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Download Tackling Climate Change: The role of the engineer
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Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol and Civil Engineering Dr Stuart Parkinson http://www.sgr.org.uk The basic science… • Natural ‘greenhouse effect’ – Sun’s heat trapped by greenhouse gases (GHGs) • Human emissions of GHGs trapping more heat • This ‘global warming’ is leading to changes in climate • Assessment of scale of the problem provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Defining the climate problem • Present global temperatures – are 0.7C higher than 100y ago – are higher than at any time in the last 1000y • Predicted global temperatures in 2100 – will be between 1.4 and 5.8C higher than 1990 – will increase faster than at any time since the transition from last Ice Age (10,000y ago) Lead to major changes in climate Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature: 1000 to 2100 • 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; • 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental; • 2000 to 2100, SRES projections Source: IPCC (2001) Reliability of scientific assessment • Physics of Greenhouse Effect well understood (observations of Earth, Mars, Venus) • Wide range of data on past climate – eg ‘ice cores’ show carbon dioxide and temperature have varied together over past 420,000y • Climate models calibrated on past changes used to predict future changes CO2 versus temperature Human emissions of GHGs • Carbon dioxide (60% of warming effect) • from burning coal, oil, gas for energy; and deforestation • Methane (20%) • from gas leaks, livestock, paddy fields • ‘F’ gases, eg HFCs (14%) • from fridges, air-conditioning, electronics industry etc • Nitrous oxide (6%) • from nylon industry, agriculture etc What will be the effects? • Sea level rise – approx 0.5m by 2100 • ‘More energetic hydrological cycle’ – More severe weather, eg storms, floods in some areas, with droughts in others • Large regional changes in climate – Jeopardising food, water supplies • Risk of dramatic/ irreversible climate shifts • Poorer countries most vulnerable Possible impacts Recent UK Meteorological Office study… • Increase in people facing ‘water stress’ – extra 3 billion (four-fold increase) by 2080 • Increase in people facing malaria – extra 290 million by 2080 • Increase in people facing flooding – Eight-fold increase by 2080 • Substantial die-back of tropical forests Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) • Agreed at Rio Earth Summit in 1992 • Aim: ‘to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’ • Method: control of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions • Industrialised countries agreed to act first • 190 countries now ratified Kyoto Protocol (KP) • Agreed in 1997 • Set targets and timetables for control of emissions of 6 GHGs in 38 industrialised countries (and EU) • Combined target equals 5.2% reduction in net emissions between 1990 and 2008-2012 • Allowed for use of carbon trading, carbon sinks (forestry etc) KP Targets • EU: 8% overall cut compared to 1990 – UK: 12.5% cut; Germany: 21% cut; France: 0% • • • • • USA: 7% cut Japan: 6% cut most Eastern European countries: 8% cut Russia: 0% Australia: 8% increase KP current status • Entered into force on 16th February, 2005 • Ratified by 150 countries • USA, Australia not ratified for ‘economic’ reasons Tackling CO2 emissions • Change energy production – Fuel switching, renewables, cogeneration, carbon capture and storage, nuclear? • Preserve and improve forestry – Conservation, reforestation, afforestation • Improve energy efficiency – Buildings/ transport/ industrial sectors Improving energy efficiency in buildings sector Buildings Global CO2 emissions in 1990 (MtC/y) Annual growth rate (1990-95) Potential reduction in 2010 (MtC/y) Potential reduction in 2020 (MtC/y) 1650 1.0% 700-750 1,000-1,100 Notes Buildings emissions are approx 25% of total global CO2 emissions from all sectors Figures include construction and use of buildings Most reductions available at negative net direct cost Source: IPCC (2001) Technical measures • Over 200 technical energy efficiency measures have been identified in buildings sector • Main areas – insulation (roofs/ walls/ windows); efficient space heating/ water heating/ ventilation; efficient appliances/ lighting; environmental design; energy management systems; local energy sources (eg Bipv) Technical measures • Space heating is largest energy user • ‘Integrated building design’ reduces energy use by 40% on average • Use of energy efficient appliances/ lighting reduces energy use by 40% on average • ‘Aggressive implementation’ can lead to major GHG reductions and be cost-saving UK efforts • Gov estimates UK will beat KP target – GHG emissions reduced by 21% by 2010 • Buildings sector – Business • UK ETS; climate change levy; CC agreements – Domestic • Energy Efficiency Action Plan; promotion of new technologies Conclusions • Climate change resulting from human activity is an extremely serious global threat • Buildings sector is a major source of GHG emissions • Environmental action by the civil engineering sector is both cost-effective and can make a very large contribution to tackling the problem