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North East England
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Baselines and Trajectories Study
Summary report
THE NEED FOR ACTION
Under a ‘business as usual’ scenario, the region will fail to deliver against the Government’s obligations
under the Climate Change Act and international agreements.
North East England faces a significant challenge in reaching national CO 2 reduction targets and will not
meet these targets under existing policies.
If we carry on as we are, by 2050 our emissions will be nearly 39 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalent.
Our obligation under the Climate Change Act means we need to reduce this figure to 7.7 million tonnes.
Background
Greenhouse gas emissions are a
major cause of climate change.
The majority of the world’s
leading scientists now agree
that the speeding up of natural
climate change by human
activities cannot continue if we
are to protect the environment
that we depend on and avoid
the economic and social costs of
adverse climate change.
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The UK has a legally binding
target under the Kyoto
Protocol to reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases by 12.5 per
cent below 1990 levels by 2012.
Through the Climate Change
Act 2008 it has also set itself a
more ambitious target to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions by 80
per cent below 1990 levels by
2050, with an aim of achieving a
26 per cent reduction in carbon
dioxide emissions by 2020.
North East England is
committed to tackling climate
change and reducing the
production of greenhouse gases
that can be attributed to our
region. Although we do not
have specific regional targets for
reduction of emissions, we do
have a duty to contribute to the
overall UK targets.
North East england greenhouse
gas emissions baselines and
trajectories study
This is a summary report of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Baselines Trajectories Study.
The full report can be found online at www.climatene.org.uk
The study was commissioned to measure the contribution that we are making to local, regional, national
and international targets for the reduction of greenhouse gases.
Through the study we have :
• produced a comprehensive greenhouse gas emissions inventory for North East England ;
• developed a regional tool to enable the region to monitor its emissions ;
• produced emissions trajectories showing the impact of existing regional plans and strategies ; and
• developed a methodology for the region to use when developing future strategies to show the effect
on emissions of future development proposals.
Key Findings
Research from the study shows that :
• 80 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions in the North East in 2005 are CO 2 emissions ;
• the biggest source of emissions in the North East is from the industrial sector;
• trajectories to 2050 show an increase in emissions in the North East, particularly from transport ;
and
• existing regional policies and actions will not deliver the reductions required for the North East to
meet UK emissions reduction targets.
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Greenhouse gas emissions for North East England
The study has produced an emissions inventory
for North East England with a baseline year of
2005 and projections forward to 2020 and 2050.
It also provides reference figures for 1990,
although this was not used as the baseline year
as the data necessary to compile a sufficiently
detailed North East inventory does not exist
for 1990.
Projections have been based on the Department
for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform’s
Updated Energy Projections, which provide
projections and analysis of energy use and CO 2
emissions in the UK.
The region’s current trajectory will lead us
to an increase in emissions rather than a
reduction to 7.7 million tonnes.
The Science
This study has measured emissions of the basket of six greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto
Protocol, the current international agreement on greenhouse gas emissions.
These are carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH 4), nitrous oxide (N 2O), and the three so called F gases
(gases containing fluorine) sulphur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons.
In the UK, emissions of carbon dioxide account for approximately 85 per cent of the total emissions.
Other greenhouse gases, known collectively as the Kyoto Basket after the Kyoto Protocol, are
measured in carbon equivalents (CO 2e) and weighted accordingly.
Methane is 21 times more potent than CO 2 and accounts for 8 per cent of total UK emissions.
Methane emissions derive mostly from decomposing landfill and from enteric fermentation in the
stomachs of livestock. Leakage from the gas transmission network and releases of methane from
closed coal mines also contribute.
Nitrous oxide is 310 times more potent than CO 2 and accounts for approximately 6 per cent of total
UK emissions. These are mainly from nitrogenous fertilisers applied to the land and emissions from
the transport sector and industry.
Chlorofluorocarbons (HFCs and SF 6) are used as coolants for fridges and in aerosols. Whilst these
are produced in relatively small quantities they are many thousand times more potent than CO 2.
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Estimated emissions for 1990
Emissions for 2005
The study shows that in 1990 the total CO2
equivalent emissions based on the global warming
potential for all six greenhouse gases was over
70 million tonnes in the North East. Over 50 per
cent of these emissions were due to CO2, and the
majority of those CO 2 emissions related to industry.
By 2005 emissions of the overall basket of
greenhouse gases had dropped to just over 40
million tonnes. This was mainly due to falls in
nitrous oxides as a result of industrial changes
and widespread switching to use of gas as a fuel
in all energy sectors. As a result, over 80 per cent
of the emissions in 2005 were due to CO 2 and
this is therefore one of the main focuses of policy
in relation to emissions reductions.
The change in emissions between 1990
and 2005 for the three major greenhouse
gases is illustrated in Figure 1 below
Figure 1
N2O
1990
2005
CH4
CO2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Annual Emissions (M. Tonnes CO2 Equivalent)
40
45
Projected emissions to 2020 and 2050
From 2005 decreases are projected in the residential and industrial sectors, mainly due to customers
continuing to switch to gas supply and energy efficiency measures. However, these reductions in
the domestic and industrial sectors are projected to be offset by the increase in other sectors, mainly
transport, in particular shipping.
Annual Emissions (M. Tonnes CO 2 Equivalent)
The overall picture for greenhouse gas emissions presented by the study is shown in Figure 2 below.
80
Figure 2
70
60
50
Public and Commercial
Agriculture and Land Use
Aviation and Shipping
Waste
Road Transport
Residential
Industry
40
30
20
10
0
1990
2005
2020
2050
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The study identified that a major change in the mix of the region’s greenhouse gas emissions
occurred between 1990 and 2005. From 2005 onwards, the mix of greenhouse gases is projected to
remain relatively stable with CO 2 being the predominant greenhouse gas. Table 1 identifies the total
greenhouse gas emissions for the four study years and the proportions attributable to CO 2.
Table 1 The contribution of CO 2 and ‘non- CO 2 ’
GHG to total CO 2 e across North East England
1990
2005
2020
2050
Total
Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
73,320,602
42,425,397
42,026,703
43,927,187
CO 2
38,535,825
37,170,066
36,996,153
38,859,659
CO 2 as %
of Emissions
52.56%
87.61%
88.03%
88.46%
Whilst the picture for greenhouse gas emissions might appear encouraging, particularly the period
between 1990 and 2005, international agreements and domestic legislation are focused on carbon
dioxide emissions. Here the picture is less optimistic and data from the study is presented in Table 2.
Table 2 Summary of observed and projected
regional CO 2 emissions by sector (tonnes)
Sector
1990
2005
2020
2050
Industry
23,421,183
22,770,365
19,545,698
19,545,698
Road
Transport
3,532,762
4,608,085
4,851,936
5,591,032
Residential
6,635,990
6,115,283
3,971,832
4,262,769
Public and
Commercial
1,293,735
935,488
792,815
792,815
Aviation and
Shipping
2,440,125
2,536,334
7,309,338
7,505,908
Agricultural
and Land Use*
258,218
-159,637
160,387
797,289
Waste
953,812
364,147
364,147
364,147
Total
38,535,825
37,170,066
36,966,153
38,859,659
* Includes carbon sink as well as sources
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What does this mean?
The information in these tables shows that :
• CO 2 emissions from the industrial sector are by
far the biggest source of regional greenhouse gas
emissions ;
• CO 2 emissions in 2005 were still 96.5 per cent
of those estimated for 1990 and are estimated
to form the overwhelming proportion of regional
emissions into the future ;
• Although the domestic sector is projected to
have greatly reduced CO 2 emissions by 2020
compared to 2005, it remains a significant sector
for emissions beyond that time and is projected
to increase between 2020 and 2050 due to
demographic factors ;
• Road transport CO 2 emissions are projected to
continue increasing from 2005 onwards ;
• ‘Other transport’ CO 2 emissions are projected to
increase dramatically over the period 2005 to 2020
due to the significant growth of port facilities in
the North East ; and
• By 2020, there is expected to be little change in
total CO 2 equivalent compared to 2005 because
reductions from the residential and industrial
sector are forecast to be offset by the increase in
emissions from other sectors, mainly shipping.
• This means that under a ‘business as usual’
scenario, the region would fail to deliver against
the Government’s obligations under the Climate
Change Act and international agreements.
The region’s current trajectory will lead to an
increase in emissions, rather than a reduction to
7.7 million tonnes.
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POLICY and legislation
The study also considered the extent to which existing regional and national policies would enable the
region to deliver its contribution to the greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
There are a number of policies and strategies that set out the requirement for the UK and regions to
address climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the actions necessary to do this.
National Policy
Climate Change Act
The Climate Change Act 2008 received Royal
Assent in November 2008. The Act contains a
variety of provisions relating both to climate
change mitigation and adaptation. It puts into
statute the targets to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions through domestic and international
action by at least 80 per cent by 2050 and to
reduce carbon dioxide emissions by at least 26 per
cent by 2020, against a 1990 baseline.
The Act sets out a new approach to managing and
responding to climate change in the UK through
setting ambitious targets, taking powers to help
achieve them, strengthening the institutional
framework, enhancing the UK’s ability to adapt
to the impact of climate change and establishing
clear and regular accountability to the UK,
Parliament and devolved legislatures.
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Climate Change
Programme
The 2006 Climate Change Programme sets out
the Government’s international and domestic
commitments to tackling climate change.
It includes existing and new additional measures
for the energy supply sector, business, transport,
domestic emissions, the public sector, agriculture,
forestry and land management, and measures to
encourage action by individuals.
However, even with the inclusion of the new
additional measures, the programme estimates
that all measures together will only lead to ‘a
reduction in the UK’s carbon dioxide emissions
to 15 to 18 per cent below 1990 levels’, still
significantly below the original domestic goal.
UK Renewable
Energy Strategy
The UK Government carried out a major renewable
energy strategy consultation in 2008.
An announcement of the UK’s new Renewable
Energy Strategy is expected in spring 2009.
This process has great significance for the scope
and scale of the UK’s approach to renewable
energy sources. Last spring the UK agreed with
other EU Member States to an EU-wide target of
20 per cent renewable energy by 2020, including a
binding 10 per cent target for the transport sector.
The European Commission has proposed that the
UK share of this target would be to achieve 15 per
cent of the UK’s energy from renewables by 2020,
which is equivalent to almost a ten-fold increase
in renewable energy consumption from current
levels.
Department of Energy
and Climate Change
Energy efficiency initiatives continue to be a major
part of the UK’s carbon reduction programmes.
The formation of the Department of Energy and
Climate Change, announced in October 2008, will
undoubtedly add focus to these initiatives and
it can be expected that further emphasis will be
placed on national energy efficiency programmes
and approaches in due course.
Planning Policy Statement 1
Planning Policy Statement 1 sets out the key
principles that must be applied to ensure planning
and development plans and decisions contribute
to the delivery of sustainable development.
The subsequent ‘Planning and Climate Change :
Supplement to PPS1’ takes this commitment
further and states that :
“Tackling climate change is a key Government
priority for the planning system. The ambition
and policies in this PPS should therefore be
fully reflected by regional planning bodies in
the preparation of Regional Spatial Strategies,
by the Mayor of London in relation to the
Spatial Development Strategy in London and by
planning authorities in the preparation of Local
Development Documents. Similarly, applicants
for planning permission should consider how well
their proposals for development contribute to the
Government’s ambition of a low carbon economy
and how well adapted they are for the expected
effects of climate change.”
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Code for Sustainable Homes
The Code for Sustainable Homes is a new
national standard for the sustainable design
and construction of new homes. It is designed
to sit alongside the building regulations and
the planning system. The Code measures the
sustainability of a new home against nine
categories of sustainable design. It uses a 1
to 6 star rating system to assess the overall
sustainability of a new home.
Principally, it is a response to the need for further
improvement in the energy efficiency of new
buildings, to both mitigate and adapt to climate
change. The code will chart the future direction
of the building regulations for the next 10 years,
with the Government having set a target of all
new build homes being zero carbon by 2016 with
a staged programme of revisions to the Building
Regulations to achieve this.
Local authorities
Local authorities (LAs) have a key role to play
in achieving the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions
reductions. A key driver is the new local authority
performance framework of 198 outcome-based
indicators.
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Three of these indicators
relate directly to climate
change mitigation :
• National Indicator 185: CO 2 reduction from
Local Authority operations
• National Indicator 186: Per capita
reduction in CO 2 emissions in the LA area
• National Indicator 187: Tackling fuel
poverty.
• In North East England, six out of the 12
local area agreements include National
Indicator (NI) 186 and five include NI
187. Targets set for NI 186 within each
Local Area Agreement range from between
around 11 and 13 per cent by 2011.
This, alongside the targets set for NI
187 in the region, will make a valuable
contribution the overall emissions
reductions in the region.
Regional Policy
It is important to understand whether regional
policies currently provide a comprehensive
coverage of the sectors of the economy and
society from which emissions arise, and therefore
can be said to have a scope adequate to the scale
of the task.
Currently the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) and
the Regional Economic Strategy (RES), coupled
with the emerging Climate Change Action Plan,
are the key delivery routes for the reduction of
emissions in the region.
Further significant and concerted policy action
is required to meet this challenge and the future
Single Regional Strategy will be a key driver for
this.
A qualitative assessment of the coverage of these
key strategies against the three principal sectors
for emissions in the region shows us that none
of these three sectors can be comprehensively
covered by existing policies and actions.
The scope of regional emissions reduction policies
in relation to key sectors
Residential
Industry
Road Transport
Regional
Spatial Strategy
****
**
**
Regional
Economic Strategy
***
****
**
Climate Change
Action Plan
***
*
**
The ratings shown in the table range from complete coverage ( ***** ) to incomplete coverage
( * ) and are qualitative independent assessments by AEA Energy and Environment.
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AEA concluded that the new RSS has a significant policy context, which will assist the region to strive
towards emissions reductions from future development activity and its associated land use. It reinforces
national policy on housing, non-domestic development and sustainable energy sources.
It is at the level of the Local Development
Frameworks (LDF) and the development control
decisions arising from these LDFs, that the
potentially very significant role of the RSS has
more scope to deliver changes to decision making
and to ensure that climate change mitigation is
given the significant weight that it requires in
order to have a strong influence on emissions
reduction.
Recommendation 1: Policy intentions set
As is clear from all recent analyses of emissions
from the domestic sector nationwide, it is the
emissions performance of existing dwellings
that will largely determine the extent of
further reductions in this area, beyond the
downward trend for new build envisaged by
the prospective implementation of the Code
for Sustainable Homes through future building
regulations. Some of the provisions within
the current RES Action Plan are therefore of
critical importance in assisting retrofit and
refurbishment of domestic dwellings.
Recommendation 2: The current RES
The RES is also the appropriate home for
further and faster regional action on industrial
CO 2 emissions. Programmes such as the
Energy Resource Efficiency Programme and
its forthcoming replacement activity are an
appropriate response to these challenges.
Recommendation 3: The region must
The strength of the regional policy response
to road transport emissions issues is clearly
determined in part by the ability of regional
institutions to influence the sector through
policy, funding or other means. Nevertheless in
the face of rising road transport emissions and
uncertainty over the policy approach at national
level there seems to be a clear opportunity for
the North East to strengthen its resolve in this
area.
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out within the Regional Spatial Strategy must
be vigorously driven forward within Local
Development Frameworks and development
control approaches across the region. Without
this vigour the Regional Spatial Strategy will
not deliver its intentions on the ground, in
the face of ‘business as usual’ constraints.
Action Plan priorities to tackle sustainable
communities and regeneration must be
aligned very closely with the need to ensure
that emissions mitigation can be vigorously
tackled in the existing domestic stock. Their
scale and scope must be greatly increased for
them to be commensurate with the scale of
the challenge.
address what needs to be done to significantly
add to what can be achieved through national
emissions reduction programmes. This is of
particular importance due to the significance
of industrial CO 2 emissions across North East
England.
Recommendation 4: The current
suggested Climate Change Action Plan action
to ‘research, develop and implement large
scale H 2 fuel cell systems’ is illustrative of
the type of initiative that could add strength
to the region’s response to increasing road
transport emissions. We must increase the
profile and effect of transport policy actions
such as modal shift (changing to public
transport), which will have positive effects on
emissions and a variety of other policy goals
such as obesity and accessibility.
North East England faces a significant challenge in reaching national CO 2 reduction targets and existing
policies will not meet these targets. Further significant and concerted policy action is required to meet
this challenge, for which the forthcoming Single Regional Strategy should form a clear focus.
Current regional policies,
programmes, and actions will not
be sufficient to deliver the scale of
emissions reductions required by
the UK’s targets because :
• policy coverage for the key emissions
sectors of residential, industry and
road transport is not comprehensive
– for example, there is insufficient
attention given to the significant
emissions reduction required from
the existing domestic building stock;
• the strength of existing emissions
reduction policies and programmes
is insufficient to guarantee delivery
of the required scale of emissions
reduction – for example, there
should be much greater support
provided through programmes such
as the Energy Resource Efficiency
initiative to help reduce industrial
emissions ;
• the overall position of emissions
reduction within wider regional
policy and programme objectives
and priorities, particularly the RES
and the RSS, is not currently of high
enough priority to overcome the
inertia associated with decarbonising
the economy and society – in
particular the RES needs to give a
much higher profile to emissions
reduction as an overarching priority.
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REGIONAL ACTIONS
‘Business as usual’ approaches to achieving the UK’s targets will be insufficient, as shown by the
precedent of the UK’s Climate Change Programme.
The region’s current trajectory will lead to an increase in emissions, rather than a reduction to 7.7
million tonnes.
In light of the emissions inventory results produced by the study, North East England must develop
further targeted actions for specific sectors to ensure that we have the maximum impact on reduction of
emissions.
Based on a qualitative analysis, the study identified that the two sectors where specific targeted actions
could have the greatest impact were the domestic and industrial sectors.
The criteria used to identify these sectors were :
• the absolute scale of emissions from the sector
(based on 2020 projections)
• the projected trend from 2005 onwards
• the scope for regional intervention
• the total scope for intervention
• measurability of successful emissions
reductions.
The study identified a number of specific actions
for the domestic and industrial sectors that will
enable regional policies and programmes to have a
greater impact on the reduction of CO 2 emissions
into the future.
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Domestic sector
Industrial sector
• enhance monitoring of the uptake and
application of current RSS mitigation policies ;
• major scale-up of regional activity relating to
resource efficiency within industry (particularly
related to emissions reduction) ;
• develop and implement suitable policy
or development standards for emissions
mitigation in refurbishment and regeneration ;
• develop and implement stronger links
between sustainable regeneration policies and
associated RES funding ;
• major scale-up of regional activity relating
to economic benefits from sustainable
construction and sustainable energy
techniques ; and
• ensure that the North East gains its share of,
and benefits effectively from, national Climate
Change Programme funding streams relating
to sustainable construction.
• development of further ‘corporate commitment’
actions within the RES Action Plan ; and
• ensure that the North East gains its share of,
and benefits effectively from, national Climate
Change Programme funding streams relating to
industrial emissions reduction.
There are also some more generic actions that
will be applicable to all sectors :
• lobby for national policy changes that will
complement and support the proposed targeted
regional actions ; and
• make or reinforce links with other regions
in order to share experience and reinforce
approaches within specific sectors, particularly
industry and transport.
In conclusion, the study provides the region with a sound assessment of our current and projected
regional greenhouse gas emissions, based on nationally accepted methodology,
It shows us that, without a strengthening of policy and stronger emphasis on practical delivery through
innovative thinking, sharing of best practice and vigilance, the region will not succeed in moving to the
low carbon economic base that will benefit our economy, our people and our environment.
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FURTHER INFORMATION
Sustaine would like to thank the following partners for their contribution : Government Office for the North East, North
East Assembly, North East Regional Information Partnership, Northumberland Strategic Partnership and One North East.
This study was carried out by AEA Energy and Environment who have also carried out the national emissions inventory
work for the UK Government.
A copy of the full Greenhouse Gas Emissions Baselines and Trajectories Study is available online at www.climatene.org.uk
For information about the emissions methodology please contact David Mell at NERIP on 0191 229 6411 or email
[email protected]
Photo Montage : Kimmerston Design Ltd. (www.kimmerston.co.uk)
Photography by : Peter Atkinson ([email protected])
Design and Production by Ideographic Ltd. ([email protected])
©Crown Copyright January 2009