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American Public University System DigitalCommons@APUS Master's Capstone Theses 2-2016 Climate Change Impacts on New York Wine Grape Growing Regions Benjamin L. Davis Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.apus.edu/theses Part of the Environmental Health and Protection Commons, and the Environmental Monitoring Commons Recommended Citation Davis, Benjamin L., "Climate Change Impacts on New York Wine Grape Growing Regions" (2016). Master's Capstone Theses. Paper 73. This Capstone-Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by DigitalCommons@APUS. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Capstone Theses by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@APUS. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Climate Change Impacts on New York Wine Grape Growing Regions A Master Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of American Public University by Benjamin Lee Davis In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science February 2016 American Public University Charles Town, WV The author hereby grants the American Public University System the right to display these contents for educational purposes. The author assumes total responsibility for meeting the requirements set by United States copyright law for the inclusion of any materials that are not the author’s creation or in the public domain. © Copyright 2015 by Benjamin Lee Davis All rights reserved. DEDICATION I dedicate this Master Thesis to my wife, Deborah, and children, Ethan and Emily, who have provided me with the strength, understanding, and support to complete my long overdue college education. Thank you. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to thank my professor Dr. Jason M. Siniscalchi for providing the direction and guidance that successfully led me through completion of this thesis. I had the good fortune to benefit from Dr. Siniscalchi’s expertise at the onset of my course work in the environmental policy and management program and his knowledge and advice led me through its conclusion. ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING REGIONS by Benjamin Lee Davis American Public University System, November 8, 2015 Charles Town, West Virginia Jason M. Siniscalchi, PhD, Thesis Professor This study aimed to determine whether changes in climate would influence the quality and quantity of New York wine grape growing regions by analyzing historical temperature and precipitation levels and forecasting future levels. It was shown that the climate in New York and within New York climate divisions that encompass federally accepted New York American Viticultural Areas has changed over time; specifically average minimum, average maximum, and overall average temperatures have gradually increased since the year 1895 with statistical significance. The cool New York climate is normally on the edge of acceptability for supporting many of the grape varieties that produce high quality wine. Results of statistical forecasting conducted in this study revealed a potential for the future quantity or quality of New York grape growing regions to expand and the possibility of incorporating more high quality wine producing grape varieties in New York viticulture because of gradually warming temperatures. Table of Contents I. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 11 Problem Statement ..................................................................................................... 12 II. Literature Review .............................................................................................................. 13 Global Climate Change ............................................................................................. 13 United States Climate Change .................................................................................. 16 New York Climate Change ....................................................................................... 18 Climate Change Research Needs .............................................................................. 18 Climate Change in Wine Grape Regions ................................................................. 19 Hypothesis / Research Questions.............................................................................. 25 III. Research Design .............................................................................................................. 26 Purpose Statement ..................................................................................................... 26 Variables and Data Collection .................................................................................. 26 Analysis Procedures .................................................................................................. 28 IV. Results ............................................................................................................................. 31 48 Contiguous States ................................................................................................. 31 Northeastern United States ........................................................................................ 33 New York State .......................................................................................................... 35 New York Climate Division Four............................................................................. 38 New York Climate Division Five ............................................................................. 44 New York Climate Division Nine ............................................................................ 50 New York Climate Division Ten .............................................................................. 55 V. Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 62 Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 62 Recommendations...................................................................................................... 72 Limitations ................................................................................................................. 73 Future Research ......................................................................................................... 74 References............................................................................................................................... 76 Appendices ............................................................................................................................. 83 List of Tables Table 1: Contiguous United States Annual Temperature and Precipitation ....................... 32 Table 2: Northeast United States Annual Temperature and Precipitation .......................... 35 Table 3: New York State Annual Temperature and Precipitation ...................................... 37 Table 4: New York Climate Division Four Annual Temperature and Precipitation ......... 41 Table 5: New York Climate Division Four Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of April through October. ............................................................. 42 Table 6: New York Climate Division Four Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant Season of November through March ........................................................ 44 Table 7: New York Climate Division Five Annual Temperature and Precipitation .......... 46 Table 8: New York Climate Division Five Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of April through October .............................................................................. 48 Table 9: New York Climate Division Five Annual Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant Season of November through March. ....................................................... 49 Table 10: New York Climate Division Nine Annual Temperature and Precipitation ....... 52 Table 11: New York Climate Division Nine Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of April through October. ............................................................. 53 Table 12: New York Climate Division Nine Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant Season of November through March. ....................................................... 54 Table 13: New York Climate Division Ten Annual Temperature and Precipitation......... 57 Table 14: New York Climate Division Ten Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of April through October. ............................................................. 59 Table 15: New York Climate Division Ten Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant Season of November through March. ....................................................... 60 List of Figures Figure 1: New York Wine Regions...................................................................................... 12 Figure 2: Changes to global average temperature and precipitation over time .................. 15 Figure 3: Chart depicting US average temperature change between the years of 1991 and 2012. ........................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 4: Chart depicting increase in number of very hot days in US Northeast. ............. 17 Figure 5: Map of New York Climate Divisions. .................................................................. 27 Figure 6: Maps of New York depicting percentage of area with temperatures below -5, 10, and -15 degrees. ................................................................................................... 69 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 11 I. Introduction The art of wine making is thought to have first occurred 6,000 years ago in the region of Mesopotamia (Cornell University [CU], 2008a). It is believed that Leif Eriksson brought the wine making industry to North America in the year 1000, but the native North American species of grape vine were not sufficient to render good quality wine, especially when compared to native European species (CU, 2008a). The use of a European variety of grape vine, Vitis vinifera, was attempted years later in North America, however this variety did not thrive in the new environment due to differences in climate, soil, and fauna (CU, 2008a). European colonists made due with passable wines until native North American grape varieties were taken to Europe, where experiments were conducted to improve them (CU, 2008a). Unfortunately, the North American species carried with it a root louse that decimated native European varieties that did not posses bark thick enough to protect it from the damaging louse (CU, 2008a). After this disaster, attempts were made to graft the European variety onto American variety rootstock, eventually new hybrids appeared that showed attributes of both species, the climate and pest resilience of the American species combined with the desirable wine qualities of the European species (CU, 2008a). Edward Ralph Emerson wrote of the American climate as historically suitable for wine making and traced the first mention of American wine being made available for purchase in the year 1622 (1901). Emerson also reported that in the year 1840 approximately 25,000 gallons of wine were made in the US, production that later climbed to 60 million gallons in the year 1901 (1901). Wine making in New York is thought to have been first attempted by the Dutch, who were foiled in their efforts by their own war and legal matters (Emerson, 1901). The English then acquired the New York territory and then Governor Nicolls began growing wine grapes on CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 12 his Long Island property (Emerson, 1901). A subsequent Governor also had great hopes for the future of New York wine and was excited on how well the grape vines grew along the Hudson River (Emerson, 1901). One of these Hudson River Valley vineyards was planted in 1837, within the town of Washingtonville, where the Brotherhood Winery started its operations (CU, 2008b; Emerson, 1901). Problem Statement With over 9,000 wineries in North America, the United States (US) is the fourth largest wine producer in the world, increasing wine production 45% since 2004 (Thach, 2015). Within the United States, New York (NY) is the fourth largest wine producing state, with five active wine-grape growing regions containing eight federally recognized American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) (Figure 1) (Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau [ATTTB], 2015; New York Wines [NYW], 2014). New York wineries are considered the oldest wine industry in the United States, with wine production as early as 1677, and New York possesses the oldest active winery in the United States, the Brotherhood Figure 1: New York Wine Regions (NYW, 2014). Winery, as mentioned previously, which produced its first commercial wine in 1839 (CU, 2008b; Hira & Gabreldar, 2013). The grape and wine production within these five regions produces $4.8 billion in economic benefit for New York, including 25,000 jobs, $1.14 billion in wages, and $408 million in state and local taxes (NYW, 2014). Over 175 million bottles of wine were bottled in 2014 using grapes grown by over 1,600 family owned vineyards and processed in more than 400 wineries (NYW, n.d.). This industry is also costly and risky to conduct; an CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 13 estimated capital investment of $32,300 is required per acre to establish a 50-acre wine grape production operation within the Finger Lakes region of New York (CU, 2014). The unique New York topography and climate provides the delicate balance of water, soil, and climatic conditions that permits growth of grapes of sufficient quality for use in wine production and the many benefits of viticulture, the science of cultivating grapevines (Bernetti, Menghini, Marinelli, Sacchelli, & Sottini, 2012; Fraga, Malheiro, Moutinho-Pereira, & Santos, 2014; Jones, White, Cooper, & Storchmann, 2005; Kizildeniz, Mekni, Santesteban, Pascual, Morales, & Irigoyen, 2015; White, Diffenbaugh, Jones, Pal, & Giorgi, 2006). Global climate change may threaten this delicate balance (Jones et al., 2005; Mira de Orduña, 2010; Mozell & Thach, 2014). Quality wine production is reliant on the ability of climate and topography to sustain high quality grape varieties (Bernetti et al., 2012). New York State wine regions were specifically chosen for this study because they provide substantial benefit to the New York economy, are at risk of extreme weather events, have limited topography for growing high quality wine grapes, and possess geographical and political barriers to northward expansion (NYW, 2014). II. Literature Review Literature was reviewed to determine availability and quality of global climate change data, the current needs for climate change research, climate change impacts on viticulture in general, and regional climate change effects on wine grape growing regions of the world, to include New York State. Specific topics of research included definitions of global climate change, the historical climate of New York, climate change trends in New York State, and the current extent of New York State wine grape growing regions. Global Climate Change Notably at a global level, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 14 published a Synthesis Report for their fifth climate change assessment (2014b). This key document was written by 308 scientists from 70 different countries and outlines the most current scientific assessment of climate change for planet Earth (IPCC, 2014b). The reason for these past and projected climate changes is the continued release of so called “greenhouse gases” from anthropogenic processes, the major greenhouse gases being carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) (IPCC, 2014b). As the human population grows and progresses, more greenhouse gases are released by anthropogenic sources; this progression is especially noticeable since the dawn of the human industrial era, around 1750 to 1800 (IPCC, 2014b). Since 1750, CO 2 emissions have risen by 40%, CH 4 emissions increased 150%, and emissions of N 2 O have increased by 20% (IPCC, 2014b). The IPCC reported that current levels of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere are higher now than they have been in the last 800,000 years and recent technological and industrial advances have compounded this problem, with greenhouse gas emissions between the years 2000 and 2010 being the highest in recorded history (IPCC, 2014b). Carbon dioxide emissions are by far the largest, accounting for 65% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2010, 40% of post 1750 CO 2 emissions have remained in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2014b). The true danger lies with an effect of these Greenhouse gas emissions, what the IPCC scientists termed radiative forcing (IPCC, 2014b). Radiative forcing is the reason behind the greenhouse gas title, the gases act like a greenhouse trapping thermal energy at the planet surface and cause an increase in near-surface temperature (Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], 2015c; IPCC, 2014b). Although near-surface warming results in direct effects of increased thermal energy, such as increases in temperature and decreases in ice and snow, it can also result in indirect or cumulative effects, such as changes to the global water cycle, upon which CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 15 ecosystems and climate are reliant (IPCC, 2014b). The IPCC scientists listed five main reasons for climate change concern; it further threatens unique and already fragile environmental systems, climate change will produce more extreme weather events, impacts will be unevenly distributed, and there are severe risks of harmful large-scale singular affects as well as synergistic harm from many smaller events (IPCC, 2014b). The IPCC is 95% percent convinced that humans have caused global warming (IPCC, 2014b). They found climate change to have affected natural systems on every continent, average precipitation rates in the Northern hemisphere have increased, and the global average land and ocean temperature has increased by 0.85 degrees Celsius (Figure 2) (IPCC, 2014b). The IPCC believed surface temperatures will rise throughout the 21st century regardless of greenhouse gas emission reductions (IPCC, 2014b). This rise will likely be between 0.3 and Figure 2: Changes to global average temperature and precipitation over time (IPCC, 2014b). 0.7 degrees Celsius by the year 2035 (IPCC, 2014b). The IPCC also reported with high confidence that terrestrial species have had to alter their geographic ranges and seasonal cycles (IPCC, 2014b). The authors were virtually certain that both hot and cold temperature extremes will become more frequent, with higher frequency and longer duration heat waves (IPCC, 2014b). They had high confidence that agriculture would be affected by climate change, with changes varying by crop, and authors expected that climate changes will produce more negative effects for agriculture than positive (IPCC, 2014b). A near-surface temperature increase of two degrees Celsius is expected to affect regional agriculture and crop yields (IPCC, 2014b). CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 16 United States Climate Change Similar to the international effort of the IPCC, Melillo, Richmond, & Yohe (2014) provided the United States (US) Global Change Research Program’s third assessment of climate change impacts in the United States. The authors reported that since the year 1895, the US average temperature has increased an estimated 0.7 to one degree Celsius, with the majority of warming having occurred since 1970 (Melillo et al., 2014). Figure 3: Chart depicting US average temperature change between the years of 1991 and 2012 (Melillo et al., 2014). The authors also explained that this warming has not occurred uniformly, there have been short-term fluctuations in weather, but overall there had been a steady climb in near-surface temperatures (Melillo et al., 2014). The hottest decade and year on record have both occurred since the year 2000 (Melillo et al., 2014). Melillo et al. expected temperatures to increase a further one to two degrees Celsius in the US over the next thirty years, even more by the end of the century (2014). This USGCRP assessment identified the Northeastern United States as having had a 71% increase in very heavy precipitation and the majority of New York has had an average temperature change greater than 0.55 degrees Celsius between the years of 1991 and 2012 (Figure 3) (Melillo et al., 2014). Like the IPCC, the USGCRP projected that heat waves will increase in frequency, intensity, and duration (Melillo et al., 2014). The USGCRP also believed that a future average temperature increase in the Northeast by the year 2080 could be as high as 2.8 to 6.6 degrees Celsius, potentially disrupting agriculture (Figure 4) (Melillo et al., 2014). In addition to changes in temperature, the Northeast US has seen a 70% rise in top one percentile CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 17 heavy precipitation events between the years 1958 and 2010 and a five to ten percent increase in New York annual precipitation is projected by Melillo et al. (2014). Directly related to this research proposal, Melillo et al. (2014) reported the New York Finger Lakes wine grape growers to have lost “millions of dollars” (p. 380) in 2003 and 2004 because of warm Decembers, followed by hard freezes. Also, the authors projected a ten-day increase in Northeastern seasonal frost-free days, essentially increasing the growing season length by ten days (Melillo et al., 2014). The Environmental Protection Agency Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks provided the most current assessment of the US contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions (2015c). The latest inventory of US greenhouse gas emissions is for the year 2013, and shows an increase of 5.9% since 1990 (EPA, 2015c). This increase was primarily from an increase of burning coal to generate electricity (EPA, 2015c). Although there was an overall increase during this time frame, the 2013 emission of 372 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MMT CO2 Eq.) was substantially lower than the 2007 peak of 1,099 MMT CO2 Eq. (EPA, 2015c). Carbon dioxide is by far the largest US greenhouse gas emission (82.5%) and is almost Figure 4: Chart depicting increase in number of very hot days in US Northeast (Melillo et al., 2014). completely produced by the burning of fossil fuels (93.7%) (EPA, 2015c). The US has maintained an average annual greenhouse gas emission increase of 0.3% since 1990; overall emissions are not decreasing (EPA, 2015c). CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 18 New York Climate Change Addressing climate change in New York specifically, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) had identified that warmer temperatures and more frequent heat stress can decrease the production quality of New York agricultural crops (Figure 4) (2011). They also warned that warmer temperatures may also allow invasive pests and plants to move into New York and threaten important agricultural species (NYSERDA, 2011). Warmer winters will result in less snow cover, which is relied on to insulate roots and without this insulation, root biology may be disturbed (NYSERDA, 2011). The NYSERDA (2011) found precipitation changes to be less easy to forecast, but projected that New York will see both an increase in heavy rainfall events and late summer droughts, both of which can damage agricultural crops. Important to this research, the NYSERDA believed New York to be in less jeopardy of climate change induced wine grape growing losses than other parts of the nation and may actually benefit from long term climate changes (2011). They did caution though that temperature variability in the winter months has caused frost damage to grape vines in the past (NYSERDA, 2011). Warmer temperatures have de-hardened vines, which suffered damage during subsequent freezes (NYSERDA, 2011). Climate Change Research Needs To help determine need for climate change research, a review of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Research Priorities on Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation: Responding to the Climate Change Challenge document was conducted (2013). The team of international scientists and policy makers from the Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation (PROVIA) have identified thirty-three prioritized climate change topics where further research is desired (UNEP, 2013). The document provided a CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 19 convenient single-point reference for future research that both scientists and policy makers consider a priority (UNEP, 2013). Of note for this research proposal, the PROVIA team found it important to determine climate change effects on agriculture at both the regional and local levels and develop an understanding of how climate will affect agricultural systems (UNEP, 2013). A group of academics, scientists, and economists calling themselves the Risky Business Project (RBP) and co-chaired by Michael Bloomberg, Henry Paulson, and Thomas Steyer, provided an economic assessment of climate change in the United States (RBP, 2014). This assessment reached many of the same climate change and climate shift conclusions as Melillo et al. (2014) and UNEP (2013), as well as predicted an increase in high temperature days in the Northeast United States, increasing from 2.6 days over 35 degrees Celsius to between 4.7 and 16 days above 35 degrees Celsius (RBP, 2014). The Project believes the United States agricultural system is capable of adapting at a national level, but projects difficulties for small farming communities to adapt to climate change, threatening local economies (RBP, 2014). Climate Change in Wine Grape Regions Jones et al. (2005) provided research directly related to the effect of climate change on global wine quality, stating that between the years 1950 and 1999, most of the wine regions of the world suffered from warming of the growing season. Jones et al. surmised that agricultural production will be negatively effected in the future from changes in winter hardening, frost, and the length of growing seasons and that these three changes are critical to viticulture (2005). The baseline climate of a region establishes what grape varieties can be grown, while climate variability influences overall quality (Jones et al., 2005). The length of the growing season and growing season temperatures are critical to developing grapes with the correct sugar levels, acidity, and taste (Jones et al., 2005). Jones et al. also provided climate requirements for CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 20 viticulture, as well as climate grouping and climate trends for thirty wine types and regions (2005). Their analysis included growing season average temperatures and trends, which included the months from April to October for the Northern Hemisphere, and average dormant season temperatures and trends, which are November to March in the Northern Hemisphere (Jones et al., 2005). Climate variables were averaged for the years 1950 to 1999 (Jones et al., 2005). The authors illustrate the delicate climatic balance needed for high quality wine grapes; cold regions may lead to more consistent quality, but those regions on the edge of suitability may become to cool to support any grape variety (Jones et al., 2005). Climates that warm may lessen freeze damage, but could result in conditions too warm to harden buds (Jones et al., 2005). Jones et al. did provide information for US wine regions, but not for US Northeastern regions (2005). A number or journal articles addressed climate change impacts within specific wine regions of the world (Bernetti et al., 2012; Fleming, Dowd, Gaillard, Park, & Howden, 2015; Fraga et al., 2014; Hira & Gabreldar, 2013; Jones & Davis, 2000; Lereboullet, Beltrando, & Bardsley, 2013; Webb, Whetton, & Barlow, 2007). Bernetti et al. (2012) used mathematical modeling to determine on how climate change may affect one specific region of the world, Tuscan viticulture within Italy. The authors found that climate change will have a substantial effect on Tuscan viticulture and may even require costly climate change adaptation strategies (Bernetti et al., 2012). Bernetti et al. also defined the term terroir, which is used to label the critical relationship between climate, soil, type of vine variety, and cultivation technique (2012). Terroir is specific to a grape growing geographical region and its particular set of conditions that produce high quality, diverse, and original regional wine (Bernetti et al., 2012). Bernetti et al. is also important to this research because it recognized the importance of habitat and climate for viticulture and identified nineteen very specific climatic traits that are important when modeling CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 21 climate change effects on viticulture (2012). The nineteen climatic traits used by Bernetti et al. (2012) include: the annual mean temperature; a mean of the monthly maximum temperature minus the minimum temperature; temperature seasonality; the maximum temperature of the warmest month; the minimum temperature of the coldest month; the annual range of temperatures; mean temperatures for the wettest, driest, warmest, and coldest months; annual precipitation; precipitation levels of the wettest and driest months; and the precipitation for the wettest, driest, warmest, and coldest quarters. Climate variables were averaged for the years 1950 to 2000 (Bernetti et al., 2012). Similar to Bernetti et al., Fraga et al. (2014) researched climate change effects on the Portuguese Minho region. This study identified several key climatic considerations for wine grape quality, such as the presence of frost during growing season, surface air temperatures between twelve and 22 degrees Celsius, and that temperatures over 35 degrees Celsius can damage grapevine leaves and grapes (Fraga et al., 2014). Fraga et al. also identified that weather conditions during the grape growing season greatly influences the quality and yield of wine, with climatic conditions specifically during the months of February through September being critical to viticulture (2013). Higher precipitation levels tend to result in lower wine grape production, while slight water stress can be beneficial to production (Fraga et al., 2014). Research conducted by Fleming et al. (2015) focused on the psychological stresses to farmers as they cope with climate change effects, but it also identified several important facts concerning Australian wine grape growing regions. The authors stated that Australian wine producers will be negatively affected by climate change, temperature and precipitation changes being the most concerning, although some of the wine production in cooler Australian climates may experience increased productivity (Fleming et al., 2015). Also, the authors stated that CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 22 climate change may affect wine production sooner than other agricultural systems, because grape varieties must be able to mature over several years before they are their most productive, effectively shortening the amount of time before adaptation strategies must be implemented (2015). When considering long-term climate change, these adaptations efforts may be substantial enough to lead to farm relocations and even closures (Fleming et al., 2015). Jones & Davis (2000) provided the results of a long-term climate study in Bordeaux, France designed to compare climate to grape phenology. Jones & Davis also identified that the climatic conditions of distinct regions of the world are what provide high quality wine grapes, an “optimum seasonal climate” (2000, p. 249). The authors stated the importance of understanding the stages of vine growth and understanding how climate directly influences optimal growth and production (Jones & Davis, 2000). The intervals between phenological events, such as the bursting of buds or flowering, correlate to the climate, the more ideal the climatic conditions, the shorter the intervals (Jones & Davis, 2000). Of importance to this study, Jones & Davis utilized daily measurements of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, hours of insolation, and precipitation levels for climate data for their study (2000). These climatic indicators were obtained for the years 1949 through 1997 (Jones et al., 2005). From these four indicators, Jones & Davis constructed further climatic indicators, such as the number of days that temperatures were less than -2.5 and -10 degrees Celsius, greater than 25 and 30 degrees Celsius, a composite of temperature and precipitation data to derive the estimated potential evapotranspiration, and a sum of average temperatures that correlates well with growing degree days (2000). These climatic indicators were then evaluated based on the critical stages of vine development (Jones & Davis, 2000). Overall, Jones & Davis found that grape vines have reached growth stages earlier and their growing season has become longer due to the changing climate, that precipitation CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 23 during certain stages of vine development could decrease production, and phenological changes could increase wine quality by altering levels of acid and sugar within the grapes (2000). Lereboullet et al. (2013) studied adaptation to climate change in the Rousillon wine region of France and the McLaren Vale wine region of Australia, both possessing a Mediterranean climate (CSb). The authors did not conduct a vulnerability study, but did state that past studies have shown the success of these wine regions to hinge on water resources, which are projected to be altered by climate change (Lereboullet et al., 2013). This article also listed two frequent methods to assessing future impact on wine grape production, using climatic indices to determining the future suitability of a region or showing the impact of climate on grape variety physiology (Lereboullet et al., 2013). Both study types completed for the two regions showed climate change to negatively impact wine grape production and quality (Lereboullet et al., 2013). Lereboullet et al. (2013) also provided examples of long-term climate change adaptation strategies, such as using technology to control application of water in specific climatic conditions. Lereboullet et al. concluded their study by recognizing climate change will alter agricultural systems, these systems will have to be modified to adapt, and adaptations can be successful in decreasing future climate stress (2013). Webb et al. (2007) also focused on Australian wine grape growing regions, studying the effects of climate change on two wine grape varieties, Chardonnay and Cabernet Sauvignon, which ripen at different times of the growing season. Webb et al. found temperature to be the most significant factor to grape development (2007). Their research showed that for the six wine grape growing regions they studied, five of them will have temperatures altered enough by climate change to affect the timing of budburst and grape harvest (Webb et al., 2007). As a result, grape harvest is projected to occur earlier in the season, during warmer temperatures, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 24 which reduces the quality of grapes (Webb et al., 2007). The authors projected grape harvest in Australia to occur up to 45 days early, which correlates to studies conducted in France that show harvest to occur one month earlier than it had fifty years ago (Webb et al., 2007). Hira & Gabreldar (2013) provided a comparison between the New York, Washington State, and Oregon wine industries. The authors reported that New York is a leading producer of grapes in the US and can produce a large quantity of wine, but the quality is concerning (Hira & Gabreldar, 2013). They also reported that 85% of New York wine is created in the Finger Lakes Region (Hira & Gabreldar, 2013). Hira & Gabreldar attributed the lesser quality of New York wine to the use of hybrid grape varieties, such as labrusca, the use of which are driven by the New York climate (2013). This literature review focused initially on global climate change, with temperature and precipitation changes at global and regional scales; addressed temperature and precipitation changes within New York itself; and then explored literature addressing climate change impacts to global and regional viticulture (Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], 2014, 2015a, & 2015b; IPCC, 2012, 2013, 2014a, 2014b; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Center for Environmental Information [NCEI], n.d.a & n.d.b.; New York State Department of Environmental Conservation [NYSDEC], 2015; New York State Energy Research and Development Authority [NYSERDA], 2011; New York Vineyard Site Evaluation System [NYVSES], n.d.; Northeast Regional Climate Center [NRCC], 2009; & United States Global Change Research Program [USGCRP], 2012). This research study was valuable because of the important socio-economic benefits the wine industry provides to New York, specifically the revenue it generates and the social impacts that would result from a loss of the wineproducing region in New York (NYW, 2014). New York is the fourth largest producer of wine CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 25 in the United States and relies on a very specific topography and climate to support it (Bernetti et al., 2012; Fraga et al., 2014; Kizildeniz et al., 2015; NYW, 2014; White et al., 2006). Changes to temperature and precipitation levels within these key New York grape growing regions could result in an unsuitable climate for growing the grapes used in the production of wine (Bernetti et al., 2012; Fraga et al., 2014; Kizildeniz et al., 2015; White et al., 2006). Research into the effects of climate change on New York wine producing regions is limited, although it has been accomplished extensively for other wine producing regions of the world (Bernetti et al., 2012; Fleming et al., 2015; Fraga et al., 2014; Hira & Gabreldar, 2013; Jones & Davis, 2000; Lereboullet et al., 2013; Webb et al., 2007). This research helped strengthen the understanding of global climate change affects to agricultural industries and specifically analyzed the future risk of climate change to reduce regionally important New York State wine grape growing regions. Hypothesis / Research Questions As a result, the primary hypothesis of this study was to correlate global climate change and reduction of suitable wine grape growing regions within New York State. In addition, the following research questions were addressed: (1) What are the climatic requirements for New York viticulture? (2) Has the New York climate changed over time? (3) Will forecasted climate change alter future quantity or quality of New York grape growing regions? Hypothesis: Global climate change will reduce New York State wine grape growing regions. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 26 III. Research Design Purpose Statement New York State possesses five socially and economically important wine grape growing regions that are highly dependent on unique climatic conditions to support high quality wine production (Bernetti et al., 2012; NYW, 2014). These climatic conditions are critical to the future of wine production in New York and may be threatened by future changes to the New York climate, such as deviations of temperature and precipitation levels from historical norms or increases in extreme weather events (Bernetti et al., 2012; NYW, 2014). This study quantitatively researched the correlation between global climate change and reduction of suitable wine grape growing regions within New York State. The independent variable in the hypothesis is “global climate change” and this study used the following definition of “global climate change”: significant changes in near surface temperature and precipitation measures for an extended time period (EPA, 2015b). The dependent variable in the hypothesis is the current geographic extent and climate of New York State wine grape growing regions, expressed as absolute locations, and their historical average near-surface monthly temperature and precipitation levels. Specifically, the geographic extent included all eight federally recognized American Viticultural Areas located within New York State (Figure 1) (ATTTB, 2015). Correlations between the independent and dependent variables were used to assess potential reductions in suitable wine grape growing regions in New York State due to climatic changes, reductions that would result in significant social and economic losses for local agricultural communities. Variables and Data Collection To scientifically validate the hypothesis and achieve the purpose of this study, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 27 quantitative research of several variables and seven units of analysis was required. Historical measurements for surface temperature and precipitation rates for the Earth, New York State, and the New York State wine grape growing regions were collected. The exact geographic boundaries of the current New York state wine grape growing regions were obtained from the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (ATTTB) 27 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Part 9 that outlines the boundaries of federally accepted American Viticultural Areas (AVAs) (Figure 1) (United States Government Publishing Office [USGPO], 2015). Climate measurements for the independent and dependent variables were acquired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI), the New York Vineyard Site Evaluation System (NYVSES), the Cornell University Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC), and further searches of scientific literature (NCEI, n.d.a. & n.d.b; NRCC, 2009; NYVSES, n.d.). Forecasted changes to United States and New York climates were obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on Figure 5: Map of New York Climate Divisions (National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center [NWSCPC], 2005). Climate Change, the United States Global Change Research Program, the American Meteorological Society, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), and extrapolated using trends derived from past climate data (Blunden & Arndt, 2015; EPA, 2014; IPCC, 2014a; NYSDEC, 2015; NYSERDA, 2011; USGCRP, 2012). CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 28 Analysis Procedures Microsoft Excel spreadsheet software was used to compile, analyze, and graphically portray climate data collected during this study from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) (n.d.b). Statistical analysis was conducted for average minimum, average maximum, and average monthly temperatures and precipitation levels for the 48 contiguous states, the Northeast United States, New York, and the four NOAA climate divisions (CD) of New York that cover all five New York wine grape growing regions; CDs 4, 5, 9, and 10 (NCEI, n.d.b). The contiguous United States data covered the 48 contiguous states (not Alaska and Hawaii) (NCEI, n.d.b). The Northeastern data encompassed the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont (NCEI, n.d.b). New York climatological subdivisions Coastal (4), Hudson Valley (5), Great Lakes (9), and Central Lakes (10) encompassed the land areas of the eight New York American Viticultural Areas (Figure 5). NCEI data utilized for this analysis included monthly averages of the years 1895 to 2014 for each of the seven units of analysis (NCEI, n.d.b). NCEI data is part of the US Climate Divisional Dataset, which is both temporally and spatially complete and provided historical climatic data since the year 1895 (NCEI, n.d.c). The NCEI calculated monthly values for each weather station in the 344 US climate divisions (n.d.c). Statewide and regional values are then calculated by NCEI using a geographical area weighting (NCEI, n.d.c). Wine critical time frames were averaged for each month and year data is available, providing trends in temperature and precipitation for each unit of analysis and allowing for comparison to the independent variable and other wine grape growing regions. Average CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 29 minimum, average maximum, and average monthly temperatures and precipitation levels for seasonal time frames critical to wine grape growing were separately grouped, analyzed, and compared to historical records. Critical time frames for viticulture included the growing season months of April through October and the dormant season months of November to March (Jones et al., 2005) Scientifically validated climate change predictions, specifically projected changes in temperatures and precipitation levels, and extrapolations of historical climate data were compared to viticulture climate requirements to determine potential effects on suitable wine grape growing regions within New York State. Specific analysis included line graphs and trend lines to illustrate trends in temperature and precipitation over time for all units of analysis. Bivariate linear line graphs portrayed correlations between climate data and its timeframe for each New York wine region, using regression lines and analysis and a standard alpha level of 0.05. Inferential analysis was conducted to determine the effects of future climate projections on the future suitability of present-day New York State wine grape growing regions. For each unit of analysis, the average minimum, average maximum, and average temperature measurements (degrees Fahrenheit) and precipitation levels (inches) were collected for all months during the years 1895 to 2014. This sample represents 480 sample points, four for each of the 120 years available, for each unit of analysis. All climate data was converted to metric units of measurement. Climate measurements obtained from NCEI were monthly averages; daily measurements were not available (NCEI, n.d.c). A line graph was constructed for each climatic indicator, with the climate measurement plotted on the y-axis and the year measured plotted on the x-axis. Linear trends lines illustrated the overall trend for each measurement, while correlation calculations provided the statistical significance of the climatic CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 30 indicator/time relationship. Forecasts were then calculated for the year 2050 to show predicated outcomes. The Microsoft Excel CORREL function was used to analyze correlation strength between each climatic indicator and time (Microsoft, 2015a). The CORREL function utilizes the following formula: In this formula, represent the mean for each array (Microsoft, 2015a). Correlations of - 0.5 to -1.0 and 0.5 to 1.0 were considered strong, while correlations of -0.5 to -0.3 and 0.3 to 0.5 were considered weak. All other correlation values were not considered statistically significant. Standard deviations were also calculated for each climatic indicator using the Microsoft excel function STDEV, which utilizes the formula: The variable x represents the sample mean, while n represents the sample size (Microsoft, 2015b). The Microsoft Excel statistical forecasting function was also utilized to produce year 2050 forecast (FORECAST) (Microsoft, 2015c). The FORECAST function is used to statistically predict future values based on existing values, in this case existing years and temperature and precipitation measurements, using the following formulas (Microsoft, 2015c): and In these two formulas, the x represents the average of known x-axis values (years) and the y represents the average of known y-axis values (temperature or precipitation values) (Microsoft, 2015c). Using these two formulas, Microsoft Excel can return the predicted temperature or precipitation value for a selected year of interest, in this instance the year 2050 was chosen. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 31 IV. Results 48 Contiguous States Analysis of the temperature and precipitation data for the 48 contiguous states provided an overview of US climate trends. Monthly results for the 48 contiguous states showed an upward sloping trend line for all monthly climatic indicators except for three, precipitation levels in January, February, and July showed declining trend lines. All temperature indicators showed an upward trend, meaning temperatures increased overall since 1895, although only four showed weak correlations and there were no strong correlations. June, July, and August average minimum temperatures and the August average temperature increased over time and all showed weak correlations, r(118) = 0.35, p<0.001; r(118) = 0.44, p<0.001; r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001; and r(118) = 0.30, p 0.001 respectively. Overall annual averages for each of the four climatic indicators resulted in upward sloping trend lines (Table 1). Three of the indicators provided weak or strong correlations. The average annual minimum temperature had a strong correlation of r(118) = 0.55, p<0.001, showing an overall increase in temperature from 1895 to 2014. The average annual temperature showed a strong r(118) = 0.50, p<0.001 correlation, also showing an overall increase in temperature since 1895. The average annual maximum temperature showed a weak correlation of r(118) = 0.41, p<0.001, revealing a lesser, but still apparent, increase in temperature since 1895. Results showed all annual average temperature indicators for the 48 contiguous states warmed over time. NCEI calculated a 0.08 degrees Celsius per decade increase for the annual average minimum temperature, which would result in a 0.28-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 and a year 2050 annual average minimum temperature of 4.82 degrees Celsius (NCEI, n.d.b). For both the annual average maximum temperature and the annual average temperature, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 32 the NCEI calculated their increase in temperature to be 0.07 degrees Celsius per decade, which would equate to a 0.25-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 and year 2050 values of 18.09 and 11.44 degrees Celsius respectively (NCEI, n.d.b). These year 2050 increases are lower than the Melillo et al. estimate of a one to two-degree Celsius increase in the US, but did show the US is slowly warming (2014). Using the Microsoft Excel FORECAST function provided a prediction of future values based on historical values. The FORECAST function predicted that by the year 2050 the annual average minimum temperature would reach 5.31 degrees Celsius, the annual average maximum temperature would reach 18.48 degree Celsius, and the annual average temperature will be 11.90 degree Celsius. These FORECAST values represented 0.77, 0.64, and 0.71-degree Celsius increases, respectively, over the historical averages and a little more than twice the increase as the NCEI rate suggests (NCEI, n.d.b). Annual Avg Annual Avg Annual Avg Annual Precip Min Temp Max Temp Temp (°C) Level (cm) (°C) (°C) Low 3.12 16.65 10.03 63.27 High 6.04 19.83 12.93 88.80 Average 4.54 17.84 11.19 76.09 Median 4.40 17.73 11.08 76.57 Standard Deviation 0.51 0.56 0.51 5.49 Confidence Interval 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.98 r(118) = 0.55, r(118) = 0.41, r(118) = 0.50, r(118) = 0.23, Correlation p<0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 p 0.011 2050 Forecast 5.31 18.48 11.90 79.60 Table 1: Contiguous United States Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. Contiguous US Changes to the monthly precipitation levels for the 48 contiguous states since 1895 did not result in weak or strong correlations. Precipitation levels for January, February, and July produced trend lines that sloped downward, with the remaining months showing trend lines sloping slightly upwards. Overall annual precipitation levels increased over time and produced a trend line that slopes upward, but with a correlation of r(118) = 0.23, p 0.011. The NCEI CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 33 calculated annual average temperatures to have increased at a rate of 0.36 centimeters per decade, or an approximate rise of 1.24 centimeters by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). This resulted in an overall average precipitation level in the year 2050 of 77.33 centimeters (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted the year 2050 precipitation level will be 79.60 centimeters, 2.27 centimeters greater than the NCEI rate calculation and 3.51 centimeters greater than the historical precipitation average. Northeastern United States Narrowing down the focus to the Northeastern region of the US provided a more focused look at weather trends affecting New York and filtered out some of the warmer and wetter sections of the US in order to increase accuracy of results. The same analysis was performed on Northeastern region as was conducted for the 48 contiguous states. A total of 480 data points provided an overview of four climatic indicators over the last 120 years (NCEI, n.d.b.). Temperature trends in the Northeast were once again all positive, except for several more instances of weak or strong correlations. February average minimum, average maximum, and average temperatures had positive, weak correlations of r(118) = 0.36, p<0.001; r(118) = 0.35, p<0.001; and r(118) = 0.36, p<0.001 respectively. June average minimum temperatures increased over time with a positive correlation of r(118) = 0.34, p<0.001. Both August average minimum and average temperature increases correlated over time with weak correlations of r(118) = 0.33, p<0.001 and r(118) = 0.31, p<0.001. November and December temperatures resulted in higher correlations over time, although none could be considered strong. All three of the temperature indicators for November resulted in weak correlations, r(118) = 0.36, p<0.001; r(118) = 0.32, p<0.001; and r(118) = 0.35, p<0.001 for average minimum, average maximum, and average temperatures. Two December temperature indicators resulted in weak correlations; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 34 both average minimum and average temperatures resulted in correlations of r(118) = 0.30, p 0.001, although the average maximum temperature for December resulted in a r(118) = 0.28, p 0.002 correlation, just under the weak correlation threshold. Overall annual averages for all four of the climate indicators for the Northeast resulted in weak or strong correlations (Table 2). The increases to annual average minimum and maximum temperature indicators since 1895 resulted in r(118) = 0.54, p<0.001 and r(118) = 0.43, p<0.001 correlations respectively, while the annual average temperature and annual precipitation indicators increased over time with correlations of r(118) = 0.50, p<0.001 and r(118) = 0.33, p<0.001 respectively. These results showed that the Northeastern US climate is becoming both warmer and wetter over time. This region has increased occurrences of strong or weak correlations between warmer temperatures and time compared to the contiguous United States and resulted in a 0.20 degrees Celsius per decade increase for all three annual temperature indicators, also higher than the contiguous US (NCEI, n.d.b). By the year 2050, an increase of 0.70 degrees Celsius can be expected for all three of the temperature indicators, resulting in an average annual minimum temperature of 2.58 degrees Celsius, an average annual maximum temperature of 14.45 degrees Celsius, and an annual average temperature of 8.32 degrees Celsius. These values were still lower than the overall Melillo et al. estimate of a one to twodegree Celsius increase in the US by 2050 (2014). The Microsoft Excel function FORECAST predicted that by the year 2050, the Northeast annual average minimum temperature will be 2.99 degrees Celsius, the annual average maximum temperature will be 14.23 degrees Celsius, and the annual average temperature will be 8.61 degrees Celsius. The Microsoft Excel FORECAST predictions were very comparable to the NCEI rate calculations (NCEI, n.d.b). CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 35 Annual Avg Annual Avg Annual Annual Avg Min Temp Max Temp Precip Level Temp (°C) (°C) (°C) (cm) Low 0.06 11.28 5.67 82.19 High 4.11 15.39 9.78 143.94 Average 1.88 13.35 7.62 108.01 Median 1.83 13.28 7.56 107.77 Standard Deviation 0.74 0.73 0.72 11.14 Confidence Interval 0.13 0.13 0.13 1.99 r(118) = 0.54, r(118) = 0.43, r(118) = 0.50, r(118) = 0.33, Correlation p<0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 2050 Forecast 2.99 14.23 8.61 118.11 Table 2: Northeast United States Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. Northeast US Monthly changes to precipitation levels in the Northeast US did not correlate either weakly or strongly with time. The trend for January, February, and March declined, while April, May, and June increased slightly. July and August trend lines were flat or nearly flat, while September, October, November, and December had slight positive trends. Not until the annual average was analyzed did results show any significant correlation, a weak correlation of r(118) = 0.33, p<0.001. NCEI calculated that precipitation had risen by 1.07 centimeters per decade, which would result in a 3.75 centimeter increase by the year 2050 and a 2050 annual precipitation level of 111.86 (NCEI, n.d.b). Using the Microsoft Excel FORECAST function resulted in a year 2050 predicted annual precipitation level of 118.11, much higher than the NCEI rate calculation (NCEI, n.d.b). New York State An assessment of New York further reduced the study scope and evaluated climate conditions closer to those that affect New York wine grape growing regions. A total of 480 data points provided an overview of four climatic indicators over the last 120 years (NCEI, n.d.b.). Average monthly temperature indicators for New York all showed positive trends, except for one, the September maximum temperature showed a slightly declining trend. February was the CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 36 month that showed the most correlation between time and temperature increases, all temperature indicators in this month resulted in weak correlations. The average minimum, average maximum, and average temperatures resulted in correlations of r(118) = 0.33, p 0.001; r(118) = 0.33, p<0.001; and r(118) = 0.32, p<0.001 respectively. November was the only other month that resulted in a monthly temperature indicator with either a weak or strong correlation, the November average temperature resulted in a r(118) = 0.30, p 0.001 correlation. The month of December showed the next closest correlation with temperature indicator correlations in the mid0.20s. Not until annual averages were analyzed that significant correlations between time and temperature were revealed, all three temperature indicators showed weak correlations. The annual New York minimum temperature showed warming over time with a correlation of r(118) = 0.45, p<0.001 (Table 3). The maximum average temperature for New York revealed a time/temperature increase correlation of r(118) = 0.37, p<0.001. The overall New York annual average temperature increased over the years since 1895 with a correlation of r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001. The NCEI calculated increases for the annual average minimum temperature and overall average temperature of 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade since the year 1895, which equated to a 0.39-degree Celsius increase for each by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). The NCEI calculated a lower trend rate for the annual average maximum temperature, 0.06 degrees Celsius, or a 0.21-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). As a result, in the year 2050 the annual average minimum temperature would increase to 1.86 degrees Celsius, the annual average maximum temperature would increase to 12.87 degrees Celsius, and the overall average temperature would increase to 7.45 degrees Celsius (NCEI, n.d.b). Using the Microsoft Excel function FORECAST, predictions were calculated for each of the climate division nine temperature indicators and results were slightly higher than the NCEI projections. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 37 Microsoft Excel FORECAST predicted that in the year 2050, the annual average minimum temperature will be 2.41 degrees Celsius, the annual average maximum temperature will be 13.45, and the annual average temperature will be 7.93 degrees Celsius. These values represented between 0.79 and 0.94-degree Celsius increases over the 1895 to 2014 averages. Annual Avg Annual Avg Annual Annual Avg Min Temp Max Temp Precip Level Temp (°C) (°C) (°C) (cm) Low -0.33 10.39 5.06 80.16 High 3.83 14.89 9.39 141.50 Average 1.47 12.66 7.06 103.54 Median 1.44 12.56 7.00 102.36 Standard Deviation 0.77 0.78 0.75 11.09 Confidence Interval 0.14 0.14 0.13 1.98 r(118) = 0.45, r(118) = 0.37, r(118) = 0.42, r(118) = 0.34, Correlation p<0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 2050 Forecast 2.41 13.45 7.93 114.03 Table 3: New York State Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York Precipitation levels showed some difference from the US and Northeast precipitation climate indicators, none of them exhibited weak or strong correlation of precipitation levels over time. Several months showed declines in precipitation levels over time, January, February, March, and July. The remaining months all showed upward precipitation trends over time, but none were of a significant enough correlation to consider them a weak relationship in this study. When annual average precipitation levels are evaluated, a weak correlation revealed precipitation levels to be increasing over time, with a correlation of r(118) = 0.34, p<0.001. The NCEI calculated an overall precipitation level increase of 1.09 centimeters per decade since the year 1895, representing 3.82-centimeter increase by the year 2050 and a 2050 precipitation level of 107.36 centimeters (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft Excel function FORECAST predicted the New York year 2050 precipitation level to be 114.03 centimeters, 6.67 centimeters greater than the CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 38 NCEI extrapolated growth rate and 10.49 centimeters greater than the historical average precipitation level (NCEI, n.d.b). New York Climate Division Four Evaluating the specific climate divisions that encompass the New York wine regions provided analysis of the direct climate measurements that affect New York viticulture. New York climate division four, the Coastal climate division, is located at the southeastern tip of New York and covers the entire land area of Long Island as well as the entire Long Island Wine Region (Figure 5) (NWSCPC, 2005; NYW, 2014). This climate division is unique in that it is essentially an island, completely surrounded by coastal waters (NWSCPC, 2005). Analyzing the temperature and precipitation levels in this region resulted in significant differences from the results for the contiguous US, Northeast US, and New York regions so far reported in this study, the majority of temperature indicators for each month changed over time and resulted in weak or strong correlations. January indicators showed correlation much like the other climate division results, average minimum, average maximum, and average temperatures all revealed trend line sloping upwards with less than weak correlations for temperatures increasing over time. The average precipitation indicator trend line sloped down, but with only a poor r(118) = -0.04, p 0.640 correlation. February temperature indicators are where climate division four started to show differences from other divisions, all three of the temperature indicators showed increases with strong upward trends and correlations bordering on strong. Average minimum temperature over time gave a correlation of r(118) = 0.49, p<0.001, average maximum temperature resulted in a correlation of r(118) = 0.44, p<0.001, and average temperature correlated at r(118) = 0.47, p<0.001. Precipitation showed a downward sloping trend line and although it was a less than CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 39 weak correlation, it resulted in the strongest of individual precipitation level increases over time with a correlation of r(118) = -0.23, p 0.011. March once again showed correlations for the three temperature indicators, although they were weak. Average minimum, average maximum, and average temperatures increased over time and gave correlations of r(118) = 0.39, p<0.001; r(118) = 0.35, p<0.001; and r(118) = 0.38, p<0.001 respectively. Changes in climate division four precipitation levels in January showed no significant correlation over time. April correlations for temperature increases actually increased even further than February, resulting in strong correlations for minimum and average temperature, r(118) = 0.55, p<0.001 and r(118) = 0.521, p<0.001 respectively. Average temperature increases showed a slightly less than strong correlation of r(118) = 0.46, p<0.001. The correlation of precipitation changes over time was inconclusive. May showed less of a correlation amongst the indicators, only increases to the average minimum temperature gave correlation, r(118) = 0.43, p<0.001. The trend lines for the other three indicators sloped upwards, but only average temperature came close to a weak correlation, with a r(118) = 0.29, p 0.001. June, July, and August return to strong correlations of temperature increasing over time. June average minimum temperature resulted in a strong correlation of r(118) = 0.59, p<0.001; July average minimum and average temperatures gave strong correlations; and all three of the temperature indicators for August exceeded the strong correlation threshold. Precipitation changes for these three months showed no significant correlation of change over time, although notably the precipitation levels for July and August resulted in downward sloping trend lines. The climate indicators in September showed weak correlations for minimum and average temperatures, while October showed no significant indicators at all. November continued the climate division four trend of temperature correlations over time, with all three providing just CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 40 less than strong correlations between r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001 for average maximum temperature and r(118) = 0.46, p<0.001 correlations for both average minimum and average temperatures over time. The three temperature indicators for December also increased over time and showed weak correlations, ranging from r(118) = 0.38, p<0.001 to r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001. After the evaluation of New York climate division four results for individual months in the years 1895 to 2014, the annual results were not surprising (Table 4) (Appendix 1). The three temperature climate indicators resulted in significantly upward sloping trend lines and strong correlations. The annual average minimum temperature increased over time with a strong r(118) = 0.75, p<0.001 correlation. The annual average maximum temperature increased over time with a strong correlation of r(118) = 0.66, p<0.001 and the annual average temperature increased over time with a strong correlation of r(118) = 0.72, p<0.001. The NCEI calculated an annual average minimum, average maximum, and overall average temperature increase of 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade since the year 1895 (NCEI, n.d.b). This rate of increase would result in an overall increase of 0.42 degrees Celsius by the year 2050, potentially raising the annual average minimum temperature to 6.37 degrees Celsius, the annual average maximum temperature to 15.86 degrees Celsius, and the annual average temperature to 11.12 degrees Celsius (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft Excel function FORECAST predicted a greater rise in each of these climate division four temperature values, predicting the year 2050 annual average minimum temperature to reach 7.77 degrees Celsius, annual average maximum temperature to reach 16.96 degrees Celsius, and the annual average temperature to reach 12.37 degrees Celsius. This was an increase of over 1.5 degrees Celsius per indicator and near the maximum values for each indicator. The NCEI calculated an overall precipitation level increase of 0.38 centimeters per decade since the year 1895, translating to a 1.33-centimeter increase in precipitation in the year CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 41 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). According to the NCEI rate of increase, the annual precipitation level would reach 115.35 centimeters (n.d.b). The Microsoft Excel function FORECAST predicted a higher value for precipitation than the NCEI value, predicting that the annual precipitation level in the year 2050 will be 117.74 centimeters. Annual Avg Annual Avg Annual Annual Avg Min Temp Max Temp Precip Level Temp (°C) (°C) (°C) (cm) Low 3.44 13.11 8.28 72.42 High 8.44 17.67 13.06 158.57 Average 5.95 15.44 10.70 114.02 Median 5.92 15.39 10.64 111.57 Standard Deviation 0.88 0.84 0.85 15.43 Confidence Interval 0.16 0.15 0.15 2.76 r(118) = 0.75, r(118) = 0.66, r(118) = 0.72, r(118) = 0.09, Correlation p<0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 p 0.340 2050 Forecast 7.77 16.96 12.37 117.74 Table 4: New York Climate Division Four Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York – CD4 In addition to monthly and annual climate indicator analysis, evaluations of the growing and dormant season were conducted for all four New York climate divisions. The growing season for grape vines is considered to be the months of April to October (seven months), while the dormant season is comprised of November through March (five months) (Jones et al., 2005). By analyzing these two periods as single entities, one can gain an understanding of climate changes during critical times of the vine life cycle (Jones et al., 2005). For the months of April through October in New York climate division four, the growing season, all three of the temperature indicator trend lines sloped upwards with strong correlations between warming and time (Table 5) (Appendix 2). The growing season average minimum temperature increased over time with an r(118) = 0.72, p<0.001 correlation, the average maximum temperature increased and correlated at r(118) = 0.57, p<0.001, and the average temperature increased with a correlation of r(118) = 0.67, p<0.001. The NCEI provided a growth rate of 0.17 degrees Celsius CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 42 per decade for the average minimum temperature during this time period, or an increase of 0.60 degrees Celsius by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). For the average maximum temperature during the growing season, the NCEI growth rate is 0.11 degrees Celsius, or a 0.39-degree Celsius increase by 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). The growing season average temperature for climate decision four climbed by 0.17 degrees Celsius per decade and will increase by 0.98 degrees Celsius by the year 2050. The NCEI calculations resulted in a predicted growing season average minimum temperature of 12.92 degrees Celsius, an average maximum temperature of 22.34 degrees Celsius, and an average temperature of 17.92 degrees Celsius in the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST calculations predicted the following for average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, and average temperature respectively; 13.50 degrees Celsius, 23.14 degrees Celsius, and 18.31 degrees Celsius. These FORECAST predictions are between 1.19 and 1.58 degrees Celsius greater than the historical average. Avg Min Avg Max Avg Temp Precip Level Temp (°C) Temp (°C) (°C) (cm) 9.89 20.06 14.94 40.84 14.17 24.44 19.28 115.85 11.92 21.95 16.94 66.10 11.89 21.94 16.94 63.89 0.80 0.75 0.75 13.01 0.14 0.13 0.13 2.33 r(118) = 0.72, r(118) = 0.57, r(118) = 0.67, r(118) = 0.14, Correlation p<0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 p 0.128 2050 Forecast 13.50 23.14 18.31 71.09 Table 5: New York Climate Division Four Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York – CD4Growing Season Low High Average Median Standard Deviation Confidence Interval Precipitation levels during the growing season showed an upward sloping trend line, but a low correlation of r(118) = 0.14, p 0.128. The NCEI calculated a 0.53-centimeter increase in precipitation per decade, which would result in a year 2050 precipitation level of 67.96 centimeters based on the historical average of 66.10. The Microsoft FORECAST function CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 43 predicted a 2050 precipitation level of 71.09, considerably greater than the historical average (4.99 centimeters more) or the NCEI calculation (3.13 centimeters more). For the dormant season months of November to March in New York climate division four, all three of the temperature indicators once again showed strong correlation for warming over time (Table 6) (Appendix 3). The NCEI calculated a 0.22-degree Celsius increase per decade for the dormant season average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, and average temperature, with strong correlations of r(117) = 0.57, p<0.001; r(117) = 0.52, p<0.001; and r(117) = 0.55, p<0.001 respectively (NCEI, n.d.b). This resulted in a 0.77 DegreeCelsius increase for each temperature indicator by the year 2050 and a 2050 average minimum temperature of -1.65 degrees Celsius, a 2050 average maximum temperature of 7.10 degrees Celsius, and a 2050 average temperature of 2.73 degrees Celsius. The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted an average minimum temperature of -0.29 degrees Celsius, a 2050 average maximum temperature of 8.27 degrees Celsius, and a 2050 average temperature of 3.99 degrees Celsius. The FORECAST predictions represent 1.94, 2.03, and 2.13-degree Celsius increases over historical temperature indicator averages. Precipitation levels for climate division four revealed a downward sloping trend line for the years 1896-2014. The starting year for dormant season evaluation is 1896 because the months cross into the next year, so statistical calculations for dormant season climate indicators were calculated using 119 data points instead of the 120 used for the growing season. The NCEI calculated rate of decrease for precipitation was 0.15 centimeters per decade, or a decrease of 0.53 centimeters by the year 2050, and resulted in a year 2050 precipitation level of 40.50 centimeters (NCEI, n.d.b). Using the Microsoft FORECAST function provided a prediction of 45.97 centimeters for the year 2050. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 44 Avg Min Avg Max Avg Temp Precip Level Temp (°C) Temp (°C) (°C) (cm) -6.33 3.00 -1.61 27.56 1.22 10.78 6.00 70.51 -2.42 6.33 1.96 47.89 -2.28 6.28 2.06 47.09 1.35 1.37 1.34 9.51 0.24 0.25 0.24 1.71 r(117) = 0.57, r(117) = 0.52, r(117) = 0.55, r(117) = -0.07, Correlation p<0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 p 0.428 2050 Forecast -0.29 8.27 3.99 45.97 Table 6: New York Climate Division Four Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 119 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York – CD4Dormant Season Low High Average Median Standard Deviation Confidence Interval Overall, climate division four provided interesting results. The majority of monthly temperature indicators and all of the annual temperature showed weak to strong correlations for temperatures increasing between the years 1895 to 2014. When temperature indicators were grouped and averaged into the growing and dormant season for grape vines, all showed increases in temperature over time with strong statistical correlations. By the year 2050, Microsoft Excel predicted there will be between a one and two-degree Celsius increase for each temperature indicator. This falls in line with the one to two-degree Celsius increase for the US that Melillo et al. (2014) predicted. New York Climate Division Five New York climate division five, the Hudson Valley, is located on either side of the Hudson River at the south east border of New York, just above New York City, and encompasses the entire Hudson River Wine Region (Figure 5) (NWSCPC, 2005; NYW, 2014). New York climate division five did not show as strong correlations between temperature increase and time as climate division four, but did present correlations of interest. As with the other climate regions evaluated so far, evaluation of temperature and precipitation in climate division five resulted in upward sloping trend lines for all temperature indicators that indicated CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 45 temperature was increasing over time for the years 1895 to 2014. Precipitation trend lines also showed increases in precipitation over time for most months, except February where precipitation showed a noticeable decrease over time. Individually, several months gave weak correlations for temperature increasing over time. The month of February saw weak correlations for all three temperature indicators increasing over time, average minimum temperature gave a correlation of r(118) = 0.36, p<0.001, average maximum temperature correlated at r(118) = 0.39, p<0.001, and the average temperature resulted in a correlation of r(118) = 0.38, p<0.001. April was the next month that showed weak correlation, with the average temperature increase producing a correlation of r(118) = 0.30, p 0.001. Of note, the average minimum and maximum temperature indicators resulted in correlations of r(118) = 0.28, p 0.002, just under the threshold to be considered a weak correlation. The average minimum temperature in June increased over time with a correlation of r(118) = 0.36, p<0.001, but the other temperature indicators were not statistically strong enough to be significant. August is the next month that resulted in statistical significance for an increasing temperature over time, with all three of the temperature indicators giving weak correlations. The average minimum temperature increased over time with a weak correlation of r(118) = 0.38, p<0.001, the average maximum temperature increased with a weak correlation of r(118) = 0.32, p<0.001, and the average temperature increased over time with a weak correlation of r(118) = 0.37, p<0.001. September and October temperature increases showed no weak or strong correlations over time. Temperature increase over time showed weak correlation for the month of November, average minimum temperatures correlated at r(118) = 0.38, p<0.001, average maximum temperatures showed a correlation of r(118) = 0.32, p<0.001, and overall average temperature resulted in a r(118) = 0.36, p<0.001 correlation. Temperature indicators for December showed a weak correlation for an increasing average minimum CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 46 temperature over time (r(118) = 0.30, p<0.001), while the average maximum and average temperature were slightly below the minimum correlation considered as weak, r(118) = 0.27, p 0.003 and r(118) = 0.29, p 0.001 respectively. The overall annual temperature averages for climate division five all showed upward sloping trend lines with weak to strong correlations (Table 7) (Appendix 4). Overall, the average minimum temperature for climate division five increased since 1895 with a strong correlation of r(118) = 0.55, p<0.001. The average maximum temperature increased since 1895 with a correlation that bordered on strong, r(118) = 0.49, p<0.001. The overall average temperature for climate division five also increased since 1895, with a strong correlation of r(118) = 0.54, p<0.001. The NCEI calculated the climate division five rate of increase for all the three temperature indicators to have been 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade (n.d.b). This calculated to a 0.39-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050, potentially raising the average minimum temperature to 3.16 degrees Celsius, the average maximum temperature to 14.69 degrees Celsius, and the overall average temperature up to 8.93 degrees Celsius. Annual Avg Annual Avg Annual Annual Avg Min Temp Max Temp Precip Level Temp (°C) (°C) (°C) (cm) Low 0.83 12.06 6.44 72.19 High 5.39 16.56 10.94 159.89 Average 2.77 14.30 8.54 107.79 Median 2.67 14.22 8.44 106.63 Standard Deviation 0.81 0.79 0.77 15.11 Confidence Interval 0.14 0.14 0.14 2.70 r(118) = 0.55, r(118) = 0.49, r(118) = 0.54, r(118) = 0.27, Correlation p<0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 p 0.003 2050 Forecast 3.98 15.36 9.68 118.94 Table 7: New York Climate Division Five Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York – CD5 The Microsoft Excel function FORECAST predicted a greater rise in each of these climate division five temperature values, predicting the year 2050 annual average minimum CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 47 temperature to reach 3.89 degrees Celsius, annual average maximum temperature to reach 15.36 degrees Celsius, and the annual average temperature to reach 9.68 degrees Celsius. This was an increase of over 1.0 degree Celsius per indicator, a slightly lower increase than the 1.5-degree Celsius increase seen in climate division 4. The annual precipitation level for climate division five also resulted in an upward sloping trend line, with a correlation just under the threshold for a weak correlation, r(118) = 0.27, p 0.003. For climate division five, the NCEI calculated an overall annual precipitation level increase of 1.17 centimeters per decade since the year 1895, translating to a 4.09-centimeter increase in precipitation by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). According to the NCEI rate of increase, the annual precipitation level would reach 111.88 centimeters in the year 2050 (n.d.b). The Microsoft Excel function FORECAST predicted a higher value for precipitation, predicting that the annual average precipitation level in the year 2050 will be 118.94 centimeters. For the months of April through October in New York climate division five, the growing season, all three of the temperature indicator trend lines sloped upwards with weak correlations between warming and time (Table 8) (Appendix 5). When evaluated over the years 1895 to 2014, the average minimum temperature resulted in a 0.11-degree Celsius increase per decade, as calculated by NCEI (n.d.b), with a correlation of r(118) = 0.45, p<0.001, just under the strong correlation threshold. This resulted in a 0.39-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 or a 9.73 degrees Celsius in 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted the average growing season minimum temperature to be 10.22 in the year 2050, 0.88 degrees greater than the historical growing season average. The growing season average maximum and average temperatures warmed since 1895 at a rate of 0.06 degrees Celsius as calculated by NCEI (n.d.b), with correlations of r(118) = 0.33, p<0.001 and r(118) = 0.43, p<0.001 respectively. This CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 48 represented a 0.21-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 for both, or 22.07 and 15.81 degrees Celsius respectively in the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted these two temperature indicators to be 22.54 and 16.37 degrees Celsius respectively in the year 2050, 0.86 and 0.77-degree Celsius increases respectively. The growing season precipitation levels since 1895 also showed increases, with a correlation of r(118) = 0.27, p 0.002, just under the threshold for a weak correlation. NCEI calculated the rate of increase for precipitation to be 0.94 centimeters per decade, or a 3.29-centimeter increase by the year 2050 (n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted the year 2050 precipitation level to be 76.64 centimeters, nine centimeters greater than the historical average and 5.71 centimeters greater than the NCEI rate prediction (NCEI, n.d.b). Avg Min Avg Max Precip Level Avg Temp (°C) Temp (°C) Temp (°C) (cm) 7.67 19.89 13.78 35.15 11.33 23.78 17.39 113.92 9.34 21.86 15.60 67.64 9.39 21.92 15.61 66.10 0.70 0.74 0.66 12.07 0.13 0.13 0.12 2.16 r(118) = 0.45, r(118) = 0.34, r(118) = 0.43, r(118) = 0.27, Correlation p<0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 p 0.002 2050 Forecast 10.22 22.54 16.37 76.64 Table 8: New York Climate Division Five Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York – CD5Growing Season Low High Average Median Standard Deviation Confidence Interval The dormant season months of November to March showed similar results. Average minimum, average maximum, and average temperatures all increased over time since 1895 by 0.17 degrees Celsius per decade, as calculated by NCEI, and showed correlations of r(117) = 0.40, p<0.001; r(117) = 0.41, p<0.001; and r(117) = 0.42, p<0.001 respectively (Table 9) (Appendix 6) (NCEI, n.d.b). According to the NCEI growth rate, the temperature indicators will gain 0.60 degrees Celsius and the average minimum, average maximum, and average CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 49 temperatures values will be -5.83, 4.33, and -0.75 degrees Celsius in the year 2050 respectively (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted these three temperature indicators to be -4.80, 5.28, and 0.24 degrees Celsius in the year 2050, or an approximate one-degree greater increase over the NCEI prediction and 1.63, 1.55, and 1.59-degree increase over historical averages. Precipitation levels for the climate division five dormant season showed an increase since 1895 as well, with an NCEI growth rate of 0.18 centimeters per decade and a low r(117) = 0.09, p 0.312 correlation (NCEI, n.d.b). NCEI predicted a 0.63-centimeter increase and Microsoft FORECAST predicted a 1.87-centimeter increase by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). Avg Min Avg Max Precip Level Avg Temp (°C) Temp (°C) Temp (°C) (cm) -10.56 0.33 -4.72 27.31 -2.17 8.39 3.11 59.16 -6.43 3.73 -1.35 40.21 -6.39 3.67 -1.33 39.95 1.46 1.36 1.38 7.28 0.26 0.24 0.25 1.31 r(117) = 0.40, r(117) = 0.41, r(117) = 0.42, r(117) = 0.09, Correlation p<0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 p 0.312 2050 Forecast -4.80 5.28 0.24 42.08 Table 9: New York Climate Division Five Annual Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 119 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York – CD5Dormant Season Low High Average Median Standard Deviation Confidence Interval Overall, climate division five resulted in a significant number of climate indicators that produced weak or strong correlations over time. The majority of monthly temperature indicators and all of the annual temperature showed weak to strong correlations for temperatures that have increased between the years 1895 to 2014. Temperature indicators when grouped and averaged into grape vine growing and dormant seasons, all showed increases in temperature over time with weak correlations. By the year 2050, Microsoft Excel predicted there will be between a 0.77 and 1.5-degree Celsius increase for each temperature indicator, with the dormant season producing greater increases in temperature. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 50 New York Climate Division Nine New York climate division nine, the Great Lakes, is located on the western border of New York and extends in a thin strip along the New York border from Alexandria Bay in the north, down below Lake Ontario, over to Niagara Falls, and then down to the Pennsylvania border under Lake Erie (Figure 5) (NWSCPC, 2005; NYW, 2014). This climate division encompasses both the Niagara Escarpment and Lake Erie Wine Regions, which are located at the far western edge of New York (Figure 1) (NWSCPC, 2005; NYW, 2014). An evaluation of the 480 data points provided an overview of four climatic indicators over the last 120 years in this climate division (NCEI, n.d.b.). Results showed no strong correlation between any of the climate indicator changes over time. Temperature trend lines for the month of January were essentially flat, with very slight upward inclines. The February average minimum and overall average temperatures showed weak correlations for increases since 1895, while the average maximum fell just short of a weak correlation for its increase over time at r(118) = 0.29, p 0.002. March, April, and May temperature indicators all resulted in upward sloping trend lines, but none reached the threshold to be considered a weak correlation. The month of June temperature indicators all resulted in positive sloping trend lines, but only one resulted in a weak correlation, the average minimum temperature gave a correlation of r(118) = 0.33, p<0.001. The July average maximum temperature resulted in a downward sloping trend line, the first of this study for any temperature indicator, but its correlation over time only reached r(118) = -0.07, p 0.450. The other temperature indicators in July had upward sloping trend lines, but did not reach the weak correlation threshold. August saw all temperature trend lines return to sloping upwards, while the average minimum indicator was the only one to reach a weak correlation, with a r(118) = 0.30, p 0.001. September revealed the second downward sloping trend line in this study, for CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 51 the average maximum temperature, reaching essentially the same correlation level as in June, r(118) = 0.33, p 0.469. The other two temperature indicators for September showed positive sloping trend lines, but neither reached the weak correlation minimum. October trend lines were also upward sloping, but with low correlations with time. All three November temperature indicators were obviously upward sloping, but the increases over time just missed the weak correlation threshold, with average minimum and overall average temperatures correlating at r(118) = 0.28, p 0.008 and r(118) = 0.28, p 0.002 and the average maximum temperature correlated at r(118) = 0.27, p 0.003. December fared much the same, with average minimum and overall average temperatures that correlated at r(118) = 0.25, p 0.006 and r(118) = 0.25, p 0.007, while the average maximum temperature correlated at r(118) = 0.24, p 0.010. Monthly precipitation levels resulted in downward sloping trend lines for the months of January, February, and March with no significant correlations with time. Precipitation levels for the months of April through August revealed upward sloping trend lines, but no significant correlations with time. September came close to reaching the weak correlation threshold, with precipitation levels increasing since 1895 with a correlation of r(118) = 0.27, p 0.002. October, November, and December precipitation trend lines all sloped upwards, but they also did not have sufficient correlations with time to be considered weak correlations. Evaluation of climate division nine annual temperature and precipitation measurements since 1895 resulted in increases for all indicators over time, with all correlations exceeding the threshold to be considered a weak correlation (Table 10) (Appendix 7). The annual average minimum temperature increased since 1895, with a statistical correlation of r(118) = 0.48, p<0.001, just beneath the strong correlation threshold. The annual average maximum temperature indicator also produced an upward sloping trend line and increased since 1895, with CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 52 a correlation of r(118) = 0.31, p 0.001. The annual average temperature showed an increase over time as well, with a correlation of r(118) = 0.41, p<0.001. The NCEI calculated the climate division nine rate of increase for annual average minimum and average temperatures to be 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade (n.d.b). The annual average minimum and average temperatures increase would result in a 0.39-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050, potentially raising the average minimum temperature to 2.92 degrees Celsius and the overall average temperature up to 8.13 degrees Celsius. NCEI calculated the annual average maximum temperature increase to be 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade (n.d.b). This calculates to a 0.21-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050, potentially raising the average maximum temperature to 13.16 degrees Celsius. Annual Avg Annual Avg Annual Annual Avg Min Temp Max Temp Precip Level Temp (°C) (°C) (°C) (cm) Low 0.50 10.61 5.56 70.79 High 4.94 15.28 10.11 120.78 Average 2.53 12.95 7.74 96.24 Median 2.50 12.86 7.67 95.14 Standard Deviation 0.81 0.78 0.77 10.59 Confidence Interval 0.14 0.14 0.14 1.90 r(118) = 0.48, r(118) = 0.31, r(118) = 0.41, r(118) = 0.42, Correlation p<0.001 p 0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 2050 Forecast 3.60 13.62 8.61 108.31 Table 10: New York Climate Division Nine Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York – CD9 Once again, the Microsoft Excel FORECAST function predicted a greater rise in each of these climate division nine temperature values, predicting the year 2050 annual average minimum temperature to reach 3.60 degrees Celsius, annual average maximum temperature to reach 13.62 degrees Celsius, and the annual average temperature to reach 8.61 degrees Celsius. This represented an increase of over 1.07 degrees Celsius for the annual average minimum temperature, an increase of 0.67 degrees Celsius for the annual average maximum temperature, and an increase of 0.87 degrees Celsius for the annual average temperature. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 53 Annual precipitation levels for this climate division reached the highest correlation level of all climate region precipitation levels reported so far, with an upward sloping trend line and a weak correlation of r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001. The NCEI calculated a 1.27-centimeter per decade increase since the year 1895 for climate division nine, equating to a 4.45-centimeter increase in precipitation by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). This would result in a climate division nine annual precipitation level of 100.69 centimeters in the year 2050 (n.d.b). The Microsoft Excel FORECAST function predicted the precipitation level for climate division nine to be 108.31 centimeters in the year 2050. Avg Min Avg Max Avg Temp Precip Level Temp (°C) Temp (°C) (°C) (cm) 7.22 18.44 13.00 40.23 10.78 22.61 16.44 80.09 9.06 20.59 14.83 59.23 9.08 20.67 14.83 59.13 0.73 0.79 0.72 9.39 0.13 0.14 0.13 1.68 r(118) = 0.42, r(118) = 0.11, r(118) = 0.27, r(118) = 0.38, Correlation p<0.001 p 0.220 p 0.002 p<0.001 2050 Forecast 9.89 20.84 15.37 68.96 Table 11: New York Climate Division Nine Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York – CD9Growing Season Low High Average Median Standard Deviation Confidence Interval Analysis of the climate division nine growing season resulted in temperatures increasing over time as well, with average minimum temperature the only temperature indicator to result in a weak or strong correlation, with a r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001 weak correlation (Table 11) (Appendix 8). The average maximum temperature actually resulted in a flat trend line with a growth rate per decade of 0.00 degrees Celsius as calculated by NCEI (n.d.b). The average temperature for the climate division nine growing season resulted in a low 0.06-degree Celsius growth rate per decade and a correlation slightly lower than the weak correlation threshold, r(118) = 0.27, p 0.002 (CEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted similar low CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 54 growth rates, with an average minimum temperature of 9.89 degrees Celsius, average maximum temperature of 20.84 degrees Celsius, and an average temperature of 15.37 degrees Celsius in the year 2050. The growing season precipitation level did increase over time since 1895, with a correlation of r(118) = 0.38, p<0.001 and a substantial NCEI calculated growth rate of 1.02 centimeters per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). This would result in a year 2050 precipitation level of 62.80 centimeters, a 3.06-centimeter increase over the historical average. The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted a 68.96-centimeter precipitation level in the year 2050, a 9.73centimeter increase over the historical average. Avg Min Avg Max Avg Temp Precip Level Temp (°C) Temp (°C) (°C) (cm) -10.56 -0.89 -5.44 24.05 -2.11 7.00 2.44 51.94 -6.59 2.25 -2.17 37.06 -6.56 2.22 -2.22 36.88 1.45 1.37 1.39 5.60 0.26 0.25 0.25 1.01 r(117) = 0.33, r(117) = 0.32, r(117) = 0.33, r(117) = 0.16, Correlation p<0.001 p<0.001 p<0.001 p 0.092 2050 Forecast -5.28 3.46 -0.90 39.46 Table 12: New York Climate Division Nine Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 119 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York – CD9Dormant Season Low High Average Median Standard Deviation Confidence Interval Dormant season analysis in climate division nine resulted in all three temperature indicators increasing over time, with 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade growth rates as calculated by NCEI and showing weak correlations (Table 12) (Appendix 9) (NCEI, n.d.b). A 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade growth rate resulted in a 0.39-degree Celsius increase over the historical average for each temperature indicator by the year 2050, or an average minimum temperature of -6.20 degrees Celsius, an average maximum temperature of 2.64 degrees Celsius, and an average temperature of -1.78 degrees Celsius (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST predicted an average minimum temperature of -5.28 degrees Celsius, an average maximum temperature of CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 55 3.46 degrees Celsius, and an average temperature of -0.90 degrees Celsius. These represented 1.31, 1.21, and 2.40-degree Celsius increases over the dormant season historical averages. Precipitation analysis did not reveal a high precipitation increase over time as the growing season did, it did have an upward sloping trend line, but it increased by 0.20 centimeters per decade as calculated by the NCEI, or 0.7 centimeters by the year 2050 (n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted a year 2050 precipitation level of 39.46 centimeters, a 2.4-centimeter increase over the historical average and a 1.7-centimeter increase over the NCEI growth rate prediction (NCEI, n.d.b). Overall, climate division nine resulted in all annual climate indicators producing significant correlations for their increases over time. The annual temperature indicators resulted in 0.67 to 1.08 degrees Celsius predicted increases over historical values by the year 2050. The annual precipitation levels resulted in the highest correlation of all climate divisions, although weak, and resulted in predicted levels 12.07 centimeters greater than historical levels. Twothirds of climate division nine temperature indicators, when grouped and averaged into growing and dormant seasons, showed increases in temperature over time with weak correlations. By the year 2050, Microsoft Excel predicted there will be between 1.21 and 2.40-degree Celsius increase for each temperature indicator in the dormant season. For the growing season, Microsoft FORECAST predicted a nearly ten-centimeter increase in precipitation by the year 2050. New York Climate Division Ten New York climate division ten, the Central Lakes, is located in the center of the western half of New York, encompasses all of the New York Finger Lakes and subsequently the entire Finger Lakes Wine Region (Figure 1 and Figure 5) (NWSCPC, 2005; NYW, 2014). This CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 56 climate division is unique among the New York climate divisions evaluated in this study in that it contains a large number of wineries, 85% of New York wine is created in the Finger Lakes Wine Region (Hira & Gabreldar, 2013). Climate division ten was also evaluated using four climatic indicators over a time period of 120 years, providing 480 data points in all for a climatic overview of this region (NCEI, n.d.b.). The monthly values for each of the three temperature indicators, average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, and average temperature did not show any significant correlation over time. January temperature indicators resulted in nearly flat trend lines and correlations just above zero. February temperature values did increase over time, with upward sloping trend lines and correlations that fell just below the weak correlation threshold, r(118) = 0.28, p 0.002 for average minimum temperature, r(118) = 0.25, p 0.006 for average maximum temperature, and r(118) = 0.27, p 0.003 for average temperature. March, April, and May all showed increases for the three temperature values over time, but correlations were not high enough to be considered a weak correlation. June temperature values showed a deviation from the earlier months, average minimum and average temperatures increased over time with low correlations, but the average maximum temperature produced a flat trend line and a correlation of r(118) = 0.00, p 0.990 showing no real change in value over time. July temperature values showed two differences from earlier months, the average maximum and average temperatures showed a significant downward sloping trend line revealing that these values decreased over time since 1895. Their correlations were still not enough to be considered weak or strong. The trend line for the July average minimum temperature was essentially flat, with a low correlation of r(118) = 0.03, p 0.736. August average minimum and average temperatures also showed nearly flat trend lines with low correlations, r(118) = 0.16, p 0.089 and r(118) = 0.08, p 0.414 respectively, while the August CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 57 average maximum temperature had a slightly downward sloping trend line with a low r(118) = 0.01, p 0.941 correlation. September temperature trend lines did not result in much change either; the average minimum temperature trend line was essentially flat with a low r(118) = 0.05, p 0.571 correlation and the average maximum temperature and average temperature indicators show downward sloping trend lines with low correlations, r(118) = -0.14, p 0.125 and r(118) = 0.06, p 0.508 respectively. October temperature indicators showed essentially the same results as September, except the average temperature returned to a slightly increase over time. All of November and December temperatures increased over time, produced noticeably upward sloping trend lines, with correlations around 0.20. Annual Avg Annual Avg Annual Annual Avg Min Temp Max Temp Precip Level Temp (°C) (°C) (°C) (cm) Low 0.67 11.00 5.89 69.27 High 4.72 15.39 10.06 118.39 Average 2.46 13.19 7.83 89.99 Median 2.44 13.11 7.78 90.25 Standard Deviation 0.78 0.78 0.75 11.16 Confidence Interval 0.14 0.14 0.13 2.00 r(118) = 0.32, r(118) = 0.20, r(118) = 0.27, r(118) = 0.37, Correlation p<0.001 p 0.031 p 0.003 p<0.001 2050 Forecast 3.15 13.61 8.38 101.21 Table 13: New York Climate Division Ten Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York – CD10 Monthly precipitation levels for climate division ten revealed no weak or strong correlation when evaluated over time. January and February precipitation levels decreased over time from 1895, with low correlations of r(118) = -0.02, p 0.853 and r(118) = -0.03, p 0.741 respectively. March precipitation levels were essentially unchanged over time, with a correlation of r(118) = 0.01, p 0.895. Not until the month of August did precipitation levels increase substantially enough to produce a correlation close to what could be considered weak, with a r(118) = 0.26, p 0.105. October, November, and December all produced precipitation levels that CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 58 increased over time, showing upward sloping trend lines, but produced low correlations that hovered around 0.20. Evaluating annual temperature indicators for climate division ten resulted in all upward sloping trend lines and produced the first weak correlation. The annual average minimum temperature increased by 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade, according to the NCEI and produced a weak correlation of r(118) = 0.32, p<0.001 (Table 13) (Appendix 10) (NCEI, n.d.b). This rate of increase resulted in a 0.21-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 or a 2050 average minimum temperature level of 2.67 degrees Celsius (NCEI, n.d.b). Annual average maximum temperature and annual average temperature produced correlations of r(118) = 0.20, p 0.031 and r(118) = 0.27, p 0.003 respectively and increased by 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). These rates of increase also result in 0.21-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 providing a calculated annual average maximum temperature in the year 2050 of 2.78 degrees Celsius and an annual average temperature of 8.04 degrees Celsius. Using the Microsoft FORECAST function provided a year 2050 prediction of 3.15 degrees Celsius for the annual average minimum temperature, 13.61 degrees Celsius for the annual average maximum temperature, and 8.38 degrees for the annual average temperature. These represented 0.69, 0.42, and 0.55-degree Celsius increases over the historical average for the three temperature indicators respectively. Annual precipitation levels increased over time, resulting in a significantly upward sloping trend line, a r(118) = 0.37, p<0.001 correlation, and a NCEI calculated 1.17–centimeter increase per decade. This rate of increase resulted in a 4.10-centimeter increase in precipitation by the year 2050 or a 2050 precipitation level of 94.10 centimeters. The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted the year 2050 precipitation level will be 102.21 centimeters, 11.22 centimeters greater CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 59 than the historical average and an 8.11 centimeter increase over the NCEI calculated rate of increase. Avg Min Avg Max Avg Temp Precip Level Temp (°C) Temp (°C) (°C) (cm) 7.11 18.67 13.11 40.03 10.50 22.78 16.50 82.02 8.86 20.82 14.84 58.79 8.89 20.78 14.81 58.45 0.71 0.82 0.72 9.91 0.13 0.15 0.13 1.77 r(118) = 0.18, r(118) = 0.00, r(118) = 0.09, r(118) = 0.30, Correlation p 0.044 p 0.985 p 0.347 p<0.001 2050 Forecast 9.22 20.82 15.01 67.05 Table 14: New York Climate Division Ten Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York – CD10Growing Season Low High Average Median Standard Deviation Confidence Interval Analysis of the climate division ten growing season resulted in no significant correlation for the three temperature indicators. The annual average minimum temperature showed an upward sloping trend line with a NCEI calculated rate of increase of 0.06 degrees Celsius, or a temperature of 9.01 degrees Celsius by the year 2050 (Table 14) (Appendix 11) (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted a year 2050 average minimum temperature of 9.22, a slight increase over the NCEI prediction. The annual average maximum temperature and the annual average temperatures resulted in NCEI trend rates of 0.00, showing no increase over time and low correlations, r(118) = 0.00, p 0.985 and r(118) = 0.09, p 0.347 respectively. Microsoft FORECAST predicted no difference in the average maximum temperature over the historical value, a first in this study, and predicted the average temperature to be 15.01 degrees Celsius in the year 2050, a low 0.17-degree Celsius increase over the historical average. The growing season precipitation level did increase over time, producing an upward sloping tend line, a NCEI trend rate of 0.86-centimeters per decade, and a weak correlation of r(118) = 0.30, p<0.001 (NCEI, n.d.b). This trend rate would result in a year 2050 precipitation level of 61.80 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 60 centimeters, a 3.01 increase over the historical average. Microsoft FORECAST predicted the year 2050 precipitation level will be 67.05, an 8.26-centimeter increase over the historical average. Avg Min Avg Max Avg Temp Precip Level Temp (°C) Temp (°C) (°C) (cm) -10.33 -0.56 -5.11 20.52 -2.17 7.33 2.56 45.44 -6.48 2.51 -1.98 31.23 -6.50 2.56 -2.00 30.81 1.45 1.36 1.37 5.32 0.26 0.24 0.25 0.96 r(117) = 0.27, r(117) = 0.26, r(117) = 0.27, r(117) = 0.20, Correlation p 0.003 p 0.004 p 0.003 p 0.027 2050 Forecast -5.42 3.49 -0.96 34.20 Table 15: New York Climate Division Ten Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 119 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05. New York – CD10Dormant Season Low High Average Median Standard Deviation Confidence Interval The dormant season for climate division ten provided no weak or strong correlations for any of the temperature indicators increasing over time. All three temperatures did increase over time though, with noticeable upward sloping trend lines and NCEI calculated trend rates of 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade (Table 15) (Appendix 12) (NCEI, n.d.b). These trend rates will result in temperature increases of 0.39 degrees Celsius by the year 2050, or a year 2050 average minimum temperature of -6.09 degrees Celsius, a year 2050 average maximum temperature of 2.90 degrees Celsius, and a year 2050 average temperature of -1.59 degrees Celsius (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted a year 2050 value of -5.42 degrees Celsius for the average minimum temperature, 3.49 degrees Celsius for the average maximum temperature, and -0.96 degrees Celsius for the average temperature, increases of 1.06, 0.98, and 1.02 degrees Celsius over the historical averages. The climate division ten dormant season precipitation levels also increased over time, producing an upward sloping trend line, an NCEI trend rate of 0.28centimeters per decade, and a low correlation of r(117) = 0.20, p 0.027. The NCEI trend rate CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 61 would result in a year 2050 precipitation level of 32.21 centimeters, a 0.98-centimeter increase (n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted a 34.20-centimeter precipitation level for the year 2050, a 2.97-centimeter increase over the historical level, and a 1.99-centimeter difference from the NCEI prediction. Overall, climate division ten resulted in no significant statistical correlations for any of the monthly climate indicators. Only two annual indicators resulted in weak correlations, annual average minimum temperature and annual precipitation levels. Annual average minimum temperatures showed a low 0.06-degree Celsius per decade trend rate, but the annual precipitation level showed a significant 1.17-centimeter per decade trend rate. Growing season climate indicators did not produce any significant correlations except for precipitation, which produced a weak r(118) = 0.30, p<0.001 correlation and a 0.86-centimeter per decade trend rate. Temperature increases over time during the dormant season just missed the weak correlation threshold, with 0.11-degree Celsius per decade trend rates. Precipitation levels in the climate division ten dormant season did not produce a significant correlation for changing precipitation levels over time. Maps have been provided in Appendices 13, 14, and 15 to portray whether each of the annual, growing season, and dormant season climate indicators had increased since 1895 with statistical significance, correlations of 0.30 or greater. Each map collectively displays the status of all four New York climate divisions evaluated in this study for each climate indicator. These maps provide a visual representation of how each climate division relates to each other and with the geography of New York. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 62 V. Discussion Conclusions During the course of this study, several statistically relevant findings have shown New York temperature or precipitation levels increasing over time. These findings would be relevant to the future of the New York wine industry if the forecasted changes to temperature and precipitation exceeded climate requirements of New York grape varieties useful to the wine industry. The first step in related analysis is to identify these climate requirements for comparison to study results. As mentioned earlier, Fraga et al. (2014) had identified that mean surface air temperatures between twelve and 22 degrees Celsius are optimal during the grape vine growing season and temperatures over 35 degrees Celsius can damage grapevine leaves and grapes (Fraga et al., 2014). Fraga et al. also identified that higher precipitation levels tend to result in lower wine grape production, while slight water stress can be beneficial to production (2014). The New York Vineyard Evaluation System (NYVSES) identified several climate factors that affect the growth of wine suitable grape varieties, such as the minimum winter temperature (n.d.). Cold temperatures freeze and damage vine tissues, temperatures above 17.78 degrees Celsius have very low risk to damage tissues, most of the grapes grown in northern regions can withstand temperatures above -20.56 degrees Celsius, and only the hardiest varieties can withstand temperature down to –26.11 degrees Celsius, this includes most American varieties, although these American varieties do not produce wine of the same high quality as other European hybrids (NYVSES, n.d.). Vine tissues freeze at -2.22 degrees Celsius, so the length of time between the last -2.22 degree Celsius day to the first -2.22 degree Celsius day is considered the optimal growing season (NYVSES, n.d.b). A minimum of 160 days is considered the margin of acceptability, while greater than 170 days is considered satisfactory CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 63 (NYVSES, n.d.). This study was limited to analysis of monthly, annual, and growing season temperature and precipitation levels. Therefore, climate requirements for wine quality grapes that require daily weather observations, such as those set by the NYVSES will not be considered in this study, although they are very important to the evaluation of vineyard climates outside of this study (NYVSES, n.d.). To address the first research question, this study determined the following to be minimum climate requirements for New York viticulture: a minimum temperature greater than -20.56 degrees Celsius, maximum temperature less than 35 degrees Celsius, and growing season mean surface air temperatures between twelve and 22 degrees Celsius (Fraga et al., 2014; NYVSES, n.d.). The lowest minimum temperature found during this study of climate data was in climate division five and nine, both having the same lowest average minimum temperature of -10.56 degrees Celsius, so all climate divisions met the minimum temperature requirement. All climate division growing seasons also were found to have had growing season mean surface air temperatures between twelve and 22 degrees Celsius. The highest average maximum temperature found during this research was 24.44 degrees Celsius within climate division four; so all climate divisions have met the maximum temperature standard. In answer to the second research question of this study, the results of this study show the overall New York climate, as well as sub climates within New York, climate divisions four, five, nine, and ten, which encompass the New York wine regions, to have changed over time with statistical relevance. Use of Microsoft Excel to analyze the annual average minimum, annual average maximum, overall annual average temperature and precipitation levels provided linear trend lines and rates, which revealed whether these climatic indicators were rising or falling over time. When these values were further assessed in Microsoft Excel using the statistical CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 64 correlation between the climate changes and the passing of time, the picture of whether New York climates are changing over time became clear and statistically supported. The New York State annual temperature and precipitation levels have all increased since 1895 and resulted in statistically significant correlations. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) calculated the annual minimum and annual average temperatures to have increased since 1895 at a rate of 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade and the average maximum temperature to have increased by 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade (n.d.b). Precipitation in New York had increased by a rate of 1.09-centimeters per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). Use of the Microsoft FORECAST function provided a prediction that New York temperatures will continue to increase by 0.94, 0.79, and 0.87 degrees Celsius by the year 2050 and New York precipitation will increase by 10.49 centimeters by the year 2050. Breaking down New York into the sub climate divisions that encompass the New York American Viticultural Areas provided a more granular assessment of the climate that directly affects the New York wine grape growing regions. All of New York climate division four temperature indicators assessed in this study revealed rises in temperature over time with strong statistical correlations. Correlations were considered strong when they were greater than or equal to 0.5 and were considered weak when the value was between 0.30 and 0.5. The NCEI calculated each of the temperature indicators to have risen 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade since the year 1895 (n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted the climate division four annual average minimum temperature to reach 7.77 degrees Celsius, the annual average maximum temperature to reach 16.96 degrees Celsius, and the annual average temperature to reach 12.37 degrees Celsius by the year 2050; an increase of approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius per indicator more than the historical average. Changes to the climate division four precipitation CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 65 levels did not provide sufficient statistical correlation to classify this climate indicator as either rising or falling. When climate division four was broken down into separate months representing the grape vine growing and dormant seasons, the results produced essentially the same results (Jones et al., 2005). The temperature indicators for the climate division four growing season, April through October, all revealed rises in temperature over time with strong correlations. The growing season rates of increase had risen as well, producing trend rates of 0.17 degrees Celsius per decade for the average minimum and the average temperature, with the average maximum temperature increasing at a rate of 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted temperature indicators to increase by an average of 1.38 degrees Celsius more than the historical average by the year 2050, with the average minimum temperature having climbed the most at 1.58 degrees Celsius. Once again, the rise in the growing season precipitation level did not reach sufficient correlation to classify this climate indicator as rising or falling. Climate division four dormant season temperature indicators also all showed rises in temperature with strong statistical correlations. The rate of increase for the dormant season had increased to 0.22 degrees Celsius per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted the temperature indicators to increase by an average of 2.03 degrees Celsius over the historical average by the year 2050. The changes in dormant season precipitation levels did not reach sufficient correlation to classify as rising or falling. New York climate division five annual temperature indicators all showed increases since 1895 with significant statistical correlation. NCEI calculated all three of the temperature indicators to have increased by 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade and will increase by another 0.39 degrees Celsius by the year 2050. The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted the year 2050 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 66 average minimum temperature will be 3.98 degrees Celsius, the average maximum temperature will be 15.36 degrees Celsius, and the average temperature will be 9.68 degrees Celsius, increases of 1.21, 1.06, and 1.14 degrees Celsius over historical averages. New York climate division five precipitation levels did not reach sufficient correlation to classify as rising or falling. The climate division five growing season analysis revealed temperatures to be increasing over time, although their correlations have reduced from strong to weak. The rate of increase is also less, with the average minimum temperature increasing by 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade, and the average maximum and average temperature changing by 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted all of them to increase over time as well, with the average minimum temperature increasing to 10.22 degrees Celsius, the average maximum temperature increasing to 22.54 degrees Celsius, and the average temperature reaching 16.37 degrees Celsius all by the year 2050. These represented 0.88, 0.68, and 0.77 degrees per decade increases over the historical averages. The change in growing season precipitation levels did not reach sufficient correlation to classify them as rising or falling. The dormant season was much the same, with all three of the temperature indicators revealing increases over time with weak correlations, all correlations above r(117) = 0.40, p<0.001. The NCEI calculated rates of increase for all three was 0.17 degrees Celsius, resulting in a predicted 0.60-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050. Microsoft FORECAST also predicted the temperature levels to increase 1.63, 1.55, and 1.59 degrees Celsius by the year 2050. The dormant season precipitation levels did not reach sufficient correlation to classify as either rising or falling. All climate division nine annual temperature indicators increased since 1895 with weak correlations. The rate of increase for the average minimum temperature and average temperature CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 67 was 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade, while the average maximum temperature increased at a rate of 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted climate division nine temperature values to continue to increase as well, with the average minimum temperature increasing by 1.07 degrees Celsius, the average maximum temperature increasing by 0.67 degrees Celsius, and the average temperature increase by 0.87 degrees, all by the year 2050. Precipitation levels in climate division nine also increased with a weak statistical correlation, increasing by 1.27 centimeters per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted them to continue increasing to a level of 108.31 centimeters in the year 2050, a 12.07centimeter increase over historical averages. In the climate division nine growing season, only the average minimum temperature and the precipitation level increased with a sufficient correlation to be classified as increasing over time, with correlations of and r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001 and r(118) = 0.38, p<0.001 respectively. NCEI calculated a low rate of increase for the average minimum temperature, 0.11 degrees Celsius, but the rate of increase for precipitation was significant, 1.02-centimeters per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted the average minimum temperature level to increase by 0.83 degrees Celsius over the historical average by the year 2050 and the precipitation level in 2050 to be 9.73-centimeters greater than the historical average. The dormant season analysis for climate division nine returned results similar to what was seen in climate divisions four and five, all three temperature indicators warmed over time with weak correlations. All three were calculated to have changed since 1896 by 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted them to change by 1.31, 1.21, and 1.27 degrees Celsius by the year 2050. Dormant season precipitation levels did not reach sufficient correlation to classify as either rising or falling. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 68 Only two of climate division ten temperature and precipitation levels increased over time with a significant correlation, the average minimum temperature and the precipitation levels. The average minimum temperature increased since 1895 by 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade and the precipitation levels increased since 1895 by 1.17 centimeters (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted the average minimum temperature to reach 2.15 degrees Celsius by the year 2050, a 0.69-degree Celsius change. Precipitation levels are predicted to reach 101.21 centimeters in the year 2050, an 11.22-centimeter change as predicted by Microsoft FORECAST. The climate division ten growing and dormant seasons were the anomaly of all the climate divisions, with no changes over time producing correlations of statistical significance for either the temperature indicators or precipitation. An important result considering that 85% of New York wine is created with Finger Lakes Wine Region grapes that are encompassed entirely within this climate division. Ultimately, this study found New York climate to change over time, particularly average minimum, average maximum, and average temperatures. Correlations between temperature indicators and time were significant enough to warrant this conclusion. Precipitation was found only to have increased with statistical relevance during the analysis of the overall New York climate, climate division nine annual and growing season levels, and climate division ten annual precipitation levels. Climate change differences in climate division four and five results presented the most statistical significance of all indicators analyzed in this study. Climate division ten is home to 85% of New York wine production and neither the growing season nor the dormant season temperature indicators presented statistically significant increases (Hira & Gabreldar, 2013). CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 69 One of the intended outcomes of this study was to determine if forecasted climate change would alter the future quantity or quality of New York grape growing regions, the third research question of the study. For the climate divisions that possessed statistically significant increases in temperature, none of the increases would jeopardize wine grape growth as compared to the climate requirements identified during this study. These temperature increases may actually enhance grape vine growth and allow the planting of less hardy grape varieties that are more highly prized for the quality wines they produce. According to the NYVSES, New York is located at the climatic edge of where wine grapes can be grown, with the lakes and rivers moderating surrounding temperatures and protecting vines (NYVSES, n.d.). As can be seen in Figure 6, New York bodies of water moderate surrounding temperatures, so temperatures become warmer closer to their coastlines (NYVSES, n.d). These findings relate directly to previous research that found countries with warmer climates to be negatively affected by increases in temperature (Bernetti et al., 2012; Fraga et al., 2014; Webb et al., 2007). Unlike these warmer locations, such as Australia or Mediterranean countries where Figure 6: Maps of New York depicting percentage of area with temperatures below -5, -10, and 15 degrees (NYVSES, n.d.). temperature may be moderately warm to begin with, the New York climate starts out on the cool side, so any increase in temperature from climate change could potentially benefit grape vineyards (Bernetti et al., 2012; Fraga et al., 2014; Webb et al., 2007). Temperature increases could also potentially increase to a level that enables European CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 70 grape varieties to prosper where New York temperatures were historically too cold to support them. The results of this study are also similar to what Fleming et al. (2015) found where wine production could increase in cooler climates due to warming temperatures and falls in line with the Melillo et al. (2014) research that projected an increase in the Northeastern US growing season length due to less days with frost. In addition, results of this study agree with NYSERDA (2011) research findings that found the New York wine industry may benefit from long term climate changes due to its cooler climate. There are two potential concerns when considering the results of this study. The first is when warmer temperatures begin to occur later in the year, such as the fall through spring months in New York, and then a sudden drop in temperature occurs, grape vines have a higher risk of freeze damage because vines and buds that have not hardened or become acclimatized (NYVSES, n.d.). This type of situation has occurred in the past, moderate temperatures were followed by a sudden cold snap that froze vine tissues and caused millions of dollars of damage to New York vineyards (NYSERDA, 2011). The second concern is that, as Fraga et al. (2014) identified, higher precipitation levels can lead to lower wine grape production and vineyards under a slight water stress can be more productive (2014). The overall New York climate, along with climate divisions nine and ten all showed precipitation levels to be on the rise with statistical relevance. The point where precipitation levels become concerning is based on many factors, such as soil drainage and soil type, which were not evaluated during this study, but rising precipitation remains a concern for vineyards to consider in the future (NYVSES, n.d.). Results from this study show that the future quantity or quality of New York grape growing regions may be altered, but it may be altered in a positive way. This study did not prove the hypothesis that global climate change will reduce New York State wine grape growing CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 71 regions. The results of this study do support an alternative theory that New York grape growing regions could potentially expand and may gain the ability to incorporate grape varieties that were previously denied to this region because of their warmer temperature requirements, potentially enabling production of finer quality wines because of gradually warming temperatures within these regions. In this way, regarding temperature and precipitation measurements at a climate division level, this study adequately tested this studies hypothesis. In addition to the temperature and precipitation climatic indicators analyzed during this study, there are several other environmental considerations that may affect New York viticulture, such as slope of vineyards, soil drainage, pH, and soil type, as well as adequate water, sunlight, and air movement (NYVSES, n.d.). These additional climatic considerations were beyond the scope of this survey, but would be excellent considerations for future research efforts. Due to the limitations of this study, such as the limited number of environmental conditions considered, this study does not evaluate all possible influences of climate on grape growing in New York. In addition to including other environmental conditions, designing the study to evaluate the geography and extent of the New York American Viticultural Areas at a more granular level would have presented a more accurate test of the hypothesis. These limitations do pose an ethical concern for this study in that this study presents a possible outcome based on its inherent design and cannot forecast outcomes outside of its design. This study may suggest that climate change may benefit the New York grape growing regions, but factors outside of the study design may determine that climate change may not provide benefits to these regions or may counteract the temperature and precipitation climate indicators evaluated during this study. Although this study did not prove the hypothesis that global climate change will reduce New York State wine grape growing regions in the future, considering this study did not analyze these further environmental CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 72 influences on New York Viticulture, this study also did not disprove the hypothesis. It would not be ethical to suggest New York wine grape growers and other interested parties should not evaluate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies solely based on the results of this study. Recommendations This study has shown the importance of climate to the economically and geographically important wine industry. Regardless of this studies outcome, agriculture will always be reliant on weather and, as such, efforts should continue to strengthen the ability for the farmer to collect the most accurate and precise weather measurements at the individual farm level. These measurements should then feed into a collective data warehouse that can leverage the power of technology to display real time weather data in a geographical information system (GIS) environment at any level, whether it is at the farm, region, or state. Developing (GIS) based maps to establish the exact boundaries of all American Viticultural Areas (AVA) would also provide accessibility and standardization for all research areas and allow climatic measurements to align with these federally recognized regions. Currently, the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (ATTTB) utilize written map directions to relay AVA boundaries and some of the reference maps used for these instructions date to the 1960s (ATTTB, 2015). In addition, developing industry recognized standards for climatic measurements as they relate to viticulture would enable supporting weather models to be developed and then complete calculations in real time, allowing for comparison among other regions of interest. Partnerships between all concerned stakeholders, whether they may be public, private, or government, should be built to help farmers leverage knowledge and technology. These partnerships would help all agricultural pursuits understand and adapt to climate change as well as increase productivity and bolster local CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 73 economies. All of these additional recommendations should be publicly accessible, providing another means to help the public understand and adapt to the affects of future climate change in New York. Limitations There are several limitations with this study, where more information may have created a more precise future forecast. New York wine grape growing regions are located on the edges of major waterways and lakes (ATTTB, 2015; NYW, 2014). These large bodies of water may influence the climate of surrounding areas, much like lake effect snow (NYVSES, n.d.). Although this study used climatic data for the specific NCEI climatological divisions that encompass the federally accepted New York wine grape growing regions, it was beyond the capabilities of this study to utilize more granular microclimate data, such as the higher resolution temperature and precipitation measurements. Additional microclimate measurement data may enhance the precision of future studies. In addition, incorporating additional climate indicators may also reveal hidden correlations, such as assessing the total number of heating or cooling days, growing season length, or growing season warmth (NYVSES, n.d.). The geographical extent of historical wine grape growing regions is also not readily available in a useable electronic format. Having a more modern adaption of the AVA maps would have provided for a unique look at the growth or reduction of suitable wine grape growing topography and will enhance future studies with historical land area trend. This study was concerned with the correlation between temperature and precipitation levels and the suitability of New York regions to support high quality wine grape growing conditions. There are several other conditions that are critical to the success of the grape vine, such as the length of the growing season, amount of available sunlight and thermal energy, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 74 available soil nutrients, the availability of water, soil drainage, and the movement of cold air masses (NYSVES, n.d.). Changes to any one of these can significantly affect the ability of grape vines to prosper in any particular geographic location, regardless of changes to the temperature and precipitation indicators evaluated in this study. In addition, this study did not identify grape vine species-specific climate requirements, where the inclusion of these may provide more accurate determinations of the ability of a region to support their growth, now or in the future. Future Research Future research pertaining to New York wine grape growing regions should continue to focus on identifying climatic indicators that can adequately define and assess the suitability of a geographical area to support varieties of grapes that produce high quality wine. Research should also devise forecasting models that can forecast and predict future climatic change and its associated impacts to New York viticulture and to reliably produce statistically significant results while incorporating as many climatic conditions as possible. In light of the results of this study, future research should also evaluate what geographic locations may be able to expand in area or productivity if colder climates warm sufficiently to support high quality wine producing grapes. In addition to temperature, evaluating the importance and potential affects of rising precipitation levels will also help New York wine grape growers adequately prepare for a wetter future if trends in precipitation found during this study continue. Keeping in mind the limitations of this study, the results of this study revealed the potential for locations with cooler climates to experience some benefit from global climate change associated increases in temperature. This study provided implications for agriculture in general, not just specifically for the grape growing and wine industries. 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DOI: 10.1111/j.1755-0238.2007.tb00247.x White, M., Diffenbaugh. N., Jones, G., Pal, J., & Giorgi, F. (2006). Extreme heat reduces and shifts United States premium wine production in the 21st century. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States (PNAS), 103(30), 11217-11222. doi:10.1073/pnas.0603230103. WXXI Public Broadcasting Council (WXXI). (2002). Blank map of New York State. Understanding Redistricting. Retrieved from http://www.wxxi.org/curriculum/redistrict/background/nybrainstorm.html CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 83 Appendices Appendix 1 – New York Climate Division Four Annual Climate Indicators Appendix 1: New York Climate Division Four Annual Temperature and Precipitation levels for the years 1895 to 2014 (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 84 Appendix 2 – New York Climate Division Four Growing Season Climate Indicators Appendix 2: New York Climate Division Four Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 85 Appendix 3 – New York Climate Division Four Dormant Season Climate Indicators Appendix 3: New York Climate Division Four Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 86 Appendix 4 – New York Climate Division Five Annual Climate Indicators Appendix 4: New York Climate Division Five Annual Temperature and Precipitation levels for the years 1895 to 2014 (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 87 Appendix 5 – New York Climate Division Five Growing Season Climate Indicators Appendix 5: New York Climate Division Five Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 88 Appendix 6 – New York Climate Division Five Dormant Season Climate Indicators Appendix 6: New York Climate Division Five Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 89 Appendix 7 – New York Climate Division Nine Annual Climate Indicators Appendix 7: New York Climate Division Nine Annual Temperature and Precipitation levels for the years 1895 to 2014 (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 90 Appendix 8 – New York Climate Division Nine Growing Season Climate Indicators Appendix 8: New York Climate Division Nine Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 91 Appendix 9 – New York Climate Division Nine Dormant Season Climate Indicators Appendix 9: New York Climate Division Nine Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 92 Appendix 10 – New York Climate Division Ten Annual Climate Indicators Appendix 10: New York Climate Division Ten Annual Temperature and Precipitation levels for the years 1895 to 2014 (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 93 Appendix 11 – New York Climate Division Ten Growing Season Climate Indicators Appendix 11: New York Climate Division Ten Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 94 Appendix 12 – New York Climate Division Ten Dormant Season Climate Indicators Appendix 12: New York Climate Division Ten Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING Appendix 13 – New York Climate Division Annual Climate Indicator Status Annual Average Minimum Temperature Annual Average Maximum Temperature Annual Average Temperature Annual Precipitation Level Appendix 13: Annual Climate Indicator Status. Map of New York depicting climate divisions (CD) four, five, nine, and ten. Climate divisions depicted in red if their annual average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, or average temperature had increased since 1895 with a statistical correlation of 0.30 or higher. White climate divisions did not increase in temperature or precipitation since 1895 with statistical significance. Blue climate divisions represent statistically significant increases in annual precipitation levels since 1895. Weather data obtained from National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI, n.d.b). New York State County Map obtained from (WXXI, 2002). Statistical analysis performed using the Microsoft Excel CORREL function (Microsoft, 2015a). 95 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING Appendix 14 – New York Climate Division Growing Season Climate Indicator Status Growing Season Average Minimum Temperature Growing Season Average Maximum Temperature Growing Season Average Temperature Growing Season Precipitation Appendix 14: Growing Season Climate Indicator Status. Map of New York depicting climate divisions (CD) four, five, nine, and ten. Climate divisions depicted in red if their growing season average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, or average temperature had increased since 1895 with a statistical correlation of 0.30 or higher. White climate divisions did not increase in temperature or precipitation since 1895 with statistical significance. Blue climate divisions represent statistically significant increases in growing season precipitation levels since 1895. Weather data obtained from National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI, n.d.b). New York State County Map obtained from (WXXI, 2002). Statistical analysis performed using the Microsoft Excel CORREL function (Microsoft, 2015a). 96 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING 97 Appendix 15 – New York Climate Division Dormant Season Climate Indicator Status Dormant Season Average Minimum Temperature Dormant Season Average Maximum Temperature Dormant Season Average Temperature Dormant Season Precipitation Appendix 15: Dormant Season Climate Indicator Status. Map of New York depicting climate divisions (CD) four, five, nine, and ten. Climate divisions depicted in red if their dormant season average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, or average temperature had increased since 1895 with a statistical correlation of 0.30 or higher. White climate divisions did not increase in temperature or precipitation since 1895 with statistical significance. Blue climate divisions represent statistically significant increases in dormant season precipitation levels since 1895. Weather data obtained from National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI, n.d.b). New York State County Map obtained from (WXXI, 2002). Statistical analysis performed using the Microsoft Excel CORREL function (Microsoft, 2015a).