Download Climate change – global warming

Decision analysis and risk management 2015
Case climate change
and a climate policy project URGENCHE
Marjo Niittynen, THL
1
Why is climate change a topic of this
course?
• Climate change – global warming is an ongoing
process which cannot be totally prevented any more
• Climate change is affecting people´s life already now
and increasingly more in the future. Therefore, it is an
important issue for the mankind.
• Climate change is part of political decision making
in all levels from cities and municipalities to
international agreements
2
Outline
• Basics of climate change
– Sources e.g.:
• Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate guide.fi
• Finnish Report on Adaptation to Climate Change (in
Finnish only; Published by Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2012)
• Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC)
• Introduction to a climate policy project
URGENCHE
= Urban reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
in China and Europe
3
Basics of climate change
• The greenhouse effect
Like the roof of a greenhouse, atmosphere functions as
a selective filter: solar radiation gets in but part of
thermal radiation from planetary surface is retained by
atmospheric greenhouse gases
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Source: wikimedia commons
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Greenhouse gases (GHGs)
- According definition, greenhouse gases can absorb
and emit infrared radiation. The most abundant
GHGs on the earth are
• water vapor (H2O)
• carbon dioxide (CO2)
• methane (CH4)
• nitrous oxide (N2O)
• ozone (O3)
- GHGs trap 90% of the thermal radiation emitted by
land and seas
6
CO2 content of the atmosphere
• Before industrialization atmospheric CO2 content
was 280 ppm
• Now 390 ppm, i.e. 40 % increase
• Mankind produces CO2 by
– Using fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas); 7.2 Gton/a
– Utilizing and destroying tropical forests 0.5-2.7
Gton/a
7
CO2 levels from 1958 to 2009
measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii
A graph depicting CO2 levels from 1958 to 2009 as measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Year is on
the x-axis, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (in parts per million) is on the y-axis. The
cause for the yearly rise and fall is the annual cycle of plant respiration. The cause of the
increasing trend is the anthropogenic release of CO2, mainly due to the use of fossil energy
sources.
Source: Scripps CO2 program; wikimedia commons
8
Global warming
• The earth is getting warmer
– on average 0.16 °C per 10 years (during 1970-2012)
– Finland: 0.3 °C per 10 years (during 1959-2008)
• Cannot be totally prevented any more
• Observed temperatures are in agreement with
climate models (see next slide)
9
Observed and modeled surface temperatures (IPCC)
Figure SPM.4. Comparison of
observed continental- and globalscale changes in surface
temperature with results simulated
by climate models using natural and
anthropogenic forcings. Decadal
averages of observations are shown
for the period 1906 to 2005 (black
line) plotted against the centre of the
decade and relative to the
corresponding average for 1901–
1950. Lines are dashed where
spatial coverage is less than 50%.
Blue shaded bands show the 5–95%
range for 19 simulations from five
climate models using only the
natural forcings due to solar activity
and volcanoes. Red shaded bands
show the 5–95% range for 58
simulations from 14 climate models
using both natural and
anthropogenic forcings. {FAQ 9.2
Figure 1}
Source:IPCC
10
Global warming
• Current warming has anthropogenic origin (in
contrast to warm period in 1930-40s).
• Future climate is estimated using climate models
• Global change is easier to predict than changes in
smaller areas
• In Finland, up to years 2030 - 2040 climate can be
predicted in some certainty, thereafter uncertainty
increases
11
Impacts of climate change
•
The aim of international climate policies, max 2 ºC warming, may be
impossible to reach
•
Globally, reduction of GHG emissions has been poor; emissions
increase. However, in 2011 emissions of Finland were that agreed
in Kyoto.
•
Climate change causes risks to local living conditions, economy,
livelihoods, security, health and culture
12
Trend of Finlands´ GHG emissions
Source: Statistics Finland 2013
13
Impacts of climate change / global
warming
• Increased raining at high latitudes, decreased in
subtropical areas
• Glaciers melt, sea levels get higher, ocean currents
change
• Loss of farmland
• Heat waves
• Effects in Finland: high latitudes incl. Finland warm
up more than the earth in average. However, the
effects on humans may not be as severe as in some
other areas
• Worst affected: already poor parts of the world
14
Major health effects due to climate
change (size of impact and confidence on the estimate)
Source: IPCC 2007
Climate policies
Climate policies aim to reduce GHG
emissions. They exist at different levels:
• International
• National
• Local
16
GHG emissions by sector
World 2005
Finland 2003
Traffic
Energy production
Industry
Industrial
processes
Changes of land
use
Agriculture
Waste
Fugitive emissions
Sources: Climate guide.fi; Statistics Finland
17
GHG emissions by sector
Finland 2011
Source: Statistics Finland
18
International climate policies
• Kyoto protocol, ratified by EU-countries 2002
– According to the Kyoto agreement, EU countries
(EU-15) are supposed to reduce their GHG
emissions 8 % from the 1990 emission level during
2008-2012. (www.ymparisto.fi)
• A new international agreement is aimed to be
accepted 2015. It will include also China and US. It
will be implemented from 2020 onwards. (Durban, 2011;
Doha 2012)
19
International climate policies
– EU
• EU aims to reduce GHG emissions at least 20 %
in regard to 1990 level until 2020. In addition, EU
aims to increase the fraction of renewable energy
sources to 20% of end use.
• March 2011: A roadmap towards low-carbon
economy 2050 was published. A cost-effective
pathway to low-emission, climate-friendly and
competitive Europe.
Source: www.ymparisto.fi
20
National climate policies
• Finnish climate policy
– According EU´s internal sharing of emissions, Finland has
promised to retain its GHG emissions during 2008-2012 on
1990 level
– Government has accepted a long-term climate and energy
strategy 6.11.2008. Prerequisities for reaching the aims includes
significant actions on energy efficiency and increased use of
renewable energy. Strategy applies until 2020 and includes
visions up to 2050.
Source: www.ymparisto.fi
21
Climate policy of Kuopio
• Aims
• 40 % reduction in emissions by 2020 in regard to 1990
– Energy production (Haapaniemi)
– Energy efficiency of buildings
– Land use and public transport
– Technological improvement of vehicles
– etc.
• 9% reduction in city´s own use of energy during 2005-2016
– Local vs. national actions
– The fuel choices of Haapaniemi energy plant have the greatest impact
on GHG emissions of Kuopio
Source: Pärjälä E. WP10 Kuopio City. Presentations of the 1st Urgenche workshop. Stuttgart, 2012.
22
Global vs. local aspects regarding
climate change
• E.g. Finland: Finnish climate policies do not specifically
affect Finnish climate, but together with the global
policies they affect slowly.
• However, Finnish climate policies affect on many sectors
and human activities in Finland, for example:
–
–
–
–
traffic and traffic emissions
costs and emissions of heat and power production
air quality of the cities
building stock, etc.
• Therefore, choices which are equal in terms of GHG
emissions may have very different and even opposite
effect on health and wellbeing.
Source: Lectures of professor emeritus Matti Jantunen
23
URGENCHE
• “Urban reduction of GHG emissions in China
and Europe”
•
Research question: What are the most beneficial
ways from public health point of view to reduce GHG
emissions?
– A climate policy project!
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URGENCHE
• EU-project 2011-2014, coordinator University of Exeter
• 17 partners in Europe and China, cities and research
institutes
• Cities
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Basel, Switzerland (200 000 inhabitants)
Kuopio, Finland (93 000)
Rotterdam, Netherlands (550 000)
Stuttgart, Germany (600 000)
Suzhou, China (2.38 - 6.29 milj.)
Thessaloniki, Greece (1 milj.)
Xi’an, China (8.07 milj.)
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Xi’an
Suzhou
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Multiscientific approach including
•
•
•
•
•
•
Health impact assessment
Energy balances of the cities
City planning
Geography
Environmental science
Epidemiology
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Why cities?
• Significant impact on GHG emissions
– Residential (heating, electricity)
– Traffic
– Industry
– other sectors such as agriculture and waste management have
smaller impacts
• Most people (slightly over 50% globally) live in the cities,
 therefore, actions in cities have significant impact on
public health
28
Climate policies and health
•
Climate policies can affect health in many ways depending on which
choices are made e.g. in following sectors
– City planning
– Energy production
– Building regulations
•
URGENCHE took into consideration impacts on both health and
well-being
- Physical and mental health
- Measures of well-being: DALYs (disability adjusted life years),
sleep disturbance, annoyance
- Sosioeconomic factors
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Possible health consequences of climate
policies
• Energy efficient buildings  increase of dampness
problems  asthma, other respiratory problems,
decreased well-being etc.
• Fuel selections of energy production  impact on fine
particle emissions  impact on cardiovascular mortality
• City planning  impacts on people´s exposure to noise
and fine particles, effects on well-being
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URGENCHE: Aims…
•
Optimized GHG reduction policy for each
participating city
–
BAU (business as usual) and two scenarios of
reduced GHG emissons
•
Reduced energy consumption
•
Changes in ways of energy production
•
Impacts of different climate policies on health and
well-being
•
Distribution of effects between different
socioeconomic groups
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URGENCHE: Aims…
•
Methodological aims
- Opasnet-workspace for cities in order to facilitate the
development, application and sharing of city-level climate
policies; also for other cities than those of the project
- Quantitative models and databases functioning in Opasnet
- GIS (geographical information system) based presentation of
data: building stock, population, traffic, land use, emissions etc.
- Everything what is possible is done openly
32
Conceptual model of URGENCHE
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URGENCHE – General results
• Four key findings
– Electric cars  some benefits both for climate and
health, depends on how electricity is produced
– Discouraging private car use  possibly some
benefits both for climate and health
– Increasing housing efficiency  minor benefits for
climate, health benefits depend on good air
exchange
– Small scale biomass burning  may reduce CO2
emissions, but health consequences are negative
due to PM emissions
Source: Hiscock et al. Manuscript in preparation.
34
URGENCHE – General results
• Technological innovations are probably more powerful in
reducing GHG emissions than policies that city
authorities control
• Health and wellbeing impacts were generally small but
varied depending on the city.
– Some cities have already high quality of life and
environmental awareness. E.g.
• In Basel 100% of electricity is renewable
• Kuopio already has effective climate policy
– In some cities the impacts may be larger
• Thessaloniki – new metro may reduce air pollution-related
deaths about 20%
• Xi’an – cleaner technology, electric cars  less noise and
air pollution
35
URGENCHE – specific issues
• 1. Energy production of Kuopio – case Haapaniemi
• 2. Building model (Kuopio and Basel)
36
1. Energy production of Kuopio
• Haapaniemi power plants produce all the district heat
used in Kuopio city area and about 50 % of all the
electricity used in Kuopio
• Fuels used in Haapaniemi (2010)
– Peat 84 %
– Oil 12 %
– Biomass 4 %
• Along with new power plant units the use of biomass can
be increased up to even 70 % by 2020  GHG
emissions would diminish dramatically, what about
health effects?
Source: Pärjälä E. WP10 Kuopio City. Presentations of the 1st Urgenche workshop. Stuttgart, 2012.
37
Energy balance
model
02/05/2017
38
User interface
02/05/2017
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Results of Kuopio city pilot: Increasing the use of biomass in Haapaniemi
CHP plant
1. BAU: Peat 84 %, oil 12 %,
renewable 4 %
2. Increased use of biomass: Peat 18 %,
oil 12 %, renewable 70 %
Amount of
energy per fuel
(GWh)
02/05/2017
40
Health impacts of the increased use of
biomass in Haapaniemi CHP plant
 Calculate total PM2.5 emissions from Haapaniemi
(1. BAU and 2. increased use of biomass)
- amount of energy per fuel (from previous slide) * emission
factor for that fuel; sum up
 Calculate population exposure to PM2.5 due to
emissions from Haapaniemi
 Calculate mortality impacts: attributable deaths due
to PM2.5 emissions from Haapaniemi
02/05/2017
41
Results
• BAU:0.12 (0.02-0.22) attributable deaths / year
• Increased use of biomass: 0.11(0.02-0.21)
attributable deaths / year
• Conclusion: Increased use of biomass in
Haapaniemi CHP plant does not alter the health
effects due the PM2.5 emissions of that plant as
compared to BAU
02/05/2017
Source: Niittynen et al. Poster presentation in ISEE/ISES/ISIAQ-conference, Basel 2013.
42
3. Building model
•
Includes
– Characterization of building stock of a city
•
•
–
•
(http://en.opasnet.org/w/Building_model)
Age, type, size, location, IEQ-factors etc.
City-level (and national) policies concerning building stock
Modeling of energy consumption of buildings
More thorough investigation of the effect of renovation and fuel
policies in Kuopio and Basel
–
–
Kuopio: 3 to 4.5% of houses renovated per year; fuel change in
Haapaniemi (as shown in previous slides)
Basel: 1%, 2% or all buildings built before 1980 renovated
43
Kuopio - results
44
Kuopio - results
Source: Tuomisto et al. Submitted manuscript.
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Kuopio - results
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Building stock in Basel
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Basel - results
Source: Tuomisto et al. Submitted manuscript.
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02/05/2017
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02/05/2017
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Additional information and
publications of URGENCHE
•
In Finnish: Asikainen et al. Kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen
paikallisten vähentämistoimenpiteiden vaikutukset Kuopiossa.
Ympäristö ja terveys 2014/6. (The effects of local measures to
reduce green house gas emissions in Kuopio).
•
Tuomisto et al. Urban building policies, climate, and health.
Submitted.
•
Hiscock et al. Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate
change: findings from the URGENCHE EU-China project.
Manuscript in preparation.
•
Also other international publications exist.
51
Thank you!
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