Download Dealing with the impact of global warming and rising sea levels

Forum: Environment
Issue: Dealing with the impact of global warming and rising sea levels
Student Officer: Teresa Tessari
Introduction
Global Warming is, to all intents and purposes, a world problem that affects the
environment, as much as humans and animals.
Global Warming is overall a natural effect that has rapidly sped up during the past
century, due to a large increase in human activity. This fast change is believed to
permanently affect the Earths climate.
Over the past century the Earth’s average temperature has risen between 0.4 and
0.8 °C mainly because of human activity.
The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has carried out a research
that predicts an increase between 1.4 and 5.8 °C in the Earth’s temperature over
the next 100 years.
Some of the most dangerous and visible Global Warming effects are the sea level
change and an increase in the violence of storms and other weather events around
the globe.
Key Terms
Greenhouse effect
The rise in the Earth’s temperature caused by certain gases (such as Carbon
Dioxide) that by staying in the atmosphere trap some of the energy that is meant
to go back to the universe; just like the glass in a greenhouse;
Sea Level Change
Increase or decrease in sea level due to ice sheets and glaciers melting (caused by
Global Warming); its main effects are regional phenomena (El Niño, La Niña) and
ocean acidification;
Kyoto Protocol
treaty negotiated in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan by 192 parties, with the aim
of helping member states to reduce emissions;
Paris Agreement
agreement concluded in December 2015, first to be concluded between 195
parties and applicable to all, which provides limitation of the temperature rise;
Overview of the issue
How does Global Warming affect the world?
The Earth’s climate has changed throughout history, in the past 650,000 years
there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat; the beginning of
modern climate era is marked by the last ice age (about 7,000 years ago), since
then human civilization has begun and the current Global Warming problem is
particularly alarming because most of it is caused by human activity and there has
not been a similar one over the past 1,300 years.
The main Global Warming causes are human-induced, in fact the more
industrialized our world becomes the more fossil fuels we burn. The process of
burning fossil fuels causes the release of greenhouse gases (such as Carbon
Dioxide) which create the famous Greenhouse Effect.
The warming of the climate has many alarming effects that are likely to create a
vicious circle since each problem will worsen others which will feed back into
each other:
 Increase in greenhouse emissions;
 Aggravation of Ozone loss;
 Permafrost melting;
 Oceanic changes such as Ocean Acidification;
 Massive extinction of species which leads to environmental crisis;
 Collapse of biological and ecological system;
 Extreme weather patterns such as hurricanes, drought, floods, longer spells
of dry heat or intense rain (also known as Super Storms);
It is certain that Global Warming will affect the entire globe but some areas are
more likely to suffer from more intense effects:
 Northern Europe could be affected with colder weather as the Gulf Stream
(which keeps countries such as the United Kingdom, Ireland and Northern
European countries) could be cut off;
 In South Asia the Himalayan glaciers could retreat and cause water scarcity;
 Developing countries are probably going to be more affected due to
different reasons such as: lacking of resources to solve the issue or limit the
damage, poverty, geographical reasons (small islands are already seeing the
effects of sea levels rising)
Between 1991 and 2010 the most affected countries were:
1. Bangladesh
2. Myanmar
3. Honduras
4. Nicaragua
5. Haiti
6. Vietnam
7. Dominican Republic
8. Pakistan
9. Korea, DPR
10. Philippines
But those are not the only areas that also experienced incidents of very damaging
and extreme weather conditions as the map shows:
An example of the damages that Global Warming leads to is the Hiayan typhoon
which occurred in the Philippines on the 8th of November 2010 with 10,000
feared dead and 9 million affected.
How does the Greenhouse Effect work?
The Greenhouse Effect is a natural phenomenon increased by human action.
The sun sends energy (ultra violet radiation) to the Earth, which changes in
weather and climate and heats the global surface, in return the earth radiates
energy back into space. This process is altered by some atmospheric gases which
trap some of the energy meant to leave the earth, just like the panels of a
greenhouse, thanks to this process some of the heat is held back in the earth’s
atmosphere and the global temperature rises.
Greenhouse gases:
 Carbon dioxide (CO2)
 Methane (CH4)
 Nitrous oxide (N20)
 Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
 Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
 Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
 Water vapour
However it is not only the natural Carbon fluxes that make up the Greenhouse
Effect, this phenomenon is in fact worsen by human activities such as fuel burning
and deforestation.
When burning fossil fuels extracted from the Earth’s crust we move carbon far
more rapidly than it would naturally, this causes carbon dioxide concentration in
the atmosphere to increase.
Natural Greenhouse Effect has occurred since the creation of the Earth’s
atmosphere and its gases but only with the advent of global industrialization (late
1800s) it has been affected by human activity; in 1900 the CO2 level has risen by
40% due to the beginning of larger transports employment; today the
concentration of carbon dioxide is the highest it has ever been at least in the past
half-million years.
Since 1950:
 The United States of America has emitted roughly 50.7 billion tons of
carbon
 China (4.6 times more populous than the US) has emitted 15.7 billion tons
 India (3.5 times more populous than the US) has emitted 4.2 billion tons
These numbers will rise.
Nowadays, as well as in the past not all countries have affected the Greenhouse
Effect the same way:
 Industrialized countries account for around 80% of the carbon dioxide
accumulation in the atmosphere to this day;
 Every year more than 60% of global industrial carbon dioxide emissions
belong to industrialized countries where only about 20% of the world
population lives;
 Whereas the growth in emissions in developing countries is a result of the
attempt of providing basic human needs to the entire population, in
industrialized countries it contributes to the growth in a standard of living
which is already higher than the average person.
Why is Sea Level Change such an important consequence of Global Warming?
Sea Level Change is caused by Climate Change and it’s linked primarily to three
factors:
1) Thermal expansion: the rising of water temperature causes it to expand and
since the ocean over the past century has become warmer it has also
increased in volume
2) Melting of glaciers and polar ice caps: glaciers and ice caps melt naturally
each summer, in winter snow forming should balance the amount of melted
water but recently due to higher temperatures the amount of melted water
is much more than the snow, this imbalance has caused sea levels to rise
3) Ice loss from Greenland and West Antartica: Greenland and West Antartica
are covered with massive ice sheets that melt naturally in the summer,
however higher temperatures have caused them to melt and break off faster
Sea Levels Worldwide have been rising about 0.14 inches every year since the
1990s and during the past century they rose by 4 to 8 inches.
This phenomenon has different effects in different parts of the globe, that is why
there is a distinction between Sea Level Change and Local Sea Level Change, the
latter is due to changes in density, temperature and salinity of oceans as well as
to changes in the water circulation, atmospherical pressure and water and ice
redistribution between the land and the ocean.
Coral Reef Ecosystem
The increase in oceans’ temperatures has a destructive effect on the coral reef
ecosystem, more and more frequently mass coral bleaching events and infectious
disease outbreaks are occurring. This causes great damage to the coral reef
ecosystem and to all the population that benefits from it.
El Niño
The expansion of seawater also leads to regional phenomenon that affects
different parts of the world:
El Niño is a large-scale interaction between ocean and atmosphere, which is
linked to a periodic rising in the sea surface temperatures. This phenomenon
causes significant weather changes and many environmental disasters in
different parts of the world.
The following map presents the countries that have been affected by El Niño
during the past year:
El Niño has a counter part known as La Niña. During La Niña’s times the sea
surface temperature is below-average, its impacts as well as temperature
variations tend to be opposite from El Niño’s.
Costal Flooding
The constant and increased rise of Sea Level causes cities on the coast and islands
to gradually disappear, this problem does not affect all countries since as stated
above the Rising of Sea Levels is not equal all over the world.
The real problem about this issue is understanding how many people fear a
death threat, here is a list of the 20 most endangered countries with both the
number of people in danger (million) and the percentage of the country as a
whole:
China
Vietnam
Japan
India
Bangladesh
Indonesia
Thailand
Netherlands
Philippines
Myanmar
USA
UK
Brazil
Germany
50.5
23.4
12.8
12.6
10.2
10.2
8.2
7.8
6.2
4.7
3.1
2.6
1.7
1.7
4%
26%
10%
1%
7%
4%
12%
47%
7%
9%
1%
4&
1%
2%
France
Malaysia
Taiwan
South Korea
Nigeria
Italy
1.3
1.2
1
1
0.8
0.8
2%
4%
4%
2%
1%
1%
What has been done
The Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol is a treaty negotiated in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan that
became active on February 16th 2005 after the participating countries all ratified
it. Its ultimate goal is to lower emissions from the six main greenhouse gases since
their increase would bring disastrous consequences, by agreeing to this treaty
industrialized countries committed to a reduction of emissions of greenhouse
gases to 5.2% below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012 (first term). The second
term is extended to 2020 and the reduction in required to be an 18% on 1990
levels.
On December 13th 2011 Canada was the first country that ratified the protocol to
pull out of it, its main concern was the cost on the tax payer.
The Paris Agreement
The COP21 (the UNFCCC’s 21st session of the Conference of the Parties) took
place from 30th November to 12th December 2015 in Paris, France. This COP was
particularly successful because in led to the adoption of the first international
climate agreement, which was concluded by 195 countries. The Agreement is
twelve pages long and it’s composed by a preamble followed by 29 articles. Its
aims are to keep the global temperature rise below 2°C during the 21st century
and to ensure the ability of countries to deal with the impact of climate change.
The parties are required to report regularly on their emissions and on their efforts
to achieve the agreement’s goals.
Possible solutions
Since Global Warming is an issue that concerns every country, its citizens and
economy it is fundamental that all parties cooperate.
In order to counter the greenhouse effect successfully it could be useful to found
researches on non-greenhouse gases in order to decrease their usage by
industries and privates
Furthermore keeping in mind that non-renewable energies, such as oil, methane
and carbon are the main cause of pollution worldwide researches could be found
on renewable energies in order to substitute the former and prevent their effects.
In the areas known to be at high risk of natural catastrophes caused by global
warming precautionary measures could be taken in order to prevent damage.
Having viewed the two agreements currently in force (the Kyoto Protocol and the
Paris Agreement) strict controls should be established in order to prevent
countries from not respecting them.
Useful links
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/glossary/items/3666.php
http://climate.nasa.gov/
http://www.noaa.gov/
Sources
http://www.livescience.com/topics/global-warming
http://www.globalissues.org/issue/178/climate-change-and-global-warming
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z
http://www.kyotoprotocol.com/resource/kpeng.pdf
http://bigpicture.unfccc.int/#content-the-paris-agreemen
http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/les-mots-de-laccord/
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification
https://www.envirotech-online.com/news/environmentallaboratory/7/breaking_news/which_countries_are_most_at_risk_of_rising_sea_le
vels/35807/