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CI THEGCOS INDICATORSOF CLIMATECHANGE GCOSSecretariat,WMO Carolin Richter,SimonEggleston,ValentinAich,TimOakley Rationale TheGCOSImplementation Plan2016: 1. ActionG3:Developmentofindicatorsofclimatechange: Devisealistofclimateindicatorsthatdescribetheongoing impactsofclimatechangeinaholisticway.Considerthe workoftheWMO,IPCCandothers.Indicatorsmayinclude: heatingoftheocean,risingsealevel,increasingocean acidity,meltingglaciersanddecreasingsnow,changesin arcticseaice,changesinvegetationcharacteristicsand distributionsandlandcoverchanges. 2. ActionG4:IndicatorsforAdaptationandRisk: Promotedefinitionofandresearchsupportingthedevelopmentofindicators linkingphysicalandsocialdriversrelatingtoexposure,vulnerabilityand improvedresilience,inlinewithnationalrequirements. “Asmallnumberofvitalsignsandanarrativetogowith,willmaybesavethe world(ChrisRapley) 2Typesofindicators: Lagging/Historicindicators:Describethephysicalstateoftheclimatesystem anditshistoricaldevelopment. Needistoidentifyasmallsetofessentialclimateindicatorsforthepurposeof communicationofclimatechangetodate.Surfacetemperatureisnotthebest indicatorofclimatechangeasitisapooroverallthermodynamicdescriptorof theEarth’senergybalance.Abroadersetofindicatorswouldbetterdescribeand communicatethefullrangeofphysicalclimatechangeoverthelast150years. Leading/Futureindicators:lookatfutureimpact,riskandadaptation Needtoidentifyasetofindicatorsthatcanbeusedtoinformmanagementof climatechangeanditssocietalimpactsinthefutureandwhichwillhelpin assessingwhetherpolicymakersaremakingtherightdecisionsintermsof mitigationandadaptation.Establishingasetoffutureindicatorsrequiresthe involvementofabroadercommunity,includingsocio-economicexperts. Existingclimatechangeindicators • JointCCl/WCRP(Clivar)/JCOMMExpert TeamOnClimateChangeDetection AndIndices(ETCCDI):37indicatorsof extremes • WCRPindicators • WMOindicators • Copernicus(C3S)indicators • IGBP:ClimateChangeIndex • NASA:5vitalsigns • EPA:37global/nationalindicators • NOAA:7indicators • NOAA/BAMS:StateofClimate Report • EEA:48indicators • UNEP/GEO:Core indicators • IPCCAR5:list ofClimate Change Indicators (9) • GERMANWATCH:Globalclimate risk indicators • NotreDameGlobalAdaptation Index • ClimateChangeHealthIndicators EPA • EurostatClimateChangeand Energyindicators • Briggsetal.2015,Nature:5 indicators • … Theprocesstowardsphysicalindicators 1 1st Climate indicator workshop(Dec.2016) Areasforphysical indicators: • Temperature/Energy • Atmospheric composition • Oceans 3 • Cryosphere • Extremes • Landuse/vegetation 4 2 Criteria ofindicators: • Relevance • Traceability • Timeliness • Limitednumber 2nd Climate indicator workshop(Feb.2017) 5 Climate indicators discussed andrefined insciencepanels 6 Physical(«Historical»)Indicators published Criteriaforphysicalindicators Relevance: Eachshouldbeaclear,understandableindicatorofglobalclimatechange,which hasbroadimpactforarangeofaudiences.Someindicatorswillalsohavenationalandregionalvalues. Representativeness :Indicatorsasapackageshouldprovidea representativepictureofchangestotheearthsystemrelatedtoclimatechange. Traceability: TheIndicatorsshouldbecalculatedusinganinternationallyagreed(and published)method. Timeliness: Shouldbecalculatedregularly(atleastannually)withashortlagbetweenthe endoftheperiodandpublishingthedata. Limitednumber: indicatorsshouldbelimitedtolessthan10. Toallowclear,concise,communicationthenumberof Indicators Topic& Headline& Indicator& Temperature& Global&surface& and&Energy& temperature& Baseline& Subsidiary& Indicators& Pre? Ocean&Heat& industrial& Content,&& temperature & s& Notes& Availabilit y& The&near&surface& temperature&is&important& for&political&process,&is&a& target&of&the&Paris& agreement,&and&is&well& understood&by&public.& NOAA,& NASA,&UK& Met&Office& Top?of?the? atmosphere& energy&balance& Need&a&more& understandable&name&for& top?of?the?atmosphere& energy&balance& Atmospheric& composition& Atmospheric&CO2& Pre? (ppm)& industrial& Methane,&& Oceans& Sea&Level&Rise& 1870& Ocean& Acidification,& Ocean&Heat& Content& Reconstructed&from&a& CSIRO& combination&of&tide&gauges& and&satellite&altimetry& Cryosphere& Sea&Ice&Extent& ???& Arctic&and& Antarctic&sea& ice&extent& Arctic&and&Antarctic&ice& should&be¬&reported&in& total&as&a&single&number& and&a&second&indicator& would&be&needed&for&the& terrestrial&cryosphere& NASA& & Area&of&land& ???& covered&by&snow& and&Ice???& N2O,& hydrogenated& greenhouse& gases& & While&mole&concentrations& GAW& are&measures&this¬& widely&understood:&talk& about&concentrations&for& wide&understanding& NASA& Land&use/& vegetation& Deforestation& Average&of& & (area&per&year).& previous&10& Urbanization?& years& Derived&for&satellite&data& time&series&using& landsat/sentinel®ular&& ???& Extremes& Heatwaves& ???& WMO&CCI& NOAA& & & & Heatwave& magnitude& index& Extreme&rainfall& & Drought& Indicators Area Indicator Subsidiaryindicator Globalsurfacetemperature OceanHeatContent, Top-of-the-atmosphereenergy balance Atmospheric Composition AtmosphericCO2 (ppm) Methane, N20,hydrogenatedgreenhousegases Ocean SeaLevelRise OceanAcidification,OceanCarbon Cryosphere ArcticSeaIceExtent/Antarctic SeaIceExtent AreaoflandcoveredbysnowandIce Landuse/vegetation Deforestation Extremes Heavyprecipitation/ Heatwaves/Drought Temperature/Energy Openquestions 1. Isacommonbaselinepossibleandifyes,which? 2. Landuse/vegetation:Isthereamoresuitableindicatorfordeforestation? 3. Extremes:Whatindicatorsshouldcoverheatwaves,droughtsandheavy precipitation?Aretheproposedonesthebestavailablefortheglobalapproach • Heatwaves:HeatWaveMagnitudeIndex(Russoetal.:Magnitudeofextreme heatwavesinpresentclimateandtheirprojectioninawarmingworld.J. Geophys.Res.Atmos.2014,119,12,500-12,512.) • Droughts:StandardizedPrecipitationandEvapotranspirationIndex(Beguería, etal.:Standardizedprecipitationevapotranspirationindex(SPEI)revisited: parameterfitting,evapotranspirationmodels,tools,datasetsanddrought monitoring.Int.J.Climatol.2014,34,3001–3023). • HeavyPrecipitation:95%percentileofrain(Klein-Tanketal.:Guidelineson Analysisofextremesinachangingclimateinsupportofinformeddecisionsfor adaptation.Clim.DataMonit.2009,72.) 2nd WorkshoponIndicators 3Febraury 2017: Ø Discussoutcomeofpreviousmeeting Ø Definingaprocessforestablishingthebestfutureclimateindicators:Thekeyissues arehowtoprovideadviceforpolicymakers,society,howtogofromsciencedatato usefulinformation,whatisthebestwayforwardandhowtopublishthe information.Thefutureindicatorsneedtosayhowwellacountryisadapting:isit gettingbetterorworse? Ø ACTION: Holdaworkshoptodiscussfutureindicators.Discussionsshouldcover: needsforindicatorsandtargetaudiences,agreefuturestepstosecurebroad agreementontheseheadlineindicators. 2nd WorkshoponIndicators Discussion: Ø Planningforadaptationneedsanunderstandingoffutureriskandhowitmaychange:Whatwoulda oneinahundred-yearstormlooklikein100years’time? Ø Planningforfutureimpactsneedsanunderstandingnowofworst-casescenarios,e.g.highest possiblesealevelrise,largestfloodorbiggestheatwavetoguideplanningdecisionseveniftheyare implementedoverfuturedecades. Keyissues: Ø Manygroupsaddressclimateriskmanagementlookingatextremesandtheimpactsofextremes.We shouldusethisworkandthereforeweneedtomapoutwhatalreadyexists. Ø Othercommunities,particularlyinterdisciplinarybodies,shouldbeinvolvedtogettheirperspectives. Ø Thereneedstobeadialoguebetweenobservers,modellersandtheadaptationandresilience community. Ø Differingbaselinesisanissueforcommunicationscausingconfusionandobscuringmessages. Ø Forhistoricindicators,globalindicatorsmakesense.However,forthefutureones,datashouldbe morelocalandrelevant.Localisimportantasitfocusses onthepopulation’sconcernsandsoattracts people’sattention.Whiletheinputmaybeglobal,theuseislocal. Outlook:Impactindicators 1 Typesofindicators: • Health • Energy • Economy • Agriculture • Water • …? 2 Involve relevantcommunities (adaptation) 3 PresentspecificproposalstotheGCOS SteeringCommitteeinOctober2017 Mainproblems: • Traceability:Notsolelyphysicalparametersbutalsoinformationabouttheobject, i.e.economy,healthconditions,crops,populationdensity,etc.→increasesthe degreesoffreedomandmakesindicatorsmorearbitrary • Representativenessvs.limitednumber:E.g.forhealth,manydifferenteffectstake place→makeschoicearbitrary • Attribution:Difficulttoseparatevulnerabilityfromtheimpact,e.g.floods Thankyou! gcos.wmo.int