Disasters
2. The pact is named as the Bahnesiadives Pact and it elucidates the urgent requirements of
such countries.
3. The heads plan to strengthen the pact with the help of a P-5 Country so as to provide
complete protection and basic life support to their citizens.
June 2017
President Trump comments on the recent pact made between the 3 countries and calls it “A
way for small, irrelevant islands to strengthen their economies by stealing money over
baseless facts”
July 2017
1. The World Health Agency schedules a meeting with the Heads of State of all member
nations in December 2017.
2. President Trump declines the meeting Invitation.
August 2017
The United Kingdom joins in the Bahnesiadives Pact and declares the following:1. Provision of Basic Life and Health amenities if people from the above 3 countries get
displaced or if their life is under a constant threat.
2. Economic help to the parties.
In return the UK government negotiates a free trade agreement over a list of items.
September 2017
Indonesia launches their first government oriented solar electricity scheme for houses and
government buildings.
UK holds its first meet with the European Union committee, no common solution reached.
UK plans to hold second conference for talks in December.
Afghanistan launches its first climate related official program to protect its citizens from
pollution.
October 2017
The United Nations decides to hold another climate conference in January 2019 to address
the recent influx of sea level rise and population rise.
Population expected to touch 8 billion by the following year.
November 2017
Nepal orders all upcoming building and housing projects at a higher altitude as the head of
state quotes “ You never know what the future holds, whatever it does we must be ready for
it “
2. The Nepal Head of State also advises neighbouring countries to adopt similar methods to
protect their citizens.
December 2017
UN declares the conference on the 21st of January 2019 in Maldives. The UN calls upon all
its member nations to attend this conference and also observe the sea level rise currently
taking place in Maldives.
The UN names the conference as the MALDIVAN CONFERENCE 2k19. UN Secretary
General says this conference will be the first revolutionary step towards climate change.
Details about this conference are set to be released later.
The United Nations Secretary General calls upon all the Heads of State to attend this
conference in 2019.
The US President doesn’t show his support towards the same.
January 2018
An Earth Quake takes place 926 kms away from the eastern cost of Japan. Its magnitude is
graded as 7.0 and the tsunami results in the death of 321 and injures 5001.
This event highlighted the after effects of climate change.
Japanese Prime Minister expresses his concern over climate change and agrees to be a part of
the Maldivian Conference 2019.
February - April 2018
Many Countries including China and Russia send aid to Japanese government. Japan is still
in shock. The UN also extends a hand and supports Japan.
Global Warming levels seen higher than ever before, sea level rises by 3 cm in early April.
Countries in the Bahnesiadives pact express emergency. Kiribati and Bahamas joins the pact.
May-June 2018
The Japanese Government is now stable.
Heat levels are rising in the Indian Capital; it rises to 55C in early May.
The Indian government restarts the ODD-EVEN Car plan in 4 major cities for 1 whole
month.
Argentina takes note and does the same.
July - August 2018
41 lakes have died up across the world; the water scarcity situation is being seen in areas
previously affected by poverty.
Countries such as UK, Russia, Nepal, etc. are sending water to many nations in Africa,
Eastern Asia.
October 2018
The UN declares its motives for the MALDIVAN conference 2019
1.
Introduction of new Updates measures to limit global warming
2.
Combat sea level Rise
3.
Protection of Islands in Threat to the upcoming dangers.
150 nations’ Heads of state accept the proposal to attend the conference.
December 2019
The French Head of State urges governments around the world to engage in this conference
and present their current stance. He called the World a FAMILY.
January 2019
The MALDIVAN Conference leads to following developments:1. Limiting the usage of coal for producing electricity to less than 10% in every country by
2030
2. Introducing new government regulations for garbage control in the oceans and seas
3. Waste Management especially in Landfills needs to be restricted for chemicals and soil
harming wastes.
4. All air polluting devices such as fireworks, production needs to further decreased to limit
air pollution.
5.
Introducing more regulations for Electric Cars and Electric Trains.
6.
Lowering Carbon Emissions for selected 35 countries.
7.
Introducing of new programs for assisting countries currently in threat to sea rise
Feb- June 2019
Carbon emission level increases to 5% in US.
December - January 2019-20
The ice levels reach unprecedented levels. Chicago, Toronto, Moscow, and many major
cities are experiencing unparalleled increase in snow fall. More jobs are being created in the
US, President Trumps Approval Rating shoots up to 62%.
June 2020
UK leaves EU without any deal.
November 2020
Donald Trump is re-elected President of the United States of America.
February 2021
A bomb blast takes place near Pevek Russia which leads to the world’s largest active nuclear
plant secretly buried under the snow.
The details are under investigation.
August 2021
It is later identified that the US had played a role in the bomb blast after they discovered the
Nuclear power plant. The power plant was described to be 90% bigger than a normal power
plant.
December 2021
The poisonous radioactive gases released from the power plant start affecting nearby cities
and according to scientists it is expected to form a blanket around the earth; increasing global
warming levels by 7% which would be catastrophic for all life forms and humanity as a
whole.
April 2022
The majority of the blanket is expected to influence regions upto the equator.
Inhabitants are encouraged to slowly begin migrating to northern regions.
August 2023
Global sea level has increased nearly three feet. Regions that are close to sea-level have
encountered heavy flooding and as a result, the civilians residing in these areas have been
evacuated to areas of higher altitude. This includes all the regions in which the water levels
have made it impossible to live in.
October 2023
Equatorial nations including (Sao Tome and Principe, Gabon, DRC, Uganda, Maldives,
Kenya, Kiribati, Ecuador, Brazil) are strictly urged by the UN to begin resettlement
campaigns due to rapidly rising temperatures.
Similar need is faced by low lying regions due to rapidly rising sea levels .
January 2024
Mass displacement of civilians due to ongoing climate crisis causes the United Nations
Commissioner for Refugees to declare the situation as a refugee crisis.
Refugees have begun to spread all across the world in search for new homes. Most people
call them climate refugees but some call them climate migrants who shouldn’t have the right
to enter their nations. Estimates total the amount of climate refugees to have surpassed 100
million people. Internally displaced people have also been on the rise. These are people who
remain in their own countries searching for homes.
to be continued………….