Download Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario Report

Energy-Water-Climate Change
Scenario Report
Scenario Planning Steering Group
FINAL—Approved by SPSG 05-05-2015
155 North 400 West, Suite 200
Salt Lake City, Utah 84103-1114
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
2
Executive Summary
In June, 2014, WECC introduced its new Integrated Reliability Assurance Model, which outlines the
process through which WECC will identify, analyze, and address the top reliability challenges facing the
Western Interconnection. One of the identified challenges is the impacts of climate changes. Climates
are constantly changing at both the global and more granular levels. Two key questions for WECC to
consider are:
1. What changes to the environment, in addition to increased average global temperature, might
occur as a result of global changes?
2. Would these changes impact the electrical reliability of the Western Interconnection?
Changes to climactic conditions have the potential to cause electric system impacts in the Western
Interconnection in a number of ways, specifically, with higher temperatures, drought and extreme
weather. If not mitigated through normal and potential event focused planning and operating
practices, these system impacts could pose significant risks to the reliability of the electricity grid in the
Western Interconnection. WECC has a keen interest in identifying and addressing reliability risks that
could arise in the 20-year planning horizon. While creating conceptual mitigation measures is beyond
the scope of WECC’s responsibilities, the results of this scenario planning effort could lead to possible
mitigation measures to be explored further by other organizations.
The Scenario Planning Steering Group (SPSG) proposes a future scenario that identifies the impacts of a
changed environment on the electric system and a method to correlate impacts with associated
electric reliability risks that could result from an average global temperature increase of 3° F. by 2034.
This scenario is designed to identify strategic choices for planners and other stakeholders in the 20year planning horizon. This report also describes other drivers for the scenario, potential electric
system impacts, potential reliability risks, possible early indicators of potential reliability risks, a
narrative description of the scenario and references used to create the scenario and identify impacts
and associated risks.
Information presented to the SPSG in 2014 also suggests that electric and water utility managers and
operators have not identified all of the potential opportunities for or benefits of coordinated
operations. This report explores some of the opportunities for electric and water system planners and
operators to collaborate more closely.
This report discusses in very broad terms potential changes to the environment that could result from
a rise in average global temperature and identifies a range of potential impacts to the electrical system
that could reduce the reliability of the Western Interconnection. Much more detailed work is required
to:
•
W
Predict the types, magnitudes, locations, frequencies and other critical characteristics of the
environmental changes that could accompany a rise in average global temperature;
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
3
•
Determine the specific impacts of those environmental changes on the electrical network; and
•
Assess the extent to which those impacts could present risks to the reliability of the Western
Interconnection.
WECC plans to continue work in these areas to build on the knowledge gained in preparing this
scenario report.
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
4
Table of Contents
Executive Summary........................................................................................................................... 2
Table of Contents .............................................................................................................................. 4
Introduction and Purpose.................................................................................................................. 5
Overview of Status of Climate Change ............................................................................................... 6
Climate Change Impacts ......................................................................................................................... 9
Energy-Water Nexus and Climate Change ............................................................................................ 11
WECC’s Approach to Connecting Energy, Water, Climate Change and Reliability............................... 11
Energy-Water-Climate Change (EWCC) Scenario .............................................................................. 13
Focus Question ..................................................................................................................................... 13
Scenario Narrative ................................................................................................................................ 13
Scenario Drivers .................................................................................................................................... 16
The Water/Energy Nexus ...................................................................................................................... 19
Possible Scenario Early Indicators ........................................................................................................ 20
Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Electricity Grid ...................................................... 22
Correlating System Impacts to Potential Reliability Risks .................................................................... 25
Assessing Risk to Electric Service Reliability ..................................................................................... 26
Potential Electric Reliability Risks ......................................................................................................... 26
Reliability Risk Mitigation ..................................................................................................................... 28
Appendix 1: References & Sources: ................................................................................................. 30
Appendix 2: Relevant Event-Pattern-Structure (EPS) Reports ........................................................... 31
Appendix 3: Managing Risks to Transmission and Distribution ......................................................... 33
Appendix 4: Potential Reliability Risks for Transmission Assets ........................................................ 35
Appendix 5: Potential Reliability Risks for Generation Assets........................................................... 36
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
5
Introduction and Purpose
The Scenario Planning Steering Group (SPSG) is leading an initiative through this scenario report to:
1. Describe a plausible future in 2034 in which climate changes are characterized by a 3° F.
average global temperature rise (relative to the average value for 1960 to 1979);
2. Identify potential impacts to the electric system from the changing climate;
3. Explore the interactive impacts of the nexus between energy and water;
4. Identify potential risks to the reliability of the Bulk Electric System in the Western
Interconnection as a result of changes to the climate; and
5. Suggest possible mitigation measures that could be considered to address identified reliability
risks.
The first item is developed in this report. The second, third and fourth items, while addressed at a
conceptual level in this report, will require additional development work.
WECC’s mission is to foster and promote reliability and efficient coordination in the Western
Interconnection. This report is built upon discussions and workshops in 2014 in which the SPSG sought
to understand changes to the climate that could occur within the 20-year planning horizon, how those
changes might affect electric reliability in the Western Interconnection and which actions should be
priorities for planners to address the most significant potential reliability impacts. This work supports
the SPSG’s charge to provide strategic guidance to TEPPC on transmission planning under conditions of
future uncertainty.
Additionally, this report begins to explore the nexus between electricity and water. While electric and
water utility services are different, they are related in that electric service providers use, transform and
consume significant amounts of water and water service providers use significant amounts of
electricity. Further, both electricity and water service providers will be impacted significantly by
changes to the climate.
WECC’s goal in developing this scenario is to apply the scenario planning process to identify strategic
choices that will enable WECC to respond effectively to reliability challenges that may result from
changes to the climate. Climate changes, other than related extreme weather events, occur slowly,
but have long-term, and in some cases permanent, impacts. Likewise, planning for electric reliability is
a long-term effort. Changes to the grid usually require many years to plan develop and implement,
and grid assets usually have a lifetime spanning many decades. The similar timeframes for climate
change and reliability planning make this scenario a potentially very useful planning tool.
This scenario, however, is a somewhat abridged product. Scenario development usually considers a
broad range of drivers that might impact the future state of the scenario. The SPSG chose to focus this
scenario on one primary driver—changes to the climate represented by a 3° F. average global
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
6
temperature rise from its average value between 1960 and 1979 to its value in 2034—resulting in
related changes to water availability, ambient temperature, weather-related impacts and other factors
described more fully later in the report. It did not consider directly economic growth, technological
change, fuel prices or other drivers because they were considered when the SPSG developed the initial
four scenarios in 2012. A complete scenario development that addresses all drivers would be a possible
broader effort for future consideration.
Several discussions during 2014 contributed to the development of this scenario. WECC’s Scenario
Planning Steering Group (SPSG) sponsored a workshop to consider issues related to the nexus of
energy and water as they may be impacted by changes to the climate. The workshop was designed to
review current research and to deepen the SPSG’s understanding of the underlying issues related to
the nexus between energy, water and climate change 1. Climate scientists, water experts and
representatives of a variety of water interests joined SPSG stakeholders to gain better understandings
of where these two important sectors have common interests and to consider how climate change and
variability challenges both sectors with common risks that might call for coordinated and cooperative
management across both sectors’ future planning, investment, and operations. Both sectors share
public interest responsibilities to provide continuous and reliable service at reasonable costs, and both
sectors serve the same customers. The first step, taken in the SPSG workshop, was to discuss the
challenges that need to be addressed.
The SPSG has chosen to focus ongoing work more directly on potential climate change impacts on the
electric system and an evaluation of possible associated risks to electric reliability. The SPSG has
started work to develop a new scenario exploring how electric reliability might be affected by changes
to the climate. Specifically, the new scenario focuses on changes to the environment resulting from a
3° F increase in global average temperature and identifies a range of possible impacts to the Western
Interconnection. In addition, it identifies generic potential risks to electric reliability that could result
from system impacts of climate change. This report does not address the underlying causes of climate
change. Rather, it seeks to contribute (along with other efforts within WECC) to the analysis of
potential risk to electric reliability in the Western Interconnection that could occur as a result of
changes to the climate.
Overview of Status of Climate Change
Most climate scientists, and many individuals within the general population, acknowledge that climate
change is occurring with effects across the world and throughout the global economy. According to
the National Research Council, “Average global temperatures are expected to increase by 2°F to 11.5°F by
1
Information and reports from the October 15, 2014 workshop are available on the meeting web page
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
7
2100, depending on the level of future greenhouse gas emissions, and the outcomes from various climate
models. 2
There is some uncertainty about how much the climate will change in the coming years. Research is
ongoing about climate change impacts in many fields besides the electric energy industry including
agriculture, water resources, coastal protection, insurance, financial investments and risk assessments,
disaster protection and recovery, public health responses to spreading pathogens, military and national
security, land use, hunting and fishing.
A key factor in anticipating and planning for possible future impacts of climate change is the
anticipated future average global temperature. The average global temperature is likely to affect many
environmental factors that could impact the electric grid including weather patterns, ambient
temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events. While most climate scientists acknowledge that
climate change is occurring, there is a range of estimates about the degree to which climate change
might affect the average global temperature. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ICPP)
has published a method for estimating future global average temperatures based on the
“Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP),” a factor that is based on the atmospheric
concentrations of several categories of emissions based on assumptions about economic activity,
energy sources, population growth and other socio-economic factors. 3 If one assumes a value for RCP,
it can be translated into a range of potential future global temperature increases relative to a given
reference point. In this scenario report, the reference point for average global temperature changes is
the average value for 1960 to 1979. A recent study cited by many climate scientists is titled “Climate
Change 2014” and was published by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). According to
that report RCP values that could be realized between now and 2100 range from a low of 2.6 to a high
of 8.5. At the lower end, the mean value for average global temperature increase by 2034 relative to
the reference point for an RCP of 2.6 would be about 1.8oF. If RCP were at the upper end (8.5), the
mean value for average global temperature rise would be about 3.6oF.
The following Figure from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency shows a range of possible future
average global temperatures:
2
NRC (2010), “Advancing the Science of Climate Change;” National Research Council; The National Academies Press,
Washington, DC, USA.
3
“Climate Change 2014,” IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
8
Figure 1: Observed and Projected Changes in Global Average Temperature
4
Observed and projected changes in global average temperature under three no-policy emissions
scenarios. The shaded areas show the likely ranges while the lines show the central projections from a set
of climate models. A wider range of model types shows outcomes from 2 to 11.5°F. Changes are relative
to the 1960-1979 average.
Although it is not possible to predict which average global temperature rise value might be realized in
the next 20 years, the SPSG has chosen to plan for an average global temperature (AGT) rise of 3°F. by
2034, compared to the average value of the average global temperature from 1960 through 1. This
approach is considered a reasonable trajectory and is consistent with the highest-emission
temperature rise scenario shown above in Figure 1. This approach is not predicting that the average
global temperature will rise by 3o F. by 2034, recognizing that the scientifically-assessed range of
potential average global temperature rise is wide. Rather, it suggests that it would be prudent to
consider strategic planning options to address electric and water reliability risks that could occur were
this level of global temperature rise to occur. This target is neither as high as suggested in some
forecasts nor as low as included in others. The SPSG considered the 3° F. global temperature rise to be
4
U.S. EPA “Future Climate Change,” (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html)
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
9
a reasonable planning target, based on its interpretation of the projections shown in Figure 1. By
considering strategic planning options to address electric and water reliability risks that could occur
were this level of global temperature rise to occur, transmission planners should be able to prepare for
impacts resulting from lower levels of climate change or for the same level of climate change occurring
later.
The SPSG is not predicting that this temperature rise will occur, but is using it in this scenario based on
the belief that planning for the average global temperature rise at the higher end of the range will
equip planners to adapt to lesser changes. Further, if the lowest-emission future comes to pass, a 3° F.
average global temperature rise would not be expected until around 2060 and plans developed now
would have additional implementation time.
The SPSG agreed not to focus on the causes of the observed global temperature rise; the validity of the
scenario, its results and further analytical work based on the scenario do not depend upon the cause(s)
of climate change.
Climate Change Impacts
Listed below are the key areas in which climate change is likely to have the most significant impact on
the electric power sector and thus electric reliability not only within WECC, but nationwide 5:
Continuous Events
•
Rising ambient temperatures are expected to have impacts on demand for electricity and the
operations of electric generating plants and transmission lines. Extreme heat events are
expected to become more frequent and severe. 6
•
Changing patterns of precipitation, droughts and floods may have impacts on the operating
conditions of electric generation facilities and in particular the energy production of
hydroelectric generation resulting from impacts on watersheds. Water availability for cooling
thermal power plants and other generation plant operations may come under pressure from
shortages. In such circumstances, costs for water and competition for water resources may
increase.
•
Additionally, sustained higher temperatures may also impact the effectiveness of non-hydro
generating facilities, such as dry-cooled thermal plants (both conventional and solar thermal),
•
Rising temperatures may impact patterns of consumer energy demand, including the
distribution of demand, e.g. from potential population migration within the Western
5
ICF Presentation to SPSG Workshop December 15 2014
6
“Climate Change and Extreme Heat Events,” CDC
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
10
Interconnection, and cause shifts in seasonal electric demand peaks that vary from the
historical patterns used to build electric power infrastructure. This may require new
investments to meet reliability.
Acute Events
•
Rising temperatures may contribute to more frequent, more intense and larger-scale wildfires,
as well as changes in the location of areas in the Western U.S. vulnerable to wildfire, raising
risks of damage to transmission lines and electric operations, watersheds, water collection and
transportation systems, reservoirs and treatment facilities.
•
The frequency and intensity of storms may increase leading to higher levels of damage to
electric generation and transmission assets. Generation and transmission facilities in low-lying
areas or areas prone to mudslides or flash flooding may also be impacted by flood conditions.
These storms may also impact operations of wind and solar energy plants by affecting wind
speed, patterns and duration and cloud cover and duration.
•
If the frequency and intensity of storms were to increase, lightning strikes and, as a result,
electricity outages, would also be expected to increase. WECC’s 2013 State of the
Interconnection report noted that “Over the last five years, the largest causes of Automatic
Outages were weather and environmental factors, the majority being caused by lightning. The
duration of these outages remains relatively short and they have minimal impact on the
system.” 7 Although lightning-caused outages had minimal impact on the system in 2013, that
could change in the future 8.
•
Rising sea levels and storm surges may impact the operations and very existence of power
plants and transmission facilities located in coastal areas.
•
Resources (e.g. fuel, materials, and equipment) needed for power production might be affected
if resource production is interrupted, transportation facilities and corridors are damaged or
their operations are constrained due to storm damage or other weather related conditions.
7
“State of the Interconnection 2013,” WECC, p.30
8
In its 2012 “State of the Interconnection Report” WECC reported on the causes of outages, based on data from 2008 to
2012. The Report states: “The largest contributor to these outages continues to be Weather Related...” The Report
contains the following conclusion with regard to weather related outages: “Given the large geographical territory of the
Western Interconnection, further analysis of the Weather Related outages should be conducted. Findings may provide
recommendations for reducing risk to reliability in cases of Weather Related outages. Given the important role that
weather related outages play, and the call by WECC that further analysis be conducted, the potential reliability risks
described in this report respond to an important and potentially changing source of reliability concerns.”
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
11
The above discussion is a summary of what is currently understood. More effects and a more detailed
understanding of those effects will evolve as experience with climate change occurs. However, the
potential effects clearly justify consideration of this issue within WECC’s transmission planning and
reliability assessment processes.
Energy-Water Nexus and Climate Change
Water utilities and water providers face a similarly long and daunting set of similar and often closely
related challenges related to climate change. For example:
•
Severe drought has challenged California’s important agriculture industry.
•
Lake Mead’s low water storage levels threaten hydro production.
•
Denver’s water utility has experienced unanticipated levels of sedimentation damages from
forest fires sterilizing watershed soils, resulting in both shutdowns of major treatment facilities
and on-going recovery expense.
•
Historic Colorado River allocations between upper and lower basin states have generated major
concerns about whether the allocation system can survive as drought continues in the basin.
Thus, water interests are challenged across the same range of climate impacts. As the average global
temperature increases and precipitation amounts, distribution and timing become less and less
predictable, water entities are facing many of the same risks and uncertainties that concern
WECC. Increased planning and operational collaboration between electric and water utilities may offer
opportunities for mitigating the impacts of future changes to the climate.
It is also important to recognize that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across
the Western Interconnection; neither temperature rises nor changes to precipitation and water runoff
amounts and patterns are likely to be the same in the Northwest as they would be in the Southwest,
Rocky Mountains or California. For example, the desert Southwest could experience drought
conditions while the Pacific Northwest simultaneously experienced too much water. Thus, the
challenges faced by water utilities in each of these regions, and the opportunities for collaboration
with energy utilities, are likely to differ from one another and will require localized planning and
mitigation.
WECC’s Approach to Connecting Energy, Water, Climate Change and Reliability
WECC has recognized the need to understand more fully how climate change may impact electric
system reliability in the Western Interconnection both in its October, 2014 white paper titled
“Reliability Challenges” and in developing this scenario. It also recognizes that there is no simple
answer to the question of how climate change may affect reliability. In view of the complexities
inherent to this issue, this scenario is designed to be the first of five phases for the SPSG to add to
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
12
WECC’s and its stakeholders’ understanding of the connection between climate change and electric
system reliability. Figure 2 below illustrates this approach graphically.
Figure 2: WECC Approach to Evaluating Reliability Risks Related to Climate Change
Assess System
Impacts
Create Scenario
•How might
•What could the
environmental
future look like in
changes impact the
2034?
•What environmental electric generation
and transmission
changes could
system?
accopmpany a 3° F.
average global
temperature
increase?
Create Study
Cases
Evaluate
Potential
Reliability Risks
Consider
Possible Risk
Mitigations
•Do any of the system •What actions might
•How can WECC
impacts that could
be possible to
model the scenario
result from climate
mitigate risk?
using its existing
change pose risks to
tools?
•What changes to the the reliability of the
tramsmission system transsmission
system?
might be needed in
this scenario?
1. Create Scenario. In the first phase, the SPSG will continue to develop the Energy-Water-Climate
Change Scenario as a plausible description of a future in which changes to the climate produce
a global average temperature rise of 3° F. by 2034. This temperature rise would be one
indicator of broader environmental changes that would be expected to include other
phenomena such as changes to precipitation amounts and patterns; changes to the frequency
and severity of extreme weather events; changes to the sea level; and increased frequency and
severity of wildfires. The scenario describes these phenomena qualitatively and frames at a
high level some of the impacts and potential reliability risks.
2. Assess System Impacts. In the next phase, WECC will seek to understand quantitatively how
climate changes may impact the electric system in the Western Interconnection. It will seek
answers to questions such as:
W
•
If the average global temperature increase is 3° F. by 2034, how will that affect
regional/local temperatures in the West? How much might seasonal average temperatures
change in the Southwest, Northwest, Rocky Mountains or Coastal areas?
•
How much might climate change rainfall and the amount and timing of runoff?
•
How much might higher temperatures increase demand?
•
How much might water availability for hydro production be reduced?
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
13
This phase of the analysis will likely require significant analytical work and may require several
months to complete.
3. Create Study Cases. Once WECC has a better understanding of how climate changes may
impact the electric system, it will begin developing study cases to model the scenario with
existing tools. The result of this phase will be an understanding of additional transmission and
grid modernization that might be required to accommodate system impacts of climate change.
4. Evaluate Potential Reliability Risks. This phase, which could continue in parallel with creating
study cases, will seek to determine which, if any, of the system impacts could present risks to
the reliability of the electric system. In some cases, system impacts, if not addressed, could
reduce Balancing Authorities’ (BAs’) abilities to maintain reliable electric service. In others,
system impacts may pose negligible reliability risks.
5. Consider Possible Risk Mitigation. Finally, WECC will consider possible actions that could be
implemented to mitigate reliability risks identified in the previous phase. Responsibility for
implementing mitigation strategies would likely rest with organizations other than WECC.
However, identifying potential reliability risks may lead to mitigation actions that private,
governmental, tribal or NGO organizations could develop further.
Energy-Water-Climate Change (EWCC) Scenario
Focus Question
Scenarios are most coherent and useful when they are anchored in a clear focus question. This allows
readers to understand the issues at stake and focus on factors that are most relevant. The EWCC
Scenario is centered on the following focus question:
What are the most significant system impacts in the Western Interconnection that could
result from changes to the climate and to what extent do those impacts on the electrical
grid present risks to electric system reliability?
As the SPSG generally focuses on the 20-year time frame for its work the focus question should also be
understood to cover a 20-year time period to 2034.
Scenario Narrative
In this world there is a three degree Fahrenheit rise in average global temperatures by around 2034. 9
Energy industries in the developed and developing world continue to use fossil fuels (coal, oil and
natural gas) in both the power and transportation sectors even though some national and international
policies are put in place to slow their use. Technological improvements have brought cleaner and
9
The 3° F. temperature rise is not a prediction. Rather, it is a planning target.
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
14
more efficient energy and consumer technologies into play; however they have not been sufficient to
overcome the overall expansion of human activity and resulting demand for resources.
In the United States electric power industry, several trends lead to significant restructuring away from
the historical centralized, integrated and regulated form. These trends include:
•
expansion of a more distributed and customer-centric base of electricity generation;
•
greatly expanded use of renewable energy, especially solar and wind; and more integrated and
intelligent distribution and transmission grids allowing for more efficient and customercentered services;
•
integrated distributed energy resources, enabled by SmartGrid technologies, including
Distributed Generation, demand response, energy storage, and electric vehicles operated to
ensure grid reliability and to support integration of variable renewable resources.
•
Increased development of microgrids that reduces electric service vulnerability wildfires,
flooding, storm damage and other weather-related impacts.
Innovation in information technology, materials and manufacturing as well as changing business
models in the energy industry lead to a cleaner industry, especially as regulations have greatly reduced,
but not entirely eliminated, the use of coal as a fuel. The coal generation that remains in the U.S. uses
cleaner coal technologies and in some cases carbon capture. The U.S. bulk power grid is shifting to
feature more flexibility and maintains its traditional role of maintaining grid stability and reliability
across broader operating circumstances while supporting markets that facilitate growth in power
trading.
Natural gas is the dominant fuel in electric power generation in the United States and a number of
Canadian provinces. Oil remains the dominant fuel for transportation in North America. Canada is a
major exporter of oil and both the U.S. and Canada are major exporters of coal and liquefied natural
gas (LNG) that is helping to support global economic growth especially in Asia and South America.
Policies in the U.S. to support a cleaner, more efficient and cost effective power supply are in place
including: EPA restrictions on carbon emissions (Environmental Protection Agency Rule 111d), more
regional exchanges, functioning energy imbalance markets, extended tax breaks and production
incentives for renewable energy and research and development investment to improve energy
storage, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind energy, and cost-competitive carbon capture and storage. The
most active region of North America where much of this is taking place is the Western Interconnection,
and particularly the West Coast states and British Columbia. Technologies for finding and developing
fossil fuels, such as hydraulic fracturing, are increasing the supply but costs of oil and natural gas
continue to fluctuate, driven by weather and climate related damages, regulations to increase public
health and safety, world events, and cartel activities.
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
15
Climate change events remain a concern for the public because they are increasing and growing in
intensity across many sectors. One notable effect visible to many Americans is the shift in agriculture
as hundreds of thousands of acres of land are being retired for lack of water and growing seasons for
some fruits and vegetables are impacting their availability. Food prices hit America in the pocket book
and become a political issue. Shifts in patterns of precipitation have changed the hydrological cycle of
winter snow pack accumulation and spring runoffs in the Western U.S., and periods of hydro
generation are regularly 30% below historical levels. Water scarcity is also causing owners of
thermoelectric plants to change practices and seek alternative water resources. Competition for water
once used for growing food increases and water costs more.
Wildfires have harmed forests and grasslands and, in the process, damaged transmission facilities
leading to more diligent compliance with vegetation management standards. Sedimentation due to fire
damage within specific watersheds has become a critical issue for those water utilities and their
customers. In addition to chronic sedimentation, which impacts water collection and treatment
facilities, landslides occur in some years due to loss of covering vegetation from logging or wildfires
when normal rain patterns arrive. Vegetation that replaces that lost in wildfires is often different from
and more suited to the new climate patterns than the original vegetation.
Water and electric utilities, providers, and interests are working together to develop common
understandings of the challenges they both face, and that threaten their abilities to provide the quality
and continuity of service their customers expect. Both electric and water providers have realized that
they serve the same customers and have been engaging in consumer research and outreach to help
consumers play their important conservation roles, making these large infrastructure systems more
efficient (“more bang for the bucks”) as well as exploring how these systems can better work together
for a more sustainable future.
Scientific research, economic and policy analysis is generating a wide range of data tracking and is
measuring the growing effects of climate change. Data are available in disparate fields including:
rising average temperatures; changes in water runoff in various river basins in the U.S.; rising mean sea
levels; increasing numbers of and intensity of storms, and rising global greenhouse gas emissions by
nation states. A scientific consensus emerges that with trends in place, the world could soon
experience the effects of a three degree rise in average global temperatures. Some scientists even fear
we are close to reaching tipping points where ocean currents stall or reverse and methane releases
from sea beds and tundra are creating irreversible damage to the climate. Ice sheets are continuing to
recede in the Arctic Circle and Antarctica. The Greenland Ice Sheet continues to collapse.
Companies and governments are not ignoring documented climate change as they react with
investments in energy efficiency (especially in new buildings and manufacturing plants), and more
integrated operations that take advantage of the benefits of data and cooperation (for example at the
nexus of water and energy and agriculture and food). U.S. agriculture responds with more efficient
water use technologies and shifts to planting specialized crops. These actions are visible in the
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
16
Western U.S. as consumers and business take action to assure sources of reliable power. Traditional
and larger power companies are adapting to climate change by implementing risk management and
reduction strategies. They are working to be prepared and responsive using well established storm
and disaster practices and taking advantage of more information intensive, flexible and resilient
systems. Where economically feasible and rational they are hardening some energy assets.
In this world, engineering analyses driving investment decisions to provide reliable electric power are
taking into account more challenging climate conditions consisting of warmer temperatures, more
frequent and intense storms, growing levels of sea level rise and periods of both drought and floods.
Wildfires have become more frequent and more severe and are posing increased threats to electricity
assets, watersheds and water facilities. Over the past two decades the electric power system has
evolved, driven not only by anticipation of climate change but also based on technological innovation
at multiple points (more distributed and customer owned generation is a significant part of the
system), regulatory change, industry restructuring, and global shifts in fuel markets. Water users,
likewise, have more technology coming forward that can help them to continue trends toward more
efficient water end use. Given that there is a larger governmental role associated with water (federal
hydro dams, irrigation schemes, food policy, fisheries impacts, etc.) water providers have not yet
implemented as extensive efficiency measures as have electric utilities, but are beginning to do so
more effectively.
Scenario Drivers
The primary characteristic of the future state described in this scenario is an increase in the average
global temperature of 3° F. in 2034 compared to its average value from 1960 to 1979. This increase in
average global temperature would likely be accompanied by other changes to the environment, such
as changes to precipitation and extreme weather events. In order to more fully understand the future
state described in this scenario, it is necessary to consider other drivers and how they might change in
the next 20 years. A more comprehensive understanding of the drivers that will affect the
environmental, social and economic state of the Western Interconnection will identify strategic choices
that could affect the reliability of the electric system.
The state of other drivers of this scenario are shown below:
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
17
Table 1: Key Scenario Drivers
W
Key Scenario Driver
State of the Driver in 2034
Climate Change
Increasing climate change impacts produce the increased average
global temperature; it is warmer and dryer in the Southwest (SW)
portion of the Western Interconnection and wetter in the
Northwest (NW); there are extended periods of drought; the
growing intensity of storms and rising sea levels cause increased
damage to energy and water infrastructure
National Policy Change
(U.S. and Canada)
Federal policy makers implement consistent policy change to
reduce GHG emissions’ growth rate, but they do not cause sharp
reductions; there are significant reductions in coal generation;
policy makers at all levels encourage regional energy development;
the U.S. Congress approves continued tax benefits to encourage
renewable energy
State/Provincial Level
Policy Change
States and Provinces, along with corporations, institutions like
universities and hospitals, and local governments lead in setting
aggressive Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and reducing fossil
fuel use in transportation; some states offer resistance to 111(d)
regional cooperation, however, the law survives legal challenges;
states remain dependent on Federal support for recovery from
severe storm damage
Technological Changes in
Power Generation
Fast responding natural gas-powered generation expands;
distributed generation penetration increases, small-scale customer
owned power expands, large-scale and distributed solar and wind
energy continue to increase; coal-fired generation decreases due
to increased regulation; hydro power is more varied and less
timely as precipitation becomes more uncertain; hydro output
stays about the same overall although there are regional
differences that have implications for north-south transmission;
energy storage grows, but implementation is not yet gamechanging; pilot plants are developed for carbon capture and
storage, but their use does not significantly reduce GHG
concentrations; remaining coal generation is used to provide grid
reliability
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
W
18
Key Scenario Driver
State of the Driver in 2034
Technological Changes in
Electric Transmission
Utilities and grid operators increase application of smart grid
technologies; grid operations and regional markets change to
integrate large amounts of added wind and solar generation, small
hydro enjoys a renaissance; transmission and distribution
networks are increasingly integrated to increase reliability and
efficiency and to take advantage of distributed generation; newer
technologies, such as optimized portfolios of distributed energy
resources, are deployed to meet local capacity, voltage, frequency,
and other ancillary service needs in addition to energy; microgrids
are developed to ensure reliability for critical services such as
hospitals, public safety, and high-tech industrial/commercial
business parks.
Economic Growth
Demographic shifts, such as a population shift from the Desert
Southwest to the Northwest, influence state level economic
growth in the U.S.; global growth is concentrated in Asia and South
America as expanding economic growth leads to higher energy
demand from growth in fossil generation
Global Fuel Market
Changes
Hydraulic fracturing expands globally leading to expanded
availability of fossil fuels at higher prices; when cyclically lowpriced, fossil fuels are in use in the power and transportation
sectors, though at declining percentages of the total; GHG
emissions may continue to expand, but at rates lower than
economic growth due to more efficient technologies and increased
penetration of renewable energy technologies.
U. S. Electric Industry
Restructuring
Some traditional power companies divest fossil and nuclear
resources into separate companies, with new focus on renewable
energy and consumer services companies offering new services
and products; new companies bring new technologies in the areas
of storage, energy efficiency products and distributed generation
ownership and management into the marketplace
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
19
Key Scenario Driver
State of the Driver in 2034
International
Developments
The U.S, Canada, China and the European Union come to
agreements to reduce GHG emissions;; governments continue to
measure and reporting emission levels; Major international
corporations; institutional actors like universities and hospitals;
state, provincial, and local governments; and the U.S. military’s
worldwide operations provide outstanding examples of progress
toward more sustainable energy systems.
The Water/Energy Nexus
In exploring issues related to the impacts of climate change on the reliability of the Bulk Electric System
in the Western Interconnection, it is clear that water availability and electric reliability are closely
linked.
A thorough explanation of the water/energy nexus is provided in the June, 2014 report from the
Department of Energy entitled, “The Water-Energy Nexus, Challenges and Opportunities10.” The
introduction to that report contains the following overview:
Present day water and energy systems are tightly intertwined. Water is used in all
phases of energy production and electricity generation. Energy is required to extract,
convey, and deliver water of appropriate quality for diverse human uses, and then again
to treat wastewaters prior to their return to the environment. Historically, interactions
between energy and water have been considered on a regional or technology-bytechnology basis. At the national and international levels, energy and water systems
have been developed, managed, and regulated independently.
Recent developments have focused national attention on the connections between water
and energy infrastructure. For example, when severe drought affected more than a third
of the United States in 2012, limited water availability constrained the operation of some
power plants and other energy production activities. Hurricane Sandy demonstrated that
vital water infrastructure can be impaired when it loses power. The recent boom in
domestic unconventional oil and gas development brought on by hydraulic fracturing
and horizontal drilling has added complexity to the national dialogue about the
relationship between energy and water resources.
Several current trends are further increasing the urgency to address the water-energy
nexus in an integrated and proactive way. First, climate change has already begun to
10
The Water Energy Nexus: Challenges and Opportunities, Full report, DOE Publication, June 2014
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
20
affect precipitation and temperature patterns across the United States. Second, U.S.
population growth and regional migration trends indicate that the population in arid
areas such as the Southwest is likely to continue to increase, further complicating the
management of both energy and water systems. Third, introduction of new technologies
in the energy and the water domains could shift water and energy demands. Finally,
developments in policies addressing water rights and water impacts of energy
production are introducing additional incentives and challenges for decision making.
Based on the SPSG’s work during 2014 to understand the impacts of climate change on electric system
reliability, it concluded the following:
•
Utility company executives, power industry regulators and water resources entities in the
Western Interconnection are thinking about water availability for power and are taking a wide
range of measures to manage risk that might impact reliability. Power companies have
managed water supply issues historically and remain active and well informed about their
particular circumstances.
•
The foremost concerns about variations in precipitation in the Western Interconnection are
focused on the impacts on hydro power generation (amounts and seasonality). Reduced hydro
power generation, shifts in its seasonality or significant variations in its availability in different
regions within the Western Interconnection directly impact the need for additional power
generation and transmission assets to assure reliability. Given sufficient resources, the risks to
reliability appear to be largely manageable; however extreme events could present challenges.
•
Climate scientists, water experts and representatives of a variety of water interests joined SPSG
stakeholders to gain better understandings of where these two important sectors have
common interests and to consider how climate variability challenges both sectors with common
risks that might call for coordinated and cooperative management across both sectors’ future
planning, investment, and operations. Both sectors share public interest responsibilities to
provide continuous and reliable service at reasonable costs, and both sectors serve the same
customers. Customers of electric and water utilities are the same people—it would appear
prudent for their utility providers to address their common challenges related to climate
impacts. Future work in assessing the impacts of climate changes on the grid will also seek to
identify common energy/water utility challenges.
Possible Scenario Early Indicators
Early indicators are events and trends that indicate whether a scenario may be coming to reality. Early
Indicators can help to interpret events in real time and guide strategic assessments. As events unfold
and are interpreted in light of the scenarios, ideas for future study cases and other analysis options can
also emerge. Early indicators that the future described in this Scenario might be developing, including
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
21
environmental conditions that would accompany a 3° F. average global temperature increase and
impacts of those environmental changes on the electric transmission system, include the following:
Table 2: Possible Scenario Early Indicators
Categories
Possible Indicators
Climate Change
•
Extreme weather events at higher frequencies
•
Higher global average temperatures
•
Rising sea levels
•
More frequent and longer droughts in the
Southwestern U.S.
•
Changes in precipitation amounts and temporal
patterns (i.e., more precipitation in the north and less
in the south)
•
Low impact of current GHG regulations in meeting
emission reduction goals
•
Economic policies that directly lead to increased energy
or fossil fuel consumption
•
Policies that sustain some coal generation
Technological Innovation
•
Possible early indicators to be developed
Fossil Fuel Use
•
Possible early indicators to be developed
Economic Growth
•
Global growth in consumption patterns driving
increased energy demand
Demographic Changes
•
Population migration within the Western
Interconnection, e.g., from the desert Southwest to
other regions
Impacts in Regions of the
Western Interconnection
(Northwest, Southwest,
Rocky Mountains, Coast)
•
Reduced overall hydro generation and shifting timing of
peak output due to climate patterns
•
Declining snow pack levels
•
Increasing storms and wildfires that threaten
transmission lines and system operations
•
Sea level rise that threatens coastal power facilities
•
Increased frequency of heat-related transmission
U. S., Canadian and Mexican
National Policy Change
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
Categories
22
Possible Indicators
problems
Global and International
Developments
Changes to Reliability
Standards
•
Increased water temperatures affect cooling efficiency
of non-binary thermal power plants
•
Failure to achieve global agreements that substantially
and timely reduce GHG emissions
•
Growing technological efficiency that may not be able
to offset growth in energy demand driven by more
people consuming at higher levels
•
NERC modifies reliability standards in response to
increased frequency and extent of storms, lightning
and/or wildfires.
Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Electricity Grid
One of the most important concerns related to determining whether climate change could pose risks
to the reliability of the electric transmission system in the Western Interconnection is identifying the
specific ways in which climate changes could impact the transmission system. During the December
15, 2014 workshop, SPSG members identified potential system impacts and reliability concerns. The
results of their work are discussed later in this report (see p. 27).
Building on the SPSG’s initial work, additional study will be required to more fully understand how
climate change might affect the electric system directly. A study completed in Canada 11 identified the
following potential system impacts from climate change:
Table 3: Potential Climate Change Impacts on the Electric Sector
Climate Indicator
Electricity Sector Impact
Increased average
temperature
11
•
Accelerated deterioration of equipment
•
Increased operation and maintenance needs
•
Increased line losses in electricity flow
•
Reduced flow through cooling efficiency in thermal
stations
“Adaptive Capacity in the Canadian Electricity Sector: Report to the Council of Energy Ministers Adaptation Working
Group,” Paul Cobb, March, 2010
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
Climate Indicator
Electricity Sector Impact
Changes in precipitation
patterns
More frequent extreme
weather events (heat, wind,
rain, ice, drought, flood)
Forest fire hazards
W
E S T E R N
23
E
•
Decreased efficiency of dry-cooled thermal generation
facilities
•
Reductions in the efficiency of solar photovoltaic
facilities
•
Higher water temperatures (thus limiting generation
capacity of thermal stations)
•
Increased energy demand (summer – e.g., to power air
conditioning; pump, treat, and deliver more water;
higher irrigation demand for food production due to
drying soil moisture)
•
Decreased energy demand (winter)
•
Longer construction season
•
Increased rate of decay or corrosion processes
•
Dam safety compromised
•
Lower water levels
•
Unanticipated storm tracks
•
Changes in running water discharge to drive turbines
•
Changes in timing, rate, location and nature of
precipitations
•
Changes in slope stability
•
Infrastructure failure (e.g., collapsing lines under ice
loads)
•
“Galloping” lines leading to transmission failure
•
Increased maintenance requirements
•
Increased peak demand
•
Higher infrastructure risk
•
Potential impact on reservoirs and flows
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
Climate Indicator
24
Electricity Sector Impact
Changes in number of
freeze/thaw cycles
•
Damage to concrete (moisture expansion/contraction)
•
Increased need for infrastructure maintenance
Vegetation and ecosystem
shifts
•
Changes in line and right-of-way maintenance
schedules and tree clearing
The next step will be to quantify these impacts to the extent possible. Answers to the following
questions (among others) will be important considerations:
•
How much will a 3° F. average global temperature rise affect sea levels along the Pacific coast in
2034?
•
Will this sea level rise have significant adverse impacts on the operation of generating units,
substations or transmission lines, located near the coast?
•
How much will a 3° F. average global temperature rise affect ocean water temperatures along
the Pacific coast?
•
Will these ocean water temperatures degrade power plant cooling efficiencies, thus requiring
derates of generating plant output capability during certain times of the year? How significant
would that effect be in view of the phase-out of Once-Through Cooling technologies?
•
How does a 3° F. average global temperature rise translate into a corresponding annual
temperature profile for each of the regions within the WECC interconnection (Northwest,
Southwest, Rocky Mountain, Coastal)? How will this annual temperature profile affect
generator output and transmission delivery capabilities during specific time periods across the
year?
•
How might regional temperature changes and heat waves affect:
o End-use electricity consumption (e.g., lower electric loads in the winter, higher summer
peak loads)?
o Generation capacity (peak and shoulder periods)?
o Labor availability for system maintenance and repairs (could higher temperatures
reduce safe working times)?
W
•
How might the annual temperature profile for the Western interconnection impact thermal
ratings of substations and transmission facilities?
•
How much will a 3° F. average global temperature rise affect precipitation timing, location and
amounts across the WECC interconnection?
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
•
25
How would changes in precipitation timing, location and amounts affect:
o Hydroelectric output, both maximum capacity and monthly energy content?
o Electric pumping loads for water, both existing pumps and potential new water pumping
needed to meet minimum end-use water requirements across the WECC
interconnection?
o The capability and efficiency of power plants that use fresh water for cooling?
•
How might climate changes affect the frequency of outages or reduce BAs’ abilities to respond
to outages?
•
Would climate changes induce changes to the resource mix or transmission topology?
•
Would climate changes, specifically sustained increased temperatures, require changes to
electric industry engineering standards? If temperature shifts, which standards might need to
be revised? Which reliability standards might be affected?
These questions identify the need for significant additional research to understand more specifically
how climate change could impact the transmission grid and generation in the Western
Interconnection. The answers to these questions will be crucial in defining one or more study cases to
evaluate potential transmission expansion needs and other considerations.
Correlating System Impacts to Potential Reliability Risks
The goal of developing this scenario is to identify possible risks to electric reliability that could result
from a 3° F. average global temperature rise. It is important to note that changes to the climate may
impact the Bulk Electric System in many different ways. Some of these changes occur independently
while others could be compounding and synergistic. For example, potential reductions in hydroelectric
generation be coupled in demographic shifts to load centers and heat-driven increases in demand
could create significant challenges to the grid.
But, not all system impacts translate into electric reliability risks. Some potential system impacts offer
significant time to develop mitigation plans. For example, reduced availability of hydroelectric
generation due to extended severe drought could pose risks to meeting customers’ demands. If,
however, water and electricity operators work together in advance to prepare for those impacts, they
could mitigate potential reliability risks. Although long-term temperature and precipitation changes
have tended to occur gradually and to offer time for suppliers to develop alternate generating sources,
some studies indicate that future climate shifts could be sudden and dramatic. Reliability risks
associated with an increase in severe weather events due to climate changes are less predictable and
occur more suddenly, offering less preparation time. That being said, the electric transmission and
distribution system has always been designed for redundancy, giving it the ability to ride through major
weather or fire related outages (or recover from them relatively quickly) in most cases. That is the
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
26
essence of “N-1” and “N-2” contingency planning that is the foundation of NERC and WECC reliability
standards.
Assessing Risk to Electric Service Reliability
Transmission planning stakeholders in the Western Interconnection should consider responses that
might be in order to sustain electric reliability in the Western Interconnection in response to system
impacts that could result from global temperatures increasing by around 3° F. by 2034. The focus here
is on system impacts and how they could pose reliability risks.
This risk assessment, which will be developed more fully in a later stage of this analysis, focuses on the
intensity, frequency and abnormal occurrence of climate-driven events that are very different from
historical meteorological patterns, how they impact the system and how those impacts could affect
reliability. The assessment will not address:
•
Short-term disaster management and prioritization of recovery resources that are within the
purview of other organizations; or
•
Normal weather-related and operating events that have and will continue to occur.
While the scenario and risk assessment recognize the linkage between electric reliability and water
availability, they do not explore in depth whether and how electric sector interests could or should be
coordinating and cooperating with water sector interests in addressing their common climate related
risks and challenges. In the future, WECC may explore a potential role for improving coordination
between the electric power and water sectors.
Potential Electric Reliability Risks
As stated earlier not all climate-related electric system impacts translate into system reliability risks.
Climate change-related system impacts are characterized by:
•
Impacts on transmission and generation infrastructure;
•
the severity and predictability of the events;
•
their relationships to rising average global temperatures;
•
shifts in the location of weather events compared to historical norms;
•
dramatic shifts in demand; and
•
changes in the extremity and duration of weather events and normal seasonal patterns such as
longer periods of warmer, cooler, wetter or dryer conditions.
Managing climate change risks to sustain electric system reliability is an emerging practice.
Information gathered to date by the SPSG suggests that factors related to severity, exposure, and the
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
27
probabilities of events are being used to understand impacts to the Bulk Electric System and determine
potential reliability risks.
WECC engaged ICF International to complete an initial assessment that would inform the SPSG of:
1) types of climate change risks and impacts occurring at the nexus of energy‐water‐land of which
electric utilities need to be aware and for which they need to plan; and
2) the types of risk management options that can be used to mitigate or reduce the identified risks
and impacts.
ICF’s report is available on the WECC web site. In addition, during the SPSG workshop on December
15th, ICF consultants presented an overview of potentially useful actions on preparing for climate
events across parts of the energy sector. That material is available for review 12 and the specific actions
suggested by ICF are included as Appendix 3 to this report.
At its December 15th workshop, SPSG members identified potential climate change-related electric
system impacts that planners may want to explore further. The SPSG organized potential system
impacts according to their perceived likelihood of occurrence and potential impact on reliability.
Figure 3 shows the organizing matrix used to prioritize potential system impacts.
Figure 3: Climate Risk Analysis Matrix1
12
ICF Presentation to SPSG Workshop December 15 2014
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
28
This matrix identifies four categories of potential electric reliability risks: high probability/high
reliability impact; low probability/high reliability impact; low probability/high reliability impact; and
low probability/low reliability impact. While SPSG members’ estimates of probability and reliability
impact are just that—estimates—the group is quite diverse and represents a variety of perspectives.
The SPSG recommends that planners and other stakeholders in the Western Interconnection consider
the identified potential risks carefully as they evaluate possible mitigation strategies. Additionally, this
approach suggests that planners focus their attention first on events that have both the highest
probability of occurring and the highest potential impact on reliability. However, high impact/low
probability risks, as well as those in other quadrants of the risk-probability matrix also merit serious
consideration.
Appendices 4 and 5 show the potential climate change-related electric reliability risks identified by the
SPSG, categorized according to their estimated probability of occurrence and impacts on grid reliability.
These are offered to initiate discussion and to provide a starting point for a methodical evaluation
needed to further debate and describe potential impacts.
The lists of potential climate change impacts on transmission and generation assets in Appendices 4
and 5 were designed to be broad and inclusive. Not all of those impacts may occur in a given year or in
a particular area in the Western Interconnection given its topographical diversity. WECC and system
operators in the Western Interconnection will continue to manage and mitigate those risks to
operations as far as possible in advance of their occurrence 13.
Reliability Risk Mitigation
The Bulk Electric System in the Western Interconnection is composed of a complex and multifaceted
set of assets and services from generation to transmission to distribution to final energy services.
Therefore, there are a wide range of actions that might be appropriate in particular areas of the power
system depending on the nature of a climate event.
Extreme weather events will have different impacts on different parts of the system than will excessive
heat. Owners of transmission and generation assets and managers of their operations will draw on
experience and expertise in managing the levels of preparedness they deem appropriate. Since a
combination of state, federal and private financial resources may be needed to respond to a particular
climate event, approaches to preparedness will vary.
Providing recommendations on specific preparedness actions is beyond the scope of this scenario and
the role of WECC. However, transmission and generation asset owners, planners, policy makers and
other stakeholders may wish to consider further the following general categories of risks:
13
WECC Integrated Reliability Assessment Model, June 2014
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
W
29
•
Identifying climate change-related electric system impacts that could evolve into reliability
risks. While this report makes an initial attempt to identify such system impacts, the SPSG
recommends that transmission and generation asset owners and planners explore these system
impacts in greater detail to determine which impacts have the potential to evolve into
reliability risks.
•
Prioritizing potential reliability risks. While events that have both the highest probability of
occurring and the highest potential impact on reliability should have the highest priority, high
impact/low probability risks, as well as those in other quadrants of the risk-probability matrix
also merit serious consideration. Similar sets of risks could be identified from a water
perspective. With water risks identified, the common risks that both water and electric sectors
face could be put in priority for coordinated planning common to the two sectors.
•
Preemptively and selectively hardening transmission and generation assets. Based on the
previous evaluation, asset owners and operators will be in the best position to identify
opportunities to protect their assets against climate change-related impacts. Given the
important role that weather related outages play, the potential reliability risks described in this
report would merit further study and evaluation.
•
Improving the effectiveness and efficiency of responses to system impact events. There may be
actions other than physical hardening of assets that would mitigate the impacts of changes to
the climate.
•
Increasing collaboration between electric and water utility managers. In many states, water
systems are among the largest electricity users and electric utilities are among the largest water
users. Information presented to the SPSG in 2014 suggests that electric and water utility
managers and operators have not identified all of the potential opportunities for or benefits of
coordinated operations.
•
Improve overall coordination between electric industry representatives; water system
managers; federal, state and local governments; tribes and First Nations; and nongovernmental organizations. Collaboration among the organizations most impacted by climate
change may identify increased operating efficiencies, asset hardening strategies, policy
initiatives and communication strategies that could mitigate climate change-related risks.
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
30
Appendix 1: References & Sources:
1.
December 15, 2015 SPSG Meeting web page
2.
United States Environmental Protection Agency Climate Change web site
3.
“Reliability Challenges White Paper,” Western Electricity Coordinating Council
4.
ICF Risk Assessment Presentation, December 15, 2014
5.
ICF Risk Mitigation Presentation, December 15, 2014
6.
Water-Energy Nexus Full Report, DOE
7.
U.S. National Climate Assessment, 2014
8.
“Representative Concentration Pathways,” Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
9.
WECC Integrated Reliability Assurance Model (IRAM)
10.
Event-Pattern-Structure (EPS) web page
11.
Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap, U.S. Department of Defense
12.
“Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change,” National Academies of Science
13.
“Annual Energy Outlook, 2014,” U.S. Energy Information Agency
14.
“Charting New Waters,” The Johnson Foundation
15.
“Climate Change Could Leave Cities More In the Dark,” PhysOrg
16.
“World Energy Outlook 2013,” International Energy Agency
17.
“Assessment of Climate Change Risks to Electricity Reliability in the WECC Region,” Molly Hellmuth,
Peter Schultz, Judsen Bruzgul, Dana Spindler, and Heidi Pacini, ICF International, December 2014
18.
IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report, 2014, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
19.
“Power Failure: How Climate Change Puts Our Electricity At Risk - And What We Can Do About It,”
Union of Concerned Scientists
20.
The Economic Risks of Climate change to the United States, Risky Business.org, June 2013
21.
The Economics of Grid Defection, The Rocky Mountain Institute
22.
“U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather,” U.S. Department of
Energy
23.
WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, World Meteorological Organization, September 2014
24.
“Adaptive Capacity in the Canadian Electricity Sector: Report to the Council of Energy Ministers Adaptation
Working Group,” Paul Cobb, March, 2010
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
31
Appendix 2: Relevant Event-Pattern-Structure (EPS) Reports
1.
What It Would Really Take to Reverse Climate Change
2.
US DoD Releases Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap
3.
Australian Emissions Rise After Carbon Tax Repeal
4.
Coal Rush in India Could Tip Balance on Climate Change
5.
More Large Companies Incorporating Internal Carbon Price
6.
Climate Change Skeptic Offers Alternate View
7.
Global Warming Has Become Normal Climate for Most People
8.
NOAA Report: Nature, not climate change, blamed for California drought
9.
California drought of 2012-2014 Worst in last 1200 Years
10.
It Ain't Easy Getting Breakthrough Technology into the Marketplace
11.
Weather Primary Cause of U.S. Rise in Carbon Emissions in 2013
12.
Drought: Nine Economic Facts about Water in the United States
13.
World’s First Post-Combustion CCS Coal Unit Online in Canada
14.
Construction Begins at a Carbon-Capture Plant, but Will It Ever Be Completed?
15.
Microgrids Developing to Weather Extreme Storms
16.
What is water worth?
17.
U.N. Climate Report Warns of Increased Risk to Crops
18.
Global warming: Improve economic models of climate change
19.
Climate Change Impacts on Irrigation Water Availability
20.
Averting Disastrous Climate Change Could Depend on Unproven Technologies
21.
Running Out of Time: Years-not decades-left to start reducing greenhouse gas emissions
22.
Sacrificing Africa for Climate Change
23.
China approves massive new coal capacity despite pollution fears
24.
Lag in Confronting Climate Will be Costly
25.
Gradual Climate Changes Could Cause Sudden Impacts
26.
Per EIA-Oil surges, IEA Coal Use Keeps Growing
27.
Warming report sees violent, sicker, poorer future
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
32
28.
Pacific ocean now warming 15 times faster than in past 10,000 years
29.
Harsh carbon fee needed to avert disaster, warns top climate scientist
30.
New IPCC Report Strengthens Certainty of Climate Change
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
33
Appendix 3: Managing Risks to Transmission and Distribution 14
Potential Risk Area
Possible Action
Transmission Line
Capacity
•
build additional transmission capacity to cope with increased loads and
to increase resilience to direct physical impacts
•
reduce line capacity requirements by producing a larger fraction of
power at or near the destination
•
place transmission lines underground (also helps with fire and storm
damage threats)
•
proactively install new types of cooling and heat‐tolerant
materials/technology
•
install cooling systems for transformers
•
elevate substation control rooms to reduce potential flooding hazards
•
increase fire corridors around transmission lines
•
use transmission line materials that can withstand high temperatures
•
create “green” buffers around exposed infrastructure
•
construct levees or berms to protect exposed infrastructure
•
elevate or relocate substations
•
consider extreme event threats in new siting
•
relocate towers/poles
•
reinforce towers/poles against flooding
High Wind Threats
•
reinforce or replace towers/poles with stronger materials or additional
supports to make them less susceptible to wind and flood damage
Prediction and
Monitoring
•
invest in improvements to short‐ and medium‐term weather, climate,
and hydrologic forecasting to improve lead times for event preparation
and response
•
routinely monitor bell weather indicators related to climate, water, and
Substation/Transformer
Capacity
Fire Threats
Erosion and Flooding
Threats
14
“Assessment of Climate Change Risks to Electricity Reliability in the WECC Region,” Molly Hellmuth, Peter Schultz, Judsen
Bruzgul, Dana Spindler, and Heidi Pacini, ICF International, December 2014
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
Potential Risk Area
34
Possible Action
T&D efficiency/costs
Planning and Design
W
E S T E R N
E
•
revise design thresholds using climate change projections
•
incorporate climate change projections into planning processes
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
35
Appendix 4: Potential Reliability Risks for Transmission Assets
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L
Energy-Water-Climate Change Scenario
36
Appendix 5: Potential Reliability Risks for Generation Assets
W
E S T E R N
E
L E C T R I C I T Y
C
O O R D I N A T I N G
C
O U N C I L