Download 4b. GCOS-indicators_WDAC6 - World Climate Research Programme

CI
THEGCOS
INDICATORSOF
CLIMATECHANGE
GCOSSecretariat,WMO
Carolin Richter,SimonEggleston,ValentinAich,TimOakley
Rationale
TheGCOSImplementation Plan2016:
1. ActionG3:Developmentofindicatorsofclimatechange:
Devisealistofclimateindicatorsthatdescribetheongoing
impactsofclimatechangeinaholisticway.Considerthe
workoftheWMO,IPCCandothers.Indicatorsmayinclude:
heatingoftheocean,risingsealevel,increasingocean
acidity,meltingglaciersanddecreasingsnow,changesin
arcticseaice,changesinvegetationcharacteristicsand
distributionsandlandcoverchanges.
2. ActionG4:IndicatorsforAdaptationandRisk:
Promotedefinitionofandresearchsupportingthedevelopmentofindicators
linkingphysicalandsocialdriversrelatingtoexposure,vulnerabilityand
improvedresilience,inlinewithnationalrequirements.
“Asmallnumberofvitalsignsandanarrativetogowith,willmaybesavethe
world(ChrisRapley)
2Typesofindicators:
Lagging/Historicindicators:Describethephysicalstateoftheclimatesystem
anditshistoricaldevelopment.
Needistoidentifyasmallsetofessentialclimateindicatorsforthepurposeof
communicationofclimatechangetodate.Surfacetemperatureisnotthebest
indicatorofclimatechangeasitisapooroverallthermodynamicdescriptorof
theEarth’senergybalance.Abroadersetofindicatorswouldbetterdescribeand
communicatethefullrangeofphysicalclimatechangeoverthelast150years.
Leading/Futureindicators:lookatfutureimpact,riskandadaptation
Needtoidentifyasetofindicatorsthatcanbeusedtoinformmanagementof
climatechangeanditssocietalimpactsinthefutureandwhichwillhelpin
assessingwhetherpolicymakersaremakingtherightdecisionsintermsof
mitigationandadaptation.Establishingasetoffutureindicatorsrequiresthe
involvementofabroadercommunity,includingsocio-economicexperts.
Existingclimatechangeindicators
• JointCCl/WCRP(Clivar)/JCOMMExpert
TeamOnClimateChangeDetection
AndIndices(ETCCDI):37indicatorsof
extremes
• WCRPindicators
• WMOindicators
• Copernicus(C3S)indicators
• IGBP:ClimateChangeIndex
• NASA:5vitalsigns
• EPA:37global/nationalindicators
• NOAA:7indicators
• NOAA/BAMS:StateofClimate Report
• EEA:48indicators
• UNEP/GEO:Core indicators
• IPCCAR5:list ofClimate Change
Indicators (9)
• GERMANWATCH:Globalclimate
risk indicators
• NotreDameGlobalAdaptation
Index
• ClimateChangeHealthIndicators
EPA
• EurostatClimateChangeand
Energyindicators
• Briggsetal.2015,Nature:5
indicators
• …
Theprocesstowardsphysicalindicators
1
1st Climate indicator workshop(Dec.2016)
Areasforphysical indicators:
•
Temperature/Energy
•
Atmospheric composition
•
Oceans
3
•
Cryosphere
•
Extremes
•
Landuse/vegetation
4
2
Criteria ofindicators:
•
Relevance
•
Traceability
•
Timeliness
•
Limitednumber
2nd Climate indicator workshop(Feb.2017)
5
Climate indicators discussed andrefined insciencepanels
6
Physical(«Historical»)Indicators published
Criteriaforphysicalindicators
Relevance:
Eachshouldbeaclear,understandableindicatorofglobalclimatechange,which
hasbroadimpactforarangeofaudiences.Someindicatorswillalsohavenationalandregionalvalues.
Representativeness
:Indicatorsasapackageshouldprovidea
representativepictureofchangestotheearthsystemrelatedtoclimatechange.
Traceability:
TheIndicatorsshouldbecalculatedusinganinternationallyagreed(and
published)method.
Timeliness:
Shouldbecalculatedregularly(atleastannually)withashortlagbetweenthe
endoftheperiodandpublishingthedata.
Limitednumber:
indicatorsshouldbelimitedtolessthan10.
Toallowclear,concise,communicationthenumberof
Indicators
Topic&
Headline&
Indicator&
Temperature& Global&surface&
and&Energy&
temperature&
Baseline&
Subsidiary&
Indicators&
Pre?
Ocean&Heat&
industrial&
Content,&&
temperature
&
s&
Notes&
Availabilit
y&
The&near&surface&
temperature&is&important&
for&political&process,&is&a&
target&of&the&Paris&
agreement,&and&is&well&
understood&by&public.&
NOAA,&
NASA,&UK&
Met&Office&
Top?of?the?
atmosphere&
energy&balance& Need&a&more&
understandable&name&for&
top?of?the?atmosphere&
energy&balance&
Atmospheric&
composition&
Atmospheric&CO2& Pre?
(ppm)&
industrial&
Methane,&&
Oceans&
Sea&Level&Rise&
1870&
Ocean&
Acidification,&
Ocean&Heat&
Content&
Reconstructed&from&a&
CSIRO&
combination&of&tide&gauges&
and&satellite&altimetry&
Cryosphere&
Sea&Ice&Extent&
???&
Arctic&and&
Antarctic&sea&
ice&extent&
Arctic&and&Antarctic&ice&
should&be&not&reported&in&
total&as&a&single&number&
and&a&second&indicator&
would&be&needed&for&the&
terrestrial&cryosphere&
NASA&
&
Area&of&land&
???&
covered&by&snow&
and&Ice???&
N2O,&
hydrogenated&
greenhouse&
gases&
&
While&mole&concentrations& GAW&
are&measures&this&not&
widely&understood:&talk&
about&concentrations&for&
wide&understanding&
NASA&
Land&use/&
vegetation&
Deforestation&
Average&of& &
(area&per&year).& previous&10&
Urbanization?&
years&
Derived&for&satellite&data&
time&series&using&
landsat/sentinel&regular&&
???&
Extremes&
Heatwaves&
???&
WMO&CCI&
NOAA&
&
&
&
Heatwave&
magnitude&
index&
Extreme&rainfall& &
Drought&
Indicators
Area
Indicator
Subsidiaryindicator
Globalsurfacetemperature
OceanHeatContent,
Top-of-the-atmosphereenergy
balance
Atmospheric
Composition
AtmosphericCO2 (ppm)
Methane,
N20,hydrogenatedgreenhousegases
Ocean
SeaLevelRise
OceanAcidification,OceanCarbon
Cryosphere
ArcticSeaIceExtent/Antarctic
SeaIceExtent
AreaoflandcoveredbysnowandIce
Landuse/vegetation
Deforestation
Extremes
Heavyprecipitation/
Heatwaves/Drought
Temperature/Energy
Openquestions
1. Isacommonbaselinepossibleandifyes,which?
2. Landuse/vegetation:Isthereamoresuitableindicatorfordeforestation?
3. Extremes:Whatindicatorsshouldcoverheatwaves,droughtsandheavy
precipitation?Aretheproposedonesthebestavailablefortheglobalapproach
• Heatwaves:HeatWaveMagnitudeIndex(Russoetal.:Magnitudeofextreme
heatwavesinpresentclimateandtheirprojectioninawarmingworld.J.
Geophys.Res.Atmos.2014,119,12,500-12,512.)
• Droughts:StandardizedPrecipitationandEvapotranspirationIndex(Beguería,
etal.:Standardizedprecipitationevapotranspirationindex(SPEI)revisited:
parameterfitting,evapotranspirationmodels,tools,datasetsanddrought
monitoring.Int.J.Climatol.2014,34,3001–3023).
• HeavyPrecipitation:95%percentileofrain(Klein-Tanketal.:Guidelineson
Analysisofextremesinachangingclimateinsupportofinformeddecisionsfor
adaptation.Clim.DataMonit.2009,72.)
2nd WorkshoponIndicators
3Febraury 2017:
Ø Discussoutcomeofpreviousmeeting
Ø Definingaprocessforestablishingthebestfutureclimateindicators:Thekeyissues
arehowtoprovideadviceforpolicymakers,society,howtogofromsciencedatato
usefulinformation,whatisthebestwayforwardandhowtopublishthe
information.Thefutureindicatorsneedtosayhowwellacountryisadapting:isit
gettingbetterorworse?
Ø ACTION: Holdaworkshoptodiscussfutureindicators.Discussionsshouldcover:
needsforindicatorsandtargetaudiences,agreefuturestepstosecurebroad
agreementontheseheadlineindicators.
2nd WorkshoponIndicators
Discussion:
Ø Planningforadaptationneedsanunderstandingoffutureriskandhowitmaychange:Whatwoulda
oneinahundred-yearstormlooklikein100years’time?
Ø Planningforfutureimpactsneedsanunderstandingnowofworst-casescenarios,e.g.highest
possiblesealevelrise,largestfloodorbiggestheatwavetoguideplanningdecisionseveniftheyare
implementedoverfuturedecades.
Keyissues:
Ø Manygroupsaddressclimateriskmanagementlookingatextremesandtheimpactsofextremes.We
shouldusethisworkandthereforeweneedtomapoutwhatalreadyexists.
Ø Othercommunities,particularlyinterdisciplinarybodies,shouldbeinvolvedtogettheirperspectives.
Ø Thereneedstobeadialoguebetweenobservers,modellersandtheadaptationandresilience
community.
Ø Differingbaselinesisanissueforcommunicationscausingconfusionandobscuringmessages.
Ø Forhistoricindicators,globalindicatorsmakesense.However,forthefutureones,datashouldbe
morelocalandrelevant.Localisimportantasitfocusses onthepopulation’sconcernsandsoattracts
people’sattention.Whiletheinputmaybeglobal,theuseislocal.
Outlook:Impactindicators
1
Typesofindicators:
•
Health
•
Energy
•
Economy
•
Agriculture
•
Water
•
…?
2
Involve relevantcommunities (adaptation)
3
PresentspecificproposalstotheGCOS
SteeringCommitteeinOctober2017
Mainproblems:
• Traceability:Notsolelyphysicalparametersbutalsoinformationabouttheobject,
i.e.economy,healthconditions,crops,populationdensity,etc.→increasesthe
degreesoffreedomandmakesindicatorsmorearbitrary
• Representativenessvs.limitednumber:E.g.forhealth,manydifferenteffectstake
place→makeschoicearbitrary
• Attribution:Difficulttoseparatevulnerabilityfromtheimpact,e.g.floods
Thankyou!
gcos.wmo.int