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Impacts of Climate change on multimodal transport systems, services and infrastructures MOWE-IT Regional Conference Thessaloniki, 15-16 September 2014 Dr. Georgia Aifadopoulou Research Director Center for Research and Technology Hellas Hellenic Institute of Transport Email: [email protected] Web: www.hit.certh.gr Outline • • • • Climate Change Climate Change and Transportation Impacts on transportation Case in Greece Climate Change Definition(s) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): •A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. •It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. Climate Change Definition(s) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): •A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. EU policies: Green paper on Climate Change EU Green paper 2007, ‘Adapting to Climate Change in Europe – options for EU action’ 1st pillar: Early action in the EU 2nd pillar: Integrating adaptation into EU external actions 3rd pillar: Reducing uncertainty by expanding the knowledge base through integrated climate research 4th pillar: Involving European society, business and public sector in the preparation of coordinated and comprehensive adaptation strategies Significant contributors to CO2 emissions U.S. 186.1 Russia European Union 68.4 127.8 China Canada 57.6 14.9 India Mexico Japan 31.2 15.5 7.8 Kuwait Australia South Africa 7.6 8.5 Source: TIME magazine, 2006 Climate Change and Transportation • A root cause contributing to climate change • A sector facing climate change impacts Source: IPCC, 2007 The Change of Climate Probability of Occurrence Increase in the Mean Increased hot temperatures Decreased cold temperatures COLD Increased extreme hot temperatures AVERAGE HOT Increase in the Variability Increased cold temperatures Increased hot temperatures Increased extreme hot temperatures Probability of Occurrence Increased extreme cold temperatures COLD AVERAGE HOT Source: University of Washington, Program on Climate Change, 2008 The Change of Climate Melting Ice Sea level rise Source: www.educationscotlandgov.uk Source: University of Colorado The Change of Climate 1979-2005 observations show a trend of –8% per decade in Sea Ice extent Source: Arctic Council 2004 The Change of Climate Projected changes in Temperature and Precipitation in the US & Canada 2040 Source: IPCC, 2007 The Change of Climate Mean Air Temperature Difference in Greece 2021-2050 2071-2100 Source: Bank of Greece, 2012 The Change of Climate Mean Minimum Winter Temperature difference in Greece 2021-2050 2071-2100 Source: Bank of Greece, 2012 The Change of Climate Mean Maximum Summer Temperature difference in Greece 2021-2050 2071-2100 Source: Bank of Greece, 2012 The Change of Climate Difference in Number of days with maximum temperature >35 oC 2021-2050 2071-2100 Source: Bank of Greece, 2012 The Change of Climate Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in 2013 Source: National Geographic, 2013 Impacts of Climate Change Source: IPCC, 2007 Impacts on Transportation • “Climate change will affect transportation primarily through increases in several types of weather and climate extremes… very hot days; intense precipitation events; intense hurricanes; drought; and rising sea levels, coupled with storm surges and land subsidence.” • “The impacts …. will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems.” Source: TRB, 2008 Impacts on Transportation • Higher annual temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, more intense storms, etc. will affect all phases of transportation Planning Design Construction Operation Maintenance Impacts on Transportation Damage caused by severe rain and flooding in Maryland, US Source: USDOT, 2006 Flooded areas, Russia Source: Lenkin, 2013 Source: Chery A. Meyer, 2006 Extreme snow, UK Source: Gowthorpe, 2013 Impacts on Transportation Superstorm Sandy, New Jersey, 2012 Source: Sykes, 2012 Impacts on Transportation Flooding in Canada, 2013 Source: Denette, 2013 Tornado in Indiana, US, 2012 Source: NWS, 2012 Tornado in Alabama, US, 2011 Source: NOAA, 2011 Impacts on Transport Operations Climate Change facet Impact on Operations Increases in very hot days and heat waves Decreased rail operating speeds Delays due to probable wildfires Increases in Arctic temperatures Decreased access to ice roads (during winter seasons) Rising sea levels Increased travel disruptions Increases in intense precipitation Increased delay and closures due to flooding events and/or severe storms Increase in hurricane intensity More frequent emergency evacuations Impacts on maritime transport operations Impacts on Transport Infrastructures Climate Change facet Impact on Infrastructure Increases in very hot days and heat waves Railroad track deformities Reduced pavement performance and life Reduced sea ice may offer new maritime shipping routes Increases in Arctic temperatures Damage to roadway integrity due to melting ice Rising sea levels Flooding on coastal facilities Increase in intense precipitation events Increased landslide risk (and/or avalanches) Increase in hurricane intensity Damage to coastal infrastructure and increased risk of failure Mode-specific impacts of Climate Change: Road transport and highways Climate Change facet Impact Shorter snow seasons Annual snow removal expenses lessened Higher summer temperatures Increase rutting and asphalt pavement degradation More frequent freeze Compromise of structural integrity Stronger rain events and flooding Deterioration of roadway embankments and subsurface materials Pavement surface anomalies Greater rainfall More frequent landslides and avalanches Increased danger of traveling Shorter snow seasons Shorten the useful annual life of ice roads and ice bridges isolation of remote communities Mode-specific impacts of Climate Change: Rail Transport Climate Change facet Impact Higher summer temperatures Thermal expansion and contraction of steel rails maintenance and operational difficulties Higher summer temperatures Need to enforce speed restrictions to minimize the risk of buckling potential to derail trains Stronger rain events and flooding Washing out of embankments railroad beds, and landslides Higher winter temperatures Implications of ice melting affect the stability of rails and safety associated with their use Mode-specific impacts of Climate Change: Ports, waterways and maritime transport Climate Change facet Impact Sea level rise Coastal transport-related facilities will need to adjust their operations accordingly (possibly also their location) Decreased rainfalls during summer Decreased channel flow Increased rainfalls during winter Impacting available clearance beneath stationary bridges, creating impassable situations Increased rainfalls during winter Flood conditions may be reached more frequently Higher summer temperatures Increased risk of forest fires intense erosion and higher sediment flow, degradation of river embankments Mode-specific impacts of Climate Change: Air transport Climate Change facet Impact Stronger winds and new wind patterns New flight configurations or runway alignments Increase of average temperature Different settlement of the pavement surface Relocation of landing strip Higher summer temperatures Lengthening of runways to allow aircraft to attain sufficient speed to offset higher temperatures and achieve adequate lift to remain airborne Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study • Analysis of climate in Eastern-Mediterranean and Greece • Risk- and impact assessment ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ Water systems Sea level rise Fishery and aquacultures Agriculture Forestry Biodiversity and ecosystems Tourism Built environment Transport Health Mining • Economics of climate change • Towards a low carbon economy • Conclusions and strategies for managing climate change Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study The 13 climate zones of Greece: • Western Greece • Central and Eastern Greece • Western and Central Macedonia • Eastern Macedonia & Thrace • Western Peloponnese • Eastern Peloponnese • Attica • Crete • Dodekanisa • Cyclades • Eastern Aegean • Northern Aegean • Ionian Source: TRB, 2008 Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study Methodology – Steps for assessing the impacts on the transport sector: •Step 1: Recording of the transport network on the national level and prioritization based on the vulnerability assessment of its attributes (infrastructure and services) •Step 2: Forecasting of future transport demand •Step 3: Impact and cost assessment of climate change for the transport sector •Step 4: Qualitative evaluation of impacts – Suggestions and measures – General conclusions Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study Step 1: Recording of the transport network on the national level (1/2) •Four (4) zones (Western, Central, Eastern και Island) •Recording of road (national and regional) network, rail network and the network of main ports and airports for each zone Transport system characteristics of Greece (source: TRANSTOOLS, 2005) Road network National Regional 1.869,39km 7.664,68km Rail network 2.530km Main airports 43 Main ports 119 Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study Step 1: Recording of the transport network on the national level (2/2) • Network vulnerability per zone Zone 1: Western Greece Zone 2: Central Greece Zone 3: Eastern Greece Percentage (%) of road transport networks National: Rural: National: Rural: National: within 50 meters from 1,41 1,93 0,76 1,53 coast line Rural: 1,92 Zone 4: Islands 6,64 Percentage (%) of rail transport networks within 50 meters from coast line 2,65 0 0,61 0 Number of air ports at sea level 1 0 2 1 Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study Step 2 : Forecasting of future transport demand Passenger transport Road Rail Air Maritime (in billions passenger km / year) (in billions passengers km/ year) (in millions passengers/ year) (in millions passengers/ year) 1,9 2,0 2,3 2,0 38,7 43,9 54,0 70,0 86 Base year 2015 2030 2050 Freight transport Base year 2015 2030 2050 National network Regional network 12,9 14,6 18,6 23,5 8,7 9,9 12, 5 17,2 98 122 130 Road Rail Air Maritime (in billions tons km/year) (in billions tons km/year) (in ‘000 tons/year) (in millions tons/year) 25,6 29,5 38,6 55,1 0,7 0,8 1,0 1,4 130 151,3 194,8 272,9 151 189 267 350 Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study Step 3: Cost assessment of climate change for the transport sector in Greece (1/2): Types of impacts Road & Rail transport •Costs for the redesign of the road and rail networks, which are within a short distance from the coastline, due to sea level rise •Costs for restructuring and repairing of road and rail network infrastructures, due to increased frequency and severity of floods •Savings, due to reduced de-icing works •Costs associated with delays/disruptions of transport services (related to value of time) Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study Step 3: Cost assessment of climate change for the transport sector in Greece (2/2): Types of impacts Maritime transport •Infrastructures: ▫ Costs associated with damages of quays, due to sea level rise ▫ Costs associated with quays elevation •Services: ▫ Costs associated with delays/disruptions of transport services Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study Step 3: Costs due to infrastructures’ restructuring, repairing and maintenance Type of impact Temperature increase Scenario: Road Rail Road Sea level rise Rail Maritime Flooding Benefits due to snowfall reduction TOTALS Road Rail Road Rail 2050 2050 2050 2100 2100 2100 NO MODERATE HIGH NO MODERATE HIGH ADAPTATIO ADAPTATIO ADAPTATIO ADAPTATIO ADAPTATIO ADAPTATIO N N N N N N 150 mil € / year 37 mil € / year 3 bil € flat 0,3 bil € flat 0,6 bil € flat 200 mil € / year -40 mil € / year -0,1 mil € / year 100 mil € / year 30 mil € / year 3 bil € flat 0,3 bil € flat 0,6 bil € flat 120 mil € / year -25 mil € / year -0,07 mil € / year 50 mil € / year 20 mil € / year 3 bil € flat 0,3 bil € flat 0,6 bil € flat 60 mil € / year -15 mil € / year -0,05 mil € / year 346 mil € 225 mil € 115 mil € / year & 4 / year & 4 / year & 4 bil € flat bil € flat bil € flat 300 mil € / year 75 mil € / year - 200 mil € / year 55 mil € / year - 100 mil € / year 40 mil € / year - - - - - - - 300 mil € 200 mil € 85 mil € / / year / year year - 80 mil € -50 mil € / -30 mil € / / year year year -0,2 mil € -0,15 mil -0,1 mil € / year € / year / year 594,8 mil € / year 405 mil € / year 195 mil € / year Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study Step 3: Annual cost of transport delays Scenarios TOTAL ANNUAL COSTS (Road & Rail) (Bil. € / year) 2050 (no adaptation) 9,91 2050 (moderate adaptation) 4,304 2050 (high adaptation) 1,401 2100 (no adaptation) 28,031 2100 (moderate adaptation) 9,311 2100 (high adaptation) 4,204 Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study Step 4: Qualitative impact assessment (example) Expected change / climate event Road transport Higher demand for air conditioning of vehicles Demand for heating Changes in the demand for transport Mean Temperature increase Overheating of vehicles and tire wearing Infrastructur e / Service Type of impact – Costs Negative impact (Increased costs and energy) Positive impact (Reduced costs Service and energy) Cannot be directly estimated. Most probably with negative Service and impact, due to a possible shift Infrastructur of travelers to road transport e (because of low service quality provided by public transport) Negative impact (increased Service costs for vehicles’ and tires’ maintenance) Service Restrictions associated with the periods of works Negative impact (restrictions execution (maintenance and Infrastructur for work usually apply for repairing of infrastructures), e temperatures above 29.5°C) due to personnel's’ health and safety issues Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study Step 4: Policy measures for prevention and handling of climate change impacts (Adaptation) Scenario of moderate adaptation, example of all transport modes Climate change event: Transport policies for: Mitigation Adaptation (all transport means) Implementation of policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions for all transport means, with emphasis on: Α) Improved internal combustion engines with reduced CO2 emissions below 120 gr/km for freight and Mean passenger transport. temperatur Β) Hybrid vehicles. e increase C) Incentives to promote the use of EVs and hydrogen cell fuels, when technically mature (~2015) D) Incentives and infrastructures for increased use of public transport Ε) Demand & mobility management measures (all transport means) Α) Measures for reduced use of private vehicles (focus on vehicles with less than 2 travelers). Β) Measures for the reduction of negative impacts due to the increased use of air conditioning in all types of vehicles (use of existing research results and existing systems, or systems to be developed in the near future). Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study Groups of suggested transport policy measures: • Institutional – Organizational • Technical – Technological • Environmental • Economic Future of transport related research • Institutional – Organizational ▫ Cooperation platforms for stakeholders ▫ Game theoretic approaches for actor analysis • Technical – Technological ▫ Innovation & new materials ▫ Early warning systems ▫ New transport modes • Environmental ▫ Eco-driving & ITS ▫ Sustainability and awareness campaigns • Economic ▫ Dynamic adaptation • Analytical and modeling techniques ▫ Scale / Level of detail of modeling tools ▫ Integrated land use planning ▫ Risk planning & Risk management Recommended readings and sources • • • • • • • • • Bank of Greece, Risks and impacts of climate change on the transport sector (Chapter 2.9) in Environmental, financial and social impacts of climate change in Greece. Report of the Climate Change Impact Assessment Committee, Bank of Greece (2012) G. Giannopoulos, E. Gagatsi, E. Mitsakis, J.M. Salanova Climate Impacts Group, Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments, 2007, 142-143. Climate Impacts Group, Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments, 2007 Walker L., Figliozzi M., Haire A., McArthur J., Climate action plans and long-range transportation plans in the pacific northwest: a review of the state of practice, 2010 Metz et al., Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change (Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 Mote P. and Salathé E., Future climate in the Pacific Northwest, Chapter 1 in The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate (Seattle, Washington: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, 2009 Parry et al., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, United Kingdom: IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 Haire A., Figliozzi M., Walker L., McArthur J., Preparing transportation infrastructures for the consequences of climate change: a review of Canadian and US efforts, 8th International Transportation Specialty Conference, June 9-12, 2010 Transportation and Climate Change: Time to Think, Plan, Mitigate, and Adapt, Webinar, Center for Transportation and the Environment National Broadcast Series, 2008 Transportation Research Board, Transportation Research Board Special Report 290: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation, 2008 Thank you for your attention Dr. Georgia Aifadopoulou Research Director Center for Research and Technology Hellas Hellenic Institute of Transport Email: [email protected] Web: www.hit.certh.gr