Download Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Shared Climate Policy

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and
Shared Climate Policy Assumptions
Stephanie Waldhoff
Forestry and Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum
Shepherdstown, WV
2 June 2014
1
Scenario Components
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
Radiative forcing pathways that provide climate outputs
Not designed as reference or policy scenarios – intended to supply climate data
that can be combined with SSPs
What is the climate (radiative forcing) goal?
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
Range of future socioeconomic, technology, and emissions scenarios
Reference scenarios upon which policy targets can be modeled
What could the future look like?
Shared Climate Policy Assumptions (SPAs)
Climate change policy designs
GHG emissions coverage, accession, cooperation
How will the target be achieved?
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Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
SSPs are NEW SCENARIOS being developed with Integrated Assessment models to
explore future reference societal circumstances that exhibit a wide range of
Challenges to adaptation
Challenges to mitigation
SSPs are defined by
Harmonized inputs (demographics and income)
Quantitative, non-harmonized drivers (technological change, investment in human capital)
Narrative storylines (institutions, income distribution, societal values)
IAM outputs are not specified
SSP5:
Conventional
Development
SSP3:
Fragmentation
SSP2: Middle of
the Road
SSP1:
Sustainability
SSP4: Inequality
Harmonized Population and GDP by SSP
http://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb
SSP Narratives
SSP3: Fragmentation
SSP5: Conventional
Development
•
•
•
•
•
•
Rapid economic development
Stabilizing population
Eradication of extreme poverty
Consumerism
High fossil fuel dependency
and universal access to education
and basic services
Highly engineered infrastructure
and ecosystems
•
•
•
•
•
SSP2: Middle of the Road
•
•
•
•
SSP1: Sustainability
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Strong economic development
Stabilizing population
Decreasing income inequality
Focus on sustainable development
Early MDG achievement
Low resource intensity and fossil
fuel dependency
Strong int’l governance and local
institutions
Well managed urbanization
Environmentalism
•
•
•
Current trends continue
Strong economic growth
Moderate population growth
Increasing income convergence
between industrialized and
developing countries
Delayed MDG achievement
Reductions in resource and energy
intensity at historic rates
Environmental degradation
•
•
•
Slow economic growth
Rapid population growth
Continued income inequality
Failing to achieve MDG
High resource intensity and fossil
fuel dependency
Low investments in technology
development and education
Unplanned settlements
Weak int’l governance and local
institutions
SSP4: Inequality
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Stabilizing population
Slow income growth globally
Increasing income inequality
Governance controlled by a few
rich global elites
Limited access to education, basic
services for most populations
Energy tech R&D made by global
energy corporations
Low social cohesion
Adapted from the meeting report of the Workshop on The Nature and Use of New Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Research
https://www.isp.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/Boulder%20Workshop%20Report_0_0.pdf
SSP Reference Radiative Forcings
Mitigating Climate Forcing to RCP Levels
Reference
SSP 1
SSP 2
SSP 3
SSP4
SSP5
X
X
X
X
X
RCP
Replication
8.5 Wm-2
X
6.0 Wm-2
(X)
X
X
(X)
X
4.5 Wm-2
X
X
X
X
X
2.6 Wm-2
X
X
X
X
X
Mitigating Climate Forcing to RCP Levels
Reference
SSP 1
SSP 2
SSP 3
SSP4
SSP5
X
X
X
X
X
RCP
Replication
8.5 Wm-2
X
6.0 Wm-2
X
X
X
X
X
4.5 Wm-2
X
X
X
X
X
2.6 Wm-2
X
X
X
X
X
Moving down a column:
Same socioeconomics, different forcings
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Mitigating Climate Forcing to RCP Levels
Reference
SSP 1
SSP 2
SSP 3
SSP4
SSP5
X
X
X
X
X
RCP
Replication
8.5 Wm-2
X
6.0 Wm-2
X
X
X
X
X
4.5 Wm-2
X
X
X
X
X
2.6 Wm-2
X
X
X
X
X
Moving across a row:
Different socioeconomics, same 2100 forcing
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Varying Emissions Within RF Targets
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Highly Variable Land Use Patterns
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SSP Reference and RCP Radiative Forcings
Six IAM teams are
participating in the SSP
development
Not all models run
every SSP-RCP
combination
Shared Climate Policy Assumptions (SPAs)
SPA designs consistent with SSP storylines and mitigation challenges
Two primary policy attributes (DRAFT!):
FF&I emissions phases
Land Use Change emissions pricing
Fragmentation (no coordinated action)
Full (equal to FF&I)
Accession (regions enter int’l markets)
Partial or delay
Cooperation (transition to global
market complete)
Limited to none
SPA5:
SPA3:
Major delays in
coordinated climate
policy
Delays in coordinated
action increase
challenges
SPA2:
SPA1:
Rapid, coordinated
global climate policy
action
Some delay in global
action
SPA4:
Lower challenges
reflected in rapid
climate policy action
Draft SPA Specifications
SPA3: F3 & LN
•
SPA5: F2 & LP
•
•
FF&I
• Fragmentation until 2020
• Linear transition to global
carbon price by 2040
LUC and FF&I emissions priced
equally in all regions
SPA2: F2 & LD
•
•
SPA1: F1 & LP
•
•
FF&I
• Fragmentation until 2020
• Full regional cooperation
thereafter
LUC and FF&I emissions priced
equally in all regions
FF&I
• Fragmentation until 2020
• Linear transition to global
carbon price by 2040
LUC emissions priced equally with
FF&I emissions by 2030
• Some delay or price limits
possible
•
FF&I
• Fragmentation until 2020
for high income regions
(>$12,600)
• Linear transition to carbon
markets by 2040
• Lower income regions enter
in 2030, linear transition to
global carbon price by 2050
LUC emissions priced at ~0-20% of
FF&I emissions
SPA4: F1 & LD
•
•
FF&I
• Fragmentation until 2020
• Full regional cooperation
thereafter
LUC emissions priced equally with
FF&I emissions by 2030
• Some delay or price limits
possible