* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download COP21 climate pledges add up to 2.7°C warming – UN
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Fossil fuel phase-out wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Kyoto Protocol wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Climate Change conference wikipedia , lookup
Carbon governance in England wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in New Zealand wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Views on the Kyoto Protocol wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Low-carbon economy wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Business action on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
InternationalNews COP21 climate pledges add up to 2.7°C warming – UN Pledges submitted before Paris mark a significant departure from business as usual warming, but focus is now on ratcheting up ambition T he United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has completed its analysis of country pledges on climate mitigation, or Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), in advance of the COP21 Paris climate conference, and found that, combined, they could result in a world average 2.7°C of warming on pre-industrial levels. Such a level of warming is above the accepted 2°C target, but is a marked improvement from the 4–6°C possible outcome if emissions rose unchecked. The synthesis report from the UNFCCC secretariat analyses all the INDCs that were submitted by 1 October this year. The secretariat was positive about the report’s findings, highlighting the potential impact of cumulative action. However, it and others also stressed the need for ambitions to be ratcheted up after Paris to put the world onto a 2°C pathway. According to the report the aggregate impact of INDCs would result in a fall in per capita emissions over the next 15 years – by 8% in 2025 and 9% in 2030. ‘Fully implemented, these plans together begin to make a significant dent in the growth of greenhouse gas emissions: as a floor they provide a foundation upon which ever-higher ambition can be built,’ said Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC. ‘I am confident that these INDCs are not the final word in what countries are ready to do and achieve over time – the journey to a climate safe-future is underway and the Paris agreement to be inked in Paris can confirm, and catalyse that transition.’ The report assesses INDCs covering 146 countries – all developed nations and threequarters of the developing countries that fall under the UNFCCC treaty. Around 86% of global greenhouse gas emissions are covered by the INDCs in the report. ‘The INDCs have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7°C by 2100, by no means enough but a lot lower than the estimated four, five, or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the INDCs,’ said Figueres. The UNFCCC report isn’t the only analysis of INDC pledges. In a World Energy Outlook special briefing the International Energy Agency (IEA) found that if all countries meet the goals outlined in a slightly larger group of submitted pledges, growth in energy-related emissions (which account for two-thirds of total greenhouse gas emissions) would slow to a ‘relative crawl’ by 2030. ‘The fact that over 150 countries – representing 90% of global economic activity and nearly 90% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions – have submitted pledges to reduce emissions is, in itself, remarkable,’ said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. The IEA report finds that with INDC measures global energy intensity – a measure of energy use per unit of economic output – would improve to 2030 at a three times faster rate than that seen since 2000. It also finds that in the power sector 70% of additional electricity generation to 2030 would be low carbon. The full implementation of the pledges will require the energy sector to invest $13.5tn in energy efficiency and low carbon technologies from 2015 to 2030, an annual average of $840bn, says the IEA. Depending on the methods and model used, 2.7°C wasn’t the only estimate given for the cumulative effects of INDCs – Climate Interactive put the aggregate outcome at 3.5°C. There are error bars around both of these estimates. A United Nations Environment Programme Emissions Gap report puts the INDC outcome at between 3 and 3.5°C and quantifies the gap in emissions needed to reach a cost-effective 2°C pathway – around 12–14 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030. Some were positive about the INDC news, highlighting the fact The UNFCCC and others stressed the need for ambitions to be ratcheted up after Paris to put the world onto a 2°C pathway that, despite 2°C not being achieved, the INDCs mark a good start. Others were more critical. ‘It should come as no surprise that the aggregated effect of the INDCs falls short of the global target of limiting global warming to two degrees,’ said Hæge Fjellheim, a Senior Analyst in the Point Carbon team at Thomson Reuters. ‘The report clearly illustrates the weakness of the bottom-up approach, where all countries bring forward their contributions in a global climate potluck. There is currently no link between the global target and the mitigation efforts undertaken by individual countries.’ It is hoped that, under any agreement, INDCs will be revisited and revised at five-year periods, and France and China recently made a political agreement that this should be the case. For more on climate change and COP21 see page 20. Gas replaces coal in US power plant Siemens is to supply the power island for Panda Power Funds’ 1.1 GW Hummel Station gas-fired combined cycle power plant in Pennsylvania, US. The facility, due to become operational in early 2018, will supply power for Philadelphia and New York City. The new plant, to be fueled with shale gas from the Marcellus field and located near Shamokin Dam in Snyder County, Pennsylvania, will occupy the site of the recently retired Sunbury coal-fired power plant (pictured). Siemens will deliver the power island consisting of three gas turbines, one steam turbine, three air-cooled generators, one hydrogen-cooled generator and the control system. Photo: Panda Power Funds Energy World | December 2015 3