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Forum: Environment Issue: Dealing with the impact of global warming and rising sea levels Student Officer: Teresa Tessari Introduction Global Warming is, to all intents and purposes, a world problem that affects the environment, as much as humans and animals. Global Warming is overall a natural effect that has rapidly sped up during the past century, due to a large increase in human activity. This fast change is believed to permanently affect the Earths climate. Over the past century the Earth’s average temperature has risen between 0.4 and 0.8 °C mainly because of human activity. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has carried out a research that predicts an increase between 1.4 and 5.8 °C in the Earth’s temperature over the next 100 years. Some of the most dangerous and visible Global Warming effects are the sea level change and an increase in the violence of storms and other weather events around the globe. Key Terms Greenhouse effect The rise in the Earth’s temperature caused by certain gases (such as Carbon Dioxide) that by staying in the atmosphere trap some of the energy that is meant to go back to the universe; just like the glass in a greenhouse; Sea Level Change Increase or decrease in sea level due to ice sheets and glaciers melting (caused by Global Warming); its main effects are regional phenomena (El Niño, La Niña) and ocean acidification; Kyoto Protocol treaty negotiated in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan by 192 parties, with the aim of helping member states to reduce emissions; Paris Agreement agreement concluded in December 2015, first to be concluded between 195 parties and applicable to all, which provides limitation of the temperature rise; Overview of the issue How does Global Warming affect the world? The Earth’s climate has changed throughout history, in the past 650,000 years there have been seven cycles of glacial advance and retreat; the beginning of modern climate era is marked by the last ice age (about 7,000 years ago), since then human civilization has begun and the current Global Warming problem is particularly alarming because most of it is caused by human activity and there has not been a similar one over the past 1,300 years. The main Global Warming causes are human-induced, in fact the more industrialized our world becomes the more fossil fuels we burn. The process of burning fossil fuels causes the release of greenhouse gases (such as Carbon Dioxide) which create the famous Greenhouse Effect. The warming of the climate has many alarming effects that are likely to create a vicious circle since each problem will worsen others which will feed back into each other: Increase in greenhouse emissions; Aggravation of Ozone loss; Permafrost melting; Oceanic changes such as Ocean Acidification; Massive extinction of species which leads to environmental crisis; Collapse of biological and ecological system; Extreme weather patterns such as hurricanes, drought, floods, longer spells of dry heat or intense rain (also known as Super Storms); It is certain that Global Warming will affect the entire globe but some areas are more likely to suffer from more intense effects: Northern Europe could be affected with colder weather as the Gulf Stream (which keeps countries such as the United Kingdom, Ireland and Northern European countries) could be cut off; In South Asia the Himalayan glaciers could retreat and cause water scarcity; Developing countries are probably going to be more affected due to different reasons such as: lacking of resources to solve the issue or limit the damage, poverty, geographical reasons (small islands are already seeing the effects of sea levels rising) Between 1991 and 2010 the most affected countries were: 1. Bangladesh 2. Myanmar 3. Honduras 4. Nicaragua 5. Haiti 6. Vietnam 7. Dominican Republic 8. Pakistan 9. Korea, DPR 10. Philippines But those are not the only areas that also experienced incidents of very damaging and extreme weather conditions as the map shows: An example of the damages that Global Warming leads to is the Hiayan typhoon which occurred in the Philippines on the 8th of November 2010 with 10,000 feared dead and 9 million affected. How does the Greenhouse Effect work? The Greenhouse Effect is a natural phenomenon increased by human action. The sun sends energy (ultra violet radiation) to the Earth, which changes in weather and climate and heats the global surface, in return the earth radiates energy back into space. This process is altered by some atmospheric gases which trap some of the energy meant to leave the earth, just like the panels of a greenhouse, thanks to this process some of the heat is held back in the earth’s atmosphere and the global temperature rises. Greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N20) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) Water vapour However it is not only the natural Carbon fluxes that make up the Greenhouse Effect, this phenomenon is in fact worsen by human activities such as fuel burning and deforestation. When burning fossil fuels extracted from the Earth’s crust we move carbon far more rapidly than it would naturally, this causes carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere to increase. Natural Greenhouse Effect has occurred since the creation of the Earth’s atmosphere and its gases but only with the advent of global industrialization (late 1800s) it has been affected by human activity; in 1900 the CO2 level has risen by 40% due to the beginning of larger transports employment; today the concentration of carbon dioxide is the highest it has ever been at least in the past half-million years. Since 1950: The United States of America has emitted roughly 50.7 billion tons of carbon China (4.6 times more populous than the US) has emitted 15.7 billion tons India (3.5 times more populous than the US) has emitted 4.2 billion tons These numbers will rise. Nowadays, as well as in the past not all countries have affected the Greenhouse Effect the same way: Industrialized countries account for around 80% of the carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere to this day; Every year more than 60% of global industrial carbon dioxide emissions belong to industrialized countries where only about 20% of the world population lives; Whereas the growth in emissions in developing countries is a result of the attempt of providing basic human needs to the entire population, in industrialized countries it contributes to the growth in a standard of living which is already higher than the average person. Why is Sea Level Change such an important consequence of Global Warming? Sea Level Change is caused by Climate Change and it’s linked primarily to three factors: 1) Thermal expansion: the rising of water temperature causes it to expand and since the ocean over the past century has become warmer it has also increased in volume 2) Melting of glaciers and polar ice caps: glaciers and ice caps melt naturally each summer, in winter snow forming should balance the amount of melted water but recently due to higher temperatures the amount of melted water is much more than the snow, this imbalance has caused sea levels to rise 3) Ice loss from Greenland and West Antartica: Greenland and West Antartica are covered with massive ice sheets that melt naturally in the summer, however higher temperatures have caused them to melt and break off faster Sea Levels Worldwide have been rising about 0.14 inches every year since the 1990s and during the past century they rose by 4 to 8 inches. This phenomenon has different effects in different parts of the globe, that is why there is a distinction between Sea Level Change and Local Sea Level Change, the latter is due to changes in density, temperature and salinity of oceans as well as to changes in the water circulation, atmospherical pressure and water and ice redistribution between the land and the ocean. Coral Reef Ecosystem The increase in oceans’ temperatures has a destructive effect on the coral reef ecosystem, more and more frequently mass coral bleaching events and infectious disease outbreaks are occurring. This causes great damage to the coral reef ecosystem and to all the population that benefits from it. El Niño The expansion of seawater also leads to regional phenomenon that affects different parts of the world: El Niño is a large-scale interaction between ocean and atmosphere, which is linked to a periodic rising in the sea surface temperatures. This phenomenon causes significant weather changes and many environmental disasters in different parts of the world. The following map presents the countries that have been affected by El Niño during the past year: El Niño has a counter part known as La Niña. During La Niña’s times the sea surface temperature is below-average, its impacts as well as temperature variations tend to be opposite from El Niño’s. Costal Flooding The constant and increased rise of Sea Level causes cities on the coast and islands to gradually disappear, this problem does not affect all countries since as stated above the Rising of Sea Levels is not equal all over the world. The real problem about this issue is understanding how many people fear a death threat, here is a list of the 20 most endangered countries with both the number of people in danger (million) and the percentage of the country as a whole: China Vietnam Japan India Bangladesh Indonesia Thailand Netherlands Philippines Myanmar USA UK Brazil Germany 50.5 23.4 12.8 12.6 10.2 10.2 8.2 7.8 6.2 4.7 3.1 2.6 1.7 1.7 4% 26% 10% 1% 7% 4% 12% 47% 7% 9% 1% 4& 1% 2% France Malaysia Taiwan South Korea Nigeria Italy 1.3 1.2 1 1 0.8 0.8 2% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1% What has been done The Kyoto Protocol The Kyoto Protocol is a treaty negotiated in December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan that became active on February 16th 2005 after the participating countries all ratified it. Its ultimate goal is to lower emissions from the six main greenhouse gases since their increase would bring disastrous consequences, by agreeing to this treaty industrialized countries committed to a reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases to 5.2% below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012 (first term). The second term is extended to 2020 and the reduction in required to be an 18% on 1990 levels. On December 13th 2011 Canada was the first country that ratified the protocol to pull out of it, its main concern was the cost on the tax payer. The Paris Agreement The COP21 (the UNFCCC’s 21st session of the Conference of the Parties) took place from 30th November to 12th December 2015 in Paris, France. This COP was particularly successful because in led to the adoption of the first international climate agreement, which was concluded by 195 countries. The Agreement is twelve pages long and it’s composed by a preamble followed by 29 articles. Its aims are to keep the global temperature rise below 2°C during the 21st century and to ensure the ability of countries to deal with the impact of climate change. The parties are required to report regularly on their emissions and on their efforts to achieve the agreement’s goals. Possible solutions Since Global Warming is an issue that concerns every country, its citizens and economy it is fundamental that all parties cooperate. In order to counter the greenhouse effect successfully it could be useful to found researches on non-greenhouse gases in order to decrease their usage by industries and privates Furthermore keeping in mind that non-renewable energies, such as oil, methane and carbon are the main cause of pollution worldwide researches could be found on renewable energies in order to substitute the former and prevent their effects. In the areas known to be at high risk of natural catastrophes caused by global warming precautionary measures could be taken in order to prevent damage. Having viewed the two agreements currently in force (the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement) strict controls should be established in order to prevent countries from not respecting them. Useful links http://unfccc.int/essential_background/glossary/items/3666.php http://climate.nasa.gov/ http://www.noaa.gov/ Sources http://www.livescience.com/topics/global-warming http://www.globalissues.org/issue/178/climate-change-and-global-warming http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z http://www.kyotoprotocol.com/resource/kpeng.pdf http://bigpicture.unfccc.int/#content-the-paris-agreemen http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/les-mots-de-laccord/ http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Acidification https://www.envirotech-online.com/news/environmentallaboratory/7/breaking_news/which_countries_are_most_at_risk_of_rising_sea_le vels/35807/