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CHANGE IS IN THE AIR
A SHORT INTRODUCTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Eric E. van Monckhoven
May 19/20, 2014
Malta
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CLIMATE CHANGE
MAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING
AGRICULTURE & CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE & AGRICULTURE
THE MEDITERRANEAN
ADAPTATION & MITIGATION STRATEGIES
CLIMATE CHANGE
DEFINITIONS
 CLIMATE
Climate is a measure of the average weather patterns
(temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind,
precipitation, and other atmospheric particles) of a
given region over long periods of time.
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CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change refers to a long term shift in the Earth's
climate in which the climate differs radically from the
expected norm.
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE INDICATORS
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Greenhouse gases (emissions, concentrations)
Weather & Climate (precipitation, temperatures,
winds,…)
Oceans (heat, surface temperature, acidity, sea level)
Snow & Ice (Arctic Sea ice, glaciers, lake ice, snowfall,
snow cover)
Society & Ecosystems (streamflow, pollen season,
growing season length, leaf & bloom dates, bird
wintering ranges, etc.)
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATES STATES
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GREENHOUSE EARTH
no continental glaciers / high levels of carbon dioxide and other
greenhouse gases such as water vapor and methane / sea surface
temperatures range from 28 °C in the tropics to 0 °C in the polar regions.
ICEHOUSE EARTH
continental glaciers / less greenhouse gases / cooler temperatures.
The Earth is currently in an icehouse stage; as ice sheets are present on both
poles and glacial periods have occurred at regular intervals over the past
million years.
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE
CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVERS (natural)
 meteorites
 energy output from the sun
 variation in the earth’s orbit and the orientation of its
axis
 volcanic activity and plate tectonics (movement of the
continents)
 albedo
 the greenhouse effect of water vapor and other trace
gases
 photosynthesis
GLOBAL WARMING
DEFINITIONS
 GLOBAL WARMING
Global warming refers to a continuing rise in the
average temperature of Earth's climate system.
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GREENHOUSE EFFECT
The greenhouse effect is a process by which
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere absorb thermal
radiations from a planetary surface and e-radiate
them to the surface and lower atmosphere.
GLOBAL WARMING
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
Dry atmosphere composition
Today, water vapor accounts for 1 to 5% (variable).
It is an important greenhouse gase.
ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
GLOBAL WARMING
GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL
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Certain greenhouse gases (GHGs) are more effective at warming Earth
("thickening the blanket") than others. The two most important characteristics of a
GHG in terms of climate impact are how well the gas absorbs energy (preventing
it from immediately escaping to space), and how long the gas stays in the
atmosphere.
The Global Warming Potential (GWP) for a gas is a measure of the total energy
that a gas absorbs over a particular period of time (usually 100 years), compared
to carbon dioxide. The larger the GWP, the more warming the gas causes. For
example, methane's 100-year GWP is 21, which means that methane will cause 21
times as much warming as an equivalent mass of carbon dioxide over a 100-year
time period.
GLOBAL WARMING
GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) has a GWP of 1 and serves as a baseline for other
GWP values. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for a very long time changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations persist for thousands of years.
Methane (CH4) has a GWP more than 20 times higher than CO2 for a 100year time scale. CH4 emitted today lasts for only about a decade (12
years) in the atmosphere, on average . However, CH4 absorbs more
energy than CO2, making its GWP higher.
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) has a GWP 300 times that of CO2 for a 100-year
timescale. N2O emitted today remains in the atmosphere for more than
100 years, on average.
There is much more heat in the pipeline than what we perceive today.
GLOBAL WARMING
Without the GHG,
Earth's surface would
average about 33 °C
colder below the
present average of 1415 °C
HUMAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING
World Population Growth
GHG Emissions Growth
HUMAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING
HUMAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING
HUMAN-MADE GLOBAL WARMING
CLIMATE CHANGE COSTS
AGRICULTURE & GLOBAL WARMING
Agriculture
+
deforestation
=
the largest
man-made sources
of
GHG emissions
AGRICULTURE & GLOBAL WARMING
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Carbon dioxide
Deforestation - fertilizer production –
irrigation – machinery – transports
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Methane
Cattle enteric fermentation – manure –
rice production – biomass burning
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Nitrous oxide
Fertilizers – manure – biomass burning
AGRICULTURE & GLOBAL WARMING
GHG EMISSIONS BY WORLD REGIONS 1990-2020 FAO
AGRICULTURE
Because there are no written records of the transition period between 8000
and 5000 B.C. when many animals were first domesticated and plants were
cultivated on a regular basis, we cannot be certain why and how some
peoples adopted these new ways of producing food and other necessities
of life.
Climatic changes associated with the retreat of the glaciers at the end of
the last Ice Age (about 12,000 B.C.), may have played an important role.
These climatic shifts prompted the migration of many big game animals to
new pasturelands in northern areas. They also left a dwindling supply of
game for human hunters in areas such as the Middle East, where agriculture
first arose and many animals were first domesticated. Climatic shifts also
led to changes in the distribution and growing patterns of wild grains and
other crops on which hunters and gatherers depended.
(Robert Guisepi)
AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURE IN THE WORLD
 Farmers = 45% of active working population
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Of 1.3 billion farmers only 30 million have access to modern technology (=
responsible for 74% of GHGs emissions in agriculture), and about 1 billion use
manual farming
Over 98 percent of farms are family farms producing at least 56 percent of the
world’s agricultural production.
More than 80 percent of all agricultural holdings measure less than two hectares in
size and are thus managed by smallholder farmers.
Evidence shows smallholder and family farming can be the key to mitigation of the
negative effects of climate change and improving food security.
GLOBAL WARMING & AGRICULTURE
Crops: moderate warming and
more carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere may help plants to
grow faster. However, more
severe warming, floods, and
drought may reduce yields.
Livestock: livestock may be at risk,
both directly from heat stress and
indirectly from reduced quality of
food supply.
GLOBAL WARMING & AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURE
=
among the
most vulnerable sectors
to the risks and impacts
of global climate change, especially when it comes to
water resource availability
GLOBAL WARMING & AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURE & WATER
70 percent of the world’s
freshwater goes toward agriculture,
and it is estimated that this will
increase by 19 percent by the year
2050.
AGRICULTURE & WATER
EUROPE - 88% OF FRESH WATER TOWARD AGRICULTURE
AGRICULTURE & WATER
Malta
CLIMATE CHANGE - EUROPEAN
ISLANDS
European Institute of Environmental Policy (2013)
CLIMATE TRENDS IN THE
MEDITERRANEAN
European Institute of Environmental Policy (2013)
EXPECTED IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE
European Institute of Environmental Policy (2013)
ADAPTATION & MITIGATION
FAO
ADAPTATION & MITIGATION
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ORGANIC FARMING
CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE
AGRO-FORESTRY
NATURAL FARMING
PERMACULTURE
SYNERGISTIC GARDENING
CONSERVATION AGRICULTURE
Intensive agriculture with deep tillage and soil inversion causes rapid
soil deterioration with loss of soil organic matter content. This practice
leads to a decrease of soil biological activity, a damage of the
physical properties and a reduction of crop yields.
Conservation agriculture aims to achieve sustainable and profitable
agriculture through the application of three basic principles: minimal
soil disturbance by conservation tillage, permanent soil cover and
crop rotations.
Sustainable water integrated management
(7 Mediterranean countries)
http://www.aclimas.eu/
Way to go
MEDITERRANEAN POLYCULTURE
THANK YOU
Eric E. van Monckhoven
Free-Lance Consultant
Social Cooperation
Development Aid
[email protected]
+39 3312068969
Note> TREE FACTS
Carbon sequestration, air quality, and climate change
 A tree can absorb as much as 22 kg of carbon dioxide per year, and can
sequester 1 ton of carbon dioxide by the time it reaches 40 years old.
 One large tree can provide a supply of oxygen for two people.
Energy
 Trees properly placed around buildings can reduce air conditioning needs
by 30 percent and save 20-50 percent in energy used for heating.”
 The net cooling effect of a young, healthy tree is equivalent to ten room-size
air conditioners operating 20 hours a day.
Water
 In one day, one large tree can lift up to 375 liters of water out of the
ground and discharge it into the air.
 For every five percent of tree cover added to a community, stormwater
runoff is reduced by approximately two percent.
Note> Further Readings
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Gaia. A New Look at Life on Earth. Lovelock, James (1979)
The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means
for Life on Earth. Flannery, Tim (2006)
Earth Transformed. Ruddiman, William (2013)
Check also the following movie, available on YOUTUBE
Yann Arthus-Bertrand
HOME official website
http://www.home-2009.co