Download Greece adaptation plan – GAifadopoulou - mowe

Impacts of Climate change on multimodal
transport systems, services and infrastructures
MOWE-IT Regional Conference
Thessaloniki, 15-16 September 2014
Dr. Georgia Aifadopoulou
Research Director
Center for Research and Technology Hellas
Hellenic Institute of Transport
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.hit.certh.gr
Outline
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Climate Change
Climate Change and Transportation
Impacts on transportation
Case in Greece
Climate Change Definition(s)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):
•A change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g.,
by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the
variability of its properties and that persists for an extended
period, typically decades or longer.
•It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to
natural variability or as a result of human activity.
Climate Change Definition(s)
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC):
•A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability
observed over comparable time periods.
EU policies: Green paper on Climate Change
EU Green paper 2007, ‘Adapting to Climate Change in Europe –
options for EU action’
1st pillar: Early action in the EU
2nd pillar: Integrating adaptation into EU external actions
3rd pillar: Reducing uncertainty by expanding the knowledge
base through integrated climate research
4th pillar: Involving European society, business and public
sector in the preparation of coordinated and comprehensive
adaptation strategies
Significant contributors to CO2 emissions
U.S.
186.1
Russia
European
Union
68.4
127.8
China
Canada
57.6
14.9
India
Mexico
Japan
31.2
15.5
7.8
Kuwait
Australia
South Africa
7.6
8.5
Source: TIME magazine, 2006
Climate Change and Transportation
• A root cause contributing to climate change
• A sector facing climate change impacts
Source: IPCC, 2007
The Change of Climate
Probability
of
Occurrence
Increase in the Mean
Increased hot
temperatures
Decreased cold
temperatures
COLD
Increased extreme
hot temperatures
AVERAGE
HOT
Increase in the Variability
Increased cold
temperatures
Increased hot
temperatures
Increased extreme
hot temperatures
Probability
of
Occurrence Increased extreme
cold temperatures
COLD
AVERAGE
HOT
Source: University of Washington,
Program on Climate Change, 2008
The Change of Climate
Melting Ice  Sea level rise
Source: www.educationscotlandgov.uk
Source: University of Colorado
The Change of Climate
1979-2005 observations show a trend of –8% per decade in Sea Ice extent
Source: Arctic Council 2004
The Change of Climate
Projected changes in Temperature and Precipitation in the US &
Canada
2040
Source: IPCC, 2007
The Change of Climate
Mean Air Temperature Difference in Greece
2021-2050
2071-2100
Source: Bank of Greece, 2012
The Change of Climate
Mean Minimum Winter Temperature difference in Greece
2021-2050
2071-2100
Source: Bank of Greece, 2012
The Change of Climate
Mean Maximum Summer Temperature difference in Greece
2021-2050
2071-2100
Source: Bank of Greece, 2012
The Change of Climate
Difference in Number of days with maximum temperature >35 oC
2021-2050
2071-2100
Source: Bank of Greece, 2012
The Change of Climate
Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in 2013
Source: National Geographic, 2013
Impacts of Climate Change
Source: IPCC, 2007
Impacts on Transportation
• “Climate change will affect transportation primarily through
increases in several types of weather and climate extremes…
very hot days; intense precipitation events; intense
hurricanes; drought; and rising sea levels, coupled with storm
surges and land subsidence.”
• “The impacts …. will be widespread and costly in both human
and economic terms and will require significant changes in
the planning, design, construction, operation, and
maintenance of transportation systems.”
Source: TRB, 2008
Impacts on Transportation
• Higher annual temperatures, changes in precipitation
patterns, more intense storms, etc. will affect all phases of
transportation
Planning
Design
Construction
Operation
Maintenance
Impacts on Transportation
Damage caused by severe rain and flooding in Maryland, US
Source: USDOT, 2006
Flooded areas, Russia
Source: Lenkin, 2013
Source: Chery A. Meyer, 2006
Extreme snow, UK
Source: Gowthorpe, 2013
Impacts on Transportation
Superstorm Sandy, New Jersey, 2012
Source: Sykes, 2012
Impacts on Transportation
Flooding in Canada, 2013
Source: Denette, 2013
Tornado in Indiana, US, 2012
Source: NWS, 2012
Tornado in Alabama, US, 2011
Source: NOAA, 2011
Impacts on Transport Operations
Climate Change facet
Impact on Operations
Increases in very hot days and
heat waves
Decreased rail operating speeds
Delays due to probable wildfires
Increases in Arctic temperatures
Decreased access to ice roads (during winter
seasons)
Rising sea levels
Increased travel disruptions
Increases in intense precipitation Increased delay and closures due to flooding
events
and/or severe storms
Increase in hurricane intensity
More frequent emergency evacuations
Impacts on maritime transport operations
Impacts on Transport Infrastructures
Climate Change facet
Impact on Infrastructure
Increases in very hot days and
heat waves
Railroad track deformities
Reduced pavement performance and life
Reduced sea ice may offer new maritime
shipping routes
Increases in Arctic temperatures
Damage to roadway integrity due to melting
ice
Rising sea levels
Flooding on coastal facilities
Increase in intense precipitation
events
Increased landslide risk (and/or avalanches)
Increase in hurricane intensity
Damage to coastal infrastructure and
increased risk of failure
Mode-specific impacts of Climate Change:
Road transport and highways
Climate Change facet
Impact
Shorter snow seasons
Annual snow removal expenses lessened
Higher summer temperatures
Increase rutting and asphalt pavement
degradation
More frequent freeze
Compromise of structural integrity
Stronger rain events and
flooding
Deterioration of roadway embankments and
subsurface materials
Pavement surface anomalies
Greater rainfall
More frequent landslides and avalanches
 Increased danger of traveling
Shorter snow seasons
Shorten the useful annual life of ice roads and ice
bridges  isolation of remote communities
Mode-specific impacts of Climate Change:
Rail Transport
Climate Change facet
Impact
Higher summer temperatures
Thermal expansion and contraction of steel rails
 maintenance and operational difficulties
Higher summer temperatures
Need to enforce speed restrictions to minimize
the risk of buckling  potential to derail trains
Stronger rain events and
flooding
Washing out of embankments railroad beds, and
landslides
Higher winter temperatures
Implications of ice melting affect the stability of
rails and safety associated with their use
Mode-specific impacts of Climate Change:
Ports, waterways and maritime transport
Climate Change facet
Impact
Sea level rise
Coastal transport-related facilities will need to
adjust their operations accordingly (possibly also
their location)
Decreased rainfalls during
summer
Decreased channel flow
Increased rainfalls during
winter
Impacting available clearance beneath stationary
bridges, creating impassable situations
Increased rainfalls during
winter
Flood conditions may be reached more frequently
Higher summer temperatures
Increased risk of forest fires  intense erosion
and higher sediment flow, degradation of river
embankments
Mode-specific impacts of Climate Change:
Air transport
Climate Change facet
Impact
Stronger winds and new wind
patterns
New flight configurations or runway alignments
Increase of average
temperature
Different settlement of the pavement surface
Relocation of landing strip
Higher summer temperatures
Lengthening of runways to allow aircraft to attain
sufficient speed to offset higher temperatures and
achieve adequate lift to remain airborne
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
• Analysis of climate in Eastern-Mediterranean and Greece
• Risk- and impact assessment
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Water systems
Sea level rise
Fishery and aquacultures
Agriculture
Forestry
Biodiversity and ecosystems
Tourism
Built environment
Transport
Health
Mining
• Economics of climate change
• Towards a low carbon economy
• Conclusions and strategies for managing climate change
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
The 13 climate zones of Greece:
• Western Greece
• Central and Eastern Greece
• Western and Central Macedonia
• Eastern Macedonia & Thrace
• Western Peloponnese
• Eastern Peloponnese
• Attica
• Crete
• Dodekanisa
• Cyclades
• Eastern Aegean
• Northern Aegean
• Ionian
Source: TRB, 2008
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
Methodology – Steps for assessing the impacts on the transport sector:
•Step 1: Recording of the transport network on the national level and
prioritization based on the vulnerability assessment of its attributes
(infrastructure and services)
•Step 2: Forecasting of future transport demand
•Step 3: Impact and cost assessment of climate change for the transport
sector
•Step 4: Qualitative evaluation of impacts – Suggestions and measures –
General conclusions
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
Step 1: Recording of the transport network on the national level (1/2)
•Four (4) zones (Western, Central, Eastern και Island)
•Recording of road (national and regional) network, rail network and the
network of main ports and airports for each zone
Transport system characteristics of Greece
(source: TRANSTOOLS, 2005)
Road network
National
Regional
1.869,39km
7.664,68km
Rail network
2.530km
Main airports
43
Main ports
119
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
Step 1: Recording of the transport network on the national level (2/2)
• Network vulnerability per zone
Zone 1: Western
Greece
Zone 2: Central
Greece
Zone 3: Eastern
Greece
Percentage (%) of road
transport networks
National: Rural: National: Rural: National:
within 50 meters from
1,41
1,93
0,76
1,53
coast line
Rural:
1,92
Zone 4:
Islands
6,64
Percentage (%) of rail
transport networks
within 50 meters from
coast line
2,65
0
0,61
0
Number of air ports at
sea level
1
0
2
1
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
Step 2 : Forecasting of future transport demand
Passenger
transport
Road
Rail
Air
Maritime
(in billions passenger km / year)
(in billions
passengers km/
year)
(in millions
passengers/
year)
(in millions
passengers/
year)
1,9
2,0
2,3
2,0
38,7
43,9
54,0
70,0
86
Base year
2015
2030
2050
Freight transport
Base year
2015
2030
2050
National
network
Regional
network
12,9
14,6
18,6
23,5
8,7
9,9
12, 5
17,2
98
122
130
Road
Rail
Air
Maritime
(in billions
tons
km/year)
(in billions
tons km/year)
(in ‘000 tons/year)
(in millions
tons/year)
25,6
29,5
38,6
55,1
0,7
0,8
1,0
1,4
130
151,3
194,8
272,9
151
189
267
350
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
Step 3: Cost assessment of climate change for the transport sector in Greece
(1/2): Types of impacts
Road & Rail transport
•Costs for the redesign of the road and rail networks, which are within a short
distance from the coastline, due to sea level rise
•Costs for restructuring and repairing of road and rail network infrastructures,
due to increased frequency and severity of floods
•Savings, due to reduced de-icing works
•Costs associated with delays/disruptions of transport services (related to
value of time)
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
Step 3: Cost assessment of climate change for the transport sector in Greece
(2/2): Types of impacts
Maritime transport
•Infrastructures:
▫ Costs associated with damages of quays, due to sea level rise
▫ Costs associated with quays elevation
•Services:
▫ Costs associated with delays/disruptions of transport services
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
Step 3: Costs due to infrastructures’ restructuring, repairing and maintenance
Type of impact
Temperature
increase
Scenario:
Road
Rail
Road
Sea level rise
Rail
Maritime
Flooding
Benefits due to
snowfall
reduction
TOTALS
Road
Rail
Road
Rail
2050
2050
2050
2100
2100
2100
NO
MODERATE
HIGH
NO
MODERATE
HIGH
ADAPTATIO ADAPTATIO ADAPTATIO ADAPTATIO ADAPTATIO ADAPTATIO
N
N
N
N
N
N
150 mil €
/ year
37 mil € /
year
3 bil € flat
0,3 bil €
flat
0,6 bil €
flat
200 mil €
/ year
-40 mil € /
year
-0,1 mil €
/ year
100 mil €
/ year
30 mil € /
year
3 bil € flat
0,3 bil €
flat
0,6 bil €
flat
120 mil €
/ year
-25 mil € /
year
-0,07 mil
€ / year
50 mil € /
year
20 mil € /
year
3 bil € flat
0,3 bil €
flat
0,6 bil €
flat
60 mil € /
year
-15 mil € /
year
-0,05 mil
€ / year
346 mil € 225 mil € 115 mil €
/ year & 4 / year & 4 / year & 4
bil € flat
bil € flat
bil € flat
300 mil €
/ year
75 mil € /
year
-
200 mil €
/ year
55 mil € /
year
-
100 mil €
/ year
40 mil € /
year
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
300 mil € 200 mil € 85 mil € /
/ year
/ year
year
- 80 mil € -50 mil € / -30 mil € /
/ year
year
year
-0,2 mil € -0,15 mil -0,1 mil €
/ year
€ / year
/ year
594,8 mil
€ / year
405 mil €
/ year
195 mil €
/ year
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
Step 3: Annual cost of transport delays
Scenarios
TOTAL ANNUAL COSTS (Road & Rail)
(Bil. € / year)
2050 (no adaptation)
9,91
2050 (moderate adaptation)
4,304
2050 (high adaptation)
1,401
2100 (no adaptation)
28,031
2100 (moderate adaptation)
9,311
2100 (high adaptation)
4,204
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
Step 4: Qualitative impact assessment (example)
Expected change
/ climate event
Road transport
Higher demand for air
conditioning of vehicles
Demand for heating
Changes in the demand for
transport
Mean
Temperature
increase
Overheating of vehicles and
tire wearing
Infrastructur
e / Service
Type of impact – Costs
Negative impact (Increased
costs and energy)
Positive impact (Reduced costs
Service
and energy)
Cannot be directly estimated.
Most probably with negative
Service and
impact, due to a possible shift
Infrastructur
of travelers to road transport
e
(because of low service quality
provided by public transport)
Negative impact (increased
Service
costs for vehicles’ and tires’
maintenance)
Service
Restrictions associated with
the periods of works
Negative impact (restrictions
execution (maintenance and Infrastructur
for work usually apply for
repairing of infrastructures), e
temperatures above 29.5°C)
due to personnel's’ health
and safety issues
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
Step 4: Policy measures for prevention and handling of climate change
impacts (Adaptation)
Scenario of moderate adaptation, example of all transport modes
Climate
change
event:
Transport policies for:
Mitigation
Adaptation
(all transport means)
Implementation of policies for
reducing greenhouse gas emissions
for all transport means, with
emphasis on:
Α) Improved internal combustion
engines with reduced CO2 emissions
below 120 gr/km for freight and
Mean
passenger transport.
temperatur Β) Hybrid vehicles.
e increase C) Incentives to promote the use of
EVs and hydrogen cell fuels, when
technically mature (~2015)
D) Incentives and infrastructures
for increased use of public
transport
Ε) Demand & mobility management
measures
(all transport means)
Α) Measures for reduced use of private
vehicles (focus on vehicles with less than 2
travelers).
Β) Measures for the reduction of negative
impacts due to the increased use of air
conditioning in all types of vehicles (use of
existing research results and existing
systems, or systems to be developed in the
near future).
Bank of Greece: Climate Change Impacts Study
Groups of suggested transport policy measures:
• Institutional – Organizational
• Technical – Technological
• Environmental
• Economic
Future of transport related research
• Institutional – Organizational
▫ Cooperation platforms for stakeholders
▫ Game theoretic approaches for actor analysis
• Technical – Technological
▫ Innovation & new materials
▫ Early warning systems
▫ New transport modes
• Environmental
▫ Eco-driving & ITS
▫ Sustainability and awareness campaigns
• Economic
▫ Dynamic adaptation
• Analytical and modeling techniques
▫ Scale / Level of detail of modeling tools
▫ Integrated land use planning
▫ Risk planning & Risk management
Recommended readings and sources
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Bank of Greece, Risks and impacts of climate change on the transport sector (Chapter 2.9) in
Environmental, financial and social impacts of climate change in Greece. Report of the Climate Change
Impact Assessment Committee, Bank of Greece (2012) G. Giannopoulos, E. Gagatsi, E. Mitsakis, J.M.
Salanova
Climate Impacts Group, Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State
Governments, 2007, 142-143. Climate Impacts Group, Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for
Local, Regional, and State Governments, 2007
Walker L., Figliozzi M., Haire A., McArthur J., Climate action plans and long-range transportation plans in
the pacific northwest: a review of the state of practice, 2010
Metz et al., Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change (Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA: IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
Mote P. and Salathé E., Future climate in the Pacific Northwest, Chapter 1 in The Washington Climate
Change Impacts Assessment: Evaluating Washington's Future in a Changing Climate (Seattle, Washington:
University of Washington Climate Impacts Group, 2009
Parry et al., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II
to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, United
Kingdom: IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
Haire A., Figliozzi M., Walker L., McArthur J., Preparing transportation infrastructures for the
consequences of climate change: a review of Canadian and US efforts, 8th International Transportation
Specialty Conference, June 9-12, 2010
Transportation and Climate Change: Time to Think, Plan, Mitigate, and Adapt, Webinar, Center for
Transportation and the Environment National Broadcast Series, 2008
Transportation Research Board, Transportation Research Board Special Report 290: Potential Impacts of
Climate Change on U.S. Transportation, 2008
Thank you for your attention
Dr. Georgia Aifadopoulou
Research Director
Center for Research and Technology Hellas
Hellenic Institute of Transport
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.hit.certh.gr