Download The 2015 Paris Agreement

The 2015 Paris Agreement
A preliminary assessment
• On December 12, 2015, 195 countries signed
a global agreement on climate change.
• Here I provide a first-sight, very preliminary
assessment of the agreement.
The key document
The key document is the “Adoption of the Paris
Agreement”, downlodable at:
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng
/l09r01.pdf
Here I discuss only the final part of the document
(pages 21-32) containing the text of the adopted
agreement
Objectives
Article 2 contains the statement of purposes of
the agreement, namely:
(a) to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above
pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly
reduce the risks and impacts of climate change;
(b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate
change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas
emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food
production;
(c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low
greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.
Given the target….
…the correct process would be:
• Given the objective of 1.5° C, compute the CO2
concentration which is consistent with such
objective
• Compare the forecasted “business as usual”
concentration with the target level defined above
and compute the necessary abatement in net
emissions
• Determine how the abatement effort is allocated
to different countries. Instead:
Mitigation
Articles 4, 5 and 6 contain the main provisions regarding
mitigation.
The key point is (Art. 4(1))
Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas
emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking
will take longer for developing country Parties, and to
undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance
with best available science, so as to achieve a balance
between anthropogenic emissions by sources and
removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second
half of this century.
Nationally determined contributions
Art.4 (2,3)
Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain
successive nationally determined contributions that it
intends to achieve. Parties shall pursue domestic
mitigation measures with the aim of achieving the
objectives of such contributions.
Each Party’s successive (each 5 years or less) nationally
determined contribution will represent a progression
beyond the Party’s then current nationally determined
contribution and reflect its highest possible ambition..
That is to say…
…countries must each 5 years (or more often
if they want) announce future targets which
are no less ambitious than those stated 5
years before (or the previous time they
announced a target).
Flexible Mechanisms
Article 6 deals with international cooperation and
flexible mechanisms.
6(1) says
Parties recognize that some Parties choose to
pursue voluntary cooperation in the
implementation of their nationally determined
contributions to allow for higher ambition in their
mitigation and adaptation actions and to
promote sustainable development and
environmental integrity.
6(3) says
The use of internationally transferred
mitigation outcomes to achieve nationally
determined contributions under this
Agreement shall be voluntary and authorized
by participating Parties.
In Kyoto Protocol flexible mechanisms where
part of the agreement.
Adaptation
Art 7 (2):
Parties recognize that adaptation is a global
challenge faced by all with local, subnational,
national, regional and international dimensions,
and that it is a key component of and makes a
contribution to the long-term global response to
climate change to protect people, livelihoods and
ecosystems, taking into account the urgent and
immediate needs of those developing country
Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the
adverse effects of climate change.
Money
Art. 9 (1)
Developed country Parties shall provide financial resources
to assist developing country Parties with respect to both
mitigation and adaptation in continuation of their existing
obligations under the Convention.
Art. 9 (5)
Developed country Parties shall biennially communicate
indicative quantitative and qualitative information
related to paragraphs 1 and 3 of this Article, as applicable,
including, as available, projected levels of public
financial resources to be provided to developing country
Parties.
Transparency…
Art. 13
Countries are required to provide information
concerning:
(a) A national inventory report of anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by sinks of
greenhouse gases, prepared using good practice
methodologies accepted by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and
agreed upon by the Conference of the Parties
serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris
Agreement;
(b) Information necessary to track progress
made in implementing and achieving its
nationally determined contribution under
Article 4.
• An expert commission will check this
communications, commenting on how they
are consistent with the transparency and the
accountability required
…and sanctions
Art 15 deals with sanctions. They simply do
not exist. The only mechanism which exerts
some ex post control
shall consist of a committee that shall be
expert-based and facilitative in nature and
function in a manner that is transparent, nonadversarial and non-punitive.
Weak final Remarks
The main value of the Agreement is political.
- On the one hand, it was impossible, in the face of
public opinion, to leave Paris without any
agreement on climate change. From this point of
view, the 1.5° C target is mainly a political
message
- On the other hand, countries with a genuine
commitment to climate policy at least tried to
establish some common ground for future, more
substantial, agreements
• Voluntary commitments are obviously weak,
but, by making the first step, countries
genuinely committed may at least set an
example and provide experience to other
countries (“Look, it is possible to reduce
emissions without disrupting the economy!”)
• It is better a weak agreement today, with local
“enthusiasts”, than a strong, global agreement
in 2070…(or not?)