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Master's Capstone Theses
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Climate Change Impacts on New York Wine
Grape Growing Regions
Benjamin L. Davis
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Climate Change Impacts on New York Wine Grape Growing Regions
A Master Thesis
Submitted to the Faculty
of
American Public University
by
Benjamin Lee Davis
In Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree
of
Master of Science
February 2016
American Public University
Charles Town, WV
The author hereby grants the American Public University System the right to display
these contents for educational purposes.
The author assumes total responsibility for meeting the requirements set by United States
copyright law for the inclusion of any materials that are not the author’s creation or in the
public domain.
© Copyright 2015 by Benjamin Lee Davis
All rights reserved.
DEDICATION
I dedicate this Master Thesis to my wife, Deborah, and children, Ethan and Emily,
who have provided me with the strength, understanding, and support to complete my long
overdue college education. Thank you.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I wish to thank my professor Dr. Jason M. Siniscalchi for providing the direction
and guidance that successfully led me through completion of this thesis. I had the good
fortune to benefit from Dr. Siniscalchi’s expertise at the onset of my course work in the
environmental policy and management program and his knowledge and advice led me
through its conclusion.
ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
REGIONS
by
Benjamin Lee Davis
American Public University System, November 8, 2015
Charles Town, West Virginia
Jason M. Siniscalchi, PhD, Thesis Professor
This study aimed to determine whether changes in climate would influence the
quality and quantity of New York wine grape growing regions by analyzing historical
temperature and precipitation levels and forecasting future levels. It was shown that the
climate in New York and within New York climate divisions that encompass federally
accepted New York American Viticultural Areas has changed over time; specifically
average minimum, average maximum, and overall average temperatures have gradually
increased since the year 1895 with statistical significance. The cool New York climate is
normally on the edge of acceptability for supporting many of the grape varieties that
produce high quality wine. Results of statistical forecasting conducted in this study
revealed a potential for the future quantity or quality of New York grape growing regions
to expand and the possibility of incorporating more high quality wine producing grape
varieties in New York viticulture because of gradually warming temperatures.
Table of Contents
I. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 11
Problem Statement ..................................................................................................... 12
II. Literature Review .............................................................................................................. 13
Global Climate Change ............................................................................................. 13
United States Climate Change .................................................................................. 16
New York Climate Change ....................................................................................... 18
Climate Change Research Needs .............................................................................. 18
Climate Change in Wine Grape Regions ................................................................. 19
Hypothesis / Research Questions.............................................................................. 25
III. Research Design .............................................................................................................. 26
Purpose Statement ..................................................................................................... 26
Variables and Data Collection .................................................................................. 26
Analysis Procedures .................................................................................................. 28
IV. Results ............................................................................................................................. 31
48 Contiguous States ................................................................................................. 31
Northeastern United States ........................................................................................ 33
New York State .......................................................................................................... 35
New York Climate Division Four............................................................................. 38
New York Climate Division Five ............................................................................. 44
New York Climate Division Nine ............................................................................ 50
New York Climate Division Ten .............................................................................. 55
V. Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 62
Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 62
Recommendations...................................................................................................... 72
Limitations ................................................................................................................. 73
Future Research ......................................................................................................... 74
References............................................................................................................................... 76
Appendices ............................................................................................................................. 83
List of Tables
Table 1: Contiguous United States Annual Temperature and Precipitation ....................... 32
Table 2: Northeast United States Annual Temperature and Precipitation .......................... 35
Table 3: New York State Annual Temperature and Precipitation ...................................... 37
Table 4: New York Climate Division Four Annual Temperature and Precipitation ......... 41
Table 5: New York Climate Division Four Temperature and Precipitation for the
Growing Season of April through October. ............................................................. 42
Table 6: New York Climate Division Four Temperature and Precipitation for the
Dormant Season of November through March ........................................................ 44
Table 7: New York Climate Division Five Annual Temperature and Precipitation .......... 46
Table 8: New York Climate Division Five Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing
Season of April through October .............................................................................. 48
Table 9: New York Climate Division Five Annual Temperature and Precipitation for the
Dormant Season of November through March. ....................................................... 49
Table 10: New York Climate Division Nine Annual Temperature and Precipitation ....... 52
Table 11: New York Climate Division Nine Temperature and Precipitation for the
Growing Season of April through October. ............................................................. 53
Table 12: New York Climate Division Nine Temperature and Precipitation for the
Dormant Season of November through March. ....................................................... 54
Table 13: New York Climate Division Ten Annual Temperature and Precipitation......... 57
Table 14: New York Climate Division Ten Temperature and Precipitation for the
Growing Season of April through October. ............................................................. 59
Table 15: New York Climate Division Ten Temperature and Precipitation for the
Dormant Season of November through March. ....................................................... 60
List of Figures
Figure 1: New York Wine Regions...................................................................................... 12
Figure 2: Changes to global average temperature and precipitation over time .................. 15
Figure 3: Chart depicting US average temperature change between the years of 1991 and
2012. ........................................................................................................................... 16
Figure 4: Chart depicting increase in number of very hot days in US Northeast. ............. 17
Figure 5: Map of New York Climate Divisions. .................................................................. 27
Figure 6: Maps of New York depicting percentage of area with temperatures below -5, 10, and -15 degrees. ................................................................................................... 69
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
11
I. Introduction
The art of wine making is thought to have first occurred 6,000 years ago in the region of
Mesopotamia (Cornell University [CU], 2008a). It is believed that Leif Eriksson brought the
wine making industry to North America in the year 1000, but the native North American species
of grape vine were not sufficient to render good quality wine, especially when compared to
native European species (CU, 2008a). The use of a European variety of grape vine, Vitis
vinifera, was attempted years later in North America, however this variety did not thrive in the
new environment due to differences in climate, soil, and fauna (CU, 2008a). European colonists
made due with passable wines until native North American grape varieties were taken to Europe,
where experiments were conducted to improve them (CU, 2008a). Unfortunately, the North
American species carried with it a root louse that decimated native European varieties that did
not posses bark thick enough to protect it from the damaging louse (CU, 2008a). After this
disaster, attempts were made to graft the European variety onto American variety rootstock,
eventually new hybrids appeared that showed attributes of both species, the climate and pest
resilience of the American species combined with the desirable wine qualities of the European
species (CU, 2008a). Edward Ralph Emerson wrote of the American climate as historically
suitable for wine making and traced the first mention of American wine being made available for
purchase in the year 1622 (1901). Emerson also reported that in the year 1840 approximately
25,000 gallons of wine were made in the US, production that later climbed to 60 million gallons
in the year 1901 (1901).
Wine making in New York is thought to have been first attempted by the Dutch, who
were foiled in their efforts by their own war and legal matters (Emerson, 1901). The English
then acquired the New York territory and then Governor Nicolls began growing wine grapes on
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
12
his Long Island property (Emerson, 1901). A subsequent Governor also had great hopes for the
future of New York wine and was excited on how well the grape vines grew along the Hudson
River (Emerson, 1901). One of these Hudson River Valley vineyards was planted in 1837,
within the town of Washingtonville, where the Brotherhood Winery started its operations (CU,
2008b; Emerson, 1901).
Problem Statement
With over 9,000 wineries in North America, the United States (US) is the fourth largest
wine producer in the world, increasing wine production 45% since 2004 (Thach, 2015). Within
the United States, New York (NY) is the fourth largest wine producing state, with five active
wine-grape growing regions containing eight federally recognized American Viticultural Areas
(AVAs) (Figure 1) (Alcohol and Tobacco Tax
and Trade Bureau [ATTTB], 2015; New York
Wines [NYW], 2014). New York wineries are
considered the oldest wine industry in the
United States, with wine production as early as
1677, and New York possesses the oldest active
winery in the United States, the Brotherhood
Figure 1: New York Wine Regions (NYW, 2014).
Winery, as mentioned previously, which produced its first commercial wine in 1839 (CU, 2008b;
Hira & Gabreldar, 2013). The grape and wine production within these five regions produces
$4.8 billion in economic benefit for New York, including 25,000 jobs, $1.14 billion in wages,
and $408 million in state and local taxes (NYW, 2014). Over 175 million bottles of wine were
bottled in 2014 using grapes grown by over 1,600 family owned vineyards and processed in
more than 400 wineries (NYW, n.d.). This industry is also costly and risky to conduct; an
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
13
estimated capital investment of $32,300 is required per acre to establish a 50-acre wine grape
production operation within the Finger Lakes region of New York (CU, 2014). The unique New
York topography and climate provides the delicate balance of water, soil, and climatic conditions
that permits growth of grapes of sufficient quality for use in wine production and the many
benefits of viticulture, the science of cultivating grapevines (Bernetti, Menghini, Marinelli,
Sacchelli, & Sottini, 2012; Fraga, Malheiro, Moutinho-Pereira, & Santos, 2014; Jones, White,
Cooper, & Storchmann, 2005; Kizildeniz, Mekni, Santesteban, Pascual, Morales, & Irigoyen,
2015; White, Diffenbaugh, Jones, Pal, & Giorgi, 2006). Global climate change may threaten this
delicate balance (Jones et al., 2005; Mira de Orduña, 2010; Mozell & Thach, 2014). Quality
wine production is reliant on the ability of climate and topography to sustain high quality grape
varieties (Bernetti et al., 2012). New York State wine regions were specifically chosen for this
study because they provide substantial benefit to the New York economy, are at risk of extreme
weather events, have limited topography for growing high quality wine grapes, and possess
geographical and political barriers to northward expansion (NYW, 2014).
II. Literature Review
Literature was reviewed to determine availability and quality of global climate change
data, the current needs for climate change research, climate change impacts on viticulture in
general, and regional climate change effects on wine grape growing regions of the world, to
include New York State. Specific topics of research included definitions of global climate
change, the historical climate of New York, climate change trends in New York State, and the
current extent of New York State wine grape growing regions.
Global Climate Change
Notably at a global level, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
14
published a Synthesis Report for their fifth climate change assessment (2014b). This key
document was written by 308 scientists from 70 different countries and outlines the most current
scientific assessment of climate change for planet Earth (IPCC, 2014b). The reason for these
past and projected climate changes is the continued release of so called “greenhouse gases” from
anthropogenic processes, the major greenhouse gases being carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane
(CH 4 ), and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) (IPCC, 2014b). As the human population grows and progresses,
more greenhouse gases are released by anthropogenic sources; this progression is especially
noticeable since the dawn of the human industrial era, around 1750 to 1800 (IPCC, 2014b).
Since 1750, CO 2 emissions have risen by 40%, CH 4 emissions increased 150%, and emissions of
N 2 O have increased by 20% (IPCC, 2014b). The IPCC reported that current levels of
greenhouse gases in our atmosphere are higher now than they have been in the last 800,000 years
and recent technological and industrial advances have compounded this problem, with
greenhouse gas emissions between the years 2000 and 2010 being the highest in recorded history
(IPCC, 2014b). Carbon dioxide emissions are by far the largest, accounting for 65% of
greenhouse gas emissions in 2010, 40% of post 1750 CO 2 emissions have remained in the
atmosphere (IPCC, 2014b).
The true danger lies with an effect of these Greenhouse gas emissions, what the IPCC
scientists termed radiative forcing (IPCC, 2014b). Radiative forcing is the reason behind the
greenhouse gas title, the gases act like a greenhouse trapping thermal energy at the planet surface
and cause an increase in near-surface temperature (Environmental Protection Agency [EPA],
2015c; IPCC, 2014b). Although near-surface warming results in direct effects of increased
thermal energy, such as increases in temperature and decreases in ice and snow, it can also result
in indirect or cumulative effects, such as changes to the global water cycle, upon which
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
15
ecosystems and climate are reliant (IPCC, 2014b). The IPCC scientists listed five main reasons
for climate change concern; it further threatens unique and already fragile environmental
systems, climate change will produce more extreme weather events, impacts will be unevenly
distributed, and there are severe risks of harmful large-scale singular affects as well as
synergistic harm from many smaller events (IPCC, 2014b).
The IPCC is 95% percent convinced that humans have caused global warming (IPCC,
2014b). They found climate change to have affected natural systems on every continent, average
precipitation rates in the Northern hemisphere
have increased, and the global average land and
ocean temperature has increased by 0.85 degrees
Celsius (Figure 2) (IPCC, 2014b). The IPCC
believed surface temperatures will rise
throughout the 21st century regardless of
greenhouse gas emission reductions (IPCC,
2014b). This rise will likely be between 0.3 and
Figure 2: Changes to global average temperature and
precipitation over time (IPCC, 2014b).
0.7 degrees Celsius by the year 2035 (IPCC, 2014b). The IPCC also reported with high
confidence that terrestrial species have had to alter their geographic ranges and seasonal cycles
(IPCC, 2014b). The authors were virtually certain that both hot and cold temperature extremes
will become more frequent, with higher frequency and longer duration heat waves (IPCC,
2014b). They had high confidence that agriculture would be affected by climate change, with
changes varying by crop, and authors expected that climate changes will produce more negative
effects for agriculture than positive (IPCC, 2014b). A near-surface temperature increase of two
degrees Celsius is expected to affect regional agriculture and crop yields (IPCC, 2014b).
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
16
United States Climate Change
Similar to the international effort of the IPCC, Melillo, Richmond, & Yohe (2014)
provided the United States (US) Global Change Research Program’s third assessment of climate
change impacts in the United States. The authors reported that since the year 1895, the US
average temperature has
increased an estimated 0.7 to one
degree Celsius, with the majority
of warming having occurred
since 1970 (Melillo et al., 2014).
Figure 3: Chart depicting US average temperature change between the
years of 1991 and 2012 (Melillo et al., 2014).
The authors also explained that
this warming has not occurred uniformly, there have been short-term fluctuations in weather, but
overall there had been a steady climb in near-surface temperatures (Melillo et al., 2014). The
hottest decade and year on record have both occurred since the year 2000 (Melillo et al., 2014).
Melillo et al. expected temperatures to increase a further one to two degrees Celsius in the US
over the next thirty years, even more by the end of the century (2014).
This USGCRP assessment identified the Northeastern United States as having had a 71%
increase in very heavy precipitation and the majority of New York has had an average
temperature change greater than 0.55 degrees Celsius between the years of 1991 and 2012
(Figure 3) (Melillo et al., 2014). Like the IPCC, the USGCRP projected that heat waves will
increase in frequency, intensity, and duration (Melillo et al., 2014). The USGCRP also believed
that a future average temperature increase in the Northeast by the year 2080 could be as high as
2.8 to 6.6 degrees Celsius, potentially disrupting agriculture (Figure 4) (Melillo et al., 2014). In
addition to changes in temperature, the Northeast US has seen a 70% rise in top one percentile
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
17
heavy precipitation events between the years 1958 and 2010 and a five to ten percent increase in
New York annual precipitation is projected by Melillo et al. (2014). Directly related to this
research proposal, Melillo et al. (2014) reported the New York Finger Lakes wine grape growers
to have lost “millions of dollars” (p. 380) in 2003 and 2004 because of warm Decembers,
followed by hard freezes. Also, the authors projected a ten-day increase in Northeastern seasonal
frost-free days, essentially increasing the growing season length by ten days (Melillo et al.,
2014).
The Environmental Protection Agency Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and
Sinks provided the most current assessment of the US contribution to global greenhouse gas
emissions (2015c). The latest inventory of US greenhouse
gas emissions is for the year 2013, and shows an increase
of 5.9% since 1990 (EPA, 2015c). This increase was
primarily from an increase of burning coal to generate
electricity (EPA, 2015c). Although there was an overall
increase during this time frame, the 2013 emission of 372
million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MMT CO2 Eq.)
was substantially lower than the 2007 peak of 1,099 MMT
CO2 Eq. (EPA, 2015c). Carbon dioxide is by far the largest
US greenhouse gas emission (82.5%) and is almost
Figure 4: Chart depicting increase in
number of very hot days in US
Northeast (Melillo et al., 2014).
completely produced by the burning of fossil fuels (93.7%) (EPA, 2015c). The US has
maintained an average annual greenhouse gas emission increase of 0.3% since 1990; overall
emissions are not decreasing (EPA, 2015c).
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
18
New York Climate Change
Addressing climate change in New York specifically, the New York State Energy
Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) had identified that warmer temperatures and
more frequent heat stress can decrease the production quality of New York agricultural crops
(Figure 4) (2011). They also warned that warmer temperatures may also allow invasive pests
and plants to move into New York and threaten important agricultural species (NYSERDA,
2011). Warmer winters will result in less snow cover, which is relied on to insulate roots and
without this insulation, root biology may be disturbed (NYSERDA, 2011). The NYSERDA
(2011) found precipitation changes to be less easy to forecast, but projected that New York will
see both an increase in heavy rainfall events and late summer droughts, both of which can
damage agricultural crops. Important to this research, the NYSERDA believed New York to be
in less jeopardy of climate change induced wine grape growing losses than other parts of the
nation and may actually benefit from long term climate changes (2011). They did caution
though that temperature variability in the winter months has caused frost damage to grape vines
in the past (NYSERDA, 2011). Warmer temperatures have de-hardened vines, which suffered
damage during subsequent freezes (NYSERDA, 2011).
Climate Change Research Needs
To help determine need for climate change research, a review of the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) Research Priorities on Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation:
Responding to the Climate Change Challenge document was conducted (2013). The team of
international scientists and policy makers from the Programme of Research on Climate Change
Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation (PROVIA) have identified thirty-three prioritized climate
change topics where further research is desired (UNEP, 2013). The document provided a
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
19
convenient single-point reference for future research that both scientists and policy makers
consider a priority (UNEP, 2013). Of note for this research proposal, the PROVIA team found it
important to determine climate change effects on agriculture at both the regional and local levels
and develop an understanding of how climate will affect agricultural systems (UNEP, 2013).
A group of academics, scientists, and economists calling themselves the Risky Business
Project (RBP) and co-chaired by Michael Bloomberg, Henry Paulson, and Thomas Steyer,
provided an economic assessment of climate change in the United States (RBP, 2014). This
assessment reached many of the same climate change and climate shift conclusions as Melillo et
al. (2014) and UNEP (2013), as well as predicted an increase in high temperature days in the
Northeast United States, increasing from 2.6 days over 35 degrees Celsius to between 4.7 and 16
days above 35 degrees Celsius (RBP, 2014). The Project believes the United States agricultural
system is capable of adapting at a national level, but projects difficulties for small farming
communities to adapt to climate change, threatening local economies (RBP, 2014).
Climate Change in Wine Grape Regions
Jones et al. (2005) provided research directly related to the effect of climate change on
global wine quality, stating that between the years 1950 and 1999, most of the wine regions of
the world suffered from warming of the growing season. Jones et al. surmised that agricultural
production will be negatively effected in the future from changes in winter hardening, frost, and
the length of growing seasons and that these three changes are critical to viticulture (2005). The
baseline climate of a region establishes what grape varieties can be grown, while climate
variability influences overall quality (Jones et al., 2005). The length of the growing season and
growing season temperatures are critical to developing grapes with the correct sugar levels,
acidity, and taste (Jones et al., 2005). Jones et al. also provided climate requirements for
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
20
viticulture, as well as climate grouping and climate trends for thirty wine types and regions
(2005). Their analysis included growing season average temperatures and trends, which
included the months from April to October for the Northern Hemisphere, and average dormant
season temperatures and trends, which are November to March in the Northern Hemisphere
(Jones et al., 2005). Climate variables were averaged for the years 1950 to 1999 (Jones et al.,
2005). The authors illustrate the delicate climatic balance needed for high quality wine grapes;
cold regions may lead to more consistent quality, but those regions on the edge of suitability may
become to cool to support any grape variety (Jones et al., 2005). Climates that warm may lessen
freeze damage, but could result in conditions too warm to harden buds (Jones et al., 2005). Jones
et al. did provide information for US wine regions, but not for US Northeastern regions (2005).
A number or journal articles addressed climate change impacts within specific wine
regions of the world (Bernetti et al., 2012; Fleming, Dowd, Gaillard, Park, & Howden, 2015;
Fraga et al., 2014; Hira & Gabreldar, 2013; Jones & Davis, 2000; Lereboullet, Beltrando, &
Bardsley, 2013; Webb, Whetton, & Barlow, 2007). Bernetti et al. (2012) used mathematical
modeling to determine on how climate change may affect one specific region of the world,
Tuscan viticulture within Italy. The authors found that climate change will have a substantial
effect on Tuscan viticulture and may even require costly climate change adaptation strategies
(Bernetti et al., 2012). Bernetti et al. also defined the term terroir, which is used to label the
critical relationship between climate, soil, type of vine variety, and cultivation technique (2012).
Terroir is specific to a grape growing geographical region and its particular set of conditions that
produce high quality, diverse, and original regional wine (Bernetti et al., 2012). Bernetti et al. is
also important to this research because it recognized the importance of habitat and climate for
viticulture and identified nineteen very specific climatic traits that are important when modeling
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
21
climate change effects on viticulture (2012). The nineteen climatic traits used by Bernetti et al.
(2012) include: the annual mean temperature; a mean of the monthly maximum temperature
minus the minimum temperature; temperature seasonality; the maximum temperature of the
warmest month; the minimum temperature of the coldest month; the annual range of
temperatures; mean temperatures for the wettest, driest, warmest, and coldest months; annual
precipitation; precipitation levels of the wettest and driest months; and the precipitation for the
wettest, driest, warmest, and coldest quarters. Climate variables were averaged for the years
1950 to 2000 (Bernetti et al., 2012).
Similar to Bernetti et al., Fraga et al. (2014) researched climate change effects on the
Portuguese Minho region. This study identified several key climatic considerations for wine
grape quality, such as the presence of frost during growing season, surface air temperatures
between twelve and 22 degrees Celsius, and that temperatures over 35 degrees Celsius can
damage grapevine leaves and grapes (Fraga et al., 2014). Fraga et al. also identified that weather
conditions during the grape growing season greatly influences the quality and yield of wine, with
climatic conditions specifically during the months of February through September being critical
to viticulture (2013). Higher precipitation levels tend to result in lower wine grape production,
while slight water stress can be beneficial to production (Fraga et al., 2014).
Research conducted by Fleming et al. (2015) focused on the psychological stresses to
farmers as they cope with climate change effects, but it also identified several important facts
concerning Australian wine grape growing regions. The authors stated that Australian wine
producers will be negatively affected by climate change, temperature and precipitation changes
being the most concerning, although some of the wine production in cooler Australian climates
may experience increased productivity (Fleming et al., 2015). Also, the authors stated that
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
22
climate change may affect wine production sooner than other agricultural systems, because grape
varieties must be able to mature over several years before they are their most productive,
effectively shortening the amount of time before adaptation strategies must be implemented
(2015). When considering long-term climate change, these adaptations efforts may be
substantial enough to lead to farm relocations and even closures (Fleming et al., 2015).
Jones & Davis (2000) provided the results of a long-term climate study in Bordeaux,
France designed to compare climate to grape phenology. Jones & Davis also identified that the
climatic conditions of distinct regions of the world are what provide high quality wine grapes, an
“optimum seasonal climate” (2000, p. 249). The authors stated the importance of understanding
the stages of vine growth and understanding how climate directly influences optimal growth and
production (Jones & Davis, 2000). The intervals between phenological events, such as the
bursting of buds or flowering, correlate to the climate, the more ideal the climatic conditions, the
shorter the intervals (Jones & Davis, 2000). Of importance to this study, Jones & Davis utilized
daily measurements of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, hours of insolation, and
precipitation levels for climate data for their study (2000). These climatic indicators were
obtained for the years 1949 through 1997 (Jones et al., 2005). From these four indicators, Jones
& Davis constructed further climatic indicators, such as the number of days that temperatures
were less than -2.5 and -10 degrees Celsius, greater than 25 and 30 degrees Celsius, a composite
of temperature and precipitation data to derive the estimated potential evapotranspiration, and a
sum of average temperatures that correlates well with growing degree days (2000). These
climatic indicators were then evaluated based on the critical stages of vine development (Jones &
Davis, 2000). Overall, Jones & Davis found that grape vines have reached growth stages earlier
and their growing season has become longer due to the changing climate, that precipitation
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
23
during certain stages of vine development could decrease production, and phenological changes
could increase wine quality by altering levels of acid and sugar within the grapes (2000).
Lereboullet et al. (2013) studied adaptation to climate change in the Rousillon wine
region of France and the McLaren Vale wine region of Australia, both possessing a
Mediterranean climate (CSb). The authors did not conduct a vulnerability study, but did state
that past studies have shown the success of these wine regions to hinge on water resources,
which are projected to be altered by climate change (Lereboullet et al., 2013). This article also
listed two frequent methods to assessing future impact on wine grape production, using climatic
indices to determining the future suitability of a region or showing the impact of climate on
grape variety physiology (Lereboullet et al., 2013). Both study types completed for the two
regions showed climate change to negatively impact wine grape production and quality
(Lereboullet et al., 2013). Lereboullet et al. (2013) also provided examples of long-term climate
change adaptation strategies, such as using technology to control application of water in specific
climatic conditions. Lereboullet et al. concluded their study by recognizing climate change will
alter agricultural systems, these systems will have to be modified to adapt, and adaptations can
be successful in decreasing future climate stress (2013).
Webb et al. (2007) also focused on Australian wine grape growing regions, studying the
effects of climate change on two wine grape varieties, Chardonnay and Cabernet Sauvignon,
which ripen at different times of the growing season. Webb et al. found temperature to be the
most significant factor to grape development (2007). Their research showed that for the six wine
grape growing regions they studied, five of them will have temperatures altered enough by
climate change to affect the timing of budburst and grape harvest (Webb et al., 2007). As a
result, grape harvest is projected to occur earlier in the season, during warmer temperatures,
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
24
which reduces the quality of grapes (Webb et al., 2007). The authors projected grape harvest in
Australia to occur up to 45 days early, which correlates to studies conducted in France that show
harvest to occur one month earlier than it had fifty years ago (Webb et al., 2007).
Hira & Gabreldar (2013) provided a comparison between the New York, Washington
State, and Oregon wine industries. The authors reported that New York is a leading producer of
grapes in the US and can produce a large quantity of wine, but the quality is concerning (Hira &
Gabreldar, 2013). They also reported that 85% of New York wine is created in the Finger Lakes
Region (Hira & Gabreldar, 2013). Hira & Gabreldar attributed the lesser quality of New York
wine to the use of hybrid grape varieties, such as labrusca, the use of which are driven by the
New York climate (2013).
This literature review focused initially on global climate change, with temperature and
precipitation changes at global and regional scales; addressed temperature and precipitation
changes within New York itself; and then explored literature addressing climate change impacts
to global and regional viticulture (Environmental Protection Agency [EPA], 2014, 2015a, &
2015b; IPCC, 2012, 2013, 2014a, 2014b; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Center for Environmental Information [NCEI], n.d.a & n.d.b.; New York State
Department of Environmental Conservation [NYSDEC], 2015; New York State Energy
Research and Development Authority [NYSERDA], 2011; New York Vineyard Site Evaluation
System [NYVSES], n.d.; Northeast Regional Climate Center [NRCC], 2009; & United States
Global Change Research Program [USGCRP], 2012). This research study was valuable because
of the important socio-economic benefits the wine industry provides to New York, specifically
the revenue it generates and the social impacts that would result from a loss of the wineproducing region in New York (NYW, 2014). New York is the fourth largest producer of wine
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
25
in the United States and relies on a very specific topography and climate to support it (Bernetti et
al., 2012; Fraga et al., 2014; Kizildeniz et al., 2015; NYW, 2014; White et al., 2006). Changes to
temperature and precipitation levels within these key New York grape growing regions could
result in an unsuitable climate for growing the grapes used in the production of wine (Bernetti et
al., 2012; Fraga et al., 2014; Kizildeniz et al., 2015; White et al., 2006). Research into the effects
of climate change on New York wine producing regions is limited, although it has been
accomplished extensively for other wine producing regions of the world (Bernetti et al., 2012;
Fleming et al., 2015; Fraga et al., 2014; Hira & Gabreldar, 2013; Jones & Davis, 2000;
Lereboullet et al., 2013; Webb et al., 2007). This research helped strengthen the understanding
of global climate change affects to agricultural industries and specifically analyzed the future
risk of climate change to reduce regionally important New York State wine grape growing
regions.
Hypothesis / Research Questions
As a result, the primary hypothesis of this study was to correlate global climate change
and reduction of suitable wine grape growing regions within New York State. In addition, the
following research questions were addressed:
(1) What are the climatic requirements for New York viticulture?
(2) Has the New York climate changed over time?
(3) Will forecasted climate change alter future quantity or quality of New York grape
growing regions?
Hypothesis: Global climate change will reduce New York State wine grape growing
regions.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
26
III. Research Design
Purpose Statement
New York State possesses five socially and economically important wine grape growing
regions that are highly dependent on unique climatic conditions to support high quality wine
production (Bernetti et al., 2012; NYW, 2014). These climatic conditions are critical to the
future of wine production in New York and may be threatened by future changes to the New
York climate, such as deviations of temperature and precipitation levels from historical norms or
increases in extreme weather events (Bernetti et al., 2012; NYW, 2014). This study
quantitatively researched the correlation between global climate change and reduction of suitable
wine grape growing regions within New York State. The independent variable in the hypothesis
is “global climate change” and this study used the following definition of “global climate
change”: significant changes in near surface temperature and precipitation measures for an
extended time period (EPA, 2015b). The dependent variable in the hypothesis is the current
geographic extent and climate of New York State wine grape growing regions, expressed as
absolute locations, and their historical average near-surface monthly temperature and
precipitation levels. Specifically, the geographic extent included all eight federally recognized
American Viticultural Areas located within New York State (Figure 1) (ATTTB, 2015).
Correlations between the independent and dependent variables were used to assess potential
reductions in suitable wine grape growing regions in New York State due to climatic changes,
reductions that would result in significant social and economic losses for local agricultural
communities.
Variables and Data Collection
To scientifically validate the hypothesis and achieve the purpose of this study,
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
27
quantitative research of several variables and seven units of analysis was required. Historical
measurements for surface temperature and precipitation rates for the Earth, New York State, and
the New York State wine grape growing regions were collected. The exact geographic
boundaries of the current New York state wine grape growing regions were obtained from the
Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (ATTTB) 27 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR),
Part 9 that outlines the boundaries of federally accepted American Viticultural Areas (AVAs)
(Figure 1) (United States Government Publishing Office [USGPO], 2015). Climate
measurements for the independent and dependent variables were acquired from the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
National Center for Environmental Information
(NCEI), the New York Vineyard Site Evaluation
System (NYVSES), the Cornell University
Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC), and
further searches of scientific literature (NCEI, n.d.a.
& n.d.b; NRCC, 2009; NYVSES, n.d.). Forecasted
changes to United States and New York climates
were obtained from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Figure 5: Map of New York Climate Divisions
(National Weather Service Climate Prediction
Center [NWSCPC], 2005).
Climate Change, the United States Global Change Research Program, the American
Meteorological Society, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation
(NYSDEC), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the New York State Energy Research
and Development Authority (NYSERDA), and extrapolated using trends derived from past
climate data (Blunden & Arndt, 2015; EPA, 2014; IPCC, 2014a; NYSDEC, 2015; NYSERDA,
2011; USGCRP, 2012).
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
28
Analysis Procedures
Microsoft Excel spreadsheet software was used to compile, analyze, and graphically
portray climate data collected during this study from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) (n.d.b).
Statistical analysis was conducted for average minimum, average maximum, and average
monthly temperatures and precipitation levels for the 48 contiguous states, the Northeast United
States, New York, and the four NOAA climate divisions (CD) of New York that cover all five
New York wine grape growing regions; CDs 4, 5, 9, and 10 (NCEI, n.d.b). The contiguous
United States data covered the 48 contiguous states (not Alaska and Hawaii) (NCEI, n.d.b). The
Northeastern data encompassed the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland,
Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and
Vermont (NCEI, n.d.b). New York climatological subdivisions Coastal (4), Hudson Valley (5),
Great Lakes (9), and Central Lakes (10) encompassed the land areas of the eight New York
American Viticultural Areas (Figure 5). NCEI data utilized for this analysis included monthly
averages of the years 1895 to 2014 for each of the seven units of analysis (NCEI, n.d.b). NCEI
data is part of the US Climate Divisional Dataset, which is both temporally and spatially
complete and provided historical climatic data since the year 1895 (NCEI, n.d.c). The NCEI
calculated monthly values for each weather station in the 344 US climate divisions (n.d.c).
Statewide and regional values are then calculated by NCEI using a geographical area weighting
(NCEI, n.d.c).
Wine critical time frames were averaged for each month and year data is available,
providing trends in temperature and precipitation for each unit of analysis and allowing for
comparison to the independent variable and other wine grape growing regions. Average
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
29
minimum, average maximum, and average monthly temperatures and precipitation levels for
seasonal time frames critical to wine grape growing were separately grouped, analyzed, and
compared to historical records. Critical time frames for viticulture included the growing season
months of April through October and the dormant season months of November to March (Jones
et al., 2005)
Scientifically validated climate change predictions, specifically projected changes in
temperatures and precipitation levels, and extrapolations of historical climate data were
compared to viticulture climate requirements to determine potential effects on suitable wine
grape growing regions within New York State. Specific analysis included line graphs and trend
lines to illustrate trends in temperature and precipitation over time for all units of analysis.
Bivariate linear line graphs portrayed correlations between climate data and its timeframe for
each New York wine region, using regression lines and analysis and a standard alpha level of
0.05. Inferential analysis was conducted to determine the effects of future climate projections on
the future suitability of present-day New York State wine grape growing regions.
For each unit of analysis, the average minimum, average maximum, and average
temperature measurements (degrees Fahrenheit) and precipitation levels (inches) were collected
for all months during the years 1895 to 2014. This sample represents 480 sample points, four for
each of the 120 years available, for each unit of analysis. All climate data was converted to
metric units of measurement. Climate measurements obtained from NCEI were monthly
averages; daily measurements were not available (NCEI, n.d.c). A line graph was constructed
for each climatic indicator, with the climate measurement plotted on the y-axis and the year
measured plotted on the x-axis. Linear trends lines illustrated the overall trend for each
measurement, while correlation calculations provided the statistical significance of the climatic
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
30
indicator/time relationship. Forecasts were then calculated for the year 2050 to show predicated
outcomes.
The Microsoft Excel CORREL function was used to analyze correlation strength between
each climatic indicator and time (Microsoft, 2015a). The CORREL function utilizes the
following formula:
In this formula,
represent the mean for each array (Microsoft, 2015a). Correlations of -
0.5 to -1.0 and 0.5 to 1.0 were considered strong, while correlations of -0.5 to -0.3 and 0.3 to 0.5
were considered weak. All other correlation values were not considered statistically significant.
Standard deviations were also calculated for each climatic indicator using the Microsoft excel
function STDEV, which utilizes the formula:
The variable x represents the sample mean, while n represents the sample size (Microsoft,
2015b). The Microsoft Excel statistical forecasting function was also utilized to produce year
2050 forecast (FORECAST) (Microsoft, 2015c). The FORECAST function is used to
statistically predict future values based on existing values, in this case existing years and
temperature and precipitation measurements, using the following formulas (Microsoft, 2015c):
and
In these two formulas, the x represents the average of known x-axis values (years) and the y
represents the average of known y-axis values (temperature or precipitation values) (Microsoft,
2015c). Using these two formulas, Microsoft Excel can return the predicted temperature or
precipitation value for a selected year of interest, in this instance the year 2050 was chosen.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
31
IV. Results
48 Contiguous States
Analysis of the temperature and precipitation data for the 48 contiguous states provided
an overview of US climate trends. Monthly results for the 48 contiguous states showed an
upward sloping trend line for all monthly climatic indicators except for three, precipitation levels
in January, February, and July showed declining trend lines. All temperature indicators showed
an upward trend, meaning temperatures increased overall since 1895, although only four showed
weak correlations and there were no strong correlations. June, July, and August average
minimum temperatures and the August average temperature increased over time and all showed
weak correlations, r(118) = 0.35, p<0.001; r(118) = 0.44, p<0.001; r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001; and
r(118) = 0.30, p 0.001 respectively. Overall annual averages for each of the four climatic
indicators resulted in upward sloping trend lines (Table 1). Three of the indicators provided
weak or strong correlations. The average annual minimum temperature had a strong correlation
of r(118) = 0.55, p<0.001, showing an overall increase in temperature from 1895 to 2014. The
average annual temperature showed a strong r(118) = 0.50, p<0.001 correlation, also showing an
overall increase in temperature since 1895. The average annual maximum temperature showed a
weak correlation of r(118) = 0.41, p<0.001, revealing a lesser, but still apparent, increase in
temperature since 1895.
Results showed all annual average temperature indicators for the 48 contiguous states
warmed over time. NCEI calculated a 0.08 degrees Celsius per decade increase for the annual
average minimum temperature, which would result in a 0.28-degree Celsius increase by the year
2050 and a year 2050 annual average minimum temperature of 4.82 degrees Celsius (NCEI,
n.d.b). For both the annual average maximum temperature and the annual average temperature,
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
32
the NCEI calculated their increase in temperature to be 0.07 degrees Celsius per decade, which
would equate to a 0.25-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 and year 2050 values of 18.09
and 11.44 degrees Celsius respectively (NCEI, n.d.b). These year 2050 increases are lower than
the Melillo et al. estimate of a one to two-degree Celsius increase in the US, but did show the US
is slowly warming (2014). Using the Microsoft Excel FORECAST function provided a
prediction of future values based on historical values. The FORECAST function predicted that
by the year 2050 the annual average minimum temperature would reach 5.31 degrees Celsius, the
annual average maximum temperature would reach 18.48 degree Celsius, and the annual average
temperature will be 11.90 degree Celsius. These FORECAST values represented 0.77, 0.64, and
0.71-degree Celsius increases, respectively, over the historical averages and a little more than
twice the increase as the NCEI rate suggests (NCEI, n.d.b).
Annual Avg
Annual Avg
Annual Avg
Annual Precip
Min Temp
Max Temp
Temp (°C)
Level (cm)
(°C)
(°C)
Low
3.12
16.65
10.03
63.27
High
6.04
19.83
12.93
88.80
Average
4.54
17.84
11.19
76.09
Median
4.40
17.73
11.08
76.57
Standard Deviation
0.51
0.56
0.51
5.49
Confidence Interval
0.09
0.10
0.09
0.98
r(118) = 0.55,
r(118) = 0.41,
r(118) = 0.50,
r(118) = 0.23,
Correlation
p<0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
p 0.011
2050 Forecast
5.31
18.48
11.90
79.60
Table 1: Contiguous United States Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b). All data
obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations
conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard
deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
Contiguous US
Changes to the monthly precipitation levels for the 48 contiguous states since 1895 did
not result in weak or strong correlations. Precipitation levels for January, February, and July
produced trend lines that sloped downward, with the remaining months showing trend lines
sloping slightly upwards. Overall annual precipitation levels increased over time and produced a
trend line that slopes upward, but with a correlation of r(118) = 0.23, p 0.011. The NCEI
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
33
calculated annual average temperatures to have increased at a rate of 0.36 centimeters per
decade, or an approximate rise of 1.24 centimeters by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). This resulted
in an overall average precipitation level in the year 2050 of 77.33 centimeters (NCEI, n.d.b).
The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted the year 2050 precipitation level will be 79.60
centimeters, 2.27 centimeters greater than the NCEI rate calculation and 3.51 centimeters greater
than the historical precipitation average.
Northeastern United States
Narrowing down the focus to the Northeastern region of the US provided a more focused
look at weather trends affecting New York and filtered out some of the warmer and wetter
sections of the US in order to increase accuracy of results. The same analysis was performed on
Northeastern region as was conducted for the 48 contiguous states. A total of 480 data points
provided an overview of four climatic indicators over the last 120 years (NCEI, n.d.b.).
Temperature trends in the Northeast were once again all positive, except for several more
instances of weak or strong correlations. February average minimum, average maximum, and
average temperatures had positive, weak correlations of r(118) = 0.36, p<0.001; r(118) = 0.35,
p<0.001; and r(118) = 0.36, p<0.001 respectively. June average minimum temperatures
increased over time with a positive correlation of r(118) = 0.34, p<0.001. Both August average
minimum and average temperature increases correlated over time with weak correlations of
r(118) = 0.33, p<0.001 and r(118) = 0.31, p<0.001. November and December temperatures
resulted in higher correlations over time, although none could be considered strong. All three of
the temperature indicators for November resulted in weak correlations, r(118) = 0.36, p<0.001;
r(118) = 0.32, p<0.001; and r(118) = 0.35, p<0.001 for average minimum, average maximum,
and average temperatures. Two December temperature indicators resulted in weak correlations;
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
34
both average minimum and average temperatures resulted in correlations of r(118) = 0.30, p
0.001, although the average maximum temperature for December resulted in a r(118) = 0.28, p
0.002 correlation, just under the weak correlation threshold.
Overall annual averages for all four of the climate indicators for the Northeast resulted in
weak or strong correlations (Table 2). The increases to annual average minimum and maximum
temperature indicators since 1895 resulted in r(118) = 0.54, p<0.001 and r(118) = 0.43, p<0.001
correlations respectively, while the annual average temperature and annual precipitation
indicators increased over time with correlations of r(118) = 0.50, p<0.001 and r(118) = 0.33,
p<0.001 respectively. These results showed that the Northeastern US climate is becoming both
warmer and wetter over time. This region has increased occurrences of strong or weak
correlations between warmer temperatures and time compared to the contiguous United States
and resulted in a 0.20 degrees Celsius per decade increase for all three annual temperature
indicators, also higher than the contiguous US (NCEI, n.d.b). By the year 2050, an increase of
0.70 degrees Celsius can be expected for all three of the temperature indicators, resulting in an
average annual minimum temperature of 2.58 degrees Celsius, an average annual maximum
temperature of 14.45 degrees Celsius, and an annual average temperature of 8.32 degrees
Celsius. These values were still lower than the overall Melillo et al. estimate of a one to twodegree Celsius increase in the US by 2050 (2014). The Microsoft Excel function FORECAST
predicted that by the year 2050, the Northeast annual average minimum temperature will be 2.99
degrees Celsius, the annual average maximum temperature will be 14.23 degrees Celsius, and the
annual average temperature will be 8.61 degrees Celsius. The Microsoft Excel FORECAST
predictions were very comparable to the NCEI rate calculations (NCEI, n.d.b).
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
35
Annual Avg
Annual Avg
Annual
Annual Avg
Min Temp
Max Temp
Precip Level
Temp (°C)
(°C)
(°C)
(cm)
Low
0.06
11.28
5.67
82.19
High
4.11
15.39
9.78
143.94
Average
1.88
13.35
7.62
108.01
Median
1.83
13.28
7.56
107.77
Standard Deviation
0.74
0.73
0.72
11.14
Confidence Interval
0.13
0.13
0.13
1.99
r(118) = 0.54,
r(118) = 0.43,
r(118) = 0.50,
r(118) = 0.33,
Correlation
p<0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
2050 Forecast
2.99
14.23
8.61
118.11
Table 2: Northeast United States Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b). All data
obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations
conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard
deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
Northeast US
Monthly changes to precipitation levels in the Northeast US did not correlate either
weakly or strongly with time. The trend for January, February, and March declined, while April,
May, and June increased slightly. July and August trend lines were flat or nearly flat, while
September, October, November, and December had slight positive trends. Not until the annual
average was analyzed did results show any significant correlation, a weak correlation of r(118) =
0.33, p<0.001. NCEI calculated that precipitation had risen by 1.07 centimeters per decade,
which would result in a 3.75 centimeter increase by the year 2050 and a 2050 annual
precipitation level of 111.86 (NCEI, n.d.b). Using the Microsoft Excel FORECAST function
resulted in a year 2050 predicted annual precipitation level of 118.11, much higher than the
NCEI rate calculation (NCEI, n.d.b).
New York State
An assessment of New York further reduced the study scope and evaluated climate
conditions closer to those that affect New York wine grape growing regions. A total of 480 data
points provided an overview of four climatic indicators over the last 120 years (NCEI, n.d.b.).
Average monthly temperature indicators for New York all showed positive trends, except for
one, the September maximum temperature showed a slightly declining trend. February was the
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
36
month that showed the most correlation between time and temperature increases, all temperature
indicators in this month resulted in weak correlations. The average minimum, average
maximum, and average temperatures resulted in correlations of r(118) = 0.33, p 0.001; r(118) =
0.33, p<0.001; and r(118) = 0.32, p<0.001 respectively. November was the only other month
that resulted in a monthly temperature indicator with either a weak or strong correlation, the
November average temperature resulted in a r(118) = 0.30, p 0.001 correlation. The month of
December showed the next closest correlation with temperature indicator correlations in the mid0.20s. Not until annual averages were analyzed that significant correlations between time and
temperature were revealed, all three temperature indicators showed weak correlations.
The annual New York minimum temperature showed warming over time with a
correlation of r(118) = 0.45, p<0.001 (Table 3). The maximum average temperature for New
York revealed a time/temperature increase correlation of r(118) = 0.37, p<0.001. The overall
New York annual average temperature increased over the years since 1895 with a correlation of
r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001. The NCEI calculated increases for the annual average minimum
temperature and overall average temperature of 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade since the year
1895, which equated to a 0.39-degree Celsius increase for each by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b).
The NCEI calculated a lower trend rate for the annual average maximum temperature, 0.06
degrees Celsius, or a 0.21-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). As a result, in
the year 2050 the annual average minimum temperature would increase to 1.86 degrees Celsius,
the annual average maximum temperature would increase to 12.87 degrees Celsius, and the
overall average temperature would increase to 7.45 degrees Celsius (NCEI, n.d.b). Using the
Microsoft Excel function FORECAST, predictions were calculated for each of the climate
division nine temperature indicators and results were slightly higher than the NCEI projections.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
37
Microsoft Excel FORECAST predicted that in the year 2050, the annual average minimum
temperature will be 2.41 degrees Celsius, the annual average maximum temperature will be
13.45, and the annual average temperature will be 7.93 degrees Celsius. These values
represented between 0.79 and 0.94-degree Celsius increases over the 1895 to 2014 averages.
Annual Avg
Annual Avg
Annual
Annual Avg
Min Temp
Max Temp
Precip Level
Temp (°C)
(°C)
(°C)
(cm)
Low
-0.33
10.39
5.06
80.16
High
3.83
14.89
9.39
141.50
Average
1.47
12.66
7.06
103.54
Median
1.44
12.56
7.00
102.36
Standard Deviation
0.77
0.78
0.75
11.09
Confidence Interval
0.14
0.14
0.13
1.98
r(118) = 0.45,
r(118) = 0.37,
r(118) = 0.42,
r(118) = 0.34,
Correlation
p<0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
2050 Forecast
2.41
13.45
7.93
114.03
Table 3: New York State Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained
from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations
conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard
deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
New York
Precipitation levels showed some difference from the US and Northeast precipitation
climate indicators, none of them exhibited weak or strong correlation of precipitation levels over
time. Several months showed declines in precipitation levels over time, January, February,
March, and July. The remaining months all showed upward precipitation trends over time, but
none were of a significant enough correlation to consider them a weak relationship in this study.
When annual average precipitation levels are evaluated, a weak correlation revealed precipitation
levels to be increasing over time, with a correlation of r(118) = 0.34, p<0.001. The NCEI
calculated an overall precipitation level increase of 1.09 centimeters per decade since the year
1895, representing 3.82-centimeter increase by the year 2050 and a 2050 precipitation level of
107.36 centimeters (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft Excel function FORECAST predicted the New
York year 2050 precipitation level to be 114.03 centimeters, 6.67 centimeters greater than the
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
38
NCEI extrapolated growth rate and 10.49 centimeters greater than the historical average
precipitation level (NCEI, n.d.b).
New York Climate Division Four
Evaluating the specific climate divisions that encompass the New York wine regions
provided analysis of the direct climate measurements that affect New York viticulture. New
York climate division four, the Coastal climate division, is located at the southeastern tip of New
York and covers the entire land area of Long Island as well as the entire Long Island Wine
Region (Figure 5) (NWSCPC, 2005; NYW, 2014). This climate division is unique in that it is
essentially an island, completely surrounded by coastal waters (NWSCPC, 2005). Analyzing the
temperature and precipitation levels in this region resulted in significant differences from the
results for the contiguous US, Northeast US, and New York regions so far reported in this study,
the majority of temperature indicators for each month changed over time and resulted in weak or
strong correlations. January indicators showed correlation much like the other climate division
results, average minimum, average maximum, and average temperatures all revealed trend line
sloping upwards with less than weak correlations for temperatures increasing over time. The
average precipitation indicator trend line sloped down, but with only a poor r(118) = -0.04, p
0.640 correlation. February temperature indicators are where climate division four started to
show differences from other divisions, all three of the temperature indicators showed increases
with strong upward trends and correlations bordering on strong. Average minimum temperature
over time gave a correlation of r(118) = 0.49, p<0.001, average maximum temperature resulted
in a correlation of r(118) = 0.44, p<0.001, and average temperature correlated at r(118) = 0.47,
p<0.001. Precipitation showed a downward sloping trend line and although it was a less than
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
39
weak correlation, it resulted in the strongest of individual precipitation level increases over time
with a correlation of r(118) = -0.23, p 0.011.
March once again showed correlations for the three temperature indicators, although they
were weak. Average minimum, average maximum, and average temperatures increased over
time and gave correlations of r(118) = 0.39, p<0.001; r(118) = 0.35, p<0.001; and r(118) = 0.38,
p<0.001 respectively. Changes in climate division four precipitation levels in January showed
no significant correlation over time. April correlations for temperature increases actually
increased even further than February, resulting in strong correlations for minimum and average
temperature, r(118) = 0.55, p<0.001 and r(118) = 0.521, p<0.001 respectively. Average
temperature increases showed a slightly less than strong correlation of r(118) = 0.46, p<0.001.
The correlation of precipitation changes over time was inconclusive. May showed less of a
correlation amongst the indicators, only increases to the average minimum temperature gave
correlation, r(118) = 0.43, p<0.001. The trend lines for the other three indicators sloped
upwards, but only average temperature came close to a weak correlation, with a r(118) = 0.29, p
0.001. June, July, and August return to strong correlations of temperature increasing over time.
June average minimum temperature resulted in a strong correlation of r(118) = 0.59, p<0.001;
July average minimum and average temperatures gave strong correlations; and all three of the
temperature indicators for August exceeded the strong correlation threshold. Precipitation
changes for these three months showed no significant correlation of change over time, although
notably the precipitation levels for July and August resulted in downward sloping trend lines.
The climate indicators in September showed weak correlations for minimum and average
temperatures, while October showed no significant indicators at all. November continued the
climate division four trend of temperature correlations over time, with all three providing just
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
40
less than strong correlations between r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001 for average maximum temperature
and r(118) = 0.46, p<0.001 correlations for both average minimum and average temperatures
over time. The three temperature indicators for December also increased over time and showed
weak correlations, ranging from r(118) = 0.38, p<0.001 to r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001.
After the evaluation of New York climate division four results for individual months in
the years 1895 to 2014, the annual results were not surprising (Table 4) (Appendix 1). The three
temperature climate indicators resulted in significantly upward sloping trend lines and strong
correlations. The annual average minimum temperature increased over time with a strong r(118)
= 0.75, p<0.001 correlation. The annual average maximum temperature increased over time with
a strong correlation of r(118) = 0.66, p<0.001 and the annual average temperature increased over
time with a strong correlation of r(118) = 0.72, p<0.001. The NCEI calculated an annual average
minimum, average maximum, and overall average temperature increase of 0.12 degrees Celsius
per decade since the year 1895 (NCEI, n.d.b). This rate of increase would result in an overall
increase of 0.42 degrees Celsius by the year 2050, potentially raising the annual average
minimum temperature to 6.37 degrees Celsius, the annual average maximum temperature to
15.86 degrees Celsius, and the annual average temperature to 11.12 degrees Celsius (NCEI,
n.d.b). The Microsoft Excel function FORECAST predicted a greater rise in each of these
climate division four temperature values, predicting the year 2050 annual average minimum
temperature to reach 7.77 degrees Celsius, annual average maximum temperature to reach 16.96
degrees Celsius, and the annual average temperature to reach 12.37 degrees Celsius. This was an
increase of over 1.5 degrees Celsius per indicator and near the maximum values for each
indicator. The NCEI calculated an overall precipitation level increase of 0.38 centimeters per
decade since the year 1895, translating to a 1.33-centimeter increase in precipitation in the year
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
41
2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). According to the NCEI rate of increase, the annual precipitation level
would reach 115.35 centimeters (n.d.b). The Microsoft Excel function FORECAST predicted a
higher value for precipitation than the NCEI value, predicting that the annual precipitation level
in the year 2050 will be 117.74 centimeters.
Annual Avg
Annual Avg
Annual
Annual Avg
Min Temp
Max Temp
Precip Level
Temp (°C)
(°C)
(°C)
(cm)
Low
3.44
13.11
8.28
72.42
High
8.44
17.67
13.06
158.57
Average
5.95
15.44
10.70
114.02
Median
5.92
15.39
10.64
111.57
Standard Deviation
0.88
0.84
0.85
15.43
Confidence Interval
0.16
0.15
0.15
2.76
r(118) = 0.75,
r(118) = 0.66,
r(118) = 0.72,
r(118) = 0.09,
Correlation
p<0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
p 0.340
2050 Forecast
7.77
16.96
12.37
117.74
Table 4: New York Climate Division Four Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b). All
data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical
calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points,
standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
New York – CD4
In addition to monthly and annual climate indicator analysis, evaluations of the growing
and dormant season were conducted for all four New York climate divisions. The growing
season for grape vines is considered to be the months of April to October (seven months), while
the dormant season is comprised of November through March (five months) (Jones et al., 2005).
By analyzing these two periods as single entities, one can gain an understanding of climate
changes during critical times of the vine life cycle (Jones et al., 2005). For the months of April
through October in New York climate division four, the growing season, all three of the
temperature indicator trend lines sloped upwards with strong correlations between warming and
time (Table 5) (Appendix 2). The growing season average minimum temperature increased over
time with an r(118) = 0.72, p<0.001 correlation, the average maximum temperature increased
and correlated at r(118) = 0.57, p<0.001, and the average temperature increased with a
correlation of r(118) = 0.67, p<0.001. The NCEI provided a growth rate of 0.17 degrees Celsius
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
42
per decade for the average minimum temperature during this time period, or an increase of 0.60
degrees Celsius by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). For the average maximum temperature during
the growing season, the NCEI growth rate is 0.11 degrees Celsius, or a 0.39-degree Celsius
increase by 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). The growing season average temperature for climate decision
four climbed by 0.17 degrees Celsius per decade and will increase by 0.98 degrees Celsius by the
year 2050. The NCEI calculations resulted in a predicted growing season average minimum
temperature of 12.92 degrees Celsius, an average maximum temperature of 22.34 degrees
Celsius, and an average temperature of 17.92 degrees Celsius in the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b).
Microsoft FORECAST calculations predicted the following for average minimum temperature,
average maximum temperature, and average temperature respectively; 13.50 degrees Celsius,
23.14 degrees Celsius, and 18.31 degrees Celsius. These FORECAST predictions are between
1.19 and 1.58 degrees Celsius greater than the historical average.
Avg Min
Avg Max
Avg Temp
Precip Level
Temp (°C)
Temp (°C)
(°C)
(cm)
9.89
20.06
14.94
40.84
14.17
24.44
19.28
115.85
11.92
21.95
16.94
66.10
11.89
21.94
16.94
63.89
0.80
0.75
0.75
13.01
0.14
0.13
0.13
2.33
r(118) = 0.72,
r(118) = 0.57,
r(118) = 0.67,
r(118) = 0.14,
Correlation
p<0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
p 0.128
2050 Forecast
13.50
23.14
18.31
71.09
Table 5: New York Climate Division Four Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season of
April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental
Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval
based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
New York – CD4Growing Season
Low
High
Average
Median
Standard Deviation
Confidence Interval
Precipitation levels during the growing season showed an upward sloping trend line, but a
low correlation of r(118) = 0.14, p 0.128. The NCEI calculated a 0.53-centimeter increase in
precipitation per decade, which would result in a year 2050 precipitation level of 67.96
centimeters based on the historical average of 66.10. The Microsoft FORECAST function
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
43
predicted a 2050 precipitation level of 71.09, considerably greater than the historical average
(4.99 centimeters more) or the NCEI calculation (3.13 centimeters more).
For the dormant season months of November to March in New York climate division
four, all three of the temperature indicators once again showed strong correlation for warming
over time (Table 6) (Appendix 3). The NCEI calculated a 0.22-degree Celsius increase per
decade for the dormant season average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature,
and average temperature, with strong correlations of r(117) = 0.57, p<0.001; r(117) = 0.52,
p<0.001; and r(117) = 0.55, p<0.001 respectively (NCEI, n.d.b). This resulted in a 0.77 DegreeCelsius increase for each temperature indicator by the year 2050 and a 2050 average minimum
temperature of -1.65 degrees Celsius, a 2050 average maximum temperature of 7.10 degrees
Celsius, and a 2050 average temperature of 2.73 degrees Celsius. The Microsoft FORECAST
function predicted an average minimum temperature of -0.29 degrees Celsius, a 2050 average
maximum temperature of 8.27 degrees Celsius, and a 2050 average temperature of 3.99 degrees
Celsius. The FORECAST predictions represent 1.94, 2.03, and 2.13-degree Celsius increases
over historical temperature indicator averages. Precipitation levels for climate division four
revealed a downward sloping trend line for the years 1896-2014. The starting year for dormant
season evaluation is 1896 because the months cross into the next year, so statistical calculations
for dormant season climate indicators were calculated using 119 data points instead of the 120
used for the growing season. The NCEI calculated rate of decrease for precipitation was 0.15
centimeters per decade, or a decrease of 0.53 centimeters by the year 2050, and resulted in a year
2050 precipitation level of 40.50 centimeters (NCEI, n.d.b). Using the Microsoft FORECAST
function provided a prediction of 45.97 centimeters for the year 2050.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
44
Avg Min
Avg Max
Avg Temp
Precip Level
Temp (°C)
Temp (°C)
(°C)
(cm)
-6.33
3.00
-1.61
27.56
1.22
10.78
6.00
70.51
-2.42
6.33
1.96
47.89
-2.28
6.28
2.06
47.09
1.35
1.37
1.34
9.51
0.24
0.25
0.24
1.71
r(117) = 0.57,
r(117) = 0.52,
r(117) = 0.55, r(117) = -0.07,
Correlation
p<0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
p 0.428
2050 Forecast
-0.29
8.27
3.99
45.97
Table 6: New York Climate Division Four Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant
Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center
for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft
Excel. Confidence interval based on 119 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of
0.05.
New York – CD4Dormant Season
Low
High
Average
Median
Standard Deviation
Confidence Interval
Overall, climate division four provided interesting results. The majority of monthly
temperature indicators and all of the annual temperature showed weak to strong correlations for
temperatures increasing between the years 1895 to 2014. When temperature indicators were
grouped and averaged into the growing and dormant season for grape vines, all showed increases
in temperature over time with strong statistical correlations. By the year 2050, Microsoft Excel
predicted there will be between a one and two-degree Celsius increase for each temperature
indicator. This falls in line with the one to two-degree Celsius increase for the US that Melillo et
al. (2014) predicted.
New York Climate Division Five
New York climate division five, the Hudson Valley, is located on either side of the
Hudson River at the south east border of New York, just above New York City, and
encompasses the entire Hudson River Wine Region (Figure 5) (NWSCPC, 2005; NYW, 2014).
New York climate division five did not show as strong correlations between temperature
increase and time as climate division four, but did present correlations of interest. As with the
other climate regions evaluated so far, evaluation of temperature and precipitation in climate
division five resulted in upward sloping trend lines for all temperature indicators that indicated
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
45
temperature was increasing over time for the years 1895 to 2014. Precipitation trend lines also
showed increases in precipitation over time for most months, except February where
precipitation showed a noticeable decrease over time. Individually, several months gave weak
correlations for temperature increasing over time. The month of February saw weak correlations
for all three temperature indicators increasing over time, average minimum temperature gave a
correlation of r(118) = 0.36, p<0.001, average maximum temperature correlated at r(118) = 0.39,
p<0.001, and the average temperature resulted in a correlation of r(118) = 0.38, p<0.001. April
was the next month that showed weak correlation, with the average temperature increase
producing a correlation of r(118) = 0.30, p 0.001. Of note, the average minimum and maximum
temperature indicators resulted in correlations of r(118) = 0.28, p 0.002, just under the threshold
to be considered a weak correlation. The average minimum temperature in June increased over
time with a correlation of r(118) = 0.36, p<0.001, but the other temperature indicators were not
statistically strong enough to be significant. August is the next month that resulted in statistical
significance for an increasing temperature over time, with all three of the temperature indicators
giving weak correlations. The average minimum temperature increased over time with a weak
correlation of r(118) = 0.38, p<0.001, the average maximum temperature increased with a weak
correlation of r(118) = 0.32, p<0.001, and the average temperature increased over time with a
weak correlation of r(118) = 0.37, p<0.001. September and October temperature increases
showed no weak or strong correlations over time. Temperature increase over time showed weak
correlation for the month of November, average minimum temperatures correlated at r(118) =
0.38, p<0.001, average maximum temperatures showed a correlation of r(118) = 0.32, p<0.001,
and overall average temperature resulted in a r(118) = 0.36, p<0.001 correlation. Temperature
indicators for December showed a weak correlation for an increasing average minimum
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
46
temperature over time (r(118) = 0.30, p<0.001), while the average maximum and average
temperature were slightly below the minimum correlation considered as weak, r(118) = 0.27, p
0.003 and r(118) = 0.29, p 0.001 respectively.
The overall annual temperature averages for climate division five all showed upward
sloping trend lines with weak to strong correlations (Table 7) (Appendix 4). Overall, the average
minimum temperature for climate division five increased since 1895 with a strong correlation of
r(118) = 0.55, p<0.001. The average maximum temperature increased since 1895 with a
correlation that bordered on strong, r(118) = 0.49, p<0.001. The overall average temperature for
climate division five also increased since 1895, with a strong correlation of r(118) = 0.54,
p<0.001. The NCEI calculated the climate division five rate of increase for all the three
temperature indicators to have been 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade (n.d.b). This calculated to a
0.39-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050, potentially raising the average minimum
temperature to 3.16 degrees Celsius, the average maximum temperature to 14.69 degrees Celsius,
and the overall average temperature up to 8.93 degrees Celsius.
Annual Avg
Annual Avg
Annual
Annual Avg
Min Temp
Max Temp
Precip Level
Temp (°C)
(°C)
(°C)
(cm)
Low
0.83
12.06
6.44
72.19
High
5.39
16.56
10.94
159.89
Average
2.77
14.30
8.54
107.79
Median
2.67
14.22
8.44
106.63
Standard Deviation
0.81
0.79
0.77
15.11
Confidence Interval
0.14
0.14
0.14
2.70
r(118) = 0.55,
r(118) = 0.49,
r(118) = 0.54,
r(118) = 0.27,
Correlation
p<0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
p 0.003
2050 Forecast
3.98
15.36
9.68
118.94
Table 7: New York Climate Division Five Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b).
All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical
calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points,
standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
New York – CD5
The Microsoft Excel function FORECAST predicted a greater rise in each of these
climate division five temperature values, predicting the year 2050 annual average minimum
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
47
temperature to reach 3.89 degrees Celsius, annual average maximum temperature to reach 15.36
degrees Celsius, and the annual average temperature to reach 9.68 degrees Celsius. This was an
increase of over 1.0 degree Celsius per indicator, a slightly lower increase than the 1.5-degree
Celsius increase seen in climate division 4. The annual precipitation level for climate division
five also resulted in an upward sloping trend line, with a correlation just under the threshold for a
weak correlation, r(118) = 0.27, p 0.003. For climate division five, the NCEI calculated an
overall annual precipitation level increase of 1.17 centimeters per decade since the year 1895,
translating to a 4.09-centimeter increase in precipitation by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b).
According to the NCEI rate of increase, the annual precipitation level would reach 111.88
centimeters in the year 2050 (n.d.b). The Microsoft Excel function FORECAST predicted a
higher value for precipitation, predicting that the annual average precipitation level in the year
2050 will be 118.94 centimeters.
For the months of April through October in New York climate division five, the growing
season, all three of the temperature indicator trend lines sloped upwards with weak correlations
between warming and time (Table 8) (Appendix 5). When evaluated over the years 1895 to
2014, the average minimum temperature resulted in a 0.11-degree Celsius increase per decade, as
calculated by NCEI (n.d.b), with a correlation of r(118) = 0.45, p<0.001, just under the strong
correlation threshold. This resulted in a 0.39-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 or a 9.73
degrees Celsius in 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted the average growing
season minimum temperature to be 10.22 in the year 2050, 0.88 degrees greater than the
historical growing season average. The growing season average maximum and average
temperatures warmed since 1895 at a rate of 0.06 degrees Celsius as calculated by NCEI (n.d.b),
with correlations of r(118) = 0.33, p<0.001 and r(118) = 0.43, p<0.001 respectively. This
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
48
represented a 0.21-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 for both, or 22.07 and 15.81 degrees
Celsius respectively in the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted these two
temperature indicators to be 22.54 and 16.37 degrees Celsius respectively in the year 2050, 0.86
and 0.77-degree Celsius increases respectively. The growing season precipitation levels since
1895 also showed increases, with a correlation of r(118) = 0.27, p 0.002, just under the threshold
for a weak correlation. NCEI calculated the rate of increase for precipitation to be 0.94
centimeters per decade, or a 3.29-centimeter increase by the year 2050 (n.d.b). Microsoft
FORECAST predicted the year 2050 precipitation level to be 76.64 centimeters, nine centimeters
greater than the historical average and 5.71 centimeters greater than the NCEI rate prediction
(NCEI, n.d.b).
Avg Min
Avg Max
Precip Level
Avg Temp (°C)
Temp (°C)
Temp (°C)
(cm)
7.67
19.89
13.78
35.15
11.33
23.78
17.39
113.92
9.34
21.86
15.60
67.64
9.39
21.92
15.61
66.10
0.70
0.74
0.66
12.07
0.13
0.13
0.12
2.16
r(118) = 0.45,
r(118) = 0.34,
r(118) = 0.43,
r(118) = 0.27,
Correlation
p<0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
p 0.002
2050 Forecast
10.22
22.54
16.37
76.64
Table 8: New York Climate Division Five Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season
of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel.
Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
New York – CD5Growing Season
Low
High
Average
Median
Standard Deviation
Confidence Interval
The dormant season months of November to March showed similar results. Average
minimum, average maximum, and average temperatures all increased over time since 1895 by
0.17 degrees Celsius per decade, as calculated by NCEI, and showed correlations of r(117) =
0.40, p<0.001; r(117) = 0.41, p<0.001; and r(117) = 0.42, p<0.001 respectively (Table 9)
(Appendix 6) (NCEI, n.d.b). According to the NCEI growth rate, the temperature indicators will
gain 0.60 degrees Celsius and the average minimum, average maximum, and average
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
49
temperatures values will be -5.83, 4.33, and -0.75 degrees Celsius in the year 2050 respectively
(NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted these three temperature indicators to be -4.80,
5.28, and 0.24 degrees Celsius in the year 2050, or an approximate one-degree greater increase
over the NCEI prediction and 1.63, 1.55, and 1.59-degree increase over historical averages.
Precipitation levels for the climate division five dormant season showed an increase since 1895
as well, with an NCEI growth rate of 0.18 centimeters per decade and a low r(117) = 0.09, p
0.312 correlation (NCEI, n.d.b). NCEI predicted a 0.63-centimeter increase and Microsoft
FORECAST predicted a 1.87-centimeter increase by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b).
Avg Min
Avg Max
Precip Level
Avg Temp (°C)
Temp (°C)
Temp (°C)
(cm)
-10.56
0.33
-4.72
27.31
-2.17
8.39
3.11
59.16
-6.43
3.73
-1.35
40.21
-6.39
3.67
-1.33
39.95
1.46
1.36
1.38
7.28
0.26
0.24
0.25
1.31
r(117) = 0.40,
r(117) = 0.41,
r(117) = 0.42,
r(117) = 0.09,
Correlation
p<0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
p 0.312
2050 Forecast
-4.80
5.28
0.24
42.08
Table 9: New York Climate Division Five Annual Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant
Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel.
Confidence interval based on 119 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
New York – CD5Dormant Season
Low
High
Average
Median
Standard Deviation
Confidence Interval
Overall, climate division five resulted in a significant number of climate indicators that
produced weak or strong correlations over time. The majority of monthly temperature indicators
and all of the annual temperature showed weak to strong correlations for temperatures that have
increased between the years 1895 to 2014. Temperature indicators when grouped and averaged
into grape vine growing and dormant seasons, all showed increases in temperature over time
with weak correlations. By the year 2050, Microsoft Excel predicted there will be between a
0.77 and 1.5-degree Celsius increase for each temperature indicator, with the dormant season
producing greater increases in temperature.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
50
New York Climate Division Nine
New York climate division nine, the Great Lakes, is located on the western border of
New York and extends in a thin strip along the New York border from Alexandria Bay in the
north, down below Lake Ontario, over to Niagara Falls, and then down to the Pennsylvania
border under Lake Erie (Figure 5) (NWSCPC, 2005; NYW, 2014). This climate division
encompasses both the Niagara Escarpment and Lake Erie Wine Regions, which are located at the
far western edge of New York (Figure 1) (NWSCPC, 2005; NYW, 2014). An evaluation of the
480 data points provided an overview of four climatic indicators over the last 120 years in this
climate division (NCEI, n.d.b.). Results showed no strong correlation between any of the
climate indicator changes over time. Temperature trend lines for the month of January were
essentially flat, with very slight upward inclines. The February average minimum and overall
average temperatures showed weak correlations for increases since 1895, while the average
maximum fell just short of a weak correlation for its increase over time at r(118) = 0.29, p 0.002.
March, April, and May temperature indicators all resulted in upward sloping trend lines, but
none reached the threshold to be considered a weak correlation. The month of June temperature
indicators all resulted in positive sloping trend lines, but only one resulted in a weak correlation,
the average minimum temperature gave a correlation of r(118) = 0.33, p<0.001. The July
average maximum temperature resulted in a downward sloping trend line, the first of this study
for any temperature indicator, but its correlation over time only reached r(118) = -0.07, p 0.450.
The other temperature indicators in July had upward sloping trend lines, but did not reach the
weak correlation threshold. August saw all temperature trend lines return to sloping upwards,
while the average minimum indicator was the only one to reach a weak correlation, with a r(118)
= 0.30, p 0.001. September revealed the second downward sloping trend line in this study, for
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
51
the average maximum temperature, reaching essentially the same correlation level as in June,
r(118) = 0.33, p 0.469. The other two temperature indicators for September showed positive
sloping trend lines, but neither reached the weak correlation minimum. October trend lines were
also upward sloping, but with low correlations with time. All three November temperature
indicators were obviously upward sloping, but the increases over time just missed the weak
correlation threshold, with average minimum and overall average temperatures correlating at
r(118) = 0.28, p 0.008 and r(118) = 0.28, p 0.002 and the average maximum temperature
correlated at r(118) = 0.27, p 0.003. December fared much the same, with average minimum and
overall average temperatures that correlated at r(118) = 0.25, p 0.006 and r(118) = 0.25, p 0.007,
while the average maximum temperature correlated at r(118) = 0.24, p 0.010. Monthly
precipitation levels resulted in downward sloping trend lines for the months of January,
February, and March with no significant correlations with time. Precipitation levels for the
months of April through August revealed upward sloping trend lines, but no significant
correlations with time. September came close to reaching the weak correlation threshold, with
precipitation levels increasing since 1895 with a correlation of r(118) = 0.27, p 0.002. October,
November, and December precipitation trend lines all sloped upwards, but they also did not have
sufficient correlations with time to be considered weak correlations.
Evaluation of climate division nine annual temperature and precipitation measurements
since 1895 resulted in increases for all indicators over time, with all correlations exceeding the
threshold to be considered a weak correlation (Table 10) (Appendix 7). The annual average
minimum temperature increased since 1895, with a statistical correlation of r(118) = 0.48,
p<0.001, just beneath the strong correlation threshold. The annual average maximum
temperature indicator also produced an upward sloping trend line and increased since 1895, with
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
52
a correlation of r(118) = 0.31, p 0.001. The annual average temperature showed an increase over
time as well, with a correlation of r(118) = 0.41, p<0.001. The NCEI calculated the climate
division nine rate of increase for annual average minimum and average temperatures to be 0.11
degrees Celsius per decade (n.d.b). The annual average minimum and average temperatures
increase would result in a 0.39-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050, potentially raising the
average minimum temperature to 2.92 degrees Celsius and the overall average temperature up to
8.13 degrees Celsius. NCEI calculated the annual average maximum temperature increase to be
0.06 degrees Celsius per decade (n.d.b). This calculates to a 0.21-degree Celsius increase by the
year 2050, potentially raising the average maximum temperature to 13.16 degrees Celsius.
Annual Avg
Annual Avg
Annual
Annual Avg
Min Temp
Max Temp
Precip Level
Temp (°C)
(°C)
(°C)
(cm)
Low
0.50
10.61
5.56
70.79
High
4.94
15.28
10.11
120.78
Average
2.53
12.95
7.74
96.24
Median
2.50
12.86
7.67
95.14
Standard Deviation
0.81
0.78
0.77
10.59
Confidence Interval
0.14
0.14
0.14
1.90
r(118) = 0.48,
r(118) = 0.31,
r(118) = 0.41,
r(118) = 0.42,
Correlation
p<0.001
p 0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
2050 Forecast
3.60
13.62
8.61
108.31
Table 10: New York Climate Division Nine Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b).
All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical
calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points,
standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
New York – CD9
Once again, the Microsoft Excel FORECAST function predicted a greater rise in each of
these climate division nine temperature values, predicting the year 2050 annual average
minimum temperature to reach 3.60 degrees Celsius, annual average maximum temperature to
reach 13.62 degrees Celsius, and the annual average temperature to reach 8.61 degrees Celsius.
This represented an increase of over 1.07 degrees Celsius for the annual average minimum
temperature, an increase of 0.67 degrees Celsius for the annual average maximum temperature,
and an increase of 0.87 degrees Celsius for the annual average temperature.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
53
Annual precipitation levels for this climate division reached the highest correlation level
of all climate region precipitation levels reported so far, with an upward sloping trend line and a
weak correlation of r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001. The NCEI calculated a 1.27-centimeter per decade
increase since the year 1895 for climate division nine, equating to a 4.45-centimeter increase in
precipitation by the year 2050 (NCEI, n.d.b). This would result in a climate division nine annual
precipitation level of 100.69 centimeters in the year 2050 (n.d.b). The Microsoft Excel
FORECAST function predicted the precipitation level for climate division nine to be 108.31
centimeters in the year 2050.
Avg Min
Avg Max
Avg Temp
Precip Level
Temp (°C)
Temp (°C)
(°C)
(cm)
7.22
18.44
13.00
40.23
10.78
22.61
16.44
80.09
9.06
20.59
14.83
59.23
9.08
20.67
14.83
59.13
0.73
0.79
0.72
9.39
0.13
0.14
0.13
1.68
r(118) = 0.42,
r(118) = 0.11, r(118) = 0.27, r(118) = 0.38,
Correlation
p<0.001
p 0.220
p 0.002
p<0.001
2050 Forecast
9.89
20.84
15.37
68.96
Table 11: New York Climate Division Nine Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing
Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel.
Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
New York – CD9Growing Season
Low
High
Average
Median
Standard Deviation
Confidence Interval
Analysis of the climate division nine growing season resulted in temperatures increasing
over time as well, with average minimum temperature the only temperature indicator to result in
a weak or strong correlation, with a r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001 weak correlation (Table 11)
(Appendix 8). The average maximum temperature actually resulted in a flat trend line with a
growth rate per decade of 0.00 degrees Celsius as calculated by NCEI (n.d.b). The average
temperature for the climate division nine growing season resulted in a low 0.06-degree Celsius
growth rate per decade and a correlation slightly lower than the weak correlation threshold,
r(118) = 0.27, p 0.002 (CEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted similar low
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
54
growth rates, with an average minimum temperature of 9.89 degrees Celsius, average maximum
temperature of 20.84 degrees Celsius, and an average temperature of 15.37 degrees Celsius in the
year 2050. The growing season precipitation level did increase over time since 1895, with a
correlation of r(118) = 0.38, p<0.001 and a substantial NCEI calculated growth rate of 1.02
centimeters per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). This would result in a year 2050 precipitation level of
62.80 centimeters, a 3.06-centimeter increase over the historical average. The Microsoft
FORECAST function predicted a 68.96-centimeter precipitation level in the year 2050, a 9.73centimeter increase over the historical average.
Avg Min
Avg Max
Avg Temp
Precip Level
Temp (°C)
Temp (°C)
(°C)
(cm)
-10.56
-0.89
-5.44
24.05
-2.11
7.00
2.44
51.94
-6.59
2.25
-2.17
37.06
-6.56
2.22
-2.22
36.88
1.45
1.37
1.39
5.60
0.26
0.25
0.25
1.01
r(117) = 0.33, r(117) = 0.32, r(117) = 0.33,
r(117) = 0.16,
Correlation
p<0.001
p<0.001
p<0.001
p 0.092
2050 Forecast
-5.28
3.46
-0.90
39.46
Table 12: New York Climate Division Nine Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant
Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center
for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft
Excel. Confidence interval based on 119 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of
0.05.
New York – CD9Dormant Season
Low
High
Average
Median
Standard Deviation
Confidence Interval
Dormant season analysis in climate division nine resulted in all three temperature
indicators increasing over time, with 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade growth rates as calculated
by NCEI and showing weak correlations (Table 12) (Appendix 9) (NCEI, n.d.b). A 0.11 degrees
Celsius per decade growth rate resulted in a 0.39-degree Celsius increase over the historical
average for each temperature indicator by the year 2050, or an average minimum temperature of
-6.20 degrees Celsius, an average maximum temperature of 2.64 degrees Celsius, and an average
temperature of -1.78 degrees Celsius (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST predicted an
average minimum temperature of -5.28 degrees Celsius, an average maximum temperature of
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
55
3.46 degrees Celsius, and an average temperature of -0.90 degrees Celsius. These represented
1.31, 1.21, and 2.40-degree Celsius increases over the dormant season historical averages.
Precipitation analysis did not reveal a high precipitation increase over time as the growing season
did, it did have an upward sloping trend line, but it increased by 0.20 centimeters per decade as
calculated by the NCEI, or 0.7 centimeters by the year 2050 (n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST
function predicted a year 2050 precipitation level of 39.46 centimeters, a 2.4-centimeter increase
over the historical average and a 1.7-centimeter increase over the NCEI growth rate prediction
(NCEI, n.d.b).
Overall, climate division nine resulted in all annual climate indicators producing
significant correlations for their increases over time. The annual temperature indicators resulted
in 0.67 to 1.08 degrees Celsius predicted increases over historical values by the year 2050. The
annual precipitation levels resulted in the highest correlation of all climate divisions, although
weak, and resulted in predicted levels 12.07 centimeters greater than historical levels. Twothirds of climate division nine temperature indicators, when grouped and averaged into growing
and dormant seasons, showed increases in temperature over time with weak correlations. By the
year 2050, Microsoft Excel predicted there will be between 1.21 and 2.40-degree Celsius
increase for each temperature indicator in the dormant season. For the growing season,
Microsoft FORECAST predicted a nearly ten-centimeter increase in precipitation by the year
2050.
New York Climate Division Ten
New York climate division ten, the Central Lakes, is located in the center of the western
half of New York, encompasses all of the New York Finger Lakes and subsequently the entire
Finger Lakes Wine Region (Figure 1 and Figure 5) (NWSCPC, 2005; NYW, 2014). This
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
56
climate division is unique among the New York climate divisions evaluated in this study in that
it contains a large number of wineries, 85% of New York wine is created in the Finger Lakes
Wine Region (Hira & Gabreldar, 2013). Climate division ten was also evaluated using four
climatic indicators over a time period of 120 years, providing 480 data points in all for a climatic
overview of this region (NCEI, n.d.b.). The monthly values for each of the three temperature
indicators, average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, and average
temperature did not show any significant correlation over time. January temperature indicators
resulted in nearly flat trend lines and correlations just above zero. February temperature values
did increase over time, with upward sloping trend lines and correlations that fell just below the
weak correlation threshold, r(118) = 0.28, p 0.002 for average minimum temperature, r(118) =
0.25, p 0.006 for average maximum temperature, and r(118) = 0.27, p 0.003 for average
temperature. March, April, and May all showed increases for the three temperature values over
time, but correlations were not high enough to be considered a weak correlation. June
temperature values showed a deviation from the earlier months, average minimum and average
temperatures increased over time with low correlations, but the average maximum temperature
produced a flat trend line and a correlation of r(118) = 0.00, p 0.990 showing no real change in
value over time. July temperature values showed two differences from earlier months, the
average maximum and average temperatures showed a significant downward sloping trend line
revealing that these values decreased over time since 1895. Their correlations were still not
enough to be considered weak or strong. The trend line for the July average minimum
temperature was essentially flat, with a low correlation of r(118) = 0.03, p 0.736. August
average minimum and average temperatures also showed nearly flat trend lines with low
correlations, r(118) = 0.16, p 0.089 and r(118) = 0.08, p 0.414 respectively, while the August
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
57
average maximum temperature had a slightly downward sloping trend line with a low r(118) = 0.01, p 0.941 correlation. September temperature trend lines did not result in much change
either; the average minimum temperature trend line was essentially flat with a low r(118) = 0.05,
p 0.571 correlation and the average maximum temperature and average temperature indicators
show downward sloping trend lines with low correlations, r(118) = -0.14, p 0.125 and r(118) = 0.06, p 0.508 respectively. October temperature indicators showed essentially the same results
as September, except the average temperature returned to a slightly increase over time. All of
November and December temperatures increased over time, produced noticeably upward sloping
trend lines, with correlations around 0.20.
Annual Avg
Annual Avg
Annual
Annual Avg
Min Temp
Max Temp
Precip Level
Temp (°C)
(°C)
(°C)
(cm)
Low
0.67
11.00
5.89
69.27
High
4.72
15.39
10.06
118.39
Average
2.46
13.19
7.83
89.99
Median
2.44
13.11
7.78
90.25
Standard Deviation
0.78
0.78
0.75
11.16
Confidence Interval
0.14
0.14
0.13
2.00
r(118) = 0.32,
r(118) = 0.20,
r(118) = 0.27,
r(118) = 0.37,
Correlation
p<0.001
p 0.031
p 0.003
p<0.001
2050 Forecast
3.15
13.61
8.38
101.21
Table 13: New York Climate Division Ten Annual Temperature and Precipitation (NCEI, n.d.b).
All data obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical
calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel. Confidence interval based on 120 sample points,
standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
New York – CD10
Monthly precipitation levels for climate division ten revealed no weak or strong
correlation when evaluated over time. January and February precipitation levels decreased over
time from 1895, with low correlations of r(118) = -0.02, p 0.853 and r(118) = -0.03, p 0.741
respectively. March precipitation levels were essentially unchanged over time, with a correlation
of r(118) = 0.01, p 0.895. Not until the month of August did precipitation levels increase
substantially enough to produce a correlation close to what could be considered weak, with a
r(118) = 0.26, p 0.105. October, November, and December all produced precipitation levels that
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
58
increased over time, showing upward sloping trend lines, but produced low correlations that
hovered around 0.20.
Evaluating annual temperature indicators for climate division ten resulted in all upward
sloping trend lines and produced the first weak correlation. The annual average minimum
temperature increased by 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade, according to the NCEI and produced a
weak correlation of r(118) = 0.32, p<0.001 (Table 13) (Appendix 10) (NCEI, n.d.b). This rate of
increase resulted in a 0.21-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 or a 2050 average minimum
temperature level of 2.67 degrees Celsius (NCEI, n.d.b). Annual average maximum temperature
and annual average temperature produced correlations of r(118) = 0.20, p 0.031 and r(118) =
0.27, p 0.003 respectively and increased by 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade (NCEI, n.d.b).
These rates of increase also result in 0.21-degree Celsius increase by the year 2050 providing a
calculated annual average maximum temperature in the year 2050 of 2.78 degrees Celsius and an
annual average temperature of 8.04 degrees Celsius. Using the Microsoft FORECAST function
provided a year 2050 prediction of 3.15 degrees Celsius for the annual average minimum
temperature, 13.61 degrees Celsius for the annual average maximum temperature, and 8.38
degrees for the annual average temperature. These represented 0.69, 0.42, and 0.55-degree
Celsius increases over the historical average for the three temperature indicators respectively.
Annual precipitation levels increased over time, resulting in a significantly upward sloping trend
line, a r(118) = 0.37, p<0.001 correlation, and a NCEI calculated 1.17–centimeter increase per
decade. This rate of increase resulted in a 4.10-centimeter increase in precipitation by the year
2050 or a 2050 precipitation level of 94.10 centimeters. The Microsoft FORECAST function
predicted the year 2050 precipitation level will be 102.21 centimeters, 11.22 centimeters greater
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
59
than the historical average and an 8.11 centimeter increase over the NCEI calculated rate of
increase.
Avg Min
Avg Max
Avg Temp
Precip Level
Temp (°C)
Temp (°C)
(°C)
(cm)
7.11
18.67
13.11
40.03
10.50
22.78
16.50
82.02
8.86
20.82
14.84
58.79
8.89
20.78
14.81
58.45
0.71
0.82
0.72
9.91
0.13
0.15
0.13
1.77
r(118) = 0.18,
r(118) = 0.00,
r(118) = 0.09,
r(118) = 0.30,
Correlation
p 0.044
p 0.985
p 0.347
p<0.001
2050 Forecast
9.22
20.82
15.01
67.05
Table 14: New York Climate Division Ten Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing Season
of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel.
Confidence interval based on 120 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
New York – CD10Growing Season
Low
High
Average
Median
Standard Deviation
Confidence Interval
Analysis of the climate division ten growing season resulted in no significant correlation
for the three temperature indicators. The annual average minimum temperature showed an
upward sloping trend line with a NCEI calculated rate of increase of 0.06 degrees Celsius, or a
temperature of 9.01 degrees Celsius by the year 2050 (Table 14) (Appendix 11) (NCEI, n.d.b).
Microsoft FORECAST predicted a year 2050 average minimum temperature of 9.22, a slight
increase over the NCEI prediction. The annual average maximum temperature and the annual
average temperatures resulted in NCEI trend rates of 0.00, showing no increase over time and
low correlations, r(118) = 0.00, p 0.985 and r(118) = 0.09, p 0.347 respectively. Microsoft
FORECAST predicted no difference in the average maximum temperature over the historical
value, a first in this study, and predicted the average temperature to be 15.01 degrees Celsius in
the year 2050, a low 0.17-degree Celsius increase over the historical average. The growing
season precipitation level did increase over time, producing an upward sloping tend line, a NCEI
trend rate of 0.86-centimeters per decade, and a weak correlation of r(118) = 0.30, p<0.001
(NCEI, n.d.b). This trend rate would result in a year 2050 precipitation level of 61.80
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
60
centimeters, a 3.01 increase over the historical average. Microsoft FORECAST predicted the
year 2050 precipitation level will be 67.05, an 8.26-centimeter increase over the historical
average.
Avg Min
Avg Max
Avg Temp
Precip Level
Temp (°C)
Temp (°C)
(°C)
(cm)
-10.33
-0.56
-5.11
20.52
-2.17
7.33
2.56
45.44
-6.48
2.51
-1.98
31.23
-6.50
2.56
-2.00
30.81
1.45
1.36
1.37
5.32
0.26
0.24
0.25
0.96
r(117) = 0.27,
r(117) = 0.26,
r(117) = 0.27,
r(117) = 0.20,
Correlation
p 0.003
p 0.004
p 0.003
p 0.027
2050 Forecast
-5.42
3.49
-0.96
34.20
Table 15: New York Climate Division Ten Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant
Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center
for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical calculations conducted using Microsoft Excel.
Confidence interval based on 119 sample points, standard deviation, and an alpha of 0.05.
New York – CD10Dormant Season
Low
High
Average
Median
Standard Deviation
Confidence Interval
The dormant season for climate division ten provided no weak or strong correlations for
any of the temperature indicators increasing over time. All three temperatures did increase over
time though, with noticeable upward sloping trend lines and NCEI calculated trend rates of 0.11
degrees Celsius per decade (Table 15) (Appendix 12) (NCEI, n.d.b). These trend rates will result
in temperature increases of 0.39 degrees Celsius by the year 2050, or a year 2050 average
minimum temperature of -6.09 degrees Celsius, a year 2050 average maximum temperature of
2.90 degrees Celsius, and a year 2050 average temperature of -1.59 degrees Celsius (NCEI,
n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted a year 2050 value of -5.42 degrees Celsius for the
average minimum temperature, 3.49 degrees Celsius for the average maximum temperature, and
-0.96 degrees Celsius for the average temperature, increases of 1.06, 0.98, and 1.02 degrees
Celsius over the historical averages. The climate division ten dormant season precipitation levels
also increased over time, producing an upward sloping trend line, an NCEI trend rate of 0.28centimeters per decade, and a low correlation of r(117) = 0.20, p 0.027. The NCEI trend rate
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
61
would result in a year 2050 precipitation level of 32.21 centimeters, a 0.98-centimeter increase
(n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted a 34.20-centimeter precipitation level for the year
2050, a 2.97-centimeter increase over the historical level, and a 1.99-centimeter difference from
the NCEI prediction.
Overall, climate division ten resulted in no significant statistical correlations for any of
the monthly climate indicators. Only two annual indicators resulted in weak correlations, annual
average minimum temperature and annual precipitation levels. Annual average minimum
temperatures showed a low 0.06-degree Celsius per decade trend rate, but the annual
precipitation level showed a significant 1.17-centimeter per decade trend rate. Growing season
climate indicators did not produce any significant correlations except for precipitation, which
produced a weak r(118) = 0.30, p<0.001 correlation and a 0.86-centimeter per decade trend rate.
Temperature increases over time during the dormant season just missed the weak correlation
threshold, with 0.11-degree Celsius per decade trend rates. Precipitation levels in the climate
division ten dormant season did not produce a significant correlation for changing precipitation
levels over time.
Maps have been provided in Appendices 13, 14, and 15 to portray whether each of the
annual, growing season, and dormant season climate indicators had increased since 1895 with
statistical significance, correlations of 0.30 or greater. Each map collectively displays the status
of all four New York climate divisions evaluated in this study for each climate indicator. These
maps provide a visual representation of how each climate division relates to each other and with
the geography of New York.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
62
V. Discussion
Conclusions
During the course of this study, several statistically relevant findings have shown New
York temperature or precipitation levels increasing over time. These findings would be relevant
to the future of the New York wine industry if the forecasted changes to temperature and
precipitation exceeded climate requirements of New York grape varieties useful to the wine
industry. The first step in related analysis is to identify these climate requirements for
comparison to study results. As mentioned earlier, Fraga et al. (2014) had identified that mean
surface air temperatures between twelve and 22 degrees Celsius are optimal during the grape
vine growing season and temperatures over 35 degrees Celsius can damage grapevine leaves and
grapes (Fraga et al., 2014). Fraga et al. also identified that higher precipitation levels tend to
result in lower wine grape production, while slight water stress can be beneficial to production
(2014). The New York Vineyard Evaluation System (NYVSES) identified several climate
factors that affect the growth of wine suitable grape varieties, such as the minimum winter
temperature (n.d.). Cold temperatures freeze and damage vine tissues, temperatures above 17.78 degrees Celsius have very low risk to damage tissues, most of the grapes grown in
northern regions can withstand temperatures above -20.56 degrees Celsius, and only the hardiest
varieties can withstand temperature down to –26.11 degrees Celsius, this includes most
American varieties, although these American varieties do not produce wine of the same high
quality as other European hybrids (NYVSES, n.d.). Vine tissues freeze at -2.22 degrees Celsius,
so the length of time between the last -2.22 degree Celsius day to the first -2.22 degree Celsius
day is considered the optimal growing season (NYVSES, n.d.b). A minimum of 160 days is
considered the margin of acceptability, while greater than 170 days is considered satisfactory
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
63
(NYVSES, n.d.). This study was limited to analysis of monthly, annual, and growing season
temperature and precipitation levels. Therefore, climate requirements for wine quality grapes
that require daily weather observations, such as those set by the NYVSES will not be considered
in this study, although they are very important to the evaluation of vineyard climates outside of
this study (NYVSES, n.d.).
To address the first research question, this study determined the following to be minimum
climate requirements for New York viticulture: a minimum temperature greater than -20.56
degrees Celsius, maximum temperature less than 35 degrees Celsius, and growing season mean
surface air temperatures between twelve and 22 degrees Celsius (Fraga et al., 2014; NYVSES,
n.d.). The lowest minimum temperature found during this study of climate data was in climate
division five and nine, both having the same lowest average minimum temperature of -10.56
degrees Celsius, so all climate divisions met the minimum temperature requirement. All climate
division growing seasons also were found to have had growing season mean surface air
temperatures between twelve and 22 degrees Celsius. The highest average maximum
temperature found during this research was 24.44 degrees Celsius within climate division four;
so all climate divisions have met the maximum temperature standard.
In answer to the second research question of this study, the results of this study show the
overall New York climate, as well as sub climates within New York, climate divisions four, five,
nine, and ten, which encompass the New York wine regions, to have changed over time with
statistical relevance. Use of Microsoft Excel to analyze the annual average minimum, annual
average maximum, overall annual average temperature and precipitation levels provided linear
trend lines and rates, which revealed whether these climatic indicators were rising or falling over
time. When these values were further assessed in Microsoft Excel using the statistical
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
64
correlation between the climate changes and the passing of time, the picture of whether New
York climates are changing over time became clear and statistically supported. The New York
State annual temperature and precipitation levels have all increased since 1895 and resulted in
statistically significant correlations. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) calculated the annual minimum and
annual average temperatures to have increased since 1895 at a rate of 0.11 degrees Celsius per
decade and the average maximum temperature to have increased by 0.06 degrees Celsius per
decade (n.d.b). Precipitation in New York had increased by a rate of 1.09-centimeters per
decade (NCEI, n.d.b). Use of the Microsoft FORECAST function provided a prediction that
New York temperatures will continue to increase by 0.94, 0.79, and 0.87 degrees Celsius by the
year 2050 and New York precipitation will increase by 10.49 centimeters by the year 2050.
Breaking down New York into the sub climate divisions that encompass the New York
American Viticultural Areas provided a more granular assessment of the climate that directly
affects the New York wine grape growing regions. All of New York climate division four
temperature indicators assessed in this study revealed rises in temperature over time with strong
statistical correlations. Correlations were considered strong when they were greater than or
equal to 0.5 and were considered weak when the value was between 0.30 and 0.5. The NCEI
calculated each of the temperature indicators to have risen 0.12 degrees Celsius per decade since
the year 1895 (n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted the climate division four
annual average minimum temperature to reach 7.77 degrees Celsius, the annual average
maximum temperature to reach 16.96 degrees Celsius, and the annual average temperature to
reach 12.37 degrees Celsius by the year 2050; an increase of approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius
per indicator more than the historical average. Changes to the climate division four precipitation
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
65
levels did not provide sufficient statistical correlation to classify this climate indicator as either
rising or falling. When climate division four was broken down into separate months representing
the grape vine growing and dormant seasons, the results produced essentially the same results
(Jones et al., 2005).
The temperature indicators for the climate division four growing season, April through
October, all revealed rises in temperature over time with strong correlations. The growing
season rates of increase had risen as well, producing trend rates of 0.17 degrees Celsius per
decade for the average minimum and the average temperature, with the average maximum
temperature increasing at a rate of 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft
FORECAST function predicted temperature indicators to increase by an average of 1.38 degrees
Celsius more than the historical average by the year 2050, with the average minimum
temperature having climbed the most at 1.58 degrees Celsius. Once again, the rise in the
growing season precipitation level did not reach sufficient correlation to classify this climate
indicator as rising or falling. Climate division four dormant season temperature indicators also
all showed rises in temperature with strong statistical correlations. The rate of increase for the
dormant season had increased to 0.22 degrees Celsius per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft
FORECAST function predicted the temperature indicators to increase by an average of 2.03
degrees Celsius over the historical average by the year 2050. The changes in dormant season
precipitation levels did not reach sufficient correlation to classify as rising or falling.
New York climate division five annual temperature indicators all showed increases since
1895 with significant statistical correlation. NCEI calculated all three of the temperature
indicators to have increased by 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade and will increase by another 0.39
degrees Celsius by the year 2050. The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted the year 2050
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
66
average minimum temperature will be 3.98 degrees Celsius, the average maximum temperature
will be 15.36 degrees Celsius, and the average temperature will be 9.68 degrees Celsius,
increases of 1.21, 1.06, and 1.14 degrees Celsius over historical averages. New York climate
division five precipitation levels did not reach sufficient correlation to classify as rising or
falling.
The climate division five growing season analysis revealed temperatures to be increasing
over time, although their correlations have reduced from strong to weak. The rate of increase is
also less, with the average minimum temperature increasing by 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade,
and the average maximum and average temperature changing by 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade
(NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST function predicted all of them to increase over time
as well, with the average minimum temperature increasing to 10.22 degrees Celsius, the average
maximum temperature increasing to 22.54 degrees Celsius, and the average temperature reaching
16.37 degrees Celsius all by the year 2050. These represented 0.88, 0.68, and 0.77 degrees per
decade increases over the historical averages. The change in growing season precipitation levels
did not reach sufficient correlation to classify them as rising or falling. The dormant season was
much the same, with all three of the temperature indicators revealing increases over time with
weak correlations, all correlations above r(117) = 0.40, p<0.001. The NCEI calculated rates of
increase for all three was 0.17 degrees Celsius, resulting in a predicted 0.60-degree Celsius
increase by the year 2050. Microsoft FORECAST also predicted the temperature levels to
increase 1.63, 1.55, and 1.59 degrees Celsius by the year 2050. The dormant season
precipitation levels did not reach sufficient correlation to classify as either rising or falling.
All climate division nine annual temperature indicators increased since 1895 with weak
correlations. The rate of increase for the average minimum temperature and average temperature
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
67
was 0.11 degrees Celsius per decade, while the average maximum temperature increased at a rate
of 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted climate
division nine temperature values to continue to increase as well, with the average minimum
temperature increasing by 1.07 degrees Celsius, the average maximum temperature increasing by
0.67 degrees Celsius, and the average temperature increase by 0.87 degrees, all by the year 2050.
Precipitation levels in climate division nine also increased with a weak statistical correlation,
increasing by 1.27 centimeters per decade (NCEI, n.d.b). The Microsoft FORECAST function
predicted them to continue increasing to a level of 108.31 centimeters in the year 2050, a 12.07centimeter increase over historical averages.
In the climate division nine growing season, only the average minimum temperature and
the precipitation level increased with a sufficient correlation to be classified as increasing over
time, with correlations of and r(118) = 0.42, p<0.001 and r(118) = 0.38, p<0.001 respectively.
NCEI calculated a low rate of increase for the average minimum temperature, 0.11 degrees
Celsius, but the rate of increase for precipitation was significant, 1.02-centimeters per decade
(NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted the average minimum temperature level to
increase by 0.83 degrees Celsius over the historical average by the year 2050 and the
precipitation level in 2050 to be 9.73-centimeters greater than the historical average. The
dormant season analysis for climate division nine returned results similar to what was seen in
climate divisions four and five, all three temperature indicators warmed over time with weak
correlations. All three were calculated to have changed since 1896 by 0.11 degrees Celsius per
decade (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft FORECAST predicted them to change by 1.31, 1.21, and 1.27
degrees Celsius by the year 2050. Dormant season precipitation levels did not reach sufficient
correlation to classify as either rising or falling.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
68
Only two of climate division ten temperature and precipitation levels increased over time
with a significant correlation, the average minimum temperature and the precipitation levels.
The average minimum temperature increased since 1895 by 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade and
the precipitation levels increased since 1895 by 1.17 centimeters (NCEI, n.d.b). Microsoft
FORECAST predicted the average minimum temperature to reach 2.15 degrees Celsius by the
year 2050, a 0.69-degree Celsius change. Precipitation levels are predicted to reach 101.21
centimeters in the year 2050, an 11.22-centimeter change as predicted by Microsoft
FORECAST. The climate division ten growing and dormant seasons were the anomaly of all the
climate divisions, with no changes over time producing correlations of statistical significance for
either the temperature indicators or precipitation. An important result considering that 85% of
New York wine is created with Finger Lakes Wine Region grapes that are encompassed entirely
within this climate division.
Ultimately, this study found New York climate to change over time, particularly average
minimum, average maximum, and average temperatures. Correlations between temperature
indicators and time were significant enough to warrant this conclusion. Precipitation was found
only to have increased with statistical relevance during the analysis of the overall New York
climate, climate division nine annual and growing season levels, and climate division ten annual
precipitation levels. Climate change differences in climate division four and five results
presented the most statistical significance of all indicators analyzed in this study. Climate
division ten is home to 85% of New York wine production and neither the growing season nor
the dormant season temperature indicators presented statistically significant increases (Hira &
Gabreldar, 2013).
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
69
One of the intended outcomes of this study was to determine if forecasted climate change
would alter the future quantity or quality of New York grape growing regions, the third research
question of the study. For the climate divisions that possessed
statistically significant increases in temperature, none of the
increases would jeopardize wine grape growth as compared to the
climate requirements identified during this study. These
temperature increases may actually enhance grape vine growth
and allow the planting of less hardy grape varieties that are more
highly prized for the quality wines they produce. According to
the NYVSES, New York is located at the climatic edge of where
wine grapes can be grown, with the lakes and rivers moderating
surrounding temperatures and protecting vines (NYVSES, n.d.).
As can be seen in Figure 6, New York bodies of water moderate
surrounding temperatures, so temperatures become warmer closer
to their coastlines (NYVSES, n.d). These findings relate directly
to previous research that found countries with warmer climates to
be negatively affected by increases in temperature (Bernetti et al.,
2012; Fraga et al., 2014; Webb et al., 2007). Unlike these warmer
locations, such as Australia or Mediterranean countries where
Figure 6: Maps of New York
depicting percentage of area with
temperatures below -5, -10, and 15 degrees (NYVSES, n.d.).
temperature may be moderately warm to begin with, the New
York climate starts out on the cool side, so any increase in temperature from climate change
could potentially benefit grape vineyards (Bernetti et al., 2012; Fraga et al., 2014; Webb et al.,
2007). Temperature increases could also potentially increase to a level that enables European
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
70
grape varieties to prosper where New York temperatures were historically too cold to support
them. The results of this study are also similar to what Fleming et al. (2015) found where wine
production could increase in cooler climates due to warming temperatures and falls in line with
the Melillo et al. (2014) research that projected an increase in the Northeastern US growing
season length due to less days with frost. In addition, results of this study agree with NYSERDA
(2011) research findings that found the New York wine industry may benefit from long term
climate changes due to its cooler climate.
There are two potential concerns when considering the results of this study. The first is
when warmer temperatures begin to occur later in the year, such as the fall through spring
months in New York, and then a sudden drop in temperature occurs, grape vines have a higher
risk of freeze damage because vines and buds that have not hardened or become acclimatized
(NYVSES, n.d.). This type of situation has occurred in the past, moderate temperatures were
followed by a sudden cold snap that froze vine tissues and caused millions of dollars of damage
to New York vineyards (NYSERDA, 2011). The second concern is that, as Fraga et al. (2014)
identified, higher precipitation levels can lead to lower wine grape production and vineyards
under a slight water stress can be more productive (2014). The overall New York climate, along
with climate divisions nine and ten all showed precipitation levels to be on the rise with
statistical relevance. The point where precipitation levels become concerning is based on many
factors, such as soil drainage and soil type, which were not evaluated during this study, but rising
precipitation remains a concern for vineyards to consider in the future (NYVSES, n.d.).
Results from this study show that the future quantity or quality of New York grape
growing regions may be altered, but it may be altered in a positive way. This study did not prove
the hypothesis that global climate change will reduce New York State wine grape growing
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
71
regions. The results of this study do support an alternative theory that New York grape growing
regions could potentially expand and may gain the ability to incorporate grape varieties that were
previously denied to this region because of their warmer temperature requirements, potentially
enabling production of finer quality wines because of gradually warming temperatures within
these regions. In this way, regarding temperature and precipitation measurements at a climate
division level, this study adequately tested this studies hypothesis. In addition to the temperature
and precipitation climatic indicators analyzed during this study, there are several other
environmental considerations that may affect New York viticulture, such as slope of vineyards,
soil drainage, pH, and soil type, as well as adequate water, sunlight, and air movement
(NYVSES, n.d.). These additional climatic considerations were beyond the scope of this survey,
but would be excellent considerations for future research efforts. Due to the limitations of this
study, such as the limited number of environmental conditions considered, this study does not
evaluate all possible influences of climate on grape growing in New York. In addition to
including other environmental conditions, designing the study to evaluate the geography and
extent of the New York American Viticultural Areas at a more granular level would have
presented a more accurate test of the hypothesis. These limitations do pose an ethical concern
for this study in that this study presents a possible outcome based on its inherent design and
cannot forecast outcomes outside of its design. This study may suggest that climate change may
benefit the New York grape growing regions, but factors outside of the study design may
determine that climate change may not provide benefits to these regions or may counteract the
temperature and precipitation climate indicators evaluated during this study. Although this study
did not prove the hypothesis that global climate change will reduce New York State wine grape
growing regions in the future, considering this study did not analyze these further environmental
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
72
influences on New York Viticulture, this study also did not disprove the hypothesis. It would not
be ethical to suggest New York wine grape growers and other interested parties should not
evaluate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies solely based on the results of this
study.
Recommendations
This study has shown the importance of climate to the economically and geographically
important wine industry. Regardless of this studies outcome, agriculture will always be reliant
on weather and, as such, efforts should continue to strengthen the ability for the farmer to collect
the most accurate and precise weather measurements at the individual farm level. These
measurements should then feed into a collective data warehouse that can leverage the power of
technology to display real time weather data in a geographical information system (GIS)
environment at any level, whether it is at the farm, region, or state. Developing (GIS) based
maps to establish the exact boundaries of all American Viticultural Areas (AVA) would also
provide accessibility and standardization for all research areas and allow climatic measurements
to align with these federally recognized regions. Currently, the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and
Trade Bureau (ATTTB) utilize written map directions to relay AVA boundaries and some of the
reference maps used for these instructions date to the 1960s (ATTTB, 2015). In addition,
developing industry recognized standards for climatic measurements as they relate to viticulture
would enable supporting weather models to be developed and then complete calculations in real
time, allowing for comparison among other regions of interest. Partnerships between all
concerned stakeholders, whether they may be public, private, or government, should be built to
help farmers leverage knowledge and technology. These partnerships would help all agricultural
pursuits understand and adapt to climate change as well as increase productivity and bolster local
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
73
economies. All of these additional recommendations should be publicly accessible, providing
another means to help the public understand and adapt to the affects of future climate change in
New York.
Limitations
There are several limitations with this study, where more information may have created a
more precise future forecast. New York wine grape growing regions are located on the edges of
major waterways and lakes (ATTTB, 2015; NYW, 2014). These large bodies of water may
influence the climate of surrounding areas, much like lake effect snow (NYVSES, n.d.).
Although this study used climatic data for the specific NCEI climatological divisions that
encompass the federally accepted New York wine grape growing regions, it was beyond the
capabilities of this study to utilize more granular microclimate data, such as the higher resolution
temperature and precipitation measurements. Additional microclimate measurement data may
enhance the precision of future studies. In addition, incorporating additional climate indicators
may also reveal hidden correlations, such as assessing the total number of heating or cooling
days, growing season length, or growing season warmth (NYVSES, n.d.). The geographical
extent of historical wine grape growing regions is also not readily available in a useable
electronic format. Having a more modern adaption of the AVA maps would have provided for a
unique look at the growth or reduction of suitable wine grape growing topography and will
enhance future studies with historical land area trend.
This study was concerned with the correlation between temperature and precipitation
levels and the suitability of New York regions to support high quality wine grape growing
conditions. There are several other conditions that are critical to the success of the grape vine,
such as the length of the growing season, amount of available sunlight and thermal energy,
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
74
available soil nutrients, the availability of water, soil drainage, and the movement of cold air
masses (NYSVES, n.d.). Changes to any one of these can significantly affect the ability of grape
vines to prosper in any particular geographic location, regardless of changes to the temperature
and precipitation indicators evaluated in this study. In addition, this study did not identify grape
vine species-specific climate requirements, where the inclusion of these may provide more
accurate determinations of the ability of a region to support their growth, now or in the future.
Future Research
Future research pertaining to New York wine grape growing regions should continue to
focus on identifying climatic indicators that can adequately define and assess the suitability of a
geographical area to support varieties of grapes that produce high quality wine. Research should
also devise forecasting models that can forecast and predict future climatic change and its
associated impacts to New York viticulture and to reliably produce statistically significant results
while incorporating as many climatic conditions as possible. In light of the results of this study,
future research should also evaluate what geographic locations may be able to expand in area or
productivity if colder climates warm sufficiently to support high quality wine producing grapes.
In addition to temperature, evaluating the importance and potential affects of rising precipitation
levels will also help New York wine grape growers adequately prepare for a wetter future if
trends in precipitation found during this study continue.
Keeping in mind the limitations of this study, the results of this study revealed the
potential for locations with cooler climates to experience some benefit from global climate
change associated increases in temperature. This study provided implications for agriculture in
general, not just specifically for the grape growing and wine industries. Crops that rely on
similar environmental conditions as grapes may enjoy the same benefit, which implies that
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
75
thought must be given to potential regional benefits of climate change in addition to negative
outcomes normally attributed to climate change. Although some regional benefits may be
experienced, future research should continue to focus on potentially damaging effects of climate
change by improving the precision of climate forecasts by utilizing higher resolution studies,
both temporal and spatial, incorporating a broader array of environmental measurements, as well
as devising new and unique climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
76
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Appendices
Appendix 1 – New York Climate Division Four Annual Climate Indicators
Appendix 1: New York Climate Division Four Annual Temperature and Precipitation levels for
the years 1895 to 2014 (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel.
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Appendix 2 – New York Climate Division Four Growing Season Climate Indicators
Appendix 2: New York Climate Division Four Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing
Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
85
Appendix 3 – New York Climate Division Four Dormant Season Climate Indicators
Appendix 3: New York Climate Division Four Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant
Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center
for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
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Appendix 4 – New York Climate Division Five Annual Climate Indicators
Appendix 4: New York Climate Division Five Annual Temperature and Precipitation levels for
the years 1895 to 2014 (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
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Appendix 5 – New York Climate Division Five Growing Season Climate Indicators
Appendix 5: New York Climate Division Five Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing
Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
88
Appendix 6 – New York Climate Division Five Dormant Season Climate Indicators
Appendix 6: New York Climate Division Five Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant
Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center
for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
89
Appendix 7 – New York Climate Division Nine Annual Climate Indicators
Appendix 7: New York Climate Division Nine Annual Temperature and Precipitation levels for
the years 1895 to 2014 (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
90
Appendix 8 – New York Climate Division Nine Growing Season Climate Indicators
Appendix 8: New York Climate Division Nine Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing
Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
91
Appendix 9 – New York Climate Division Nine Dormant Season Climate Indicators
Appendix 9: New York Climate Division Nine Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant
Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center
for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
92
Appendix 10 – New York Climate Division Ten Annual Climate Indicators
Appendix 10: New York Climate Division Ten Annual Temperature and Precipitation levels for
the years 1895 to 2014 (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
93
Appendix 11 – New York Climate Division Ten Growing Season Climate Indicators
Appendix 11: New York Climate Division Ten Temperature and Precipitation for the Growing
Season of April through October (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
94
Appendix 12 – New York Climate Division Ten Dormant Season Climate Indicators
Appendix 12: New York Climate Division Ten Temperature and Precipitation for the Dormant
Season of November through March (NCEI, n.d.b). All data obtained from the National Center
for Environmental Information (NCEI). Statistical analysis conducted using Microsoft Excel.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
Appendix 13 – New York Climate Division Annual Climate Indicator Status
Annual Average
Minimum Temperature
Annual Average
Maximum Temperature
Annual Average
Temperature
Annual Precipitation
Level
Appendix 13: Annual Climate Indicator Status. Map of New York depicting climate
divisions (CD) four, five, nine, and ten. Climate divisions depicted in red if their annual
average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, or average temperature
had increased since 1895 with a statistical correlation of 0.30 or higher. White climate
divisions did not increase in temperature or precipitation since 1895 with statistical
significance. Blue climate divisions represent statistically significant increases in annual
precipitation levels since 1895. Weather data obtained from National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI, n.d.b). New York State County Map obtained from
(WXXI, 2002). Statistical analysis performed using the Microsoft Excel CORREL
function (Microsoft, 2015a).
95
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
Appendix 14 – New York Climate Division Growing Season Climate Indicator Status
Growing Season
Average Minimum
Temperature
Growing Season
Average Maximum
Temperature
Growing Season
Average Temperature
Growing Season
Precipitation
Appendix 14: Growing Season Climate Indicator Status. Map of New York
depicting climate divisions (CD) four, five, nine, and ten. Climate divisions depicted in
red if their growing season average minimum temperature, average maximum
temperature, or average temperature had increased since 1895 with a statistical
correlation of 0.30 or higher. White climate divisions did not increase in temperature or
precipitation since 1895 with statistical significance. Blue climate divisions represent
statistically significant increases in growing season precipitation levels since 1895.
Weather data obtained from National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI,
n.d.b). New York State County Map obtained from (WXXI, 2002). Statistical analysis
performed using the Microsoft Excel CORREL function (Microsoft, 2015a).
96
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON NEW YORK WINE GRAPE GROWING
97
Appendix 15 – New York Climate Division Dormant Season Climate Indicator Status
Dormant Season
Average Minimum
Temperature
Dormant Season
Average Maximum
Temperature
Dormant Season
Average Temperature
Dormant Season
Precipitation
Appendix 15: Dormant Season Climate Indicator Status. Map of New York depicting
climate divisions (CD) four, five, nine, and ten. Climate divisions depicted in red if their
dormant season average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature, or average
temperature had increased since 1895 with a statistical correlation of 0.30 or higher. White
climate divisions did not increase in temperature or precipitation since 1895 with statistical
significance. Blue climate divisions represent statistically significant increases in dormant
season precipitation levels since 1895. Weather data obtained from National Center for
Environmental Information (NCEI, n.d.b). New York State County Map obtained from
(WXXI, 2002). Statistical analysis performed using the Microsoft Excel CORREL
function (Microsoft, 2015a).